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Forex Trading Outlook: Will USDJPY Revisit 115?
GVI Forex Blog 23:19 GMT 02/13/2016  - My Profile

>> OPEN ACCESS <<

Global markets are ending a hectic week with some relief after risk off sentiment gripped it most of the time. This sets the stage for the coming week where the focus will be on the JPY initially and given the firmer close in USDJPY, the BoJ could put on a squeeze if it so chooses. As for risk sentiment, it should continue to be influenced by the correlation between oil-equities-fx (and bonds).

Forex Trading Outlook: Will USDJPY Revisit 115?


Commitment Of Traders Report
nw kw 21:51 GMT 02/13/2016
Finance ministers, central bankers seen taking up forex stability

TOKYO -- Steps to address the turmoil in foreign exchange markets are expected to be on the agenda when finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the Group of 20 nations meet in Shanghai on Feb. 26-27.

so cot will move im on xauaud to toppish gives it power to audusa move up fast?

http://asia.nikkei.com/Features/Market-turmoil2/Finance-ministers-central-bankers-seen-taking-up-forex-stability


Double Success for NordFX in Forex Awards 2015
Porto Cubriclas 21:49 GMT 02/13/2016  - My Profile
Last year i went to a no deposit required promotion and i never had any response from nordfx. Unfortunatelly i had a bad image from nordfx.

Double Success for NordFX in Forex Awards 2015
Amsterdam 20:22 GMT 02/13/2016
We are pleased to announce that NordFX has won in two nominations in the Forex Awards voting for 2015 – Best Micro Forex Broker and Best Execution Broker.
Every year since 2010, Forex Awards selects the best forex and binary options brokers. Their expert community of active traders and website visitors votes for winners in a wide range of prestigious categories.
We at NordFX are very appreciative of such high marks for the company’s efforts in 2015 and will continue to do our best to offer traders the best and the most useful for successful trading on Forex.

Fun with Covers
dc CB 18:34 GMT 02/13/2016
Kind of ironic, when paired with this weeks Barron's Cover

Economist Cover 2-13-16


Fun with Covers
dc CB 18:06 GMT 02/13/2016
finally totally UpFront about what I've been writing about since just before the Iowa Caucus, and flagged again in the days before the New Hampshire primary.

Yes, Virginia, you ARE being punished for supporting these guys. They ARE a big risk to the rigged game we've enjoyed playing with YOUR MONEY for the last 7 years.

Barron's Cover


Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
dc CB 17:44 GMT 02/13/2016


Every quarter members of the Fed meet with 12 representatives of the U.S. banking industry who comprise the Federal Advisory Council.

We bring this up because according to the just released records from the most recent, February 3, meeting one which came one week ahead of Yellen's congressional tesimony which on both days sent markets into a tailspin because Yellen "was not dovish enough" according to sellside commentary, she was told "the economy is stronger than the recent negative market sentiment would imply."

The above also poses the question: who is it that decides the fate of the Fed's rate hikes - the Fed, or the 12 bankers on its advisory council.


Why Yellen's Testimony Was Not Dovish Enough: Bank CEOs Told Her The 'Economy Is Stronger Than Markets Imply'


Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
Livingston nh 15:34 GMT 02/13/2016
JP - depends on the new president -- Fischer will be seen as part of the problem so he'll likely leave too - Dems probably stick w/ an economist (Summers still campaigning), repubs may actually look for a banker

Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
Mtl JP 15:32 GMT 02/13/2016  - My Profile
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/yellen-says-legality-of-negative-u-s-interest-rates-in-question

"I would say that remains a question that we still would need to investigate more thoroughly," Yellen

Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
Mtl JP 15:23 GMT 02/13/2016  - My Profile
we will also have a new Fed chairman
- who
-- Stanley ?

Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
Livingston nh 15:10 GMT 02/13/2016
John - one of the problems for Yellen and Bernanke was that they missed the time for normalizing rates because they kept fighting the banking crisis long after it passed -- they insist they are trying to expand the economy but continue to use tools (interest rates and Treasury holdings) that have the opposite effect -- The Fed folks see themselves as reacting to conditions when in fact they are the primary cause of the conditions

Low interest rates reduce the cost of holding money - the effect of this is to contract or restrict the growth of NGDP - the degree of this effect depends on the type and maturity of the economy (e.g, the effect in Japan is greater than the effect in the US) - the past three years this policy in conjunction w/the political demand that Banks hold more capital has crippled bank profitability and thereby taxed the transmission process restricting growth of US NGDP and pushed money out of the US into EM, a flow that is being reversed over the last six months

Money supply growth slowed (1%) in late Summer and Autumn but has begun to recover towards 5% -- interest rates in non treasury capital markets are rising at the same time that Treasury yields (MONEY) are at yearly lows -- by maintaining Treasurys on its balance sheet the Fed is usurping fiscal policy (if demand for these instruments is high the Fed should accommodate the demand from its holdings)

I pointed out last week that the interest income in the US has declined at the same time the savings rate has increased - this is a clear signal that the FED's low rate policy has screwed up the economy

If the Fed does not hike rates the economy will continue to sputter -- we will also have a new Fed chairman

Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
Mtl JP 15:02 GMT 02/13/2016  - My Profile
STOCKMAN'S CORNER
Simple Janet——The Monetary Android With A Broken Flash Drive

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/simple-janet-the-monetary-android-with-a-broken-flash-drive/

Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
Mtl JP 14:20 GMT 02/13/2016  - My Profile
john are u pulling a Yellen with the difference being her dependence on data and yours being dependent on her ?
-
Dudley - her symbiotic twin - yakked that the Fed will take an indefinite pause on rate hikes; Yellen chickened out to say so clearly herself
-
Bottom Line
the Fed isn’t ready to stop yakking about rate hikes yet - too early for that as Yellens gang is not ready to talk about policy error

Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy
GVI Forex Blog 12:59 GMT 02/13/2016  - My Profile

John M. Bland, MBA, CTA

Yellen Turns Cautious
Fed Chair Yellen tesified twice in the latest week

Fed Chair Yellen Opens Up On Policy


Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Sydney ACC 06:29 GMT 02/13/2016
This number has declined since it reached a peak of 675 in the week ending August 2. The fall, has however, quickened in the last fortnight with consequences for the future of oil prices and GDP.
Jan 1 536
Jan 9 516
Jan 16 515
Jan 23 510
Jan 30 498
Feb 6 467
Feb 13 439

My Friday Trades
Livingston nh 21:39 GMT 02/12/2016
JP - another guy w/ the 1937 bogeyman - the Fed was different then, the US monetary regime was still tied to GOLD (but gold had been confiscated) and the FDIC was in place to avoid the seize up of Money Supply -- the Recession had little to do with interest rates; most of the problem in 1937 was fiscal policy

The problem in Japan is the same as it has been for the past 20 years -- Fiscal Policy was not focused on the consumer saving side of the contraction and monetary policy reacted w/ an interest rate policy that was not appropriate to the Japanese savings based economy (nega interest rate may be the last straw before somebody wakes them from this nightmare)

AND 1998 was a classic EM bubble, it's the nature of the BEAST (Soviet Union and the collapse of Empires made it look worse)

These aren't even GOOD analogies
____________

Yellen was her timid self again (I guess nobody asks the Treasury secretary for his dollar view anymore) - Volcker testimony and operations were 180 degrees different



My Friday Trades
Mtl JP 21:02 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile


john 16:04 / What central bank failures mean for your investment strategy
-
Go long on cash, gold, and volatility and avoid risky assets at all cost until China, commodities, credit and consumer spending improve, a strategist said Friday. - Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
--
all opinions are valid - until proven otherwise

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 20:43 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database


Commitment Of Traders Report
GVI Forex john bland 20:39 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details







usd/jpy + dj
london red 19:42 GMT 02/12/2016
both swissy yen and euro daily charts looking a lot better for usd nxt week. wkly a lot of damage done so usd rebound just a correction for now unless bigger levels taken. would need to see under 11040/50 euro and abv 11585/116 for yen to call usd higher still. s&p likely to move ahead of 1900 nxt week question is will they sell the rally c 1940 or do they double b and move up to 2060 before lower again.

