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US Elections Livingston nh 13:52 GMT 09/25/2016 The original President debates bear little resemblance to the Cavalry Charge Kentucky Derby like primary debates -- Monday may see the food fight primary format of the past year dominate -- a technocrat w/ a status quo "message" vs a blustering name caller w/ a change "message" Change is always promised and the electorate knows that is always a lie -- Can they be seduced again? None of this will display a President's most necessary requirement -- a BS antenna that screens out and/or suppresses advice, it allows for good decisions in CRITICAL matters // it may only really matter once in a term but it determines history
GVI Data Calendar for 26 September 2016 GVI Forex Blog 13:19 GMT 09/25/2016 - My Profile
September 25, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 26, 2016.
26-Sep MON
Monday Trading GVI Trading Room john bland 11:40 GMT 09/25/2016 - My Profile
26-Sep MON Trading Themes--
John M. Bland, MBA co-founder Global-View.com CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk Off
Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 – 30 September 2016 Amsterdam NordFX 11:31 GMT 09/25/2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: – the most intriguing for EUR/USD last week was whether the ascending channel, which had started in July, would continue. However, the acting of the pair didn’t give a clear answer to that question. Indeed, after the breakout, as expected, the pair went down to the support in the area of 1.1100–1.1120. But then, having rebounded from it the pair returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend and, having turned it into the resistance, continued its moving upwards; – as a reminder, assessing possible acting of GBP/USD, experts split into three almost equal groups: 35% voted for the pair’s fall, 30% - for its rise, and 35% for the sideways trend. Eventually, the last camp turned out to be right – using the central line of summer sideways channel of 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair had been moving eastward during the whole week. With this, the bears didn’t cease to test the level of 1.2950, but the bulls could fight off all those attacks, and eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2960; – as for USD/JPY, the Interest Rate Decisions of the central bank of Japan and the US Fed (which, as expected, were kept on hold) were no so much determining as the commentary on the monetary policy of those countries. Eventually, having kept within the sideways range during the first two days, on Wednesday the pair surged up – to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as the graphical analysis expected, it plunged. Having broken through the support of 100.50, by inertia the pair went further 40 points down – to the level of 100.10, and afterwards, when it calmed down a little, it returned to the specified area – to the area of 100.50–101.25; – Wednesday was also determining for USD/CHF. And if until now the pair had been moving without moving apart from the pivot point of 0.9800, then, mirroring the acting of EUR/USD, it plunged. The technical analysis indicated two levels of support – 0.9685 and 0.9640, however, the pair preferred the average value and chose the level of 0.9660 as the week low, and afterwards, having bounced off it, it returned to the area of 0.9685–0.9740. *** Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: – EUR/USD. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 point to the north. As for the analysts, 60% of them vote for the pair’s rise, and 40% - for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement of the pair was zero. If the camp, voting for rise, wins, then the pair will return to the range of the ascending medium-term channel and consolidate above its lower boundary, alongside which it has been currently moving. In this scenario the minimum goal is to get to the area of 1.1260–1.1280, the target for the next weeks - 1.1410. As for the supporters of its fall, they indicate the level of 1.1120 as the target, the next support will be at 1.1045. It should be noted here, that unlike the week forecast, in medium term around 75% of experts give priority to the bears; – the forecast for GBP/USD remains virtually unchanged. The most analysts, fully backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1, insist that the pair will continue to go down to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850, and afterwards a reverse of the trend and return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060 should follow. – as for USD/JPY, the majority of analysts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on D1, insist that the pair will continue its downtrend. With this, it should be noted, that currently the pair is at the level of very strong support – 101.00, and significant efforts might be required to get over it. If successful, the target of the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, during the month the pair might go further down – to the support of 96.50, afterwards it will return to the level of 101.00; – talking about the near future of USD/CHF, 60% of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should once again test the low of 0.9660, and possibly reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. However, then the pair will nevertheless return to the pivot point of 0.9800, and more than 70% of analysts are sure about that. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
US Elections HK RF@ 10:26 GMT 09/25/2016 Whatever praises you write about H.Clinton, counts down to zero as she was proven a liar right and left. So please... Vote for me Donald Trump because even I am so weird I shall try at least to do something, except that I am better looking than ugly Hillary which no makeup can make her look better than bad and also have a good looking wife for display. So please save America Put me Donald in the White House
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uk rg 07:50 GMT 09/25/2016 USDCAD Entry: Target: Stop: Charts are just charts(they can be broken) They are the the only thing that most people have From here only time will tell gt to you
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nw kw 04:53 GMT 09/25/2016 jp- cad gained new world[tpp] lumber market share, bc. workers absorbed laydoff from ab. oil patch, usa to cad ap 1.28 lumber tariffs are set at, above 128 usa adds tariffs bellow coms off, price in usa lumber support with usa bond move and range, market can be trapped until 128 determined.
