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FOREX FORUM
21/08/14 1:35 B JP fl Mfg PMI con: 51.5 pre: 50.5
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Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
GVI Forex john 21:43 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile


August 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, DE, FR, US flash PMIs GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes
  • Far East: JP- flash PMI, CN- HSBC flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ, DE, FR, flash PMIs GB- Retail Sales
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless,flash MFG PMI, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes Sales, Natural Gas



Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

THURSDAY
1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ  MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Retail Sales
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 19:57 GMT 08/20/2014
Call it the Mary Barra effect. Ask Why she became the 1st Female CEO....oooopppppps all those ignition switch deaths and recalls....

Janet Yellen....ask why she is the 1st Female Chair.....oooooppppp alll those...?????????

But "she" din't Know

toasted Gammy?

Fed Dissenters Increasingly Vocal About Inflation Fears


Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:34 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 19:02 GMT 08/20/2014
nh

so for the next week, take a break from da news, CNBC, and staring at the chart screen. (Cramer's there in one of those episodes)

A cynic's holiday? Perfect immersion antidote to all that beheading type stuff. DOH JustinTime...

552 episodes – plus 2007's "The Simpsons Movie" – airing 24 hours a day through Sept. 1.

'The Simpsons' marathon on FXX


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:47 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
2015 Fed Funds futures !00% odds for one 25 bp rate hike by then and 60% adds on a second +25bp.

just a licence fee
Mtl JP 18:45 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Bank of America Reaches $17 Billion Settlement - wsj

Bank of America is expected to pay nearly $17 billion to settle U.S. Department of Justice accusations it packaged shoddy mortgages into securities and sold them to investors in the run-up to the financial crisis, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. 3 min ago

Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up
GVI Forex Blog 18:41 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP, CN, EZ, DE, FR, US, flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes

Thursday sees a slew of flash PMI reports, U.K. Retail Sales and several U.S. items. Fed policy minutes released in the early afternoon in NYC had a more hawkish tone than expected the 2-yr note increased to 0.46% +2bps vs. beforehand. This was USD constructive. Watch upcoming U.S. data closely.

Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Livingston nh 18:39 GMT 08/20/2014
cb -hea ha hheea ( choking )

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 18:31 GMT 08/20/2014


I'm goin' to Jackson, I'm gonna mess around
Yeah, I'm goin' to Jackson
Look out Jackson town)

wmBanzai7

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 18:25 GMT 08/20/2014
The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath unleashed an instantaneous reaction to today's FOMC minutes and the message is clear - markets are much less uncertain than the Fed about the timing (sooner rather than later) of the first rate-hike

Via The Wall Street Journal,

Federal Reserve officials debated at their July meeting whether to move sooner than expected to start raising interest rates in light of an improving job market and rising inflation, but decided they needed more evidence before concluding that was the right approach.

Ben's Earbud Speaks


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Livingston nh 18:23 GMT 08/20/2014
And now we direct your attention to the Center Ring at Jackson (I'm goin' to Jackson, I'm gonna mess around
Yeah, I'm goin' to Jackson
Look out Jackson town) where Fed Chair Yellen speaks - BUT will she confirm the Minutes or defend her True Believer position -- Bet she will defend

Faction politics at the Fed??

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:22 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.441% +4.1bp.

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 18:20 GMT 08/20/2014


the fiver's taking it on the chin worse than the 10 and 30

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
GVI Forex john 18:19 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
So Fed and BOE policy minutes both were more hawkish than expected today. They both are drinking the same kool-aide

GBP/USD bounce
USA ZEUS 18:15 GMT 08/20/2014
Nice long entry at 1.6590 for a bounce higher.

Day's Trades
tokyo ginko 18:13 GMT 08/20/2014
still alive and worth the wait!

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Mtl JP 18:13 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
maybe hawkish
but no timeframe
-
Bottom Line
players still slaves to the cb babel

Official rates vs. 2yr yields
GVI Forex john 18:10 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
2-yr rate 0.46% vs. 0.44% before the release. Usually USD bullish.


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
GVI Forex john 18:05 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Most want to reduce asset reinvestment AFTER first rate hike


On balance this sounds more hawkish to me than expected.

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
GVI Forex john 18:02 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Labor progress faster than expected
disagreement on amount of slack in economy
some feel unemployment rate understates slack


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

EUR/JPY
Ternopil SMV 17:58 GMT 08/20/2014
Amman wfakhoury, what is your view for eur/jpy. Do you have any confirmed level for it?

GBPUSD 16679 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 17:55 GMT 08/20/2014
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed will be reached return level 16636
any decline below it will return to it.



The only one in the world who confirms the next level



FOMC Minutes
Livingston nh 17:46 GMT 08/20/2014
Ahead of the Fed stox are singing "who's afraid of the big bad wolf" -- the key to Minutes is the massage not the message (see the Transcripts) // it's not a coincidence that KC Fed Jackson Hole topic is LABOR for Yellen's first as Fed Chair

Obama
dc CB 17:42 GMT 08/20/2014


Gammy is in charge.

