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2/3/12 21:04
Target   3-Mo
4.25 Aust 4.65
0.10 Japan 0.20
0.50 U.K. 1.08
1.00 E-Z 1.10
0.00 Switz 0.08
1.00 Cda 1.39
0.13 U.S. 0.53
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 3.35 14
Japan 0.14 0
U.K. 0.43 3
E-Z 0.20 1
Switz 0.06 4
Cda 1.04 5
U.S. 0.24 1
   
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 3.96 12
Japan 0.96 0
U.K. 2.18 10
E-Z 1.94 11
Switz 0.80 6
Cda 2.02 8
U.S. 1.93 10

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Forex Analysis

   Trade Talk: What's Moving Markets continuous on Forex Forum

  • Key Items: AU- Retail Sales, DE- Industrial Orders, CA- Ivey PMI.

  • January jobs growth released on Friday saw U.S.  Employment increase by 246K. This was well in excess of the +150K expected. Furthermore, the underlying data were solid as well. It is possible that unseasonably warm winter in the U.S. positively impacted the data.

  • Some felt the data might impact Fed policy over time if the improvement in the economy is sustained. 

  • Congressional Budget Committee testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke Thursday broke no new ground. The Fed policy bias remains dovish.

  • A Greek bailout deal is now expected on Monday. Peripheral  bond yields have been easing. 

  • End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? 

Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

 

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 21:04
EUR 1.3143 -4 JPY 100.61 44 JPY 121.07 67
GBP 1.5816 13 GBP 83.10 -9 CHF 145.24 40
CHF 0.9183 18 CHF 1.2069 20 CHF vs.    
JPY 76.55 36       JPY 83.36 23

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

Commodity         21:04
CAD 0.9933 -60 AUD 1.0775 69 Gold 1725 -34.16
CNY 6.3027 10 NZD 0.8355 22 WTI 97.70 1.13

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

Equities           21:04
NIK 8832 -45 DAX 6767 111 DJIA 12861 155
HSI 20757 18 FTSE 5901 105 S&P 1345 20
SSEC 2313 0 SMI 6153 0 NAS 2906 46
ASX 4251 -17       TSE 12581 46

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.

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The information upon which Global Viewpoint, Inc. Bases its Forex analyses is obtained from sources it believes are reliable, but Global Viewpoint, Inc. Does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, timeliness or completeness of any of the information, content, views, opinions, recommendations or services, contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from any of the services contained on the Global-View site, and use of the information provided on this web site is at your sole risk. Global-View specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate any purchase, sale or trade. 

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The Daily Forex View is produced on most sessions by the forex trading professionals at Global-View.com. The Daily Forex View report is not intended to be a market recap. Market recaps are available in hundreds of places on the web. The Daily Forex View mission is to support forex traders by zeroing in on what we feel factors (economic, political, technical, etc.) are that will likely to be driving forex markets in the days and weeks ahead. That means that on one day The Daily Forex View might be focused on sovereign debt issues in Europe and the next day a Bank of Canada policy decision. The point is that the analysis methodology changes as the markets evolve. Some experts describe forex analysis as similar to solving an intricate puzzle. It is always a question each day of fitting the pieces together and the Daily Forex View is your guide.

One dimension that characterizes this analysis is a broad view of the inter-relationships of markets. Each day The Daily Forex View focuses on major international equity markets, commodities, commodity currencies, short- and long-term interest rates, central bank monetary policies, major dollar and cross-currency forex relationships. Global financial markets become more closely integrated with each passing day. You cannot grasp what’s happening in any piece of the markets without having a feel for the whole. The Daily Forex View is your resource to help you make better trading decisions.

The Daily Forex View is always a work in progress. The opening (NY) Daily Forex View report flows into the Asian Daily Forex View opening piece, which then sets the stage for next Daily Forex View version. Friday ends with a weekly edition, which takes a longer range perspective. The bottom line of all analyses is their implications for a given currency pair. It is The Daily Forex View goal that traders will use the The Daily Forex View report to stimulate discussions on the various Global-View forums.

 



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2/3/2012 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
Close 1.3146 76.55 0.9183 1.5809 0.9939
High 1.3205 76.74 0.9232 1.5860 1.0033
Low 1.3065 76.11 0.9122 1.5749 0.9923
Mov avgs EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD
5 day 1.3129 76.28 0.9177 1.5777 0.9994
10 day 1.3113 76.80 0.9197 1.5716 1.0020
20 day 1.2951 76.83 0.9328 1.5560 1.0094
50 day 1.3054 77.33 0.9334 1.5571 1.0176
100 day 1.3348 77.14 0.9169 1.5663 1.0195
200 day 1.3816 78.15 0.8742 1.5945 0.9961
Pivots 1.3139 76.47 0.9179 1.5806 0.9965
Source: Global-View FX Database

Global-View.com Chart Gallery
2/3/2012                
21:04 GMT   2yr bp 10yr bp DJIA 12861 155
USDX 7.53 -7 0.24 1 1.93 10 S&P 1345 20
  USD vs.     Fixed Income   NAS 2906 46
EUR 1.3143 4 0.20 1 1.94 11 DAX 6767 111
GBP 1.5816 13 0.43 3 2.18 10 FTSE 5901 105
CHF 0.9183 18 0.06 4 0.80 6 SMI 6153 0
JPY 76.55 36 0.14 0 0.96 0 NIK 8832 45
CAD 0.9933 60 1.04 5 2.02 8 TSE 12581 46
AUD 1.0775 69 3.35 14 3.96 12 ASX 4251 17
NZD 0.8355 22 HSI 20757 18
CNY 6.3027 10 SSEC 2313 0
  EUR vs.     GBP vs.       AUD vs  
JPY 100.61 44 JPY 121.07 67 GBP 1.4677 75
GBP 83.10 9 CHF 145.24 40 CAD 1.0704 2
CHF 1.2069 20 CAD 1.5713 81 CHF 1.0120 8
AUD 12196 (77)   JPY vs.     NZD 0.0001 0
CAD 13051 (90) CHF 83.36 23 Commodities
  CHF vs. CAD 33.62 -67 Gold 1724.5 34.16
CAD 1.012 77 AUD 82.48 91 WTI 97.70 1.13
                   
                   

 


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Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

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