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27/04/15 13:45 A US flash MKT SVC PMI con: 58.8 pre: 59.2
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Australian Regional Unemployment Hits 12 Year High
Sydney ACC 01:39 GMT 04/26/2015
Since February 2012, unemployment in the Hunter Valley region in NSW has risen from 2.3 per cent to over 12 per cent.

In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, NSW, the unemployment rate has increased by 3.4 percentage points over that time.

In outback Western Australia the unemployment rate has risen 4.9 percentage points, while in Mackay, Queensland, it has risen by 4.8 percentage points.

The unemployment rate in regional Australia is 7.3 per cent, in non-seasonally adjusted terms, while the comparable national unemployment rate is 6.3 per cent.

Jack Archer, RAI's deputy chief executive, says the numbers show that regional economies need to find strategies for new economic development.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/regional-unemployment-hits-12year-high-20150424-1msjaq.html

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 22:29 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
Traders unwinding their GBBUSD shorts as down-momentum wanes.


Net GBP and CHF COT Positions








Click on chart for COT Details




Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 22:03 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
USDJPY stability seeing positions being wound down to almost nothing...






Click on chart for JPY COT Details



Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 21:58 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
Despite volatility Net positions and spots about steady on a week on week basis...
Net EU COT Positions




Click on chart for EUR COT Details







October 15th Bond Market Crash Explained
dc CB 20:37 GMT 04/25/2015

Remember when Bonds were actually serving as a Bond Function in Markets?

Theoretically in a normalized bond market with normalized interest rates bonds trade in a price range and the 10-year bond has a yield of 3.5 to 4.5%, and then yes bondholders are in this trade to take advantage of a hedged, balanced portfolio with a steady yield which nicely offsets their more volatile brethren in the equities market. So these investors in a normalized market are playing bonds for the steady yield returns and safe haven aspect of the investment. However, those days are long gone in financial markets since ZIRP went into effect globally!

Markets Don`t Crash Up!


S&P : Critical Point 2116.8
Hong Kong Qindex 17:18 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
S&P
Entry: Target: Stop:




S&P (2111.7) : Critical Point 2116.8


The recently high is 2114.5. If the market retreats further and trades below 2097.5 it may trigger speculative selling pressure. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market has a tendency to trade between 2041.7 and 2120.5(see the monthly cycle congested area). My bias is on the downside when the market is rejected from the Critical Point at 2116.8. In the mean time the market is positioning at a neutral point.


Qindex.com



S&P 500 : Monthly Cycle Charts


Crash Boys
Livingston nh 14:49 GMT 04/25/2015
John - remember Portfolio Insurance? 1987

The exchanges need to put in time limits or some other type of kill switch BUT anybody that uses ALGOS should know and be aware of the risk because any automated system can be fooled --

"Livingston nh 19:06 GMT April 13, 2015
BREAKING NEWS: Reply
Automated trading algos are not AI (rather Expert systems)- they are like alarm clox - trade a headline, you can spoof these mopes // change the time on the alarm clock and you may not get the result you expect - larger pockets can trap the users

This is all overblown"

__ nevertheless I have put BLACK Plastic Garbage Bags across the windows in my mother's basement

Is the Dollar Bull Run Over?
GVI Forex Blog 11:57 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile

Honestly I don't know, but I am now not nearly as bullish on the USD as I was a few weeks ago. It all depends on future U.S. data we have not seen yet. Currently just about every analyst blames the poor performance of the U.S. economy in 1Q15 on the severe winter. But it gets cold every winter and isn't that what seasonal-adjustments to data are all about? Many are expecting annualized 1Q15 GDP (seasonally adjusted) to have been about flat in the period. 2Q15 GDP is expected to rebound strongly, but we will see. Once we start to get an inkling of what is happening this...

Is the Dollar Bull Run Over?


Crash Boys
GVI Forex john 11:44 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
When I think about it, it seems to me that SARAO exploited a weakness of the algos who reacted to a bunch of phony sell orders. A human trader in the pits on on a trading floor would not have been that naive. If someone came onto a trading floor with large orders to sell above the market that were pulled whenever they were approached, he would not last long.

Yhe flash crash was caused by poorly designed algos which should be banned as well.

Crash Boys
jkt abel 03:57 GMT 04/25/2015
so a few years down the road they are going to arrest a GV member for causing the flash crash in usdchf during that SNB fiasco?


