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FOREX FORUM
16/04/14 8:30 GB ILO Unemploy con: 7.10% pre: 7.20%
16/04/14 8:30 GB Avg Earn 3myy con: 1.80% pre: 1.40%
16/04/14 8:30 GB Claimant Count k Feb con: -30 pre: -34.6
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EUR
PAR 07:08 GMT 04/16/2014
Well supported at 1.3800 and with potential to rise above 1.4000 on good economic date from Europe and disappointing macro figures from the USA .

Yellen speech will be another cheerleading for the Us stock markets which will go into the Easter Weekend on a high note boosted by more rate amphetamines .

China GDP: A Massaging of the Figures?
KL KL 06:11 GMT 04/16/2014
Syd,

Where have you been hiding.....? Hope all is well nicely retired and watching the waves roll by... ;-))

What is this Barry O'Farrell resigning over $3000 Wine ... If it was like Labor Craig Thompson....this is non issue...there lies the difference between the ideology of these two party....

also the Property prices is CRAZY...Mega Crazy in Sydney.... Now if we have bought in GFC...we would have more than double it by now......hind sight 20/20......LOL

Now we wait for the POP....goes the weasel in Aussie property in major cities....been an incredible run....like parabolic to me...like in Singapore, Malaysia and so many Asean cities....... anyway g'day to you!!

Your Best Trade Today
bali sja 05:06 GMT 04/16/2014
as I said before there is no stopping them buy stocks, it is all they care about
Dow 17k is a done deal soon and usd will go to toilet with it perhaps...

GVI Forex Blog 05:04 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
- (CN) CHINA Q1 REAL GDP Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.3%E; YTD: 7.4% V 7.3%E >- (CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 8.8% V 9.0%E - (CN) CHINA MAR YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 17.6% V 18.0%E -

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China Q1 GDP slowed less than expected; Retail sales beat makes up for Industrial Production miss - Source TradeTheNews.com


China GDP: A Massaging of the Figures?
Syd 04:18 GMT 04/16/2014
China’s GDP growth fell in the first quarter to its slowest pace since September of 2012, slipping to 7.4% on-year growth from 7.7% the in the fourth quarter. The increase was slightly higher than economists’ expectations of a 7.3% gain.

Authorities released other data that suggested continuing weakness, but not at a quickening pace. Industrial production grew 8.8% on year in March below expectations of 9% but up from an average 8.6% expansion in January and February, combined to limit distortions from the Lunar New Year holidays. Retail sales were 12.2% higher on-year in March, up from 11.8% growth in January and February.

Fixed-asset investment, meanwhile, slipped to 17.6% on year in the first quarter from 17.9% growth in the first two months.

Some economists saw a massaging of the GDP figures. Others said the data showed a slight recovery in March. (Comments edited slightly for style):


GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
The better than expected Chinese GDP (7.4% vs 7.7% on a Quarterly basis)

Morning Briefing : 16-Apr-2014 -0337 GMT


China growth slows but beats expectations
Syd 03:26 GMT 04/16/2014
China’s expansion slowed to the weakest pace in six quarters, testing leaders’ commitment to keep reining in a credit boom and pollution as risks mount of missing a 7.5 per cent annual growth target.

Gross domestic product rose 7.4 per cent in the January -to- March period from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing, compared with the 7.3 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Industrial production increased 8.8 per cent in March, less than projected, while first-quarter fixed-asset investment trailed estimates.


An extended slowdown would put pressure on Premier Li Keqiang to add stimulus or ease up on efforts to curb financial risks and property-price gains after this month outlining spending and tax relief to support growth. A weaker Chinese economy would limit a pickup in global expansion forecast by the International Monetary Fund and restrain demand for commodities including copper and iron ore.


AceTrader Apr 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GPB/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:52 GMT 04/16/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GPB/USD

16 Apr 2014 02:21GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6721.. We mentioned in y'day's update short-term specs sold the pound in Asia in anticipation of a soft U.K. inflation number, European traders did the same when they entered the market n when CPI came out at a 4-year low of 1.6% as per market consensus, cable staged a ferocious rebound fm 1.6657 (Reuters) to as high as 1.6731 on broad-based short-covering/profit-taking (depending where you had ended there trade !), pric later ratcheted higher to session high of 1.6749 b4 retreating.

The intra-day sideways move despite y'day's strg rebound suggests Asian players are respecting the Tue's high print as offers were reported at 1.6745/55 with stops abv there, however, more selling interest is noted at 1.6780/90. On the downside, some bids are reported at 1.6710-00 n more below, so range trading is expected ahead of another batch of U.K. jobs data.

Pay attention to U.K. jobless claims, employment change & the unemployment rate at 08:30GMT, the employment change data is probably the more important figure to watch, street forecast is looking for an increase of 90k vs previous reading of 105k, if the increase falls short of expectation, then expect (pun intended) another round of sterling bashing to come in.

