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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update U.S. Market
Dow -41 S&P -9 NASDAQ -16
- U.S. Indices began the week on the
upside looking to consolidate Friday's upside move. But as the morning has
worn on the same underlying themes seem to have sent equities lower along
with U.S. Treasury yields. Interest rate sensitive names have been weak
from the get go after Citigroup cut is rating of HSBC bank along with
various home building names. XLF -1.7% -2.7% Citigrop itself was the
subject of another worrisome WSJ article indicating the Co. may have to
take $41B more in CDO related assets onto its balance sheet. The energy
complex is adding to today's losses as Jan crude gives back 1.2% to $97 on
reports of an imminent Saudi production increase. The OIH tested its 50-
day moving average early in the session but has since backed off into
negative territory. Managed care names are one beneficiary of today's tape.
UNH +0.6% AET +3.3% CI +2.5% HUM +3.4% The 10-year note future has
rallied more than half a point from where it entered floor trade. The
yield has fallen back below 4% to 3.97%. The long maturities are seeing
better buying after the NY Fed announced plans for $8B repo settling Nov
28th and maturing in January.
- In currencies, the overall tone
was one of consolidation for the USD and JPY as they piggybacked the global
equity and fixed-income price action. The undertones of credit market
concerns remained on the front burner and central banks continue to take
notice. An analyst note from Goldman Sachs help move the USD off session
lows (and European equities off their best levels) when the firm noted that
HSBC could face up to an additional $12B in subprime-related write offs.
The LIBOR fixing rates for Monday again highlighted the continuing stress
of the short term funding operations. Sterling 2 month rates remained at
fresh 6 Â½ year highs. The 3-month LIBOR for the Euro, USD and GBP remain at
elevated levels seem from late September. Citigroup economist noted that
the major central banks seem poised to engage an easing policy stance,
noting Fed may be lowering by 100bp, Citing US housing situation, higher
oil prices and weakening USD. Comments in early European trading by the
Swiss central bank stressed that the SNB did expect this extent of the sub-
prime contagion. CNBC reported that Citgroup is facing large job cuts in
the coming months as a result of subprime woes. NY Fed noted it would
raise borrowing limits of securities lending from 20% to 25%. In central
bank speak; the ECB's Papademos noted that the Euro-Zone currently has low
inflation and that long term expectations remained anchored at this time.
He later touted the standard ECB view that additional data is necessary
before deciding any next rate move. Lastly Papdemos noted that price
stability remains the central bank's overall objective. BOE's Bean says
hitting inflation target is not an impossible task, says MPC will do what
is necessary to keep CPI on track. EUR/USD at 1.4850, little changed from
its opening levels in Tokyo. GBP/JPY hovering below its 100 week moving
average of 225.04. The USD/JPY holding below its former subprime low of 108.
90 area. FTSE off 0.9% at 6,207; CAC lower by 0.8% at 5,476 and DAX
softer by 0.4% at 7,580
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 31 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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