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Wednesday November 21, 2007 - 17:19:33 GMT
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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update

U.S. Market Update

Dow -144 S&P -18.9 NASDAQ -41.5

- Equity Indices around the world lose ground as the flight to safety intensifies. Credit market worries persist after the FOMC minutes, outlook and comments from Treasury Sec. Paulson exacerbated fears that the weakness in housing has yet to fully filter through to the rest of the economy. Credit market gauges are signaling panic in certain areas approaching levels seen this summer. LIBOR rates continue to tick higher despite the 10-year yield trading below 4% for the first time in more than 2 years and the 2-year dipping below 3%. 2-year year swap spreads widened out to their highest levels since 2001. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are climbing. The Jan fed fund future fully prices in another 25bp cut this year and is beginning to price in a 4.00% fed funds rate. Looking out into 2008, the April contract puts better than 70% odds of at 3.75% fed funds rate. As usual money continues to flow from financial stocks that can be tied to mortgage markets in any way. XLF -2. 5% C -2% GS -5% FNM -1% FRE -3.4% ABK -5.6% MBI -6.7% AIG -6% The major indices have moved to new lows brining August lows into play. Decliners lead advancers on the NYSE by a 5:1 margin while the VIX has climbed back above 27. Energy prices are not helping as Jan Crude remains above $98 post weekly inventory data. Heating oil futures made new all-time highs trading above $2.70. Airline stocks are down sharply across the board helping the Dow Jones Transports give back another 1.5%, which is now well below August levels. Dec gold is up another $6.50 at $797, but well off its best levels of $808 made when the Euro moved out to another new all- time high at 1.4856 in the overnight session.

- In currencies, credit concerns and risk aversion remained the focus of global capital markets and its impact is again filtering into equities and Forex. Bond Dealers noting that Liquidity remains very poor in most fixed-income products. In terms of liquidity conditions, the European Covered Bond council stated that the interbank market making in covered bonds will be suspended until Nov 26th. The LIBOR fixing rates continue to drift higher with the 3-month Sterling breaking above the 6.52 level for 2-month highs.

Unwinding of carry-trade currencies propelled the USD/JPY to break its August lows of 108.93. EUR/JPY again tested the 160 handle and GBP/JPY was firmly below its 100-week moving average of 224.84. Technical damage on related charts suggested that further unwind could continue. One cross to focus on would be the EUR/CHF cross which Dealers sees 18-month trend line support at 1.6310 level. The EUR/USD hit fresh all-time highs at 1.4856. Again, the German Fin Min reiterates the view of no concerns over strong Euro. The minister noted that is difficult to define the 'threshold of pain' in FX level. Lastly he maintained the view that the Euro rise has not hurt German exporters thus far. Canadian Fin Min expressed less concerned about the CAD level, but remains concerned. The CAD is about 9% off of its recent high against the USD of 0.9055. CAD softened after its Sept retail sales came in below expectations.


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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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Mon 10 Sep 2018
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A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
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Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
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