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Market Tracker

7/30/10 20:04
Target   3-Mo
4.50 Aust 4.88
0.10 Japan 0.24
0.50 U.K. 0.75
1.00 E-Z 0.83
0.25 Switz 0.17
0.75 Cda 0.99
0.13 U.S. 0.45
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 4.56 -8
Japan 0.15 -1
U.K. 0.78 -6
E-Z 0.78 -5
Switz 0.42 0
Cda 1.43 -7
U.S. 0.55 -4
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 5.20 -4
Japan 1.07 -2
U.K. 3.32 -9
E-Z 2.67 -5
Switz 1.50 -1
Cda 3.10 -9
U.S. 2.91 -10


 


 


The Daily Forex View

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


FRIDAY: Soft U.S. Data

13:00 GMT- July 30 (global-view.com) Forex Trading centered around the release of the first estimate of 2Q10 GDP early Friday. the data were even weaker than expected and reinforced concerns that the U.S. economy has recently been in a slowing pattern. The news came on the heels of comments by St. Louis Fed president Bullard Thursday, who has generally been thought to be one of the more hawkish Fed policy board members. Bullard warned about the RISK of  the U.S. heading into an extended Japanese-like deflationary period and raised the possibility of another round of quantitative easing by the Fed. 

These concerns hit U.S. equity prices yesterday and spilled over into Asian trading Friday. End of month JPY demand saw the JPY gain vs. the USD and EUR and weighed on the Nikkei. Keep in mind the line in the sand for USDJPY is the 85.00 level, although below 90.00 in uncomfortable for many.

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Chinese PMI data. In Europe , EZ, Swiss and U.K. PIM Data are due.  In North America,   U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction data are awaited Canada will be closed for a holiday.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:04
EUR 1.3062 -13 JPY 112.82 -70 JPY 135.54 2
GBP 1.5693 84 GBP 83.23 -53 CHF 163.40 89
CHF 1.0412 1 CHF 1.3600 -12 CHF vs.    
JPY 86.37 -45       JPY 82.95 -44

The EURUSD is now steady on the day and the GBPUSD is up. The EURGBP cross is down Traders still are aware of the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is always politically vulnerable.

The EURCHF is down. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses.. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. 

The USDJPY is lower and the EURJPY cross is down sharply. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

Commodity         20:04
CAD 1.0292 -67 AUD 0.9033 32 Gold 1181 13.55
CNY 6.7745 -25 NZD 0.7242 5 WTI 77.93 -0.44

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are stronger vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently hiked interest rates by 25bps. The BOC sent mixed signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA is unlikely to tighten in August. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We have favored AUD, CAD, gold and oil recently, but doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed lower. European bourses were mixed. U.S. equities are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.92%, -7 bps. 

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

Equities           20:04
NIK 9537 -159 DAX 6148 13 DJIA 10402 -64
HSI 21030 -64 FTSE 5258 -56 S&P 1095 -6
SSEC 2638 -10 SMI 6201 0 NAS 2242 -12
ASX 4494 -31       TSE 11729 1

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


Important Notice

The information upon which Global Viewpoint, Inc. Bases its Forex analyses is obtained from sources it believes are reliable, but Global Viewpoint, Inc. Does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, timeliness or completeness of any of the information, content, views, opinions, recommendations or services, contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from any of the services contained on the Global-View site, and use of the information provided on this web site is at your sole risk. Global-View specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate any purchase, sale or trade. 

Opinions expressed on the forum pages are not necessarily those of Global Viewpoint, Inc. In using the forums you should not assume that any messages provided have been reviewed by Global- Viewpoint, inc., or that such communications contain correct information, Global Viewpoint, Inc. Disclaims any warranty, whether express or implied including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to the service or any materials and products. None of the materials presented on our web site are to be regarded as investment advice. 

