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02/03/15 7:00 A DE Retail Sales mm con: 0.40% pre: 0.00%
02/03/15 7:00 A DE Retail Sales yy con: 3.00% pre: 4.80%
FOREX FORUM
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observation
UK rg 04:00 GMT 03/02/2015
EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

On monthly chart candle is 'bang on' the kijun sen (ichomoku) First time for 40 months
Could signify a strong move up
gt

AceTrader Mar 2: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:08 GMT 03/02/2015
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Mar 2015 00:16GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro opened lower in NZ on Monday to 1.1167, then 1.1160 ahead of Asian open.
Reuters reported Greece's leftist PM Alexis Tsipras accused Spain n Portugal on Saturday of leading a conservative conspiracy to topple his anti-austerity goverment, saying they feared their own radical forces before elections this year.

In a speech to his Syriza party, Tsipras accused them of taking a hard line in negotiations which led to the euro zone extending the bailout programme last week for 4 months.

"We found opposing us an axis of powers ... led by the governments of Spain n Portugal which for obvious political reasons attempted to lead the entire negotiations to the brink," said Tsipras, who won an election on January 25.

"Their plan was and is to wear down, topple or bring our goverment to unconditional surrender before our work begins to bear fruit and before the Greek example affects other countries," he said, adding: "And mainly before the elections in Spain."
Tsipras has portrayed the Eurogroup deal as a victory for Greece, even though it meant extending the bailout programme he had promised voters to scrap. He noted German lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives had attacked the Greek leadership when they approved the extension on Fri.

"We have all watched the strong opposition within Angela Merkel's party which shows that unacceptable concessions have been made to Greece," he said.
So far he has public backing. A poll conducted by the University of Macedonia for SKAI TV showed 56 percent of Greeks believed the extension had been a success, compared with 24 percent who said it represented a failure.

Ireland's FinMin has said Athens must negotiate a 3rd bailout when the extension expires in Jun - something Tsipras denied on Friday.

FinMin Yanis Varoufakis called into question a major debt repayment Greece must make to the ECB this summer, after acknowledging Athens faces problems in meeting its obligations to international creditors.

Data to be released this week:

New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Australia new home sales, business inventories, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, UK manufacturing PMI, mortgage approvals, Canada current account, U.S. PCE, personal income, personal consumption, ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending on Monday.

Australia building approvals, RBA rate decision, Swiss GDP, Germany retail sales, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales and ISM New York index on Tuesday.

Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, retail sales, UK services PMI, Canada BoC rate decision, U.S. ADP employment and Fed beige book on Wednesday.

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, France unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, Italy GDP, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada Ivey PMI and U.S. jobless claims and factory orders on Thursday.

Japan leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France exports, imports, budget balance, Swiss CPI, Italy producer prices, EU GDP, Canada building permits, exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, unemployment rate and international trade on Friday.

Fun with Covers
dc CB 01:15 GMT 03/02/2015
CASH CASH CASH
Advice for those with Over $5ml net Worth

From Barrons

Barrons


Remember Remember the 15th of October
dc CB 23:31 GMT 03/01/2015

zerohedge @zerohedge · 37m 37 minutes ago

"We are revising our forecast for 10-year Germany Bund yields from 1.25% at the end of this year to 75bp" - Goldman Sachs
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well since Goldmans Target for the SnP by the end of 2015 has already been exceeded and its end of 2016 Target is less than 100pts away...What are to make of this Bund target....

shud be reached by the end of the quarter?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

""
On October 15, the deepest and most liquid market in the world demonstrated a six standard deviation move in less than two hours, a move that happens once in 506,797,346 days! It is impossible to suggest that this supersized move in the US Treasury market was due to downward assessment of economic expectations. Economic expectations shift weekly – if not daily. Clearly, a shift in the structure of the US Treasury market and substantial reduction of private sector market makers is at the core of recent complications. Similarly, this issue extends well beyond simply the sovereign debt market for US securities, as a result of the interconnectedness among markets and the unique role for Treasury debt as benchmark securities. To be sure, a sustained “flash crash” in the world’s leading fixed income market could readily unleash a pronounced slowdown of the global economy, or worse. """

from the CFS

"What's in your wallet"



