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28/07/14 13:45 B US fl Svc MKT PMI con: 61 pre: 61.2
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Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 07:46 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
Can not do Hang Sing Now

is more Like 2 O'clock Trend

Week Close

USDCAD 1.095 1.067

Oil is a sell
Oil 102.220 94.280

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 07:36 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
I can not get the data now
will do it soon
something is stuck

Day's Trades
nw kw 07:08 GMT 07/28/2014
KaL - do you have time line tks, I have compounded H SING up move for 6days, what do you see next tks

do yoy see usd/cad to 1.00 bigger time from herring this call

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 06:45 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
friday close P.I
I am just gonna order GTC
on these Levels and trends

EUR/USD 1.3550 1.3295 Sell
XAU/USD 1324 1249 Sell
GBP/USD 1.7121 1.6837 Sell
EUR/JPY 137.71 134.81 Sell
USD/JPY 102.23 100.77 Buy
GBP/JPY 173.75 170.46 Sell
AUD/JPY 95.67 93.47 Sell
CHF/JPY 113.31 110.89 Sell
GBP/CHF 1.5571 1.5250 Buy
AUD/USD 0.9452 0.9255 Sell
EUR/AUD 1.4626 1.4182 Buy
EUR/GBP 0.7984 0.7834 Sell
NZD/USD 0.8626 0.8381 Sell
CAD/JPY 95.56 93.06 Sell
GBP/AUD 1.8404 1.7877 Sell
NZD/JPY 87.30 85.35 Sell
AUD/CHF 0.8563 0.8301 Sell
EUR/NZD 1.6013 1.5554 Buy
NAS100 4046 3894 Buy
XPT/USD 1542 1443 Buy

Syd 04:35 GMT 07/28/2014
(US) Fed's Fisher (FOMC voter, hawk) writes and reiterates that there are dangers in leaving policy too loose for too long - US financial press- Suggests there is risk the Fed could start to be behind the curve amid the improvements in the US labor market and rise in inflation. - Reiterates the Fed is closer to reaching its targets for employment than most people believe. Says the household survey unemployment rate has hit near 6% before many FOMC officials expected. - Says wage growth is starting to rebound, cites the rise in the median weekly earnings index of the Current Population Survey. - In terms of inflation, says PCE Inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target more quickly than the FOMC expected. - Reiterates concerns related to financial excesses. - Notes the risk in tightening policy after the economy has already moved past sustainably capacity limits. - Says the Fed should consider tapering the reinvestment of maturing securities and start to shrink the balance sheet, as he believes ending asset purchases during the fall will not be ample. - Source

GVI Forex Blog 04:34 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi +0.5%, Shanghai Composite +1.6%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,969 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - A Asian Market Update: Improvement in industrial profits sends Shanghai Composite to 7-month high***Economic Data*** >- (CN) CHINA JUN INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: 17.9% V 8.9% PRIOR; YTD Y/

GVI Forex Blog 04:16 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
The US market corrected not on geopolitical concerns

Morning Briefing : 28-Jul-2014 -0415 GMT

AceTrader Jul 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News,Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:01 GMT 07/28/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

28 Jul 2014 02:43GMT

USD/JPY - .... The greenback continues to trade with a soft bias in Tokyo this morning after cross-inspired retreat from Friday's 2-week peak at 101.94 to 101.72 in NY as weekend's events in Russia-Ukraine n Middle East boosted yen demand at Tokyo open (eur/yen weakened 1 tick below Fri's 136.65 low).

Expect range trading to continue in Asia until European open, however, as the N225 index has shrugged off initial loss after Fri's decline in the Dow n has climbed to a fresh 6-month peak of 15.556, suggesting buying on dips is favoured. Later today, investors should pay attention to the release of Markit service PMI for U.S. n U.S. pending home sales data due at 13:45GMT n 14:00GMT respectively.

At the moment, offers are noted at 101.90-00 n around 102.10 with stops emerging above 102.30. On the downside, bids are placed at 101.50-40 n then 101.30/25 with stops located below 101.20.

Next week will see the release of U.S. Markit Services PMI Flash, pending Homes Index and pending sales change on Monday; Japan’s unemployment rate and retail sales, Australian HIA home sales, Germany import prices, U.S.

