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FOREX FORUM
21/10/14 20:30 C US API Energy con: n/a pre: n/a
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CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:52 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Morning
sd sf 19:47 GMT 10/21/2014
EUR - range strategies were playing that 80-30 after the top was made .. when broke 70 b/o strategies sold @68 and now they bid 16-17-18

in Asia I would expect 10-40 .. when Europe comes in all bets would be off.

GBP - range bots bidding 15-16-17 - expecting 10-40 in Asia as well .. after that all bets off.

YEN - no orders at the moment but from overnight trading - I'd imagine we will be a seller @10 .. for Asia 60-10 65-00 ... if goes under 60 then 80 is the top.

100% wrong. That means you too.
Mtl JP 19:34 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
April 22, 2014 - 100% of economists think yields will rise within six months

a survey of 67 economists this (Apri) month shows every single one of them expects the 10-year Treasury 10_YEAR yield to rise in the next six months.

The survey, which is done each month by Bloomberg, has been notably bearish for some time now, with nearly everyone expecting rising rates. In March, 97% expected rising rates. In February, 95% expected yields to climb. And in January, 97% held that expectation. Since the beginning of 2009, there have only been a handful of instances where less than 50% expected rates to rise. .../..
--
Maybe some more vertical line charts days ahead.

Fear?
london red 19:34 GMT 10/21/2014
today probably close at 45 then they can do 75, thats a tougher cookie to do without a pullback. as i said earlier us stock bull cannot be dismissed and knocks up gains lightning fast. bonds still have qe4 on their minds. as fed meeting often was a disappointment for hawks this year, think doves are going to be disappointed this time. that is, fed sticks to it usually dovish as to dat path. no more no less.

Fear?
dc CB 19:26 GMT 10/21/2014


Emini Chart

Fear?
dc CB 19:23 GMT 10/21/2014
target 1937 -38

sig break and sustain above. switched to BTFD back to the 50% line. Also reverses the Fibs, 1813 becomes the start for the Upmove

Emini


AUD
GVI Forex john 19:11 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Report China dropping coal tariffs vs. Australia following Trade agreement.
Source: TradeTheNews.com


This should be AUD positive.

USDJPY
london red 18:44 GMT 10/21/2014
JM, watching and waiting all afternoon for this one to get going. slightest of inverse shs intraday, maybe asia can pick up the ball on this one. under 60 all bets off.

eurusd
Livingston nh 18:38 GMT 10/21/2014
From the "Never believe a rumor until it's officially denied" FILE -- Rumor of Corp bond buying to be on ECB agenda

It appears a reasonable possibility

FT Alphaville:

But we recently learned, via Nordeaís Aurelija Augulyte, of an odd peculiarity within the European financial system that could justify the rumoured move, buried in a footnote of an ECB working paper that came out last April:

"Improved funding conditions for large corporations can also benefit small and medium-sized enterprises indirectly, in particular through two forms of financing within the corporate sector itself: intra-sector loans and trade credits. These represented 40% of the unconsolidated debt of non-financial corporations in the euro area (which itself amounted to Ä13 trillion in 2011), a share similar to that of bank lending."

In other words, big companies in the euro area often act like banks to smaller companies. Since actual European banks seem either unable or unwilling to boost credit to small and medium enterprises because they are insufficiently capitalised, the ECB may be gambling that non-financial corporations can fill in the gap by borrowing ultra-cheaply in the capital markets and then lending the money onward for a modest return to the real economy. (For what itís worth, Japanese conglomerates have a history of doing the same thing on a large scale, and it didnít end well.)
LINK

The link to ECB paper (PDF) is in the article

USDJPY
NY JM 18:38 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
USDJPY finally woke up to a risk on day

RISK-ON. Equities Improve Generally and Bond Yields Rise. Housing Data Improve
GVI Forex Blog 18:35 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- CPI, CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision

The latest September U.S. Existing Homes Sales outperformed street expectations, . This report is the most comprehensive housing statistic, and a USD positive. On Wednesday, Australia quarterly CPI data and the latest BOE meeting Minutes are due. Later that day U.S. CPI and the latest Bank of Canada policy decision will be released.

