Wednesday November 28, 2007 - 03:47:06 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
||While 2.0607-35 support we cannot rule out gains to 2.0842-51 but loss is looking more likely|
||Yesterdayâ€™s push higher couldnâ€™t press above the 2.0761 high but while any retracement remains above 2.0607-35 the move to 2.0581-80 can still occur. It will be best to wait for break of resistance at 2.0717 at least which should extend the upside to 2.0763. Break of this higher resistance would keep the momentum higher for a move through to 2.0851-80 which should cap if seen.|
||We have seen the correction reach the lower resistance at 2.0756 and there still seems to be risk for these to extend to 2.0842-50. Only a clean break above 2.0850 could see 2.0891 and possibly 2.0969. (23rd November)|
||The 2.0761 high remains intact and actually fell short of internal targets within a more bullish structure. Therefore we should be on alert for additional losses. The 2.0635 support has held thus far and below there is Fibonacci support at 2.0607. Break of this lower support would open the way for losses to accelerate down towards 2.0557 and probably 2.0512 which should hold on first test for a correction. The target will then be at 2.0450, 2.0415 and then the 2.0352 low.|
||I still maintain the high was seen at 2.1160 and now any loss of 2.0607 should pressure the 2.0516 low which may well cause a small pullback ahead of losses to retest the 2.0352 low. (28th November)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The sharp reversal from the 50% retracement at 2.0761 but I also note that this level is implied within an expanded flat correction. Thus we need losses of yesterdayâ€™s low to extend losses to the 2.0352 low and at most the 2.0244-57 lows.
The expanded flat scenario looks possible but only while the 50% & 61.8% retracement at 2.0607-35 holds. This would see a rally to the 61.8% retracement in Wave â€“b- at 2.0851 which is just a few points above the prior Wave iv at 2.0842.
Any earlier break below 2.0607 would threaten a move back to the 2.0352 low in a 161.8% projection of the initial decline from 2.0761.
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