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02/08/15 23:30 A AU MFG PMI con: n/a pre: 44.3
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Australia Heading Towards An Avoidable Recession
Sydney ACC 01:19 GMT 08/01/2015
I've cut this piece from an article written by Peter Hartcher who is the political editor at the Sydney Morning Herald.

What he reports of John Key's comments plus his own observation encapsulates what is really wrong with Australia. Its the political leadership of this country which is dragging the nation towards a recession. There is no confidence in the government or for that matter in the federal opposition.

New Zealand's Prime Minister, John Key, brought the clarity of an outsider to Australia's situation with his observation in Friday's Financial Review: "How come, generally speaking, Australians are a bit down in the mouth at the moment? And I think it's not an economic issue, it's a confidence issue," Key diagnosed.
"Australia hasn't had a recession since 1991, but they are sort of displaying the physical ... temperament that they are sort of in recession, even though they are not. And in a way, we've got a bit of a contrast over here."
Australia is suffering not an economic recession but a political one. The difference, of course, is leadership. Key is a conservative leader who is trusted and supported to make serious reforms. The confidence he generates carries his country's economy.
Abbott is a conservative Prime Minister who is neither trusted nor supported. He is a source of despair among the business community and a depressing factor on investment.

Tony Abbott's support of Bronwyn Bishop is crippling the government


WIN 10
Livingston nh 01:08 GMT 08/01/2015
Fwiw- I put WIN 10 on a test computer - using the new EDGE browser (successor to Internet Explorer) this site works ok but still here and elsewhere there are JAVA (charts) and some Flash problems w/ new browser (like the WIN 8 app version of IE) -- IE ver. 11 still works in WIN 10 // so far I have had no problem w/ the brokers (2) or funds (3) but my primary computer won't see WIN 10 for a while yet

I didn't lose anything on installation BUT BACK-UP just because

The EDGE browser is pretty quick on the PC but I haven't used it on a touch screen yet


All aboard the Bandwagon .
dc CB 21:20 GMT 07/31/2015
“You could see a huge amount of shares flashing at the bid or offer for one second -- and disappear the next,” said William Wong, the head of institutional sales trading at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in Hong Kong.

China Market Manipulation Probe Targets Spoofers After Crash



CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 19:57 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile

 

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database


Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john bland 19:47 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just Yet
Livingston nh 19:34 GMT 07/31/2015
DATA dependent like DRUG dependent -- if all data is important to the Fed than no data is important; this is reflected in the Media circus around the ECI // the Fed thinks it is being cute by not giving the market a firm target or a firm date we will see how this plays out in the next two months // August is a Month of Mischief (think Yeltsin, Saddam, LTCM, Ruble, Bear, Gspan 87, Jackson Hole)

Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just Yet
london red 18:45 GMT 07/31/2015
dont worry john, next week we'll get ahe of +0.2% and everything will be rosy again on the wage front.

loonie. looks like closing abv lt res of 13066. tgt is a massive 1.5/1.6. thats just technicals, as wheteher fundamentals allow thats another matter. still first tgt on close abv 13066 would be 13262 a prev low, that would be doable nxt week before a deserved pullback.
euro. mother of all wicks on daily candle, weekly also not great. makes 11018 initial res early nxt week with test of 10846/72 highly likely at some stage next week.

Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 18:41 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
CNBC says the Baker Hughes oil rig count rose by 5 rigs this week. WTI closing @ $47.12 -1.47. LOD $46.92.

I heard a story earlier today that drilling continues to become more and more efficient meaning that the break-even oil price for drillers continues to fall. Falling oil prices mean falling inflation and that means continued pressure on selected central banks to maintain low interest rates.

Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just Yet
GVI Forex john bland 18:28 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
I posted a link to this article just because it is interesting. Although I still believe the FOMC wants to raise rates as quickly as possible, I feel they will be doing it despite the recent flow of data. Recent U.S. data have been mixed.

To be clear, this is not what I favor, but I still think the Fed tightens in September. Of course that is subject to decent Employment data next Friday and a month later.

Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just Yet
GVI Forex john bland 18:18 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Friday's release of the Employment Cost Index brought crummy news: Wages and salaries in the U.S. rose in the second quarter at the slowest pace since records started in 1982. A look under the hood helps dissuade drawing any dire conclusions about the state of the labor market and the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September...

Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just Yet



Post a Trade Thread
GVI Forex john bland 17:20 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Back to the neutral 1.1000 line ahead of the weekend and a very busy data week ahead.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 16:50 GMT 07/31/2015
euro. close below 10998 or thereabouts is v bearish condiering the big wick on daily candle. if buyers dont come in now itll see 10965 today.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 16:48 GMT 07/31/2015
theres some data ahead of the mpc which may or may not disappoint but i think mkt will be getting long gbp so better to go with flow on that one, easier to buy dips. look at how eurgbp came off after month end stopped at the fix. folk will use any blip in eurgbp to get long. cable has the usd rate side to contend with so its a more even fight but still worth buying on dips since the eurgbp dynamic feeds cable.

All aboard the Bandwagon .
dc CB 16:22 GMT 07/31/2015
and now back to the IMPORTANT STUFF

BREAKING NEWS

Federal judge rules Virginia can ban Confederate license plates

All aboard the Bandwagon .
dc CB 16:08 GMT 07/31/2015
Earlier today, the SNB which is perhaps the most transparent hedge fund of all central banks and actually lays out its financial statements in a respectable manner every quarter, released its results for the second quarter (and first half) of 2015. The result: another absolutely epic loss, amounting to €50.1 billion ($51.8 billion) of which €47.2 billion on currency positions - a whopping 7% of Swiss GDP

the SNB holds 15% of Switzerland's GDP in equities!

