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Syd 06:04 GMT 03/29/2015
(US) Fed Chair Yellen: Can't wait to achieve employment and inflation mandates before raising rates, remain likely to raise rates this year - "The New Normal for Monetary Policy" conference - There is still some way to go on employment, progress on inflation goal is notably absent- Would not be wise to wait until right on verge of 2% inflation to raise rates, unlikely that a small rate increase would negatively impact jobs growth. Reiterates must be mindful that effects of policy are felt with a lag.- If inflation fell further than it could weigh against rate rise- Labor market gains have been substantial and are likely to continue, there could be some value in allowing the jobs market to run a bit hot- Reiterates the expected path of rate rises is more important than the date of rate liftoff; rate liftoff like to be followed by more rate hikes- There is the possibility that GDP is likely to expand at a faster than potential rate in the coming quarters- Markets have been more pessimistic than the Fed- Reiterates that holding rates too low for too long could promote excessive risk taking. - Source

Video: Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead: Expect Volatility
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:47 GMT 03/28/2015  - My Profile

>> Free Open Access <<

This is an event filled week but generally not one that sees big bets ahead of the long Easter break. This week also includes month.quarter end so one thing seems for sure, expect more volatility, Whether there will be follow through is another issue as we will have to wait until a thin Friday when the US March employment report is released. This comes in a market where the focus is on the timing of a Fed rate hike, which the central bank has indicated is data dependent.

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead: Expect Volatility

Fun with Covers
dc CB 19:25 GMT 03/28/2015
He's Baaaack


dc CB 19:09 GMT 03/28/2015

Entry: The making of an Economist Target: Stop:

the transformation begins with the Mar 25 Strip.
Aiming for the top job at the FRBSF

The ascent of Wally

dc CB 19:00 GMT 03/28/2015

Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve board, smiles following her address Friday in San Francisco. Yellen touted a gradual approach to the increase of interest rates

Yellen says rate increase may be warranted later in year

So What Happened to Super-Dollar? -- March 29, 2015
Mtl JP 17:41 GMT 03/28/2015  - My Profile
GVI Forex john / re So What Happened to Super-Dollar?
At the fundamental level, to fall for and adopt FED's proposition of being hooked on some incoming data whose goal posts are forever flexible as guides for FED policy decisions is flawed at the core.

What it means is to unwittingly fall into same fog of confusion responsible for not recognizing the reasons for which their policies do not work in the real economy as peddled as stimulating consumer spending... and instead destroying purchasing power via debasing the currency, and now being peddled as "forcing" folks in a misguided theory that suggests to go out and spend it before it gets eaten up by bank deposit nega charges.

The FED and the rest of the CB crowd is unwilling to recognize that the common folk are debt saturated and that they are either unable or unwilling or both to take on more.

The zirp / nega rate policies are misguided in the measure that they aim to support the marginal folks of societies. Folks with money do not need zirp coz thy can afford to pay more.

Economic Beat: Slow Rise In Inflation Delays Fed Rate Hike
Livingston nh 17:01 GMT 03/28/2015
An interesting Saturday Fed Focus we have - watch what they do; not what they say - used to be the Fed didn't want to be the market focus on a day to day basis
How did we get here? What a difference from some years ago - we accept terms like Dual Mandate, Inflation Target, Normalization as Wisdom from the Mount rather than incomprehensible mutterings of an Oracle

Inflation is one of the most difficult economic concepts - it comes in many flavors and shows itself in different places (JP's oft asked question re: Money, Prices, Asset) - the Fed says it is trying to raise inflation but that conflicts with its actions over the past 5 years // Fed used to measure inflation by the GDP's implicit price deflator but G'span changed that in 1988 to the CPI and then again in 2000 to the PCE until PCE was restricted even further to PCE Core in 2004 -- there was usually a political element to such changes but the transcripts always show a long running wonky debate over many meetings // the PCE is very much different and even more flexible than the CPI (used by most inflation adjusted contracts, benefit plans and support agreements - try to find a lawyer that is willing to incorporate PCE in a divorce agreement, good luck!)

