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FOREX FORUM
30/07/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf con: -8.4 pre: -7.5
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sd sf 22:43 GMT 07/29/2014
GBP
as you will remember they got stopped quite a few times around 1.7095/1.7125 so they didn't hold longer term shorts on the move down to here

but what they are doing today is looking to sell 50 52 58
and buy 18 12 06 + 05

Eur
obviously a different type of move where they were able to build more of a position and trade around it.

this morning they are buying back shorts @8/9 and bid for more 97/98/99

you can see the reason why based on daily ranges - they just aren't large enough to stop them from taking profit every 40-50 points

AUDNZD

this one is the real mover in the automated FX Space with 1.1050 last line of defence before 1.1150-1.12

I actually don't have a position in this at this time - but I would put on a small manual long looking for a decent up move to clear out all the stale shorts.

eurcad/gbpcad - actually seen bids this morning rather than any profit taking from the lower buying .. continuation move I suppose is on the cards.

Looking at my book - the difference must come shortly where the daily ranges expand so the USD can rally some more .. and the automated strategies don't just t/p on every small move.... if we don't see that and we stay small ball then the USD rally will just end.

Calendar -- Daily Forex News
GVI Forex john 22:40 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile


July 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision
  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- Mortgage Statistics, ADP Private Jobs, GDP, Factory Orders, Weekly Crude, 7-yr Auction, Fed Decision.



AUD and NZD
GVI Forex Blog 21:43 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
US dollar strength and lower global interest rates were notable features overnight. Expectations the US central bank will slightly upgrade its economic outlook tomorrow, plus EU sanctions on Russia, appeared to be the main factors at play overnight. Equities were mixed, the Eurostoxx 50 closing up 0.6% but the S&P500 is currently down 0.4%.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts


Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 21:23 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile

WEDNESDAY
US ADP Jobs
US GDP 2Q14prelim
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRB Fed Rates
THURSDAY
DE Unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
CA GDP mm
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

Chart Points -- Trading Points
Livingston nh 21:20 GMT 07/29/2014
jp - tomorrow a break above 92 locks in the rally

Chart Points -- Trading Points
Mtl JP 21:08 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
technically usdcad stayed above its 200dma gv chartpoint.
-
Bottom Line
It is now incumbent upon the (Fibonacci) retracement theory to prove itself next.

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 20:50 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables


Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
dc CB 20:31 GMT 07/29/2014
it's all aTwitter.

4% GDP, up from -2.9% almost a 7% rise...all based on Tweets and Adverts.

Yes that will be the headline tom morning. :))))))

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
Livingston nh 20:05 GMT 07/29/2014
NOMINAL GDP - 4.4% // this is the key fig not some pointy head elite preferred number

If nominal is sub 4% there may be a real problem

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
Mtl JP 20:01 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
CB maybe the FED collective will spin things is such a way as to keep risk diluted, coz in a unified view lies both strength and vulnerability

GDP views range from recovery toógasp!órecession - CNBC

a dispertion and divergence of views by the plebs is a good thing for the overlords

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
Livingston nh 19:57 GMT 07/29/2014
CB - FOMC may be lucky to keep status quo - any lovey dovey talk in statement (now a short story length rather than two simple paragraphs) risks a dissent or two // the looney toon BUBBLE guys need to get discredited before the bubble actually shows up

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
london red 19:56 GMT 07/29/2014
stocks...with gdp up before the open last chance to sell is now. im shooting for 2.5%. but will be a dip buyer of the greenback on any fallout on this figure as market has bit between its teeth and pre fomc wont let up for long.

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
dc CB 19:49 GMT 07/29/2014
Gammy and Group will have no choice tomorrow but to tweek the language just enough to hint at not being so devoted to possibly raising rates just a smidge or maybe a tad sometime in the next year or two.

'cause Jeeeeesuuuusssss the StoX Market is Crashing right before out eyes...Oh the humanity.

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:46 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Obama to Speak
dc CB 19:45 GMT 07/29/2014
Today the 2:15 Express left the station right on time.
It just ran the wrong way.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Livingston nh 19:41 GMT 07/29/2014
red - CAD JPY et al are breaking LT trendlines/Avgs --- when the LT support/Resistance collapses there is usually a test so EUR could go back towards 1.35 // Cable may be next - LT is still favorable (no avgs broken) but Gilts are now back below double digit Treasury spreads and could go negative like early Spring

Some Vol, some Vol, my kingdom for some vol

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
Mtl JP 19:40 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
from another Top Fed Watcher

Ron Paul: Stocks are in a bubble and will crash - on CNBC

"...The market has to correct, and who's going to call it a crash until it happens? We're in for a major correction, I think. I think we're very, very vulnerable," he said. "When it's artificial, it's distorted, it's vulnerable, and it's just looking for the correction."...

Obama to Speak
dc CB 19:38 GMT 07/29/2014


WilliamBanzai7

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


Obama to Speak
Paris ib 19:26 GMT 07/29/2014
"Russians have long been able to forgive domestic woes if an outside enemy is lurking."

hhahahahhahahahahahahah.... whereas Americans, no!! They have access to the real, absolute truth....

Let's make a list: Saddam Hussein, Osama Bin Laden, Putin..... who's next?

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
london red 19:23 GMT 07/29/2014
nh, v interesting. i referred to these monthlies last week, not as a reason to buy but to just be wary. 50 month is just below the figure so it does seem we are at an infexion point. with the end of month fast approaching, its possible we will be 133xx by end thursday. but you'd look for a pullback then since its a new month and retracement theory applies 99% of time, the 1% is a major unexpected market moving event. in which case the following monthly bar is as big or bigger than the previous and retracement is minimal. so you'd be looking at 130-131 august low. as for major event? fed? russia? if you dont get this its quite possible 135xx trades august.

