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FOREX FORUM
26/11/14 13:30 A US PCE defl y con: 1.50% pre: 1.50%
26/11/14 13:30 A US Per Inc con: 0.40% pre: 0.20%
26/11/14 13:30 A US Initial Claims con: 288 pre: 291
26/11/14 13:30 A US Cont Claims con: n/a pre: 2.37
26/11/14 13:30 A US Dur Goods con: -0.60% pre: -1.30%
26/11/14 13:30 A US D/G ex-trans con: 0.40% pre: -0.10%
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BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Durable Goods Orders October 2014
U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
Headline: +0.40% vs. -0.60 exp. vs. -1.30% prev.
Ex-Trans: -0.90% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GBPUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:14 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile


One hour chart

Breakout level 1.5735

Little on top so suggest using the daily pivot point levels

EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:43 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile


I posted this one hour chart yesterday and pointed out the key trendline - note how it held today and 1.2444 held as the low.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 12:32 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
USD/JPY stayed below the 118 handle in the session. Former Japan MoF Official Sakakibara (Mr. Yen) believed that the current yen weakness phase was nearing an end and would unlikely to match its low of 124.14 before financial crisis in 2007.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: OPEC members stressing unity and cooperation ahead of Thursday bi-annual meeting


PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile


USD & EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System






BREAKING NEWS
PAR 12:13 GMT 11/26/2014
Data released by the US Mortgage Brokers Association indicated that mortgage applications fell 4.3 percent in the week ended 21 November. The fall comes after a 4.0 percent rise the previous week and is the first drop since 7 November.

House purchases declined 4.8 percent after an 11.7 percent gain the previous week.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approved was 4.15 percent versus 4.18 percent the previous week.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 11:51 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
FWIW- U.S. markets should wind down early for the week this afternoon in the U.S. In addition to the Thanksgiving holidays, parts of the Northeast U.S. will see a significant snowfall. This would be about a month earlier than normal. This could add to the rush to the doors this afternoon!

So look out for thin markets later today, but there should a lot of interest in the OPEC decision on Thursday.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 11:33 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    WEDNESDAY
    09:30 GB GDP Widest Economic Indicator
    12:30 US PCE defl y Top Fed Inflation Measure.
    12:30 US Personal Income Key to demand
    13:30 US Initial Claims Weekly Jobless
    13:30 US Dur Goods Industrial demand
    13:45 US Chicago PMI regional Indicator
    13:55 US U Mich final Long term Sentiment Survey
    15:00 US New Homes Sales Housing Metric
    15:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Existing Homes Sales 15:30 US EIA Crude Impacts Spot oil prices
    18:00 TRY 7-yr Treasury borrowing
    23:30 JP Core CPI Japan inflation
    23:50 JP Ind Out industrial activity
    THURSDAY
    US Holiday
    OPEC Meeting All day
    8:55 DE unem Kchg German unemployment
    9:00 DE fl HICP Key Metric for ECB
    13:30 CA Cur/Acct  Canadian External Accounts
    23:50 JP Retail Sales  Consumer Demand
    FRIDAY
    7:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer Demand
    10:00 EZ FL HICP Key ECB Metric
    12:30 CA GDP  Widest Economic Measure
    16:00 US Markets Close Early


EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2348
Melbourne Qindex 11:20 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/USD : The weekly cycle normal limits are positioning at 1.2520 - 1.2566 - 1.2778. The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position when the market is able to close above 1.2520 in the New York session.


Qindex.com


===========================================

Melbourne Qindex 00:27 GMT November 24, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2348 : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Projected Series


... 1.2179 - 1.2211* - 1.2244 - 1.2260 // 1.2276* - 1.2292 - 1.2308 - 1.2324 - 1.2340* - 1.2357 - [1.2373 - 1.2389 - 1.2405* - 1.2421 - 1.2437 - 1.2453 - 1.2469* // 1.2486 - 1.2502 - 1.2534* - 1.2566 ...

Quantum Index Analysis


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 11:08 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
November 2014 UK CBI Distributive Trades
U.K. Charts



-- NEWS ALERT --
+27 vs. +29 exp. vs. +31 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
kl fs 10:57 GMT 11/26/2014
abel, so sell gbpusd again now?

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
jkt abel 10:51 GMT 11/26/2014
kl fs, i warned you already...

