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21/09/14 14:00 B EZ Cons Conf prelim con: -10.5 pre: -10
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Can Forex Trading Be Made Simple?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 03:30 GMT 09/20/2014  - My Profile

I am not sure the word simple should be in a forex trading dictionary or any trading dictionary for that matter but there is a way to look at the market that should make it clearer to trade. There are some in the market who like to project themselves as fortune tellers, but in the end all they are doing is pointing out the risks. There is no crystal ball for forecasting the future but there is a way to look at the market that should make it simpler to trade.

Can Forex Trading Be Made Simple?

Central Banks Remain in Control: Outlook- September 21, 2014
GVI Forex john 23:10 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile

Yellen on Top
Fed Chair Yellen clearly is in control at the Fed. Recall that she is a labor economist. It is not surprising that her focus is on the soft employment conditions. She has been looking more deeply into the data than the headline readers and seeing the underlying weaknesses we have been pointing out for a long while. The "underemployment" in the U.S. is a major problem. As a result...

Click for the full report

Central Banks Remain in Control: Outlook- September 21, 2014

Livingston nh 22:11 GMT 09/19/2014
cb - these guys are in so far over their heads because nobody's been here before - the models they use blow-up if stressed - there was an article interview w/ the father of Forward guidance (Jackson hole 2012) Woodford, nobody says "tried but failed"

If the market spits the bit Yellen with whatever kind of repo is gonna look like Miller -- Ben escaped before the Tiger Dismount was required

dc CB 20:56 GMT 09/19/2014
Some market participants worried that a new limit on the Fed's reverse repurchase facility would hurt efforts to raise interest rates as quarters draw to an end when investors typically hunt for collateral. Others predicted the controversial tool would ultimately play a bigger role than the U.S. central bank let on.

In reverse repos, the Fed offers Treasury securities as collateral in exchange for cash from banks, large money market mutual funds and others, temporarily draining cash from the financial system.

According to the plan, the overnight repo facility, or RRP, would only be "supplementary," used "as needed" to serve as an effective floor under the main federal funds rate, and later shuttered.

At the same time, the Fed tripled the amount that each bank or fund could lend into the facility during its current testing and applied an overall $300-billion cap, less than the $340 billion in demand RRP faced at the quarter-end on June 30.

The new cap on what had been an unlimited facility raised fears that once the tightening cycle begins, and demand rises, financial markets could face unusual volatility on days that firms scramble for short-term collateral.

FED FOCUS-Wall Street sees holes in Fed's new policy-tightening plan

dc CB 20:49 GMT 09/19/2014
REPOS are the thing to watch from now on.
The FED noted that the Limit of $300 Bil would now be in place.

REPOs are a favored Window Dressing vehicle.

For Sept 30 ...the 3rd Quart Window Dress day, Da FED hs made and Adjustment to the Time...

Interesting if this becomes the End of Month time going forward.

Statement to Revise the Time of Day of the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operation for September 30, 2014

GVI Forex john 20:16 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Fitch affirms US AAA sovereign rating; outlook Stable- Source

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:52 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Weekly Trading Planner
dc CB 19:41 GMT 09/19/2014

the IPO

london red 19:26 GMT 09/19/2014
nh, time will tell. when the next small/large banana skin comes, lets see where it peaks and how fast they sell the blip.

Livingston nh 18:38 GMT 09/19/2014
Lead sled dog USD/SGD should hit ~1.30 and USD/JPY 115 lvl if bonds Kevlar fails

GVI Forex 18:07 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Catalan Parliament Passes Law Allowing Non-Binding Referendum

Livingston nh 18:03 GMT 09/19/2014
Despite the Fed 45 day extension of TAPER life support, the plug gets pulled next month on QE even as the Fed pushes into the end game of the business cycle -- the bias of the Fed reinvestment should be towards MBS rather than treasurys (see last wks Fed balance sheet purchases) -- there may be some buying of treasury bills on the way to what passes for normalization because this part of the balance sheet has been totally abandoned during QE

