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FOREX FORUM
24/04/14 8:00 DE IFO Current con: 115.7 pre: 115.2
24/04/14 8:00 DE IFO Expectations con: 105.9 pre: 106.4
24/04/14 8:00 DE IFO Climate con: 110.5 pre: 110.7
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Forex News
nw kw 01:25 GMT 04/24/2014
Kiwi rallies after RBNZ signals more rate hikes ahead

last week it had a bad print pos from last hike so he is going to crush it faster

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:09 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Two scenario

1) Draghi comments on current market which in this case means he will be dovish

2) Draghi sticks to topic and doesn't comment on the current situation which disappoints the EUR bears

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:53 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Next key event risk

German IFO then Draghi speech

Market will be quiet until then.

Meanwhile this can be a great thread if you post trading ideas, your bias or just your view on the market .

But to make it work we need your participation.

So don't be shy. Step up and post.




Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:15 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
* Kiwi rallies after RBNZ signals more rate hikes ahead

* Other major currencies remain stubbornly subdued

* Euro awaits speech by head of ECB

FOREX-Kiwi flies on hawkish RBNZ, euro eyes ECB speech


$yen
syd sf 23:56 GMT 04/23/2014
I can see $yen heading up to 75/78 in Asia today

downside probably solid at 35/38 for a bullish up move.

euryen as well to that 90-00 resistance point.

the only currency that seems to need any hedging - is the Aud.

euro I can understand there maybe some people about worried about Draghi - but the guy had not done anything to upset anyone drastically ... so moves maybe pretty muted there.

Draghi speaks on Thursday
GVI Forex 23:50 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Event: Keynote speech by the President at the conference "De Nederlandsche Bank 200 years: central banking in the next two decades" organised by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Time: 11 a.m. CET

CET = GMT + 2 hours

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 21:29 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Note S&P e-mini futures gapped higher on FB and has been supported by aapl. Higher S&P futures have been supportive of a higher USDJPY. The correlation trade keeps on working.

DJ futures are up as well (+40pts). Not surprising. Higher stox prices tend to be USD supportive.

I keep tapping on my screen because the EURUSD price seems to be stuck (1.3815 last.) Thursday sees the key German IFO Survey. German data have recently been fairly consistently positive, but the ECB does not want it any higher. Also another potential market mover could be Draghi's Speech tomorrow in Amsterdam. Odds are he will not comment of policy, but there is always a chance so be forewarned.


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:18 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile


April 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, April 24. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- IFO, EZ- Draghi, US- Durable Goods, Weekly Jobless
  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- IFO, EZ- Draghi, GB- CBi Distributive Trades.
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, 7-yr.



Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 21:14 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Note RBNZ is using a rising exchange rate as a monetary policy tool...

"...The speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures, including the extent to which the high exchange rate leads to lower inflationary pressure...


Monetary policy is a critical element in what drives exchange rates.

April 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand
GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Headline inflation is moderate, but inflationary pressures are increasing and are expected to continue doing so over the next two years. In this environment it is important that inflation expectations remain contained. To achieve this it is necessary to raise interest rates towards a level at which they are no longer adding to demand. The speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures, including the extent to which the high exchange rate leads to lower inflationary pressure.

By increasing the OCR as needed to keep future average inflation near the 2 percent target mid-point, the Bank is seeking to ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained...

from RBNZ Statement

Apple Magic Stox afterhours
dc CB 21:08 GMT 04/23/2014
the kicker

*APPLE SETS 7 FOR 1 STOCK SPLIT, BOOSTS BUYBACK TO $90B

Apple Magic Stox afterhours
dc CB 21:03 GMT 04/23/2014
whaHoooo
to the moon tomorrow?


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Here we go again. We are seeing a EURUSD close of 1.3816. It looked like we were going to see a higher close earlier. Hard to believe.

