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FOREX FORUM
19/09/14 19:30 US COT Report con: n/a pre: n/a
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Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 15:44 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
10=yr 2.598% 2.60% the focus

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dc CB 15:39 GMT 09/19/2014


:)))))

The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households
Mtl JP 15:38 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
dc CB 19:54 re The Importance of...

debt: U.S. senior citizens owe $18 billion in student loans

Personally I think the aggregate is just too low. Maybe Grammy can help to raise the numbers ?

Weekly Trading Planner
dc CB 15:33 GMT 09/19/2014
Alibaba BABA yet to open. but now seen at $91-92.
larger market cap than JPMorgan

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 15:30 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Markets have moved into a MIXED RISK posture as of the Friday European close. The rejection of the independence vote in Scotland by a margin of 55-45% was the major news of the day. .Betting markets had a better handle on the vote than pollsters.  A BOE rate hike is back of the table for early 2015

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.046%, -4.4bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.541% -4.7bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.616%,  -1.1bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed higher . Bourses in Europe are ending  up. U.S. share futures are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



cable
london red 15:18 GMT 09/19/2014
holds 100 day ma and test 16321 fib. if can move higher here to test 43/47 we might have a temporary low in place. a failure here and subsequent break of 100 day ma points to test of 6277/80 and 50.

My Levels Work
london red 15:04 GMT 09/19/2014
euro. the way the dxy is now set up at prev high, euro must trade thru trendline support at 12827 or risk is for todays close to be 129+

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 15:04 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
10-yr= 2.618%

My Levels Work
london red 14:32 GMT 09/19/2014
cable. breaks 21 fib and trendline briefly. if can sustain itself below, then next trendline is at 16251 which is also 200 hour ma. but at 16277/80 we have pretty critical support (pre gap low and fib). below there 16050 in play again. but weve come down a long way and market can spring a bear trap under 77 to 50 and back. res 16343/47.
dxy attacking highs as i write. move abv 84.66 is bullish targets prev high of 84.75. a weekly close abv really sets this rocket off. its overbought but when has that mattered.

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london red 14:22 GMT 09/19/2014
PAR, banks do want the money. but not to lend. too much time/resources/opportunity cost. now a state created bank in theory could advantage of tltro and lend. that would make sense. and do some good. and help the little guy who needs the loan. which is why it wont happen.

U.S. Leading Indicators August 2014
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
+0.20% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 13:56 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
10-yr = 2.618%

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PAR 13:54 GMT 09/19/2014
If the banks dont want the ECB money . Why NOT give It directly To the People as Draghi is playing with taxpayers money anyhow .

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GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
all about Alibaba today and CNBC infomercial for NYSE.

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
london red 13:33 GMT 09/19/2014
Bought daily call 109 and put 10930 combo. Cost 15 ticks if close within envelope. So looking for a move off the 200 day ma. Lvls 10876 10897 10914 10921 10930 10950

EUR
PAR 13:16 GMT 09/19/2014
Catalans vote with their hart NOT their wallet.

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Core BOC Inflation unexpectedly above central bank target. Raises questions about policy.

Weekly Trading Planner
Livingston nh 12:40 GMT 09/19/2014
Monthly Options expiry today (stox, futures, etc) for Sept (Q3 end) -- so maybe some action or commentary

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
london red 12:39 GMT 09/19/2014
loonie stopped for small gain. core cpi is much stronger. if stays under 200 day ma we are back to 10865/40 territory. will let this one play out for now as a break below if going to be a fast one. if stays below 10921 fib and 25/30 area, good risk of the break happening. abv there you fancy the long with stop under 200 day.

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI. Core CPI higher..

EUR
Livingston nh 12:33 GMT 09/19/2014
There may be some add'l pressure as the TLTRO gets judged - one estimate has the re-fi portion as high as 75% so the core took less than 10% of its eligibility amount

Some folks think December is more important

Seems banks don't think loan demand is high enough (or will be) for the next two years

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile




NEWS ALERT
yy: +2.10% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.70% prev.
Headline
mm: 0.0% vs. 0.0% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.0% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
london red 12:21 GMT 09/19/2014
think fx has eye on bonds. 10 yr dec has couple of long tails on daily candles. we got 3 of those back in july and ran 3 points higher. not suggesting the same but a bit of a rally possible as come a long way. first res 124.08 some way off still. so do you buy 108.45/50 or wait for 107.85.

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Livingston nh 12:20 GMT 09/19/2014
John - any effect anymore on yen from Japan 1/2 yr end? maybe w/ the move of the last month we get a little more volatility?

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 12:18 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
S&P to USDJPY not trading well together recently. S&P looking little heavy?

