Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate --
euro interest rate and others
The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the
future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that
process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks
are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships.
The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC,
the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest
rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these
data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.
The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled
acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to
anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In
banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances
by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial
amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the
cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency
relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price
of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open
market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use
monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target
inflation to one extent to another.
The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds)
is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors
and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term.
Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest
to where yields are highest.
Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest
real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with
thehighest nominal returns.
The TABLE below is updated
daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest
rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also
indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various
future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for
money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for
The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term
interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how
the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in
time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation
measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target
levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while
below target growth implies lower rates.
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Trading Ideas for 25 July 2017
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 25 Jul
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 26 Jul
07:30 AU- CPI
08:30 GB- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 27 Jul
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 28 Jul
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan
Event Risk Agenda
- EVENT RISK: Medium Tue-- 08:00 GMT DE IFO Survey. This is oldest, largest and by far most respected survey of the German econony. I feel it tends to have a positive bias. Perhaps because of this it is not as much of a market-mover as it once was.
- EVENT RISK: High-to-Medium Tue-- 14:00 GMT US CB Consumer Confidence. This is one of oldest and most respected U.S. sentiment surveys. It can be a market-mover.
- EVENT RISK: High Wed-- 08:30 GMT GB- GDP. This can be a market-mover.
- EVENT RISK: High Wed-- 18:00 GMT US- FOMC Decision. No policy changes are expected. No press conference is scheduled GDP. Any meeting can be a market-mover.
- EVENT RISK: Low Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless Claims. The most up-to-date reading on employment. Rarely much of a market-mover given the current low level of claims.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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