usd/jpy + dj
Livingston nh 19:30 GMT 02/12/2016
Daily chart on USD/JPY still looks terrible BUT 4 hr chart right at 21 ma and 89 ema on hrly 113.62 look a lot better -- China bet for Monday weaker yen up to 115 (55ema)

usd/jpy + dj
Prague JIT 18:52 GMT 02/12/2016
For this evening: DJ - if turns down at the end of trading from 15900/16100 max., then usd/jpy is done. Go short in this case. Sellers in usd/jpy are taken to the loss above 114 only. First try to sell usd/jpy 113.50-80. BOJ lost the game at 115 doing nothing. Cost me 50 pips, but good tech. readings last two days - good pip-picking on boths sides. gl + happy w/e

BREAKING NEWS
london red 18:25 GMT 02/12/2016
s&p. strong hourly close here takes on on to 1870 and that should be it for the day. current dip should be no lower than 44 or itll lose the lot and more.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI john 18:11 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
Rig Counts continue to decline

BREAKING NEWS
GVI john 18:09 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Total (inc gas) U.S.: 541 vs 571 (-30) prev
US (oil): 439 vs. 467 (-28) prev

Canada 222 vs. 242 (-20) prev



TTN: Live News Special Offer


My Friday Trades
london red 17:57 GMT 02/12/2016
broken fib at 11330. short covering abv there to 50 then 80. while stocks keep going you can buy usd pull back vs yen. euro is getting sup from yen cross hence not moving under sup.


GVI Data Calendar for 15 February 2016
GVI Forex Blog 17:07 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile

February 12, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, February 15, 2016. Trading News Calendar

  • Far East: CN- Trade
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Holiday
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

15-Feb Monday
US- Holiday
16-Feb Tuesday
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
17-Feb Wednesday
13:30 US- PPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
18-Feb Thursday
00:30 AU- Employment
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16:00 US- Weekly Crude
19-Feb Friday
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- CPI

GVI Data Calendar for 15 February 2016


Monday Japan Stox up!!!
HK RF@ 17:05 GMT 02/12/2016

'''''Singapore''''' '''''SGFXTrader'''''

Just took profit and now on sideline.

Seems too, there is an urgency to prevent a big decline this Mon. of China Mkts.

Syria
'Israel' 'Dil' 16:43 GMT 02/12/2016
Yuri Gripas / Reuters


The head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Aleksandr Bastrykin, has called for the creation of an international coalition of states to fight the “dictatorship” imposed by the US on the rest of the world, and to reject the use the US dollar as a reserve currency.

Speaking at a roundtable in Moscow, Bastrykin said that the world urgently needed a new system of checks and balances that would allow equal representation of all nations on the international political arena.

He said an alliance of countries was needed which could act in concert as “a feasible pole to counter the dictatorship imposed by the Americans together with their Western allies,” according to the minutes of the roundtable

Monday Japan Stox up!!!
'''''Singapore''''' '''''SGFXTrader''''' 16:39 GMT 02/12/2016
Did u long usdjpy? i give lotsa tips yesterday. if u long, u make good pips now!

HK RF@ 16:34 GMT 02/12/2016

Syria
'Mtl' 'JP' 16:36 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
the greek is desperate
the italian spaniard portugese are desperate
Vlad is making the turk desperate
Saudis are rapping in their pants
desperate over debts = popular upheaval
-
do bankers likes idea of popular upheaval ?
I doubt killer Henry went to see Vlad for his blue eyes

Monday Japan Stox up!!!
HK RF@ 16:34 GMT 02/12/2016


Short covering may enhance USD/JPY up-move to the close.
All that on background of BOJ doing something(???)

Syria
'Israel' 'Dil' 16:29 GMT 02/12/2016
JP


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and UN Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura (L-R) arrive for a news conference after the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) meeting in Munich, Germany, February 12, 2016. © Michael Dalder / Reuters


An ambitious plan to end hostilities in Syria with verifiable results within a week, revive the Geneva-3 peace talks, and immediately begin delivering humanitarian aid to civilians has been unveiled in Munich, Germany after talks including the US, Russia, and the UN.

Hostilities in Syria could come to a halt within a week after confirmation by the government of President Bashar Assad and the opposition, according to an official communiqué from the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) meeting.

My Friday Trades
GVI 16:26 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
... and now the dollar is following

My Friday Trades
\'GVI 16:10 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
WTI +10%... stocks following

Deutsche Bank
'Mtl' 'JP' 16:05 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
'Dil' say heads chopping ally Saudis send boots to syria
what could be new profit opps would u see out of that ?

