Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate --
euro interest rate and others
The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the
future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that
process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks
are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships.
The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC,
the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest
rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these
data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.
The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled
acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to
anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In
banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances
by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial
amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the
cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency
relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price
of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open
market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use
monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target
inflation to one extent to another.
The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds)
is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors
and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term.
Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest
to where yields are highest.
Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest
real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with
thehighest nominal returns.
The TABLE below is updated
daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest
rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also
indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various
future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for
money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for
The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term
interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how
the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in
time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation
measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target
levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while
below target growth implies lower rates.
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Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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