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FOREX FORUM
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg con: -5 pre: -12
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate con: 6.70% pre: 6.70%
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AceTrader Aug 28: Daily Trading Ideals on Major EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:35 GMT 08/28/2014


DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3193

Update Time: 28 Aug 2014 00:36 GMT


Although euro's rally from yesterday's fresh near 1-year low at 1.3152 (Asia) to 1.3210 in New York signals mid-term downtrend from May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has made a temporary low there, reckon 1.3220/24 would limit upside and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.3120/30 after consolidation.
However, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.3105 today and risk a 'much-needed' minor correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3220/24 would shift risk to upside for stronger retracement towards 1.3261 but resistance at 1.3296 should remain intact.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
NY JM 02:02 GMT 08/28/2014  - My Profile
As John posted this earlier, it restored a 2-way risk to the EURUSD in a very thin market but gaps remain

Sources told Reuters on Wednesday that the ECB is unlikely to take new policy action next week unless inflation figures on Friday show the euro zone sinking significantly towards deflation.... RTRS

Trader Alert: Beware of Forex Bucket Shops
NY GTA 01:04 GMT 08/28/2014  - My Profile


I get asked a lot for suggestions about specific brokers and which broker to choose. Some brokers I never heard of and it got me to thinking about the different tiers of forex brokers. It also got me to thinking about the term forex “bucket shop.” This generally refers to a broker who “buckets” all or most of its trades and takes them on its own books without going to the market (it may pass through the trades of profitable traders only). In other words, it is betting on the statistics that most retail forex traders lose money and thus is willing to take the other side of most trades. The question is why should you care?

Trader Alert: Beware of Forex Bucket Shops

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 01:03 GMT 08/28/2014  - My Profile
* Euro pops up from a near one-year low against USD

* Market reassesses dovish ECB expectations for next week

* Aussie at 3-week highs ahead of capital spending data

FOREX-Harried euro gets reprieve ahead of inflation test


NZD
sd sf 23:14 GMT 08/27/2014
yesterday we were @28 at this time and spent all day heading up to 80

this morning we are @71 see what this does as it does seem to lead most others.

the average move we have been seeing is 40-50 pips.

loonie
sd sf 23:12 GMT 08/27/2014
Yeah - I switched off my CAD bots yesterday with the Hortons deal not wanting to stand in front of anything... it is a real wipe out in the CAD crosses in terms of price.

the other things I do have orders in are stuck - this could be a long day here in Asia... as expectations are changed.

Chart Points -- Trading Points
New York Trading Statistics 21:29 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data.. Basis previous session ranges...




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



Weekly Trading Planner
New York Calendar 21:20 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile

THURSDAY
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims  Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary  Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
FRIDAY
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP  ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP  Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format and over 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
New York Calendar 20:45 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile


August 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Unemployment, CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence, GB- CBI Distributive Trades
  • North America: CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales, Natural Gas, 7-yr



loonie
london red 20:21 GMT 08/27/2014
past fib and supp/res at 10860 last line of defence ahead of 200 day ma. if cleared we could get a full retrace to close at 200 day ma or higher and ive missed my ride. if can stay below 60 im hopeful of some more downside tomorrow to 10820 area, ahead of 10809 fib.

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Mtl JP 19:45 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
PAR 19:14 could be more than interesting
is that all u have atm ?

Chart Points - Free FX Database
New York Trading Statistics 19:35 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
PAR 19:32 GMT 08/27/2014
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-biggest-tax-scam-ever-20140827


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
PAR 19:14 GMT 08/27/2014
Imho some hedge funds which have been betting on higher rates are close to collapsing .

Something similar to MF Global when peripheral European rates went up .

We will know soon .

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 19:09 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.359% yields slipping into the close.

Chart Points -- Trading Points
New York Trading Statistics 19:07 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...




Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday
GVI Forex Blog 18:47 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Unemployment, CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobs, GDP, Pending Homes Sales

Thursday features German employment data, U.S. Weekly jobless, revised GDP, and Pending Homes Sales. A key focus of trade Wednesday was the upcoming ECB decision due in just over one week's time. Coming into the day, ECB President Draghi was expected to announce or at least hint at additional policy ease. Reuters carried a story over the session citing ECB sources as saying that no new ECB action is likely at this meeting. But then they indicated that the flash August EZ CPI report on Friday could be decisive.

Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday


French Unemployment
london red 18:46 GMT 08/27/2014
cad gdp on friday, some estimates well abv consensus, but strength is now well in price. next wednesday expect poloz to pour cold water on any good news. this guy would find a problem with holding the winning ticket of the worlds biggest lottery.

French Unemployment
Mtl JP 18:28 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile


PAR to put numbers on it
- 3.424 million people out of work
- an increase of +/-26,000 folk
- ninth consecutive rise in the monthly unemployment number
-----------------------
usdcad currently under 200 day 1.0889 and range breakout

French Unemployment
PAR 18:12 GMT 08/27/2014
French unemployment hits new record high in july .

morning obs
london red 17:56 GMT 08/27/2014
loonie pierces 38.2 fib at 10853, risk is now towards 1.0809 the 50% fib. at that point short term oversold. i will be looking at 1.08 calls at that level, expiry for end next week.
spot longs will start below 1.08 with stops under 10764 the 61.8%

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 17:39 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Correlation trade has been working off and on since my earlier comments.Nevertheless the two are stil inline with one another. My focus earlier was S&P 2000. Thats where we still are! Making for a very long day!

