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FOREX FORUM
21/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims con: 2.518 pre: 2.544
21/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims con: 300 pre: 311
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Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:01 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
still bullish USDCAD
but i closed 90% of Pos here
relongs 1.0896

EURO
GVI Forex j 09:59 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Good points. The U.S. unemployment issue is largely structural, which is why the Fed can't do anything about it and why stimulus programs have not been working.

Yes higher interest rates will make financing the debt more difficult.

EUR/JPY
GVI Forex john 09:55 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
SMV- busy day. Sorry so slow to get back to you. The JPY turned south yesterday due to concerns about the growing Japanese trade deficit which was hit by increased crude imports in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Markets see Japan becoming increasing dependent on oil imports as it has been forced to move away from nuclear power. This is independent of cyclical factors and is seen as a "new" ongoing drain on Japan.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:33 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
JPY crosses is where the trades are
expecially EURJPY
I started shorts and adding
hoping for an average entry 138 area
for 132 tgt

Flash PMI's Mixed. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker
GVI Forex Blog 09:06 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes

The U.S. sees an active calendar today. The August China HSBC was a disappointment as it fell. The new flash Japanese PMI improved. In the Eurozone, the flash EZ manufacturing PMIs all weakened ; key Services PMIs fell as well except in France. U.K. Retail Sales mostly mixed street estimates..

Flash PMI's Mixed. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker


AceTrader Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:05 GMT 08/21/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

21 Aug 2014

EUR/USD - .... Germany services n manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 56.4 n 52.0 vs forecasts of 55.7 n 51.8 respectively.

France manufacturing PMI came in weaker-than-expected at 46.5 vs forecast of 47.8 whilst services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1 vs forecast of 50.0.

A piece of news extracted fm Bloomberg worth noting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide her take on the latest data on labor markets in a keynote speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Yellen has in speeches and congressional testimony focused on reducing slack in labor markets. She measures that with an array of indicators - such as the share of unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more - not solely on the unemployment rate, which stood at 6.2 percent last month, down from 6.7 percent at the end of 2013.

In her Jackson Hole speech, Yellen could, as the minutes did, stress job-market progress. Or she could continue to point to the slack shown on her dashboard of labor-market data, which show the long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or longer, represent 33 percent of the jobless, above the 19 percent average of 2004 to 2007.

EURO
PAR 08:59 GMT 08/21/2014
Long EUR at 1.3270. Stop .3240. Objective open.

Stocks think no FED rate hikes , forex thinks FED to hike .


Rates have nothing to do with unemployment , rates have everything to do with keeping the FED balance sheet in shape and trying to keep financing costs on the US gigantic debt as low as possible .

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 08:52 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
European markets remain are in a RISK-ON posture early Thursday. Flash PMI data have been mixed to slightly weaker than forecast. Equity prices are mostly up along with bond yields.The EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned broadly higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.01% +2 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are up.  A dovish ECB president Draghi speaks late Friday from Jackson Hole.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.45%  +3bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.44%, +1bp. A major focus is dovish Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is now 2.40%, but the old 2.50% pivot may b coming back into view..
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



July 2014 UK Retail Sales
GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
U.K. Retail Sales data mixed but mostly miss street estimates. GBPUSD down.


July 2014 UK Retail Sales
GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile



-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: +0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% (r +0.20%) prev.
yy: +2.60% vs. +3.00% exp. vs. +3.60% (r +3.40%) prev.

x-fuel
Mfg mm: +0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
Mfg yy: +3.40% vs. +3.50% exp. vs. +4.00% (r +3.80%) prev.


RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

EUR/JPY
Ternopil SMV 08:29 GMT 08/21/2014
Prof. traders. explain me please why eur/jpy going up without any reason for it. euro is very weak but this pair going up. Anybody explain, please!

August 2014 EZ flash PMI Estimates
GVI Forex john 08:17 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
EZ, German and French flash Services PMIs France gains modestly.