We told you folks to BTFD and even threatened WWIII and a totally blown up MidEast just to give you folks another chance to buy the dip. So folks, I am working really hard to give you folks in the middle class a chance to stay in the middle class. If you folks don't take the chance it's not my fault.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Zeke Miller ✔ @ZekeJMiller
Follow

Pool: after statement Obama headed to the Vineyard Golf Club
1:26 PM - 20 Aug 2014

Obama
Livingston nh 17:30 GMT 08/20/2014
John - Well that is not quite as terrifying as hourly passes by B-52 formations dropping 60 tons on the malefactors -- why bother ?? - we return to our regularly scheduled soap opera

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Livingston nh 17:20 GMT 08/20/2014
JP - the daily 89 ema was the source of my 1.6450 comment - altho it held again in late Spring at higher levels it has now been well and truly broken // the only daily avg near 1.6450 is the 233 ema which is ~ 1.65 which corresponds to the WKLY 55 ema // 1.6450 is now of no value as a support level (1.63 might be)

Obama
GVI Forex 17:13 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Obama expressed his outrage at the murder of an American photo journalist by ISIS. He did not take any questions. No market implications.

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Mtl JP 17:04 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile


nh 16:47 sneaking closer to target

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:54 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
I posted this last night on GVI Forex

UK Conspiracy Theory
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:25 GMT 08/20/2014 - My Profile
UK PRESS: The Times reports that BOE Governor Mark Carney's political neutrality will come into question when he faces the UK treasury select committee next month. Lawmakers have raised accusations Carney and George Osborne have entered into a "secret pact" to keep interest rates on hold until the next election. The Bank and the Treasury have denied any such deal, the report says. However, insiders question why the accusations surfaced this week after the release of benign inflation data, supporting the view that rates should not be raised from their current 0.5% level, the report adds.

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Livingston nh 16:47 GMT 08/20/2014
Looking thru BoE minutes - strange that Carney would offer a change to Mansion House comment right after the meeting when he knew of the dissents - this fella seems too political for his own good // BUT on the bright side it reinforces my opinion that the window for a rate hike is narrow before the election, especially if the autumn data weakens


Obama
GVI Forex 16:43 GMT 08/20/2014
Set to make an announcement in a few minutes. No details.

EUR/JPY
Belgrade Knez 16:41 GMT 08/20/2014

Amman wfakhoury

EUR/JPY never went to your tgt of 136.50 .... are you still waiting for that tgt to be hit, or different view now, please?


Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 16:04 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
As I indicated a couple of weeks ago, the risk in EURUSD remains to the downside. What I said at that time is that the EURUSD seemed to be declining in one cent increments, starting around the 1.3600 level. This move has been unusually slow and has been very difficult for us accustomed to instant gratification, or whatever the opposite is!

As long as the U.S. and the EZ remain on divergent monetary policy tracks, the EURUSD should continue to work lower. The danger will become when the markets start to take the EURUSD downtrend for granted and when this move starts to pick up speed and momentum.

Below 1.3000 looks inevitable to me, as I said before. I don't know if 1.2000 is still too much for this move. We will have to see how relative economic trends evolve. This move is being solidified by its slow pace.

Any thoughts?

EUR/USD This is the top
Mtl JP 15:53 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
London Chris 14:46 - maybe on a six-month vacation. 2x / yr

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
European markets remain in  a mixed RISK-ON posture late on Wednesday. The key impetus for trade has been Bank of England policy minutes which saw two members vote for an immediate policy tightening. The EURUSD is testing just below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% -1 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower. ECB president Draghi speaks late Friday from Jackson Hole.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.42%  +2bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, +2bp. A major focus is Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is now 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly weaker. U.S. shares are up modestly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:18 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
US futures were trading lower after two days of solid gains before the open, depressed in part by European equity weakness. Markets await the minutes of the July FOMC meeting for some clarity on exit positioning

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: US Equities in Neutral After Two Days of Gains


EUR/USD This is the top
London Chris 14:46 GMT 08/20/2014
Hey how about the magic 1.2777!!!!

Where are the Bali bulls? Are you still accumulating longs?

US EIA Weekly Inventories
GVI Forex john 14:38 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -4.470 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -1.400 prev.
Gasoline: +0.590 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.200 prev.
Distillates: -0.960 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -2.400 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.40% vs. 93.10% exp vs. 91.60% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

EUR/USD This is the top
USA ZEUS 14:27 GMT 08/20/2014


Nice to see the natural pivot 1.3277 print today. Chart of the year for the call of the year attached and updated. Cheers!

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Livingston nh 13:01 GMT 08/20/2014
Two things on my morning list - first, the EU peripheral yields decline - this seems strange on a couple of counts

Second, USD/JPY finally got back to 103.25, closing level of last day it traded above 104 - so resistance to 104 lvl should be minor -- a close back above 104 might see another leg higher (or a dangerous double top)

Official rates vs. 2yr yields
GVI Forex john 12:59 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Two-year yields mostly higher after the surprising UK rate vote disclosed in the BOE Minutes earlier today. U.S. and Aussie rates are up as well. Individual currencies tend to be strongly influenced by their 2-yr rate.





Why Technical Analysis Works
SaaR KaL 12:55 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
chi squared Dist... a natural dist of the Variance...heheh
By prof
JM...no offence...but Gauss related to you?

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 12:52 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
OK JM
Define safe "IN FX"?
and why it is sooooooooo sepcial?
LOL...that is such a funny term...no offence bro

Why Technical Analysis Works
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:43 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

Technical analysis works but not for the reasons you may imagine. See why in my latest article.

Why Technical Analysis Works


Day's Trades
NY JM 12:39 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
The word "safe" does not exist in the forex trading dictionary

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 12:18 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
your safe trades are USDCAD Longs for a couple for week


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