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FOREX FORUM
29/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 5-yr con: n/a pre: n/a
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Chart Points -- Trading Points
Mtl JP 16:41 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile


In case usdcad 200dma holds , some potential target considerations

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 16:36 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile

Europe markets went into a "risk-off" posture early and that set the stage early in the U.S. Sentiment changed mid-morning in New York trading when the latest Consumer Confidence reading was much stronger than expected.   The EURUSD is lower at 1.3408, -30 pips.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are ending lower and some yields are at multi-century lows. Yields on the European periphery are  mixed. EZ 10-yr 1.12%, -3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.55%  -3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly higher at their closes. . U.S. share futures are turning positive.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 16:35 GMT 07/29/2014
need to wait and see how it reacts to Gammy.
Usual is lower, but after the last meeting it jammed higher.

as I wrote when Yellen was doing the Humphry Hawkins, don't usually trade this, except for the "guareeteeeeeeed" downs:

1) whenever the Chair speaks before Congress.
2) whenever the FMOC meets.

Watch Out for a Surprise
london red 16:33 GMT 07/29/2014
took some time to break but now that they have, 9050 on swissy will be a marker for tomorrow. if held on a closing basis then dollar still up. fomc boxed into a corner must deliver goods or dollar bust vs the stronger majors. more on fomc tomorrow but market needs fed to step up as could be start of interesting phase for dollar.

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 16:25 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
dc CB 16:15 at what price dip u gonna buy ?

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 16:17 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
July 29, 2014, J.P. Morgan cutting hundreds of tech-support jobs
-
maybe not a good thing... in case Vlad/Chinese decide to play cyber hanki-panki
you gotta wonder if jpm is in trouble or something
-

Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 16:15 GMT 07/29/2014


No suprise here on the first day of the FMOC

FX Spot Volumes
Kazan 16:07 GMT 07/29/2014
Hello guys!
Can anybody know, Reuters Eikon for 1700 chf per month is only platform for have a look to FX Volumes (not number of ticks)

Is it alternative for retails trader?

Thank you before hands, Anthony

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:59 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
What Ever you do
Do not Listen to him

Never Listen to this Man


Sanctions
Paris ib 15:48 GMT 07/29/2014
Ruling party lawmakers propose altering Russian legislation to allow for automatic sanctions against foreign countries that the government includes on a special list of ‘aggressor nations’.....

Russia's response


Chart Points -- Trading Points
Mtl JP 15:45 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
there are two big components to the Daily Trading Outlook:
1) estimated directional price movement (i.e magnitude)
and
2) choosing the right pony(s) - some gallop some are lame

for that gv's chart-points are a decent useful tool.
not all the time, but often enough

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex 15:38 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
1.0839 = 200 day mva

G-V FX Chart Points


Sanctions
Paris ib 15:37 GMT 07/29/2014
Europeans have no real interest in placing sanctions on Russia - which would ultimately hurt European business. So this is just appeasing the United States.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:32 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Trading has been volatile this morning as participants react to a variety of positive and negative earnings reports out of major names, the EU sanctions on Russia, trouble for Portugal's BES and the very good US confidence data.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Volatility Returns thanks to Earnings, Geopolitics


Chart Points -- Trading Points
Mtl JP 15:30 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
usdcad 200dma currently in play

Sanctions
Dillon AL 15:25 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Cos they have to run it by Putin first to make sure he won't turn off the Gas tap especially the one going to Germany whose dependency is 1/3rd more in equivalent terms than the rest of the EU

Sanctions
Mtl JP 15:17 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
earlier the sanctioneers said they would publish names on Wednesday - tomorrow. dono really why the secretive trickle delays in this day n age of spying

Sanctions
GVI Forex 15:09 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
10:45 (RU) EU said to have formally agreed to next round of sanctions on Russia - financial press
- Said to have reached agreement on the composition of the new package of sanctions that include: oil sector, dual use goods, defense, sensitive technology.
- To be reviewed after three months.
- To publish a list of entities affected.

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Your Best Trade Today
tokyo ginko 15:03 GMT 07/29/2014
sold 50% nikkei @ 15690...let the other half run till 16250

GVI Forex Blog 15:02 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
July 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 30, 2014


Calendar -- Daily Forex News
GVI Forex john 14:58 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile


July 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision
  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- Mortgage Statistics, ADP Private Jobs, GDP, Factory Orders, Weekly Crude, 7-yr Auction, Fed Decision.



Sara “The world has changed,” Stevens
Mtl JP 14:36 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
amazing predictive power of that young lass:

U.S. homeownership at 18-year low in second quarter

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Homeownership in the United States fell again in the second quarter to the lowest level since the third quarter of 1995, suggesting many Americans are becoming renters. The seasonally adjusted homeownership rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 64.8% from 65.0% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. .. Many analysts say the housing sector will remain weak until first-time buyers return to the market.
-
The many analysts still seem to not get that The world has changed.

