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Thursday November 22, 2007 - 13:47:29 GMT

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Dollar hits record low against major as Forex market sees

News and Events:

The Yen surged to its highest level against the Dollar in more than two years on Wednesday as investors pared back exposure to risky trades on worries about credit market losses and the health of the US economy. The dollar also hit a record low against the Euro for the second straight day. The UsdJpy fell below 109 for the first time since June 2005 as global stocks weakened and oil prices pushed toward $100 a barrel. The low-yielding Japanese currency tends to do well in times of risk aversion because investors unwind carry trades that use cheaply borrowed Yen to buy higher-yielding currencies. The UsdJpy fell as low as 108.25 and last traded at 108.36 down 1.26%. The EurJpy was 1.1% weaker at 160.99 after touching 160.08 low yesterday. UsdChf hit an all-time low for a second straight session, dipping to 1.1015 -0.41%. EurUsd hit a record high of 1.4870 before easing to 1.4856 up 0.16%. Meanwhile, AudUsd fell 2.47% to 0.8689, while EurGbp hit a four-and-a-half-year high at 0.7213 before closing at 0.7201 +0.31%. The demand for safer assets and light volume "puts euro-dollar at 1.5000 in the crosshairs," said Analyst. The euro has gained more than 8% on the Dollar since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in mid-September. The Fed has cut rates by 75 basis points so far this year, and futures markets have fully priced in another 25 basis points easing at the US central bank's next policy meeting next month. A weak Dollar also helped push US light crude to a record high of 99.30 per barrel yesterday. Risk appetites began to weaken on Tuesday after the second-largest US mortgage finance company, Freddie Mac, reported a record loss, prompting fears it would be unable to provide liquidity to an already struggling home loan market. Forex dealers said further sharp currency moves are likely in the near term, with US trading desks closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday and likely to be thinly staffed on Friday.


Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

00:00 EUR US Thanksgiving holiday

09:00 EUR Sept Euro zone Current account +€ 3b vs €0.7b

15:30 GBP ECB’s Trichet on French TV, Paris

19:00 Bank of England deputy governor Lomax speaks

The Risk Today:

EurUsd Euro remains in a positive trend. It set new record high this morning at 1.4873. Last week, it found support on 1.4520 and consolidated around 1.4650 (initial support). On the downside, only a return below 1.4500 and further drop to 1.4280 former resistance would threaten the uptrend. This could open the way down toward 1.4000 nearby support and 1.4125 trendline support. Initial support holds 1.4650 strong support.

GbpUsd Following early November largest drop since October 22nd, Cable found support last week around 2.0400. On the upside, 2.1161 high (Friday 9th) marks the strong resistance before putting 2.1355 May 11th 1981 into focus. Initial resistance holds 2.0844 Nov 14th high. On the downside, a strong return below 2.0525 may open a market reversal. But it would need renewed pressure below 2.0200 and further weakness toward 2.0000 psychological levels to validate a downtrend. Initial support holds 2.0525.

UsdJpy Trend remains bearish. UsdJpy drop for the third consecutive day posting new lows. It hit yesterday 108.25 2 ½-year low, erasing 109.13 trend support. On the downtrend, supports hold 106.50 June 2005 low and 101.68 January 2005 low. On the upside, market needs a return over 109 and 114 to undermine the actual downtrend. This may open the way toward 117.63 resistance. Initial resistance holds 109.13 former support.

UsdChf Downtrend remains heavy. It posted a fresh low 1.1005 this morning, following recent break toward the 12-year low 1.1110 from April 1995. Extreme target holds 1.1000 key level. Initial resistance holds 1.1300 (12th Nov) high. It would also need a return over 1.1500 and 1.1640 level to relieve actual bear threat.

Resistance and Support:

1.5000 K 2.1161 T 117.63 S 1.1640 T
1.4970 S 2.0922 S 114.00 P 1.1500 P
1.4870 M 2.0844 S 109.13 M 1.1300 S
1.4835 2.0645 108.65 1.1020
1.4650 S 2.0525 M 108.25 M 1.1015 M
1.4520 S 2.0200 S 106.50 S 1.1000 K
1.4500 K 2.0000 P 101.68 T 1.0900 M
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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