RISK-ON. Equities Improve Generally and Bond Yields Rise. Housing Data Improve


Fear?
dc CB 18:11 GMT 10/21/2014


Wot hoppen'd to Da (engineered) Fear

Oh the Humanity. Oh the premiums.

The Gartman Fade
Paris ib 17:35 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Zerohedge need a mirror. They have been the most committed doom and gloomers out there... for years.

The Gartman Fade
dc CB 17:33 GMT 10/21/2014
October 16: "Buyers beware, the bear market has begun":

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/why-stocks-are-soaring

DOH


GVI Forex Blog 17:21 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
October 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, October 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- CPI, CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 22, 2014


RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
Mtl JP 16:52 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
(MarketWatch) -- Deutsche Bank on Tuesday cut its economic growth outlook for China, citing a slowdown in property investment. The bank now forecasts gross-domestic-product growth of 7.3% in 2014 and 7% in 2015, down from 7.8% and 8%, respectively.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 16:46 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile


October 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, October 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- CPI, CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision
  • Far East: AU- CPI
  • Europe: GB- BOE Minutes
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, CPI, Weekly Crude. CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision



RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
Mtl JP 16:45 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile


chart:
some days see
- gentle sloping trend
- vertical moves
- others range

Day's Trades
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:38 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
It has been more of a sell EUR than buy USD day.

Perhaps it is expectations of a flat CPI tomorrow and a dovish Fed next week? Whatever the case, USD is mixed. USDJPY is the confusing one and living up to its devil reputation.

By the way EURUSD has yet to test its trendline or 20 day mva.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 16:30 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
cable shorts from 1.6260 area tgt < 1.6060
for next week
Although I am bullish in general

RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
dc CB 16:26 GMT 10/21/2014
IBM is still holding back the Dow...would be up 250

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 16:23 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Longing EURJPY Here 135.7ish
Tgt > 136.6

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 16:11 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
will long cable
from 1.6130 to 1.6120
tgt 1.6170 ish

RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
dc CB 16:03 GMT 10/21/2014


Nothing to see here, move along, nothing rigged, move along.

USDJPY
Paris ib 16:01 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Good question. The Japanese have been less keen on the weak JPY recently, but that can't explain it. Interesting times.

Global Markets News
PAR 15:59 GMT 10/21/2014
JoeSixpack stops buying Coca Cola and stops going to Mcdonalds . He just keeps buying a few beers .

RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
Mtl JP 15:57 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
it is tuff to ahead-time sudden massive vertical moves

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 15:57 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

15:35 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Late in European trade, equity markets have extended their early rally into the close. They generally are in a RISK-ON posture. Equities in Far East trade ended mixed. European bourses are broadly higher. U.S. shares are up.

U.S. 10-yr yields are higher. 10-yr yields in bunds and gilts are roughly steady. Peripheral bond yields are lower, Volatile Greek yields are down.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.



Global Markets News
dc CB 15:53 GMT 10/21/2014
Having confirmed that RBS, UBS, JPMorgan,,and Credit Suisse operated a cartell to manipulate bid-ask spreads of Swiss Franc libor, the European Commission has unleashed unmerciless vengeance on these law-breaking institutions:

JPMorgan fined EUR 72.2 Million, UBS fined EUR 12.7 Million, Credit Suisse fined EUR 9.17 Million, & RBS Nothing (for whistle-blowing).

The commission found that these four entities 'influenced' interest rate derivatives prices between March 2008 and July 2009 - probably the most volatile and price-sensitive period of American financial history.. and they get fined "an hour's pay?"

