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FOREX FORUM
19/09/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y con: 1.70% pre: 1.70%
19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm con: 0.00% pre: -0.20%
19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy con: 2.10% pre: 2.10%
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Scotland
london red 16:18 GMT 09/18/2014
polls close at 10pm bst. media isnt allowed to discuss trend of vote while voting takes place so exit polls are going to be released after 10 i would guess. bst.

courtesy of guardian.co.uk

2am - North Lanarkshire - 6.3% of the population (yes)
2am - Perth and Kinross - 4.2% (no)
2am - Western Isles - 0.5% (yes)
3am - Aberdeenshire - 4.8% (no)
4am - Fife - 7.1%
4am - Highlands - 4.4% (no)
5am - Glasgow - 11.5% (yes)
5am - Edinburgh - 8.8% (no)
5am - Borders - 2.2% (no)
6am - Aberdeen - 4.2% (no)

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) August 2014
dc CB 16:13 GMT 09/18/2014
Wasn't the Homebuilder sentiment Yesterday at a 9 Year High.

Gammy want's poor people to build assests and SAVE money...but she refuses to pay them any interest on that saved money.
But then she's a PHd, so that concept is beyond here.
I guess she means they should save and buy one or two shares of stock and hope it goes up.

Scotland
GVI Forex john 16:10 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
Heard earlier exit polls start at 6PM EDT. did I get that correct? It was either 5PM or 6pm?

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:57 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
NZDUSD SHorts in place
0.8145
0.8199
0.8180
0.8240
0.8220
0.8184

Dollar Index
london red 15:36 GMT 09/18/2014
for dxy i have trendline at 84.66 and 144 month ema at 84.58. its a monthly chart. there has been almost zero retracement into last months range as we broke higher straight away. so its a strong breakout.
cable reacted off 47 fib perfect. if you didnt buy cant try first pullback with stop a little under say at 44. market only gives one chance to open position at optimum point. and then you have to risk more than initially.

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 15:35 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
Markets remain in a  RISK-ON posture following the mixed message from Fed Chair Yellen yesterday. She seemed to signal a dovish posture in the short run, but opened up the risk of a more aggressive policy tightening later. All are on Scotland watch.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.09%, +4.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are mostly up.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.588% +6.8bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.626%,  +3.2bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed to higher . Bourses in Europe are closing up. U.S. shares are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Dollar Index
HK Kevin 15:19 GMT 09/18/2014
Dollar Index reverses from at 84.80 today. May be we have seen an intermediate top, but need to look at weekly close tmr for confirmation.

Day's Trades
london red 15:18 GMT 09/18/2014
have gone long usdcad at 10941, stop at 10908, under 200 day ma currently 10911.

Day's Trades
london red 15:15 GMT 09/18/2014
cable fails to hold 16386. you suspect more spec buying now so more two way trade. support at 16347/55. maybe some at 70.
yen still holding on to trendline but not doing much past that.

DOW
PAR 15:09 GMT 09/18/2014
DOW new record and rising Eurusd hiivher


Problem is this does mot solve unemploymeny nor housiing.

EURUSD
Estes Park JM 15:04 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
Note running into resistance in the 200-100 hour mva zone at 1.2925-33. High 1.2928

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:54 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
Cable shorts
1.6405
1.6480
1.6468
1.6530
1.6556
1.6544

yen
london red 14:42 GMT 09/18/2014
intraday trendline at 10857. if below may dollar goes tits across the board. just for a short while.

Euro Short
Mtl JP 14:33 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.2910 Target: south Stop: 1.2925-ish

x fingers

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
+90 vs. +90 exp vs. +92 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 14:25 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
September 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, September 19. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: UK- Scotland Vote Results, CA- CPI, US- Leading Indicators

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 19, 2014


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 14:23 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile


September 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, September 19. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: UK- Scotland Vote Results, CA- CPI, US- Leading Indicators
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: UK- Scotland Results
  • North America: CA- CPI, US- Leading Indicators, COT Report



U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) August 2014
Mtl JP 14:20 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
the dead flat New Homes Starts and Permits clash with Yellen's The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households
-
She seems so clueless... did she already forget what happens when the remaining 35% of non-house owners enter the real-estate ladder ?

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.634% (200day avg 2.65%). I'm not sure the 200-day average means much?

U.S. Philly Fed Index September 2014
london red 14:09 GMT 09/18/2014
audcad touched double trendlines crossing at 9815 on weekly chart. that level will decide whether aussie see 8918 or 9000 first and of course whether loonie tests 200 day ma or not-1.09/110

EURUSD
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
thats what Draghi wants!

Kuroda likes a weaker JPY also.

Obama has no idea what he wants...

EURUSD
Mtl JP 14:03 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
john 13:59 u r causing Kuroda stress with such targets talk

U.S. Philly Fed Index September 2014
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
fwiw
Philly employment sub-component 21.1 vs 9.1

U.S. Philly Fed Index September 2014
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
+22.5 vs. +23 exp. vs. +28.0 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

EURUSD
GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
The EURUSD price action over the past day has been typical of this market. It seems that a major event or data news item is required to take EURUSD to each new lower level. In the interim, its a mistake to focus too intently on the price action. If you are not pre-positioned for EURUSD weakness, this is a very difficult move to catch. I am still targeting 1.2500 initially and then likely 1.2000, but we have to take this as one new level at a time.

