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06/07/15 6:00 B DE Factory Ord yy con: 3.70% pre: 0.40%
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Mtl JP 19:18 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
why would , in a yes/no referendum , margin matter: what would it influence 50%+1 is makes it a winner take all ?

Chennai AMI 19:12 GMT 07/05/2015
Misha: Your observation on AUDUSD please. how will be the opening bell.

GVI Data Calendar for 6 July 2015
GVI Forex Blog 19:11 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile

July 5, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 6, 2015. Trading News Calendar


  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders
  • North America: US- PMIs, CA- Ivey PMI, COT Report

GVI Data Calendar for 6 July 2015

London Misha 19:09 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
Greek Referendum - hearing 61% voted NO with over 55% counted - Market open just over 5 minutes - EURUSD indic 1.0986/89 -0.119

Mtl JP 19:08 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
and USDJPY 121.50 and lower
and gbpusd sub 1.58

Israel Dil 19:07 GMT 07/05/2015
this summer and part of the coming fall to provide great entry points for some 3-5-7-10 years investments. Oil at 30's is a given.

the Dalai Lama is happy, George Soros's daughter to gain few more billions for his theme........ China's market about to serve the Dalai Lama

NY JM 19:07 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
Only uncertainty is the margin for NO

london red 19:07 GMT 07/05/2015
euro. youve got the previous low at 10818 then a channel line taken off the inverse shs neck at about 10797 mondays trades. lower channel of daily/monthly triangle at 10683/93 this will not be beaten in terms of greece, until us rate drive begins in earnest. another european factor outside of greece would be required to break this triangle for a test of parity without help from us side of equation.

Mtl JP 18:59 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
IF a NO --->>> euro should see 1.08 , possibly lower

But First!
dc CB 18:55 GMT 07/05/2015
“This is probably the most public and obvious instance where the government’s omnipotence has been challenged,” said Victor Shih, an associate professor at the University of California, San Diego who studies the politics of financial policy making in China. “I think the last couple of weeks really showed that, no, they do not have the ability to make anything happen.”

“While turmoil in Greece has added to investor jitters of late, China’s stock market slide could prove ultimately more damaging for the global economy,” said Frederic Neumann, the co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC.

Investors with heavy losses include He Wuhong, a Beijing middle school teacher and mother of a toddler. She and her husband invested nearly all of their $65,000 in savings in China’s stock market in late April and early May, only to see their account’s value fall by almost half in recent days. She cannot even sell her shares, because their prices fall 10 percent each morning, resulting in an automatic suspension of trading for the rest of the day.

Ms. He is lucky in one way: Unlike many other investors, she did not borrow money to buy stocks. A ninefold increase in so-called margin lending by brokerage firms over the past two years helped fuel the rally. Many families borrowed money from banks, finance companies, neighbors and others to play the market. Loans were made at annual interest rates of as much as 20 percent, with borrowers allowed to put little of their own money into stock market investments.

China’s Market Rout Is a Double Threat

london red 18:52 GMT 07/05/2015
we have been done here for a while but with 50% now counted and no narrowing of margin, its a question of what europe does now. either they do another debt haircur with terms or let greece go.

GVI Forex 18:41 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
With more than a third of votes counted, results from the Greek referendum suggest voters have rejected the terms of an international bailout.

Results published by the interior ministry showed about 60% of those whose ballots had been counted voting "No", against some 40% voting "Yes".


London Misha 18:39 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
Early PREMARKET indications - EURUSD 1.0970/75 (down 0.0125), USDJPY 121.90/00 (down 0.90)

NO, means more dignity and pride(Tsipi.).
HK RF@ 18:33 GMT 07/05/2015

What is more of dignity and pride, if more Greeks will look for food in public trash cans in the coming days.