Then Ben showed up - his claim to fame was Inflation Target (now the dreaded 2%) that many CBs used and he wished to install at the Fed - But an official target was always anathema to non-elected policy makers - much of this was tied to the NAIRU cult (inflation and employment are joined at the hip) and one of its adherents was Janet Yellen - gradually the price stability goal of the Fed was supplanted by Ben (Mishkin was a collaborator in an 1997 NBER piece and 2001 Book INFLATION TARGETING) and became FED policy in January 2012 - But Ben assured one and all that we still had a DUAL Mandate

So now we have a target for inflation (precision without definition) and the second mandate even murkier, Full Employment - Congress in its Wisdom said 3% was the much ignored goal by every Fed, including Yellen - so we have the perfect foil for the economist heavy Fed because you can't get a numeric target for Full Employment (it's like Dark Matter or, if you prefer, Pornography, described by one Supreme Court who said he couldn't define it but he knew it when he saw it) -- the Dual Mandate language as a politically acceptable excuse for all the Fed's unconventional monetary policies was likely foisted on Ben by Janet - if you have the inclination see the FOMC Transcript from July 1996 wherein the wonkiness of Janet is on full display when she emphasizes the employment component of the mandate, tries to tie it to inflation and debates w/ G'span over Price Stability, long before Ben

Normalization - the fact that this Fed is still afraid to move at a time when interest rates are so out of touch with any other period of similar GDP, employment and inflation should be chilling to any of us involved in markets

GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT 03/28/2015  - My Profile
Cambridge Joe-

Nice to see you again. You are missed!

So What Happened to Super-Dollar? -- March 29, 2015
GVI Forex john 13:22 GMT 03/28/2015  - My Profile
The bottom line for Fed Chair Yellen's key policy speech late Friday is that the bias of the Fed is to move to normalize policy as soon as possible, but that decision is data-dependent. She warned that since inflation often arrives with a lag that the Fed may act BEFORE the Fed's inflation target is reached, but that the policy tightening will be gradual.

"To conclude, let me emphasize that in determining when to initially increase its target range for the federal funds rate and how to adjust it thereafter, the Committee's decisions will be data dependent, reflecting evolving judgments concerning the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. We cannot be certain about the underlying strength of the expansion, the maximum level of employment consistent with price stability, or the longer-run level of interest rates consistent with maximum employment. Policy must adjust as our understanding of these factors changes..."

Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives

So What Happened to Super-Dollar? -- March 29, 2015
GVI Forex john 12:41 GMT 03/28/2015  - My Profile

News Doesn't Favor a Change
There appear to be several items at work that have undermined USD strength. On March 18 the Federal Reserve removed the key word "patient" from its policy statement. However, in her press conference afterwards, Fed Chair Yellen left the markets with doubts about the future strength of the U.S. economy and a tightening policy bias after the central bank lowered its growth and inflation forecasts from earlier this year and changed the emphasis of policy to raising the inflation rate back to its target level. This means that employment is no longer its primary target and a rate hike is not imminent.

So What Happened to Super-Dollar? -- March 29, 2015

PAR 09:39 GMT 03/28/2015
If cash is no store of value . Is that not the definition of

Economic Beat: Slow Rise In Inflation Delays Fed Rate Hike
Syd 06:31 GMT 03/28/2015
When will Janet Yellen & Co. finally declare victory over inflation?

Such a victory by the central bank used to mean curbing inflation's rise. Today, it means nudging inflation high enough so that prices start increasing by 2% a year, the hurdle that inflation must overcome before the Federal Open Market Committee begins hiking the short-term interest rate from the current target of 0% to 0.25%.

As noted last week ("The Ugly Side of the Fed's Reluctance to Raise Rates," March 23), vast numbers of investors and savers are getting hurt by this punitive policy, especially senior citizens who normally park their funds in bank certificates of deposit. If the victims were to stage a mass protest in front of Yellen's office to declare their grievances, one of their placards might read: "When will your FOMC finally decide that it's seen the whites of 2% inflation's eyes?"