My Levels Work
london red 12:17 GMT 09/19/2014
fib lvl 16321. saves fall initially. just abv trendline. top side res 43/47. second trendline and 200 hour at 16248 with fib on way dwn at 16277.

loonie update
london red 12:10 GMT 09/19/2014
raising stop to 48 ahead of cpi. inflation isnt likely to beat (if anything a miss) but if it does i suspect market tests 10921/15 where i would buy again with stop a little under figure.
big option pack worth a few yards 10930/11025 with end oct expiry may keep pair shackled so tp somewhere c.110/11020


My Levels Work
london red 12:03 GMT 09/19/2014
updated trendlines for cable 16318 and 16248. 43/47 should now cap. abv bias still negative but less so.

EUR
GVI Forex 11:56 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Catalonia may be pressuring EUR

* Spanish 10-year bond yields bounce off day's lows after catalonia president says to call referendum - tradeweb

Source: FXWire Pro - Money Market


My Levels Work
london red 10:51 GMT 09/19/2014
cable. losing grip on 16386, while below there risk to 16343/47. trendlines at 16316 and 16246, the latter bang on the 200 hour ma.

My Levels Work
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:41 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile


This is the GBPUSD chart I posted with the 1.6531 update

My Levels Work
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:38 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile


I posted the following while on vacation in Estes Park and note how my levels worked, giving some good risk/reward trades (see EURUSD chart - green line is the 100 hour mva) and GBPUSD resistance gave a 7 pip risk).

My levels work and if you want to learn more about how I pick them out and how to use them, just send me an EMAIL


Estes Park JM 03:25 GMT September 19, 2014
GBPUSD: Reply
Daily chart shows potential resistance at 1.6531 (red line). - high so far 1.6524

Estes Park JM 15:04 GMT September 18, 2014
EURUSD: Reply
Note running into resistance in the 200-100 hour mva zone at 1.2925-33. High 1.2928

Weekly Trading Planner
New York GVI Calendar 10:30 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target



Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile


Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


RISK-ON: Scotland Independence Vote Fails
GVI Forex Blog 08:32 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CA- CPI, US- Lead Indicators

Final results from the Scottish independence saw the independence vote fail by wider than expected margin of 55-45% . Investors have sighed a sigh of relief. The only major economic data Item today is Canadian CPI.

RISK-ON: Scotland Independence Vote Fails


Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 08:22 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Markets are in a mild  RISK-ON posture following the rejection of the independence vote in Scotland by a margin of 55-45%. The betting markets had a better handle on the vote than pollsters. Markets are relieved  A BOE rate hike is back of the table for early 2015

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.10%, +1.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.586% -0.2bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.620%,  -0.7bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed higher . Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



EUR/USD This is the top
USA ZEUS 06:43 GMT 09/19/2014
Can't imagine a scenario how Scotland staying in the UK would be EUR/USD positive.

Catalonia
PAR 06:00 GMT 09/19/2014
Scots voted with their wallet. Catalonia Will Be a different animal.

Abe
sd sf 05:02 GMT 09/19/2014
his other headline was Pension Reform ASAP.

Abe
sd sf 04:56 GMT 09/19/2014
Abe says to consider another Sales Tax Hike

GVI Forex Blog 04:24 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG NET MIGRATION: 4.7K V 4.5K; New 11-year high - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG ANZ JOB ADS M/M: +1.4 V -2.4% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 127.7 V 125.5 PRIOR

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan govt cuts economic assessment; NO camp prevailing in Scotland independence vote ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com


SCOTLAND REFERENDUM RESULTS LIVE: Follow all the results from historic vote as they are announced wi
Syd 04:04 GMT 09/19/2014
As almost 4million votes are counted tonight, Scotland's future will be revealed one council at a time across 32 areas. Track the results as they come in - and how the landscape of the nation has emerged - with this live map.

with this live map.


Scotland
GVI Forex 03:56 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
Not a surprise

MNI: SKY NEWS CALLS SCOTLAND REFERENDUM FOR NO CAMPAIGN

GVI Forex Blog 03:56 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile
US Jobless Claims came lower than expected but the fall in Philly Fed index and Housing starts were interpreted as solid reasons to push the rate hike back. So the US market was energetic

Morning Briefing : 19-Sep-2014 -0356 GMT


AceTrader Sept 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:45 GMT 09/19/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

19 Sep 2014

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr continues its recent winning streak and surged to a fresh 6-year peak of 109.45 shortly after Tokyo open as intra-day rally in the Nikkei (currently up by 235 points at 16302) boosted risk sentiment, leading to broad-baesd selling in the yen.

Although price has pared intra-day gain ahead of Tokyo lunch session, buying on dips is the way to go, however, it is advisable to take profit ahead of 110.00 as profit-taking below this 'rumoured' option barrier is expected ahead of the weekend.
Although no major U.S. data are due out today, traders may stand aside later on in NY session ahead of the September 20-21 G20 meeting in Cairns, Australia.

Bids are noted at 109.10-00, 108.90/85 and then 108.70-60 with stops emerging below 108.50.
On the upside, offers from various accounts are placed at 109.50-70 region and further out at 109.90-00.

Earlier Japan gov't said 'cut overall economic view, saying economy in moderate recovery while weakness seen in some areas; cuts view on private consumption, saying it is seen recently although pick-up trend remains intact.'

