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04/08/15 14:00 A US Factory Orders con: 1.70% pre: -1.00%
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Tallinn viies 11:31 GMT 08/04/2015
in my humble view euro may stay here as long as needed but in the end euro will follow oil. and this direction is down.
I really would love to short euro near 200 day ma but probably it is not possible in next 6 months time.
so I would be happy even with 1,12. a bit below last month high. 1,02 target this year and 0,85 long term target

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london red 11:22 GMT 08/04/2015
re stops, because of fridays topside clearout, the only stops abv the mkt in play are those put on since the start of the week - so not a great deal given the reluctance to place big trades ahead of the nfp. theres a big 110 option expiring today which may pull, plus some res at 11025 and of course 10998. bit higher up we have 11035/63/85 but folk likely to fall over themselves trying to fade such high bounces.
the longer we can stay around 110 the bigger the break come friday. certainly you would expect at least 1 and a half figs off 110 maybe more.

Tuesday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 11:07 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
Mild Risk-Off ??

DAX -24
S&P -4

DE 0.592% +1.8bp
US2.162% +0.3bp

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GVI Forex john bland 10:59 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
from GVI Forex Lots of red on top in EURUSD table below suggesting its micro-trend is down. There is no doubt that the psychological 1.1000 level continues to dominate. I think I have been alone watching the 200-day moving average converging into spot. It still has a way to go at 1.1437. My point is that its the moving average not spot that has been moving, indicating that we are stuck in a trading range.

The key question coming into every market is where the stops lie. I don't see this market as over-extended, but suspect that to the extent there are stop that they skew to above the 1.1000 line.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:48 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
A pause in the currency war or an end to it for the RBA?

Daily chart shows .7450 as a key resistance and the major one for me is around .7535, which was the breakdown level.

Not a forecast, just pointing out what charts show.

Credit Agricole - ELA
PAR 10:12 GMT 08/04/2015
Maybe Europe should fine US banks for all the toxic products they sold to European investors in the past .

Credit Agricole - ELA
PAR 10:08 GMT 08/04/2015
Credit Agricole could use ELA ECB to pay its USA fines .
USA is getting rich by fining European banks .

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GVI Forex john bland 10:06 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
Quick comment EURUSD 1.1000 is still in play.

PAR 09:58 GMT 08/04/2015
Prices are low because there is an oversupply in oil, agricultural products partly selfinflicted by the European sanctions agianst Russia .

Demand is low because wages and salaries decline or do not increase .

Older Savers dont spend because they get ZERO interest at the bank and dont want to be wiped out by the next stockmarket crash.

Most of European problems are caused by ECB and European politics . Gigantic immigration problem is caused by French inspired regime change in Libya. Iran oil will start flooding Europe shortly .German electricity is produced by wind and solar .

The world is changing and the ECB is looking atthe past not the future .

london red 09:52 GMT 08/04/2015
wti has barely traded in last months range even taking into account ranges on fall from 100 to 50 bucks. i would hope we see 43.60/44 before a bounce to 46/49.90 but it may have already started.

GVI Forex john bland 09:41 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
I don't know if you are being serious. What would a central bank do with commodities?

I don't understand any of this. Lower energy prices should stimulate demand in consuming countries. Instead of paying money to overseas producers, those funds can go to domestic producers of other items. Isn't that is a good thing? Are these economists insane?

PAR 09:33 GMT 08/04/2015
Instead of buying bonds ECB is now planning to buy brent oil , base metals , corn , wheat ,soybean , precious metals and whatever else can drive up producer prices .

Hollande is urging ECB to buy French milk and French meat . I think he may persuade GS Draghi .

AceTrader Aug 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:23 GMT 08/04/2015
04 Aug 2015 08:14GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro rebounded after an initial fall to 1.0932 in Asia due to renewed cross-buying interest and price ratcheted higher to 1.0979 in European morning before easing.

At present, investors are awaiting the release of euro zone's producer prices for June at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.0% m/m and -2.2% y/y vs previous readings of 0.0% and -2.0% respectively.

For now, offers are noted in 1.0990-1.1000 with stops reported just above there, whilst bids are noted at 1.0950-1.0940 and more below with stops touted below 1.0920.

GVI Forex john bland 09:11 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
As noted, today the RBA dropped its comment as to the need for a lower exchange rate, but its monetary policy remains accomodative.

"... Recent information confirms that domestic inflationary pressures have been contained. That should remain the case for some time, given the very slow growth in labour costs. Inflation is thus forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.

In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending..."

