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06/05/16 8:10 A EZ Retail PMI con: n/a pre: 49.2
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Thursday Trading
houston mw 01:06 GMT 05/06/2016
* should be 2000 not 2001

Thursday Trading
houston mw 01:06 GMT 05/06/2016
John, how about the last 16 years. Greenspan hiking in August of 1999 then immediately cutting the first trading day of 2001 and again at scheduled meeting. One can make the case the FED is always wrong

Thursday Trading
dc CB 23:18 GMT 05/05/2016
So it's a holiday? Christmas, New Years, Easter, Thanksgiving? Passvoer? Yom Kipper?
Don't look at the calendar, LOOK AT THE VOLUME

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Markets were higher early but as the day wore on seller’s appeared taking the market to red until a late “stick save” pushed the DOW green for the win.

After all the media loves to cheer the DOW since this is what Main Street watches most. (Dave's ETF Daily)

SPY


Friday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 20:37 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
December rate hike odds at their recent lows and EURUSD lower. These markets are out of phase. NFP could shake them back to reality, either way.



Thursday Trading
nw kw 19:56 GMT 05/05/2016
Forex john tks for insight. gl.

Friday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 19:36 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment

9-May MONDAY
12:30 CH- CPI
10-May TUESDAY
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
11-May WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Output
14:30 US- Crude
17:00 US- 10-yr Auction
12-May THURSDAY
11:00 GB- Bank of England
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13-May FRIDAY
09:00 EZ- GDP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- PPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan


CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 19:35 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database


Thursday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 19:21 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
This matters big time for YOUR trading because the forex market is highly sensitive to SENTIMENT about future Fed policy. I have been illustrating this relationship daily with the Fed Funds Futures rate hike odds against a EURUSD chart.

For the record, the Fed has been consistently too optimistic (read: WRONG) about the economy for the past 3-4 years.

Thursday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 19:16 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
fwiw odds of a June Fed rate hike are running roughly at 12%. Let's see where they are late in the morning on Friday after NFP. SF Fed President Williams earlier was talking about 2-3 rate hikes this year. Odds on ONE rate hike by year end are only 7 in 10 at the moment.

Someone is very wrong here...

Thursday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 17:33 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
wti falling and dragging S&P down. As you would expect the 10-yr yield is down 1.757% -1.7bp.

EURUSD "should" be higher, but is oblivious...

CRAZY MARIO
Maribor 16:42 GMT 05/05/2016
PAR...savings nowadays does not provide capital for investment and increased production. Fractional banking credit does...

Negative interest rate for deposits is however nonsense as it keeps the gap/deficit between active and passive balance sheet money growth. It could however close the gap if money creation would increase through more credit...so it would be easier for the Ponzi banking scheme to survive.


CRAZY MARIO
PAR 16:18 GMT 05/05/2016
Negative interest rates still undermine the basic notion of investing: savers forego current consumption and lend surplus funds in hopes of a future return; that in turn provides the capital needed by businesses to expand production and employment. As the St. Louis Fed points out, placing a tax on lending in the form of negative rates restrains lending instead of stimulating it.

Euro breaks 1.14, means end of the Euro bull run.
HK RF@ 15:19 GMT 05/05/2016


In other words, expect a fight around this level.

EURGBP, GBPCHF
Maribor 15:08 GMT 05/05/2016
Out of EUR at 1,1405 - I don't like it...

EURGBP, GBPCHF
Maribor 15:04 GMT 05/05/2016
OK - I was lucky with EURGBP (sell), GBPCHF (buy) and EUR (sell) forecast yesterday and not so lucky with cable...I guess it is time to take some money off the table - small EUR long here at 1,1393 (I guess it can still go down to 1,135-1,129, but it may go up too). I will lower my exposure in EURGBP at 0,7864 and wait for market to show the way further...

Interesting thing would be (sudden) drop of cable to 1,43, but that may be just my thinking as in that case EUR may go below 1,129...

Goog luck!

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 14:30 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+68 vs. +70 exp vs. +73 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Data Calendar for 6 May 2016
GVI Forex Blog 13:52 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile

May 5, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 6, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Retail PMI
  • North America: CA/US- Employment, CA- Ivey PMI, US- Rig Count, COT Report

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment

GVI Data Calendar for 6 May 2016


e/j
hk ab 13:26 GMT 05/05/2016
Time for reloading the limbo long at 122!!!


Nothing looks good for payrolls.
HK RF@ 13:03 GMT 05/05/2016


Dollar to stall or fall.

Thursday Trading
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:41 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
I posted this earlier and stopped dead on at the 50% level

GVI Trading Room
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:55 GMT 05/05/2016 - My Profile
1.1418 = 50% of 1.1219-1.1616

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound
GVI Forex Blog 12:41 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rebound
<Click on chart for over twelve-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Rebound


Punitive Penalties for Refusing Asylum Seekers.
dc CB 12:39 GMT 05/05/2016
EU Plans $290,000 Per Person Fine on Countries Refusing “Fair Share” of Refugees

Case For Brexit Crystallized


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 12:31 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)

+274K vs. 260K exp. vs. 257K prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

eur/usd
Jkt abel 12:01 GMT 05/05/2016
Do you have a plan Purk?

eur/usd
Jkt Abel 11:57 GMT 05/05/2016
Maybe it is delayed though

Thursday Trading
Mtl JP 11:52 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile


with Abe dispensing advice to UK on Brexit...
must be priceless entertaining to London sharks

eur/usd
Hillegom Purk 11:44 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
Oops, guess a lot of traders saw a few stop in the last couple of days...
No 1,17?

