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Monday November 26, 2007 - 12:01:02 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 26-Nov-2007....1151 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.1021/25...Support at 1.0990-86
------------------------------------------
R: 1.1040 / 1.1080
S: 1.0990-86 / 1.0960
USD-CHF has seen losses for six weeks in a row. On Friday, the pair bounced back after hitting a low of 1.0896. This indicates that some kind of a consolidation may be seen this week. However, selling is still expected on rallies. On the upside, the important Resistance comes in at 1.1205, last week’s high. On the downside the Support would come in at 1.0887-90.

Today the pair has come off its early highs of 1.1074, and is above an important Support near 1.0990-86, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. A break below that could result in a decline towards 1.0960 or even lower over today or tomorrow. On the upside, the immediate Resistance is near 1.1040 and 1.1080. We are out of the pair currently.

 

GBP-USD @ 2.0705/10...Resistance near 2.0750
--------------------------------------------
R: 2.0750 / 2.0782-90
S: 2.0650 / 2.0610
Last week, GBP-USD traded in a big range of 2.0766 on the upside and 2.0450 on the downside, with minor gains. However, GBP lost ground, against EUR, JPY and CHF. This indicates that GBP-USD is likely to be ranged and choppy this week as well, and a directional move is unlikely. This could make trading difficult. There has been a nice rally in GBP-USD so far in the day and it seems to be headed towards

at 2.0748-50, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 2.0847 (14-Nov) and 2.0766 (23-Nov). Above that the statistically projected Max High for the day would come in at 2.0782. On the downside the Supports are at 2.0650 and then at 2.0610. We are out of the pair currently.

 


AUD-USD @ 0.8851/55....Holding Short for Long term
--------------------------------------------------
R: 0.8860-70 / 0.8910 / 0.8950
S: 0.8810 / 0.8750
The Australian Dollar seems to have found near-term Support at 0.8655, the low seen on 21-Nov (Wed) last week. It has bounced from there over the last few days and seems to have potential to rise further into the 0.89-90 this week. In the longer term, there could be chances of an eventual fall below 0.8700-8650 provided the market remains below 0.9000.

The talk of China bidding for Rio Tinto (denied by China) seems to have benefited the AUD-USD. It is also benefiting from still high and possibly rising interest rates. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for 05-Dec, next week. What effect the newly elected Labour government will have on the AUD will have to be seen.

As such, could it be that our long-term Short position in AUD-USD entered into last week was ill founded? Currently in the immediate short term, the pair is near an important trendline Resistance at 0.8860, which falls on a trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 0.9076 (14-Nov) and 0.8955 (20-Nov), which could hold for the next few hours. Above that the Resistance to watch is 0.8910, the projected Max High for the day. If and while this holds, there would still be chances of the AUD-USD falling back (rather than moving up) this week. A break above 0.8910 could lead to cutting back of Short positions.

Holding (in Long-term book):
AUD 10K Short at 0.8724, SL 0.8924, TP 0.8500

 

Happy Trading!

 

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