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Tuesday November 27, 2007 - 17:51:00 GMT
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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update

Dow +185 S&P +18 NASDAQ +42

- Equities find some traction after Citigroup receives a $7.5B cash infusion from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. The reaction in the stock itself has been less than overwhelming as it actually ticked into the red early in the session, but overall the financial stocks have seen bidders step in on the news. C +2. 3% XLF +1.5% It is worth noting that equity futures did blip lower and bond futures briefly went positive ahead of the NY open as recession talk picked up. Merrill's Chief economist said he sees a recession likely in 2008 while Goldman also said they have seen an increase in those odds; and followed that up with a swath of sector ratings changes that illustrated a more defensive posture heading into 2008. ESRX +2.6% and ATVI +12.2% are aiding the NASDQ after both Co. raised guidance. Energy futures have been softer since the open with Jan crude off 2.5% back near $95. The Oil Service Index has given back 1.4% on the weaker oil prices and after the drillers were cut at Goldman. Dec gold is down nearly 2% as the Greenback attempts to recover a bit. U.S. yields have been ticking steadily higher since their open for floor trade on the back of firming stock prices. The 10-year note future is down almost a full point yielding 3.98%. The Jan fed funds contract still fully prices in a 25bp cut at the Dec meeting, while the April contract saw the odds of a 3.75% fed funds rate by spring climb above 80% on this morning's recession talk.

- The consolidation phase continued among the major currency pairs in a choppy fashion as sentiment remained centered around US financial stocks and overall credit markets jitters. The Citigroup news helped the cross- related JPY carry trades recovered from losses endured during the NY equity sell-off on Monday. The USD probed its best levels against the European pairs for the session after Germany's Handelsblatt reported that Germany's IKB bank likely needed an additional €400M rescue package. ECB's Garganas also aided the USD cause when he noted that recent currency moves have been sharp and abrupt, case can be made that currency did not perhaps reflect fundamentals. However, The USD stumbled to session lows prior to the NY interbank open when word circulated among Dealers that Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their 2008 Fed interest rate fund outlook by 100 bps to 3. 00%; coupled with numerous defensive equity sector rating changes at the firm. Goldman also raised their probability that the US would enter a recession during 2008 to around 45% from 35% prior. Merrill Lynch later echoed the US recession call. The Euro probed the 1.49 neighborhood in the aftermath of the US economic downgrades. Lastly the Euro was off its best level after IKB holder KFW raised its risk coverage for the bank by €2.3B. The German Fin Min noted that the German State of N. Rhine of Westphalia was considering a capital increase in West LB and stated it could be linked to takeover of IKB. The LIBOR fixing rates for Tuesday showed little relief from its high level funding stress. TheSterling 2 month rates remained at fresh 6 ½ year highs. The 3-month LIBOR rates for the Euro, USD and GBP remain at elevated levels seem from late September. Other notable comments during the NY morning include: US Treasury's Holmer who stated that China needs a 'much more flexible' in exchange rate; ECB's Liikanen noted that protectionism must be resisted; Venezuela Oil Min commenting that OPEC needs to create a currency basket for oil due to weak USD.


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