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
5-yr 1.646%
bid-to-cover
2.81 vs.2.81
so-so

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
PAR 16:55 GMT 08/27/2014
Tax inversion deals propelling S&P to new alltime highs .
If all US companies choose headquarters outside USA wouldnt that be fantastic for the markets ?

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 16:47 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
5-yr auction shortly last cash 1.632%.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: Classic Pivot Points
New York GTA 16:42 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile

At the end of trading each day (NY close at 16:00 local time), Global-View updates its FX database and based on that price data it computes the day’s pivot point for the next session. The Pivot point is the average of the day's high, low and close). Very simple! 

Using a classic pivot point trading system, the pivot point is the primary support/resistance for the next trading period...

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: Classic Pivot Points


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
PAR 16:24 GMT 08/27/2014
Yellen rolled put protection from s&p 1900 to s&p 2000.

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
nw kw 16:18 GMT 08/27/2014
Forex john thanks for keeping us up whith things that mater good job well ap ited $$$$$$$$$$$

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
nw kw 16:16 GMT 08/27/2014
Stock markets fall and bond yields rise after China enters bear market territory - as it happened

fast search// kids on the run

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
PAR 16:15 GMT 08/27/2014
Risk ? What risk ? Peace in Russia & Ukraine .

Party animals Yellen & Draghi going extreme on the latest gin tonic cocktails .

Lets party

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
nw kw 16:13 GMT 08/27/2014
whut about eur/chf ????????????will chf intervene so we get soft chf and how fast last time bigger trends ran monthly///////////////feed back and a trade plan interesting round 2 so wee must no some direction/trade on GB. tks for sharing

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 15:47 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Any Word on why gilt yields have fallen by 8bp today?

Morning
sd sf 15:46 GMT 08/27/2014
GBP

my system putting bids 56 58 59 target 1.6618/19

hard to be really confident as the crosses are going to get beaten about tomorrow due to some further eur/xxx adjustments.

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Trading Perspectives john 15:46 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
Europe markets are ending in a  RISK-OFF posture with bond yields falling heading into the ECB meeting in a week's.time. Before that flash August CPI data on Friday could be decisive. I find the continued ECB foot-dragging to be an ongoing disappointment.  EURUSD.is holding below the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen on a dovish ECB view. The 10-yr bund is 0.91%  -4bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.37%  -8bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.37%, -2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mixed to lower. U.S. shares are roughly steady..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:34 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
gold might act funny
into next day
Close today
1,302.7823 1,280.1299

I think that 1300 level is a sell level
Might drop fast into 1290 1250 28th USA close


Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:29 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
gbpchf close PI
1.5255 1.5151

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 15:23 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.371% unchanged from earlier.

ECB
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:21 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
JP, one characteristic of the EURUSD downtrend is that it never corrects as far as you would expect.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:19 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
GBPJPY Close PI
172.6044 171.2130

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:14 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
eurjpy
Close range
137.1102 136.2818
I just shorted

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:07 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD
PI CLose for today
1.3214 1.3117

cable's
1.6639 1.6519

Day's Trades
dc CB 15:06 GMT 08/27/2014
Stox Up on POMO just done.
$1.031 bil

ECB
Mtl JP 14:54 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Res 3 1.3256
Res 2 1.3235
Res 1 1.3206

Pivot 1.3185

Sup 1 1.3156
Sup 2 1.3135
Sup 3 1.3106
-
Res 2 = practical gap close
would settle the issue in my book

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:50 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD SHorts with 6 pip spikes
tgt 1.3080

ECB
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:47 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
The ECB plan was to wait for the TLTRO (first settlement is Sept 18) before considering additional measures. Market got QE in its head for this meeting so its seems by the price action.

In any case, 1.32 just printed for 3rd day in a row.

My warning about Wednesday often being a correction day may be playing out (see my Trade of the Day).

ECB
Mtl JP 14:43 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
with a little increase in volume ... and presto: 3221 or 3244

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:36 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD I'll short
1.3214 1.3060
1.3232 1.3056

cable as well
1.66951 1.64245
1.66471 1.64042


Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:36 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD I'll short
1.3214 1.3060
1.3232 1.3056

cable as well
1.66951 1.64245
1.66471 1.64042


ECB
london red 14:35 GMT 08/27/2014
imo zero chance of starting qe next week. as for rate cuts,, it wont do anything but raise yields and euro as they will need more wati and see time, which puts qe back even further. so thats a non starter.
they can however use the meeting to entertain the idea of qe and provide more information, as a precursor for announcing concrete plans next time. which would be enough for the market to run further as far as bunds and euro are concerned.
fridays inflation will be important as i dont believe they will want to wait for a negative print before approaching with qe to the market. if germany meets or beats tomorrow, then it probably holds up cpi enough and they are probably out of the woods for a couple of months, but if not and we get a 0.1/0.2 on friday then youd suggest a strong possibilty of qe discussion in a more formal way. if 0.3 then it puts a floor in since the bar is so low and JP gets his gap done by the end of friday trade. anymore than that would require a 0.4.


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