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FOREX FORUM
22/07/14 20:30 C US API Energy con: n/a pre: n/a
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European Debt
PAR 17:32 GMT 07/22/2014
Despite record low interest rates peripheral european sovereign debt keeps exploding .

Greece +13% y/y to 174 % of GDP

Italy +5,8 % y/y to 135,6% of GDP

Portugal +5,4 % y/y to 132,9 % of GDP

The whole austerity experiment is again spinning out of control despite Draghi's € trillions money printing .

Who is finally going to pay the bill or is Europe becoming another Weimar republic .

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 17:02 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
10-yr now 2.476% DJIA holding.

U.S. FAA
GVI Forex john 16:49 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
FAA, theU.S. airline regulatory Authority, just prohibited U.S. airlines from flying to Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) for at least the the next 24 hours. Concern about rocket attacks.

So much for the Risk on trade? Markets have to worry if there is something new afoot?

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GOT PK 16:27 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
thanks john.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 16:19 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.487%.

2.50% back in sight as risk-off trade fades. It might be that short EURUSD has become the "risk-on" trade?

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 16:13 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
PK- Its not so obvious on the dailies, but recently we stabilized (died) first for a couple of weeks above 1.3600 then we had the same price behavior above 1.3500. Yesterday we traded a 15 pip range above 1.3500. I was just extrapolating and suggesting we could do the same thing above 1.3400 before going for 1.3300 next.

This has a very suspicious feel to me like someone is trying to manage an orderly decline in EURUSD. We know the ECB wants the EURUSD lower, so they would be my number one suspect.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:50 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Tame inflation and very good June housing data has added to the strong momentum seen in European trading, sending the S&P500 to within points of all-time highs this morning.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Good Housing and CPI Data Fuel Risk Appetite


Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GOT PK 15:50 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
john - "1.3420 or so....". am I missing something? canīt see this as support level. care to elaborate? cheers.

GVI Forex Blog 15:46 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
July 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 23. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, EZ- Consumer Confidence, CA- Retail Sales US- Weekly Crude

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 23, 2014


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 15:39 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile


July 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 23. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, EZ- Consumer Confidence, CA- Retail Sales US- Weekly Crude
  • Far East: AU- CPI.
  • Europe: GB- BOE Minutes, CBI Distributive Trades, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: CA- Retail Sales US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude.



Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:37 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
On Tuesday, the markets are backing away from a defensive risk-off to a risk-on status as worries about  Ukraine and Israel fade. Traders do not see strong President Obama action. Firm action would be a surprise.. U.S, and Eurozone yields and shares are rising A weak EURUSD is risk-on..


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are rising after having fallen sharply last week .Yields on the European periphery are up.The German 10-yr bund is 1.18%, +4bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.59%  +2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.49%,  +1bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are closing up. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Now that we are through EURUSD 1.3500, do we now work our way down to 1.3400 and then stabilize at 1.3420 or so for a week or so before we trade down into the 1.3300's?

EUR is fundamentally weak and the ECB does not mind seeing it fall. This is an unsatisfying move because the USD is seriously flawed. Note I said "flawed", not weak.

S&P New Record High
Paris ib 15:08 GMT 07/22/2014
Looks like we're going for 2000.

June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Note in chart how pending homes sales data (we lag it by one month) predicts Existing homes sales in the following month.

Anecdotally, we have been hearing that housing has been slowing. We would like to see that in the DATA first. Housing starts have been slowing, but Existing Homes sales is by far the most important housing number.

buy euro
Amman wfakhoury 14:18 GMT 07/22/2014
London Chris 10:32 GMT 07/22/2014
Amman is your eurusd buy signal still valid or have you seen the light of the downside?
Reply
___________________________________
13497 and 13458 were both confirmed today , price will start go up unless 1 hr bar closed below 13458.
gap still active , it takes more time than confirmed level.

June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
hk ab 14:18 GMT 07/22/2014
They all go to the Chinese and other foreigners' hands....

June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Recovery in housing market continues.



June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
5.040 vs. 4.990 exp. vs. 4.890 (r 4.910) prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources



U.S. July 2014 Richmond Fed Index
GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
+7 vs. +5 exp. vs. +3 prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:48 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
FWIW, post-CPI bounce high was around 1.3495.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:35 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
As I posted on GVI Forex

Mission accomplished with stops taken out below 1.3475. Pause above 1.3450 saw offsets take over and push USD down elsewhere. Res 1.3490-00.

