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FOREX FORUM
30/09/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm con: n/a pre: 0.30%
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Forex Trade of the Day
London Chris 11:42 GMT 09/30/2014
It is hard not to be bearish but price action and lack of sell calls here says otherwise.

Forex Trade of the Day
london red 11:30 GMT 09/30/2014
using pre data high to day low. so far they did the 23.6 off lows a couple of times with a really weak bull trap on the second. still v weak. usually you get the 38.2 or 50 so still strongly points to downside. i have an interim level at 12562, but the fib at 12502 is the main lvl of focus as you say.
re calls, pretty much majority of board is bearish i would have thought. and rightly so. but to put it in black and white, 11700 before 13020.

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:23 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile


Weekly chart - little until 1.2040 following the 1.2662 break

Red, are you using fibs for the day's range?

Forex Trade of the Day
london red 11:14 GMT 09/30/2014
john think best realistically now is a return to 12610 but all things being equal data wise, probably not today, maybe tomorrow. its the unbeaten, thus far, prev high. i had my stop abv it until recently, now hve abv 12596, the most recent high and a couple of pips abv the 23.6 of data high to low.

hicp
London Chris 11:13 GMT 09/30/2014
John I was reacting to what red said about rounding but it matters little since the reaction to news is what matters.

What I am surprised at is how few sell euro calls there have been here and perhaps that is why it continues to fall as it is harder and harder for traders to sell the lower it gets. This is why I asked for possible support levels, more as a target than a place to buy.

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:00 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
So much for the hope the fixing gives us better sell levels scenario. Still have to watch the fixing times but close below 1.2662 is bearish and 1.25 is now on the radar as long as below 1.2650.

hicp
GVI Forex john 10:48 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Chris- I suggest you look at the HICP chart and stop worrying about "rounding errors". CPI data tend to change by about only one tenth of a percent or so m/m. To say a change of that magnitude is a "rounding error" is not helpful when the markets are going to react.

Eurozone Flash HICP Sees Prices Continuing To Fall. Weak German Employment Figures
GVI Forex Blog 10:40 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CA- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, Chicago PMI, CB Confidence

Eurozone flash September HICP saw prices continue to fall. This will intensify the pressure on the ECB to stabilize prices at its meeting this week. German unemployment figures were weaker than expected, but retail Sales data were mixed.

Eurozone Flash HICP Sees Prices Continuing To Fall. Weak German Employment Figures. Final U.K. QQ GDP Revised Higher


Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 10:28 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Markets appear to be movning into  a RISK-ON posture today following weak flsh Eurozone HICP data and weaker than expected German unemployment data ahead of the ECB decision on Thursday.. The EURUSD is trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 0.980%,  +2.0% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.490% +5.0bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.520%, +3.2bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are mostly higher.  U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Day's Trades
london red 10:17 GMT 09/30/2014
euro thru 23.6 fib at 08 lets see if they set a bull trap to the 38.2 at 12619.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:15 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Red
You are a great trader my friend.. :)
always...hates off to you brother

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:13 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
USDCAD Pivot for the week
1.1183

day 1.1158

Long layer
1.1113 1.1099

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:09 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Red/
I can not comment here my friend

Just that i look at my differential alternatives at the same time...
there are other pairs
Like AUDUSD seems more importatnt to me at this level

Pivot for the week 0.8688
day 0.8721
short layer
0.8782 0.8776
Not messing with cable


Day's Trades
london red 10:04 GMT 09/30/2014
kal re cable you always get your chances. the gap low at 77 was tested yest and today. today i got stopped following upside initially, but back under the move came. cable is outperforming now due to eurgbp but 16160 should come evenually while under 6240. for now last low at 6215 caps.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:00 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Red/
It might get over volatile and keep south (Generally south for sure)

Just that I can not work on these terms on average (Over all trading if you know what i mean)

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:57 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
USDCHF
Pivot this week 0.9538
today 0.9517
Max Layer 0.9598 0.9554
Not messing with staying long

Day's Trades
london red 09:57 GMT 09/30/2014
kal, you saw the move below 2660 is a big deal, a close below cements the downtrend. i dont think we shall see abv it unless euro is ready to rebound. i would want to see eurgbp reaction c. 7740/64. the first one was always going to bounce but they should test many times as it a crunch level for much bigger losses or a rebound.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:54 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Red
I am pivoting EURUSD for this week
1.2647

today
1.2677
Max Layers
1.2742 1.2727

I can not short here!!

Day's Trades
london red 09:51 GMT 09/30/2014
updated fibs off fresh low 23.6 12608, 38.2 at 19, 50 at 28. current rebound stops at 23.6 fib.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:50 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
EURAUD Longs...much more here

cable 1.6181 to 1.6120 maybe worst low today

Day's Trades
london red 09:46 GMT 09/30/2014
still lower, last high now 12610.4. it followed a little consolidation. so while below there that 12562 target real. lower daily bolli at 12621. after trading below it a return abv it often means some consolidation. so if its still to go down should stay below it.