Redbook and consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Japan’s industrial output, industrial production forecast, Swiss KOF indicator, Eurozone business climate, economic and services sentiment, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.S. ADP employment, Canada’s producer prices, U.S. GDP and FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.

U.K. GfK consumer confidence, Australia’s building approvals and private home approval, Japan’s housing start and construction orders, Germany’s unemployment rate, Canada’s GDP and U.S. Challenger layoffs and Chicago PMI on Thursday.

China’s NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia’s PPI, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI final, U.S. unemployment rate, Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, PCE price index, private payrolls and non-farm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday.

Commitment of Traders Report
dc CB 01:07 GMT 07/28/2014
also Auctions this week 2,5,7.

29, 35, 29 billion $, respectively

DXY over 81 makes the low yield offered even dearer to the foreign buyer.

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:24 GMT 07/28/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index holding near a six-month peak

* Euro wallows at an eight-month trough vs USD

* FOMC, U.S. GDP and nonfarm payrolls main focus this week

FOREX-Market takes a shine to the dollar, shuns euro

Commitment of Traders Report
Mtl JP 23:54 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
I am pretty sure the net short euro (not just long reduction but also short buildup) is at , if not, near 52 week high. which may or not mean anything, but odds are growing of some unwind: always on the look out for lopsided positionning

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
dc CB 22:52 GMT 07/27/2014
they were taken by Mr. Magoo

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
Mtl JP 22:39 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
dc CB / even the Washingtonpost poohpohs them as "grainy photographs" ...

The Times, they are a changin'
dc CB 21:49 GMT 07/27/2014
Yes, we can — bring back talk of hope and change.

Obama’s new approach: Keep ‘hope and change’ alive

U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:48 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
This is our

July Newsletter

Commitment of Traders Report
dc CB 16:31 GMT 07/27/2014
Mtl JP 22:21 GMT July 25, 2014 -
Commitment of Traders Report
john 19:44 that short euro build looks massive

makes you wonder, since this is the last week in July and August is Vacation time for Europe and the US, whether Gammy Yellen's crew will put something in the statement that triggers a "Take Profits and head to the yacht and the beach" move.

COT with "sides" on the trade

COT EC futures

The Times, they are a chnagin'
dc CB 16:22 GMT 07/27/2014
Mark Knoller ✔ @markknoller

Pres Obama played about 5 hrs of golf at Congressional and then returned to the WH.
7:35 PM - 26 Jul 2014

(CBS News White House Correspondent. Washington, D.C..)

U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:20 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
You can't use past history as central banks have rewritten the book.

Read my last newsletter for what to watch out for.

The Times, they are a changin'
dc CB 16:19 GMT 07/27/2014
Repeal Prohibition, Again

The federal government should repeal the ban on marijuana.

We reached that conclusion after a great deal of discussion among the members of The Times’s Editorial Board, inspired by a rapidly growing movement among the states to reform marijuana laws.


U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds
sofia kaprikorn 14:57 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
GVI Forex john

If I may ask when it becomes obvious for the market that the Fed is behind the curve and needs to tighten?

Asking you to share your view based on the experience you have from the previous tightening cycles. TIA.

U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds
GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
JP- You can never know if the markets have it "right". That is why we focus on "High Impact" data releases. They are high impact releases because they can CHANGE the outlook for monetary policy. By correctly anticipating how the OUTLOOK for policy is going to be impacted by a data event, you can get a jump on the markets. this is what trading on the "fundamentals" is all about. Personally, I think you cannot trade on the fundamentals alone. The technicals are indispensable for proper trade execution once you figure out how you want to position yourself.

Eurozone 2y vs ECB refi rate
sofia kaprikorn 14:18 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
GVI john

Great chart reg. EUR/USD vs. 2Y EZ rate - a picture is worth a thousand words.

Markets setting up for Fed Decision and U.S. Employment data.
GVI Forex Blog 14:15 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt SVC PMI, Pending Home Sales

Monday sees the U.S. flash Markit Service PMI estimate and Pending Homes Sales. These data will set the stage for an exceptionally full week of high impact news releases..

Markets setting up for Fed Decision and U.S. Employment data.

U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds
Mtl JP 14:07 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
john how do we know when the players have it all fully priced in, or more importantly not, and therefor spot a potential trade opportunity as a "catch up" trade ?

