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Wednesday November 28, 2007 - 13:34:48 GMT
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Dollar pulled away from 2 ½ year low as Citigroup news help demand for riskier assets

News and Events:

The Dollar gained broadly on Tuesday as news that Citigroup would sell a $7.5 bio stake to the Abu Dhabi government triggered a wave of buying from traders who rely on computer models. The overnight Citigroup news restored confidence in battered US banks, fueling a steep rally in the stock market. The Dollar rose sharply against the Yen in the Tokyo session after the Citi report, sparking the unwinding of short positions on the greenback, and that rally spilled over to other currencies, traders said. Investors interpreted Citi's move as a sign that financial institutions were repairing the damage from a meltdown in the US sub-prime mortgage market and the resulting credit crunch, which has been a big factor behind recent dollar weakness. The Dollar pulled away from a 2-1/2-year low against the Yen touched on Monday to trade at 108.82, up 1.37% and on track for its biggest one-day gain since late August. The Yen fell broadly as news of the Citi stake sale prompted a recovery in the Nikkei share index, fueling demand for relatively riskier assets. UsdChf rose 0.78% to 1.1053. GbpUsd was fairly unchanged -0.08% at 2.0674. EurUsd fell 0.28% to 1.4809, more than a cent below last week's record highs at 1.4967. The single currency was little affected by remarks on Tuesday by German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, who said he expected the economic upturn in the euro zone's largest economy to continue in 2008 despite the strong Euro. UsdJpy gained despite a report showed US consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month in November to its lowest in two years on concerns about rising gasoline prices. Comments by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser (not a voter on Fed monetary policy) had little impact on the currency market. He said US interest rate cuts increase the risk of higher inflation. On Wednesday, investors are expected to focus on the Fed's Beige Book report for clues on what the US central bank intends to do at its monetary policy meeting on December 11th.

Forex-Chart

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

08:15 CHF 3Q Non-farm payrolls 3.87M

08:30 DKK 3Q GDP 1.8% vs 0.6% (YoY)

08:30 SEK October Retail Sales -1.5% vs 2.6% (MoM)
08:30 SEK October Retail Sales 6.2% vs 9.9% (YoY)

09:00 EUR October Euro zone M3 11.5% vs 11.3%

10:30 CHF November KOF indicator 1.98 vs 2.02

12:00 USD November 23rd MBA Mortgage Applications previously -3.6%

13:30 USD October Durable Goods orders 0% vs -1.7%
13:30 USD October Durable Goods ex-defense -0.2% vs 0.5%
13:30 USD October Durable Goods ex-trans 0.3% vs 0.4%
13:30 USD October Existing Home Sales 5’000k vs 5’040k
13:30 USD October Existing Home Sales -0.8% vs -8%

23:50 JPY October Industrial Production 1.7% vs -1.4% (MoM)
23:50 JPY October Industrial Production 4.2% vs 0.8% (YoY)


The Risk Today:

EurUsd Euro remains in a positive trend. It set new record high on Friday at 1.4967. Two weeks ago, it found support on 1.4520 and is currently consolidating in between 1.4800 and 1.4850. On the downside, only a return below 1.4500 and further drop to 1.4280 former resistance would threaten the uptrend. This could open the way down toward 1.4000 nearby support and 1.4125 trendline support. Initial support holds 1.4800.

GbpUsd Following early November heavy drop, -1.73% 12 November, Cable found support last week around 2.0600. On the upside, 2.1161 high (Friday 9th) marks the strong resistance before putting 2.1355 May 11th 1981 into focus. Initial resistance holds 2.0764 Friday high. Strong resistance holds 2.0844 Nov 14th high. On the downside, a strong return below 2.0525 may open a market reversal. But it would need renewed pressure below 2.0200 and further weakness toward 2.0000 psychological levels to validate a downtrend. Initial support holds 2.0525.

UsdJpy Trend remains bearish even with yesterday pullback. UsdJpy mostly drop last week posting new lows. It hit 107.22 on Monday, 2 ½-year low. On the downtrend, supports hold 106.50 June 2005 low and 101.68 January 2005 low. On the upside, market needs a return over 109 and 114 to undermine the actual downtrend. This may open the way toward 117.63 resistance. Initial resistance holds 109.13 former support.

UsdChf Downtrend remains heavy, even with recent rebound on Friday 1.0888 low. This extreme low was following the recent break toward the 12-year low 1.1110 from April 1995. Market will again found support on 1.1000 key level. Initial resistance holds 1.1300 (12th Nov) high. It would also need a return over 1.1500 and 1.1640 level to relieve actual bear threat.

Resistance and Support:

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.5000 K 2.1161 T 117.63 S 1.1640 T
1.4970 S 2.0922 S 114.00 P 1.1500 P
1.4870 M 2.0844 S 109.13 M 1.1300 S
1.4730 2.0615 109.00 1.1140
1.4723 M 2.0525 M 107.50 K 1.1000 S
1.4650 S 2.0200 S 106.50 S 1.0900 M
1.4500 K 2.0000 P 101.68 T 1.0888 K
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

 

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