August 2014 EZ flash PMI Estimates
GVI Forex john 08:15 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
EZ, GE flash Mfg PMIs. all weakened.

August 2014 EZ flash PMI Estimates
GVI Forex john 08:03 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile




ALERT
EZ
mfg: 50.8 vs. 51.3 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.
svc: 53.5 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 54.3 prev.

France
mfg: 46.5 vs. 47.8 exp. vs. 47.8
svc: 51.1 vs. 50.2 exp. vs. 50.4

German
mfg: 52.0 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 52.4
svc: 56.4 vs. 55.5 exp. vs. 56.7


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

width="100" border="1" height="30">

August 2014 Japan flash PMI
GVI Forex john 07:59 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
EARLIER: Japan flash PMI. Second-tier release but improves. Above 50...

August 2014 China flash HSBC PMI
GVI Forex john 07:58 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
EARLIER: HSBC flash PMI weakens.


August 2014 China flash HSBC PMI
GVI Forex john 07:51 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile




Earlier
HSBC: 50.3 vs. 51.2 exp. vs. 51.7 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

August 2014 Japan flash PMI
GVI Forex john 07:50 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile




EARLIER NEWS ALERT
52.4 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 50.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Signals service
Dubai M 07:48 GMT 08/21/2014
Hey signals service you are risking 65 pips to make 34

That is not a risk-reward trade I would take

Alert: German PMI Next
GVI Forex 07:33 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Beats forecasts

MNI: GERMANY FLASH AUGUST COMPOSITE PMI 54.9; JULY 55.7

MNI: GERMANY FLASH AUG SERVICE PMI 56.4; MNI MEDIAN 55.7; JULY 56.7

MNI: GERMANY FLASH AUG MFG PMI 52.0; MNI MEDIAN 51.5; JULY 52.4

Signals service
London London 07:26 GMT 08/21/2014
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.32566 Target: 1.32323 Stop: 1.33210

FOMC to market: get ready, ‘cause here we come! The dollar gained across the board (again!) after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s latest meeting showed that the hawks within the FOMC are shifting the grounds of the debate. There was no discussion on whether a rate hike might be warranted; rather, the group only debated whether to begin raising rates earlier than they currently anticipate in light of the rise in inflation and the faster-than-expected improvement in the labor market. The key passage read: o “…many participants noted that if convergence toward the Committee’s objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated. Indeed, some participants viewed the actual and expected progress toward the Committee’s goals as sufficient to call for a relatively prompt move toward reducing policy accommodation to avoid overshooting the Committee’s unemployment and inflation objectives…”


Posted with permission of global-view.com

Autotrade forex signals


Alert: German PMI Next
GVI Forex 07:17 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:

-The German PMIs likely will reflect some moderation in activity, following the surprising strength recorded in July. On our estimate, both the headline manufacturing and services indexes decreased in August (to 52.1 and 54.3, respectively), likely driven by geopolitical developments. However, these levels would still be consistent with relatively resilient growth in Q3, in line with our forecast (0.3% qoq).

Source: FXWire Pro - Research & Analysis

Chna PMI
GVI Forex 07:09 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Out earlier

The HSBC/Markit Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 in August from July's 18-month high of 51.7, badly missing a Reuters forecast of 51.5.
RTRS

French PMI
GVI Forex 07:01 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
MNI: FRANCE FLASH AUG MFG PMI 46.5; MNI MEDIAN 47.8; JULY 47.8

MNI: FRANCE FLASH AUG SERVICE PMI 51.1; MNI MEDIAN 50.2; JULY 50.4 8

MNI: FRANCE FLASH AUGUST COMPOSITE PMI 50.0; JULY 49.4

EUR/JPY
Belgrade Knez 05:37 GMT 08/21/2014

Amman wfakhoury

I cannot find in your previous post about 137.03 lvl you mentioned, must be for your own clients only.

However, thanks for your answer.

