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31/07/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales mo con: 1.10% pre: -0.60%
31/07/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales yr con: 1.40% pre: 1.90%
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Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:27 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile

PAR 19:27 GMT 07/30/2014
Are we still allowed to buy RSX or does it fall under the sanctions against Russia ?

PAR 19:26 GMT 07/30/2014
Looks like US equities will close in the green as did Russian stock market .

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Mtl JP 19:13 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
phleezzz CB ... little consideration
some folks have 24" monitors

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
PAR 19:11 GMT 07/30/2014
QE and zero interest rates are no tool to adress unemployment and Yellen knows that very well .

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
dc CB 19:08 GMT 07/30/2014

scarey sheit isn't it. imagine sitting at the table arguing with that.

by the way that's directly from the NYT's art.

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Mtl JP 19:05 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
by gawd dc CB 18:54... could you not have included some warning with that ?!

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 19:02 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Fed agenda is

#1 to get out from under the Asset purchase program by the October FOMC without incident.

#2 improve the UNDERLYING employment situation, which remains a lot worse than the headline figures suggest. One aid to employment could be housing which remains particularly weak

This is the reality. plan your trading accordingly. Its going to take a long while to get the U.S. back on itS historical growth path. In other words DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH WAITING...

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Mtl JP 19:02 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
so I finally clicked the link to FOMC's statement, only to note they still peddle the idea of "statutory mandate ... to foster maximum employment and price stability" and still contrasting with Janet's "The mandate of the Federal Reserve is to serve all the American people, and too many Americans still can't find a job and worry how they will pay their bills and provide for their families. The Federal Reserve can help, if it does its job effectively. We can help ensure that everyone has the opportunity to work hard and build a better life. We can ensure that inflation remains in check and doesn't undermine the benefits of a growing economy. We can and must safeguard the financial system." that she claimed on October 9, 2013
I do wonder ... about who, besides the inflowing folks across the southern border, wants to "work hard".

Finally a Person Fined
dc CB 19:00 GMT 07/30/2014
The penalty handed down by Judge Jed S. Rakoff of the Federal District Court in Manhattan on Wednesday comes after a jury in October found Bank of America liable for selling the questionable loans to the government-sponsored entities in the run-up to the financial crisis.

The jury also found a top manager at Bank of America’s Countrywide Financial unit liable for the sale of the loans, which were originated as part of a program nicknamed the “hustle,” which linked bonuses to how fast bankers could originate loans.

The judge also fined the former executive, Rebecca S. Mairone, $1 million, for her role in the scheme.

Bank of America Ordered to Pay Nearly $1.3 Billion in Mortgage Case

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
PAR 18:55 GMT 07/30/2014
For Yellen the glas is Always half empty . She has an hidden agenda .

U.S. Data Releases Do Not Disappoint. U.S. GDP Set the Tone Active Calendar Thursday
GVI Forex Blog 18:54 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Retail Sales, Employment, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI

A steady Fed Policy Decision was as expected. The markets appeared to be mildly disappointed by the dovish aspects of the statement and focused mostly on this statement. " Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further..."

U.S. Data Releases Do Not Disappoint. U.S. GDP Set the Tone Active Calendar Thursday

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
dc CB 18:54 GMT 07/30/2014

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday affirmed its commitment to stimulate the economy in a policy statement that said labor market conditions remained a “significant” distance from good health.

Fed Maintains Monetary Course but Emphasizes Job Weakness

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
at least kool aid drinker Janet refrained form picking on a specific stox sector

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 18:46 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD has worked its way back higher on the less hawkish than expected Fed. I don't see this as a surprise in any way. Labor conditions in the U.S. continue to be poor. Recall last month that a 800K monthly increase in part-time jobs masked a 500K decline in full-time employment. This is underscored by flat wage rates.

There was a report yesterday than no less than 35% of U.S. households are effectively in default on their consumer debt. Why should there be the rush to tighten and make things worse?

Central bankers are all drinking the same kool aid these days and now its all about slack in a given economy and there is plenty of slack in the U.S. if that somehow can be reliably measured.

