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Wednesday November 28, 2007 - 12:35:50 GMT
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Trade the News - European Market Update: Dollar Stronger on Technical Correction

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

· GE Dec GFK Consumer Confidence: 4.3 v 4.4e

· SP Oct Real Retail Sales Y/Y; 3.0% v 0.4% prior

· SP Oct Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 1. 8%e

· SW Oct Retail Sales: M/M -1.5% v -0.3%e || Y/Y 6.2% v 8.2%e || Prior revised from 9.9% to 9.8%

· IT Nov Retailers' Confidence: 115. 6 v 110.2 prior || Prior revised from 110.2 to 110.3

· IT Nov Services Survey: 6 v 23 prior

· EU Oct M3 Y/Y: 12.3% v 11.5%e [highest since August 1979]

· EU Oct M3 3-Month Avg. 11.7% v 11. 5%e

· SZ Nov KOF Leading Indicator: 2.02 v 1.98e || Prior revised from 2.02 to 2.04

· *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***

· ECB Trichet: To set up a working group with the PBOC on the Yuan

· ECB Trichet: China said that it could follow the EU's calls on FX

· ECB Trichet: China is examining faster CNY rise

· ECB Trichet: Yuan rise against the Euro would benefit China and the worl economy

· ECB Trichet: International consensus of need to avoid sharp FX moves

· EU Juncker: CNY Decline Vs EUR Causing Problems For EU Economy

· EU Juncker: Protectionism could result if CNY problem not addressed or fixed

· EU Juncker: Need to know why CNY is rising against USD and falling against the Euro

· EU Juncker: Says Main Concern Is Persistence Of Global Imbalance

· EU Almunia: Urged China to pay attention to the Eur/Cny

· EU Almunia: China shouldn't only focus on the Usd/Cny

· EU Almunia: Chinese growth can be sustained in the longer term

· SNB Roth: The SNB does not operate mechanically to inflation forecasts

· SNB Roth: Inflation forecast could underestimate price risks in times of franc weakness

· SNB Roth: The SNB does not target fx and franc developments as parte of its inflation forecast

· BOE Lomax: Forecast show that rates may fall in the next 2 years

· BOE Lomax: Forecasts are projections not promises

· BOE Lomax: UK regions are less susceptible to an economic downturn

· BOE Lomax: There are a lot of dinancial turmoil related risks

· BOE Lomax: Seeing the first evidence of a slowdown

· Dresdner cuts its 2008 ECB rate forecast to 4.00% from previous forecast of 4.25%

· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

· Fixed income futures are trading lower in the session on the back of a rise in equity markets. Futures did not gain any upside momentum from Dresdner's reduction in its ECB rate forecast for 2008. In new supply overnight Germany sold €4.498B in 4.25% October 2012 Bobl 151s with an average yield of 3.82% and a bid-to-cover of 2.0x. The bid-to-cover compares to the 1.91x on the previous auction. Over in the UK the DMO sold £2.0B in 4.50% December 2012 gilts with an average yield of 4.436%, and a bid-to-cover of 1.82x. The bid-to-cover compares to 1.32x on the previous auction.

· On the FX front there has been a broad based technical correction adding some upside momentum to the dollar and weighing down on commodity prices. The dollar also gained some momentum after Dresdner cut its 2008 ECB rate forecast to hold rate at 4.00%. Dresdner has previously forecasted one rate hike in 2008. Elsewhere the Swiss franc was weaker in the session following comments from the SNBs Roth.

· On the commodity front, upward dollar momentum is weighing down on commodity prices, and has pushed gold back below $800. Front month crude futures are also trading lower in the session ahead of the OPEC summit, which is just a week away. The Saudi Oil Minister said overnight that fundamentals do not support current high oil prices, blaming the weak USD and speculators. The oil minister added that OPEC must look at data and then decide policy at December 5 meeting. Elsewhere, the Libyan oil minister said that OPEC is doing all that it can to meet demand || OPEC does not have much room to increase output further.

· The European indices are currently trading in positive territory in the session. Amsterdam's Stork announced overnight that it will be acquired by Candover in a €1.5B deal. In Germany, the Bavarian finance minister said that the private BayernLB and LBBW will enter merger talks over the next couple of months. Although not tradable the banks were one of the first European focal points upon the emergence of the sub-prime crisis.

 

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