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GVI Forex Blog 03:28 GMT 04/21/2014  - My Profile
Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand markets are closed today

Morning Briefing : 21-Apr-2014 -0327 GMT

Week Ahead
dc CB 01:54 GMT 04/21/2014
Mon: $3.25 - $4.00 billion
Wed:$2.00 - $2.50 billion

with smaller ones every day this week avg $1bln per

Japan Data
GVI Forex 01:50 GMT 04/21/2014  - My Profile
Japan's trade deficit quadruples in March as export growth slows and energy imports continue to rise.

Japan's trade deficit quadruples

Week Ahead
GVI Forex 01:42 GMT 04/21/2014  - My Profile
... In the week ahead, U.S. housing data on Tuesday will likely confirm that the spring selling season got off to a slow start last month. Commerce Department data on Wednesday is tipped to show new home sales little changed, though the durable goods orders report on Thursday is expected to show a 2.0 percent increase in overall orders and a 1.5 percent rise in the orders for core capital goods.

While the outlook for U.S. monetary policy remains key to the dollar's direction, comments from Federal Reserve officials will temporarily cease from Tuesday, due to the formal blackout that prohibits any public communications on policy until the Friday after the next regular Federal Open Market Committee meeting taking place April 29-30.


Japan Data
GVI Forex 23:55 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile



Japan Data
GVI Forex 23:41 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile
JAPAN DATA: Today, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The Ministry of Finance releases March trade data.
Median forecasts: A trade deficit worth Y1.080 trillion; exports +6.5% y/y vs. +9.8% in February; imports +16.7% y/y vs. +9.0%.
Japan will post a trade deficit for the 21st straight month in March and the shortfall is expected to be up from Y802.5 billion in February.

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

US LNG with be the End of Putin?
dc CB 23:39 GMT 04/20/2014
interesting interview Starts at 12:40

Chevron, Condi Rice, Cargil???

Keiser Rpt

US LNG with be the End of Putin?
Mtl JP 23:22 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile
dc CB that is probably a wrong question
one could speculate and maybe not be too far off why US moving against Russia... hints strongly that they've seen the latest actual non-conventional oil output.. and we may have hit peak non conventional oil. we hit peak conventional oil in 2005-2007. that's why they're going after Russia now: they
- tried with iraq (conventional invasion, couldn't hold the land)
- can't take the saudis.. not with that many jihadists ready to take them on..
- Iran has been firm against the NWO folks too, despite sanctions
- Russia has spare oil capacity now

why does control of access to crude and nat gas matter ?
coz everything that is modern techno civilization is built on cheap oil
without that a lot of debts will never be paid and everything will go to shambles. which just might be Vlad's wild joker... besides the minor inconvenience that Pritchard calls "The greatest risk is surely an "asymmetric" riposte by the Kremlin"

US LNG with be the End of Putin?
dc CB 22:54 GMT 04/20/2014
The European Nat Gas Wars.
PS...Syria is as big a part of this as is the Ukraine.
But for the Ukraine the numbers don't add up.

LNG Bloviation. LOL

Ukraine rebels call for Russian troops after deadly gunfight
HK RF@ 22:39 GMT 04/20/2014

Slavyansk (Ukraine) (AFP) - Pro-Kremlin rebels in east Ukraine appealed Sunday for help from Russian "peacekeepers" after a deadly gunfight killed at least two of their militants, shattering an Easter truce and sparking "outrage" in Moscow.

Pro-Russian Forces Work on Consolidating Power
Cambridge Joe 18:41 GMT 04/20/2014
HK RF@ 12:50

Seeing you comment on gold I took a look and it appears to me that it buy approx 1hr 20 in to the new trading period.

Just my 'hapenny-worth !

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
GVI Forex john 16:44 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile

April 20, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, April 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- Leading Indicators.

Pro-Russian Forces Work on Consolidating Power
Mtl JP 13:01 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile

What options, do u think, are opened to Vlad to help tits western financial system ?

Is western banking system 100% insulated / immune to east <-> west belligerence ?

Pro-Russian Forces Work on Consolidating Power
HK RF@ 12:50 GMT 04/20/2014

Ukrainians realized that they can't get back the cities they lost to the insurgents.

By creating this sort of provocations and attacks they hope to bring confrontations among the super-powers and possibly get some international support to drive out the insurgents.

