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Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate -- euro interest rate and others



The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships. The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC, the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.

The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target inflation to one extent to another.

The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds) is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term. Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest to where yields are highest. Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with thehighest nominal returns.

 The TABLE below is updated daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for that meeting.

The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while below target growth implies lower rates.

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES



7/3/2009 20:16 GMT U.S   FF implied mtgs 25bp %odds
Target 0.13 outlook          
Mtg Aug 11 unch   Jul 09 0.205 n/a n/a
3mo 0.56 -0.03   Aug 09 0.205 Aug 11 n/a
      Sep 09 0.225 Sep 22 n/a
E$ Fut implied     Oct 09 0.245 n/a n/a
SEP09 0.61 -0.04   Nov 09 0.280 Nov 4 n/a
DEC09 0.81 -0.05   Dec 09 0.310 Dec 16 n/a
MAR10 1.05 -0.07   Jan 10 0.350 n/a n/a
JUN10 1.38 -0.11   Feb 10 0.455 n/a n/a
              100%=25bp
  Eurozone   U.K   Switz  
Target 1.00 outlook   0.50 outlook 0.25 outlook
Mtg Jul 2 -50bp   Jul 9 -50bp Mar 19 -50bp
3mo 1.04 -0.03   1.14 -0.02 0.39 -0.01
             
Futures implied chg   implied chg implied chg
SEP09 0.97 -0.01   1.05 -0.01 0.32 -0.01
DEC09 1.08 0.01   1.23 0.01 0.34 0.01
MAR10 1.18 0.01   1.49 0.01 0.37 0.01
JUN10 1.43 -0.01   1.94 -0.01 0.48 -0.01
               
  Japan     Australia   Canada  
Target 0.10 outlook   3.00 outlook 0.25 outlook
Mtg Jul 15 unch   Jul 7 -50bp Jul 21 -50bp
3mo 0.45 0.00   3.50 0.00 0.60 -0.02
             
Futures implied chg   implied chg implied chg
SEP09 0.50 -0.01   3.55 -0.01 0.43 -0.01
DEC09 0.50 0.01   3.97 0.01 0.46 0.01
MAR10 0.50 0.01   4.41 0.01 0.62 0.01


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