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20/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats con: n/a pre: n/a
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Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Weale and McCafferty both voted for an immediate +25bp rate hike. GBP spikes higher on the news. Its been like riding a rollercoaster recently to follow the BoE. Their concern was about a tightening labor market the prospect of wage growth.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:35 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
ready to place shorts on USDJPY

103.56 to 104.3
tgt 101.6 next week
Longer term 4 weeks

tgt 98.5 area

still bearish Cable from 1.6730 and above

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
GVI Forex john 08:31 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile



-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 2 Unchanged =7 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0


Bank of England





TTN: Live News Special Offer

Signals service
London London 08:23 GMT 08/20/2014
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.92919 Target: 0.92655 Stop: 0.93175

Dollar stronger across the board The dollar was up against almost every currency we track over the last 24 hours. Yesterday’s announcement of much stronger-than-expected housing starts and building permits for July, coming after the strong NAHB sentiment index, has given the market more confidence that the Fed is likely to start hiking rates soon. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has cited the weakness in the housing market as one reason for being cautious. For example, in her testimony to Congress last month, she said the housing sector “has shown little recent progress” and that “readings this year have, overall, continued to be disappointing.” If housing is now back on an improving trend, then that removes one more barrier to tightening.

AUD moved lower before Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens gave his semi-annual testimony before the House of Representatives economics committee. While he mostly reiterated the view expressed in the minutes of the recent RBA meeting about economic growth, he added that the risk of a material fall in the AUD is “underestimated” and said that intervention to stem its rise remains part of the RBA’s “toolkit.” Nonetheless AUD was slightly higher after he spoke than before he started, probably because he downplayed the usefulness of further monetary easing at this point. I still feel AUD is overvalued and is likely to decline.

Posted with permission of global-view.com

forex trading


Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:21 GMT 08/20/2014
Singapore SGFXTrader 05:15 GMT 08/20/2014
Dear GV Folks,

What is your view on nzs/usd tks

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:17 GMT 08/20/2014
or nzd/usd weekly has bigger pay out

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:13 GMT 08/20/2014
will it take gold down whit it shod but aud gold miners struggling so gold might be support for now with

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:04 GMT 08/20/2014
Forecasting a lower Aussie Dollar as US Fed Starts Getting Active

The AUD continues to see any bouts of strength proving short-lived in nature, indeed many traders are expressing the desire to sell the AUD rallies in anticipation of deeper declines.

"This view is not driven by an expectations of the RBA lowering the cash rate, or even the stodgy fundamental that lower export prices leads to a lower currency, but merely because we expect the markets to raise the odds that the Fed will hike by mid-next year, strengthening the USD," says Prashant Newnaha at TD Securities.

Newnaha notes that it was year ago now when the so-called “taper tantrum” was in full flight, net positioning was –60k or so contracts (August 2013) as investors piled into the USD.

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 07:42 GMT 08/20/2014
https://www.google.com/finance?q=AUDUSD

GVI Forex Blog 06:53 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
(JP) JAPAN JULY MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥964.0B V -¥713.9BE (25th consecutive trade deficit); ADJ TRADE BALANCE: -¥1.0T V -¥761.3BE - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUL SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: 0.9% V 1.6% PRIOR (

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan trade deficit wider than expected; RBA Gov Stevens jawboning AUD ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com


Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 05:42 GMT 08/20/2014
fast serch


Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
Singapore SGFXTrader 05:15 GMT 08/20/2014
Dear GV Folks,

What is your view?

1. Will Audusd ever hit parity ($1.00) in 2014?
2. Audusd Direction: $0.90 or $1.00?

Cheers
SgFx

GVI Forex Blog 03:58 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
The overall sentiment remains positive. The pace of Housing Starts surged by 15.7

Morning Briefing : 20-Aug-2014 -0357 GMT


AceTrader Aug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:14 GMT 08/20/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD

20 Aug 2014 02:39GMT

AUD/USD - ... The Aussie chopped around after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' testimony b4 the House of Standing committee ahead of Asian open, short-term specs were selling the AUD after NY close but when Stevens did not jawbone the Aussie lower, shorts covered their positions and lifted price o 0.9318.

