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21/10/14 14:00 A US Existing Homes con: 5.1 pre: 5.05
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GVI Forex Blog 05:21 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
(CN) CHINA Q3 REAL GDP Q/Q: 1.9% V 1.8%E; Y/Y: 7.3% (5 1/2 year low) V 7.2%E; GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.4%E - (CN) CHINA SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 8.0% V 7.5%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD Y/Y: 8.5% V Asian Market Update: China GDP edges above consensus but still slows to 5-year low; Apple posts strong earnings ***Economic Data*** - Source

sd sf 04:03 GMT 10/21/2014
$yen got down to here ... the range seems to be in 20 pt increments.


personally don't feel so negative on it now its down here - but if stock markets don't go along later then obviously further fall to 106.17 couldn't be ruled out.

GBP - just got offers coming in now @75 76 77

NZD is the one to watch this is right on the highs we have seen for some time @85-90

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Mostly a consolidation day for the indices after the sharp rallies. The Chinese Q3 GDP is to be

Morning Briefing : 21-Oct-2014 -0340 GMT

AceTrader Oct 21: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY AUD/USD)
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:57 GMT 10/21/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

21 Oct 2014 01:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.78.. In total stark contrast to yesterday's biddish tone in Tokyo session, dlr remains under pressure in Tokyo morning as renewed weakness in global stocks on Mon pushed the Nikkei in the red (N225 index currently down 92 points at 15019 after yesterday's spectacular 578-points rally to 15111, being the strongest rise in over a year).

Light stops were tripped after dlr met renewed selling at 107.01 n briefly penetrated NY low of 106.79 to 106.70. The lack of a recovery suggests intra-day downside bias remains for a correction of y'day's rally from a 5-week low of 105.20.
Traders cited broad-based yen buying on risk aversion due to the upcoming China GDP as street forecast is looking for Q3 annual growth to slow down to 7.2% vs prev. reading of 7.5%.
So short-term specs are buying yen/selling dlr ahead of the downbeat China GDP.
Offers are noted at 107.00/10 n more abv with minor bids at 106.70, stops below 106.60-50 are now in focus.

21 Oct 2014
AUD/USD - .......RBA meeting minutes:
'most prudent course likely to be a period of stability for rates;
despite recent fall, a$ remained high by historical standards;
in recent months there had been a further pick up in lending to housing investors;
members discussed importance for banks to maintain strong lending standards;
range of indicators suggested labour market was subdued but had stabilised somewhat this year;
forward-looking indicators pointed to modest employment growth ahead; wage growth to remain relatively slow near term, help contain inflation even with A$ lower;
historically slow wage growth consistent with spare capacity in labour market;
more timely indicators suggested moderate growth overall had continued into Q3;
consumption was likely to be supported by ongoing strength in housing; members observed most Australian iron ore production remained profitable following price fall;
members were briefed that Chinese authorities had scope to ease policy if needed to support growth.'

Syd 02:01 GMT 10/21/2014
China 3Q GDP +7.3% On Year; Market Expected +7.2%

tokyo ginko 01:37 GMT 10/21/2014
still eye 109.30..


LA Bar 01:21 GMT 10/21/2014
Is this shorts before China gdp? It looks like a setup if number is not that bad.

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:42 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
* China GDP, retail sales and industrial output in focus

* Yen stands to gain if China data stokes growth worries

FOREX-Dollar steady as currency majors brace for China data

sd sf 00:16 GMT 10/21/2014
some of my better performing strategies that trade ranges .. have come in buying GBP just ahead of 50.

obviously greater than normal risk with data ahead but thought worth mentioning.

$yen we really haven't seriously threatened 75-76 in today's session so far ... probably all comes together a little bit later... gold still above 1245.

RBA Minutes in 15 minutes first up.

Can Forex Trading Be Made Simple?
GVI Forex 23:50 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile

I am not sure the word simple should be in a forex trading dictionary or any trading dictionary for that matter but there is a way to look at the market that should make it clearer to trade. There are some in the market who like to project themselves as fortune tellers, but in the end all they are doing is pointing out the risks. There is no crystal ball for forecasting the future but there is a way to look at the market that should make it simpler to trade.

Can Forex Trading Be Made Simple?

