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FOREX FORUM
29/07/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy con: 0.30% pre: 0.20%
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Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday
GVI Forex john 10:12 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile

I have included a chart to illustrate its current state of mind. By way of explanation There are two interest rate lines. The RED dashed line is the official Fed administered cost of overnight funds (Fed Funds). It does not change frequently. The other RED line is the free market cost of funds for two years. The market two year rate amounts to a forecast for the official administered rate for the next two years.

Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday


EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 09:54 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR narrowly higher, but up sharply vs. the NZD. Spot to 20-day averages remain negative.




Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 09:51 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
This is a good summary of the current focus

* New Zealand dollar slips after Fonterra cuts payout forecast

* Dollar index holds near six-month peak, euro eight-month trough



* Fed, U.S. GDP & payrolls key tests for markets this week * Euro zone inflation and China PMI also in focus

FOREX-Kiwi dips on dairy worries, dollar holding strong


GVI Forex Blog 09:49 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
German 10-year Bund yield hit a record low below 1.12% in the session. Dealers noted that safe-haven flows and month-end extension s contributed to price action. Fresh jitters emerged over Portuguese entity Banco Espirito Santo. EU ministers meet to discuss the next phase of Russian sanctions

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Safe-haven plays and month-end extension help push German 10-year Bund yield to record low level


Is anyone trading?
London Chris 09:17 GMT 07/29/2014
My question is whether anyone is trading or are we all waiting for this event week to start" Raise your hand if you traded today.

AceTrader Jul 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:54 GMT 07/29/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

29 Jul 2014 05:35GMT

USD/JPY - .... The pair flirts with 102.00 level ahead of European open after penetrating Fri's 2-week high of 101.94 as intra-day gain in the Nikkei to a fresh 6-month peak of 15632 triggered broad-based selling of yen. Present dlr's across-the-board strength vs G7 currencies also provides further sup to the dlr to head higher.

At present, offers at 101.95/05 are being absorbed, some stops are touted above there, however, more selling interest is noted at 102.25/35 which is likely to cap intra-day gain. For now, buying dlr on dips is still favoured n bids have been raised to 101.85/75 with stops below 101.60.

Risk-Off Trade as The Markets set up for the Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
GVI Forex Blog 08:51 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Conference Board Survey

Today, the top item is the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey. Yesterday, the U.S. flash Markit Service PMI estimate came in virtually flat relative to the June reading.It remained at a high level.

Risk-Off Trade as The Markets set up for the Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday


Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 08:41 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile

Europe markets are in a "risk-off" posture early Tuesday as a slew of high impact data due in the second half of this week. German 10-yr bund yields have made new record lows.  The EURUSD is steady at 1.3436.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower and remain well below recent levels. Yields on the European periphery are down. EZ 10-yr 1.13%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.56%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.48%,  -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly lower. U.S. share futures are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



NZD
UK Rob 08:40 GMT 07/29/2014
NZD is the loser today with tight ranges for the others. Get ready for movement starting tomorrow.


RBA may be forced to cut rate further: Goldman Sachs Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark
Syd 05:27 GMT 07/29/2014
The Reserve Bank may be forced to cut the official cash rate before the end of the year to beat back of a wall of foreign money that has driven the Australian dollar higher, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s bond expert Phil Moffitt.
Moffitt, a 30 year veteran of the bond market and one of Goldman’s most senior Australian partners was speaking at the sidelines of the $935 billion asset managers’ client conference in Sydney.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management has a short position in US bonds on an expectation that a US rate rise is coming sooner than the market is expecting.


GVI Forex Blog 05:24 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
rate since June 1992) V 1.09E; Labor Force Participation Rate m/m: 59.9% v 59.9% prior - (JP) JAPAN JUN RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.4% V 0.8%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: -0.6% V -0.5%E (3rd consecutive decline) - (JP

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan unemployment rate rises despite multiyear high in job availability - Source TradeTheNews.com


AceTrader Jul 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:50 GMT 07/29/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

29 Jul 2014 01:33GMT

Statement from BoJ's broad member Koji Ishida, quote:
'Japan's economy continues to recover moderately;
exports continue to move sideways, lacking momentum;
structural factors, such as shift of Japan firms' production overseas, may be partly behind soft exports;
capex expected to increase moderately as a trend;
next month's Q2 GDP data likely to show negative growth but economy's positive momentum seen intact;
effect of April sales tax hike likely to subside gradually;
labour market conditions likely hold key to whether household spending will remain firm;
want to scrutinise whether companies increasingly translate costs to consumers through higher prices;
environment surrounding exports to gradually improve as global growth pick up, tough uncertainty remains;
QQE exerting intended effects on markets, Japan's 10-year JGB yield remains at very low levels;
inappropriate to judge if BoJ's target by looking at core CPI alone, must take into account other data too to guage overall price trend.'


Data to be released on Tuesday:

Japan unemployment rate, retail sales, Australia HIA home sales, Germany import prices, U.S. Redbook retail sales and consumer confidence.