Day's Trades
london red 09:35 GMT 09/30/2014
change in momentum. selling points 61.8 50 and 23.6 percentages of pre data to low are 34, 26, 17. flash high after data 37.4.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:34 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
will still short EURUSD above 1.2677

Longs EURNZD
tgt above 1.6370

hicp
london red 09:25 GMT 09/30/2014
eurgbp 7740 is 50% 0.98/0.58. last major low 7764. these are likely to be hit before any major respite.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:23 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Longs EURAUD and GBPAUD, GBPNZD
still short AUDUSD

hicp
sd sf 09:21 GMT 09/30/2014
a lot of breakout bot selling triggering -- the targets they are looking for

EUR 1.2532 .. GBP 1.6145

just putting it out there.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 09:19 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile


Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



hicp
london red 09:19 GMT 09/30/2014
chris, pre a lot of talk of 0.4 as of 0.3, so some clear disappointment. i have 12562 next while 12660 holds, then 12502. short term high at 12638 should cap while last high at 26 will give indication how desperate people are to sell.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:17 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Closed Cable shorts
I don thing will go much lower then 1.6180
Reshort above 1.6223


hicp
London Chris 09:13 GMT 09/30/2014
Quite a move for a rounding error! Any suggestions for the next support.?

flash HICP (CPI) September 2014
GVI Forex john 09:06 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile

EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) working lower. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target.



flash HICP (CPI) September 2014
GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile




ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.70% vs. vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

UK GDP-- 2Q14
GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
U.K.final 2Q14 GDP q/q up slightly. Solid data.


cable
london red 08:53 GMT 09/30/2014
flash low after data just abv the 6240 level. this is now a pivot for further losses. which should be to 6210/00 on a break. while abv 40, risk to 6277/80 apparent.

hicp
london red 08:51 GMT 09/30/2014
seems to be a close close vs 0.3/0.4. rounding might coming into play here. i would say a 0.3 might be a slight disappointment but downside stops have been cleared suggesting a squeeze higher.

German Real Retail Sales August 2014
GVI Forex john 08:36 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
EARLIER: German Monthly Retail Sales data better than expected.



German Unemployment September 2014
GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile

German September Unemployment RISES (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.



UK GDP-- 2Q14
GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile



-- NEWS ALERT --

QQ +0.90% vs. 0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.
YY +3.20% vs. +3.20% exp. vs. +3.20% prev.


RELEASE: U.K. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:26 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Not happy shorts on gold this week

More Into EURUSD, Cable, AUDUSD (*) shorts
Not Into Longs USDJPY...More Into USDCHF and USDCAD Longs

German Real Retail Sales August 2014
GVI Forex 08:05 GMT 09/30/2014




Earlier ALERT
mm: +2.50% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% (r -1.10 ) prev.
yy: +0.1% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +1.00% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

AceTrader Sept 30: Intra-Day News & Views GBP/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:57 GMT 09/30/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

30 Sep 2014

GBP/USD - ...... U.K. Sept Nationwide house prices +9.4% y/y n -0.2% m/m. U.K.'s Nationwide says 'Q3 London house prices +21% y/y vs Q2 25.8%, 31% above 2007; U.K. house prices may soften in Q4, but outlook uncertain.''

Cable shrugged off the release of weaker-than-expected house price data and climbed above Asian high of 1.6268 to 1.6271 shortly after European open.
Fresh bids are noted at 1.6240-30 and more at 1.6220/15, then 1.6210 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 1.6200.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6275/80 and 1.6290/95 with stops placed just above 1.6300.


German Unemployment September 2014
GVI Forex 07:57 GMT 09/30/2014



NEWS ALERT
rate: 6.70%vs. 6.70% exp. vs. 6.70% prev.
change: +12K vs. -2k exp. vs. +1K (r +3K) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

AUD: the context
Paris ib 07:01 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
"South Korea logged a monthly decline of 3.8%, the sharpest contraction seen since December 2008, with the annual rate sliding to -2.8% from +3.9% in July. Coupled with the ugly Chinese print for August, +6.8% YY, a level not seen since December 2008, and you get a good understanding of why commodity prices continue to weaken"...

Small pause here in the AUD slide as market assess the direction of the USD from here.

Growth slowdown in Asia


long aud/usd here scalp play
tokyo ginko 06:34 GMT 09/30/2014
mkt 8760..still see more upside

Morning
london red 06:27 GMT 09/30/2014
cable. pre gap low of 16277. either side 16240 16321

Japan
Mtl JP 06:22 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
Japanís economy fragile ahead of tax decisions

numbnuts Abe at "work"poised to hike the sales tax to 10%.
BUT why not to 20, eh genius ?

Morning
sd sf 05:04 GMT 09/30/2014
sorry I don't have any CAD orders or positions from my auto-trader and I don't have a personal view either way.

Morning
sd sf 05:00 GMT 09/30/2014
seeing selling in eurusd + gbpusd for t/p coming in now.

GVI Forex Blog 04:38 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
- (CN) CHINA SEPT FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.2 V 50.5E (4th straight expansion)- (JP) JAPAN AUG JOBLESS RATE: 3.5% (3-month low) V 3.8%E - (JP) JAPAN AUG LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 1.4% V 0.9%E (6

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China HSBC manufacturing PMI still in expansion but softer than expected; Hong Kong's Leung warns standoff may last - Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Forex Blog 04:02 GMT 09/30/2014  - My Profile
With nothing significant in the global market, all eyes are fixed on the RBI meet today.

Morning Briefing : 30-Sep-2014 -0401 GMT



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