GBPUSD
Estes Park JM 03:25 GMT 09/19/2014  - My Profile


Daily chart shows potential resistance at 1.6531 (red line). - high so far 1.6524

Alleged Plot by Islamic State Supporters Sparks Security Alert in Australia Stepped-Up Security at P
Syd 01:52 GMT 09/19/2014

CANBERRA, Australia—Intercepted intelligence allegedly showing that Islamic State supporters may be planning to attack Australian lawmakers prompted a security alert Friday at the country's legislature.

The incident came a day after police raids aimed at thwarting a separate alleged plot to behead members of the public.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott said Australian Federal Police—the equivalent of the FBI in the U.S.—would move into the hilltop Parliament House building in the nation's capital, Canberra, after security agencies intercepted intelligence pointing to possible attacks against the government and prime minister.

Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott at a press conference. The country's Parliament faced a security alert Friday.


DJ British Pound Rises as Survey Shows Scottish Voters Leaning Toward U.K.
Syd 01:47 GMT 09/19/2014
WELLINGTON, New Zealand--The British pound rose sharply against the dollar in early Asian trading after initial results from Scotland's independence referendum suggested support for the pro-union campaign.

The pound climbed against the U.S. dollar late in New York trading and got a further lift in Asia on news that most voters in the Scottish districts of Clackmannanshire and Orkney were against independence. It was trading at US$1.6519 in Asia.

A final tally on the Scottish referendum isn't expected until early Friday in Scotland.

Sam Tuck, an Auckland-based currency strategist at ANZ, said the market reacted strongly to the news from Clackmannanshire because "it was expected to be a bit more of a 'yes' shire, so markets are taking it very positively."

He said the pound may have more upside as the results roll in but it will be more "euphoric than lasting."

Many investors believe a vote against independence will remove an obstacle that has impeded the pound's rise against major currencies. In July, the pound hit its highest level against the dollar since the financial crisis, but then declined more than 6% to a 10-month low, a selloff driven partly by the rising popularity of Scotland's independence movement. In recent weeks, many investors have come around to the view that Scottish voters would choose to remain in the U.K., giving the currency a lift off the lows.

A vote to stay in the U.K. "would remove uncertainty over some very big issues," said Alan Ruskin, global head of G-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank. The pound "can now revert back to the traditional fundamentals which had been driving it, such as the relative strength of the U.K. economy and expectations of tightening by the Bank of England," Mr. Ruskin added.

In a postelection survey conducted by pollster YouGov, 54% of respondents voted against Scotland exiting the U.K., compared with 46% who supported independence. YouGov said the survey was based on recontacting voters after they voted. It was released about 30 minutes after polls closed at 10 p.m. U.K. time.

The move higher in the pound kicks off what is likely to be a volatile trading session for currencies and U.K. stocks, which also have been hit by worries about the uncertainty that would result if Scotland broke from the union.

In the run-up to Thursday's vote, investors had expressed concerns about what currency regime an independent Scotland would adopt, as well as how the two countries would divide up debt and natural resources. These worries weighed on the pound, helping to thwart a rally driven by the belief that the Bank of England would be one of the world's first central banks to raise short-term interest rates since the financial crisis, putting it more or less on even footing with the Federal Reserve.

Economic data point to strong growth in the U.K., and have served to underscore the country's divergence with Europe and Japan. The European Central Bank surprised investors earlier this month with an unexpected rate cut, while many investors expect the Bank of Japan to continue its easy-money policies as it tries to kick-start economic growth.

Higher rates boost the appeal of a currency--and assets denominated in that currency--for money managers.

With the BOE getting ready to tighten monetary policy while other central banks continue to ease, "the pound is likely to be one of the better-performing major currencies, in the medium term," said Marc Chandler, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

The bulk of those gains likely will come against currencies such as the euro, rather than the dollar, as the Fed also is expected to begin raising interest rates next year, Mr. Chandler said.

The euro was down against the pound, buying 78.26 pence.

AceTrader Sept 19: Intra-Day News & Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:44 GMT 09/19/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

19 Sep 2014 01:10GMT

GBP/USD - .... Cable continues to climb to intra-day high of 1.6523 after 2nd local council result (total 32) from Orkney Islands showed 'No' won by 67% vs 'Yes' at 33%.

Reuters reported results from smaller councils will appear before larger ones (for obvious reasons), big cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh & Aberdeen are expected to come around 04:00GMT.

Earlier, Cable rises again in Asia on Bloomberg TV news reporting the 1st local council (32 in total) results from Clackmannashire which showed 'No' won by 53.8% vs 'Yes' at 46.2% in the Scottish Independence referendum.

Friday will see the release of Germany's producer prices, eurozone current account, Canada's core CPI, CPI inflation and wholesale trade and U.S. leading index.

scots
Syd 01:09 GMT 09/19/2014
2 of 32 councils declared 21,233 / 42.2% Scottish Referendum - Yes Votes 29,040 / 57.8%

LINK



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