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06/03/15 7:00 B DE Ind Output yy con: 0.50% pre: 0.10%
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AceTrader Mar 6: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:43 GMT 03/06/2015
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Mar 2015 02:14GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback rallied above 120.27 to an intra-day high of 120.40 on Thursday due to dollar's broad-based strength, U.S. dollar pared some of the gains today on profit-taking but renewed buying interest is located at 119.95-90 and more at 119.80 with stops only seen below 119.60 and 119.50.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 120.30-40 with stops seen above 120.50.

Yesterday despite Tuesday's sell off from 120.27 to 119.38, the greenback traded narrowly inside 119.50-119.83 range as focus was on the single currency.
Offers was tipped at 119.85-90 with stops seen above 120.00.
Nikkei-225 index then rebounded by 47 points to 18750. If Japanese shares rises more, it may lift the usd/jpy pair despite the sell off in eur/jpy.


Data to be released on Friday:

Japan leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France exports, imports, budget balance, Swiss CPI, Italy producer prices, EU GDP, Canada building permits, exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, unemployment rate and international trade.

Another Day Another Million Cash
gc sf 01:56 GMT 03/06/2015
Chinese investors "with $1 million cash in suitcases" to buy Sydney property

Link


Why EURUSD 1.10 is So Important
gc sf 22:23 GMT 03/05/2015
JP - I'm sure you probably even remember

between NY Close + Tokyo Open - $Yen used to trade in a 200-400 pt range regularly

now of course this never happens.

Algo's aren't patterned for those movements anymore .. they are looking for a more normal 5-20 pts.... because they have nothing else to trade into..... only major breaking news makes a difference to this.

Why EURUSD 1.10 is So Important
Mtl JP 22:20 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
and me if u would too
if not no grudge

Why EURUSD 1.10 is So Important
gc sf 22:18 GMT 03/05/2015
I'm more suggesting that your profits are being taken away by Algos who are more looking towards correlation trades than just the FX Part

so levels like 1.1000 Jay mentioned take on alot more importance than they would have pre-algo time.

Tradeable sure - dependent on the average daily range.

Why EURUSD 1.10 is So Important
Mtl JP 22:00 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
gc sf 21:28 r u suggesting there are say less than half a dozen algo manufacturers whose similarity of approach offer a concentrate that might be scalp-able ?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 21:58 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile


Why EURUSD 1.10 is So Important
gc sf 21:28 GMT 03/05/2015
Here's my take on "Magic Levels"

In days past in FX there were no magic levels - there were only targets.

So a 1.1000 approach meant we would see 1.0800 before a bounce back to 1.1200 + that type of move would only take 1-2 hours.

There were no Algos or PC Programs monitoring the markets 24/5 looking for any advantage or correlation to trade ... the best we had were Turtle Traders who wanted to break levels not bid them.

This created a situation where Traders who had been around a while would just trade the overshoots + make really good money.

Now we battle over every level - with Algos taking advantage of many more markets operating at the same time + being able to arb here / correlate there and reduce their risk many times over.... yet still churn out profits on a daily basis.

The only time we see the overshoots any more is Monday Opens when all the other markets are closed ... but what happens when everything comes online again ... we end up with the "Monday Effect" and it is back to normal PC driven trades.

FX is interesting in terms of following the themes/data/correlations but not so much the day to day grind of what its become.

At the end of the day everyone has to adapt or get left behind.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 21:05 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
U.S. Bank Stress Tests are Due Today at 21:30 GMT.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 20:55 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile


March 5, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, March 6, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, EZ- GDP, CA- Trade, US- Employment, Trade
  • Far East: No Major data
  • Europe: DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, EZ- GDP
  • North America: CA- Trade, US- Employment, Trade, COT Report



NZD Tumbles
gc sf 20:48 GMT 03/05/2015
gc sf 02:11 GMT 03/05/2015

RBNZ says looking at ways to affect Housing -- may create some sort of extra asset class -- and affect capital adequacy requirements.

NZD down AUDNZD bounces again

NZD Tumbles
GVI Forex 20:45 GMT 03/05/2015
AUD fell from 0.7820 to 0.7754, broad US dollar strength the main factor at play. NZD extended its afternoon slide, falling to 0.7454. It was at 0.7595 before the RBNZ announcement it was looking at measures to cool the housing market, that news causing the NZD to underperform on the day. AUD/NZD extended the day’s gains from 1.0360 to 1.0418.