SARAO
dc CB 20:39 GMT 04/24/2015
OH for got the Most Important quote from that story
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Bittar, who joined Deutsche Bank in 2001, took billion-euro positions on the direction of short-term interest rates with the firm’s own money and reaped hundreds of millions of euros in profit for the bank.

The lender started to scale back its proprietary-trading operations in 2008, and Bittar was named global head of money market derivatives trading, moving to Singapore, in the years that followed, according to the CFTC. The lender dismissed him in December 2011, people with knowledge of the situation said in 2013.

SARAO
dc CB 20:35 GMT 04/24/2015
The financial trader accused of helping precipitate the “flash crash” will now spend the weekend behind bars, having been unable to pay £5.05m bail.

He faces extradition to the US on Department of Justice charges which carry a maximum sentence of 380 years if he is found guilty
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Among the Deutsche Bank AG traders whose e-mails were made public when the lender was fined a record $2.5 billion for rigging Libor, one stands out.

“LETS TAKE THEM ON !!” he said in a Sept. 21, 2005, message to a rate-submitter at Deutsche Bank, according to the bank’s settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services, which described Bittar by his title. The rival bank “IS DOIN IT ON PURPOSE BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE EXACT OPPOSITE POSITION.”

“Ok, let’s see if we can hurt them a little bit more then,” the submitter replied


This Is the Trader Behind Some of Deutsche Bank's Most Embarrassing Messages


Yes, The Onion
dc CB 20:17 GMT 04/24/2015
Saying the company has received hundreds of résumés since posting the job opening to its website earlier this week, Goldman Sachs human resources manager David Browning reported Thursday that a high-level position with the investment bank had attracted applications from every official in the United States Treasury Department. “Within just minutes of listing the open position on our jobs page, the flood of applications from treasury.gov email addresses started rolling in, and it hasn’t slowed down since,”

most of the Treasury regulators who applied for the job highlighted their previous experience working closely with Wall Street financial firms and included a letter of recommendation from former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

the new hire was needed to take over the responsibilities of a former Goldman Sachs executive who had recently left for a high-ranking position in the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Entire Treasury Department Competing For Same Goldman Sachs Job Opening


CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details



SARAO
dc CB 19:35 GMT 04/24/2015


Mtl JP 18:58 GMT
huh .. no friends ... ?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We Got Him!!!!!!

As Seen


Greece Blinks
Paris ib 19:18 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
CB FWIW I don't think Varafoukis is doing a good job for the Greek people. He might not be in it for the money. Who knows? But he certainly seems to be in it for the fame. I don't know enough about his background to know who pulls his strings but judging on results he's not someone I think particularly highly of.

SARAO
dc CB 19:08 GMT 04/24/2015
Bears repeating

The Law of Large Numbers

TimesVideo


Greece Blinks
dc CB 19:04 GMT 04/24/2015
nh
maybe Greece will sell itself to the Russians..can U Say Pipeline.

(Just like Bill and Hillary did with the USA's uranium...2016 will be interesting)

NYTIMES Ed Board: Nothing illegal has been alleged about the foundation.......There is no indication that Mrs. Clinton played a role in the uranium deal’s eventual approval by a cabinet-level committee. ...It’s an axiom in politics that money always creates important friendships

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/opinion/candidate-clinton-and-the-foundation.html


Show US the Emails....LOL ....Poof they're gone....sowwwweeee.

Can't wait to see what side the Washington(Bezos) Post comes down on.

And hey, you watch that spoofing in your mama's basement...NANEX is on it.

Cash Flowed to Clinton Foundation Amid Russian Uranium Deal



Poloz on the record
Mtl JP 18:44 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
Poloz Says Canada Oil-Shock Effects to Turn Positive in 2nd Half BBRG

... “Starting in the second quarter we think the positives will be more important than the negatives, and certainly in the second half of this year, this shock should be fully behind us.” .../..

STOX
Livingston nh 18:38 GMT 04/24/2015
SPX and Nasdaq have good weeks so far but DJI, RUT and DJT (an index that didn't get the memo about oil until yesterday) not so much - no new highs so there is a split market which may show up into today's close // the Fear of Fed should show up soon as folks move towards the door (just in case)

Greece Blinks
Livingston nh 18:18 GMT 04/24/2015
CB - the Award is not based or even intent - it's based oninability to perform as billed (competence to task) // Greece has the advantage of splitting the Troika by playing different interests - time doesn't favor the Greeks so negotiation served no purpose

You need a PLAN and Hope is not a Plan

Greece Blinks
dc CB 18:11 GMT 04/24/2015
nh

He may have failed, but I doubt he lied -- lies that got millions killed, nor do I think he is duplicitous (Yellen) who portends to care while literally starving the elderly.