RISK ON: U.K. 3Q14 GDP Were Unrevised. Pre-Holiday Data Dump From the U.S. Today
GVI Forex Blog 10:13 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, New Home Sales, Pending Homes, Weekly Crude, 7-yr

RISK ON: U.K. 3Q14 GDP Were Unrevised. Pre-Holiday Data Dump From the U.S. Today


ECB BUYING SOUVEREIGNS AT ALLTIME HIGH. WHO IS SELLING ?
PAR 10:12 GMT 11/26/2014
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that the prospect of ECB buying in is being priced in the Bunds and European Government Bonds, which is the replication of the kind of rally that happens in US between bouts of QE.

Key Quotes

“Staying on core rates it is also worth noting that 10yr Bund yields went through the October 15th's flight to quality all time closing lows of 0.756%. Indeed the 10yr Bund yield fell by 3bp to 0.748% yesterday. Its an impressive achievement as when we were at these levels in the stress of 6 weeks ago, Crossover closed at 401bp (now 334bp) and Stoxx 600 at 311 (now 346) so European Government bonds and even Bunds just keep on performing even with risk-on back in vogue.”

“Obviously the prospect of ECB buying is increasingly being priced in. One thing that makes us slightly nervous of this trade continuing is that the experience of the US was that Treasuries tended to rally most between bouts of QE and not during. So will it be a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" if and when QE happens?”

“However Japan's mega QE and still ultra low yields is a cautionary tale that the US experience isn't necessarily a fool proof template but maybe the BoJ are buying far more of the JGB market than their peers thus really completely distorting the price. So there are a number of things to consider but it’s not a slam dunk that bunds will continue to be strong after QE.”

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 10:07 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile

26 November-- 10:10 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets remain in a mild RISK ON posture early on Wednesday as equities are trading mostly higher. U.K. revised 3Q14 headline GDP  saw no changes, as expected. Today sees a pre-holiday data dump for the U.S. Markets in the States effectively are closed after midday.
  • In forex, the USD is mostly higher into data releases. The EUR is mostly lower on its major crosses. Gold is weaker and oil prices are steady heading into the OPEC decisions on Thursday.
  • In the Far East, equities ended mostly higher. In Japan, the Nikkei lost slightly and JGB yields fell.
  • European bourses are mostly higher. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is easier. U.S. share futures are up.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


ITALY
PAR 09:47 GMT 11/26/2014
Draghi has to do more to help ITALY .

FXStreet (London) - Italian consumer confidence declined in November, defying consensus expectations on a strengthening of October’s figure.

The index came in at 100.2, down on the 101.2 October print and below expectations of a strengthening to 101.6.

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
kl shawn 09:44 GMT 11/26/2014
short cable too 1.5687, stop 1.5725

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
kl fs 09:41 GMT 11/26/2014
happy thanksgiving! byebye cable!

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 09:34 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
U.K. revised headline 3Q14 GDP unchanged.


AUD .8500
nw kw 09:32 GMT 11/26/2014


xauaud heading to top of its channel 1412 first resistance at 1410 ,a/u .8480 if cant hold .8430 first target poss retrace .8470

EURUSD 12455
Amman wfakhoury 09:30 GMT 11/26/2014
Amman wfakhoury 15:22 GMT 11/25/2014
any rise above 12455 will return to it sell above it.
___________________________---
again 12455 reached.
and this call is ended.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 09:30 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
UK GDP-- 3Q14 revised
U.K. Charts




-- NEWS ALERT --

QQ +0.70% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.
YY +3.00% vs. +3.00% exp. vs. +3.00% prev.


RELEASE: U.K. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
jkt abel 09:27 GMT 11/26/2014
careful fs, it may spike up to take out your stop IMO before heading down

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
kl fs 09:22 GMT 11/26/2014
ok all in now, hopefully it does not make new high anymore


kl fs 04:20 GMT 11/26/2014
sell gbpusd 1.5701, adding above 1.5720 stop all 1.5757

EURUSD 12495
UK CH 09:22 GMT 11/26/2014
WFakhoury

Outstanding call



YIELDS
PAR 09:20 GMT 11/26/2014
The US Note future broke above first resistance (127-00+) while the Bund tested the contract high (152.49).”