US Elections dc CB 01:05 GMT 09/25/2016 Perplexed global public opinion holds its breath at the (circus) best American “democracy” is able to conjure. The first cage match this coming Monday between a Queen of War profiting from a mighty (Clinton) Cash Machine and a billionaire uber-narcissist adored by a “basket of deplorables”. This is a circus quite fitting for a self-described “indispensable nation” where “evil” has been propelled – seriously – to the status of philosophical category. For the basket of deplorables, and even beyond their circle, the temptation is immense to equate voting for Donald Trump with raising a finger against the establishment. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-24/americas-247-circus-maximus
US Elections dc CB 22:20 GMT 09/24/2016 The circus is coming to town... Talking Heads 1988 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itShbI9fAqw ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ In response to Hillary Clinton giving Mark Cuban front row seats at the debate. Trump tweets, "If dopey Mark Cuban of failed Benefactor fame wants to sit in the front row, perhaps I will put Gennifer Flowers right alongside of him!" As a reminder, Bill Clinton testified under oath in 1998 that he had a sexual affair with Flowers. Gennifer Flowers Confirms She Will "Definitely Be At The Debate"
US Elections Mtl JP 21:17 GMT 09/24/2016 - My Profile New York Times: ..."Our endorsement is rooted in respect for her intellect, experience, toughness and courage over a career of almost continuous public service, often as the first or only woman in the arena."... EDITORIAL Saturday, September 24, 2016 Hillary Clinton for President By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
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Mtl JP 20:34 GMT 09/24/2016 - My Profile ok nw kw, all fine n dandy about what "has been" so thks 4 that. Any tots about what will be driving major pressure on the loonie - and in which direction - tomorrow, next week and months ? tia
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nw kw 20:08 GMT 09/24/2016 According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than initially predicted. OPEC supply also continues to flow, not to mention preliminary data showing that North American shale oil is primed for a resurgence. The second major pressure on the loonie has been the divergence between U.S. and Canadian interest rates.
Brexit a two pointed sword. nw kw 19:52 GMT 09/24/2016 soft cad,aud so gbp to oil be down . na oil going down
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uk rg 19:41 GMT 09/24/2016 USDCAD Entry: Target: Stop: Perhaps the Talisman is oil 8 hour chart from 21 aug 16 a 30% downside trendline (4 touch points) Downside safety net has been .382 monthly fib pivot It is a descending triangle gt
IMF - Deutsche Bank “appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks” Mtl JP 19:30 GMT 09/24/2016 - My Profile followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse TIA for trading ideas from Deutsche Bank's sagga.
Schaeuble urged lawmakers to grill ECBs Draghi: Bild newspaper -- Reuters.com GVI Trading Room 17:36 GMT 09/24/2016 - My Profile "German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ratcheted up his criticism of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi this week ahead of Draghi's visit to the German parliament next week, the Bild newspaper reported on Saturday. Schaeuble, a fierce critic of Draghi, urged members of the German finance committee to ask tough questions about Draghi's monetary policy when he testifies before the committee on Wednesday, the newspaper said, citing meeting participants. The ECB has been easing policy aggressively to boost growth and inflation in recent years with little to show for its efforts, fueling arguments that monetary policy was at its limits and governments needed to help out..." Schaeuble urged lawmakers to grill ECB's Draghi: Bild newspaper -- Reuters.com
US Elections dc CB 17:12 GMT 09/24/2016 Police were searching Saturday for a gunman dressed in black who fled on foot toward an Interstate highway after opening fire in the makeup department at a Macy's store in Burlington, Wash., killing five people. Initial surveillance footage from the Cascade Mall showed the suspect entering the building late Friday without a weapon but walking into Macy's about 10 minutes later carrying a "hunting-style" a rifle, police said. The dark-skinned suspect, described as in his teens or early 20s, went into the store's makeup area where he shot four women and a man, Lt. Chris Cammock of the Mt. Vernon Police Department said at a news conference.