Your Best Trade Today
Kaunas DP 19:40 GMT 04/23/2014
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3817 Target: 1.4320 Stop: 1.3717

longed

time frame, - till SL or end of May 2014

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:27 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands



Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:25 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
... and EURUSD seems set to close again below 1.3820

Dismal U.S. Housing Data. Aus CPI soft. Mixed Flash PMIs for China, EZ and U.S.
GVI Forex Blog 19:17 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, DE- IFO, EZ- Draghi, US- Durable Goods, Weekly Jobless

Thursday features the major German IFO Survey results. U.K. Retail Sales data due Friday are always a key release. The final April University of Michigan Survey is also released on Friday. Next week will see a FOMC decision and the critical monthly U.S. employment reports.

Dismal U.S. Housing Data. Aus CPI soft. Mixed Flash PMIs for China, EZ and U.S.


USDX
Cambridge Joe 17:29 GMT 04/23/2014
USDX looking softer for the next several hours. IMO. GL

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex john 15:40 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Late in European trade, today has turned into a "risk-off" session which tends to favor the USD. Furthermore, The EURUSD is back at 1.3814 have been modest. Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher as equities have fallen. The prices for the peripheral bond markets are higher.

European equities are closing lower. Far East equity markets closed mixed earlier. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.68%, -4 bp.




Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:33 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD is back into the 1.3790/00-20 7 day closing zone. See my video.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:23 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
New home sales tumbled to eight-month low in March, dropping 14.5% y/y. However the January and February totals were revised up 3% and 2%, respectively. Affordability is likely becoming a big factor for the market:

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equities Pause after Six Up Sessions


GBPUSD 16759 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 15:04 GMT 04/23/2014
16759 confirmed and will be reached.
any rise above 16801 will return to it

March 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
dc CB 15:04 GMT 04/23/2014
New Homes Sales have unexpectedly turned south. Unavailable mortgages, lack of Supply and affordability blamed

what no mention of the WEATHER???? LOL

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile


April 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, April 24. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, Unemployment, DE- IFO, EZ- Draghi, US- Durable Goods, Weekly Jobless
  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, Unemployment.
  • Europe: DE- IFO, EZ- Draghi, GB- CBi Distributive Trades.
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, 7-yr.



Mr Wfakhoury
Amman wfakhoury 15:01 GMT 04/23/2014
EURUSD reached its high at 13855 ..we are heading down unless 1 hr bar closed above 13855 then 13880 will be seen.
if 1 hr bar closed below 13842 then first target 13825.
----------------------------------
13825 reached
now the close of 1 hr bar above 13825 means 13842 is coming
the close below means 13795 is coming

Cable
Cambridge Joe 14:49 GMT 04/23/2014


Cambridge Joe 18:30 GMT April 22, 2014
Cable : Reply
Cable HOD in place. Now to travel South . 6800 / 6770 f0r starters.

---------------------------

6770 reached. Now some bounce . An SOB opportunity IMO. GL

US EIA Weekly Inventories
GVI Forex john 14:33 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +3.520 vs. +2.500 exp vs. +10.000 prev.
Gasoline: +2.500 vs. -1.500 exp vs. +0.155 prev.
Distillates: +0.600 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -1.300 prev.
Cap/Util: 91.0% vs. 89.1%n/a exp vs. 88.80% prev.


Weekly Petroleum Status Report





TTN: Live News Special Offer


March 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Sales of new single-family houses in March 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This
is 14.5 percent (12.9%) below the revised February rate of 449,000 and is 13.3 percent (9.9%) below the March 2013
estimate of 443,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2014 was $290,000; the average sales price was $334,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 193,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate.

--U.S. Census Bureau

March 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile


Ugly chart

New Homes Sales have unexpectedly turned south. Unavailable mortgages, lack of Supply and affordability blamed


March 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Big miss on New Homes sales. Spring rebound was expected.

March 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
384K vs. 450K exp. vs. 440K (r449K) prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

They like to keep fit.
HK RF@ 13:59 GMT 04/23/2014


Russian military conducts military exercise in Rostov region bordering Ukraine, defense ministry official says - @Reuters

U.S. April 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
GVI Forex john 13:52 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile



U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI. Weaker than forecast. Up vs. month ago level. .



