User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 28, 2007 - 22:16:54 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Dow Rises 300 Points, Triggering a Turn in Carry Trades


Wednesday, 28 November 2007 21:03:44 GMT Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

- Dollar: Beige Book Report Validates Need for Further Easing

- Euro Sees Strong Intraday Reversal

Dow Rises 300 Points, Triggering a Turn in Carry Trades

The Dow has rallied more than 500 points over the past 2 trading days, triggering a sharp rebound in all of the Japanese Yen crosses.  Carry trades are back with a vengeance, but the question at the forefront of everyone’s minds is whether this trend will continue.  Without a doubt the move in the Dow is impressive, but USDJPY is struggling to sustain its gains above 110 which suggest that further gains in carry trades may be limited.  This is especially true since the move in both the Dow and carry trades have been fueled by nothing other than risk appetite and the latest US releases validate the market’s belief that Federal Reserve needs to continue lowering interest rates.  The curve is pricing in a 92 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut next month followed by the possibility of another quarter point cut in the first quarter of 2008.  The first test of whether the gains in carry trades can be sustained will be when Tokyo opens for trading tonight.  Japanese industrial production and small business confidence are due for release this evening, but it should matter little to a market focused on risk appetite.  Instead, keep an eye on China.  Last night a Chinese newspaper suggested that the government could widen the trading band or make another one off revaluation.  The odds are low, but unexpected events like these are exactly what triggers big moves in the currency market.

Dollar: Beige Book Report Validates Need for Further Easing

With the Federal Reserve at odds with market expectations, traders were banking on today’s Beige Book report to clear the air on who is more right about the outlook for the US economy.  Recent Fed rhetoric has been all over the place with yesterday’s hawkish comments from Evans and Plosser offset by the dovish comments by Kohn today.  The market on other hand has continued to price in a growing chance of a recession and even though we do not believe that a recession will occur, the US economy could come very close to it.  This morning’s data indicates that weakness of the US dollar has done nothing to help the economy.  Durable goods fell for the third consecutive month while existing home sales plummeted to eight year lows.  Even the Beige Book painted a grim outlook with the various Fed districts reporting slower growth, little change in manufacturing, modest price pressures, depressed real estate markets and a slow holiday shopping season.  The only reason why US stocks and carry trades are higher is because the market expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and they are pricing in the expected benefits.  Third quarter GDP and New home sales are due for release tomorrow.  The forecasts for GDP are very high, which means that it won’t take much to surprise to the downside.   

Euro Sees Strong Intraday Reversal

Having fallen to a low of 1.4712 intraday, the reversal in the EURUSD was nothing short of impressive.  US and Eurozone economic data continued to surprise in opposite directions, leading us to believe that the currency pair still has a chance of testing 1.50.  M3 which is an inflation measure came out slightly stronger than expected, Italian retailer confidence was also stronger and even though the German Gfk consumer confidence survey was softer, the revision to the prior month’s number puts it right in line with expectations.  Tomorrow we are expecting another laundry list of economic data from the Eurozone including German unemployment, retail PMI and producer prices.  Most of these reports should surprise to the upside as the strength of the Euro fails to put a meaningful dent on the Eurozone economy.  Meanwhile in Switzerland, the KoF leading indicator was also much stronger than expected, but that did not prevent the Swiss franc from falling against the Euro as renewed risk appetite sweeps the currency pair higher. 

British Pound Rallies on BoE Comments

The British pound rallied against both the US dollar and Euro thanks to the strong demand for high yielding currencies and hawkish comments from Bank of England policymaker Sentence.  Although many people believe that a rate cut by the BoE is a done deal, Sentance’s comment that setting monetary policy in the months ahead will be a particularly challenging task suggests that the central bank has not made up its mind.  Like his other counterparts, he was worried about the upside risk to inflation and the downside risk to growth.  Unfortunately tomorrow’s data will not give traders any new information on where the greater pressure lies since the market has already discounted a further deterioration in the housing market and Nationwide house prices and mortgage approvals are expected to confirm that. 

Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars Unfazed by Weaker Commodity Prices

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are stronger across the board despite a drop in commodity prices.  With no economic data released other than mixed Australian reports, the primary driver of commodity price strength is risk appetite.  The breakouts in the Australian and New Zealand are impressive and judging from the price action, we could see further gains.  USDCAD however is still holding above Tuesday’s low which means that there is a decent chance for a bounce.  We have a lot of important Canadian economic data due out over the next 48 hours.  Tomorrow we are expecting the current account and raw material prices both of which are directly impacted by the level of the Canadian dollar.  We expect these numbers to be weaker which could trigger the bounce in USDCAD.  New Zealand has money supply and business confidence due for release.  Building permits dropped -4.3 percent, but the change from the prior month should not be significant enough to offset the strong retail sales and PPI numbers that we have seen in the past few weeks.


By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of




Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105