US Elections dc CB 17:09 GMT 09/24/2016 CBS News March 7, 2015, 6:43 PM President Obama only learned of Hillary Clinton's private email address use for official State Department business after a New York Times report, he told CBS News in an interview. CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante asked Mr. Obama when he learned about her private email system after his Saturday appearance in Selma, Alabama. "The same time everybody else learned it through news reports," the president told Plante. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-weighs-in-hillary-clinton-private-emails/ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sept 23, 2016 President Barack Obama used a pseudonym in email communications with Hillary Clinton and others, according to FBI records made public Friday. The disclosure came as the FBI released its second batch of documents from its investigation into Clinton’s private email server during her tenure as secretary of state. The State Department has refused to make public that and other emails Clinton exchanged with Obama. Lawyers have cited the "presidential communications privilege," a variation of executive privilege, in order to withhold the messages under the Freedom of Information Act. Obama used a pseudonym in emails with Clinton, FBI documents reveal
Brexit a two pointed sword. HK RF@ 15:07 GMT 09/24/2016 Anyone who is short GBP/xxx, IF Brexit will not push through, may not trade anymore in his life:(
TRY QUO VADIS? Haifa ac 09:06 GMT 09/24/2016 - My Profile Anxiety Spikes Among G-20, An Analysis of UN Speeches Shows Syria’s civil war. North Korean nuclear tests. Brexit. Turkey’s failed coup. A volatile U.S. election. This jarring backdrop was hard to miss as world leaders stepped up to the familiar green marble dais during this week's United Nations General Assembly. Heads of state and government representing the world’s largest economies used words like “fear,” “uncertainty,” “risk,” and “terror” 87 percent more often on average than during last year's gathering, according to an analysis by Adam Tiouririne, a leadership communication adviser at Logos Consulting Group."...... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-23/anxiety-spikes-among-g-20-an-analysis-of-un-speeches-shows
TRY QUO VADIS? haifa ac 05:08 GMT 09/24/2016 - My Profile Moody's cuts Turkey debt rating to 'junk' level https://twitter.com/afp/status/779432351529132032
Way Beyond The Onion World Bank Edition Dillon AL 22:17 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile This guy is dangerous. He seems to forget Sweden is a Sovereign State and likely just because Sweden once was home to ex Nam objectors (due to no extradition treaty) he thinks they can be told what to do. Their land and their borders are sacrosanct and the reality is that immigrants need to be vetted and allowed to settle where they choose once they pass the necessary requirements rather than be to told here's your ghetto. I suggest he annexes his back garden to allow a settlement to be created. What? no?? People like this should not be in positions of power the next thing is they will suggest everyone gets chipped.
Way Beyond The Onion World Bank Edition dc CB 21:25 GMT 09/23/2016 Sweden could solve their migrant problem by creating a new state-within-a-state where national laws don’t apply and sending thousands of migrants and so-called refugees there, the incoming chief economist of the influential World Bank has said. Paul Romer, director of New York University’s Stern School of Business Urbanisation Project, made the remarks about his unusual approach to Sweden’s migrant crisis this week in an interview with the national newspaper Dagens Nyhter. Suggesting the zone could model itself on British Hong Kong, the senior economist said it could bring enormous benefit at no cost to the taxpayer. Explaining his plan, the economist said: “The refugee issue is a huge problem, but there are possible solutions. Sweden, a sparsely populated country, could rent out a land area the size of Hong Kong. “That could take millions of people who would support themselves, and not have to cost anything… It is important that this free zone should be considered independent, with its own laws and rules, and not as part of Sweden.
Game Changer Central Bank Decisions GVI Forex Blog 21:02 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile John M. Bland, MBA
Momentous Central Bank Developments
BREAKING NEWS: dc CB 20:53 GMT 09/23/2016 But the timing of the president’s veto is designed to erode congressional support for the bill and put off a politically damaging override vote until after the November elections. Obama waited until the very end of the 10-day period he had to issue a veto, hoping to buy time to lobby members of Congress against the measure. More details: White House officials also hope congressional leaders will leave Washington to hit the campaign trail before trying for an override, kicking a vote to the lame-duck session after the election. Siding With Saudi Arabia, Obama Vetoes Sept 11 Bill Passed Unanimously In Congress
BREAKING NEWS: dc CB 20:28 GMT 09/23/2016 OBAMA VETOES BILL ALLOWING SEPT 11 VICTIMS TO SUE SAUDI ARABIA
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database GVI Forex Blog 19:48 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile
Commitment Of Traders Report GVI Trading Room john bland 19:41 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP Net EUR JPY COT Positions
    Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions   
US Elections dc CB 18:41 GMT 09/23/2016 WASHINGTON (AP) -- Hillary Clinton's former chief of staff, Cheryl Mills, and two other staff members were granted immunity deals in exchange for their cooperation in the now-closed FBI investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server as secretary of state, says a Republican congressman. Rep. Jason Chaffetz, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, told The Associated Press on Friday that Mills gave federal investigators access to her laptop on the condition that what they found couldn't be used against her. By including the emails recovered from the laptops in the immunity agreements, the Justice Department exempted key physical evidence from any potential criminal case against the aides. "No wonder they couldn't prosecute a case," said Chaffetz, R-Utah. "They were handing out immunity deals like candy." The revelation brings the total number of people who were granted immunity as part of the FBI's investigation to at least five.
US Elections dc CB 18:38 GMT 09/23/2016 WASHINGTON—Most of Hillary Clinton’s emails recovered during a Federal Bureau of Investigation probe into practices from her time as secretary of state won’t be made public until after Election Day, according to a new timetable set Friday by a federal judge.