My Friday Trades
GVI john 16:04 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
No one here has commented on it, but one Senator yesterday complained about the muddled messages coming out of the Fed. Yellen seemed ready for the comment and said that the policy at the central bank is for Fed members to indicate when they are speaking for themselves and when they are talking about Fed policy.

I am now watching anything these guys say to see if their behavior has changed. If they start to toe a party line rather than freelancing it, their comments could become useful for trading as they once were.

BREAKING NEWS
'GVI 'Jay 15:56 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
10:50 (US) Fed's Dudley (Voter, Dove): Turmoil in market mostly tied to overseas events and not US economy - Q&A

- if financial conditions tighten, Fed takes that into account
- difficult to tell how much market turmoil recently is based on market fundamentals- still expects to meet inflation target in the longer term but it will be slow going
- seen dollar weaken a bit in recent weeks
- completely agrees wtih Chairwoman Yellen's assessment of policy environment
- won't commit on rate decisions because data could change before March meeting; recent events will factor into March decision
- policy decisions overseas will not have much impact on US economy, negative rates abroad have only small effects on the US economy
- Talk of negative rates for the US is premature, not spending a lot of time thinking about it, there are many other actions the Fed would take before resorting to negative rates
- US banks are in good shape; not concerned about bank stock weakness


- Source TradeTheNews.com

BREAKING NEWS
\'GVI \'john 15:51 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
Fed's Dudley
-- Policy data dependent
-- Significant tightening in U.S. financial conditions
-- Market turmoil tied to overseas events
-- Can't predict what Fed will do in upcoming meetings

Deutsche Bank
'Israel' 'Dil' 15:46 GMT 02/12/2016
what I can do for you Jay? what do you need?

Crude Oil
'Livingston' 'nh' 15:44 GMT 02/12/2016
WTI was about 15% undervalued at yesterday's low - a move back above 30.20 (21dma declining) would also take out 4 hr 89 ema -- that move probably depends on China Monday // Stox and the Fed still chasing oil around the block -- time to break the leash

Deutsche Bank
GVI Jay 15:44 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
Dll me at jay@global-view.com

DEFLATION
PAR 15:43 GMT 02/12/2016
In Europe lower crude oil prices are not deflationary as most european governments used lower oil prices to increase taxes on gasoline and gasoil .

European consumer is hit by negative rates and only slightly lower energy prices .

#ImpeachDraghi

Deutsche Bank
'Israel' 'Dil' 15:41 GMT 02/12/2016
3x round trades completed - €5.25 gain in total

Crude Oil
PAR 15:33 GMT 02/12/2016
Crude oil +6.5% . INFLATION is coming . Be happy. Lets make Saudi Arabia rich again. Draghi sponsored by OPEC ?

BREAKING NEWS
london red 15:30 GMT 02/12/2016
weve got the nice tail on hourly s&p ahead of time, you can see how everyones now waiting to see if it sticks on the close to pile in or if not to run the bitch down.

Correction today
HK Kuwn 15:26 GMT 02/12/2016
Sell Gold
Entry: 1243 Target: Stop: 1253

seem not willing to fall, TP at 1138

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Misses
'GVI 'john 15:19 GMT 02/12/2016  - My Profile
U of M misses, but Retail Sales data was the more significant statistic today


Next Page





Cautious Trade After Verbal Intervention By Japan To Curb Strong JPY. All Eyes on China Reopen Monday After Week-Long Holidays


MAJOR ITEMS THIS WEEK (GMT)

15-Feb Monday
US- Holiday
16-Feb Tuesday
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
17-Feb Wednesday
13:30 US- PPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
18-Feb Thursday
00:30 AU- Employment
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16:00 US- Weekly Crude
19-Feb Friday
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
13:30 US/CA- CPI




CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On Into New York Close

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

TREASURIES-Bond yields rise on upbeat U.S. retail sales data -- Reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated

Speculators slash net U.S. dollar longs to lowest in 1-1/2 years -CFTC -- Reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Misses

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. Retail Sales Beat Estimates s

EXCLUSIVE: Eurozone And German 4Q15 GDP In Line With Estimates

EXCLUSIVE: Will the Bank of Japan Intervene in USDJPY?

Latest News On U.S. Presidential Primaries -- Realclearpolitics.com




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The Monday Effect; A Forex Trading Pattern Revealed

More..


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