This Tsipi. the snake charmer, is now trying to sell high grade opium to the masses. Hahaha

But First!
dc CB 18:28 GMT 07/05/2015


dc CB 18:26 GMT 07/05/2015
more or less Live updates on vote

Ministry of Interior

Referendum July 2015

london red 18:21 GMT 07/05/2015
after more than a third of votes counted no 61% no 38% rest invalid

PAR 18:10 GMT 07/05/2015
It ain't over till its over

Prague JIT 18:04 GMT 07/05/2015
First info is high NO

Distant orders
Prague JIT 17:47 GMT 07/05/2015
Good afternoon, saw wide spreads on eur/usd 1,1062 bid. Now 1,1100. I have just placed odas on all possible eur pairs, very distant from here. On sell and buy side. Unique moment. I have not seen this last 20 y. Be quick tonight. Game starts in 15 min. We can see down-and-up-gap before 21gmt. I am sure even Mario is in service. gl to all. :-)

Greek Polls
Israel Dil 17:40 GMT 07/05/2015
sub 1.09 will print before us session. add the Chinese panic gene and parity this summer is here

the most remarkable comment is from Hollande "a NO does not mean we stop the negotiations" - in plain language: I can't stop hiding that France is naked and next in line to collapse.

MM / dil

But First!
PAR 17:14 GMT 07/05/2015
Chinese QE. That's what we need .

But First!
dc CB 17:11 GMT 07/05/2015
the WSJ:

China’s central bank will provide liquidity to help stabilize the country’s crumbling stock market, according to a statement by China’s top securities regulator late Sunday.

The People’s Bank of China will inject capital into China Securities Finance Corp., which is owned by the securities regulator, according to the statement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The company will then use the funds to expand brokerages’ business of financing investors’ stock purchases.

The CSRC said Friday it would dramatically increase the company’s capital to 100 billion yuan ($16.1 billion) from the current 24 billion yuan. The exact amount to come from the central bank hasn’t been disclosed.

The latest move comes as Chinese authorities are scrambling to stem a stock-market slide that officials fear could spread to other parts of the world’s second-largest economy.

Also late Sunday, a unit of China’s giant sovereign-wealth fund, Central Huijin, said it recently purchased exchange-traded funds and will continue to do so, another measure aimed at stabilizing the market.

China’s Central Bank to Provide Liquidity to Help Stabilize Stock Market

Greek Polls
dc CB 17:03 GMT 07/05/2015
Marathon Man

"Is it safe?"

Greek Polls
GVI Forex 16:37 GMT 07/05/2015
Greek polling has just closed and the initial exit polls suggest Greek voters have rejected the creditors bailout proposal. Though still likely within the margin of error, four polls all put No ahead:

· GPO: Yes/No at 48.5%/51.5%

· Metron: Yes/No at 48%/52%.

· Skai: Yes/No at 48.5%/51.5%

· Macro No: Yes/No at 48%/52%

Greek Polls
Paris ib 16:33 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
No wins.
They start printing.
That was the plan all along.
That is why no agreement could be made with these guys.
They never wanted an agreement.
The whole thing has been a media charade.

Greek Polls
Empoli ab 16:24 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
The Guardian

Greek referendum: TV station polls put 'No' vote in the lead – live

Greek Polls
Paris ib 15:58 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
Start the printing presses...

We were warned

Greek Polls
Paris ib 15:55 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
"the Greek government continues to insist that the February 28 deadline will be ignored by it and that it refuses to enter into negotiations with the troika under the existing bailout program. This in turn means that the ECB shouldn’t allow ELA to proceed beyond that date either.

So we are wondering, what if the Bank of Greece simply says “we’re going to extend it anyway”?"

Meaning what if we just keep printing. No wonder the EU has been trying to panic the Greek electorate.


Greek Polls
Paris ib 15:49 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
"by February 11, the ECB will have removed all junk-rated Greek debt from its balance sheet. However, for the moment this will make no difference to the Greek banking system in practice, as the Bank of Greece can still extend “ELA”, i.e., emergency liquidity assistance."

Some interesting background reading

Greek Polls
Paris ib 15:42 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile

The Eureka Moment

Greek Polls
Paris ib 15:24 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
Try to realise the truth:

There is no Euro.

Greek Polls
Paris ib 15:17 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron says “it would be a historic error to crush the Greek people” in the event of a no vote in Sunday’s Greek referendum. Europe and Greece need to find a compromise on reforms in the country and debt relief whatever the result of today’s referendum, "We need to rise to the occasion. To the Greeks, we speak of responsibility, but we all have responsibility."

A kinder EU because they suddenly found they miscalculated. Very badly.

Better Merkel on that cover

Greek Polls
Paris ib 14:50 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
"It is possible, contrary to consensus, that Tsipras does have in mind to keep Greece in the eurozone despite other member countries’ attempts to exclude it. After all, such exclusion has no legal grounds in EU treaty texts. The big question becomes: What then would prevent Greece.. to begin simply printing euros, while rejecting the austerity, and possibly even defaulting on its debt? Why would an extreme leftist such as Tsipras bother switching to drachmas – with the disastrous consequences for the Greek population and his own political future – when Greece already has the capacities to simply print euros? ...this is a crisis, and it is theoretically very possible."