Weekly Trading Planner
nw kw 02:33 GMT 07/29/2014
S&P Tuesday reaffirms Australia's AAA sovereign rating and maintains a stable outlook. But it has concerns about external debt. The banking system, in particular, has a lot of external debt and relies heavily on the continued backing of foreign investors, S&P says. "We could lower the ratings if external imbalances were to grow significantly more than we currently expect--either because the terms of trade deteriorate quickly and markedly or the banking sector's cost of external funding increases sharply," it says. (james.glynn@wsj.com)

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
NY JM 01:15 GMT 07/29/2014  - My Profile
Looks like one more day biding time until a barrage of key events for the rest of the week.

Market will stay bearish as long as below 1.3450-55

Japan
Mtl JP 23:53 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Japan's unemployment rate rises to 3.7% vs. 3.5%
Japan June household spending falls 3% vs. year earlier
yen zzzs

Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 23:44 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
How riski to trust / believe such characters as Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken ?
"In the battlefield, Ukrainians are doing very well," Blinken said. "That's why we think Russia is doubling down."

eurusd
Tallinn viies 23:07 GMT 07/28/2014
they have been deeply involved from the beginning. now after they start to loose they need to use more tanks and heavy stuff.

eurusd
GVI Forex john 22:36 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
check out the map below.

Perhaps this explains why Rusian troops have been getting more involved?

eurusd
Tallinn viies 21:57 GMT 07/28/2014
Ukrainian forces are taking back their own land from russians. seems max 3 months and all territory under control of Ukrainian forces. Putin will need to do something (bigger war, escalating situation, real sactions on oil, gas,etc) not to loose face in Russia if this map is true and:

http://mediarnbo.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/28-07-eng.jpg

this also mean volatility will return to markets. do not bet heavily during slow summer markets. Im expecting eurusd to move 1000 points from yearly extremes during last 5 months of the year.
during the autumn things may happen...

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 21:23 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile

TUESDAY
US CB Consumer Conf
TRY TRY 5-yr
WEDNESDAY
US ADP Jobs
US GDP 2Q14prelim
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRB Fed Rates
THURSDAY
DE Unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
CA GDP mm
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

AUD and NZD
GVI Forex Blog 20:14 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Markets were fairly stable amid little news flow. Awaiting the key global events which are in the latter part of the week, equities ranged sideways (S&P500 unchanged as we write). The US dollar is a tad lower, while US interest rates are a tad higher.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts


Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:31 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 19:24 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
really ? hope they do not feel like dunces today

Only 3 Days Left
Dillon AL 19:19 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Commercials

Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 19:12 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
in ref to "A drop in the price of gold to a four-month low under $1,250 an ounce in early June prompted some central banks to boost their positions in the precious metal which is used to hedge against currency and credit risks." in the below linked piece, I wonder... who.. was ... the seller(s) of Gold under $1250?

Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
according to Reuters Russia, Turkey raise gold holdings for 3rd straight month - IMF data

the World Gold Council says Ukraine has 40.1 tons which make up 9.0% of reserves.
-
Historically, tsars and kings - like french king Charles VII - and such learned that, eventually, Gold - and not paper script - is what holds an army together, one that is willing to fight.

Incidentally, had it not been for Louis VII's whore Agnès Sorel who made her attractive assets available - for a price naturally - to monied "noblemen" and thus helped raise funds with which Louis motivated his about to give up army battling the British, France would have likely today be speaking English.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 18:34 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.493% 2.50% behaving like a magnet.

Cautious Trade. Mixed U.S. Data. Markets setting up for Fed Decision on Wednesday
GVI Forex Blog 18:28 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Industrial Output, US- Conference Board Survey

The U.S. flash Markit Service PMI estimate came in virtually flat relative to the June readig.It remained at a high level.

Cautious Trade. Mixed U.S. Data. Markets setting up for Fed Decision on Wednesday


Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 18:14 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
KIEV (Reuters) - ..."Ukraine depends on international lenders to keep its economy going. It is also fighting a pro-Russian rebellion in the east, which is putting additional strain on state coffers, and says it only has resources to finance its troops until the end of July."...

as July has 31 days

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 18:03 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
2-yr 0.544%
bid to cover 3.22 vs. 3.23

0.544% suggests the markets are not expecting much from the Fed soon?

2y auction
dc CB 17:51 GMT 07/28/2014
0.544%
bid to cover 3.220%
Directs 14.35%
Indirects 27%
Primary Dealers 58.7%

5's tomorrorw
7's Wed
(all moved up one day for FMOC)

USD/JPY
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:43 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Global Twilight Zone = makes no sense

USD/JPY
Mtl JP 17:38 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
how can the spaniard yield same as the american 10-yr ?

USD/JPY
Livingston nh 16:56 GMT 07/28/2014
jp - 2.48 not 2.58 - maybe prescient

USD/JPY
Mtl JP 16:54 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Livingston nh do you spot a typo in john 15:46's matrix ?