Below were Stevens testimonies released on Reuters :

-remains view that on most metrics would be surprising if A$ remains so high
-risk of A$ fall is underappreciated
-puzzled why u.s. dollar is not higher given u.s. is recovering
- intervention on A$ part of tool kit if thought useful
-have not considered intevention useful so far
-would not want to give advance warning if did consider intervention
-economy does not need draconian fiscal tightening right now
-budget problems are in the medium term
-recent reading on unemployment was a weak one, difficult to interpret
RBA's kent says unemployment not to fall sustainably until late 2015, early 2016

Stevens continued - A$ high in part because global capital finds Australia attractive

-has not thought about raising rates
-says expects fairly subdued result for Q2 QDP
-have not felt that intervention would work at current A$ levels
-would consider lower rates if thought it would be helpful
-but does not think interest rates the answer right now

Could beheading rattle the stock market?
Mtl JP 03:14 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
nh 01:29 / thx 4 that clarifying distinction and reminder

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:13 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

One of our GTA members has offered to share his simple but effective system with us.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System


Currency War: AUD
Livingston nh 01:48 GMT 08/20/2014
AUD/USD on the daily chart is showing similar patterns to EUR, then GBP where the 21 dma is sliding thru 55 and 89 ema - wkly chart gives some hope to a bounce but cluster of l/t MAs between 9333 and 9363 -- the daily charts show AUD capped at 55 ema -- a break of 92 looks likely once 9240 goes

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 01:42 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
To sum up, RBA Gov is saying if AUD gets too strong it will intervene

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 01:39 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: GOV REMINDS RBA MANDATE IS FULL EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY

. MNI: RBA: AUD JAWBONING EFFECT NOT INCREASING BUT WILL DO IF NEEDED

. MNI: RBA GOV: WE THINK ABOUT EFFECT ON AUD WHEN SETTING CASH RATE

Forex News
nw kw 01:38 GMT 08/20/2014
lumber indicated strong housing 3weeks ago but now full time construction workers will send nfp or usd to strength, than support bonds, and usd/jpy

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 01:31 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA:CONSIDERED INTERVENTION SERIOUSLY BEFORE WHEN AUD WAS HIGH

MNI: RBA GOV: AUD HASN'T REVISITED THAT HIGH LEVEL SINCE THEN

Could beheading rattle the stock market?
Livingston nh 01:29 GMT 08/20/2014
This is a political event w/ no financial consequence unless it becomes military - stox won't revalue for anything less than a Fed event // UKR is still more important because of the sanctions escalation game
IN the US ::
Political morphs into Financial = bad for stox // Political morphs into Military = good for stox

Forex News
Mtl JP 01:24 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
beg your pardon blog, but gv's database says:
Statistic: 07/1/2014 - 07/31/2014
Results USD/JPY High
Average 101.8994
Minimum 101.3880
Maximum 103.0900
fwiw

Currency War: AUD
Mtl JP 01:19 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile


kw 00:33 nyet, no lumber on my radar.
crude n Gold
-
usdyen still struggling to test 103.09

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 01:12 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index at 11-month high thanks to dollar's broad gains

* Euro/dollar at 9-month low, risks fall below $1.30

* Dollar/yen seen testing July peak of 103.15 yen

FOREX-Dollar holds upper hand after solid housing starts data


Islamic State says beheads U.S. journalist, holds another
GVI Forex 01:06 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
(Reuters) - Islamic State insurgents released a video on Tuesday purportedly showing the beheading of U.S. journalist James Foley, who had gone missing in Syria nearly two years ago, and images of another U.S. journalist whose life they said depended on U.S. action in Iraq.

Islamic State says beheads U.S. journalist, holds another


Could beheading rattle the stock market?
Syd 00:50 GMT 08/20/2014
The US stock market has put together the best couple of days in about four months and it has been the ‘de-hotting’ of the Russia-Ukraine standoff that has helped. This has been added to by some good US economic data on top of a good company reporting season. But has a new geopolitical concern raised its ugly head?

But has a new geopolitical concern raised its ugly head?