I could be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

I'm not in-love with the guy, but he does speak truth to power, unlike the others who speak what power want them to say.

Greece Blinks
Livingston nh 17:48 GMT 04/24/2015


CB - Varoufakis is a prime contender for the AHNC (All Hat, No Cattle) award (the much coveted Golden Sombrero) along with Yellen and some minor political figures -- either or both of the current leaders can disqualify themselves with an act commensurate w/ their talk

Varoufakis missed his opportunity earlier when the Good Cop Bad Cop card should have been played - now it is a question of the Troika Bad Guy who appears to be Draghi -- IMF is powerless and EU Council is too prone to further consults so it falls to the ECB to test the Greeks // Capital controls to stop the EUR drain in Greece could be tied to a EU withdrawal deadline (your money or your life) BUT ... only talk from Greece so far

We shall see if he or his mates have a PLAN - it appears not, hence, his Frontrunner Status (see below for a picture of the Award and a recipient at its presentation ceremony some years ago)

Today's Spoofing, as shown by NANEX
dc CB 17:39 GMT 04/24/2015


here is some very clear evidence (courtesy of Nanex) showing "spoofing" - the very charge that Sarao is being scapegoated on - occurring twice in the space of a few minutes this morning...

Then again, we are certain that you have all this data already and are already preparing the case against the perpetrator(s)

Dear CFTC... Here Is Today's Illegal S&P 500 "Spoofing"


Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 17:22 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
*First cut of Q1 UK GDP data to show growth well short of pace implied by surveys •FOMC’s take on Q1 data softness key for markets, but no change in policy expected •Eurozone deflation impulse fading, as Greek situation continues to fester ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - A PRE-ELECTION SOFT PATCH

Greece Blinks
dc CB 17:20 GMT 04/24/2015
Paris ib 14:42 GMT
So they patch it up. Varafoukis is the fly in the ointment. Some suggest he is on the Soros payroll. (What someone else?) So Varafoukis drags things on for as long as he is able. (Which is what he is paid for.)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

fwiw, I've been following Varafoukis, via his blogs and his interviews on Max Keiser, for years. If he could, he would like to pull an Iceland on the ECB and the Banks that have raped - his thinking - Greece. That is what the present Gov was elected to do. If he/they fail, he'll just get another academic postion...albiet better paid thanks to his experience. But I don't think he'll cave to the Bankers.

But, frankly, you do know that Greece was set-up to fail, don't you? And by dissing Varafoukis, aren't you siding with those who, as your regular postings here imply, you believe are corrupt. Or are you so cynical that you can no longer recognize someone who is not just in-it-for-the-money.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Mtl JP 17:00 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
apparently Greek 2-yr yields 25.5%
tempting

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
dc CB 16:54 GMT 04/24/2015


Yes in Honor of the Naz rocketing --- back to 2000 high.

Amazon -- PE 860

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Sydney ACC 16:46 GMT 04/24/2015
Microsoft rises $4.07 - +9.4%.
Amazon rises $58.70 - +15.07%

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 16:23 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
Equity markets ending the week with positive tone.




hk ab
HK Kwun 16:12 GMT 04/24/2015
in the past, i also respected you and found that you were a reasonable / knowledgeable person here. But after that I found your trading was just a joke (fake trade) and fooling us here, at the same you kept dog barking to anyone when loss money, then no longer to welcome you here. Indeed, i don't know know you, but no guts to admit wrong and only show up when market is favouring to you, then what is the point? please don't comment my trade and you just post your fake trade without SL. I am teaching you what is integrity if your parents didn't teach you. Fuxker.

SARAO
dc CB 15:27 GMT 04/24/2015
while the world wonders how it is that Virtu can have 6 years of trading with just one trading day loss, Sarao not only figured out how to outmanipulate the manipulators, but how to profit from it.

Why Nav Sarao Had To Be Destroyed: He Found A Way To Beat The HFTs At Their Own Game


eurusd
Tallinn viies 15:05 GMT 04/24/2015
closed my long euro at 1,0870.
next week again

USD/JPY taking another hit
Paris ib 15:03 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
Looks like the USD is going to be just a little bit exciting as the week closes. 119.00 gone on USD/JPY.....

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 14:58 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
Global-View Week ahead Planning Guide for Trading

Conclusions:
An aggressively easy ECB monetary Policy is locked in until well into 2016. It has been resulting in negative interest rates well out the curve. Low interest will continue to be a chronic weight on the EUR until this policy can be lifted. The falling 2-yr German schatz is a manifestation of that policy.



