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Trade the News - U.S. Market UpdateDow +185 S&P +18 NASDAQ +42
- Equities find some traction after
Citigroup receives a $7.5B cash infusion from the Abu Dhabi Investment
Authority. The reaction in the stock itself has been less than
overwhelming as it actually ticked into the red early in the session, but
overall the financial stocks have seen bidders step in on the news. C +2.
3% XLF +1.5% It is worth noting that equity futures did blip lower and
bond futures briefly went positive ahead of the NY open as recession talk
picked up. Merrill's Chief economist said he sees a recession likely in
2008 while Goldman also said they have seen an increase in those odds; and
followed that up with a swath of sector ratings changes that illustrated a
more defensive posture heading into 2008. ESRX +2.6% and ATVI +12.2% are
aiding the NASDQ after both Co. raised guidance. Energy futures have been
softer since the open with Jan crude off 2.5% back near $95. The Oil
Service Index has given back 1.4% on the weaker oil prices and after the
drillers were cut at Goldman. Dec gold is down nearly 2% as the Greenback
attempts to recover a bit. U.S. yields have been ticking steadily higher
since their open for floor trade on the back of firming stock prices. The
10-year note future is down almost a full point yielding 3.98%. The Jan
fed funds contract still fully prices in a 25bp cut at the Dec meeting,
while the April contract saw the odds of a 3.75% fed funds rate by spring
climb above 80% on this morning's recession talk.
consolidation phase continued among the major currency pairs in a choppy
fashion as sentiment remained centered around US financial stocks and
overall credit markets jitters. The Citigroup news helped the cross-
related JPY carry trades recovered from losses endured during the NY equity
sell-off on Monday. The USD probed its best levels against the European
pairs for the session after Germany's Handelsblatt reported that Germany's
IKB bank likely needed an additional â‚¬400M rescue package. ECB's Garganas
also aided the USD cause when he noted that recent currency moves have been
sharp and abrupt, case can be made that currency did not perhaps reflect
fundamentals. However, The USD stumbled to session lows prior to the NY
interbank open when word circulated among Dealers that Goldman Sachs
analysts lowered their 2008 Fed interest rate fund outlook by 100 bps to 3.
00%; coupled with numerous defensive equity sector rating changes at the
firm. Goldman also raised their probability that the US would enter a
recession during 2008 to around 45% from 35% prior. Merrill Lynch later
echoed the US recession call. The Euro probed the 1.49 neighborhood in the
aftermath of the US economic downgrades. Lastly the Euro was off its best
level after IKB holder KFW raised its risk coverage for the bank by â‚¬2.3B.
The German Fin Min noted that the German State of N. Rhine of Westphalia
was considering a capital increase in West LB and stated it could be linked
to takeover of IKB. The LIBOR fixing rates for Tuesday showed little
relief from its high level funding stress. TheSterling 2 month rates
remained at fresh 6 Â½ year highs. The 3-month LIBOR rates for the Euro, USD
and GBP remain at elevated levels seem from late September. Other notable
comments during the NY morning include: US Treasury's Holmer who stated
that China needs a 'much more flexible' in exchange rate; ECB's Liikanen
noted that protectionism must be resisted; Venezuela Oil Min commenting
that OPEC needs to create a currency basket for oil due to weak USD.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 17 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
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