It is a Q. of days B4 the insurgents will ask for help from Russia.

And it will come in gradually by sending undercover Russian ground forces in increasing quantities into the east.

These kind of fascists/nazis,is a staple food for the Russians, so one may look for some action.

Probably euro will plunge in tomorrow opening.

About gold, not easy to say, but better one should cover his short, as there may be still some selling power at the opening.

Pro-Russian Forces Work on Consolidating Power
Cambridge Joe 12:17 GMT 04/20/2014
Jay I have no direct answer to the question posed, only to say that fxcm's USDX indicates selling usd from approx 05:30 GMT after mkt open.

To me it looks as though Cable is a prime candidate to gain from this.

Oil I have looking slightly firmer from open with selling from around three hours in...


Pro-Russian Forces Work on Consolidating Power
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:25 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile
Assuming Russia does not step in to diffuse the situation as per the Geneva agreement, does the US etc increase sanctions? This is the risk that would escalate the mini Cold War

Whether it has an impact on markets is another question?

Long Weekend Reads
Mtl JP 07:26 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile
Livingston NH re the most recent meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, financial policy experts and bank industry executives urged central banker governors to continue their policy of cheap money

that probably refers to the IMF seminar titled “Managing the Transition to Normality - Implications for Fiscal Policy.”

at which the attendees were asked to vote “yes” or “no” on “Is the time right for central banks to unwind unconventional monetary policies?”
the vote was 63 to 37 in favor

Bottom Line
do you have Gold (held outside the banking system)

Five reportedly killed in E. Ukraine shooting
HK RF@ 05:54 GMT 04/20/2014

Five people have been reportedly killed in a shooting in Slavyansk, a city in eastern Ukraine held by anti-government protesters.

The fatalities came after a night attack on a protester checkpoint on the outskirts of the city, a Rossiya 24 news channel correspondent reported. Four cars drove by the checkpoint and opened fire at the local residents holding it, killing three people and seriously injuring another one.

A group of protesters, who had firearms unlike those holding the checkpoint, was called from their camp in the city. They opened fire at the attackers, killing two of them, the report said.

The protesters in the confrontation reportedly captured the attackers’ two cars. Firearms, explosives and aerial photos of Slavyansk were discovered there.

RIA Novosti cites a doctor at the city’s main hospital as saying that four people with gunshots were brought in overnight.

“Apparently, something serious happened,” the doctor said.

The protesters believe that they were attacked by paramilitary from the Right Sector.


Long Weekend Reads
Livingston nh 02:08 GMT 04/20/2014

Perfumed Prices at play - control??

Long Weekend Reads
Livingston nh 01:56 GMT 04/20/2014
Let's see -- every trader has a time bubble (call it a comfort zone) - every market has a time bubble (e.g., energy vs. ags) // John makes the point about longs (fundys??) vs shorts -- fundamentals ALWAYS triumphs techs BUT only if you can withstand the Time Bubble of your trade // if you used physics - techs would be effective on a quantum level (short term) and fundys would be gravity (long term)

If you trade quantum you can't care about the future of the Japanese economy but if you have deep pockets you trade fundys - the market will come to you // BUT you can't trade on the basis that "it's different this time"

So if the market persists against short term indicators larger money than you is sending you a message

Pro-Russian Forces Work on Consolidating Power
GVI Forex 00:18 GMT 04/20/2014  - My Profile
DONETSK, Ukraine — Just before the most important religious holiday of the year for both Ukrainians and Russians, the Orthodox Christian Easter celebration on Sunday, pro-Russian militant groups have paused what had been the daily expansion of their territory in eastern Ukraine.

Pro-Russian Forces Work on Consolidating Power

Knowledge is Power
GVI Forex 23:53 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
Click below for articles of interest posted this past week and see what the trading theme will be for the week ahead:

- Yellen "Clarifies" Policy Posture: Trading Themes for 13 April 2014
- Ask Your Advocate; Is it Safe to Follow a Trade Call?
- How to Trade a Political Market
- Does the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Make Sense?
- U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke

Knowledge is Power - Read These Articles

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 22:07 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands

Markets Should get off to Slow Start Monday Due to Holidays. No Major Data
GVI Forex Blog 21:10 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
The week ahead should get off to a slow start due to holidays related to Passover and Easter. Monday is a holiday in much of Europe.