Fed policy signals have been mixed. In sum, the Fed is preparing the markets for an eventual slight increase in the Fed Funds target, but is assuring markets that any policy tightening will be extremely gradual. We are expecting no policy changes form the Fed this Wednesday. U.S. economic indicators remain mixed.





The upcoming week is a full one for data. Monday, April 27 features the Markit flash Service PMI data for the U.S.



On Tuesday, U.K. GDP and the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Sentiment are due.





On Wednesday April 29, the major focus will be the latest policy decision of the Federal Reserve. No rate changes are expected.

The session also sees 1Q15 U.S, GDP.



Thursday April 30 features flash Eurozone CPI data, which is a policy focus for the European Central Bank. The Fed inflation policy target, the PCE deflator is due as well.





On Friday May 1, many markets will be closed for the May Day holiday. Key markets that are open will see final Manufacturing PMI data for April.





Greece Blinks
Mtl JP 14:53 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
to cure boring u can always take out a large unhedged bet

Greece Blinks
Paris ib 14:42 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
So they patch it up. Varafoukis is the fly in the ointment. Some suggest he is on the Soros payroll. (What someone else?) So Varafoukis drags things on for as long as he is able. (Which is what he is paid for.) But eventually they (Europe and Greece) get down to brass tacks and a deal is hammered out. In the meantime Germany enjoys a relatively capped Euro and (supposedly) all other Euro nations are suitably chastened by the spectre of what might happen to them if they get out of line (ie. don't implement neo-conservative policy agendas). Seriously isn't this script just a little bit boring by now?

Greece Blinks
Mtl JP 14:35 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
the "so what" is that the Greek will not be let to drop out of the euro
and that is a for or against trade opportunity

From Woking to Wall St:
london red 14:32 GMT 04/24/2015
9 out of 10 of these guys lose so its not just the box room/attic day trader with shitty odds.
name of the game is preperation and staying frosty.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3054081/From-Woking-Wall-St-UK-day-traders-dream-glory-daily-grind.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

From Woking to Wall St: UK day traders dream of glory in daily grind


Greece Blinks
Paris ib 14:31 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
So what JP? I don't care what Mario is proved to be one way or the other. Like big deal.

SARAO
dc CB 14:29 GMT 04/24/2015
Then there is the biggest question of all: How can a guy working from his parents’ house in suburban England whose only actionable orders were to BUY stock market futures cause such a sensational collapse in U.S. stocks? On the day of the flash crash, Sarao never actually sold stocks. He was trying to trick the market into falling so that he could buy in more cheaply. But whom did he fool with his trick? Whose algorithms were so easily gamed that they responded to phony sell orders by creating a crash?

It would also be interesting to know how it occurred to Sarao that his trick might work. There’s a fabulous yet-to-be-told story here, about a smart kid in the U.K. who somehow figures out that the machines that execute the stock market trades of others might be gamed -- and so he games them. One day while he is busy trying to trick the U.S. stock market into falling, the market collapses, more sensationally than it has ever collapsed.

Crash Boys By Michael Lewis


Greece Blinks
Mtl JP 14:29 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
ib 14:22 Mario said , on official record, use of euro is irrevocable.
as an adjective, in english irrevocable means not able to be changed, reversed, or recovered; final.

If Greece revokes using euro, Mario will be proven liar or delusional.

Greece Blinks
Paris ib 14:28 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
Apparently the Russians and Chinese have funds and are ready to help the Greeks out if need be. Don't know what the other side of the bargain is. The Europeans don't have a monopoly on funding at any rate. And the people in the 'lets dominate the world' crowd don't like competition apparently. Why? Beats me.

Greece Blinks
HK RF@ 14:26 GMT 04/24/2015


Suggesting chaos in Europe as retaliation:(


Greece Blinks
Mtl JP 14:22 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
u suggesting the Greek adopting Ruble or Yuan and dumping euro ?

Greece Blinks
Paris ib 14:22 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
Well there seems to be some belief that if Europe doesn't come to a reasonable deal with Greece then Greece will embrace Russia (and China). And in some quarters this is not seen as a good thing. So the strategy seems to be: keep Greece in the EU. Why? No idea. Geopolitical nonsense best understood by complete maniacs.

Greece Blinks
HK RF@ 14:20 GMT 04/24/2015


If the Russian and Chinese will backup a hasty and disorderly Grexit..that should make a nice counter-stuff.


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