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Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 09:23 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Market Conditions:
Markets are in a MIXED RISK posture heading into the FOMC decision later today and the Scottish referendum vote tomorrow. Many are focused on an WSJ article by Jon Hilsenrath predicting no change the the "extended time period"  by the Fed today. Also latest polls favor a no vote in Scotland tomorrow but the vote is still to close to call.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 1.06%, 0.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.51% -2bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.57%,  -0.9bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed . Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. share futures are steady.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

August 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)
london red 09:17 GMT 09/17/2014
not bad increases of 0.4 and 0.9 for core. a critical downside element over the last few months, oil, looks like its bottom ahead of hurricane and winter season.
euro not done much, paralysed ahead of fomc and scot ref. one data doesnt make a trend, but its a good bit of news all the same.

August 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)
GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
EZ Final HICP. Headline HICP revised higher. Core CPI unrevised. ECB focuses mainly on headline CPI.

August 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)
GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile

mm:+0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
yy: +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.

HICP core
yy: 0.90% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

July/August 2014 U.K. Employment Data
GVI Forex john 08:45 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
U.K. Claimant Count Unemployment falls by more than expected. Unemployment falls. (Declining Claimant Count is stronger and vice-versa).

July/August 2014 U.K. Employment Data
GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile


Claimants (000): -37.2 vs. -30.0 exp. vs. -33.6 pre (r -37.4)
Unemployment: vs. 6.30% exp. vs. 6.40% pre
Avg Earnings (x-bonus): +0.70% v +0.70% exp. v +0.60% (+0.70%) pre
Avg Earnings (+ Bonus): +0.60% v +0.50% v -0.20% (r-0.1% pre

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Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:34 GMT 09/17/2014
jobs superb but again earnings weak. cable should find support at 16280/75

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
GVI Forex john 08:31 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile


Rates:Tighten = 2 Unchanged =7 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0

Bank of England

TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 08:22 GMT 09/17/2014
jobs data and mpc minutes up soon. generally uk jobs are a gbp positive, while the earnings have been disappointing. but gbp has been firm today on back of no vote getting more traction and getting slightly priced in as we approach the finish line. i tend not to back against uk jobs, but if report disappoints, i suspect cable downside will be limited and it will see buyers coming into the market.

london red 07:07 GMT 09/17/2014
long at 10952. stop below recent lows, placed at 32. 10949 is a fibo which has behaved well in past.

AceTrader Sept 17: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 06:29 GMT 09/17/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

17 Sep 2014 USD/JPY

The former Ministry of Finance official Eisuke Sakakibara, who was known as "Mr. Yen" for his efforts to influence exchange rates in the mid 1990s, said in an interview in Tokyo on Tuesday that the yen will fall to 110 per dollar as early as this year, hurting Japan's economy as wages lag behind inflation driven by higher import costs.

"The negative side of a weak yen is evident in an economy that is struggling,". "I'm not a proponent of the 2 percent inflation target. As long as the growth rate is high, it doesn't matter if price gains are near zero.'

"The Japanese economy isn't all that bad, so the yen won't just keep on weakening," he said. "It's not going to fall to 130 or 140 per dollar."

Trading the greenback was tricky on Tuesday as price swung wildly.
Despite rebounding from Asian 106.93 low to 107.33 at European open after comments from BOJ governor Kuroda, price briefly dropped to a session low of 106.81 in NY on WSJ webcast saying the Fed will stick to near-zero rate language on Wed. Later, rally in the Dow to record high boosted risk sentiment, dlr rebounded to to 107.22 and then 107.28 shortly after Asian open, helped by gain in Nikkei in Tokyo morning (currently up 17 points to 15928).

Dlr's overnight rebound suggests buying on dips is still the favoured stragtegy but sharp gain beyond last Friday's 6-year peak at 107.40 is unlikely ahead of the release of Fed's latest policy statements (18:00GMT) and then Fed Chair Yellen's press conference. Bids are placed at 107.10-00 and then 106.85/80 with stops emerging below 106.60, whilst offers from various are noted at 107.40-50 and further out at 107.75/80 with stops emerging just above 108.00.

Market expects the Fed to keep interest rate at ultra-low level on Wednesday and to cut its monthly bond-buying program to $15 bln from $25 bln. Investors are hoping to see a timetable as to when U.S. interest rates may rise and focus more on wording the closing of its bond-buying program.

GVI Forex Blog 04:26 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: -0.1% V -0.1% PRIOR (2nd consecutive decline) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (NZ$): -1.07B V -1.00BE; CURRENT ACCOUNT GDP RATIO YTD: -2.5 Asian Market Update: China banks rally on CNY500B standing liquidity facility ***Economic Data*** - Source

Using Pivot Points to Trade Forex Part III
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 03:55 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile

How to use Pivot Points in trading: Pivots gained notoriety amongst the open outcry trading community especially by locals who needed a methodology to establish support and resistance for short term scalping opportunities. Today’s locals have morphed into anyone day trading. However today’s day traders do not create liquidity. They tend to fall into the category of momentum traders looking for quick movements hither and thither but in reality the old saw of buy on dips and sell on pops is an equally valid methodology where the only missing element is time

Using Pivot Points to Trade Forex (Part III)

Australian export risk on China dirty coal ban
Syd 03:49 GMT 09/17/2014
which could expose the industry to billions of dollars in lost sales as China seeks to cut air pollution.
The Chinese government is to limit the use of imported coal with more than 16 per cent ash and 3 per cent sulphur from January 1, 2015, in a bid to improve air quality, especially in the major cities such as Beijing and around Shanghai.
At the same time, China is moving to force power utilities to slash coal import volumes, also with the stated aim of improving air quality, although this move will primarily give China's local coalminers a lift.


Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 03:33 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
* WSJ reports Fed may not sound as hawkish as markets expect

* China bank liquidity speculation lifts Aussie

* Fed meeting outcome next in focus

FOREX-Dollar on edge as Fed language eyed, Aussie surges

GVI Forex Blog 03:27 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
A Chinese stimulus of nearly $81 billion boosted the markets everywhere

Morning Briefing : 17-Sep-2014 -0327 GMT

AceTrader Sept 17: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/CAD) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:57 GMT 09/17/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/CAD

17 Sep 2014 USD/CAD
Yesterday the news conference by Bank of Canada, Poloz's views & statement:
Bank of Canada is neutral on interest rates;
Poloz: asked about dropping neutral bias, says will give all the new data full consideration at next monetary policy report.
What happens next on the economy is still a big question mark for us.
Still a strong case for waiting and seeing.
Housing sector's bounce back from winter was a little more rigorous than we expected to see.
Base case remains that pieces are in place for gradual reduction in household imbalances.
Could take a year for jobs to return after pickup of exports.
Believes there is some slack in job market not measured by jobless rate, but it is hard to measure.
Estimates about 200,000 youth have withdrawn from workforce, maybe another 100,000 in prime age category are discouraged.
Canadian rates are already higher than U.S. rates.

Earlier news: "the Bank of Canada is not trying to manipulate or even guide markets as to the value of the Canadian dollar" Governor Stephen Poloz said on Tuesday, adding that this gives the bank freedom not to match possible U.S. interest rate hikes.
"floating rates helped Canada ride the tides of the global economy without overheating or unduly slowing."
"Trying to hold the dollar constant would give us larger fluctuations in unemployment, output and inflation, and in the end would not help us maintain our international competitiveness."

Many analysts have suggested Poloz, former head of Export Development Canada, prefers a weak currency in order to boost the exports, are needed to take over from households as the driver of growth. The Canadian dollar has fallen 7 percent against the U.S. greenback since he took office.

Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's current account, Bank of England minutes, U.K. average earnings, claimant count unemployment, ILO unemployment, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, eurozone inflation, U.S. core CPI, CPI, current account, NAHB housing market index, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement.

More on Coal
Sydney ACC 01:12 GMT 09/17/2014
It's far from uncommon for Chinese policy initiatives to be somewhat opaque. That seems to be the case with the proposed restrictions on the use of relatively dirty coal.
Make no mistake, China wants and needs to clean up its coal act, but Beijing isn't about to slash coal consumption overnight and, looking through the headlines, Australia's coal export volumes aren't going to crash next year.
Standard Bank's Melinda Moore is a bulks analyst who doesn't just cover the Chinese industry but gets invited to speak to the Chinese industry. She sees a considerable difference between the apparent headline impact of the National Development and Reform Commission's draft policy (note that it is still a draft) and what will happen in the furnace.
"The market is still trying to gauge the impact of various recent Chinese policies, with details confusing to interpret on planned coal bans," Ms Moore wrote to clients overnight. And there's plenty to be confused about,

Read more:

China Introduces Restrictions On Coal Imports
Sydney ACC 22:41 GMT 09/16/2014
Australian coal exporters are scrambling to clarify the fallout from changes to China's coal import rules, which could expose the industry to billions of dollars in lost sales as China seeks to cut air pollution.

The Chinese government is to limit the use of imported coal with more than 16 per cent ash and 3 per cent sulphur from January 1, 2015 in a bid to improve air quality, especially in cities such as Beijing and around Shanghai.

At the same time, China is moving to force power utilities to slash coal import volumes, also with the stated aim of improving air quality, although this move will primarily give China's local coalminers a lift.

Read more:

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:40 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile

September 16, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade, GB- Unemployment, EZ- Final HICP, Current Account, CPI, FOMC
  • Far East: JP- Trade
  • Europe: GB- Unemployment, EZ- Final HICP
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Current Account, CPI, NAHB Index, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision+Press Conference

Toronto WR 21:39 GMT 09/16/2014
Buy Trade Set-Up
Entry: Target: Stop:

Looking for a broker in Canada or the US that carries this pairing on their trading platform. If anyone knows of one, please email me at

Thank you and all the very best everyone.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 21:25 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile

Daily ranges and latest spot rates updated on today's Pivot Point table. Click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers for easy reference.