When will the long-awaited fall in the Aussie dollar happen?
Syd 00:48 GMT 08/20/2014
Economist Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, looks at the key determinants that will move the dollar.

aud


Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 00:44 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA GOV: JAPAN INFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO RAISE AUD

MNI: RBA GOV: BUT BENEFIT IS CHEAPER CAPITAL FOR AUSTRALIA

MNI: RBA GOV: JAPAN FUNDS COULD STILL FIND ITS WAY INTO AUSTRALIA

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
nw kw 00:40 GMT 08/20/2014
I herd jpy has no third arroyo /

Currency War: AUD
nw kw 00:33 GMT 08/20/2014
jp-you monitoring lumber ??????????? cheap bonds so what to trade/

Currency War: AUD
nw kw 00:30 GMT 08/20/2014
aud growth outlook might be helping aud hold its same forecast as china's /copper not bad off

Currency War: AUD
nw kw 00:27 GMT 08/20/2014
jp-you have a take on QQQ,chart interesting might be banks or tek

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:26 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA GOV: BIGGER SOURCE OF AUD RISE IN GLOBAL CAPITAL INFLOW

Little reaction to verbal intervention

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 00:26 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA GOV: BIGGER SOURCE OF AUD RISE IN GLOBAL CAPITAL INFLOW

Little reaction to the verbal intervention

Currency War: AUD
Mtl JP 00:18 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
was that Stevens yakking ?
so far worth about just a few temporary nega pips , could nt even breach 0.9239

babble shmable put some money where your mouth instead

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 00:00 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA GOV:LITTLE ATTENTION PAID NOW TO PROSPECT OF FED RATE RISE

MNI: RBA GOV: RISK OF AUD FALLING IS BEING UNDERAPPRECIATED

MNI: RBA:ON MOST METRICS WLD BE SURPRISING IF AUD REMAINS THIS HIGH

MNI: RBA: DIDN'T NEED TO USE INTERVENTION TILL DATE IN THIS EPISODE

MNI: GOV: FOREX INTERVENTION REMAINS PART OF RBA'S TOOLKIT

MNI: RBA GOV: WON'T GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE IF INTEND TO INTERVENE

Iraq
GVI Forex john 21:55 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile
Ironically, Iraq has larger oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. It would be a wealthy country if it ever got its act together.

Iraq
NY JM 21:47 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile
The Iraqi currency is not freely traded and its risk is only one way and that is down (devalue, not revalue). That assumes Iraq survives as a country.

Iraq
Louisville cc 21:44 GMT 08/19/2014
Sell OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

What does anyone know about Iraq and the future of the IQD? Will it revalue and where would you have to go to exchange for USD?

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:33 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile


August 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- BOE Minutes, US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- BOE Minutes
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes



Weekly US API Data
GVI Forex john 20:37 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.400 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -1.400 prev.
Gasoline: -2.100 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.200 prev.
Distillates: -0.561 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -2.400 prev.
Cap/Util: 92.90% vs. n/a exp vs. 91.60% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 20:19 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile

WEDNESDAY
8:30 GB BOE Minutes
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
THURSDAY
1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ  MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Retail Sales
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 19:30 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile
10-yr late 2.401% +1bp

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:24 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...




U.S Data Mixed. U.K. Inflation Data Softer. BOE and Fed Policy Minutes on Wednesday
GVI Forex Blog 18:53 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- BOE Minutes, US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes

Wednesday sees the latest Bank of England and Fed policy minutes. July U.S. Housing Starts rebounded by a lot more than expected when they were released on Tuesday. Analysts credited multi-family dwellings for the surge. The impact of the data was muted by softer than expected July CPI data. The data suggest that the Fed is not behind the curve in managing inflation.

U.S Data Mixed. U.K. Inflation Data Softer. BOE and Fed Policy Minutes on Wednesday


UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
Mtl JP 18:02 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile


see how gbp is married to the euro

UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
GVI Forex john 17:47 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile
Remarkable turn lower in GBP. I guess the markets do not believe Mr.Carney? The 2-yr to spot relationship is not just a correlation. It is CAUSATION. Note how the 2-yr tracks economic data.

UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
GVI Forex john 17:37 GMT 08/19/2014  - My Profile
UPDATED AS OF- Tuesday Afternoon in NYC: Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD.

The BOE message to the markets was changed over the week-end making the timing of a rate hike more fuzzy. Soft inflation data pushed the market view back to 2015.

This is how the markets continuously digest new data. The data has had a clear negative impact on GBPUSD. The yield on the 2yr note has fallen only slightly.





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