AUDUSD is up about 100 pips at the present time

GVI Forex john bland 09:03 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
These PPI data cannot be welcome at the ECB. EURUSD slumps a touch.

GVI Forex john bland 09:00 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
Eurozone PPI June 2015

mm: -0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.
yy: -2.20% vs. -2.20% exp. vs. -2.00% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 08:57 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
The Aussie dollar rose 1.25 percent to an almost two-week high after the Reserve Bank dropped a long-used reference in its post-policy-meeting statement to a further decline of the currency being necessary. -- rtrs

RBA Turns Less Dovish, U.K. Construction PMI Misses. U.S. Data Light
GVI Forex Blog 08:57 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile

04 AUGUST 2015, 08:550 GMT >> FOREX NEWS  >> AU- RBA turns less dovish  >> AU-Retail Sales improve >> GB- Construction PMI misses >> US- Factory Orders, API Crude DUE >> FOREX >> USD down,  EUR CROSSES: mixed, COMMODITY CURRENCIES: stronger, esp AUD>> EQUITIES: FAR EAST- mixed, EUROPE- mixed, U

RBA Turns Less Dovish, U.K. Construction PMI Misses. U.S. Data Light

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Construction PMI Misses
GVI Forex john bland 08:38 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
U.K. Service PMI due tomorrow. Other PMIs appear to be slowing...

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Construction PMI Misses
GVI Forex Blog 08:36 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile


U.K. Charts

U.K. Construction PMI misses forecasts

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Construction PMI Misses

EUR et al.
Maribor 08:33 GMT 08/04/2015
GBP: boyz may want to shake out weak longs with rate going to ~1,552 before up.

GVI Forex john bland 08:30 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
Construction PMI misses GBP lower.

GVI Forex john bland 08:30 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
Construction PMI July 2015
U.K. Charts


57.1 vs. 58.5 exp. vs. 58.1 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

EUR et al.
Maribor 08:10 GMT 08/04/2015
EUR changed trend to up (now 1,0975) - can test lower for few hours, but uptrend is confirmed in my analysis with AUDUSD uptrend. EURCHF is also going up - maybe slowly, but surely. EURAUD and GBPAUD hit bottom of the channel, so I expect them going up also, but maybe a little later than main pairs. USDJPY may go to ~123,50 first, than maybe (or maybe not) up.

Amman wfakhoury 08:08 GMT 08/04/2015
Amman wfakhoury 12:08 GMT July 31, 2015
To wakhoury master : Reply
Gold going down
1075.60 confirmed .
1081.63 return
you always read the first part of my signals .
There is return level if the price move in opposite direction , you have to trade it.

bali sja 07:40 GMT 08/04/2015
the moment FM's trades are posted on GV, especially on majors, they tend to hit the stops first, no idea why, maybe he is been target-locked :)

but for minor and exotic pairs, his calls are usually safe

haifa ac 07:13 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
You had some wonderful years of trading
Recently you hardly post.
My question: Do you find markets more difficult last 2-3 years or are you just taking it easy?
If the answer is YES to the first part-- could you , kindly, share your view-- why is the market so difficult lately?!

PAR 05:55 GMT 08/04/2015
Long USDJPY 123.95 . Target 125.50.

AceTrader Aug 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:21 GMT 08/04/2015
Update Time: 04 Aug 2015 01:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0932
Euro's strong retreat to 1.0965 in NY session on Friday after early intra-day brief rally to 1.1114, then marginal weakness to 1.0941 yesterday signals further choppy trading below last week's top at 1.1129 would continue and with mild downside bias.
However, break of 1.0894 (reaction low on Thursday) needed to indicate correction from July's 12-week trough at 1.0808 has ended and yield weakness towards this support later.

On the upside, only a move back above 1.1114 would bring re-test of 1.1129, break would shift risk to upside for stronger retracement of early erratic fall from 1.1467 (May) towards 1.1216.

GVI Forex 01:37 GMT 08/04/2015
Stellar call on GVI Forex

AUD - retail sales
SydoJoe 00:49 GMT 08/04/2015
Westpac economics today have this spot on in my mind - im expecting a very good number here , due to financial year end buying by small business due to the tax break the government handed down in the may budget.. not many commentators are talking about this today..
aud could spike up to .7285/95 region on a .7 print but think will be faded

Syd 01:33 GMT 08/04/2015
DJ Australia Jun Imports +4% On Month
Australia Jun Exports +3% On Month
Australia Jun Trade Deficit A$2.93B Vs Deficit A$3.1B Consensus
Australia 2Q Retail Sales +0.8%; Consensus
Australia Jun Adjusted Retail Sales +0.7%; Consensus +0.5%