July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
So the employment readings improved in July. However the percentage saying jobs are plentiful are still very low at 15.9%

July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
GVI Forex john 14:29 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
from Conference Board Press Release:

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in July. Those claiming business conditions are “good” edged down to 22.7 percent from 23.4 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 22.7 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was more favorable. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 15.9 percent from 14.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” remained unchanged at 30.7 percent.

July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
GVI Forex john 14:24 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
I don't find the sentiment surveys PMIs etc to have a lot of predictive power. I find that they do give a decent representation of current conditions only.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
post data U.S. 10-yr 2.476%

July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
Mtl JP 14:17 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
bodes well for Friday's NFP
300-400K added new jobs ?

July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment. Conference Board Survey much stronger than expected.






July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Much stronger than expected. Here is one of Jay's surprises?

July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile




NEWS ALERT
90.9 vs. 85.5 exp. vs. 85.2 prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer




Direct links to primary data sources

Chart Points -- Trading Points
Mtl JP 13:52 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
usdcad chart points
Res 3 1.0839
Res 2 1.0829
Res 1 1.0816
Pivot 1.0806
bias is UP while above the Pivot
-
200 day 1.0839, currently resistance.
Bottom Line:
Should it give on closing basis we might see a power move uP

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 13:49 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD from 1.3410 to 1.3455 next day to possible 1.3478

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 13:47 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
all those events (FOMC, GDP, NFP) are for later in the week
-
lets see player reaction to sentiment of the us consumer first, unlikely to cause a storm day unless it prints way outside of estimate

note:
One-third of Americans are drowning in debt

More than one-third of Americans had debt in collections in 2013, according to a new study by the Urban Institute, which analyzed credit reporting data for more than 7 million consumers. The report is based on data from Transunion, one of the three major credit reporting agencies.

In order to be released to debt collectors, unpaid balances have to be more than 180 days past due. Of the 35% of Americans with non-mortgage debt in collections, the average outstanding debt balance was $5,200, according to the report. .../..

(the potentially good news part is that Debt Collectors are busier than ever so maybe their economic activity will boost the GDP reading)

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Although I feel the Conference Board Survey is an important report, I doubt it will be a market mover either way.

Watch Out for a Surprise
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:28 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
JP ( and others) _ I spell it out in my latest article

Watch Out for a Surprise


Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 13:22 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
what events r u talking about to make a "storm" day ?

only event on deck that has some potential to elicit player reaction is the us consumer confidence at the top of the hour
expected to print 85.5 vs previous 85.2

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Earlier posted video outlook



Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video Update

Calm before the event filled storm day. My bias working out within this tight range.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Lets see if EURUSD will find support at 1.3400.
If not we could fall another step to just above 1.3300. This has been a step trade downward.

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:07 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Support is around 1.3400, back above 1.3420-25 would be needed to slow the risk.

FWIW, the bias expressed in my videos is working nicely (note, I have been offering free access to them)

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 13:06 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD now ready to give way?

Crude looking heavy.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 13:04 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
No idea. Im looking for something new.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 13:01 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
john 12:56 it is player reaction to the US neocons wanting war

May 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20
GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
+9.30% vs. +9.80% exp. vs. +10.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday
Mtl JP 12:59 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
nh your call for "time for Mr. Market to stage an intervention" is revolutionary.

you do know how overlords view revolutionaries, ya ?

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 12:56 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
10-yr now 2.455% -2.5bp. Not sure what's going on??

Is anyone trading?
London Chris 12:53 GMT 07/29/2014
This is turning into a good trading day but the fall in bond yields is what does not add up. Maybe it is just curve flattening but I am giving up trying to figure this side out.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 12:52 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
12:33 / maybe there are some shorting opportunities

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex 12:33 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Risk on with blinders on (note DAX)
'
(RU) Russian Duma reportedly considering legislation branding the US an "aggressor nation," would ban American firms from working in Russia - blogs

- Source TradeTheNews.com

cable
london red 12:31 GMT 07/29/2014
Supp at 43 a break targets 09 but unlikely to go far with fed amd gdp tomorrow so better to fade. Res 64 and fig.

Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday
Livingston nh 12:29 GMT 07/29/2014
As usual the Fed bank presidents away from the money centers are the core of a change faction - closer to businesses and regional bankers where ZIRP is a problem, not a cure // Fisher's focus on inflation is being panned as the "boy who cried Wolf" and he is unlikely to make waves w/ a dissent yet -- his problem like many folks who decry "money printing" op by the Fed is that the Twist and the currently fading QE was a "buying money" op - it is not a coincidence that inflation is rising as the Taper continues

Folks have been saying the Fed is addicting the markets to cheap money - my view is the Mr. Market is not the addict but rather the enabler for the FED, the real Addict (see Yellen's constantly shifting excuses for maintaining current policy) -- time for Mr. Market to stage an intervention


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