Westpac NZ

CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:42 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


NZD Tumbles
london red 20:35 GMT 03/05/2015
its a coincidence kiwi couldnt move above 7604/17 fibs yesterday!

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 20:34 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)f
    FRIDAY
    7:00 DE Ind Output yy output
    8:15 CH CPI SNB Target
    10:00 EZ GDP mm broadest view of economy
    10:00 EZ GDP yy broadest view of economy
    13:30 CA Trade C$bn external accounts
    13:30 US Unemployment % unemployment rate
    13:30 US Payrolls Key Jobs data
    13:30 US Trade external accounts
    20:30 US COT Report

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.



NZD Tumbles
GVI Forex john 20:26 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
kw thanks!

NZD Tumbles
nw kw 20:24 GMT 03/05/2015
The New Zealand dollar sank 1.0% against the dollar and fell to a one-month low against the Australian dollar on the possibility that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might resort to property market-specific regulatory changes instead of and delaying a near-term interest rate hike.

Focus on U.S. Payrolls. No Surprises from ECB or BOE
GVI Forex Blog 20:24 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, EZ- GDP, CA- Trade, US- Employment, Trade

Focus on U.S. Payrolls. No Surprises from ECB or BOE


NZD Tumbles
GVI Forex john 20:14 GMT 03/05/2015
any word on why kiwi fell off the table today?

Why EURUSD 1.10 is So Important
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:18 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile

I still find it amazing that psychological levels, such as 1.10 or USDJPY 120 can be so significant in an electronic world where algos and automated trading can have a large influence. The EURUSD 1.10 level, currently under attack, has no technical significance but is one of those major psychological levels that can be even more powerful than any chart point. Whatever the case, what I call magic levels, such as 1.10, continue to be as strong an influence as they were decades ago when psychology was at least as important as technical analysis in dictating market sentiment,

Why EURUSD 1.10 Is So Important


New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 19:09 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
EUR/JPY down 10 percent since the start of the year, give or take.

Asset allocation will depend I suppose a great deal on the outlook for the Euro from here. What's certain is that a lower Euro is not going to have a negative impact on the European economy. Especially considering the fall in the price of OIL.

My guess is that nothing changes until someone pulls the trigger and actually tightens policy.

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 19:04 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
I got:

DAX up 17.3 percent
Italy up 17.8
Russia up 15.3
France up 16

since January 1 2015.

I guess you have to figure what the returns are likely to be from here on in and if the Euro goes lower from here or not. If you are a Japanese investor I would guess the returns look pretty darn good. I don't get the impression that European markets are being driven by an inflow of funds from the States. Bond returns also would have been good.

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 19:01 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
If the corporates are issuing debt it's because they see higher rates further down the line. Question: is the economy strong enough to withstand higher rates?

New Record High on the DAX
dc CB 18:28 GMT 03/05/2015
if you want a Reason for the Treas Bond Carnage look no further than the HUGE corp bond offerings. Buy Berkshire Bonds...betta than US Bonds...


New Record High on the DAX
GVI Forex john 18:18 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
Net USD value of equities in 2015

DAX +14.8% -12.5% (fx) = +2.3%
FTSE +5.70% +2.3% (fx) = +8.0%
Nikkei +4.4% +0.0% (fx) = 4.40%

S&P +1.40%
DJ +1.10%


We have been hearing about U.S. investors moving to Europe. Nice trade in DAX, but not much after forex losses.

EURO outlook
Minneapolis DRS2 18:09 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
CB: It all depends on your trading timeframes and account parameters. Currencies move in both directions, and usually in trading ranges. I use multiple accounts, multiple entry points and multiple trades going on simultaneously. While it is generally true that you do not want to fight a trend, I'm willing to put on buy and sell trades simultaneously that might make profit, just like any professional trader or hedge fund.