Commitment of Traders Report
nw kw 13:57 GMT 07/27/2014
bond cot has open interest spike see if it reverses looks crowded

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile

July 27, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt SVC PMI, Pending Home Sales
  • Far East: JP- Unemployment, Retail Sales.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- flash Markit Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales, 2-yr Auction.

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile

U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds
GVI Forex john 11:13 GMT 07/27/2014  - My Profile
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART:

Here is a further explanation of the chart below for the current state of the U.S, money markets ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. I have not included a currency pair.

The cost of money is interest rates. higher interest rates increase demand for a given currency and lower interest rates mean reduced demand.

There are two interest rate lines. The RED dashed line is the official Fed administered cost of overnight funds (Fed Funds). It does not change frequently. The other RED line is the free market cost of funds for two years. The market two year rate amounts to a forecast for the official administered rate for the next two years.

When it is below the official rate, depositors and lenders are saying that they expect the official rate is going to fall. If the market rate is above the official rate, it means they agree that oficial rates are going to rise.

This chart says that professional traders agree that the FED is going to increase rates sometime in the near future. Rising interest rates should be EURUSD positive.

So you can see that rational traders have ALREADY tightened monetary policy FOR the Fed. The cost of money in the two year time frame is already higher. A Fed rate hike now would only confirm what the markets already have discounted. This is how the wholesale markets for money have always operated. They MUST operate this way if the institutions are going to survive.

Eurozone 2y vs ECB refi rate
GVI Forex john 21:59 GMT 07/26/2014  - My Profile
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART:

Some have asked me to re-explain this chart

It consists of two elements; interest rates and EURUSD spot.

1) interest rates: forex is all about MONEY. The cost of money is interest rates. higher interest rates increase demand for a given currency and lower interest rates mean reduced demand.

There are two interest rate lines. The blue dashed line is the official ECB administered cost of overnight funds. It does not change frequently. The other blue line is the free market cost of funds for two years. The market two year rate amounts to a forecast for the official administered rate for the next two years.

When it is below the official rate, depositors and lenders are saying that they expect the official rate is going to fall. If the market rate is above the official rate, it means they agree that rates are going to rise.

This chart says that professional traders agree that the ECB is going to reduce rates in the future. falling interest rates are EURUSD negative.

2) EURUSD line. The grey EURUSD line shows the interaction of the EURUSD pair with rises and falls in EUR interest rates. Moves are not always as fast as they once were, but they generally move together. Note the EURUSD has been following interest rates lower, This is how the fundamentals determine forex values.

Montreal Hesham 21:58 GMT 07/26/2014
Entry: 1.0639 Target: 1.08 and higher Stop: 1.05

I will add more on dips

I closed 1/4 at 1.0735 and the rest at the previously mentioned targets.
I raised the stop loss to be at 1.065.

It is sunny today in Montreal. I will go to the swimming pool

Have a nice week end to all.
The second target was achieved on Friday (1/4 of the position)
Now, the target is 1.15 and the s/l is raised to 1.076

I may buy again if the market hits my s/l

Hot Items: Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 15:46 GMT 07/26/2014  - My Profile
US Pending Homes
TRY TRY 2-yr
US CB Consumer Conf
TRY TRY 5-yr
US GDP 1Q14r
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRB Fed Rates
DE unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
CH Holiday
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
US U Mich final

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
dc CB 14:27 GMT 07/26/2014
The Pentagon warned of an “imminent” delivery from Russia of sophisticated and powerful rocket launchers to pro-Russia separatists fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the United States of conducting a “smear campaign” against Russia with “unsubstantiated public insinuations.” It said the United States had supported “a coup d’etat in Kiev, and then in fact urged the regime toward the brutal massacre of the Russian-speaking population.

Russia, Ukraine trade accusations of cross-border shelling

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
dc CB 14:10 GMT 07/26/2014
Resource scarcity, competition to dominate Eurasian energy corridors, are behind Russian militarism and US interference
Dr.Nafeez Ahmed

Ukraine crisis is about Great Power oil, gas pipeline rivalry

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
dc CB 13:51 GMT 07/26/2014
The people of Slavyansk, which is located in the heart of the Yzovka shale gas field, staged numerous protest actions in the past against its development

Countries like the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and France have given up plans to develop shale gas deposits in their territories.

