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01/02/15 1:00 A CN NBS PMI con: 50.2 pre: 50.1
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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 23:05 GMT 01/30/2015
JP - anytime these folks start changing the goal post (alternative??) I get queasy -- exports he cites here's the deal Exports and Imports declined (i.e., TOTAL trade was lower) so we await December figures -- as I mentioned orders down inventory draws up because of oil price (deflation expectations, oh no!!)

Productivity = deflation // that's the way it works since Prometheus

observation
uk rg 22:50 GMT 01/30/2015
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

hopefully more so than this week

Deep Thoughts
dc CB 22:42 GMT 01/30/2015
"we need to be sure that we're not creating instant millionaires, people who don't deserve to be millionaires"

Pres of the Maryland Senate, quoted on NPR's All Things Considered in a segment about the Maryland Legislature as they debate the Legalization of MaryJUUUWanna, during this year session.

Thomas V. Mike Miller, Jr., President of the Maryland Senate since 1987

Mike


observation
uk rg 22:42 GMT 01/30/2015
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

observation
last weeks closing candle was 22 pips below monthly s3
this weeks closing candle is 36 pips above monthly s3
Would venture next weeks close candle will be green
gt


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 22:18 GMT 01/30/2015
looking forward to the appearance of Oracle, early Monday, for the six week Trend.

GWE


BUY BUY


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 22:11 GMT 01/30/2015
John - I'm looking at a much stronger economy (only missed Q4 by 2% on gdp) - the ISM comments from last month showed that expectations of lower prices affected orders and inventory draws -- the analysts (aaargh) are responding to the past // the risk is that they misjudge the Fed (even the Fed doesn't know what it will do) - like driving behind a drunk

BONDS -- money leaving risk perceived (Aaa, BBb) but ignoring simple rate risk -- could get really UGLY by JUNE

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 22:01 GMT 01/30/2015
JP fear of ?? - it's a typical flight to quality - stox scare treasurys jump //

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 22:00 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Look at the headline "RISK OFF". They are buying bonds due to fear about stock prices.

Professional bond traders focus on bond prices, not yields. So when stock prices fall bond prices RISE (lower yields). There is a difference here between "fear" and "calm " expectations for a weakening economy.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 21:54 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
john 21:50 normally cheap cost of money sees stocks rally
what d u think is currently "wrong" that is causing both cost of money and stocks go down at same time ?

Deep Thoughts
dc CB 21:50 GMT 01/30/2015
Well, not so Deep.

Hillary Clinton Faces Scrutiny for Use of Private Jets

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-29/hillary-clinton-flew-jets-on-taxpayer-funds-in-senate?hootPostID=b077bb0a4751b2db2ac9be636663e60a

With 4,000 in homeless shelters, D.C. on pace to eclipse record set last year


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
ugly close in stocks. Should carry over into Asia. Question wiull be what Europe and the U.S. will do.Monday sees an avalanche of PMI's. U.S. bond yields approaching recent lows around 1.60%.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 21:47 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
just had a closer look at the 10-yr yields
US - 1.652
IT - 1.67
haha,
must some all time records being set

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 21:40 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
nice pop into the close ... in Gold

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 21:20 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 21:20 GMT 01/30/2015
AND I can't resist the chance to debunk the oil price decline as a tax cut AND increased consumer purchasing power -- the oil price frees more money for other purchases it does NOT increase purchasing power or higher CONSUMPTION (only increased income or lower savings CAN ACHIEVE THIS)

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 21:16 GMT 01/30/2015
CB, well you know repeat customers get done from behind. either you start batting for the other side or you shop around. as for payouts, gone are the days. will you every loophole possible not to pay. seems impossible to insurance against human stupidity these days. believe its a problem if you have staff.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Paris ib 21:16 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
CB - welcome to the wonderful world of 'official' disinflation. Same here: everything goes up in leaps and bounds but the people at the Central Bank and the statistics office never seem to notice. And they certainly don't record it!! Falling flat screen television prices wipe out all those pesky real world price increases in stuff we actually use.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 21:16 GMT 01/30/2015
I got to keep my old policy. But that notice came in November--15% increase. but part of that is age related, as I turn another leaf in the 60's.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 21:11 GMT 01/30/2015
Wait until you get your new improved mandated medical insurance premium increase -- maybe premiums stay the same BUT your deductibles double - hmm but it is better insurance right ??

