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FOREX FORUM
17/09/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates con: 0.25% pre: 0.25%
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cable
Mtl JP 17:14 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Scottish independence: What if result is a dead heat?

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile


Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of page are current.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
london red 17:02 GMT 09/17/2014
well its made a lower low, last daily low was 10934, weve gone a little below before bouncing back. 200 day ma excepted at 10911, youd look at 10880/65/50 now but youre not going to have usdjpy and usdcad breaking in opposite directions for long.
fwiw audcad i have weekly trendlines crossing at 9815 this week.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Mtl JP 16:59 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
usdcad +/- 1 cent around 1.10 is probably a confort zone
judging for the last COT

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
SaaR KaL 16:34 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Out of cable Longs
Holding few GBPJPY Long
Longing adding USDCAD
tgt 1.12

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
nw kw 16:20 GMT 09/17/2014
usdcad cant find support until aud/cad finds new support its liquidating

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
london red 16:05 GMT 09/17/2014
we heard at the start of the year that a range of 90-110 is acceptable for the majority of japanese firms influenced by the rate.

the usdcad rate on the other hand looks decidely offered. they have tried to join the dollar rally all day and there have been some big up spikes, but just keeps getting sold. i didnt buy the dip to 35/40, just feels heavy.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Kuroda sounded unconcerned about JPY weakness in comments yesterday.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 15:48 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
So far USDJPY HOD is 107.62. Dead on PIvot point R2 of 107.62. We view to use pivot points as a zone around the levels we publish. they can be used as stop-loss or take profit levels.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Mtl JP 15:45 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
red Kuroda will have a chance to fix any market mis-behaviour in a scheduled speech early tomorrow morn

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 15:41 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Markets remain in a MIXED RISK posture heading into the FOMC decision later and the Scottish referendum vote tomorrow. Many are now expecting no change the the "extended time period"  by the Fed today. Also latest polls appear to favor a no vote in Scotland tomorrow but the vote is still to close to call.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.05%, -1.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.52% -1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.573%,  -0.6bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed . Bourses in Europe are closing higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
london red 15:35 GMT 09/17/2014
all i will say is usdjpy better hold onto its gains after the breakout today, as false breaks at highs tend to mark out at least multiday tops.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Mtl JP 15:31 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
FED priesthood loosing market's respect for its inflation and interest rates "guidance" is long overdue.
x-fingers

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Estes Park JM 15:25 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
JP that's the risk as I see it

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 15:24 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile


euro testing its hrly R and S lines
waiting for breakout

Buy USD
Central Kwun 15:03 GMT 09/17/2014
Buy usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:

JPY weaknesses need all non USD retrace

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Mtl JP 15:03 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
USDJPY breaking N of Sep 12 107.39 high

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Livingston nh 15:03 GMT 09/17/2014
With all the media (3 or 5 or 6 Things to watch) about a phrase or term there has been no meaningful discussion of the Fed's business cycle outlook -- the dots are unrealistic projections of the status quo // What if economy moves into recession with ZIRP in effect? How much of a headwind does the continued negative real rate contribute to a stronger economy?

No longer in a crisis -- more water after the fire is out just means an eventual flood

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Mtl JP 15:00 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
market will lead the FED ?
the FED behind the ball ?

is that saying the FED at risk loosing control of rates ??

cable
london red 14:47 GMT 09/17/2014
fib 16323, trendline 21 second trendline 16292. both off 15min chart. the fib is a lt biggie 172/160

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Estes Park JM 14:46 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Technicals may work before key events but new ball game afterwards. Market more balanced than at start of the week,.

As for FOMC, market will spin it in the way it wants but getting the feeling it will eventually lead the Fed rather than vice versa so matter what is said today.

cable
london red 14:41 GMT 09/17/2014
gbpjpy jan/july 14 trendline 175.58. high so far 54.

cable
london red 14:39 GMT 09/17/2014
cable sitting abv 16347 fib. cleared a couple of big hurdles, now 16386 a former fib is target. abv there 16417, the 61.8 of 16650/16050 fall. but cant see higher than 16386 ahead of fed, after that its all to play for. so prudent to take some profit 16350-16386.

US EIA Weekly Inventories
GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +3.670 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -0.970 prev.
Gasoline: -1.600 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -2.380 prev.
Distillates:+0.280 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +4.090 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.00% vs. 92.10% exp vs. 93.90% prev
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

loonie
london red 14:27 GMT 09/17/2014
looking to buy 10935/40. stop ideal below a couple of fibs in the 20's but 200 day ma (10911) not far below so stop best placed just below there at 1.0907. if not traded will reassess after fed.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 14:27 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.580%

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
New York jGVI Calendar 14:21 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Sounds like this will be a low-interest speech.

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
New York GVI Calendar 14:20 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
September 18 Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households

At the Corporation for Enterprise Development's 2014 Assets Learning Conference, Washington, D.C. (via prerecorded video)
8:45 a.m. ET

U.S. NAHB Index September 2014
Mtl JP 14:13 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
home builders hyper optimistic, level last seen 9-yrs ago

Scotland
GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
New poll 52% No 48% YES. Same as all the others. Including "undecided" leaning. 50% NO 45% YES.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
CNBC's Steve Liesman backing off on his forecast that the Fed would be removing the "extended time period" wording from its policy statement. He started the talk about the removal of those terms about one week ago. People felt he was revealing something authoritative, but it turned out it was just his OPINION.