BREAKING NEWS: Dillon AL 18:03 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile If the return on productive capital is too low, what happens to the rate of interest or savings will change nothing. This is the current status quo. It matters not what the natural rate is when profitability on traditional investment is currently such that the growth in the economy is pedestrian. In essence what we are talking about is velocity of which there is precious little in a deflationary world. Until CBs start to understand that the Bernanke comparison to the 1930s is incorrect and that the better reference is Tulip-mania and the South Sea Bubble then we cannot come out from under the economic cloud and we will continue with mispricing of all asset classes
BREAKING NEWS: dc CB 17:46 GMT 09/23/2016 Crude collapses as the latest fanatasy about caps and cutbacks vaporizes.
US Elections dc CB 17:43 GMT 09/23/2016 The presidential debate commission settled an early flashpoint when Clinton demanded a step-stool at the podium to add height to her 5'4" frame. Campaign Chairman John Podesta expressed concern that Hillary would be dwarfed by 6'2" Trump. The request was quickly rejected. The commission is allowing for a custom-made podium, which will accommodate the difference in stature.
US Elections dc CB 17:40 GMT 09/23/2016 There are no commercial breaks," a commission source explains. "Period." Debate moderator Lester Holt does not have the authority to cut away from the stage during the epic 90-minute showdown. Microphone audio for either of the candidates is not to be manipulated.
BREAKING NEWS: GVI Trading Room john bland 17:04 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile Rig Counts continue to rise.
BREAKING NEWS: GVI Trading Room john bland 17:03 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count  Total (inc gas) U.S.: 511 vs 506 (+5) prev US (oil): 418 vs. 416 (+2) prev Canada 138 vs. 132 (+6) prev TTN: Live News Special Offer 
BREAKING NEWS: Livingston nh 16:47 GMT 09/23/2016 Al - I think the yield curve is too flat (a result of the sudden interest in the Unknown wicksellian R) and businesses are not making capital investments with record amount of debt issuance undertaken // the interest portion of Personal Income has declined while the Savings rate is higher - the fiscal side has been very loose over the past few years w/ a record increase in the debt (lifestyle maintenance rather than investment) so the monetary side must be the culprit
BREAKING NEWS: Dillon AL 16:38 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile jp just about every business is built around borrow short lend long. The issue is the majority of CFOs have no business being in the positions they are in. Classic case which I am sure will go down in teaching annals was Vodafone getting out of Verizon then transferring everything into Sterling at 1.57. Great trade not. They missed out on future value of Verizon and they lost out on FX benefit. The problem is that so many companies hedge far too late and too little. Their borrowing requirements are met when needed IE funded take-overs. In a positive sloping yield curve referred to as a normal curve there is every reason to borrow short and lend long so long as there is plenty of liquidity available which frequently is determined on the basis of credit quality
BREAKING NEWS: Mtl JP 16:28 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile AL 16:18 can u name some businesses that make long-term plant and equipment - not stock buybacks - investment decisions based on short/term 0% overnite rates ?
Delaying tactics Livingston nh 16:19 GMT 09/23/2016 Yellen is hoping to get thru the year w/o a major break on the FOMC -- the regional bank dissenters get washed out the end of the year -- Bullard is now living in Lotus Land so unless he has another inspirational change of heart he is unlikely to join the other 3 -- Yellen kept the BoG a solid vote likely because Brainard and Tarullo would have dissented She'd rather have 3 bank dissents then 2 governors off the reservation
BREAKING NEWS: Dillon AL 16:18 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile wanted to raise interest rates to help prolong the economic expansion ??? oh yes let me see raise the cost of capital and that aids business to grow....me thinks not....The last thing the economy needs is people like him in positions of trust and power and influence. Time for him to retire
BREAKING NEWS: Livingston nh 16:09 GMT 09/23/2016 AARGH - the daily data points are missed by the economists because the models have "normal" relationships built in and the Fed policies are in direct conflict with every stated GOAL that Yellen has expressed over the last two years (savings rate, productivity, inflation expectations and EMPLOYMENT) Rosengren is no longer drinking the Kool-ade
BREAKING NEWS: Mtl JP 15:42 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile it is raining yakkers today: At noon NYT voter Harker and voting hawk Mester yak at some panel Half hour later voter Kaplan yaks; apparently w/Q&A
BREAKING NEWS: Mtl JP 15:29 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile soooo... NY Fed GDP forecast not promising and Rosengren says he wanted to raise interest rates to help prolong the economic expansion
BREAKING NEWS: GVI Trading Room john bland 15:20 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile NY Fed GDP forecast not very promising, especially if the FOMC looks at it.
BREAKING NEWS: GVI Trading Room john bland 15:18 GMT 09/23/2016 - My Profile NY Fed GDP forecast now 2.30% from 2.80% on sep 9. --TTN |
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