Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate --
euro interest rate and others
The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the
future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that
process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks
are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships.
The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC,
the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest
rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these
data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.
The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled
acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to
anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In
banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances
by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial
amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the
cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency
relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price
of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open
market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use
monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target
inflation to one extent to another.
The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds)
is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors
and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term.
Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest
to where yields are highest.
Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest
real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with
thehighest nominal returns.
The TABLE below is updated
daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest
rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also
indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various
future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for
money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for
The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term
interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how
the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in
time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation
measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target
levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while
below target growth implies lower rates.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 31 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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