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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update U.S. Market
Dow -144 S&P -18.9 NASDAQ -41.5
- Equity Indices around the
world lose ground as the flight to safety intensifies. Credit market
worries persist after the FOMC minutes, outlook and comments from Treasury
Sec. Paulson exacerbated fears that the weakness in housing has yet to
fully filter through to the rest of the economy. Credit market gauges are
signaling panic in certain areas approaching levels seen this summer.
LIBOR rates continue to tick higher despite the 10-year yield trading below
4% for the first time in more than 2 years and the 2-year dipping below 3%.
2-year year swap spreads widened out to their highest levels since 2001.
Expectations for Fed rate cuts are climbing. The Jan fed fund future fully
prices in another 25bp cut this year and is beginning to price in a 4.00%
fed funds rate. Looking out into 2008, the April contract puts better than
70% odds of at 3.75% fed funds rate. As usual money continues to flow from
financial stocks that can be tied to mortgage markets in any way. XLF -2.
5% C -2% GS -5% FNM -1% FRE -3.4% ABK -5.6% MBI -6.7% AIG -6% The major
indices have moved to new lows brining August lows into play. Decliners
lead advancers on the NYSE by a 5:1 margin while the VIX has climbed back
above 27. Energy prices are not helping as Jan Crude remains above $98
post weekly inventory data. Heating oil futures made new all-time highs
trading above $2.70. Airline stocks are down sharply across the board
helping the Dow Jones Transports give back another 1.5%, which is now well
below August levels. Dec gold is up another $6.50 at $797, but well off
its best levels of $808 made when the Euro moved out to another new all-
time high at 1.4856 in the overnight session.
- In currencies,
credit concerns and risk aversion remained the focus of global capital
markets and its impact is again filtering into equities and Forex. Bond
Dealers noting that Liquidity remains very poor in most fixed-income
products. In terms of liquidity conditions, the European Covered Bond
council stated that the interbank market making in covered bonds will be
suspended until Nov 26th. The LIBOR fixing rates continue to drift higher
with the 3-month Sterling breaking above the 6.52 level for 2-month highs.
Unwinding of carry-trade currencies propelled the USD/JPY to break
its August lows of 108.93. EUR/JPY again tested the 160 handle and GBP/JPY
was firmly below its 100-week moving average of 224.84. Technical damage on
related charts suggested that further unwind could continue. One cross to
focus on would be the EUR/CHF cross which Dealers sees 18-month trend line
support at 1.6310 level. The EUR/USD hit fresh all-time highs at 1.4856.
Again, the German Fin Min reiterates the view of no concerns over strong
Euro. The minister noted that is difficult to define the 'threshold of
pain' in FX level. Lastly he maintained the view that the Euro rise has not
hurt German exporters thus far. Canadian Fin Min expressed less concerned
about the CAD level, but remains concerned. The CAD is about 9% off of its
recent high against the USD of 0.9055. CAD softened after its Sept retail
sales came in below expectations.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 19 June 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts
Wed 20 June 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 June 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 22 June 2018
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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