Weekly Trading Planner
New York GVI Forex 21:06 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
0:30 JP Trade Japan big exporter
8:30 GB Unemployment  top growth measure
8:30 GB BOE Minutes  BOE Policy statement
9:00 EZ Final Inflation key to ECB policy
12:30 US Current Account widest trade measure
12:30 US CPI  key Fed target
18:00 FRB Fed Rates & Press Conference Fed policy decision THURSDAY
Scotland Referendum
7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 21:01 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile

Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data.

Basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of page are current.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

dc CB 20:58 GMT 09/16/2014
more on the China headline.
Hilzeee rally not much.

Mo Free Money drove it, not the promise of a word change

chart from ZH

Weekly US API Data
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile

(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +3.300 vs. -1.00 exp vs. -0.970 prev.
Gasoline: -1.200 vs. 0.00 exp vs. -2.380 prev.
Distillates: +1.00 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +4.090 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.10% vs. 92.10% exp vs. 93.90% prev.

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london red 20:36 GMT 09/16/2014
the doves have them raising in july. lets take yellen as the dove she is and take her first initial reaction to length of considerable time. ie. 6 months. so they have the december meet to remove considerable time essentially. if they want to leave it that late. which they probably do. but it is six months folk, just remember that when the time comes.

GVI Forex john 20:35 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
nh= just his opinion. We all have opinions. He has not been terribly accurate with his forecasts.

Livingston nh 20:32 GMT 09/16/2014
Hilsenrath ?? - He may be right but that means the FOMC is wrong - the level is the key because it determines profit or loss // every rate to the 10 yr is negative

GVI Forex 20:14 GMT 09/16/2014
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts.
Imre Speizer

Two unrelated pieces of news were the catalysts for a surge in risk appetite overnight. WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath opined the FOMC would not change its key guidance language that rates would remain low for a "considerable period of time". The PBOC injected CNY 500bn of fresh liquidity into China's five largest banks, according to The US dollar fell sharply, and US equities rose, the S&P500 currently up 0.9%.

Westpac NZ

Livingston nh 20:10 GMT 09/16/2014
This is like MacBeth's 3 witches -- interpretation

GVI Forex john 20:07 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Opinium Research Poll likely to show YES vote at 48%,
NO at 52% - Tweet-


Livingston nh 20:05 GMT 09/16/2014
Interest rates will call the tune on GBP/USD -- Scotland vote is an EU problem

london red 20:04 GMT 09/16/2014
nh, absolutely. net money flows into scotland. its likely germany without the pigs. a german only euro would be at 1.8 vs the dollar. as for cable, it would be a bit like the old d-mark if not quite the same given the differing financial situation between germany then and uk now. as for pricing, after a couple of years it would certainly trade at some sort of premium to the cable of old. but i dont see them voting yes as scots have too much to lose. binaries still around 78/100 for the no fwiw.

July 2014 U.S. TIC flows
GVI Forex john 20:04 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile


Net Capital Flows USDb:57.7 vs. n/a vs. -153.5 (r -142.0) prev.
Long-Term Flows USDb: -18.6 vs. +25.0 exp. vs. -18.7 prev.


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GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Scotsman Poll CORRECTED at its source
48% YEs 48% NO

Livingston nh 19:57 GMT 09/16/2014
jp - watch for the "patience" or "patient" term to replace considerable time -- Yellen may adopt that G'span word in her press conference

GVI Forex john 19:56 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
GBP falls

GVI Forex john 19:55 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
ICM/Scotsman Scotland independence poll: 52% YES vs 48% NO
(prior ICM poll 49% YES versus 51% NO
- Source

Livingston nh 19:45 GMT 09/16/2014
Despite market fear of uncertainty the withdrawal of Scotland from the UK could be Pound Positive (unless the clans resort to border raids for sustenance)

The population and GDP contribution of Scotland is less than 10% - so it's a wash as far as England is concerned --
a more homogenous nation has traditionally been stronger economically than one that is concerned about "the other guy"

Mtl JP 19:41 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
nh FED will corner itself somewhat if they keep their ‘considerable time’

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:18 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Scotland survation poll likely to be 52% for No camp vs 54% for prior - Twitter
source- Source

Livingston nh 19:14 GMT 09/16/2014
What is more important to the market?

Gradual rate hikes or level of rates?

If gradual is important it is better to start sooner than later in the cycle -- or you may prefer the shock of folks who realize they are behind the curve

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:02 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile

london red 18:54 GMT 09/16/2014
expect it to be leaked again tonight, too many people involved for it not to be, so watch the minutes before.

london red 18:53 GMT 09/16/2014
one tonight (survation) at 10:30 bst and a few more tomorrow, the last before the real deal.

Mtl JP 18:49 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
what is up with the Three polls on Scotland independence due out over coming hours ?

Obama to Speak
Livingston nh 18:43 GMT 09/16/2014
AAAHH strategy -
When I have learnt what progress has been made in modern gunnery,
When I know more of tactics than a novice in a nunnery
In short, when I've a smattering of elemental strategy
You'll say a better Major-General has never sat a gee.

Obama to Speak
GVI Forex john 18:39 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Some time around 21:00 GMT, Obama to announce his program to combat ISIS. Focus is on his strategy.

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