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Wednesday November 21, 2007 - 14:47:53 GMT

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Euro rises to record high against Dollar

News and Events:

The Dollar slid to a record low versus the Euro on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve said a housing slump, tighter credit conditions and high oil prices would likely slow US economic growth in 2008. The forecast was released along with minutes from the Fed's October policy meeting, which revealed officials' decision to cut rates was a close call following a debate on whether to await more evidence that a housing slump was curbing growth. The Fed's forecast for US growth to slow next year to between 1.8% and 2.5%, sharply down from the 2.5 to 2.75% forecast in June, suggested to some investors that the Fed will have to cut benchmark lending rates again in December or earlier to prevent the economy from stalling further. Analyst said "whether it happens tonight or at the next meeting, the Fed looks set to cut rates," and "I think that means the euro is probably headed to 1.5000 by year end." The EurUsd extended gains, rising 1.12% to a record 1.4852. The Euro was on track for its biggest one-day gain versus the Dollar in a year and last traded at 1.4832. The Dollar inched higher versus the Japanese currency, rebounding from earlier losses, as US stocks rallied at the end of the session. The UsdJpy last traded 0.07% lower at 109.74. The Fed's next policy meeting is on Dec. 11. Markets expect a 0.25 cut in the federal funds rate. The central bank cut the funds rate in October by a 0.25 to 4.50% after slashing it by half a point in September. Demand for the Dollar started to fall earlier in the session after a report showed US housing permits fell 6.6% on October to a 14-year low. Analyst said "FX dealers are looking for any reason to sell Dollars," adding "It does show how dollar-negative sentiment is."


Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

12:00 USD Mortgage market change previously 5.5%

13:30 USD Initial claims 330k vs 339k
13:30 USD Jobless continual claims 2’570k vs 2’568k

13:30 CAD Sept Retail Sales 0.1% vs 0.7% (MoM)
13:30 CAD Sept Retail Sales ex-autos 0.3% vs 0.3% (MoM)

15:00 USD Oct Leading Indicators -0.3% vs 0.3%
15:00 USD Nov University of Michigan Sentiment 75 vs 80.9

The Risk Today:

EurUsd Euro remains in a positive trend. It set new record high yesterday at 1.4852. Last week, it found support on 1.4520 and consolidated around 1.4650 (initial support). On the downside, only a return below 1.4500 and further drop to 1.4280 former resistance would threaten the uptrend. This could open the way down toward 1.4000 nearby support and 1.4125 trendline support. Initial support holds 1.4650 strong support.

GbpUsd Following early November largest drop since October 22nd, Cable found support last week around 2.0400. On the upside, 2.1161 high (Friday 9th) marks the strong resistance before putting 2.1355 May 11th 1981 into focus. Initial resistance holds 2.0844 Nov 14th high. On the downside, a strong return below 2.0525 may open a market reversal. But it would need renewed pressure below 2.0200 and further weakness toward 2.0000 psychological levels to validate a downtrend. Initial support holds 2.0525.

UsdJpy Trend remains bearish. Last week pressure pushed toward 111.60 (August 17 low) and posted a new ultimate 108.87 low this morning. Initial support holds 109.55 (Nov 13th low). On the upside, market needs a return over 114 and 116 to undermine the actual downtrend. This may open the way toward 117.63 resistance. Initial resistance holds 111.75.

UsdChf Downtrend remains heavy. It posted a fresh low 1.1027 this morning, breaking yesterday toward 12-year low 1.1110 from April 1995. Extreme target holds 1.1000 key level. Initial resistance holds 1.1300 (12th Nov) high. It would also need a return over 1.1500 and 1.1640 level to relieve actual bear threat.

Resistance and Support:

1.5000 K 2.1161 T 117.63 S 1.1640 T
1.4970 S 2.0922 S 114.00 P 1.1500 P
1.4852 M 2.0844 S 111.75 M 1.1300 S
1.4820 2.0645 109.75 1.1070
1.4650 S 2.0525 M 109.57 M 1.1055 M
1.4520 S 2.0200 S 109.13 T 1.1000 K
1.4500 K 2.0000 P 108.77 S 1.0900 M
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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