Markets Should get off to Slow Start Monday Due to Holidays. No Major Data

Long Weekend Reads
Mtl JP 17:19 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
BoE and ECB , apparently, have not learned anything

My distinct feeling from the paper is that central bankers are increasingly desperate trying to

1) prevent a new bust and
2) resuscitate a new boom

Suggesting that secularization - wrap, slice n dice and bag - of crap for resale will revive an economy is a cruel joke. More importantly what it suggests is that the bankers still think they can prevent a reset and not take a hit on their poor-judgement holdings. It means that an all-cleaning financial fire down to the concrete basement is not yet imminent. Just pushed out.

Grave threats by Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia
HK RF@ 11:02 GMT 04/19/2014

"Hopefully, if those people are ready to leave the buildings, to surrender weapons, today, tomorrow, so we can encourage the OSCE mission to negotiate, to mediate and implement this. But if this will not start in a few days, I think that after Easter there will more concrete actions."

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:47 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
John, my view

1) Market is bearish on JPY and bullish USDJPY even though USD is so far down this year. JPY buying has been liquidating positions and not reversing to long side. My guess is core USDJPY longs are hanging in looking for 105-110. What has frustrated JPY bears is no hint yet from BoJ of more easing. If 102 becomes support then USDJPY bulls will look for eventual move back to 105.

2) EURUSD has gone nowhere so far this year (2013 close 1.3773) and high (1.3967) is probably in for the year so risk is for a move to a lower range at some stage (needs to establish below 1.38). ECB has made it clear that it will take action by easing policy if EUR goes much higher although actions speak louder than words.. If ECB eases policy take it as a signal it wants a weaker EUR to counter deflationary pressures.

New Russia sanctions threats as Ukraine stalemate goes on
GVI Forex 10:27 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
(Reuters) - A day after an international deal in Geneva to defuse the East-West crisis in Ukraine, pro-Russian separatists vowed not to end their occupation of public buildings and Washington threatened further sanctions on Moscow if the stalemate continued.

New Russia sanctions threats as Ukraine stalemate goes on

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 10:23 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
Im trying to figure out why positions in USDJPY in the COT are so skewed to the long USD side when if you look at a bar chart with moving averages (20-50-100-200 days) are almost dead flat?
Makes no sense to me.

By way of contrast, the EURUSD positioning is a lot less "unbalanced", but the moving average lines are all skewed upward, with the exception of the 20-day average which has gone flat.

What I am wondering is are the "fundamentals" at work here or is it something else? Is the USDJPY chart telling us that a weaker JPY is "inevitable" and the EURUSD positioning telling us that the EURUSD cannot be sustained?

The two set of charts COT and Moving Averages are telling strategic traders a story that coincide with what the longer term fundamentals tend to support.

How do we test this view via the price action? Also, more importantly, how do we know when its gone wrong?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:54 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
As John posted on GVI Forex

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:19 GMT 04/18/2014 - My Profile
Our last five EURUSD closes
M 1.3820
T 1.3813
W 1.3813
T 1.3814
F 1.3818

Long Weekend Reads
Mtl JP 01:44 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
dc CB that belongs to Mark Twain
Global Financial Stability Report - IMF April 2014

Interesting Figure 1.8 chart, to pick one.

Long Weekend Reads
dc CB 00:48 GMT 04/19/2014
pls for give the tyypoes

Long Weekend Reads
dc CB 00:39 GMT 04/19/2014
History dosen't repeat...but it rhymes..(annon)


There couldn't possibly be another war, Norman Angell was sure of that. His 1911 book The Great Illusion became a wordwide best seller. In 1913... the fourth edition is published.

As ever more vexing noises push their wasy northwards from the Balkans that early summer, the intellectuals in Berlin, Munich and Vienna are abel to calm their nerves by reading the British publicist's book.