In fairness, 2% annually amounts to a slowing of inflation over the long run. It translates to a doubling in prices every 35 years, and, in fact, over the past 35 years, prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index have more than doubled, climbing by nearly 2.6 times. According to the better-known consumer price index, prices are 2.8 times higher than those 35 years ago.

I cite the PCE price index because Yellen herself has stated that it's the measure of choice. In recent testimony before the Senate, she was clear on this point: "The Federal Open Market Committee's 2% objective refers to the increase -- the annual increase in the total PCE price index that includes food and energy."

And in written testimony, she observed that "U.S. inflation continues to run below the committee's 2% objective," citing "the recent softness in the all-items measure of inflation for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)."

The bad news is that the PCE price index generally rises more slowly than the other index of choice, the consumer price index, as indicated by the numbers cited earlier on 35-year increases. So if Yellen had instead chosen the CPI, she would likely be able to declare victory for the 2% objective sooner than with the PCE.

That's because the CPI tracks a basket of goods and services that is generally fixed from one period to the next (at this point, based on consumer expenditure surveys for 2011 and 2012), while the PCE price index is necessarily more flexible. Designed to deflate nominal consumer spending and turn it into inflation-adjusted outlays, it must keep readjusting its weightings to reflect what consumers actually buy from one period to the next. Since consumers tend to shift from higher- to lower-priced goods and services when the opportunities present themselves, the personal consumption expenditures price index will generally rise more slowly than the consumer price index.

As Yellen has observed, "The PCE price index edged down during the fourth quarter of last year and looks to be on track to register a more significant decline this quarter because of falling consumer energy prices." Given her stated loyalty to the "all-items" PCE, it would appear that achieving the 2% target is unusually dependent on the trend in the price of energy. Weighed down by low energy prices, both the CPI and PCE have been running at around a zero rate.

But happily and not surprisingly, the Fed chair leaves herself a lot of leeway to interpret the trends according to her own lights. Since the effects of Federal Reserve policy generally take some time to be felt, changes in policy are supposed to be pre-emptive. And in that regard, Yellen specifically endorses "so-called core inflation that strips out" food and energy prices "in order to get a better forecast sometimes of the underlying trends in inflation." She even stipulates that, in order to get a handle on the future, "we look at the CPI, which is well known to most Americans."

The 12-month trend in the core consumer price index through February, released last week, ran at 1.7%, while the 12-month trend in the core personal consumption expenditures price index through January, was 1.3%; the February update on PCE will be released Monday. So bondholders take note: Based on either measure, we're more than halfway toward the 2% goal. Barron's

Cambridge Joe 06:16 GMT 03/28/2015
CB 20:52

Indeed the 'future cannot cause the past",

it is the past which causes the future !

Across aeons of time has been called 'karma' , or as ye sow, so shall ye reap, or cause and effect.

I always enjoy watching the forum when I can and especially enjoy some of the richer conversations !

Cheers !

Mtl JP 00:31 GMT 03/28/2015  - My Profile
rather what it is not .. is it inconvenient ?

yeah, keeping it in a bank account in the form of digi-chitts it is inconvenient in more ways than one.

The day that social media world makes "demand physical cash at your local bank" trending will show Yellen and her crowd what "not convenient" is.

dc CB 23:28 GMT 03/27/2015
we found it remarkable that during the Q&A after her speech today that Janet Yellen, when asked about negative rates, admitted that

"cash in not a very convenient store of value,"

Rick Santelli then sums it all up perfectly...

"deflation is clearly the boogeyman... and the only thing that will save the middle class."

Santelli Stunned As Janet Yellen Admits "Cash Is Not A Store Of Value"

dc CB 20:52 GMT 03/27/2015
from Yellen's Home FRBank this week

Leverage is risky. Purchasing assets with borrowed money can amplify small movements in prices into extraordinary gains or crippling losses, even default.