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Mtl JP 18:26 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
the FED collective must be tone-deaf.

They do not appear to hear Sara Stevens' message that “The world has changed” . They continue to be behind times whining that "housing sector remains slow" and that "there remains significant underutilization of labor resources" all the while letting fly by them job growth areas such as debt collecting from the 77 million delinquent Americans.

The disconnect between the overlords' view of what they think should be and what is in the real world continues.

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Mtl JP 18:16 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Gold uP 2&1/2 bux, 10-yr yield down in synch since FOMC statement

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 18:13 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Key focus of the market...

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable..."

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Mtl JP 18:08 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
9-1.. how democratic.
almost like a vote at the North Korean politburo

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 18:07 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Fed remains on track for an October end to QE.

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 18:06 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.543% vs 2.554% before the statement. Market seems to be reading the statement as less hawkish than hoped for.

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Fed Statement upgrades labor market. but says there remains a considerable amount of slack in the economy.

Press Release Release Date: July 30, 2014

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 18:01 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Vote 9-1 Plosser dossents

U.S. Fed Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile


Rates: Unchanged
Asset Purchases: -$10bln to $25.0/mo

RELEASE: Policy Statement

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

June 18 FOMC
GVI Forex john 17:39 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
For Comparison Purposes. this is a key section from the June 18, 2014 FOMC Statement...

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months. Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable...

Agree or Disagree USDJPY
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:11 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
USDJPY 103.02 (May 2 high) is key resistance, holding so far

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.556% +7.4bp

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
7-yr 2.250%
bid-to-cover 2.58 vs. 2.44

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 17:02 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
10-yr note selling off , at least momentarily

Watch Out for a Surprise
PAR 17:01 GMT 07/30/2014
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email to buy additional rights.

July 4, 2014 11:58 am

Has GDP outgrown its use?

David PillingBy David PillingAuthor alerts

Governments and the media obsess about it while statisticians endlessly fiddle – but what is the real point of GDP and can it ever be accurately measured?

What do the price of hair-salon services in Beijing and sexual services in London have in common? The answer is that, depending on how you measure them – or indeed whether you measure them at all – the size of the Chinese and British economies will expand or contract like an accordion.

Watch Out for a Surprise
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:56 GMT 07/30/2014
Equities coming off lows, perhaps betting on a dovish FOMC

Look for USD bids lying in wait (IMHO)

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 16:31 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
the Inventor Of Gross National Product Measure: Simon Kuznets, Hon ’56, Hon ’76, Professor .."understanding of national economies became virtually unsurpassed as his new economic concepts were explored, debated, and implemented. In fact, he later tried to show the U.S. Commerce Department that the GDP isn’t always an authentic measure of a society’s well-being, sometimes upsetting opponents to his views and theories."...

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:25 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Note how sensitive JPY is to moves in US yields....

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 16:21 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile

Credit markets have moved into a "risk-on" posture following a much stronger than expected headline preliminary headline GDP figure for 2Q14. We always warn to be careful to look more deeply into GDP data to see the impact of inventories. The ADP private payroll survey was a mild disappointment. A fear of higher interest rates has weighed on stocks.EURUSD is trading below 1.3400.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are broadly higher. Yields on the European periphery are higher as well. EZ 10-yr 1.17%, +5bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.60%  +5bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.54%,+6bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are lower . U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 16:18 GMT 07/30/2014

Definition of 'Pullback'
any day Stox don't make new alltime highs

Definition of 'Correction'
Stox down

Definition of 'Crash'
down more than 150 on the Dow

Watch Out for a Surprise
Paris ib 16:15 GMT 07/30/2014
Yields in the U.S. are up 5-6% in the middle of the curve today. The USD index is up just 0.34%. You can make the assumption that money will flood into the U.S. on the back of higher yields or you can suggest that money will stay away until whatever needs to happen to U.S. yields happens. Those buying USD on the assumption that higher yields will see an immediate flood of new money into the U.S. might like to reassess their timing. Don't assume there will be a huge rush to buy into a bear market in U.S. bonds. Yellen notwithstanding.