GVI Forex


Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
red - Many thanks - john

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 12:58 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.471% -1bp

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
london red 12:57 GMT 07/22/2014
john, talk all morning was of higher cpi. look at the big swissie order this morning from 80. market talked itself into a higher number. question now is whether disappointment is contained or we run dollar downside stops. not sure there is enough to flip the dollar today, but its certainly going find make new highs difficult now.

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Not sure why the USDJPY falls on CPI data? Perhaps its coincidental or maybe view is that Pressure on Fed to tighten eases slightly.

Wide divergence post-data between S&P futures and USDJPY.

June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
london red 12:52 GMT 07/22/2014
data roughly inline to soft, but clearly market anticipated better. dollar weakness best seen in currencies in jpy aud and nzd. eur and gbp to follow. eur should be capped by 13520 and cable 171.

June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
U.S. May CPI mixed picture. Fed Targets PCE due later this month...


June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Mixed CPI data headline rises slightly and core CPI falls.

June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
Headline:
m/m: + 0.3% vs. +0.30% exp. v +0.40% pre
y/y: +2.10% vs. +2.10% exp. v +2.10% pre
Core:
m/m: +0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. v +0.30% pre
y/y: +1.90% vs. +2.00% exp. v +2.00% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


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Observations
London Misha 12:24 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD - Indecisive Spinning Top on Daily Chart but today breaches key 50% Fib 1.3489 & tests 2014 lows. All MAs now turned down!
GBPUSD - 4th Black Crow on Daily Chart, continues testing 2009 high at 1.7042 and its topping action (possible Double Top?) since late Jun!
EURGBP - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart but a lower high with continued overhead resistance from the Centre Tine of the recent AP.
USDJPY - Bullish Dragonfly Doji on Daily Chart as continues bounce up off 101.17 Fib support. MA resistance overhead still 101.82-102.09.
AUDUSD - No follow through on Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart as fails again to breach Downtrend. However, breaches it today & also possible KR today!
USDINR - Island Spike Up has its Gap filled and now rests upon Upper Tine of Apr-Jun SP on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - 2nd Black Crow as follows on Bearish Matching on Daily Chart & 2nd close below Lower Tine of Sep13-May14 AP> Nears MA combo support 10.5795-10.5370.
USDBRL - 2nd Black Crow as follows on to Pipe Top formation on Daily Chart. Still within support band 2.2075-2.2265!
USDRUB - Doji - possibly bullish but also possible small Bearish Harami on Daily Chart. Today drops (so far) through key 50% Fib at 35.1394 & Medium MA at 35.0958.




EUR Heat Map
london red 12:08 GMT 07/22/2014
whiff in the air of cpi beat, certainly in line with morning dollar move. an flation beat particularly on the core side should take us through stops under 70 on the euro. barrier at 50 is likely to be well defended and hold at least til the options cut this afternoon. an inflation miss is likely to have us retrace slightly but plenty of sellers now lined up ahead of 135 and to 13520.
cable may suffer too on an inflation beat, although dip buying should turn out profitable ahead of the minutes tomorrow morning. support at 37 likely to give on a cpi beat, but further support at 25, 15 and if those are taken ultimately 16993 should hold into tomorrow. on the upside there is the 75 fib and further es at 171.
usdjpy. as night follows night, pair rebounded from lows and now not far from res at 80/90. further at 102/102.20, but unlikely to be breached unless cpi is a real upside surprise.
also today are real earnings, out at the same time as cpi. any kind of increase is likely to be jumped on by rate hawks (exp. 0.0%).

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
London Chris 12:06 GMT 07/22/2014
Is anyone betting on a breakout?

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:37 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile


Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

We are all looking at the same 1.3475 level.

Send me an EMAIL to get access to my video updates on a regular basis

Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:04 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
When and why is addressed in this article

Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower


EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly lower. Spot to 20-day averages are mostly negative, except vs. AUD.


buy euro
London Chris 10:32 GMT 07/22/2014
Amman is your eurusd buy signal still valid or have you seen the light of the downside?

buy euro
nw kw 10:27 GMT 07/22/2014
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)
Medium
1.38B 2.78B 2.85B

AceTrader Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 10:05 GMT 07/22/2014


[B]
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

22 Jul 2014[/B] 08:58 GMT

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- .... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3530 in Asian morning n weakened ahead of European open. Intra-day decline accelerated in early European morning n price fell below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 to 1.3480 on broad-based selling of euro. Offers are now seen at 1.3500/05 and more above at 1.3515/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3460/70, suggesting selling on recovery is favored.