Real Talk
dc CB 18:07 GMT 03/05/2015


ok KaL

I'll bite. It's The Democrat Kill Squad spilling on the Republicans

EURO outlook
london red 18:01 GMT 03/05/2015
yes i get it DRS2, euro was 65 cents when allegedly Sadam started buying. so yes it much higher than there and still above the last low following that at 84 cents, but...we are below (monthly closes below last month) two key fibs of both those up moves (11251, 61.8% and 11212, 50%). this suggests further to go for me. and the nearest fib from here on lt monthlies is near 101. but as i said before, i take it one step at a time, one level at a time. 10986 needs to go then 10875. st selling 11025/60 ahead of nfp but likely to go flat or small short dollar into event.

EURO outlook
dc CB 17:52 GMT 03/05/2015
DRS2

the problem is, once a CB or an "elected" official decides on a direction (AKA Trend) it's best not to fight it. The corollary in the US is STOX where BTFDs ... as it is here in the USD/JPY.

Yennie


EURO outlook
Minneapolis DRS2 17:51 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
For a monthly chart, you can go back 10 years and only use 120 bars. You can have daily charts for 10 years and you wouldn't come close to 50000 bars.

EURO outlook
Mtl JP 17:47 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
carrying 50,000 bars in one's trading station (such as MT4) slows it down. makes it sluggish

AUD outlook: Longer term target 0.6300
HK RF@ 17:45 GMT 03/05/2015
/

EURO outlook
Minneapolis DRS2 17:42 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
OK, call it a yearly chart if you wish. My charts are monthly, with very broad timespans going back years.

EURO outlook
dc CB 17:40 GMT 03/05/2015
On a monthly chart, EUR/USD is simply in a trading range, that's all

??

Euro Monthly


EURO outlook
Mtl JP 17:37 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
red 17:16 re algos comment
In a similar fashion, when trading against some major price point , I do not like to wait for confirmation such as 9 n 12ma crossover for example. My experience tells me that is Nigel Jubbs territory.

EURO outlook
Minneapolis DRS2 17:35 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
Am I prepared to go "against the trend"? It depends on what trend you are talking about. On a monthly chart, EUR/USD is simply in a trading range, that's all. It is definitely at multi-year lows. For short-term trades, I'll sell. For longer term trades (which for me can go on for months), I'm not selling.

EURO outlook
dc CB 17:28 GMT 03/05/2015
Trend
Going on a Year

Euro


EURO outlook
kl fs 17:26 GMT 03/05/2015
Drs2 are you prepared to part with your hard earned money by going against the trend?

EURO outlook
london red 17:23 GMT 03/05/2015
DRS2 its a figure of speech. simply a break of supp tgts nxt supp and so on. as for a change well 3 major res breaks in a row and i will join you on the upside. but for now long term trend is down and picking a bottom is just down to luck as really right now as of this second, there is nothing fundamental or technical in the market to suggest a change in lt trend to the upside.

EURO outlook
kl fs 17:18 GMT 03/05/2015
fresh euro short for parity?

EURO outlook
Minneapolis DRS2 17:17 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
Nonsense...currencies can always come back. They are just pairs to be bought and sold. At extremes, one can always find a reason to justify continuance of "the never ending trend". It's always the same...one currency sucks and the other is awesome, or vice versa.

EURO outlook
london red 17:16 GMT 03/05/2015
there you have your stop run under 1.10. this is pure algo and why i put 10986 as the true supp. doesnt pay algos to run that low so if it does its a true break. write this one down in your sketch book as itll make you a lot of money. 11025 is now res, 10986 dwnside pivot.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 17:09 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
RISK ON with ECB QE on track. Note equities are higher in North America and Europe. Bond yields are lower in Europe. USD higher.

EURO outlook
Mtl JP 17:08 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
gbpusd
Sup 1 1.5218
price:1.5215
Sup 2 1.5175

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile


EURO outlook
Mtl JP 17:05 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
like anyone joining the euro: "no coming back"
assimilation is foregone, resistance is futile

EURO outlook
london red 17:02 GMT 03/05/2015
euro. below 10986 then there is no coming back. for now 11025 caps.

EURO outlook
Mtl JP 16:57 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
I do not know what 1.10 or 1.09 means when folks talks about "psychological level". Maybe algos have advanced to some evolutionary level of which I am not aware ? oooohh ... what if the algo's self-evolved ?

EURO outlook
Mtl JP 16:49 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
eurdlr
Sup 2 1.0983
Sup 3 1.0903


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