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 21:09 GMT 01/30/2015
Just suppose the UoM survey of inflation expectations are close to right

well I just got my 2015 auto insurance renew notice. Up 16.6% from last year. No violations, no accidents, no changes on my part, no reason my premium should have risen 16%.

The nice customer service lady on the phone said: well insurance rates are going up everywhere.

I said: but I'm keep getting told that there is no inflation, 16% rise from you.

She said: it's just...rates are on the rise all over, your rates are just doing a catch up to...to...well rates everywhere.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 21:01 GMT 01/30/2015
Just suppose the UoM survey of inflation expectations are close to right -- EVERY treasury yield is well below -- keep in mind the Fed ALWAYS panics

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 20:56 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
10-yr 1.659% -103bp
DJ -239
SP-26


CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:53 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details





CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 20:24 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
DJ -193
S&P -20
10-yr 168.3%, -7.9bp

OIL - is it over?
Livingston nh 20:06 GMT 01/30/2015
whatever it takes!!!

I'll put in my plug for TARIFF rather than gas tax -- keep the jobs here and put OPEC out of business

OIL - is it over?
dc CB 20:03 GMT 01/30/2015
Oh Really. That's what caused it? ISIS...
It wasn't coordinated Stop Run, that took out shorts going back to last Thurday. BANGING THE CLOSE....just slightly illegal...

ISIS

it's a co-inky-dink


OIL - is it over?
GVI Forex john 20:02 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
nh- I agree I find it hard to see how higher oil prices would help me. I have yet to see my utility costs fall.

OIL - is it over?
london red 20:01 GMT 01/30/2015
brent had a similar 5 pt rally back in oct last year. traded down to new low within 2 weeks. so lets not get carried away. a few religious terrorists on horseback does not a demand create.

OIL - is it over?
GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Now stocks are falling!

OIL - is it over?
Livingston nh 19:50 GMT 01/30/2015
John - there's a great example of conflict of interest at the highest level -- dogooders want higher oil prices but whine about the "evil" ISIS folks

OIL - is it over?
GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Amman, Jordan (CNN) ISIS militants have attacked Kirkuk in northern Iraq, an effort that might be an earnest attempt to capture the key oil-rich city or perhaps to divert Kurdish troops fighting to capture the Islamist extremist group's stronghold of Mosul

ISIS launches attack on oil-rich northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk


OIL - is it over?
Mtl JP 19:49 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
so now ISIS is ally ? ?

OIL - is it over?
GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
CNBC talking about rumors that ISIS might be on the move in Northern Iraq (Kirkuk). Driving oil prices higher. No solid confirmation yet.

OIL - is it over?
dc CB 19:35 GMT 01/30/2015
JP

Riding the Roller Coaster
dc CB 15:09 GMT
Commodities trade on "supply and Demand" , fundamentals LOL
avg swing 80 pts

WTI

OIL - is it over?
GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
wti closes at $48,24 +3.71. Higher crude is a boost to stocks.
higher stocks typically are USD positive.

OIL - is it over?
Mtl JP 19:27 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
dc CB 17:11 your post n link seems to be the rocketfuel that has ignited wti ... up over 2 bux since lol.

no I didnt trade it :-(

Global Markets News
Livingston nh 19:26 GMT 01/30/2015
SPX 15 min bounced off 40 ma so we probably go above yesterday's high in the next hour or so

oil
tokyo ginko 19:24 GMT 01/30/2015
oil is enjoying a mini rally for the last 2 hours..