EUR/JPY
Amman wfakhoury 05:23 GMT 08/21/2014
Belgrade Knez 16:41 GMT 08/20/2014

Amman wfakhoury

EUR/JPY never went to your tgt of 136.50 .... are you still waiting for that tgt to be hit, or different view now, please?

_______________________________________---
You ignored the second part of return level 137.03 we are now making money from adding sell above 13703.
when price closed below 13703 then we ar going to 136.50

GVI Forex Blog 04:39 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
(CN) CHINA AUG HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.3 V 51.5E (First sequential decline in 5 months; 3-month low) - (JP) JAPAN AUG MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.4 V 51.5E (5-month high; 3rd st

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Slump in China HSBC Flash PMI sends Aussie to 11-week lows - Source TradeTheNews.com


Global Markets News
Mtl JP 04:04 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
Nobel economists say policy blunders pushing Europe into depression

..."the eurozone needs joint debt issuance"... according to Professor Joseph Stiglitz
-
ya, that is the ticket: more, widely spread debt

GVI Forex Blog 03:37 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
The US markets kept the sentiment positive on the back of encouraging

Morning Briefing : 21-Aug-2014 -0337 GMT


AceTrader Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:26 GMT 08/21/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

21 Aug 2014 02:33GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo morning following yesterday's mildly hawkish FOMC minutes, price easily penetrated NY high at 103.85 at Tokyo open n climbed to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak of 103.96 as gain in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment.

As the follow-through buying from Asian traders indicates upside bias remains, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, however, investors should stay alert ahead of the daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) as only a firm rise above there would indicate an 'upside break' of 7-month broad range of 100.76-104.13 has taken place n yield further headway twd 105.00 later this month. Bids are noted at 103.70/60 n then 103.50/45 with stpps emerging below 103.30. On the upside, offers are placed at 104.00 n with mixture of offers n stops located at 104.10-20.

Pay attention to a slew of U.S. economic data starting with weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales. Another key event is the 3-day annual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Janet Yellen & ECB Governor Mario Draghi will both speak in the event on Fri.

USD/JPY - .... U.S. dollar strengthened to a 4-1/2 month high at 103.75 versus the Japanese yen after the release of FOMC minutes. Bids are now located at 103.60-50 and more at 103.30 with stops only seen below 103.20. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 103.85-95 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 104.00 option barrier.

Thursday will see the release of Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France's Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany's Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone's manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index and existing home sales. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins on Thursday.

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 01:28 GMT 08/21/2014


a little over 36 hours before Gammy's Speak-O-Rama is released

How low will it go? sub 1240?

just a licence fee
dc CB 01:15 GMT 08/21/2014
But a complication has emerged: Mr. Mozilo’s lawyers have cautioned the prosecutors in Los Angeles that their client has a serious illness. The prosecutors have sought Mr. Mozilo’s health records, the people said, though for now the case remains on track.

In a statement, Mr. Mozilo’s lawyer said that he would “not comment on reported rumors concerning any investigation.” He added, however, that “there is no sound or fair basis, in law or fact, to pursue any claim against Angelo Mozilo. This story has gone on more than long enough; Mr. Mozilo stands virtually alone among banking and mortgage executives to actually have been pursued by this government and already paid a record penalty” to the S.E.C.

Bloomberg News earlier reported the plans to file a lawsuit.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Too bad Angelo. You were a bit early. Now Orange is the new Black. Back then it weren't.

Bank of America Expected to Settle Huge Mortgage Case


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:53 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
1.3282 = daily pivot
1.3237 = S1
1.3212 = S2
1.3167 = S3

1.3223 = 61.,87% of 1.2745-1.3996

G-V Forex Chart :Points

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 00:53 GMT 08/21/2014


There is a story about the great Catalan surrealist painter Salvador Dali. It is said that in the last years of his life, when he was already famous, he signed checks knowing that they would not be submitted to the bank for payment. Rather, after partying with his friends and consuming the most expensive items the restaurants had to offer, he would ask for the bill, pull out one of his checks, write the amount, and sign it. Before handing over the check, he quickly turned it around, made a drawing on the back and autographed it. Dali knew the owner of the restaurant would not cash the check but keep it, put it in a frame, and display it in the most prominent place in the restaurant: “An original Dali.”