In it Angell expounds his theory that the era ow globalization renders world wars impossible, becaue all countries are now economically interlinked to such a high degree. He also says that, alsongside the economic networks, close international ties in communication and abovee all in the world of finance mean that any war would be preposterous. He argues that, even if the German military wanted to pit its strength against England, there is 'no establishment of significance in Germany, which would ot suffer greatly'. This he claims would prevent war, because 'the entire German finacial world would exert its influence over the German government, thereby putting atop to a situation which would be ruinous for German trade'.

the President of Stanford University, utters these great words.....'The Great WAr in Europe, that eternal threat. will never come. The bankers won't come up with the money needed for such a war, and industry won't support it, so the statemen simply won't be able to do it. There will be no Great War'

p129, 1913 The Year Before the Storm, Florian Illies

Obama is a SISI (VIDEO)
HK RF@ 15:01 GMT 04/18/2014


Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 13:11 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Good Friday FX Market
London Misha 13:09 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
Just in case anyone needs levels on majors today as we go into the New York market (on the wide!).

EURUSD 1.3819 - 1.3921
USDJPY 102.36 - 102.39
GBPUSD 1.6788 - 1.6793
USDCHF 0.8824 - 0.8829
AUDUSD 0.9333 - 0.9339
USDCAD 1.1012 - 1.1017

Happy Easter!

HK RF@ 12:26 GMT 04/18/2014

SBU ramping up security operations in Kharkiv Oblast, plans to cordon off separatists in Donetsk; insurgents in Donetsk refuse to surrender occupied buildings

Amsterdam Purk 11:24 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
Good day, nice ranges today. Expect range expansion next couple of weeks in e/u.
Money maker: e/try/ special thanks to Dil. Money and mouth....

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 11:16 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
US recovery signals remain mixed, as Yellen re-emphasises dovish stance

• Peripheral European bond markets surge on hopes of ECB stimulus; PMIs watched

• Late Easter to weigh on UK retail sales, but strong labour market data dominate


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 11:12 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
FX markets were little changed as European participant were out for the Good Friday holiday. Overall looking ahead markets will gauge the April CPI and, the value of the EUR as extremely important bellwether to the outlook for easing at the ECB. EU Market Update: EU Commisison said to consider an extension to France on deficit; Markets quiet for long holiday weekend

GVI Forex Blog 08:12 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
- (CN) CHINA MAR NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 56 OF 70 CITIES V 57 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 69 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN FEB TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: -1.0% V +0.2%E (biggest de Asian Market Update: China property prices slow further; Four-party talks on Ukraine reach agreement on de-escalation** - Source

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 04:59 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
Obama: Russia doesn’t want ‘any kind of military confrontation with us’ - washingtonpost

"They’re not interested in any kind of military confrontation with us, understanding that our conventional forces are significantly superior to the Russians. We don’t need a war," Obama said

my analysis, 10.26 Jakarta Time
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 03:27 GMT 04/18/2014

raden mas

my analysis
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 02:17 GMT 04/18/2014

raden mas

3 for the price of 1
ithaca sjm 02:17 GMT 04/18/2014
sell euro/cad, sell stg/cad, buy aud/nZ$. Three trades for a 3 month time frame. monthly rsi trade. check it once a week.

AceTrader Apr 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:13 GMT 04/18/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

18 Apr 2014 01:29GMT

USD/JPY - 102.50.. Japan's FinMin Taro Aso who said Japanese govt's June growth strategy will include GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund, the pension fund for Japanese public sector employees).

In Thur's NY session, Japan's 5th largest life insurer, Mitsui Life Insurance, plans to increase its yen bond holdings by about 100 bln yen ($97 mil) in the financial year to March, its investment planning manager said on Thur.
Yoichiro Matsuta, the head of investment planning depart., told a news conference that the company also plans to raise its foreign bond holdings by about 50 bln yen, including those with n without currency-hedging.

18 Apr 2014 01:18GMT
USD/JPY - 102.53.. Usd regained traction in Thur's NY session as release of upbeat U.S. data lent support to the greenback. Later, breaking news of a joint statement following 4-way talks in Geneva on the crisis in Ukraine ended with an accord which was aimed at taking the first steps of reducing recent tensions in the conflict (see our update at 16:42GMT) boosted risk sentiment, dlr rallied broadly, the pair climbed abv Wed's 102.37 high to 102.47. Another wave of st speculative buying in the dlr emerged at Tokyo open as the Nikkei continues its near term upmove, dlr hit an intra-day high of 102.57.

Despite intra-day resumption of this week's erratic upmove, beware of a swift pullback in this holiday-thinned Tokyo session as literally all key centres are closed for the Easter Friday holiday, so intra-day volatility may increase when Tokyo market ends.

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