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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update Dow +218 S&P +26.5 NASDAQ +61
- U.S. indices surge on hopes
the Fed will successfully steer the economy through the credit malaise.
UBS +4.4% was upgraded overnight while a WSJ article indicated that BAC
made overtures to Citigroup +7% regarding a possible merger before deciding
to accept the infusion from Abu Dhabi's Investment Authority. Financials
have been able to extend the relief rally that began following that news
yesterday. XLF +4.7% GS +5.2% MER +7.5% The Fed's Kohn helped equity
futures to new highs when his most recent comments were strategically
released ahead of a soft Oct durable goods number before the NY open. His
comments emphasized the return of tightening conditions to credit markets
in recent weeks, and that markets will be a factor in weighing the need for
action. Bond and equity prices moved higher on the belief that Kohn's
remarks indicated there is little to keep the Fed from lowering rates if
deemed necessary. Treasury futures are generally lower, but the 10-year
yield has been unable to climb above 4% and Fed Fund futures prices are
slightly higher. Also buoying equity markets is a sell off in energy
futures for the second straight session. Weekly inventory data sent the
Jan crude contract through its 20-day EMA, down another 2.5% to $92.
Heating oil, natural gas, and gasoline futures are off 2+% as well.
December gold is down 2% at $797 after the Greenback traded at its best
levels against the Euro in nearly 2-weeks.
- Currency dealers
attributed the early broad based USD strength to month end funding
requirements coupled with some technical factors. Dealers noting that a few
banks have balance sheet constraints ahead of the quarter and year-end and
funding requirements will be more acute this time around. EUR/USD tested
the 1.4700 level, while the USD/CHF probed the 1.12 area prior to the NY
interbank open. The upcoming OPEC meeting on Dec 5th renewed the oil/USD
depeg debate as one Arab publication stated that UAE could revalue its
currency by Dec 2nd in the range 3% - 5% against USD. Other comments
countered this claim. A broad base global-equity rally helped undermine
the carry trade currencies. Both the JPY and CHF were broadly weaker
against the major G-10 members. USD/JPY broached the 110 handle, while
EUR/JPY tested above 162. The CHF maintains a soft tone after SNB's Roth
noted that central bank does not operate mechanically to inflation does not
target FX and CHF developments as part of its inflation forecast. The USD
dropped from its best levels of the session after Fed's Kohn noted the
Financial strains seemed to have returned in recent weeks; He added that
such Conditions may lead to further tightening of financial conditions in
the US if they persists. Currency dealers interpreted the Fed's comment
that the FOMC could further reduce the Discount rate. ECB's Constancio:
Inflation is not out of control in Europe and that he did not see any
second round effects in wages. He also noted that the USD decline has
started to correct the global imbalances. Lastly he said that the USD
decline has been reasonably gradual. European fixed income futures were
lower through out the session. Dec Bunds off 50+ ticks at 114.56, Dec Gilts
lower by 54 ticks at 109.39 European bourses higher. FTSE up 2% to 6,261,
CAC higher by 2.1% at 5,547, DAX at 7,685, up 2%
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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