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7/30/10 20:04
Target   3-Mo
4.50 Aust 4.88
0.10 Japan 0.24
0.50 U.K. 0.75
1.00 E-Z 0.83
0.25 Switz 0.17
0.75 Cda 0.99
0.13 U.S. 0.45
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 4.56 -8
Japan 0.15 -1
U.K. 0.78 -6
E-Z 0.78 -5
Switz 0.42 0
Cda 1.43 -7
U.S. 0.55 -4
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 5.20 -4
Japan 1.07 -2
U.K. 3.32 -9
E-Z 2.67 -5
Switz 1.50 -1
Cda 3.10 -9
U.S. 2.91 -10


 


 

Global-View Forex -- interest rate -- US dollar interest rate -- euro interest rate and others



The purpose of fundamental forex analysis is to forecast the future value of a currency. Interest rates are a key element in that process. The US dollar interest rate and the euro interest rate outlooks are the first tier relationships in forex interest rate relationships. The tables below show the us dollar interest rate target for the FOMC, the euro interest rate target for the ECB and comparable forex interest rate targets for the next five most important central banks. Use these data for your foreign exchange currency forecasting.

The professional forex traders at GVI have assembled acomprehensive array of monetary policy indicators for those trying to anticipate interest rate moves as a factor in exchange rate movements.In banking, foreign exchange is the buying and selling of actual balances by financial institutions who daily execute the transfer of substantial amounts of funds from one currency to another. Interest rates are the cost of funds that are traded and thus affect the value of one currency relative to another. It is the role of Central Banks tocontrol the price of short-term money (e.g. overnight to 3-mo interest rates) via open market operations and control of the money supply. Central Banks use monetary policy to control inflation. Almost all central banks target inflation to one extent to another.

The price of long-term money (e.g. 2-yr to10-yr bonds) is determined by the marketplace and reflects the outlook of investors and borrowers for economic growth and inflation in the long term. Generally, hot money tends to flow from where money is cheapest to where yields are highest. Long-term investors tend to seek out the currencies with the highest real (inflation adjusted) yields, rather than the currencies with thehighest nominal returns.

 The TABLE below is updated daily by GVI and provides the latest readings for short-term interest rates (central bank target andthree-month) and daily changes. It also indicates where futures markets feel 3-mo rates will be at various future times. Included as well is the current official target rate for money, the date for the next policy meeting, and the GVI outlook for that meeting.

The links below provide access to charts of short- and long-term interest rates for selected economies. There is also a chart showing how the futures forecast for interest rates have been at various points in time in the recent past. Also included is a table of the inflation measure that the central bank in question is targeting. Above target levels imply that interest rates could be tightened in the future while below target growth implies lower rates.

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES



7/30/10 GMT US   Month FF mtgs
Futures implied change        
SEP10 0.41 -0.01   Jul 10 0.1825 n/a
DEC10 0.44 -0.02   Aug 10 0.19 10-Aug-10
MAR11 0.51 -0.02   Sep 10 0.19 21-Sep-10
JUN11 0.63 -0.02   Oct 10 0.19 n/a
SEP11 0.78 -0.02   Nov 10 0.195 3-Nov-10
DEC11 0.97 -0.02   Nov 10 0.195 14-Dec-10
             
  Eurozone U.K   Switz Switz
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP10 0.93 -0.03 0.77 -0.03 0.20 -0.03
DEC10 1.01 -0.06 0.82 -0.06 0.32 -0.06
MAR11 1.08 -0.06 0.93 -0.06 0.41 -0.06
JUN11 1.18 -0.06 1.08 -0.06 0.51 -0.06
SEP11 1.29 -0.06 1.25 -0.06 0.62 -0.06
DEC11 1.45 -0.06 1.46 -0.06 0.73 -0.06
             
  Japan   Australia   Canada Canada
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP10 0.34 -0.03 4.78 -0.03 1.15 -0.03
DEC10 0.31 -0.06 4.83 -0.06 1.28 -0.06
MAR11 0.30 -0.06 4.90 -0.06 1.40 -0.06
JUN11 0.30 -0.06 4.95 -0.06 1.53 -0.06


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EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD



Global-View.com Chart Gallery
07/30/2010                
20:04 GMT   2yr bp 10yr bp DJIA 10402 64
USDX 81.54 -3 0.55 -4 2.91 -10 S&P 1095 6
  USD vs.     Fixed Income   NAS 2242 12
EUR 1.3062 13 0.78 -5 2.67 -5 DAX 6148 13
GBP 1.5693 84 0.78 -6 3.32 -9 FTSE 5258 56
CHF 1.0412 1 0.42 0 1.50 -1 SMI 6201 0
JPY 86.37 45 0.15 -1 1.07 -2 NIK 9537 159
CAD 1.0292 67 1.43 -7 3.10 -9 TSE 11729 1
AUD 0.9033 32 4.56 -8 5.20 -4 ASX 4494 31
NZD 0.7242 5 HSI 21030 64
CNY 6.7745 25 SSEC 2638 10
  EUR vs.     GBP vs.       AUD vs
JPY 112.82 70 JPY 135.54 2 GBP 1.7364 26
GBP 83.23 53 CHF 163.40 89 CAD 0.9297 26
CHF 1.3600 12 CAD 1.6152 15 CHF 1.0625 4
AUD 1.4459 64   JPY vs.   NZD 1.2464 37
CAD 1.3443 100 CHF 82.95 44 Commodities
  CHF vs. CAD 1.191 -13 Gold 1181.4 13.55
CAD 1.0625 38 AUD 78.02 -12 WTI 77.93 0.44
                   
                   



Extensive Free Daily Technical Chart Points

7/30/2010 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
Close 1.3054 86.43 1.0401 1.5702 1.0267
High 1.3093 86.93 1.0465 1.5722 1.0375
Low 1.2981 85.95 1.0364 1.5553 1.0264
Mov avgs EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
5 day 1.3023 87.09 1.0491 1.5593 1.0337
10 day 1.2951 87.09 1.0499 1.5433 1.0392
20 day 1.2825 87.51 1.0520 1.5310 1.0416
50 day 1.2480 89.30 1.0976 1.4959 1.0434
100 day 1.2851 90.91 1.0898 1.5020 1.0305
200 day 1.3592 90.53 1.0642 1.5546 1.0413
Pivots 1.3043 86.44 1.0410 1.5659 1.0302

Source: Free Global-View FX Database





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