In May 2012, Ukraine’s State Service for Geology and Mineral Resources announced a tender for the right to develop the Yuzovka shale gas deposit that was won by British-Dutch Shell.

Burisma, Ukraine’s oil and gas production holdings, also has the right to develop the shale gas fields in the Dnieper-Donetsk basin of Eastern Ukraine.

A son of U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden has recently become a member of Burisma’s board of directors.

Ukrainian army helps installing shale gas production equipment near Slavyansk

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
Mtl JP 13:16 GMT 07/26/2014  - My Profile
Rather than backing down ... according to some David Herszenhorn and Peter Baker. Right, they write for New York Times.

FOMC and Monthly Jobs Due: Outlook- July 27, 2014
GVI Forex john 13:13 GMT 07/26/2014  - My Profile

Fed Policy Path is Set
It hard to believe that we are back to focusing on another Fed meeting this week. There is always the possibility of a surprise but it will take time before the Fed can even consider raising short term interest rates and we see no reason why the central bank should not be able to meet its scheduled October end to its asset purchase program.

Full Outlook

Knowledge is Power
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:18 GMT 07/26/2014  - My Profile
We posted some great articles this past week with unique insights you might not find elsewhere. Remember, knowledge is power!.

- FOMC and Monthly Jobs Due - Outlook - July 27, 2014
- Last Gasp Reversal: Another Secret Forex Trading Pattern Revealed
- EXCLUSIVE: If You Trade or Plan to Trade the GBP, You Need This Indicator
- Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower
- EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch, 400% Forex Broker Bonus Offer

CLICK to READ NOW - Knowledge is Power

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
GVI Forex 01:25 GMT 07/26/2014  - My Profile
KIEV, Ukraine — Rather than backing down after last week’s downing of a civilian passenger jet, Russia appears to be intervening more aggressively in the war in eastern Ukraine in what American and Ukrainian officials call a dangerous escalation that will almost certainly force more robust retaliation from the United States and Europe.

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

Commitment of Traders Report
Mtl JP 22:21 GMT 07/25/2014  - My Profile
john 19:44 that short euro build looks massive

makes me think it probably equates or comes close to the sentiment buildup level of Sep 2012 which inspired Mario bazooka believe me it will be enough yikyak.

how times change <<-sigh->>

this is not from the Onion
Mtl JP 21:47 GMT 07/25/2014  - My Profile
dc CB / I am from the government and I here to help / save you

CFPB Begins Accepting Consumer Complaints on Prepaid Cards and Additional Nonbank Products - CFPB
just do not bring up the Dimon / Blankfein / Paulson / Corzine / Mozilo (just to name a few) god's workers
It never ceases to amaze me how adept the govt bureaucrats are justifying their bureaucracy, how to grow/expand it and how to assure their own jobs and pensions.

EU edges to economic sanctions on Russia but narrows scope
GVI Forex 21:02 GMT 07/25/2014  - My Profile
(Reuters) - The European Union reached outline agreement on Friday to impose the first economic sanctions on Russia over its behavior in Ukraine but scaled back their scope to exclude technology for the crucial gas sector.

EU edges to economic sanctions on Russia but narrows scope

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:59 GMT 07/25/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Brocker list
Dillon AL 19:57 GMT 07/25/2014  - My Profile
You will see above the tab for Brokers.

Broker review page

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT 07/25/2014  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Week Ahead
london red 19:33 GMT 07/25/2014
wednesday gets US gdp thursday gets canadian gdp. potentially a lot of pips to play for here.

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 19:15 GMT 07/25/2014  - My Profile
•No surprises expected from FOMC; prelim US Q2 GDP and July payrolls stand out

•Euro area CPI inflation may have fallen below 0.5% in July

•July surveys to provide early clues about UK Q3 GDP momentum


Next Page

Must Read Articles

FOMC and Monthly Jobs Due: Outlook- July 27, 2014

Last Gasp Reversal: Another Secret Trading Pattern Revealed

EXCLUSIVE: If You Trade or Plan to Trade the GBP, You Need This Indicator

Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower

EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch. 400% Broker Bonus Offer Exposed.

Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?

                           ADDITIONAL Articles..

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