U.S. NAHB Index September 2014
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
59 vs. 56 exp. vs. 55 prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


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Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Mtl JP 13:43 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
FED gang needs to maintain hawk(ish) tone, even if it oooh and ahhhs about things "on the other hand"

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Livingston nh 13:37 GMT 09/17/2014
Maybe FOMC could reinstate the simple 2 paragraph note and dump the econ monograph

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Sciacca FD 13:35 GMT 09/17/2014
John,considerable time is on its way out I think. If not this meeting then the next in my opinion. Its going to be replaced by something to do with LABOUR MARKET SLACK. The fed can't raise rates until they figure out what to do with the losers on their balance sheet, its not about the QUANTITY it about the QUALITY on the balance sheet. I will be looking to short USD

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:29 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
Great observation by Al on GVI Forex

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
Dillon AL 05:37 GMT 09/17/2014 - My Profile
10 days the marked has touched 1.2950 ! so taking a swing high of 1.3150 to the current 1.2950 and projecting it to a swing low creates 1.2750 !!!

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 13:25 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
I keep a close watch on July 2015 Fed Funds futures as a measure of market sentiment. What could be a better indicator of sentiment than the level at which actual supply and demand are in balance? Currently they are predicting two 25bp rate hikes by the maturity of that contract. Odds roughly now are 100% on that scenario. Fed Funds futures have not been reliable forecasts in the past, but as I said, they reflect current sentiment.

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
Mtl JP 13:16 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
pundits claim to be watching “it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time” for change

Current Conditions: MIXED RISK
GVI Forex john 13:04 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.565% -1.4bp

Hawkish sentiment for the Fed decision later today has been waning. The surprise now would be if the Fed REMOVES the "extended time period" language in their statement.

Weekly Trading Planner
london red 12:46 GMT 09/17/2014
pollsters will come v badly out of this, biut like ratings agencies after lehman. do remember that scot population is over 5m and mini 85% will vote, probably more than 90%. polls generally only 1000 samples. also remember polls are votes without consequence. thats why even exit polls differ from the outcome quite often.
gbp downside is quite large and protracted on a yes, while the no is likely to see a small rebound which is going to get sold into although it should close friday higher than thursday close, as people will take the opp to position themselves from fed normalising policy going forward. we know carney will raise in spring, thats in the price. i am looking for 16485-16630 max for cable.

U.S. Consumer Price Index August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
U.S. August CPI depressed. FOMC will notice...


loonie
london red 12:35 GMT 09/17/2014
have closed long position at 10966, erring on side of caution. us cpi not good at all. will be looking to buy again after dust settles. possibly at similar levels/stop.

U.S. Current Account 2Q14 (USD bln)
GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile





ALERT
-98.5 vs. -113.8 exp. vs. -111.2 (r -102.1) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

U.S. Consumer Price Index August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
Headline:
m/m:-0.20% vs. +0.00% exp. v +0.10% pre
y/y: +1.70% vs. +1.90% exp. v +2.00% pre
Core:
m/m: 0.0% vs. +0.20% exp. v +0.10% pre
y/y: +1.70% vs. +1.90% exp. v +1.90% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


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Weekly Trading Planner
london red 12:22 GMT 09/17/2014
officially result due 7am bst but the final result will be collated from 32 regions which will come in at different times and that means there are likely to be leaks along the way. at some point during the night, the market will start leaning sharply to one side. there are still a few polls due today and tomorrow. today: 1700gmt stv, 2100gmt sunday times. with the no vote being largely expected the surprise can only come on the yes side.

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 12:19 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
I heard a forex guy out of London say earlier that the GBPUSD falls 5% om a YES vote for independence and that it will not react much to a NO vote.

One reason for the 25% chance of a YES vote by bettors is said to be because of how the polls deal with the "soft" NO votes. The view is that the rough 52%-48% against independence understates the opposition.

As for how the vote is likely to turn out, I only can pass along what I hear. I do know that voters in the UK have a long history of confounding pollsters. So nothing would surprise me.

As for the market reaction, I agree that the reaction to a pro-independence vote will be greater.

Any thoughts on all of this??

cable
london red 12:09 GMT 09/17/2014
couple of trendlines on 15 min chart at 16306 and 16285, priced has closed abv both all day, but the first steeper line (currently 16306) has been breached intrabar, although no close below. while cpi core at 0.2 seems about right, the main cpi f/c at 0.0% might be set a bit low and could easily come in at 0.1% which might just give a small pop to the dollar. i would use any fall in cable to buy intraday. yes the fed is later and interest normally tails off but with the referendum in play the urge to position for the no will be too great and that should be enough to sustain trade between 16320 and 16350 before some profit take ahead of fed.

Weekly Trading Planner
Mtl JP 12:05 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile
re Scot's vote:
polls stay open till 22:00 local time; allegedly no one in line will be turned away.
Bottom Line
Vote result should be available sometime early morning hour local time on the 19th.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 11:49 GMT 09/17/2014  - My Profile


Current daily ranges and latest spot rates updated on today's Pivot Point table. Forquick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.

cable
london red 11:25 GMT 09/17/2014
couple of imp fibs at 16323 and 16347. if they get through the latter and stay abv 16350, its likely market is partially pricing in the "no" outcome and i dont think there will be much joy in trying to top pick before the result. after result initial topside could be from 16485 upwards, but you cant see a move abv 16650. in the event of a no i would be looking to sell c. 16605. as said before the market wont wait for the result and will start moving earlier.


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