What if Greece Just Printed the Euros It Needs?

Greek Polls
Paris ib 14:38 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
"If the EU cannot resolve a small problem the size of Greece, what is the point of Europe?...I would like to know how Merkel, Juncker, or Lagarde can possibly take it upon themselves to throw Greece out of the euro." Romano Prodi

Spot the shifting of positions..... No matter the outcome of the vote in Greece Europe is likely to take a more conciliatory stance towards Greece. While Greece may not use the 'nuclear option' other countries in Europe have certainly taken note that there IS THAT option available. The perceived position of the European 'elite' has thus been considerably weakened as a result.

The Euro only exists as a 'concept currency' and relies on all member states accepting the conditions behind its creation. Should any member state decide to print Euros according to national imperatives - and not at the direction of the ECB - you would suddenly have MANY EUROS: Greek Euros, French Euros, German Euros, a black market exchange rate for all of them, no unified exchange rate, in effect, no Euro. The Greek Euro would devalue relative to other Euros, the German Euro would revalue (bye, bye export market)... we would be right back to a pre-Euro financial system. And the EU elite would suddenly be powerless.

Without cooperation and trust the Euro simply does not exist.

Who prints what now:

Belgium notes carry a Z
Germany an X
Estonia a D
Ireland a T
Greece a Y
Spain a V
France a U
Italy an S
Cyprus a G.......

Greece "can create euros in a few "clicks" under the cover of the opaque Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. Greece is already estimated to have created up to 96 billion euros to help its banks using the ELA..... Turning on the euro printing presses in Greece... would be less painful for the new leftist government than going back to the drachma, as the main effect would be felt abroad. Instead of the government's massive debt balance being paid with Greek savings, it would dilute the purchasing power of the entire eurozone. Although it is impossible to be certain if this is Tsipras' true strategy, it is a risk of which euro investors should be aware."

And the European elite sure better be aware of just how weak their position is. Regardless of the vote expect a softer, kinder EU elite.

The Nuclear Option

SSE Composite Index : Critical Point 3271.3
Hong Kong Qindex 14:30 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile

SSE Composite Index : Critical Point 3271.3

As shown in the monthly cycle congested area (see my webpage on SSEC Monthly Cycle Charts) the market is under pressure when it is below 3839.6. Speculative selling pressure will increase again when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the Critical Point at 3271.3.

SSEC Monthly Cycle Charts

Greek Polls
GVI Forex john bland 13:16 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
If I am correct, the results of the referendum will be decisive meaning either the Syriza Party either strengthens its power (no vote) or will be forced to call a new election (yes).

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Comparative PMI Data for U.S., Canada, China and Australia
nw kw 13:07 GMT 07/05/2015

Greek Polls
GVI Forex john bland 13:03 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
I don't know what to expect, but I have a feeling pre-referendum polls will prove to have been very inaccurate.

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Comparative PMI Data for U.S., Canada, China and Australia
GVI Forex Blog 12:46 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile

Falling oil prices in late 2014 were a weight on the Canadian economy. You can see how it might have started to revover as prices bottomed

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Comparative PMI Data for U.S., Canada, China and Australia

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Comparative PMI Data for U.S., EZ, U.K. and Japan
GVI Forex Blog 12:19 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile

I use the PMI Manufacturing reports as a benchmark for how economies are currently perfoming. Manufacturing PMI data tend to be a good reflection of current conditions

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Comparative PMI Data for U.S., EZ, U.K. and Japan

The best political system for Greece for the near future: MILITARY DICTATORSHIP!
HK RF@ 11:59 GMT 07/05/2015

With this kind of stupid crazy politicians running the state affairs, Let the army try finding an arrangement with the creditors.

Possibly they will get a better deal, and faster.

AUD opening
nw kw 11:37 GMT 07/05/2015
There were 46.2 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai gold exchange in the latest week.