It was a good deal for Dali: his checks never came back to the bank to be cashed, and he still enjoyed great banquets with all of his friends. Dali had a magic checkbook.

Salvador Dali - Central Banker?


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:51 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

One of our GTA members has offered to share his simple but effective system with us.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 00:46 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index races to fresh 11-month highs

* Minutes showed Fed debated about raising interest rates earlier

* BOE minutes also surprise with two members voting to hike rates * China flash PMI survey next in focus

FOREX-Dollar rally finds new wings on hawkish-sounding Fed minutes


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
GVI Forex john 21:43 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile


August 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, DE, FR, US flash PMIs GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes
  • Far East: JP- flash PMI, CN- HSBC flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ, DE, FR, flash PMIs GB- Retail Sales
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless,flash MFG PMI, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes Sales, Natural Gas



Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

THURSDAY
1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ  MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Retail Sales
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 19:57 GMT 08/20/2014
Call it the Mary Barra effect. Ask Why she became the 1st Female CEO....oooopppppps all those ignition switch deaths and recalls....

Janet Yellen....ask why she is the 1st Female Chair.....oooooppppp alll those...?????????

But "she" din't Know

toasted Gammy?

Fed Dissenters Increasingly Vocal About Inflation Fears


Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:34 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 19:02 GMT 08/20/2014
nh

so for the next week, take a break from da news, CNBC, and staring at the chart screen. (Cramer's there in one of those episodes)

A cynic's holiday? Perfect immersion antidote to all that beheading type stuff. DOH JustinTime...

552 episodes – plus 2007's "The Simpsons Movie" – airing 24 hours a day through Sept. 1.

'The Simpsons' marathon on FXX


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:47 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
2015 Fed Funds futures !00% odds for one 25 bp rate hike by then and 60% adds on a second +25bp.

just a licence fee
Mtl JP 18:45 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Bank of America Reaches $17 Billion Settlement - wsj

Bank of America is expected to pay nearly $17 billion to settle U.S. Department of Justice accusations it packaged shoddy mortgages into securities and sold them to investors in the run-up to the financial crisis, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. 3 min ago

Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up
GVI Forex Blog 18:41 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP, CN, EZ, DE, FR, US, flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes

Thursday sees a slew of flash PMI reports, U.K. Retail Sales and several U.S. items. Fed policy minutes released in the early afternoon in NYC had a more hawkish tone than expected the 2-yr note increased to 0.46% +2bps vs. beforehand. This was USD constructive. Watch upcoming U.S. data closely.

Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Livingston nh 18:39 GMT 08/20/2014
cb -hea ha hheea ( choking )

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 18:31 GMT 08/20/2014


I'm goin' to Jackson, I'm gonna mess around
Yeah, I'm goin' to Jackson
Look out Jackson town)

wmBanzai7

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
dc CB 18:25 GMT 08/20/2014
The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath unleashed an instantaneous reaction to today's FOMC minutes and the message is clear - markets are much less uncertain than the Fed about the timing (sooner rather than later) of the first rate-hike

Via The Wall Street Journal,

Federal Reserve officials debated at their July meeting whether to move sooner than expected to start raising interest rates in light of an improving job market and rising inflation, but decided they needed more evidence before concluding that was the right approach.

Ben's Earbud Speaks


U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Livingston nh 18:23 GMT 08/20/2014
And now we direct your attention to the Center Ring at Jackson (I'm goin' to Jackson, I'm gonna mess around
Yeah, I'm goin' to Jackson
Look out Jackson town) where Fed Chair Yellen speaks - BUT will she confirm the Minutes or defend her True Believer position -- Bet she will defend

Faction politics at the Fed??


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