Your Best Trade Today
dc CB 02:48 GMT 04/16/2014


you can see where they want to take the SnP. If it weren't for the Ukraine mess this would have been straight up all day.

$yen
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:32 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
JAPAN'S NIKKEI 225 INDEX ENDS MORNING UP 2.26% AT 14313.73

$yen
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:31 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
102.33. = 50 day mva
102.50. = 20 day mva

$yen
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:22 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Nikkei up => USDJPY up

Now watch 102 as it sets the tone from here

There is always a risk the Mkt. will catch with fundamentals.
HK RF@ 02:19 GMT 04/16/2014


Especially after a long weekend.

The most (if) to be affected is the Euro.

I don't see much optimism at the moment, so better close now and go for a longer weekend.

AceTrader April 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:01 GMT 04/16/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

16 Apr 2014 01:28GMT
USD/JPY - 102.04 Japan FinMin Aso says 'can't Ok crop. tax cut without alternative revenue.'
Japan FinMin Aso says 'pull back from sales tax hike not as big as expected; downturn in consumption from pent-up demand ahead of sales tax hike smaller than expected from now.'
Fed's Kocherlakota says 'wage growth has been slow because of low demand; makes goods, services seem more expensive; calls to "audit the Fed" are really calls for politicians to have more say on monetary policy; I am an active "learner" on Bitcoin, very interesting to monitor and keep track of; interested in Bitcoin as a payment system, not as a currency that competes with dollar; it is not clear whether raising the minimum wage adds to, or reduces, unemployment.'
Fed's Kocherlakota says 'we need to do a better job of letting people know "the Fed has economy's back; we can afford to stay accommodative as the recovery proceeds; I expect interest rates to rise gradually as recovery continue; If we see inflation rise rapidly, will raises rates rapidly in response; I am fully committed to doing whatever it takes to keep inflation, because of tools at Feds' disposal; a lot of unemployment is cyclical, and can be affected by monetary policy.'

00:31GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9337 - Australia Mar Westpac leading index rose to 0.0% from -0.1% in Feb.
BoJ's Kuroday says 'expects wider range of prices in Japan to rise ahead.'
'BoJ's QE steadily showing effect on Japan economy; Japan making steady progress toward BoJ's 2% price target; Japan's economy to weaken Q2 on effect of sales tax hike but resume growth above a potential from around summer; Tankan showed board range of Japan firms seen cautious of economic outlook but think firms' positive stance on business maintained.'

$yen
syd sf 00:42 GMT 04/16/2014
I just bght the short back manually at 04 - its s/l is 15

after seeing Gold yesterday - not standing in front of any freight trains today.

Everyone with his own interests.
HK RF@ 00:38 GMT 04/16/2014


It seems that the US citizenry find it more interesting to read about yesterday Blood Moon eclipse than the Ukraine crisis.

Probably they believe it's a sign from the heavens LOL.

$yen
nw kw 00:25 GMT 04/16/2014
NZD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (1Q)
High
1.5% 1.7% 1.6%

$yen
Mtl JP 00:15 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
early Asia on some happy pill drugs

Love the Headline
Mtl JP 00:13 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Jack Lew & company: "China not a ‘manipulator’ as U.S. notes yuan weakness" , only squealing that the decline in the yuan was "unprecedented" and calling on Beijing to disclose its intervention in currency markets more regularly ... .. ... saying the weakening of the yuan would "raise particularly serious concerns" if it signals a retreat from Beijing's public policy of scaling back intervention to let market forces play a bigger role...

$yen
nw kw 23:40 GMT 04/15/2014
The latest month of TIC data showed China’s holdings of Treasurys decreased by $2.7 billion in February, while Japanese holdings increased by $9.1 billion. Altogether, foreign official and private accounts bought $92.5 billion in Treasurys in February, the most in nearly two-and-a-half years. Some strategists suggested the large increase stems from a flight to quality securities as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia ramped up

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 22:00 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile


April 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, April 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI), Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision
  • Far East: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP.
  • Europe: GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI).
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Weekly Crude, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision.



Your Best Trade Today
Cambridge Joe 21:17 GMT 04/15/2014
SnP HOD in place IMO. 19.3 ?

Your Best Trade Today
Cambridge Joe 21:16 GMT 04/15/2014
SnP HOD in place IMO. 19.3 ?

Your Best Trade Today
Cambridge Joe 21:03 GMT 04/15/2014
USDX softer thru Asia into London. IMO. GL

$yen
syd sf 21:03 GMT 04/15/2014
the best price you could have bought audyen yesterday in asia was around 95.60 and its moved back to test ard 95.50 after dropping overnight.

so I have a hard time thinking it's going to rally much today .. once Asia comes in past 50-65 .. which would be a good guide as to bullish vs bearish going forward.

once again my bot is selling out what it bought lower in $yen and its gone short again.