In no event shall Global Viewpoint, Inc. And other information providers, be liable for direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, or consequential damages of any kind whatsoever, with respect to the service, the materials and the products.

copyright 2010 global-view.com

 

The Daily Forex View is produced twice on most sessions by the forex trading professionals at Global-View.com. The Daily Forex View report is not intended to be a market recap. Market recaps are available in hundreds of places on the web. The Daily Forex View mission is to support forex traders by zeroing in on what we feel factors (economic, political, technical, etc.) are that will likely to be driving forex markets in the days and weeks ahead. That means that on one day The Daily Forex View might be focused on sovereign debt issues in Europe and the next day a Bank of Canada policy decision. The point is that the analysis methodology changes as the markets evolve. Some experts describe forex analysis as similar to solving an intricate puzzle. It is always a question each day of fitting the pieces together and the Daily Forex View is your guide.

One dimension that characterizes this analysis is a broad view of the inter-relationships of markets. Each day The Daily Forex View focuses on major international equity markets, commodities, commodity currencies, short- and long-term interest rates, central bank monetary policies, major dollar and cross-currency forex relationships. Global financial markets become more closely integrated with each passing day. You cannot grasp what’s happening in any piece of the markets without having a feel for the whole. The Daily Forex View is your resource to help you make better trading decisions.

The Daily Forex View is always a work in progress. The opening (NY) Daily Forex View report flows into the Asian Daily Forex View opening piece, which then sets the stage for next Daily Forex View version. Friday ends with a weekly edition, which takes a longer range perspective. The bottom line of all analyses is their implications for a given currency pair. It is The Daily Forex View goal that traders will use the The Daily Forex View report to stimulate discussions on the various Global-View forums.

 



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EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD



Global-View.com Chart Gallery
07/30/2010                
20:04 GMT   2yr bp 10yr bp DJIA 10402 64
USDX 81.54 -3 0.55 -4 2.91 -10 S&P 1095 6
  USD vs.     Fixed Income   NAS 2242 12
EUR 1.3062 13 0.78 -5 2.67 -5 DAX 6148 13
GBP 1.5693 84 0.78 -6 3.32 -9 FTSE 5258 56
CHF 1.0412 1 0.42 0 1.50 -1 SMI 6201 0
JPY 86.37 45 0.15 -1 1.07 -2 NIK 9537 159
CAD 1.0292 67 1.43 -7 3.10 -9 TSE 11729 1
AUD 0.9033 32 4.56 -8 5.20 -4 ASX 4494 31
NZD 0.7242 5 HSI 21030 64
CNY 6.7745 25 SSEC 2638 10
  EUR vs.     GBP vs.       AUD vs
JPY 112.82 70 JPY 135.54 2 GBP 1.7364 26
GBP 83.23 53 CHF 163.40 89 CAD 0.9297 26
CHF 1.3600 12 CAD 1.6152 15 CHF 1.0625 4
AUD 1.4459 64   JPY vs.   NZD 1.2464 37
CAD 1.3443 100 CHF 82.95 44 Commodities
  CHF vs. CAD 1.191 -13 Gold 1181.4 13.55
CAD 1.0625 38 AUD 78.02 -12 WTI 77.93 0.44
                   
                   



Extensive Free Daily Technical Chart Points

7/30/2010 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
Close 1.3054 86.43 1.0401 1.5702 1.0267
High 1.3093 86.93 1.0465 1.5722 1.0375
Low 1.2981 85.95 1.0364 1.5553 1.0264
Mov avgs EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
5 day 1.3023 87.09 1.0491 1.5593 1.0337
10 day 1.2951 87.09 1.0499 1.5433 1.0392
20 day 1.2825 87.51 1.0520 1.5310 1.0416
50 day 1.2480 89.30 1.0976 1.4959 1.0434
100 day 1.2851 90.91 1.0898 1.5020 1.0305
200 day 1.3592 90.53 1.0642 1.5546 1.0413
Pivots 1.3043 86.44 1.0410 1.5659 1.0302

Source: Free Global-View FX Database





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