Earlier in the Asian morning opening today saw the single currency moved sideways below yesterday's high of 1.3549 but with a soft bias due to ongoing market sentiments that the ECB has room to loosen policy while the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down stimulus tools this year n hike interest rates in 2015.
There are zero economic data to be released fm EZ today, therefore, euro should closely followed the move with other usd/majors.
Range trading below y'day's high of 1.3549 is likely to continue ahead of European open as market eyes on events unfolding in Ukraine and Gaza whilst stops located just below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 are in focus.
At the moment, offers from various accounts was noted at 1.3535/40 n then 1.3545/50 with mixture of offers n stops located above 1.3570.
On the downside, bids were placed at 1.3515/10 and around 1.3500.


....................
....................

July 2014 UK CBI Output Trends
GVI Forex john 10:02 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



-- NEWS ALERT --

+26 vs.+7 exp. vs. +32 prev.


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Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:01 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
The EUR/USD continued to exhort pressure on the downside as it probed the lower end of its 7-week range. EU foreign ministers debated about more sanctions against Russia was one factor in its price action. Significant stops said to be building below the 1.3477 area which would mark a fresh 2014 low

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: EU leaders debate whether further sanctions are needed on Russia


Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 10:00 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
US futures looking to open UP

Business as usual
PAR 09:49 GMT 07/22/2014
Italian gross government debt hit 135.6% of GDP in March, up 5.8% over a year earlier.

Portugal gross sovereign debt at 132.9% GDP in Match, up 5.4% over a year earlier. Unsustainable.

Risk-Off Posture Fading. The EURUSD Breaks below 1.3500. Active U.S. Calendar
GVI Forex Blog 09:32 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- CPI, Existing Home Sales

The economic calendar for the week starts today with key U.S. CPI data and Existing Homes Sales. On Wednesday Australia quarterly CPI data and Canadian Retail Sales data are due.

Risk-Off Posture Fading. The EURUSD Breaks below 1.3500. Active U.S. Calendar


Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 09:25 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile

Early Tuesday, the markets are backing a way modestly from risk-off to a more neutral posture. It would be a stretch to call it "Risk-on". U,S, and Eurozone yields remain at depressed levels and a snap back to previous levels is always a possibility. EURUSD has broken 1.3500.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly steady after having fallen sharply last week . Yields on the European periphery are mixed.The German 10-yr bund is 1.16%, +2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.59%  +2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  0bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Business as usual
PAR 09:13 GMT 07/22/2014
Greek public debt rockets 13.5% Y/Y in Q1 to 174.1% of GDP, Slovenia's public debt stock up 23.9% to 78.7% of GDP

buy euro
Mtl JP 08:28 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
euro 3 StdD off the 20dma at 1.3461

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:24 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD Seems Like a buy here for 50 pips at least

euro
london red 08:18 GMT 07/22/2014
stops below last weeks low positioned under 90 look at risk but 75/80 should hold into this afternoons cpi, for which expectations arent high, so reason to chase euro lower arent that great.
cable may get dragged a little lower, worth using dips to buy into minutes tomorrow morning, particularly after cpi risk is out of way. minutes may be otherwise, but market expects hawkish. reality may be different but that move happens after the relase, until then market will buy cable dips.

Russia
PAR 08:09 GMT 07/22/2014
Russian stock market moving higher as tensions over Ukraine decline .

AceTrader Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views NZD/USD AUD/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:57 GMT 07/22/2014


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

22 Jul 2014 05:00GMT

NZD/USD - 0.8678... RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer said, quote:
'Reserve Bank of New Zealand to review prudential rules for banks, non-bank lenders;
review to "thin stock" of current regulation, won't be 'a severe pruning'; banking review to take 12 months, may remove redundant rules, simplify framework;
review will not include rules covering insurance sector; key planks such as capital adequacy, liquidity, risk management, governance not in review.'


AUD/USD - Earlier Statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens continues to speak and said "markets remarkably sanguine on geopolitics up to now.
'low rates are doing the things they usually do; doing all that could reasonably be expected at moment, content for now; if policy could reasonably do more, would consider it.'
He began his statement, quote:
"hard to say how successful qe has been globally";
"subdued 'animal spirits' likely one reason for slow economic recoveries";
" is sure spirits will improve at some point, G20 growth agenda could help".

Stevens makes no comments on domestic monetary policy & A$ in his speech. Aud briefly bounced to intra-day high of 0.9395 as st specs sold aussie ahead of Stevens' speech n quickly covered their shorts after his speech did not mention the A$.


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