Remember Remember the 15th of October
dc CB 23:22 GMT 03/01/2015
Remember the algo-ignited, six sigma anomaly that sent 10-year yields down 30 bps in seemingly no time flat on the morning of October 15? Well despite the CFTC’s contention that it was “just a high volume day” without “any break in liquidity,” the Center for Financial Stability is out with a new report which cites the Treasury flash crash as a glaring example of what happens when an increasingly illiquid market collides head-on with “herding investment behavior.”

More Flash Crashes To Come As Shadow Banking Liquidity Collapses


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 22:42 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
AUD PMI. Third straight monthly contraction.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 22:35 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
Australian PMI weaker. AUD negative?


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 22:30 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
Australia PMI February 2015





Earlier News ALERT

45.4 vs. n/a exp. vs. 49.0 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Month Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:02 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile


>> OPEN ACCESS <<

No login required


Video: Forex Trading Outlook for March


Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 20:21 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
Monthly (20-day) Pivots. A longer time perspective



Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 20:16 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile


EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:01 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
GBPUSD Net GBP shorts have been declining sharply We see GBP shorts declining and longs increasing through last Tuesday. A sharp EURGBP decline suggests there might be a lot of interest in entering EURGBP shorts. We do not get reliable EURGBP COT reports.

The strong divergence in EURUSD and GBPUSD should be closely monitored. It might not last long.



Click on chart for COT Details




Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
JPY short positions fell in the week ending on Fed 24. Net short JPY positions have continued to decline as as interest in the pair has as declined to due an extended period of range trading. JPY shorts fell slightly and longs rose very modestly.

As long as resistance in USDJPY holds at 120.00 interest in this pair will remain muted. Net position exposure is modest.




Click on chart forJPY COT Details


Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:41 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
Net EURUSD positions fell in the week ending last Tuesday (February 24). Both longs and shorts were reduced, presumably due to frustration with the range trading during most o of the month .Net EURUSD shorts fell because EURUSD shorts fell by more than longs did.

Since then, the price action should have seen EURUSD short increase and longs fall once again. Charts and the COT point to a bearish EURUSD tone. In my opinion, EURUSD shorts are not not seriously over extended.



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






OIL What's Going On?
dc CB 19:01 GMT 03/01/2015


Meanwhile BOHICA

OIL What's Going On?
dc CB 18:59 GMT 03/01/2015


Oh, and about those "falling" gasoline prices that Yellen said would be "like a tax cut".
Well taxes are now Rising. I quess it is all Transient
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

nationwide gas prices are rising at the fastest pace in over a decade; as AP reports, for Californians, it's considerably worse as gas prices have soared 60c to $3.23 per gallon in the last few weeks.

spiking prices 20-30c on Thursday alone as one gas station owner exclaimed, in 48 years "I've never seen anything like this kind of [price spike]."

Meanwhile In California, Unambiguously Ungood...


Deep thoughts
dc CB 18:26 GMT 03/01/2015
give this a listen, to idle away a snowy sunday
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I received a call from Mr. Hashiyama in the office, and he said in order to determine which auction house to handle collection, I would like both of you - Christie's and Sotheby's - to play the game rock, paper, scissors.

ROSENBERG: Yes, you heard her right.

UNIDENTIFIED MEN: Rock, paper, scissors, shoot.

ROSENBERG: Mr. Hashiyama wanted the two biggest auction houses in the world to play a $20 million game of Rochambeau.