Greek Polls
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:12 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
Results will be known before markets open for the week

Polls opened at 04:00 GMT (7am local) and close at 16:00 GMT (7pm local)

There will be no exit polls, due to unreliable results in past
Complete result expected by 18:00 GMT (9pm local)

Final result may be delayed slightly if the referendum appears close (it likely will be)

Greece: Is Good News Bad News or Vice Versa? Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:46 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile

>> Open Access <<

The focus to start the week will be on the outcome of the Greek referendum and what I know for sure is that the market will gap open one way or the other. The question for the EUR is whether bad news is good news for the currency or vice versa. In any case, I present key levels on both sides to cover all bases as the initial move out of the box will depend on the referendum results.

Greece: Is Good news Bad News or Vice Versa? Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

AUD opening
Chennai AMI 09:50 GMT 07/05/2015
What can we expext fron aud in opening. Already 1.60% down in the last session. How it will open below 1.5000 or above 1.5300.

Greece: the con
Empoli ab 09:47 GMT 07/05/2015  - My Profile
Well after having read all the long but very eloqueintail link posted by Triest
Is There No Escape from the Euro?
Triest 05:58 GMT 07/05/2015
i think that all the manouvre made by Tsipras to push all responsability of the situation to the Greek people is his last attemp to save him more than Greek situation now. I dont think Greek people know exactly all the consequences af an YES or No victory.
Judging by the the Triest's link in any case the street people will have to lose from this poll. a NO victory will have enormous consequences in all the system, here in Italy will be fuel to be burned in fasvour of Northeer League out of Euro campaign and 5 Stars movement attempt to adopt a public referendum to leave Euro (they started already to catch subscriptions necessary and have already deposited them in Upper House, Senate even if it is an automatic issue to leave the Euro) and it will be a strong signal that other peripherical countries like mine Italy, and for example Spain have a rising willingess to come back to their own currency...
A n yes vot will be very hard to digest for greek people will give o Tsipras or somebody other, as he maybe will step down and in ay case he will be not a loser but a start a new negotiation with creditors and this will hit hardly way of life in Greek, i mean that at hit spoint a global and heavy reform for pension and labour will be done and think greek people has only to lose from this.
Think also that even many are saying that anything will chg in case of no victory, tomorrow Mr Draghi and collegues will have to use all the tools in thier hand to prevent some unrest in financial system.
By the way Livingston, a personal thing if u can answer to me, u worte u are ten miles far from a FED facility near Giants Stadium, are u living in NJ? as esxaclty 30 years ago i attended a course in a NJ's college in East Orange town for a month long and every day i passed with my bus in fornt of Giant STadium before entering in NY and i cannot forget in my life that experience.

thanks for every answer, i remaind square as i wait for the results, as my broker, obviously increased twice the margin for monday.. maybe is better enter the market wher the dust will be settled

Is There No Escape from the Euro?
Triest 05:58 GMT 07/05/2015

More Mistakes ?
nw kw 02:48 GMT 07/05/2015
Depending on the outcome, this coming week could see extremely different paths in markets.

If the bailout terms are rejected and Greece goes into full-throttle default, (with what promises to be an attendant exit from the European Monetary Union), look for gold to rise and the euro currency to drop.

If it is a yes vote on acceptance, gold and the euro will reach a sort of stasis before broader market forces and more detailed reactions to the re-structuring of Greece’s economy take over again.

That said, China remains a bigger story. If the flight of capital from Shanghai equities continues it does mean the Chinese economy will take a hit… and, since China is in the big three economies of the world, albeit it much smaller than the U.S. and the EU, the effect could be quite harmful to continued recovery from the Great Recession. Stay tuned

More Mistakes ?
nw kw 02:22 GMT 07/05/2015
While gold in GBP dropped about 3.8% in the first half of this year, gold in Swiss franc terms saw the largest drop, falling 7.65% in the past six months.

The euro and the yen, on the other hand, saw a rise in value for gold during the first half. Gold in euro terms increased by 6.08% in the past six months, while gold/JPY saw gains of roughly 0.05%. However, in the last 30 days, gold/EUR only experienced mere gains of 0.05%, while gold/JPY saw losses of 2.57%.

Cieszynski noted that he thinks the euro has already "bottomed out" and is starting to rebound.

"That's why we're seeing, even with all the turmoil in Greece, that gold hasn't gone up against euro," he said.

"The yen also has the potential to strengthen on the basis of not just U.S. dollar weakening, but also I do think eventually they'll slow down their quantitative easing program, but not yet," he said, commenting on the Japanese currency

Next Page


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