Obama to Speak
Livingston nh 19:15 GMT 07/29/2014
My wife just suggested afternoon soap operas affect his timing


Obama to Speak
Livingston nh 18:52 GMT 07/29/2014
John - my greater concern would be "when is he going to leave" (The Man Who Came To Dinner)

Obama to Speak
GVI Forex john 18:50 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
It must be fun having him to dinner. You would never know when he is going to show up!

Obama to Speak
GVI Forex john 18:47 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Obama comments delayed until 20:10 GMT. So what is new here?

Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 18:42 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
10-yr up in price => yield down => Gold uP in price
lets say 10-yr the leading leg

Obama to Speak
GVI Forex john 18:29 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
at around 18:50 GMT. Hearing its on EU sanctions against Russia.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 18:27 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.464% -2bp after strong 5-yr auction yields are back down. Credit markets have had a deflationary feel today. It can't be the Fed decision tomorrow can it?

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
GVI Forex Blog 18:16 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision

The Wednesday focus is the ADP Private Payrolls Survey. The perennials problem is that the ADP data are not a reliable predictor of NFP. A steady Fed Policy Decision is expected as well.

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday


Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 18:14 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile


nh 17:54 - thx 4 that.
I ll be happy to see the red line fib (see pic) hit first if/when 1.34 breaks down

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Livingston nh 17:54 GMT 07/29/2014
wkly 144 EMA (1.3419) has been broken for first time since Ben's penguinesque cold feet "NEVER Mind" taper last September - a close here or below this week opens a lot of white space until 1.28// the 1.34 lvl is just an option number - all the short term support is gone and now wkly may be gone
Further out the 21Month sma is 1.3401 (still below 55 mthly EMA @22) so there is a decent chance the monthly could also break by Thursday

Downtime reading.
dc CB 17:27 GMT 07/29/2014
lawyers for three traders filed a Second Amended Complaint in Federal Court against Duffy, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade and other individuals involved in leadership roles at the CME Group.

The conduct alleged in the lawsuit, backed by very specific examples, reads more like an organized crime rap sheet than the conduct of what is thought by the public to be a highly regulated futures exchange in the U.S.

Lawsuit Stunner: Half of Futures Trades in Chicago Are Illegal Wash Trades


Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
london red 17:26 GMT 07/29/2014
and its what'll keep the rallies small until done.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 17:20 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
red- yes you are correct.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 17:15 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
ya solid... but for who ? 1.72% / yr is an insult but as long as players are eager and willing...

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
london red 17:15 GMT 07/29/2014
barrier, john, at 134.

Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 17:08 GMT 07/29/2014
Wowie Zowie the 5 year auction

Indirect: 16,851,294,000
of the $34billion
Directs: less than $10
The PD's less than $10bln

1.69%

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
5-yr 1.72% bid-to-cover 2.81 vs 2.74.

solid auction.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Previously on a day like today. the 1.3400 line would have been a stop magnet. The big players would have run stop through that price to knock them all out. I guess the market has changed are those big player gone now, or is there an "invisible hand". holding prices at big figures to slow the descent of the EURUSD.

Thoughts?

Chart Points -- Trading Points
london red 16:50 GMT 07/29/2014
yes close abv 200 day bullish then a dip on US gdp would be nice 10780/10810 and then you need the fed to be brave. following day iffy canadian gdp could see this at 10940 by end of week. fed is the kink here though, lets see if they step up.

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 16:48 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
interesting
red 16:33 / market needs fed to step up
Livingston nh 12:29 / time for Mr. Market to stage an intervention

Chart Points -- Trading Points
Mtl JP 16:41 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile


In case usdcad 200dma holds , some potential target considerations

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 16:36 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile

Europe markets went into a "risk-off" posture early and that set the stage early in the U.S. Sentiment changed mid-morning in New York trading when the latest Consumer Confidence reading was much stronger than expected.   The EURUSD is lower at 1.3408, -30 pips.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are ending lower and some yields are at multi-century lows. Yields on the European periphery are  mixed. EZ 10-yr 1.12%, -3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.55%  -3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly higher at their closes. . U.S. share futures are turning positive.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 16:35 GMT 07/29/2014
need to wait and see how it reacts to Gammy.
Usual is lower, but after the last meeting it jammed higher.

as I wrote when Yellen was doing the Humphry Hawkins, don't usually trade this, except for the "guareeteeeeeeed" downs:

1) whenever the Chair speaks before Congress.
2) whenever the FMOC meets.

Watch Out for a Surprise
london red 16:33 GMT 07/29/2014
took some time to break but now that they have, 9050 on swissy will be a marker for tomorrow. if held on a closing basis then dollar still up. fomc boxed into a corner must deliver goods or dollar bust vs the stronger majors. more on fomc tomorrow but market needs fed to step up as could be start of interesting phase for dollar.

Watch Out for a Surprise
Mtl JP 16:25 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
dc CB 16:15 at what price dip u gonna buy ?

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 16:17 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
July 29, 2014, J.P. Morgan cutting hundreds of tech-support jobs
-
maybe not a good thing... in case Vlad/Chinese decide to play cyber hanki-panki
you gotta wonder if jpm is in trouble or something
-

Watch Out for a Surprise
dc CB 16:15 GMT 07/29/2014


No suprise here on the first day of the FMOC

FX Spot Volumes
Kazan 16:07 GMT 07/29/2014
Hello guys!
Can anybody know, Reuters Eikon for 1700 chf per month is only platform for have a look to FX Volumes (not number of ticks)

Is it alternative for retails trader?

Thank you before hands, Anthony


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