Anything for the Client


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 16:28 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile


March 1, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 2, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP/AU/CN- PMIs, DE- Retail Sales. CH/EZ/UK, EZ- flash HICP, US- PMIs, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Construction Spending
  • Far East: JP/AU/CN- PMIs
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales. CH/EZ/UK, EZ- flash HICP
  • North America: US- PMIs, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Construction Spending



Active Week For Data. PMIs Followed BY ECB. U.S. Employment Friday
GVI Forex Blog 16:25 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: JP/AU/CN- PMIs, DE- Retail Sales. CH/EZ/UK, EZ- flash HICP, US- PMIs, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Construction Spending

Active Week For Data. PMIs Followed BY ECB. U.S. Employment Friday


BREAKING NEWS
NY JM 13:09 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
Greece is a non-factor now until the next deadline comes in focus.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 12:41 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
AP Interview: Greece’s repayments to ECB need discussion

...“The IMF repayments of course we are going to prioritize, we are not going to be the first country not to meet our obligations to the IMF,” the 53-year-old said, speaking in his office in the finance ministry overlooking Athens’ central square and the country’s parliament. “We shall squeeze blood out of stone if we need to do this on our own, and we shall do it.”

However, “the ECB repayments are in a different league and we shall have to determine this in association with our partners and the institutions.” .../..
--
Note to Varoufakis: there is no blood in stone.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 01:15 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile

More Charts

China official (NBS) Mfg PMI just below 50 expansion line.


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 01:09 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
China NBS PMI February 2015






China PMI's
NBS: 49.9 vs. 49.7 exp vs. 49.8 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

China rate cut
nw kw 21:58 GMT 02/28/2015
Chinas PM. calling for stimulus for growth this week.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 16:56 GMT 02/28/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):  
    SUNDAY
    1:00 CN NBS PMI Latest view on economy
    22:30 AU MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    MONDAY
    1:35 JP final PMI Latest view on economy
    1:45 CN HSBC final PMI Latest view on economy
    7:00 DE Retail Sales consumer demand measure
    8:30 CH PMI Latest view on economy
    8:50 FR MKT PMI Lastest view on economy
    8:55 DE final MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    8:58 EZ MKT PMI Latest view on economy
    9:28 GB Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    10:00 EZ flash HICP y ECB targets inflation
    10:00 EZ fl core HICP y m ECB targets inflation
    13:30 CA Cur/Acct C$b Broadest Economic Measure
    13:30 US PCE defl y Fed inflation target
    13:30 US Per Income consumer income
    14:30 CA RBC-Markit PMI Latest view on economy
    14:45 US final MKT MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    15:00 US Construction Spend construction
    15:00 US ISM MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    TUESDAY
    4:30 AU Australia Reserve Bank 25bp cut expected
    9:28 GB Construct PMI Latest view on economy
    13:30 CA GDP
    21:30 US Weekly Energy
    WEDNESDAY
    0:30 AU GDP broadest view of economy
    8:50 FR SVC PMI Lastest view on economy
    8:55 DE final SVC PMI Latest view on economy
    8:58 EZ SVC PMI Latest view on economy
    9:28 GB SvC PMI Latest view on economy
    10:00 EZ Retail Sls consumer demand
    12:00 US WK Mortgage Stats
    13:15 US ADP JOBs predictor of payrolls
    14:45 US final MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy
    15:00 CA BOC Rates No Rate Change Expected
    15:00 US Factory Orders future production
    15:00 US ISM SVC PMI Latest view on economy
    15:30 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
    19:00 USFRB Beige Book Fed Economic Report
    THURSDAY
    0:30 AU Trade A$bln External accounts
    0:30 AU Retail Sales External accounts
    7:00 DE Factory Ord future demand
    12:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank NO rate Change Expected
    13:30 US Weekly Jobless weekly jobs data
    13:30 US Productivity Key to growth
    15:00 CA Ivey PMI Latest view on economy
    15:30 US Nat Gas bcf
    FRIDAY
    7:00 DE Ind Output yy output
    8:15 CH CPI SNB Target
    10:00 EZ GDP mm broadest view of economy
    10:00 EZ GDP yy broadest view of economy
    13:30 CA Trade C$bn external accounts
    13:30 US Unemployment % unemployment rate
    13:30 US Payrolls Key Jobs data
    13:30 US Trade external Accunts
    20:30 US COT Report

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.