Global Markets News
dc CB 19:12 GMT 01/30/2015
which way will the End of Month 2:15 Express run today?

Need a FED Speaker for a Rally

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Asset managers could face new regulation to prevent runs: Fed’s Tarullo

By Greg Robb, Published: Jan 30, 2015 1:32 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)—Federal Reserve officials are considering new regulation of the “shadow banking” sector, and specifically new rules to prevent runs in large asset managers, said Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said Friday.

Tarullo said regulators are worried that asset management vehicles hold relatively less liquid assets but allow investors to redeem their interests on short notice.

“There is a risk that in periods of stress, investor redemptions could exhaust available liquidity,” Tarullo said in a speech to a financial stability conference in suburban Washington, D.C.

Under these circumstances, a fund might respond by rapidly selling assets with contagion effects for the financial system that may be amplified by derivative transactions.

Large asset management firms including BlackRock, Fidelity and other companies have been arguing that they don’t pose systemic risks to the financial system. A panel of top regulators, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, last year considered whether to label individual asset managers as systemically important before deciding to focus on risky products and activities instead.

Tarullo suggested that any regulation was at an early stage.

He said that “considerable work” is needed to develop better data on assets under management to fill in “information gaps” that have concerned academics and policy analysts.

“And…we will need tools that will be efficient and effective responses to the risks identified,” he said.

Tarullo added the Fed will also continue to focus on stemming risks of potential runs in the financial market from the short-term wholesale funding market.

The Fed is likely to propose a new rule that will set minimum margins for “securities financing transactions” that involve extending credit to parties that are covered by federal regulation, he said.

The Fed will likely use its authority under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to set this new rule, he added.

MXN
Livingston nh 18:43 GMT 01/30/2015
remember when Rubin thought the peso move from 3 to 6 would be a major catastrophe (see Fed transcripts too) - well, about to see a 15 handle

Global Markets News
Livingston nh 18:01 GMT 01/30/2015
Lunchtime rally in SPX to fill this morning's opening gap falters -- I have bund yields below JGB - and Gilts maybe all time lows?? -- GDP deflator neg 0.1% so the weaker than expected "real" GDP got a boost - we'll know more on Monday but the fed's "preferred" inflation measure "core PCE" looks 1.4% (+0.3 above the non-preferred level) so maybe Yellen moves the goal post again

Away from Treasury yields, corps' FI are not faring well -- slowly slowly

OIL - is it over?
dc CB 18:00 GMT 01/30/2015
CHEVRON TO CUT 23% OF PENNSYLVANIA WORKFORCE AMID CRUDE SLUMP

Global Markets News
dc CB 17:58 GMT 01/30/2015
McD reacts to the (sugar) SHAK IPO

McDonald's will now accept selfies and hugs as payment


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 17:57 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):  

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.


Global Markets News
dc CB 17:21 GMT 01/30/2015


Go Forth and Consume

OIL - is it over?
dc CB 17:11 GMT 01/30/2015
America’s oil giants are beginning to lose money.

For the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, ConocoPhillips, the nation’s third-largest oil and gas producer, reported on Thursday that it had lost money — $39 million in the fourth quarter in contrast to a profit of $2.5 billion the year before. And Occidental Petroleum, another large producer in United States shale fields and the Middle East, said it lost $3.4 billion in the quarter, in contrast to a $1.6 billion gain in the same quarter in 2013.

ConocoPhillips and Occidental Post Losses, Reflecting Oil Price Plunge


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 17:07 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Equity markets are not far off their lows as of midday, with all three US indices and all S&P segments seeing losses. Equities are headed for their fourth weekly loss out of the last five week. The miss in GDP is depressing sentiment, while some mixed corporate earnings are not helping things.

TradeTheNews.com US Mid-Session Update: First Look at US Q4 GDP Disappoints



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