Now as the FED stops buying money (i.e., hoarding treasurys) we should get a better idea of where folks want to invest rather than where they need to invest - we will also see whether this money will move a bit faster // velocity has continued to move lower for the past 5 yrs but the last few months has seen some leveling off in some measures - given the amount of money available it will only require a modest uptick in this measure to juice things up // EM has endured inflation from QE while US is only beginning to see it as QE breathes its last

A lot of shorts in the belly of the yield curve, EU yields and ECB desperate, Fed slack yak and last NFP, CPI all encouraging bond bulls -- some many years ago the wkly Ms were the stat du jour but they faded like old movie stars as yields relentlessly fell during the "great moderation" which brought us the levels of today -- the new normal will look a lot like the old normal so time to watch M1 and M2 again (maybe M3 will do a Lazarus) -- Velocity is the key

But bonds are still bullet proof, right? Right??

Weekly Trading Planner
New York GVI Calendar 17:13 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
13:00 EZ Draghi EU Parliament  policy dove
14:00 US Existing Homes  Top housing number seen better.
01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI Economic sentiment survey
07:28 DE MFG &SVC PMI flash Economic sentiment survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG & SVC PMI  Economic sentiment survey
12:30 CA Retail Sales Consumer demand flat?
13:45  US Mfg MKt PMI flash Economic sentiment survey
08:00 DE IFO Climate  Top indicator seen soft
14:00 US New Homes Sales  Housing stat seen better
17:00 TRY 5-yr  belly of the curve
.00:30 JP CPI  seen steady
12:30 US Initial Claims  correction seen
12:30 US Dur Goods  correction expected
13:45 US Markit SVC PMI flash Economic Sentiment Survey
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 Revised data
13:55 US U Mich final Economic Sentiment seen flat

Weekly Trading Planner
london red 16:49 GMT 09/19/2014
didnt quite reached the $250bn mark. they tell me whether ever baba does it does well and kills the market. but its a lot to pay.
dec 10yr about 10 points off res at 124.08. if abv there i think it can rally briskly. cant see it without a dollar fall tho.

GVI Forex Blog 16:33 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
September 19, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Existing Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 22, 2014

Weekly Trading Planner
dc CB 16:26 GMT 09/19/2014
rolling BABA and YHOO profits into Bonds?
Top in?

it is Quad Witching tho

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 16:20 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile

September 19, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Existing Homes Sales
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Consumer Confidence
  • North America: US- Existing Homes Sales

Weekly Trading Planner
dc CB 16:08 GMT 09/19/2014
BABA at 98

BABA rank at 98

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
london red 15:54 GMT 09/19/2014
Closed call here. 1.2 times initial risk locked in. Put worthless unless dxy reversal

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 15:44 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
10=yr 2.598% 2.60% the focus

Weekly Trading Planner
dc CB 15:39 GMT 09/19/2014


The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households
Mtl JP 15:38 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
dc CB 19:54 re The Importance of...

debt: U.S. senior citizens owe $18 billion in student loans

Personally I think the aggregate is just too low. Maybe Grammy can help to raise the numbers ?

Weekly Trading Planner
dc CB 15:33 GMT 09/19/2014
Alibaba BABA yet to open. but now seen at $91-92.
larger market cap than JPMorgan

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 15:30 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Markets have moved into a MIXED RISK posture as of the Friday European close. The rejection of the independence vote in Scotland by a margin of 55-45% was the major news of the day. .Betting markets had a better handle on the vote than pollsters.  A BOE rate hike is back of the table for early 2015

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.046%, -4.4bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.541% -4.7bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.616%,  -1.1bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed higher . Bourses in Europe are ending  up. U.S. share futures are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

london red 15:18 GMT 09/19/2014
holds 100 day ma and test 16321 fib. if can move higher here to test 43/47 we might have a temporary low in place. a failure here and subsequent break of 100 day ma points to test of 6277/80 and 50.