“The German 10-yr yield is 2 bps away from the all-time low (0.72%). At the end of the day, the German yield curve bull flattens with yields flat bps (2-yr) to 3.9 bps (30-yr) lower.”

“In the US, the curve shifted in the same way with yields up to 5.9 bps lower.”

“Technically, both the US 10-yr yield and US 30-yr yield fell below the lower bound of the past month’s sideways trading ranges (respectively 2.27% & 3%).”

“The US 5-yr yield for now remains above that level (1.55%) but the margin is small. A sustained break would be a technical signal that US yields could drop further short term.”

EURUSD 12495
Central Kwun 09:13 GMT 11/26/2014
thx, wfakhoury master, swiss won't pass the vote, so just keep selling

AUD .8500
Sydney Help 09:12 GMT 11/26/2014
AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Buy or sell.????

EURUSD 12495
nw kw 09:05 GMT 11/26/2014
3 gold pares hade 150.00 up spike on my platforms poss sell

EURUSD 12495
Amman wfakhoury 09:00 GMT 11/26/2014
Gold keep it,s power and momentum and trading now in narrow range till coming sunday.awaiting Swizerland to vote on its GOLD reserve.

EURUSD 12495
Amman wfakhoury 08:56 GMT 11/26/2014
Amman wfakhoury 08:16 GMT 11/26/2014
12495 confirmed during Asia session , return 12455.

___________________
12495 reached

EURUSD 12495
Central Kwun 08:45 GMT 11/26/2014
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

wfakhoury master, yesterday you mentioned gold need to close above 1201 in order for 1205, but finallly failed to substain above 1201, may i know your latest prediction?

JUNCKER
PAR 08:17 GMT 11/26/2014
Voodoo economics . Invest and if you lose european taxpayers will pay . Privatise profits , socialise losses .

A really briljant idea .

EURUSD 12495
Amman wfakhoury 08:16 GMT 11/26/2014
12495 confirmed during Asia session , return 12455.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level



AceTrader Nov 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:09 GMT 11/26/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Nov 2014
EUR/USD - ....... This morning the single currency pared early losses as release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence in NY morning following upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (2nd reading) triggered broad-based selling in greenback. Euro rebounded strongly after a brief dip to 1.2402 and then rallied to session highs of 1.2486 b4 retreating to 1.2459 on profit-taking.

As euro has maintained a biddish tone in Asian morning, suggesting buying euro on dips for marginal gain above 1.2500 level is recommended, however, daily outlook remains consolidative and last week's peak at 1.2602 should remain intact today.
Although eco. data from EU countries due out in European morning may have little impact on euro, investors are unlikely to enter large position ahead of the release of a slew of U.S. data in NY morning.

At present this morning, bids was placed at 1.2460/55 and then 1.2440-30 with stops emerging below 1.2410, whilst offers from various accounts are located at 1.2490-00 and near 1.2520 with a mixture of offers and stops emerging above 1.2550.


GVI Forex Blog 04:47 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE Q/Q: -2.2% V -1.9%E; biggest decline in 11 quarters - (CN) China NOV Westpac Consumer Confidence index: 111.0 v 110.9 prior - (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CONSUMER C

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Shanghai hits new 3-year highs; Crude Oil slumps ahead of OPEC - Source TradeTheNews.com


A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
kl fs 04:20 GMT 11/26/2014
sell gbpusd 1.5701, adding above 1.5720 stop all 1.5757

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
Provo John 03:57 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Jay, is that the day you bought her a mink coat or am I thinking of someone else?

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:18 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile



One of my forex trading tips is not to be complacent, which is easy to do in a week like this where the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is not generally one when big bets are made. You can already see forex traders resigned to a holiday week where many in the US take an extended break. This does not mean you should not stay alert as I will explain in this Thanksgiving Tale.

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale


AceTrader Nov 26: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:13 GMT 11/26/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Nov 2014 02:00GMT

USD/JPY -....... Dlr weakened vs the Japanese yen on Tuesday after volatile sessions. Although price has rebounded after early sell off from 118.57 to 117.70 in Asia due to BoJ meeting minutes n comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who voiced concerns over the impact of the weaker yen on the economy, price briefly jumped to 118.30 in NY morning after upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (prelim.).
Later, dlr retreated to 117.72 in NY afternoon following the release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and then further to 117.67 in Wednesday's Tokyo morning.