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 16:06 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
some definitions for reference:

From Investopedia:
Definition of 'Pullback'
- A falling back of a price from its peak. This type of price movement might be seen as a brief reversal of the prevailing upward trend, signaling a slight pause in upward momentum.

Definition of 'Correction'
- A reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index to adjust for an overvaluation. Corrections are generally temporary price declines interrupting an uptrend in the market or an asset. A correction has a shorter duration than a bear market or a recession, but it can be a precursor to either.

Definition of 'Crash'
- A sudden and significant decline in the value of a market. A crash is most often associated with an inflated stock market. Causes for a crash may include an economic bubble in which securities, or other investments, are trading at prices far above their intrinsic value, or a highly-leveraged market in which debt is used to finance further investment. Crashes are distinguishable from a bear market by their rapid decline in a number of days, rather than a decline over a longer period of time. A crash can lead to a depression in the overall economy and subsequent bear market.

Watch Out for a Surprise
Paris ib 16:03 GMT 07/30/2014
CB - the 7 year auction will be interesting today. The cost of finance is starting to move meaningfully higher in the States. We won't see the ramifications of that in the very short term but there will be consequences.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
london red 16:02 GMT 07/30/2014
JP, its a tough one. 80 day ema, today at 6910, has supported whole rally from mid 13 (1.54) on a closing basis. we got a false break below another trendline back in june at 167. this time the break below the same trendline has held (17050 c.) and we tested the 80 day ema today currently resting under it. from 154 to 172 is a long trend. imm longs are still apparent and a break of technical resistance will be seized upon in a rising dollar environment. youd expect the 200 day to be tested in such an instance.
sterling is still v strong vs other currencies and rightly so, since data is good and the economy growing well. there is room for improvement, such as wages growth, but the uk is in a lot better position than europe. but with that said, if higher rates are being priced in in the US, cable will be shackled. in such an instance you can expect a sideways to downtrend with strong rallies on solid uk data prints. that doesnt rule out a sharp fall during the initial price in.
bottom line think while under 43/50 still under pressure but caution warranted as well under daily lower bolli. if above 43/50 you look to 75/1.7. downside targets 61.8 at 6883 and then your 100 day. fed will go a long way to indicating if we should be buying dips or selling rallies.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:59 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
Market participants are looking past the excellent showing in the first reading of second quarter US GDP at other problem areas this morning. The ADP jobs data was uninspiring, raising fears about Friday's July payrolls data. The GDP data depended heavily on big, unsustainable inventory builds. And rumors that the G7 would publish a statement on Russia later today are also on traders' minds US Market Update: GDP Driven Gains Evaporate Early

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 15:56 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
wonder why Greenspan is aping what Ron Paul said earlier

ref Mtl JP 19:40 GMT July 29, 2014
Ron Paul: Stocks are in a bubble and will crash - on CNBC

Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 15:46 GMT 07/30/2014

remember yesterday's Stellar 5Y auction

OOOPPPPPS! $35billion and down 5% in less than 24hrs.

Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 15:38 GMT 07/30/2014
dc CB 20:31 GMT July 29, 2014
it's all aTwitter.
4% GDP, up from -2.9% almost a 7% rise...all based on Tweets and Adverts.
Yes that will be the headline tom morning. :))))))


Now what's a Gammy to do?


EM summer reruns
Livingston nh 15:31 GMT 07/30/2014
Although slightly delayed from start date of last summer's Taper Rout EM currencies seem to be following the same script --- I hope the FOMC enjoys lunch

JPY new best friend
Livingston nh 15:24 GMT 07/30/2014
seems that the JPY has dumped S&P for the 10 yr Treasury

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
2-yr last I saw 0.57% at recent highs

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 15:15 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
odds of gbpusd holding 1.69 for the day ?

GVI Forex Blog 15:14 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
July 30, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 31. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Retail Sales, Employment, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 30, 2014

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 15:12 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile
what is the us 2-yr note currently doing ?

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 15:11 GMT 07/30/2014  - My Profile

July 30, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 31. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Retail Sales, Employment, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI.
  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales, Employment EZ- HICP, Unemployment.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI, Natural Gas.

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