Forex Markets Ready to Blossom? - March 1, 2015
GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT 02/28/2015  - My Profile

ECB QE In March
Last week it appeared that interest rates in the Eurozone were falling in anticipation of the start of a strong dose of Quantitative Ease (QE) due to start in March. QE means the central bank will be force-feeding a lot of cash into the banking system in hopes of stimulating growth and triggering rising prices (inflation). The effectiveness of QE in other economies has been widely debated. Anticipation of the additional liquidity has seen the DAX trading repeatedly to new record highs recently and the yield on the 10-yr bund falling to below 0.30%. Furthermore, the EURUSD has traded out of its latest 1.1300 to 1.1400 range. On Thursday March 5, the ECB holds its next policy board meeting. This will give President Draghi a chance to provide additional guidance on the upcoming QE.

Forex Markets Ready to Blossom? - March 1, 2015


China rate cut
GVI Forex john 11:53 GMT 02/28/2015  - My Profile
USDCNY has risen from a low of 6.1086 in November to a peak Friday of 6.7000. The currency wars continue

Early Sunday sees the newest (February) NBS (National Bureau of Statistics)official PMI data. Recent data have not been promising.


China rate cut
HK Kevin 10:30 GMT 02/28/2015
People Bank of China cuts rate by 0.25% to 5.35%. How it impacts AUD on Asian opening next Monday?

Sydney sellers rush to market as prices surge
Syd 03:30 GMT 02/28/2015
The city is bracing for the biggest February auction day ever on Saturday, as almost 800 homes are put under the hammer. And auction numbers are expected to continue building until the weekend before Easter - on March 28 - which is usually one of the busiest auction days of the year. The corresponding weekend in 2014 was Sydney's biggest auction day, with 1100 properties, and experts say there is a good chance there will be a similar number this year.

Competition for homes means many properties are not making it to auction.


March Newsletter
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:52 GMT 02/28/2015  - My Profile


In this issue:<

- Slam Dunk Month for the Dollar?

- Video: Forex Trading Outlook for March


March Newsletter: Thoughts from the Trading Trenches

I doubt the stories about Greeks gold buying.
HK RF@ 00:59 GMT 02/28/2015


Circulating stories that the Greeks are buying gold as a hedge against the present crisis, do not make sense.

The difference between buy/sell may bite into the returns when come to be sold.

Seems more reasonable they will buy USD(which is safer and easy to dispose) than the Euro for this time.

Just making stories to prop gold prices: Not too successfully for this weekend.

USD/YEN
Second attempt to breach 119.70 Res. failed, and a temporary double top may have formed.
Back to 118.50 is still a possibility, especially when most calls are for 120 and above.

In Europe, Bond Yields and Interest Rates Go Through the Looking Glass
dc CB 00:41 GMT 02/28/2015
HVIDOVRE, Denmark — At first, Eva Christiansen barely noticed the number. Her bank called to say that Ms. Christiansen, a 36-year-old entrepreneur here, had been approved for a small business loan. She whooped. She danced. A friend took pictures.

“I think I was so happy I got the loan, I didn’t hear everything he said,” she recalled.

And then she was told again about her interest rate. It was -0.0172 percent — less than zero. While there would be fees to pay, the bank would also pay interest to her. It was just a little over $1 a month. ...........

Some other Danes are facing a related, if somewhat opposite, issue.

Last month, Ida Mottelson, a 27-year-old student, received an email from her bank telling her that it would start charging her one-half of 1 percent to hold her money.

“At first I thought I had misunderstood this, but I hadn’t,” she said.

