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Thursday November 29, 2007 - 12:24:42 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 29-Nov-2007....1126 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------

 

USD-CHF @ 1.1195/99...Resistance near 1.1200-10
-----------------------------------------------
R: 1.1200-10 / 1.1240
S: 1.1160 / 1.1120
USD-CHF has once again rallied during the day and is currently near an its important Resistance of 1.1200-10, on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 1.1778 (24-Oct) and 1.1641 (01-Nov). A sustained move above 1.1200-10 may be seen or may not be seen, thus it could be unwise to trade. However, if there is a rally above 1.1200-10, then the Resistance would come in at 1.1240.
On the downside the Supports are at 1.1160 a fall below which could indicate that 1.1200, has held. If that is broken, then a fall towards1.1120 may also be seen. Since the pair is near its important Resistance, it may be unwise to trade.

EUR-CHF (1.6505) has seen sharp rally over the last couple of days and has moved above its short-term important level of 1.6460-65. Now this level may act as Support, and should it hold, then USD-CHF could be range bound for the next few days.
 


GBP-USD @ 2.0607/12....Sharp fall on
------------------------------------
R: 2.0660 / 2.0720
S: 2.0580 / 2.0540
GBP-USD has had a sharp fall during the day and is currently down close to 200+ pips from its highs. The current fall (if sustained) could lead to further losses in the week, possibly towards 2.0470-60, which falls on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the lows of 1.9879 (18-Sep) and 2.0353 (16-Nov).

For today the immediate Support is at 2.0580. Below that further weakness towards 2.0540 or lower is likely. On the upside the Resistance is at 2.0660 and then at 2.0720. We stay out of the pair currently.


 
 AUD-USD @ 0.8811/15...Choppy, Volatile and Bearish
--------------------------------------------------
R: 0.8860 / 0.8920-22
S: 0.8802-00 / 0.8760
The fact that AUD-USD has been very choppy for a few days was known in advance, however, that was nothing compared with what was seen this morning. It initially rallied to 0.8922 but has seen a sharp fall from there. This choppiness is likely to continue in the pair, as it trades with the carry-trade theme of unwinding and rewinding.

During the day, a low of 0.8802 has been already seen so far, which is likely to act as a short term Support. A break below that could lead to a fall towards 0.8760, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.8860 and then at 0.8920-20, near the high for the day so far. We are holding a Short position currently in the long-term account.

Holding (in Long-term book):
AUD 10K Short at 0.8724, SL 0.8924, TP 0.8500

 

Happy Trading!
 

 

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