June 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
dc CB 16:33 GMT 07/28/2014


this ETF holds homebuilders suppliers and also "retail big box" retail home improvement stores Home Depot and Lowes

USD/JPY
Livingston nh 16:14 GMT 07/28/2014
This pair may be a good place to look for a trading change - there is an SPX gap below 1960 from a wk ago Friday that if filled would usually pressure yen back towards 101.5
- but all the US data might pressure stox (1938) and FI (higher yield) -- if yen moves above 102.25 it would mark the change in correlation from S&P to 10 yr yields????

GVI Forex Blog 15:49 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
July 28, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 29. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, US- Conference Board Survey

GVI Forex Data Outlook for June 29, 2014


Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:46 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile

Europe markets are maintaining their cautious posture as we move into an unusually heavy schedule of major data releases. The EURUSD is currently a touch from Friday.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower and remain well below levels from early last week .Yields on the European periphery are down. EZ 10-yr 1.15%, -3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.57%  -3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend..
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.58%,  -3bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Store that sells everything for one Dollar
dc CB 15:38 GMT 07/28/2014
buys a store that sells everything for more than one Dollar...
Dollar Tree to Buy Family Dollar for $8.5 Billion
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/28/dollar-tree-to-buy-family-dollar-for-8-5-billion/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

Meanwhile...Zillow, which offer $2bil for Truila last week
A company with 0 profit buy another company with 0 profit.
Zillow to Acquire Trulia for $3.5 Billion
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/28/zillow-to-buy-trulia-for-3-5-billion/?ref=business

Only in the US Stox market.

CFTC Charges Lloyds Banking Group and Lloyds Bank with Manipulation
Livingston nh 15:38 GMT 07/28/2014
But the winner in the judicial/regulatory extortion lottery is:: (drum roll) - Russia
"Former leading shareholders of the Yukos oil company have been awarded $50bn in damages against Russia, by far the biggest compensation award ever made in an arbitration case.

The panel in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that Russia had destroyed the oil company once headed by jailed oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky and expropriated its assets, for political reasons." (Fin Times)

Haha - the US regulatory folks are going after its corporate targets individually (not smart enough to band together - "but not our money") -- meanwhile, do you think US will assist in getting Russia to pay up?? probably not


Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 15:33 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Moscow AB, that post of that link of yours is un-couth .
(what is couth)

global-view offers all that. And more.

CFTC Charges Lloyds Banking Group and Lloyds Bank with Manipulation
dc CB 15:11 GMT 07/28/2014
The Order requires Lloyds Banking Group and Lloyds Bank to pay a $105 million civil monetary penalty, cease and desist from their violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, and to adhere to specific undertakings to ensure the integrity of LIBOR submissions in the future.

“By today’s action, Lloyds is being held accountable for serious misconduct,” said Aitan Goelman, CFTC Director of Enforcement. “The CFTC remains committed to taking all actions necessary to ensure the integrity of the markets we oversee.”

In a related action, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with Lloyds Banking Group, deferring criminal wire fraud charges in exchange for Lloyds Banking Group continuing to cooperate and agreeing to an $86 million penalty

Attempted Manipulation, and False Reporting of LIBOR


Source TradeTheNews.com
Moscow AB 15:09 GMT 07/28/2014
Buy
Entry: 15 Target: Stop: 17

The most important in Trading is information.To stay constantly tuned will help to achieve the maximum. For monitoring the situation I quite often check Forex situation here . It helps a lot.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:07 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Participants appear to be positioning themselves conservatively ahead of the first reading of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. Equity indices did well in Asia trading and were pretty flat in Europe ahead of the US open, but have tracked the decline in US stocks. The yield on the 10-year UST has come in and is not too far above its May low of 2.438%

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Markets Positioning Ahead of Wednesday's Q2 GDP Reading


June 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
dc CB 15:03 GMT 07/28/2014
"Housing (building, repairs, etc.) is a major employer in the U.S. and a major wealth builder."

That's mainly because NOTHING is Made in the USA, and hasn't been for years.
If you used that line 50 years ago you would be dead wrong.

Housing is a Major Debt Builder for most.

June 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
Mtl JP 14:59 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
building, repairs, etc. may be major employer in the U.S. but is not a major wealth builder. Last few years have shown that aspiring to house ownership is not for last 25% segment of the population., and in fact can be so dangerous as to nearly bring about a collapse of the financial and banking world.

IF "Housing is a tax-advantaged investment" were as good as alleged, it would not need tax-advantaged meddling.

Maybe more folks like Sara “The world has changed,” Stevens will fix the mis-perception.

June 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Housing (building, repairs, etc.) is a major employer in the U.S. and a major wealth builder. Housing is a tax-advantaged investment that is not going away, but it might take a long time to recover. This is my OBJECTIVE view.


Next Page



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