Your Best Trade Today
NY JM 13:43 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Price action suggests market was caught wrong footed on several fronts.

CPI data, long ignored, has become one of the key economic indicators for 2014



Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 13:14 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
We have the Draghi speech on our calendar, I doubt if he will have anything to say tomorrow on policy. The best venue for policy statements is the regular policy meeting (next May 8).

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:10 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Market feels a bit shell shocked today by some of the moves. Perhaps this will give some insights (as posted earlier on GVI Forex)



Video Market Update

Reactions to news suggests a lack of conviction. Will Draghi disappoint?

February 2014 Canada: Retail Sales
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile


Canada: Retail Sales higher than expected but lower after revisions to prior data.

February 2014 Canada: Retail Sales
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile




NEWS ALERT
Headline: +0.50 % vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +1.30% (r 0.90%)prev.
X-Autos:+0.60% % vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +1.00% (r 0.50%) prev.


RELEASE: Canadian Retail Sales



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

USD
eu pat 12:29 GMT 04/23/2014
sell usd looks well... against what?...nzd, aud are prefered...cad,gbp, eur, jpy, ...we will see)))


_____________________________________________________It was not the best prediction. Especially with regard USD and NZD ... First hour through European night it was still true, but AUD inflation will dramtically changed USD setup ..
Personally, I think market was not expected less inflation and the market remained quite astonished. There will be RBNZ ( there is currently counted rise rates .. will be no rise relative to situation in AUD?) ... It's quite likely ...

I still see that the USD gonna weaker .. It's a setup for a few weeks, so it still need confirmation signal. Especially against the EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD ... But for the current play at crosses it's hard to say .. Rather, it should diversify position.

I repeat, it seems to me that the market is astonished by AUD data, and it is chaos. GBP statment was expected ...
Any opinion is welcome)))

Your Best Trade Today
London Chris 12:17 GMT 04/23/2014
I understand correlations but that seems more of an excuse today for the usdjpy drop but it did seem to lead stocks. This is a good day for running stops.

I Need Help Trading the News
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:47 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Timely article, especially after today's price action, and worth reading.

Ask Your Advocate: I Need Help Trading the News


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:08 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
One rationale for being short EURUSD this week is Draghi's speech tomorrow where it is hoped he reiterates his dovish stance. However, see below for the topic and there is a risk he does not address the current monetary policy and the Euro.

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands - ECB President Mario Draghi gives a keynote speech at the conference "De Nederlandsche Bank 200 years: central banking in the next two decades" organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 10:33 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
You can't get away from the correlation trades. The DAX fell before the S&P.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:27 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Dealers were hoping that the Eurozone PMI releases would help break the Euro out of its recent trading range. However, for the time being EUR/USD continued to remain locked in its recent 200 pip April range

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets pick up as EU earnings get underway; PMI data mixed


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 10:21 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Finally the markets have come back to life.

It looks like it was the USDJPY that just led the S&P futures lower. S&P is now down 3 points on the day.

Earlier, the DAX (-29pts) fell following the stronger than expected EZ and German flash PMI data. The concern is that the data could reduce the possibility of an ECB policy easing in May?

U.S. Markit flash Manufacturing PMI data due today are a relatively new still a second-tier release. The ISM PMI's are the more established and closely-followed release. the two PMI measures often do not coincide. Canadian Retail Sales are due as well. It always has bothered me how old these data are (February). This can be a market-moving release.

GBPJPY 172.20 wfakhoury DL
Johannesburg HvW 09:58 GMT 04/23/2014  - My Profile
Thank you Mr.Wfakhoury, much appreciate your views.

Closed my trade @ 171.777.

GBPJPY 172.20 wfakhoury DL
Amman wfakhoury 09:57 GMT 04/23/2014
171.80 reached in few mins.


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