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3/12/10 10:45
Target   3-Mo
3.75 Aust 4.29
0.10 Japan 0.25
0.50 U.K. 0.64
1.00 E-Z 0.59
0.25 Switz 0.25
0.25 Cda 0.40
0.13 U.S. 0.26
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 4.88 1
Japan 0.15 3
U.K. 1.21 -4
E-Z 1.05 1
Switz 0.49 2
Cda 1.34 -1
U.S. 0.95 1
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 5.67 1
Japan 1.35 3
U.K. 4.13 -1
E-Z 3.18 0
Switz 1.94 2
Cda 3.50 0
U.S. 3.72 1


 


 

Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate -- euro interest rate and others



The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships. The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC, the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.

The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target inflation to one extent to another.

The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds) is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term. Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest to where yields are highest. Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with thehighest nominal returns.

 The TABLE below is updated daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for that meeting.

The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while below target growth implies lower rates.

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES



3/12/10 GMT US FF implied mtgs  
             
Futures implied change        
MAR10 0.26 0.00 Jan 10 0.625 Jan 27  
JUN10 0.39 0.02 Feb 10 #VALUE! Mar 16  
SEP10 0.58 0.02 Mar 10 0.157 Apr 28  
DEC10 0.88 0.03 Apr 10 0.170 Jun 23  
             
             
  Eurozone U.K   Switz Switz
             
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
MAR10 0.65 0.00 0.64 0.00 0.26 0.00
JUN10 0.75 0.00 0.74 0.00 0.31 0.00
SEP10 0.98 0.01 0.92 0.01 0.44 0.01
DEC10 1.24 0.02 1.21 0.02 0.65 0.02
             
             
  Japan   Australia   Canada Canada
             
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
MAR10 0.44 0.00 5.65 0.00 0.47 0.00
JUN10 0.38 0.00 5.72 0.00 0.60 0.00
SEP10 0.36 0.01 5.78 0.01 1.00 0.01
DEC10 0.36 0.02 5.82 0.02 1.43 0.02


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Global-View.com Chart Gallery
03/12/2010                
10:45 GMT   2yr bp 10yr bp DJIA 10612 5
USDX 79.83 -47 0.95 1 3.72 1 S&P 1150 3
USD vs.             NAS 2368 1
EUR 1.3784 106 1.05 1 3.18 0 DAX 5968 40
GBP 1.5151 89 1.21 -4 4.13 -1 FTSE 5640 23
CHF 1.0584 100 0.49 2 1.94 2 SMI 6854 0
JPY 90.23 32 0.15 3 1.35 3 NIK 10751 86
CAD 1.0222 16 1.34 -1 3.50 0 TSE 11980 23
AUD 0.9177 31 4.88 1 5.67 1 ASX 4818 4
NZD 0.7028 24         HSI 21210 18
CNY 6.8265 11         SSEC 3013 38
EUR vs. GBP vs.   CHF vs.  
JPY 124.37 52 JPY 136.71 32   JPY 85.25 50
GBP 90.98 17 CHF 160.36 56   Gold 1117.8 9.52
CHF 1.4589 25         WTI 82.70 0.53
 



Extensive Free Daily Technical Chart Points

3/11/2010 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
Close 1.3677 90.54 1.0686 1.5058 1.0234
High 1.3687 90.71 1.0731 1.5066 1.0321
Low 1.3620 90.22 1.0680 1.4948 1.0231
Mov avgs EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
5 day 1.3633 90.32 1.0724 1.5042 1.0266
10 day 1.3623 89.57 1.0734 1.5055 1.0324
20 day 1.3610 90.02 1.0753 1.5298 1.0403
50 day 1.3920 90.48 1.0560 1.5742 1.0459
100 day 1.4334 90.15 1.0387 1.6071 1.0520
200 day 1.4329 91.84 1.0492 1.6213 1.0744
Pivots 1.3661 90.49 1.0699 1.5024 1.0262

Source: Free Global-View FX Database





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