Syd 01:33 GMT 08/04/2015
DJ Australia Jun Imports +4% On Month
Australia Jun Exports +3% On Month
Australia Jun Trade Deficit A$2.93B Vs Deficit A$3.1B Consensus
Australia 2Q Retail Sales +0.8%; Consensus
Australia Jun Adjusted Retail Sales +0.7%; Consensus +0.5%

GVI Forex 01:18 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
AUD data on retail sales, chatter is it could beat

Post a Trade Thread
Sydney Flash 00:30 GMT 08/04/2015
Entry: Target: Stop:

No big bets in the G3 until US employ comes out.

Come on RBA, send us a bone.

GVI Forex 00:22 GMT 08/04/2015  - My Profile
"The longer that crude takes to recover, the greater the risk to energy capex plans for 2016 which in turn feeds into the Bank of Canada's projections and lowers the hurdle for further easing down the line," said Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"Next resistance targets for USD/CAD are 1.3246 and 1.3383 though it will take ongoing crude weakness to maintain the USD/CAD rally.",,, RTRS

Post a Trade Thread
Miami JN 23:23 GMT 08/03/2015
Sell eurusd above 1.10, buy usdcad below 1.31 for a 1.32 test, buy usdjpy below 123.50

Interest rate gap between investors and owner-occupiers to widen
Syd 21:32 GMT 08/03/2015
Property investors should get used to paying increasingly higher interest rates compared to people paying off a loan on a house they live in, mortgage brokers and experts say.

"My expectation would be you could see a 70 to 80 basis point gap between owner-occupier and investor as we move forward into the next year," he said.

nw kw 21:12 GMT 08/03/2015
Apple WATCH why are the reversals on 20th?

Ask Your Advocate: Help! I Am Getting Slipped on My Stops
dc CB 20:42 GMT 08/03/2015
Updated Aug. 3, 2015 4:01 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON—Senior officials at the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve questioned the benefits of high-frequency trading in U.S. Treasury markets, suggesting market overseers are building the case for new rules targeting the firms.

Regulators Question High-Speed Trading in Treasurys

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 19:40 GMT 08/03/2015  - My Profile

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Ask Your Advocate: Help! I Am Getting Slipped on My Stops
dc CB 19:38 GMT 08/03/2015
The first trader convicted by a jury in the global Libor rate-rigging scandal was a maths whiz nicknamed "Rain Man"

so far, no senior executives have been prosecuted in a scandal that helped shred public faith in an industry and has cost some of the world's biggest banks and brokerages $9 billion in fines and seen 21 people charged.

On a phone call on July 12, 2010, transcripts of which were read out in court, Hayes's boss Chris Cecere asked Andrew Morton, Citigroup's global head of rates based in London, whether the treasury department had reported "little Hoshino".

"Yeah I heard that they, they, uh, complained to compliance or something like that," Morton says. "...I told you. Dude, I told you multiple times. Be censored careful with those guys."

Cecere replied: "What the censored kind of bank is this?... Turn your own people in instead of just picking up the phone and saying look, this is really not comfortable, please stop it..."

Hayes said he was "coached" by both Cecere and Brian Mccappin, the former head of Citigroup's investment bank in Japan, to tell Citigroup's investigating lawyers he had shared only general "market colour" and had not asked for rate moves.

Cecere, Mccappin, Morton and Hoshino have not been charged with wrongdoing.

Insight - How Libor whiz Rain Man became 'the guy everyone was going to blame'

PMI's Mixed. Some a Slightly Better While Others Disappoint
GVI Forex Blog 19:29 GMT 08/03/2015  - My Profile

04 AUGUST 2015, 00:00 GMT >> FOREX NEWS  >> EZ/UK PMIs better >> CN- PMI miss>> CH PMI misses>> US- Personal Income better, PCE Deflator stable, Mfg PMIs weaker >> FOREX >> USD mixed,  EUR CROSSES: mixed, COMMODITY CURRENCIES: mixed >> EQUITIES: FAR EAST- down, EUROPE- mixed, U

PMI's Mixed. Some a Slightly Better While Others Disappoint

dc CB 18:56 GMT 08/03/2015

3 Index Heavy Weight. Albatross

Apple WATCH and Apple TV, with a new version of the iPhone that the Chinese can no longer afford.

Steve Jobs is dead and there's no one with any new ideas at the company.

dc CB 18:49 GMT 08/03/2015
I don't think the markets would look any different today If the FED HAD raised rates last Wed.

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