Your Best Trade Today
nw kw 20:55 GMT 04/15/2014
NZD Consumer Prices Index long n/jpy

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 20:41 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
Rosengren:
- A 5.2% unemployment rate would be near full employment
- Recent data consistent with a slowly improving economy, but concerns that scars from the recession that have changed consumer and business spending habits
- Fed's Forward Guidance Should Be Linked to Employment, Inflation Data -- WSJ Blog
- Urges Data-Linked Policy Guidance



Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:22 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands



Your Best Trade Today
Paris ib 19:19 GMT 04/15/2014
nh - nice summary. You would think that the chinless deviants in Europe might know that. They act as if they don't. Hard to trade this one as there are so many weirdos involved and so many hidden agendas. Not least of which is Soros's mega put on the U.S. stock market. Not everyone wants this to quietly die as an issue.

"Risk-Off" trade due to Ukraine Trumps Economic Data Tuesday. Busy Wednesday
GVI Forex Blog 19:14 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, GB- Jobs, EZ- Final HICP (CPI), Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production Capacity Utilization, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada

About mid-morning Tuesday in N.Y. the markets started to react negatively to mounting tensions in Ukraine by moving into a "risk-off" posture. This move was exacerbated by the upcoming holiday period starting at the end of this week.

"Risk-Off" trade due to Ukraine Trumps Economic Data Tuesday. Busy Wednesday


Your Best Trade Today
Livingston nh 18:56 GMT 04/15/2014
fwiw -
"The takeaway is this: the Ukraine bloc owes the EU banks anywhere from $540 to $760 billion, depending on how you measure it. And the EU banks and large parts of its economy as a whole financed this loan by essentially borrowing all of it from Russia. If the West tried to clamp down on or seize Russian official assets or private flight capital, or if it otherwise took actions that destabilized the ability of these countries to service their debts, the losers would be in Kiev, Vienna, Milan, and Frankfurt—and not in Moscow."
LINK

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 18:44 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
john J Lew is got to be smiling: 30-year bond yields 3.46%
This puppy is going to cause some pain to holders in not too distant future. Certainly massive pain over the next 29 years.

U.S. Discount Rate Minutes
GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
No change. Three banks still request rate hike- Source TTN


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex john 17:59 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
A major data release Wednesday will be final March CPI data. The flash HICP was +0.50% y/y. The ECB is one of the few central banks that targets the all-items CPI. Typically, the final HICP reading does not change much from the flash estimate.

It is in response to this report that pressure on the ECB to ease has been mounting.

Love the Headline
Mtl JP 17:58 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
ya . acceptance is liberating (not to be confused with approval)
indignation burns you; makes u miserable

Love the Headline
Paris ib 17:56 GMT 04/15/2014
Easier? Really?

Love the Headline
Mtl JP 17:53 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
ib 17:13 when u realize and accept that politics, for the big majority, is a fashion runway for the scumbags of humanity things will be easier on you

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 17:45 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
actually sofar it is the other way around:
usdyen bouncing off 101.50 => S&P follows

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:34 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
So mark down 101.50 and 2.60% (10-year) as one correlation point. Stocks bouncing off lows => USDJPY follows

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:28 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
JP, I know how to get you worked up.

Suffice it to say that 101.50 is a sloppy zone but one where there will be BOD in the lower portion unless 101.50 cracks. Content with hit and run trading this week.

Correlation algos driving USDJPY

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 17:24 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
there is very little more annoying that answering a Q with a Q
-
c Mtl JP 15:36

Your Best Trade Today
eu pat 17:24 GMT 04/15/2014
mess))... controled...holding short...tight sl 101,82.

Love the Headline
eu pat 17:20 GMT 04/15/2014
First, you need to look at the Ukrainian history. U.S. along with some EU countries, to promote nationalism to Ukraine. Russians will not tolerate fascists to historical territory. Certainly no one wants to international conflict .. but starts to shoot to the Russians, so it's more serious than you think. Or will divided Ukraine to the east and west and will continue the cold war (Russia, China, India) against the West, or the conflict spreads ..

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:20 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
Did you?

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 17:20 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
d'u buy 101.50 ?

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:18 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Held 101.50

Love the Headline
Paris ib 17:13 GMT 04/15/2014
Case in point. Not necessarily the most deviant. And we actually PAY these people. Hard to believe.

Catherine Ashton


Love the Headline
Paris ib 17:07 GMT 04/15/2014
JP begs the question really: is Carney a chinless deviant?

Love the Headline
Mtl JP 17:05 GMT 04/15/2014  - My Profile
marketwatch:
Carney: U.S. looking at ways to support Ukraine
White House sees no military solution to Ukraine
White House: Ukraine situation dangerous, volatile
-
DJ down by +/- 110 points, only -0.7%, S&P by about same %-age


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