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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update Dow +15 S&P -0.4 NASDAQ +7
- U.S. equity markets attempt
to consolidate the best one-day move in over 5 years. A plethora of weak
earnings reports from some the nations top specialty retailers were
weighing on the indices in the early going. SHLD -15% ARO -7% JAS -11% MW -
16% BONT -12% CTR -12% SMRT -12% WTSLA -7% Financial names are
relinquishing a portion of yesterday's gains, but overall the U.S. equity
markets are holding up ok. XLF -1.7% GS -1% C -0.5% BAC -1% Home building
stocks are under some pressure after another drop in new home sales. RYL -
4% HOV -5% KBH -4% This mornings economic data reinforced a bleaker outlook
for the U.S. economy that was highlighted by the Fed's Kohn yesterday.
Besides the decline in new home sales, weekly initial jobless claims
exceeded expectations, and the strength in the preliminary Q3 GDP data came
as little surprise as most it was chalked up to inventory builds that will
have to be worked off going forward. Treasury futures have rallied and the
curve has seen some steepening, sending the 10-year yield back below 4% and
the 2-year towards 3%. Fed fund futures prices are climbing with the Jan
contract now projecting nearly a 30% chance of a 50bp cut in December, and
April seeing better than a 70% odds of a 3.75% fed funds rate. Jan crude
futures spiked above $95 in the overnight session following reports of an
explosion at U.S./Canada pipeline. Prices have since backed off after two
of the four pipelines have reopened, reassurances from the Dept of Homeland
Security that the incident was not terrorism related, and word that the
Dept of Energy was considering unlocking the SPR to offset any supply
disruptions. Jan crude is up 2% at $92.55 with gasoline and heating oil up
2% as well. The energy complex has been a beneficiary with the OSX
climbing 2%. Feb gold is holding near the unchanged mark while March
copper is up 2% on talk of short covering.
- Volatility in the
currency markets is picking up ahead of month end, while the overall ranges
remain intact among the major USD pairs. EUR/USD holding the 1.4700
support level on chatter of central bank bids looming. As the European
close approaches, the USD is eroding its gains following the release of US
home sales data and OFHEO Lockhart's comments are further evaluated.
Currency dealers are noting that both central bank and sovereign fund types
are consistently buying Euros on dips making any decent correction very
difficult. Commodity currencies focused their attention on oil's price
impact following the incident on Enbridge 's 1.5M BPD Canadian-US Crude
Pipeline. The CAD initially strengthen towards the 0.9835 area against the
USD as oil spiked above $95 per barrel. Enbridge later opened 2 of the 4
pipelines, which saw oil fall below $93. CAD also hampered by soft
economic data as its Q3 Current Account came in at $1.0B v $3.2B estimate.
Continued elevated levels and stress remain in the daily LIBOR fixing rates.
The Sterling 2 month rates remained at fresh 6 Â½ year highs at 6.65%.
The 3-month LIBOR rates for the Euro, USD and GBP remain at elevated levels
seem from mid September. In the wake of credit crisis concerns, the most
recent BOE data indicated that Northern bank currently totals Â£29B. The
financial sectors again saw vague rumors of addition subprime related
writedowns with RBS, Barclays and Lehman mentioned. Government bonds again
experienced some safe have flows. The US Commercial paper Outstanding rose
over the week to $1.854T v $1.842T prior, but US Asset backed Commercial
paper Outstanding fell by $11.6B to $824.3B v $835.8B the prior week.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 23 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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