GVI Forex john 21:43 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile

October 20, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales
  • Far East: JP- Trade. CN- GDP
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • Noth America: US- Existing Homes Sales, API Energy

dc CB 20:53 GMT 10/20/2014
AAPL repurchased $17 Billion in stock in the quarter

GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
00:30 JP Trade-- key economic sector
02:00 CN GDP-- critical economic measure
14:00 US Existing Homes-- top housing measure

01:30 AU CPI -- RBA target   
08:30 GB BOE Minutes-- key part of policy
12:30 CA Retail Sales--  key demand measure  
12:30 US CPI -- Fed targets inflation
14:00 CA BOC Rates+MPR -- policy seen steady
23:45 NZ 3Q CPI RBNZ-- targets inflation
01:45 CN HSBC flash PM-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE MFG PMI flash-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE SVC PMI flash -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG PMI -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash SVC PMI -- universal economic survey
08:30 GB Ret Sls --key demand measures
12:30 US Initial Claims--freshest jobs data  
13:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash-- universal economic survey
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US New Homes Sales-- housing measure

GVI Forex john 20:30 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile

sd sf 20:07 GMT 10/20/2014
for sure Red - I don't see it differently than that.

Today here we do have important date though so if it is out of line - the market will react.

Ebola in the USA
Mtl JP 20:00 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile

Nigeria declared Ebola-free in 'spectacular success story'; doctors say fluids saved lives

simply amazing (to me at least)
and hopefully an inspiration

london red 19:56 GMT 10/20/2014
sf, as you say, they retrace but buy the dip. all on an upward tilt for now. high of day pretty much as you expect and now that below 06, you fancy them to test the downside asia/london am. below 2792 brings on 12748 test. maybe they can touch the trendline if under there, or maybe we need another day or two. but you fancy it to get done before another upside run to take the high on this particular pullback.

Livingston nh 19:54 GMT 10/20/2014
Depending on what Republicans get elected the Yellen Fed could be toast - everybody needs a scapegoat // Ben got out of Dodge just in time but he took his map out of the Money Swamp

LAME DUCKS all around?

CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:45 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

sd sf 19:44 GMT 10/20/2014
don't get me wrong PAR - if Yellen says - well we don't look like hiking for 12 months - because everything could collapse at any minute - then I'm sure EUR would be a buy

but to me the US is not about to Fade away - just things aren't moving as fast as the market would like... so it rallies and it retraces.

sd sf 19:39 GMT 10/20/2014
every EUR rally seems to get retraced .. doesn't appear the safest currency to be in.

GOLD is above 1245 - so $yen probably has to test this 75-76 level soon and perhaps drop down to 58-60

which is going to boost AUD + NZD

Its all CHINA here in Asia today + RBA Minutes .. so some money to be made if your around to trade it.

Paris ib 19:38 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Plus the market is mega long USDs already.

PAR 19:35 GMT 10/20/2014
Yellen also more and more involved in helping democrats win mid term elections e.g. all that inequality talk .
Definitely no pro dollar .

Livingston nh 19:30 GMT 10/20/2014
If the FOMC stays dovish after Weds CPI it may have a problem into Q3 GDP fig - credibility is key - the predictive ability of the FOMC has always been questionable // week before US elections can FOMC still be downbeat?

PAR 19:25 GMT 10/20/2014
EURUSD trading higher as market afraid of another dovish Yellen surprise at the next Fed meeting .

AUD and a bit of geopolitics
Paris ib 19:25 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
“We are in a really tough period,” Mr Stokes said.

Another bear

Livingston nh 19:22 GMT 10/20/2014
SPX 1875 at some point tomorrow ?? Probably coming out of Europe -- ECB purchase program?? Peripheral yields higher on news that all sovereign is not equal?; AQR countdown

Paris ib 19:21 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
It's a relative game. Whose balance sheet do you prefer? The FED's or the ECB's?

For now and going into the FOMC and the Mid Term elections risk is history.

Don't Worry

PAR 19:16 GMT 10/20/2014
ECB planning to buy all assets of bad bank Espirito Santo and all assets which Montei Di Passchi was unable to sell .
Should be good for Euro .

AUD and a bit of geopolitics
Paris ib 19:16 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
"China consumes about 60% of global iron ore production, an extraordinarily high share probably unmatched in history..... I adjusted my outlook downwards and proposed that iron ore prices would fall below $50 a ton before the end of the decade."

Bearish on the Australian economy, commodity prices but not necessarily on the AUD, where he sits undecided.... hence the possible Spain analogy where the currency was not the adjustment mechanism.

Makes interesting reading.

Australia is the New Spain

london red 19:04 GMT 10/20/2014
s&p 200 day 1908 (emini about 6 pts less)

MIXED RISK: IBM Earnings Report weighs on DJIA. Key Data Tuesday
Livingston nh 19:02 GMT 10/20/2014
re: IBM - old rule used to be $10 earnings marked a market watershed - post split $20 was the marker -- I don't think Big Blue slips into the fade of the other hi-tek folks - it still has more on the shelf than it can market yet

dc CB 18:57 GMT 10/20/2014
two people "wrote" this short report and to the joy of all, neither used the word "fraud" or any other Thesaurus implicated words or phrases. That's why 2 were assigned. One to keep watch on the other.

