Monday November 26, 2007 - 05:27:05 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
||Cautiously, while 1.4845-58 caps I see more potential for losses to reach 1.4718-45|
||Friday‚Äôs rally stalled mid way between the 1.4945 and 1.4985 upside targets and I therefore suspect the entire rally is complete. Only a move back above 1.4845-58 would provide a stronger bullish signal and if seen would then revert to a bullish structure that should then revisit the 1.4896-1.4923 resistance and if breaks then look for extension through 1.4966 for 1.4982-1.5002 at a minimum. Next resistance is at 1.5036 and 1.5114.|
||Gains have moved above the 1.4805-20 target but there are a few more that should contain price and I suspect this should be at 1.4910 and at most 1.4997-03. (21st November)|
||The reversal from 1.4966 is encouraging although there was no bearish divergence within the hourly chart. However, the reversal has been solid and while there is a risk of a pullback to 1.4845-58 while this caps the downside risk remains. It would be useful to see a breach of the 1.4583 low which would then imply losses to the 1.4718-45 area. Take care as this could cause a pullback higher. Breach sees follow-through to 1.4686, 1.4620 with the bigger target being around the 1.4580 corrective low.|
||The peak is looking more like being at 1.4910 and maximum 1.5003. There are bearish divergences across the board with the first pullback likely to reach the 1.4580-1.4620 area. (21st November)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Price has broken easily above the 1.4910 resistance and this opens up the next targets being the 66.7% projection in Wave v at 1.5010 which also matched a weekly Wave (v) target at 1.5002.
Also note the 76.4% projection at 1.5082.
In this process look for the hourly chart to generate a bearish divergence and a break of the last significant low. At the moment this looks like the 1.4775 corrective low.
The 1.4966 level was very close to a 66.7% projection in Wave v and also meets long term projected targets also. I therefore suspect a move back to the last Wave b at 1.4580. Only back above 1.4966 sees 1.5003 at least being a weekly 61.8% target.
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