EURUSD
Mtl JP 13:57 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
JM prefered trade side is still to sell

EURUSD
london red 13:57 GMT 09/18/2014
market battled abv/below 12919 and 31 before eventually making its move lower, while trendline on 4h at 12909, dropping about 2 ticks every 4 hours.

cable. 16386 fib capped so far but tendency is to buy dips. when eventually break, fibs at 16418 and 16487 are in play. not sure market will tackle the latter until after polling over and results start coming in.
16347 fib now supports as well as a collection of short term ma's c. 50-55.

EURUSD
Estes Park JM 13:50 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
1.2800-50 proving to be a sticky zone as suggested

Resistance starts at former 1.2910 support but 1.29 likely to be the bias setter

1.2925-33 = current 200-100 hour mva

Yellen Speech
GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
As expected, she makes no comments on policy. Her speech was taped.

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
New Homes Starts and Permits. Data looks dead flat to me.



U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile

U.S. Weekly Jobless corrects recent holiday-related increases



Click on chart for over ten-year history


kiwi
london red 12:38 GMT 09/18/2014
level is 8084

kiwi
london red 12:36 GMT 09/18/2014
big trend line on weekly at 8094. thru c. .66 to .77. if close week below, suggests much much lower.

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) August 2014
GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Starts: 956 vs. 1040 exp. vs. 1093 (r 1117)prev.
Permits: 998 vs. 1045 exp. vs. 1057 (r)prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
280K vs. 305K exp. vs. 315K (r 316K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.429 vs. 2.470 exp. vs. 2.467 (r 2.492) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


USDJPY
london red 12:27 GMT 09/18/2014
yup 110.50 puts is the first time i will consider shorting this pair once abv 110. you dont stand in the way of such price action even if overbought. as overbought can get more overbought. its not giving many chances to buy the dip so better stand aside than short.
cable. now done the 100 4h ma and 48 fib. lets see if can hold on. then range top lifts to 16386.

USDJPY
Estes Park JM 12:22 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile


And note the daily chart and acceleration after the 105.42 breakout

USDJPY
Estes Park JM 12:21 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile


Monthly chart (and weekly the same) shows the next key target at 110.65

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
london red 12:17 GMT 09/18/2014
nh looks like the dec contract is heading for july 31st low of 123,38. you probably want to fade a break below, as then market probably ahead of game and as we all know, there are always rough spots in data to get the bears growling again.
cable. market woke up quite late to possible consequences of referendum, but even so, a lot of hedging has taken place following the shock poll a couple of weeks ago. some of this will expire, a lot will need to be unwound. CA are looking for 16850 by the time london kicks in tomorrow morning (on a no). im not quite so bullish. i can see a high anywhere between 16485-16650 and i dont see the market closing at the HOD either, think it will peak then ease lower as people start refocusing on the fed. as for the uk, the one rate hike in spring is in the price and its not really data based, they have made the decision to head towards normalisation and thats part of the step. that ones in the price. future hikes will be based on data.

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
Livingston nh 12:07 GMT 09/18/2014
Last night's 10 yr close was higher than last Friday's intraday hi (that spooked stox) - we shall see today whether stox respond accordingly

It's been two years since Ben led the Fed into the QE Wilderness w/ assurances that exit would be "no problem" - the new FOMC continues to walk in circles

Now we just wait to see if bonds are still bulletproof

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 12:01 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
US 10-yr 2.629% continues to creep higher post FED.

data due in 30 mins.

gbp spikes
Livingston nh 11:51 GMT 09/18/2014
Absent the referendum back and forth cable would likely be lower as the focus would be on rates - still think Carney is boxed into mid winter window for any pre election move but EUR/GBP level and the mixed econ stats say hike is unlikely before summer // a "no" vote should see a mild reaction and then resumption of fundamental downtrend

On a brighter note the EU folks are squeezing more tax out of London on financial transactions -- at some point the Brits may decide to take their leave

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 11:45 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
USDCAD Might see 1.14 in a couple of months
a call Option for strike 1.1100 is on the money for Nov/2014

USDJPY
GVI Forex 11:27 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
* Saxo capital markets: there will be resistance for Dollar into 109 and 110 Yen, but it's pointless standing in front of the train at the moment

Source: FXWire Pro - Curency Forecast

TLTRO
Livingston nh 11:22 GMT 09/18/2014
Any idea how much of this was new money vs rollover from previous (re-fi)? -- seems not much reaction

gbp spikes
london red 11:12 GMT 09/18/2014
16323 fib now support while 16348 is 50% of 16650/16050 and 100ma on 4h chart at 16349 are res ahead of 16386.

gbp spikes
tokyo ginko 11:11 GMT 09/18/2014
market betting a "No" for paying only 1.15..as for Yes, paying 4-5 times

gbp spikes
london red 11:03 GMT 09/18/2014
most recent poll has 53 no 47 yes suggesting its still close but other questions asked paint a different picture. when asked if yes or no will win, 46% scots felt no would win, while only 30% thought yes would win, of those polled.

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 11:00 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile
THURSDAY
Scotland Referendum
7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
12:45 FRB  academic speech
14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target


Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 10:55 GMT 09/18/2014  - My Profile


Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





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