“I’m not an expert,” Ms. Mottelson said, “but to me it sounds so weird that you have to pay to have your account at a bank.”

NIRP in Denmark


Bad spirit in Athens: The Athex Composite can't recover.
dc CB 23:59 GMT 02/27/2015
HK RF@ 15:17 GMT February 27, 2015
The video below though not informative and not humorous to all, attest to how relations between the two nations went bad.


quite the production .

have you seen the Dutch take... Rap Vid

RAP BATTLE [English + GREEK SUBS] - Dijsselbloem vs Βαρουφάκης (Varoufakis)


Fischer: Fed won’t be predictable after lifting rates
Mtl JP 22:38 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile
and Bloomberg says that
Fischer Says Odds Greatest for Rate Rise in June, September

.. “I don’t think there is an emphasis on June instead of September” Fischer told a monetary policy forum in New York. He added that judged by the views of Fed officials and investors “it seems those two months get the main weight of probability.”
At the same time, he said, “things could happen” that could change those assumptions. “We will make a decision and we will make it on the basis of evidence.” .../..


CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:55 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 20:10 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile
Late in the day

10-yr 1.996% -3.9bp

OIL What's Going On?
dc CB 19:39 GMT 02/27/2015
as the NYMEX pit closes the Brent/WTI spread is $12.85+-


In general for a week
SaaR KaL 19:25 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile
want to buy the eurusd till 2017?
Long Generally around 1.1
Specifically 1.08
worst case 1.04
Target 1.50 +
And sleep till 2017

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 19:14 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.



Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 19:12 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile
•ECB to give more detail on QE programme

•Employment and wage growth to provide guidance on when the Fed will hike

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - ECB MEETING AND US PAYROLLS REPORT TO DRIVE MARKET MOVES


Bad spirit in Athens: The Athex Composite can't recover.
Mtl JP 18:47 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile
Not that long ago I recall S&P claiming Greek banks carrying 40% NPLs.
I have not seen - which does not mean it does not exist - a new report that the situation has improved for Greek banks. Odds are, if I were a Greek patriot, that I would not be keeping more than 100 euros in any Greek bank.

Theme change in currencies and commodities
Maribor 18:44 GMT 02/27/2015
Dil, my expectations are similar. My guess is that DAX30, CAC40 and Nikkei reached top for quite some time or at least, will soon change direction despite QE. Others will follow.

Theme change in currencies and commodities
Israel Dil 18:18 GMT 02/27/2015
Next week we may experience medium term theme/trend change... what went DOWN/UP going to change its course for a while...

MM / Dil

BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 18:16 GMT 02/27/2015
well Dudley speaks for Goldman and all the other NY TBTF FDIC Insured HedgeFund "Banks".

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 18:01 GMT 02/27/2015  - My Profile
did I expect a Laurel and Hardy circus clown act from Dudley and Mester ?

Dudley calls for rate-hike caution while Mester suggests quicker move

warning: put on your Depends before clicking the link
(the economists claim that they do not know)

usd
dc CB 17:25 GMT 02/27/2015
nw kw 16:49 GMT
us 30 Yr. T-Bond [Futures]
148. spiked up to 161.72 / on this cfd plaform

it's because of the Roll to the June contract. And is due to the underlying deliverable Bonds in that contract. Suggest you do a Google search or go to the CME website.

Screws up the continuation charts too,


In general for a week
Livingston nh 17:14 GMT 02/27/2015
jp - it's been frustrating back and forth over the 21 dma BUT there seems a lot of white space between the 21 and 55 // and oil won't BREAK despite the builds (decl cap util) -- now there's leakage into the "do gooder" industries, ethanol producers taking a hit and solar being put on hold - see if the buyers can hold@50


Next Page



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Forex Markets Ready to Blossom? - March 1, 2015

Thoughts from the Trading Trenches for March 2015

Ask Your Advocate: Can Forex Trading Be Made Easy?

A Must Read Lesson for All Forex Traders

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Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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