Thursday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 11:35 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
from Bloomberg,com email today

Brexit weighs on the U.K.
In the U.K. today there are local and mayoral elections, but it is still the vote on the Brexit referendum that is weighing most heavily on the economy. Markit Economics said its services Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 52.3 in April, its lowest level in three years.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said “Uncertainty about the EU referendum caused customers to hold back on purchases, exacerbating already-weak demand.” The pound traded largely unchanged after the data, after falling in the previous two sessions.


Thursday Trading
Mtl JP 11:02 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile


nh think turkey has had a decent run already ?
but look at the rollover

Thursday Trading
Livingston nh 10:55 GMT 05/05/2016
Turkey lighting up the Board again -- doesn't EU have a democracy indicator for membership? How about sending those refugees back to Turkey or even better some journalists? // JP -- TRY and a more compliant CB should be good for some pips

Thursday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 10:54 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
from GVI Trading Room
Chances for a rate hike by the end of the year are now back down to around 3 in 4. EURUSD will certainly be impacted by NFP data on Friday. EURUSD no longer over-extended either way.

Other sentiment indicators:
20-day avg 1.1350
Pivot 1.1496


Thursday Trading
Mtl JP 10:23 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile


SnP as Cash Cow

Guess the direction then.
Amman wfakhoury 09:32 GMT 05/05/2016
Take care from in and out

GOLD , EURUSD , GBPUSD Move big
Amman wfakhoury 09:31 GMT 05/05/2016
May be you are drunk.
take care..don't drive

Guess the direction then.
HK RF@ 09:30 GMT 05/05/2016


Up, down, right, left, in, out.

Not a bad guess no? Like your vague posts ever.

AND THEN:::THERE IS NO FREE SIGNAL:::PAY ME MONEY HEY!!!!!!!!

50/50
Mtl JP 09:30 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
do not pass judgment - trade it instead
maybe get filthy rich
maybe get plucked

GOLD , EURUSD , GBPUSD Move big
Belgrade Knez 09:23 GMT 05/05/2016

I am surprised myself to even commenting on your posts.

Not worth. Please forget I wrote anything.


GOLD , EURUSD , GBPUSD Move big
Amman wfakhoury 09:20 GMT 05/05/2016
Belgrade Knez 08:27 GMT 05/05/2016

with tomorrow being NFP day, anyone can guess that.
__________________________-
Last NFP 01 APR market moved 30-40 pips only
___________________________
Guess the direction then.

Thursday Trading
GVI Forex john bland 09:02 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

5-May THURSDAY
JP/CH- Holiday
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales


Trading Themes --
  • Markets appear to be on a hold ahead of the key U.S. Jobs data on Friday. Following soft ADP jobs data (+156K) on Wednesday, a sub-200K reading for the month is now seen as more possible. The +/- 200K line has been seen as something of a psychological benchmark. Many have been planning based on a pick up in growth in 2Q16, so a sub-200K reading would be a disappointment.

  • Large fires in the Aberta oil sands regions of Canada have some worried about oil production in the near future and have seen WTI prices up about 3.00% today. This is a major global oil production area, but any impact is not likely to be lasting.

  • The April U.K. Services PMI unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since February 2003. This was the third U.K. PMI reading to fall in as many days. Some suggest that activity by some firms have been put on hold until after the Brexit vote next month.

  • The final shoe dropped early Wednesday afternoon in N.Y. when word got out that John Kasich was ending his campaign to become the Republican nominee for President. On Tuesday, Donald Trump had all but secured the Republican nomination to run for President after a decisive victory over Ted Cruz in the State of Indiana.



  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com


50/50
HK RF@ 08:58 GMT 05/05/2016


What is happening in Europe, is simply disgusting.

No wonder they like to be left alone.

EU referendum: 50:50 split in latest poll of polls
HK RF@ 08:55 GMT 05/05/2016


British voters are evenly split on whether or not to leave the European Union in the 23 June referendum, according to the latest poll of polls.

50/50


Breaking News: U.K. Services PMI Weaker
GVI Forex john bland 08:41 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
Brexit Vote weighing on economy?

Breaking News: U.K. Services PMI Weaker
GVI Forex Blog 08:40 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile

GB Services PMI April 2016

U.K. Services PMI weaker than expected.

Breaking News: U.K. Services PMI Weaker


USD/CHF
HK RF@ 08:36 GMT 05/05/2016


Possible target at 0.9650. Or too good to be true?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 08:31 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
Another miss in UK PMI data. Lowest since Feb 2013.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 08:30 GMT 05/05/2016  - My Profile
GB Services PMI April 2016
U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

52.3 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.7 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer



Next Page





WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

5-May THURSDAY
JP/CH- Holiday
8:28 GB- SVC PMI
6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment
12:30 CA- Retail Sales


Trading Themes --

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