This Economic Letter explores the channels through which advanced economies have increased their debt and the consequences that this leverage has had for the business cycle.
and contains such Brilliant Insights as:

In any retrospective analysis, it is difficult to separate cause and effect. For example, sick people are more likely to take medication, but the resulting positive association between the two does not imply that medicine makes people sick.

When examining the effect of bank lending on business cycle dynamics we face a similar difficulty, which we resolve in two ways. First, we use the arrow of time—that is, the future cannot cause the past

FRBSF Economic Letter

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 20:19 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
*Geopolitical events may lead to further oil price volatility
•US payrolls expected to post another strong rise in March
•Euro area CPI data to further ease concerns of sustained deflation


Mtl JP 20:17 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
just text is 4292 words
to say what exactly ?
ah.. maybe q/a will re-clarify

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:13 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Mtl JP 20:05 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
may .. could..
at least she not not wearing an easter bunny costume
which we know is coming next week

dc CB 20:01 GMT 03/27/2015
and the D'OH award for the week goes to...JANET YELLEN

Yellen: "holding rates too low for too long could encourage inappropriate risk-taking... undermining the stability of financial markets"


Mtl JP 20:01 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
"I expect that conditions may warrant an increase in the federal funds rate target sometime this year" Yellen

or may not . duh

clearer it don't get.
desperately fighting to regain control over data being the matter that matters.

GVI Forex john 19:59 GMT 03/27/2015
Q$A after she delivers her speech.

GVI Forex john 19:57 GMT 03/27/2015
Something for the hawks and something for the doves. Bias slightly hawkish.

Short Eurusd ...relentless
KL KL 19:53 GMT 03/27/2015
TQ Yellen.... chased long eurusd to 1.0804 last night...out now 4/5 1.0927... Open other account and SAR short here.... relentless...

and covering 5/6 here 1.0894....LOL this is madness....the 15 minute wait for chaos

Now long Gold 1197.8 slowly....LOL

DYOR..>DFm..DLTm trades need to make sense....just trade

ha ha wait again eurusd to rise to near 1.0918 then whack again and again!!

have to go too busy and fast markets....LOL

GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT 03/27/2015
fed likely to raise rates this year
path likely gradual
policy data dependent
can't wait for inflation to tighten
may be valure i lettin jobs run "hot"

Mtl JP 19:46 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
pivot 1.093 hit

Mtl JP 19:46 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
pivot 1.093 hit

Mtl JP 19:43 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Res 1 1.1007
Pivot 1.0932
Sup 1 1.0811
still waiting for some catalyst for a bust out

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions
Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details
X+++++ Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

dc CB 19:29 GMT 03/27/2015
Only one release off which maybe worth trying to skin some pips:
NFP on Friday

Major Release on a day when US markets are Shut

there will be a 45 mins to trade SnP futures, with an addition 2 hours to trade FX and Treas Futures.

CME Good Fri Sched

Mtl JP 19:18 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
on what platform is german 10-yr paying +20.7% ?

GVI Forex john 19:16 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Why pension funds, etc. who cannot accept negative interest rates are buying German 10-yr.

2-yr -0.21%
5-yr -0.09%
10-yr +20.7%

yields are negative all the way out to the 8-yr

Mtl JP 19:14 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
according to Deutsche Bank strategist Torsten Slok:
Volatility is back, thanks to the Fed

“there seems to be a conflict between low liquidity in markets requiring more and more predictability and the Fed wanting to have more flexibilit. ... That is a recipe for a “volatile reaction” in fixed-income markets as investors reposition for whatever decision the Fed makes, he said. That implies that volatility will continue to trend higher, and not only in fixed income, but also foreign exchange and equities, Slok warned"
So who does and who does not like volatility ?

Mtl JP 19:07 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Only one release off which maybe worth trying to skin some pips:
NFP on Friday

GVI Forex john 18:42 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Lots of news in store next week. Rest up this weekend!

