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Wednesday November 28, 2007 - 18:09:31 GMT
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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update

Dow +218 S&P +26.5 NASDAQ +61

- U.S. indices surge on hopes the Fed will successfully steer the economy through the credit malaise. UBS +4.4% was upgraded overnight while a WSJ article indicated that BAC made overtures to Citigroup +7% regarding a possible merger before deciding to accept the infusion from Abu Dhabi's Investment Authority. Financials have been able to extend the relief rally that began following that news yesterday. XLF +4.7% GS +5.2% MER +7.5% The Fed's Kohn helped equity futures to new highs when his most recent comments were strategically released ahead of a soft Oct durable goods number before the NY open. His comments emphasized the return of tightening conditions to credit markets in recent weeks, and that markets will be a factor in weighing the need for action. Bond and equity prices moved higher on the belief that Kohn's remarks indicated there is little to keep the Fed from lowering rates if deemed necessary. Treasury futures are generally lower, but the 10-year yield has been unable to climb above 4% and Fed Fund futures prices are slightly higher. Also buoying equity markets is a sell off in energy futures for the second straight session. Weekly inventory data sent the Jan crude contract through its 20-day EMA, down another 2.5% to $92. Heating oil, natural gas, and gasoline futures are off 2+% as well. December gold is down 2% at $797 after the Greenback traded at its best levels against the Euro in nearly 2-weeks.

- Currency dealers attributed the early broad based USD strength to month end funding requirements coupled with some technical factors. Dealers noting that a few banks have balance sheet constraints ahead of the quarter and year-end and funding requirements will be more acute this time around. EUR/USD tested the 1.4700 level, while the USD/CHF probed the 1.12 area prior to the NY interbank open. The upcoming OPEC meeting on Dec 5th renewed the oil/USD depeg debate as one Arab publication stated that UAE could revalue its currency by Dec 2nd in the range 3% - 5% against USD. Other comments countered this claim. A broad base global-equity rally helped undermine the carry trade currencies. Both the JPY and CHF were broadly weaker against the major G-10 members. USD/JPY broached the 110 handle, while EUR/JPY tested above 162. The CHF maintains a soft tone after SNB's Roth noted that central bank does not operate mechanically to inflation does not target FX and CHF developments as part of its inflation forecast. The USD dropped from its best levels of the session after Fed's Kohn noted the Financial strains seemed to have returned in recent weeks; He added that such Conditions may lead to further tightening of financial conditions in the US if they persists. Currency dealers interpreted the Fed's comment that the FOMC could further reduce the Discount rate. ECB's Constancio: Inflation is not out of control in Europe and that he did not see any second round effects in wages. He also noted that the USD decline has started to correct the global imbalances. Lastly he said that the USD decline has been reasonably gradual. European fixed income futures were lower through out the session. Dec Bunds off 50+ ticks at 114.56, Dec Gilts lower by 54 ticks at 109.39 European bourses higher. FTSE up 2% to 6,261, CAC higher by 2.1% at 5,547, DAX at 7,685, up 2%


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