A federal housing regulator on Monday announced a plan that could ease tight credit and allow more people to qualify for mortgages in an attempt to get the nation’s housing market back on track.

The plan, announced at a convention of mortgage bankers, includes offering reassurances to lenders that fear they could suffer unpredictable losses on the loans they sell to the government.

The move in large part is intended to reassure banks that have had to pay tens of billions of dollars to settle legal cases in the wake of the housing crisis and buy back bad loans sold to Fannie and Freddie. To avoid having to make those payments again, many lenders now demand borrowers meet stricter requirements for loans known in the industry as overlays.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Unveils Plan to Loosen Mortgage Rules

Livingston nh 18:36 GMT 10/20/2014
any news on ECB purchases

Livingston nh 18:33 GMT 10/20/2014
PAR - treasurys are still not sure as yield drops - rates are still the key to currency and stock -- tomorrow tells the tale for stox (post opex) // full disclosure - I have looked for a second downmove since JAN w/o joy

MIXED RISK: IBM Earnings Report weighs on DJIA. Key Data Tuesday
GVI Forex Blog 18:32 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales

With the trading focus on equities, a disappointing earnings report by IBM weighed disproportionately on the fundamentally-flawed DJIA

RISK-OFF: IBM Earnings Report weighs on DJIA. Key Data Tuesday

dc CB 18:30 GMT 10/20/2014
I guess saying that there were way too many Short and they all got their a#s handed to them wouldn't make for much of a column...and it would make the Hallowed Bond Market seem too much like a casino.


Across Wall Street, a search for explanations has begun.

The white-knuckle move by the 10-year Treasury continues to stun traders and investors. “If you are steeped in bond market lore, you will be telling your grandchildren about this move,” James A. Bianco, president of Bianco Research, said.

In some ways, the wild ride could be shrugged off as one of those inexplicable things that occasionally happen in markets. But the plunge in the Treasury yield could be a sign of structural weakness in the market. And this volatility caught the eye of Wall Street’s main regulator, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At an already-scheduled meeting on Thursday with representatives of Wall Street bond-trading firms, Wednesday’s movements in the Treasury market were discussed....

The so-called Treasury Market Practices Group meets nine times a year at the New York Fed. It publishes an agenda and, after delays of several weeks, releases minutes of its meetings. The minutes for the September meeting, for instance, noted that the group had discussed market reactions to certain events, as well as failed trades in Treasuries.

Seeking a Cause After 10-Year Treasury Bond’s Unnerving Move

PAR 18:19 GMT 10/20/2014
James Bullard squeezed all the shorts out of the market just before the option expiration . So there are no sellers left in the markets .

london red 18:07 GMT 10/20/2014
Jay fwiw i use charts which combine sunday night session with monday. that way you get the full 24 hours for the monday session.

PAR 18:04 GMT 10/20/2014
As seen often recently, China will save the world . Chinese economic growth will be much stronger than expected . Chinese stock market has been performing very well , expectations of GDP growth came down to 7.2.-7.5 so annual growth around 8% will be greeted with excitement by the markets .

dc CB 17:43 GMT 10/20/2014
3 this week

1 done today $1.135
Tues $1.40 - $1.70 billion
Thurs $1.35 - $1.65 billion

Last one next Mon $0.85 - $1.05 billion

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:41 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile

Daily chart

london red 17:31 GMT 10/20/2014
daily. 6th and 15th october lows. not 5th which was the ltd as it would cross the 6th.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:23 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Red, what time frame for the trendline? I show 1.2700 on the daily chart and current 4 hour trendline is 1.2690.

london red 17:11 GMT 10/20/2014
euro making lower daily highs recently pulling back to trendline test today at 12670. tomorrow the trendline is at 12686, thats not far below tomorrows 20 day ma.
you fancy a test of todays low tomorrow, before an attempt to the topside. often euro shakes the tree to lose the weak fruit before any run up. as long as todays high is no higher than 12820/25 which is looking to be the case, we should test the downside tomorrow early to mid session and then we either continue or reverse to the topside.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:02 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
If you count 2 days when the high was 1.2699, it has been 19 days in a row that a big figure has traded in the EURUSD.

See now if 1.28 can trade to make it 20 days -- just traded so 20 days in a row. Incredible pattern on a day where it looked like 1,.27 would be the big figure that would trade.

Tallinn viies 16:54 GMT 10/20/2014
sold euros at 1,2794. stop at 1,2844
target 1,2690

dc CB 16:22 GMT 10/20/2014

I have always wondered what IBM does? I guess we got an answer today?

It issues debt and buys back its stock...

Or why going forward the end of QE and ZIRP will hurt "earnings"/share on Stox. After all IBM is a Bellweather.

IBM buys

dc CB 16:15 GMT 10/20/2014

all better now.

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