Europe Demands Banks Hand Over Their Lunch Money Following Swiss Franc Libor Rigging


USDJPY
Miami JN 15:51 GMT 10/21/2014
Can anyone explain why usdjpy is not higher with stocks in rally mode?

Looking Ahead
Dillon AL 15:51 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
that would also be a .382 of the most recent micro leg

eurusd
Tallinn viies 15:49 GMT 10/21/2014
order to buy euros at 1,2712 and add at 1,2682.
stop at 1,2647.
target 1,2885

ECB - BlackRock
PAR 15:46 GMT 10/21/2014
Will there be any transparency when the ECB reports on its bond buying . Which bonds , what size, at what price and from which counterparties . How much it paid blackrock , how much it paid to brokers ?

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:37 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Heartburn from lousy McDonalds and Coca-Cola results is not preventing markets from racking up impressive gains this morning, as traders home in on possible ECB stimulus talk and Apple's big quarter. Note that the September existing home numbers hit a one-year high.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Apple, Possible ECB Stimulus Drives Markets Higher


Where's Ginko?
Paris ib 15:36 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Mind you I guess he's tempted to fund yet another colour revolution somewhere sensitive to try to tip things over..... the forces of darkness never give up. :-)

Where's Ginko?
Paris ib 15:34 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
IMVHO the Ginko stock market rally doesn't end until Soros is forced to close his position. FWIW.

RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
Mtl JP 15:27 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile


amuzingly market "volatility" - there has yet to be even a single 3% loss day - drew Bullard out to spout some bullsh!t and looksee here: so-called "crash" is now poof.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:01 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Gold
although I am bullish in general
Shorts 1253 is ok today IMO

Day's Trades
London Chris 14:57 GMT 10/21/2014
Kal, you should be a science fiction writer. I will take the other side of that wager.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:22 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD could be heading back to 1.2820 today from here

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
This election is a set up for 2016. The day after the election Obama will be a lame duck. I don't think the market reacts strongly to the vote, although a strong Republican outcome could give the USD a temporary lift.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
PAR- frankly I don't know why Bullard made those comments. All I know is that the Fed has a dysfunctional communications system. I don't pay much attention to most of what they say, except Yellen, Dudley or Stanley Fischer. The rest of them are speaking for themselves.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Data were better than expected.


eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:05 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Red, we keep our own database using US closes (see below).

Global-View Forex Chart Points


BREAKING NEWS
PAR 14:03 GMT 10/21/2014
Good numbers . Will James Bullard change his opinion on QE4 ? CanCNBC interview him ?

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
Paris ib 14:03 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
So Jay it's a pointless election? Sounds familiar. :-)

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
Paris ib 14:01 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Thanks John. I had the vague impression that the 'halt' had already taken place. The FED is still doing stuff. So is the military. But other than that I didn't get the impression there was a lot happening. Maybe I am missing something.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) September 2014




ALERT
5.170 vs. 5.100 exp. vs. 5.050 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


eurusd
london red 13:59 GMT 10/21/2014
Jay its all down to your provider. my couple are showing 32 and 34.

Draghi - How to spend it
PAR 13:58 GMT 10/21/2014
FXStreet (Łůdź) - Jim Reid, Head of Global Fundamental Credit Strategy at Deutsche Bank, comments on ECB's launching of its covered bond-purchase program on Monday.

Key quotes

"Yesterday saw the ECB begin their purchases of covered bonds in the market. We will get their updated balance sheet numbers every Monday afternoon (starting next week) where we'll get a good idea how successful they are going to be at getting close to their soft target for the balance sheet."

"So every Monday's release will now be important in this regard but for now we had some early indications from the FT which suggested that the ECB purchases included Spanish, German and French issues."

"These purchases weren't enough to stabilise peripheral debt as Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10Y yields rose +10bps, +9bps and +18bps respectively whilst German and US 10Y yields both fell slightly, by -1bp and -5bps respectively."


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