We'll give the SNB credit: while every other central bank is loaded to its gills in stocks, few dare admit it. At least the SNB files a quarterly 13-F.

The Swiss National Bank Is Long $94 Billion In Stocks, Reports Record Loss Equal To 7% Of Swiss GDP


All aboard the Bandwagon .
dc CB 15:59 GMT 07/31/2015
Launching a new category: Pictures of Economists Scratching Their Heads

TWEET


BREAKING NEWS
jkt abel 15:57 GMT 07/31/2015
yes red,i was looking to pick up some around 1.5528 but didnt have the chance, that's why i wonder if you would fadethe strength for early next week

EURCHF
Maribor 15:50 GMT 07/31/2015
Quite unsure about EUR and USDJPY targets now...furtunately EURCHF and GBPCHF are bringing me money - targets are 1,0675 and 1,52, respectively.

Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 15:41 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
but still not under 2.00%

Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 15:28 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Quite a change from earlier today ! DE 0.6170 -5.9.bp
US 2.205% -7.7bp

All aboard the Bandwagon .
dc CB 14:52 GMT 07/31/2015
on window dressing day
Treas Futures.

Either all want to be seen as Owning Treas OR None want to be seen a Shorting Treas.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 14:32 GMT 07/31/2015
cabel, eurgbp buying will stop around or after todays fix. as for cable, you know my view on it, its a buy on dips. shame we didnt test the sups today as would have set up nicely into nxt week.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 14:19 GMT 07/31/2015
eurgbp. daily channel beaten once intraday at 7114 today and fib at 7128, so thats a trade and stop zone. tgt into nxt thursday mpc...somewhat lower

GVI Data Calendar for 3 August 2015
GVI Forex Blog 14:18 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile


July 31, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, August 3, 2015. Trading News Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU/CN/JP- PMI's, EZ/UK/CH- Mfg PMI's, CA- Holiday US- Personal Income & PCE Deflator, Construction Spending, PMI's

  • Far East: AU/CN/JP- PMI's
  • Europe: EZ/UK/CH- Mfg PMI's
  • North America: CA- Holiday, US- Personal Income & PCE Deflator, Construction Spending, PMI's



GVI Data Calendar for 3 August 2015


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:12 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD has been in a chop around 1.10 for 5 months.

All aboard the Bandwagon .
dc CB 14:11 GMT 07/31/2015
the Algo's Friend

Data Moves Markets


BREAKING NEWS
jkt abel 14:10 GMT 07/31/2015
thanks red, will you fade gbpusd strength also?

All aboard the Bandwagon .
Mtl JP 14:10 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
who will hear it from Mars , someone already there ?

All aboard the Bandwagon .
dc CB 14:09 GMT 07/31/2015
Via SocGen's Albert Edwards

I have not one scintilla of doubt that the western central banks have set us up for an even bigger version of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis/Recession - but this time rock bottom interest rates and large fiscal deficits will mean only one thing; QE will be stepped up to such a pace that you will hear the roar of the printing presses from Mars.

ZH

All aboard the Bandwagon .
HK RF@ 14:07 GMT 07/31/2015
.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 14:06 GMT 07/31/2015
abel, my gut usual is to fade sharp euro rallies and same here. it fails to build on strong techs time and time again so no need to fight that trend until it stops. the ones not to fade are the slow climbers, but not been any of those in euro for a long time.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Sentiment Revised Down
GVI Forex Blog 14:05 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile

U.S. Data Charts
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final data revised slightly lower

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Sentiment Revised Down


BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:04 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
50 day 1.1093

BREAKING NEWS
jkt abel 14:02 GMT 07/31/2015
sell usd free for all now?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 14:00 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Michigan misses again

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 14:00 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final July 2015
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
93.1 vs. 94.0 exp. vs. 93.3 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer

BREAKING NEWS
london red 13:54 GMT 07/31/2015
prev low of 11114 held for now, a break of 11124 need to raise tgt to 11206. sup at 11084 needs hourly close abv here to tgt higher otherwise fatigue will set in ahead of weekend.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 13:54 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Preliminary Michigan reading already disappointed. An upward revision is expected.

BREAKING NEWS
tokyo ginko 13:48 GMT 07/31/2015
Michigan number to disappoint to final kick USD on the groin!

GT all!

Post a Trade Thread
Maribor 13:48 GMT 07/31/2015
Things are unsure, but many traders are caught on wrong foot - there is money to be made out of this.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 13:46 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
big beat on Chi PMI. Data has been out a few minutes.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 13:45 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
U.S. Chicago PMI July 2015
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
54.7vs. 50.5 exp. vs. 49.4 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Post a Trade Thread
GVI Forex john bland 13:45 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
If we know the number is strong do we buy a EURUSD break?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:42 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Chi PMI said to be well above expectations

USD/JPY 123.25 will offer strong support.
HK RF@ 13:16 GMT 07/31/2015
.

euro
hk ooozmeeh 13:14 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
sold euro here at 1.1095 , stop at 1.1130

EURCHF
Maribor 13:03 GMT 07/31/2015
According to me...EUR targets 1,1206 now and USDJPY 123,07.

ECI - FED
Livingston nh 12:57 GMT 07/31/2015
All of the ECI increase was in state and local gov't (comp +0.6 and Benefits +0.8) // private industry showed a decline in Benefits of -0.2, most of the private companies have likely pitched employees into Obamacare whenever possible



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