GVI Forex john 18:40 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    0:00 EZ/GB Clocks +1hr
    12:30 US PCE defl y Fed inflation target
    12:30 US Per Income Consumre spending power
    13:00 DE fl HICP yy ECB targets inflation
    14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Sales
    8:55 DE Jobless Employment data
    9:30 GB GDP QQ widest measure of economy
    10:00 EZ flash HICP y ECB targets inflation
    10:00 EZ fl core HICP y m ECB targets inflation
    12:30 CA GDP mm widest measure of economy
    13:45 US Chicago PMI construction
    14:00 US CB Cons Confidence Latest view on economy
    23:50 AU MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    23:50 JP Tankan Latest view on economy
    1:00 CN NBS PMI Latest view on economy
    1:35 JP final PMI Latest view on economy
    1:45 CN HSBC final PMI Latest view on economy
    7:30 CH PMI Latest view on economy
    8:50 FR MKT PMI Lastest view on economy
    8:55 DE final MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    8:58 EZ MKT PMI Latest view on economy
    9:28 GB Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    12:15 US ADP JOBs Employment data
    13:30 CA RBC-Markit PMI Latest view on economy
    13:45 US final MKT MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    14:00 US Construction Spend Latest view on economy
    14:00 US ISM MFG PMI building
    14:30 US EIA Crude mn price predictor
    0:30 AU Trade A$bln external economy
    7:00 DE Retail Sales mm consumer demand measure
    9:28 GB Construct PMI Latest view on economy
    12:30 CA Trade C$bn external economy
    12:30 US Weekly Jobless late viewon jobs
    12:30 US Trade external Accunts
    13:00 USFRB Yellen sppec
    13:30 EZ ECB Minutes speech
    14:00 US Factory Orders future production
    0:00 AU Holiday
    0:00 CA Holiday
    0:00 CH Holiday
    0:00 EZ Holiday
    0:00 GB Holiday
    0:00 NZ Holiday
    0:00 US Early Close
    12:30 US Unemployment % unemployment rate
    12:30 US Payrolls Key Jobs data
    13:45 US final MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
in round round numbers at 1.09 euro waiting for catalyst to break uP N of 1.1050 or Down S of 1.08

gc sf 18:30 GMT 03/27/2015
"The iron ore price in China has gone down about four per cent today, so that's also the reason by the Australian dollar is also down for the session."

BT Update
gc sf 17:46 GMT 03/27/2015
obviously much earlier

MS s/l triggered in AUD .. 7690 long closed @ 7800 +110

BT Update
gc sf 17:41 GMT 03/27/2015
MS closed $CHF short @9584 +326
MS closed EUR long @1.0920 +210

MS - $YEN 119.20 target 115.50 s/l 120.00 (open)
MS - EUR 1.0920 target 1.0500 s/l 1.1060 (open)

- GBP 1.5000 sl 1.5100 tp 1.4500
+ $CAD 1.2200 sl 1.2100 tp 1.2800

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:37 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
according to MarketWatch:
"Ahead of the start of earnings reporting season, which unofficially kicks off when Alcoa Inc. AA, -1.09% reports results on April 8, about 84% of the companies that have provided first-quarter outlooks gave negative outlooks. That’s above the 81% that warned Q1 2014, and the five-year average of 68%."

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:33 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
CB 16:29 in my earlier life of stock peddling, your bias would be called patriotic

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:05 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
down to 1048 rigs, down -21 from last count, down -761y/y

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 16:53 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Baker Hughes oil rig count should be hitting the wires around top of the hour

AUD - why the selling now?
Sydney ACC 16:51 GMT 03/27/2015
Chevron also sold their 50% share of Caltex for AUD 4.65 billion.

Global Markets News
london red 16:49 GMT 03/27/2015
spoos options dont seem to have much premium built in for yellen. euro fx on the other hand, still looking for half a point from here which is plenty abv average for this time of day, so they might be expecting some even if stox arent.

london red 16:30 GMT 03/27/2015
fine looking wick on hourly candle, almost worth holding onto to. but bias seems higher and not sure it goes under 1.09.

Next Page


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