Although intra-day's weakness in Asia suggests choppy trading with mild downside bias remains, sharp fall below 117.36 (Fri's reaction low from last Thursday's fresh 7-year peak at 118.98) is not envisaged as investors are awaiting the release of a slew of U.S. economic reports in NY morning.

At present, offers are noted at 118.00-10 and then 118.25/30 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 118.60.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.40-30 and around 117.10 with stops located just below 117.00.


Wednesday will see the release of German import prices U.S. GDP and CBI distributive trades, U.S. core PCE, durables, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, pending homes sales change and building permits.

AUDNZD
Sydney ACC 01:38 GMT 11/26/2014
And the TWI is higher than where it was on January 2. Last night's figure 69.0 versus 68.6.

AUDNZD
Brisbane Flip 01:29 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Despite all the headlines about "4 year lows" AUDUSD is only down a very moderate 4% YTD

AUDNZD
Sydney ACC 01:13 GMT 11/26/2014
RBA appears to be more aggressive nowadays talking down the AUD than RBNZ with reference to the Kiwi. NZ Finance Minister Bill English a couple of weeks ago indicated the government would be happy with NZD trading in the mid to high seventies versus USD.

Last nights statement by the RBA's deouty governor Philip Lowe that the RBA has room to lower interest rates if need be was to my understanding the most recent such indication. These kind of opinions are not formulated off the cuff. they are thought out well beforehand. Its possible therefore that the statement from next weeks board meeting could err further to the easing side. Given that outcome AUD will be in for a further hit.

NZD on the other hand is open to sharp declines from RBNZ statements. Nevertheless so far the Kiwi has rebounded in every instance.

Both central banks are probably cognisant of the impact QE in Europe would have on global financial markets for instance many European government bonds recorded historical lows yesterday.

The market has been factoring in for some time a cut in the Australian cash rate. Its been the market economists who have been tipping an increase. Many of these forecasters have now adjusted their opinions on an increase out to more than twelve months from now. Remember its the traders who back tyheir opinions with real money.


AUDNZD
Brisbane Flip 01:13 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
John I have normally steered pretty clear of AUDNZD (except at extremes)....the kiwi's spasmodic liquidity sees some pretty bizarro price action, saying that....

I think despite the headlines that AUD/USD is on 4 year lows, Aussie is actually pretty high versus Yen, Euro and even Kiwi and will come significantly lower. As I have blabbed a bit people look at interest rates and think "so when is the first rate hike" whereas I think after years of inflated consumption pushing Australia to the least affordable cities lists we actually have deflation in our future.
I got the same "it can't happen" "There is no such thing as deflation outside Japan" push back when living in Ireland in 2006/07. Now Australia is not Ireland but we have priced everything to perfection and have squandered a once in a lifetime opportunity where Government tax take ballooned but was spent just shortsightedly thinking everything extrapolates to the horizon.

Asia
Mtl JP 01:12 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
usdyen S1 Sup 1 117.56

Asia
gc sf 00:57 GMT 11/26/2014
it really was an interesting night and lots of data later to trade from ... but intra-day Asia .. I'm not expecting much.

$yen has gone from market leader to just a sideshow at present - that takes away a lot from our market... and how far things can move.

AUDNZD
gc sf 00:50 GMT 11/26/2014
one of the best guides to AUDNZD is the Westpac Wellington morning summary - Jay or John posts .. so I would keep my eye out for that John .. that would have a much better view than anything I have.

AUDNZD
Provo John 00:13 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Well, this cross is poking it's head below 1.0915 which has been a double bottom going back to July. I was to much of a ninny to go short at the double ( now triple ) top at 1.13 ( been burned too many times on AUD and NZD ).

So, would love to get some feedback Al, Flip, sf

USD falls as Yields fall
Mtl JP 23:59 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
probably a good position. players may take off some of their shorts ahead of Draghi's drivel to maybe try to resell again from higher level

Nota bene
Mtl JP 23:25 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Speech in Helsinki by Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank
Time Thursday, 27 November 2014, at 1.30–2.30 pm.

-
In connection with the visit to Finland of Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Finland will organise a seminar at the University of Helsinki. President Draghi will deliver a speech on the European economy, after which the audience will have the opportunity to ask questions. The event will be held in English.


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