My Levels Work
london red 15:04 GMT 09/19/2014
euro. the way the dxy is now set up at prev high, euro must trade thru trendline support at 12827 or risk is for todays close to be 129+

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 15:04 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
10-yr= 2.618%

My Levels Work
london red 14:32 GMT 09/19/2014
cable. breaks 21 fib and trendline briefly. if can sustain itself below, then next trendline is at 16251 which is also 200 hour ma. but at 16277/80 we have pretty critical support (pre gap low and fib). below there 16050 in play again. but weve come down a long way and market can spring a bear trap under 77 to 50 and back. res 16343/47.
dxy attacking highs as i write. move abv 84.66 is bullish targets prev high of 84.75. a weekly close abv really sets this rocket off. its overbought but when has that mattered.

Weekly Trading Planner
london red 14:22 GMT 09/19/2014
PAR, banks do want the money. but not to lend. too much time/resources/opportunity cost. now a state created bank in theory could advantage of tltro and lend. that would make sense. and do some good. and help the little guy who needs the loan. which is why it wont happen.

U.S. Leading Indicators August 2014
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile

+0.20% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.

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Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 13:56 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
10-yr = 2.618%

Weekly Trading Planner
PAR 13:54 GMT 09/19/2014
If the banks dont want the ECB money . Why NOT give It directly To the People as Draghi is playing with taxpayers money anyhow .

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
all about Alibaba today and CNBC infomercial for NYSE.

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
london red 13:33 GMT 09/19/2014
Bought daily call 109 and put 10930 combo. Cost 15 ticks if close within envelope. So looking for a move off the 200 day ma. Lvls 10876 10897 10914 10921 10930 10950

PAR 13:16 GMT 09/19/2014
Catalans vote with their hart NOT their wallet.

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Core BOC Inflation unexpectedly above central bank target. Raises questions about policy.

Weekly Trading Planner
Livingston nh 12:40 GMT 09/19/2014
Monthly Options expiry today (stox, futures, etc) for Sept (Q3 end) -- so maybe some action or commentary

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
london red 12:39 GMT 09/19/2014
loonie stopped for small gain. core cpi is much stronger. if stays under 200 day ma we are back to 10865/40 territory. will let this one play out for now as a break below if going to be a fast one. if stays below 10921 fib and 25/30 area, good risk of the break happening. abv there you fancy the long with stop under 200 day.

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI. Core CPI higher..

Livingston nh 12:33 GMT 09/19/2014
There may be some add'l pressure as the TLTRO gets judged - one estimate has the re-fi portion as high as 75% so the core took less than 10% of its eligibility amount

Some folks think December is more important

Seems banks don't think loan demand is high enough (or will be) for the next two years

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile

yy: +2.10% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.70% prev.
mm: 0.0% vs. 0.0% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.0% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
london red 12:21 GMT 09/19/2014
think fx has eye on bonds. 10 yr dec has couple of long tails on daily candles. we got 3 of those back in july and ran 3 points higher. not suggesting the same but a bit of a rally possible as come a long way. first res 124.08 some way off still. so do you buy 108.45/50 or wait for 107.85.

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Livingston nh 12:20 GMT 09/19/2014
John - any effect anymore on yen from Japan 1/2 yr end? maybe w/ the move of the last month we get a little more volatility?

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 12:18 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
S&P to USDJPY not trading well together recently. S&P looking little heavy?

My Levels Work
london red 12:17 GMT 09/19/2014
fib lvl 16321. saves fall initially. just abv trendline. top side res 43/47. second trendline and 200 hour at 16248 with fib on way dwn at 16277.

loonie update
london red 12:10 GMT 09/19/2014
raising stop to 48 ahead of cpi. inflation isnt likely to beat (if anything a miss) but if it does i suspect market tests 10921/15 where i would buy again with stop a little under figure.
big option pack worth a few yards 10930/11025 with end oct expiry may keep pair shackled so tp somewhere c.110/11020

My Levels Work
london red 12:03 GMT 09/19/2014
updated trendlines for cable 16318 and 16248. 43/47 should now cap. abv bias still negative but less so.

GVI Forex 11:56 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Catalonia may be pressuring EUR

* Spanish 10-year bond yields bounce off day's lows after catalonia president says to call referendum - tradeweb

Source: FXWire Pro - Money Market

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