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02/09/14 3:30 A AU Australia Reserve Bank con: 2.50% pre: 2.50%
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September Newsletter
NY GTA 10:58 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

Thoughts from the Trading Trenches
September 1, 2014

In this issue:

- Is it EUR Weakness or USD Strength?
- Forex Trading Outlook for the Month Ahead (video update)
- NEW! Choose a Quality Broker

September Newslette- Thoughts from the Trading Trenches

GVI Forex Blog 10:49 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
September 1, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Reserve Bank Meeting, US- Mfg PMI's, , CA- Mfg PMI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 2, 2014

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 10:30 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

September 1, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Reserve Bank Meeting, US- Mfg PMI's, , CA- Mfg PMI
  • Far East: AU- Reserve Bank Meeting
  • Europe: EZ- PPI
  • North America: US- Mfg PMI's, Construction Spending, CA- Mfg PMI

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:14 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
Monday 1 September 2014
Market focus will primarily be on political developments and key events later in the week including the ECB meeting and US August payrolls. However, today sees data releases that are also of interest. In particular PMI data will give an indication of the strength of manufacturing in August. The “flash” PMI for the euro area was lower than July but remained above 50, suggesting that activity continued to rise. The final estimate is not expected to be significantly different. However, new data for the more peripheral economies will provide detail on the extent to which activity varied across the euro area.

The UK July manufacturing PMI posted its sharpest monthly decline in seventeen months. After a very strong first half, we doubt manufacturing growth will be sustained at quite the same pace in H2. However, the scale of the July drop is at odds with other indicators such as the CBI Industrial Trends total orders balance. This points to at least a modest recovery in the PMI in August.

UK mortgage approvals rose in June to 67.2k from 62.0k previously. This brought an end to the series of declines seen since the start of the year. However, BBA figures showed that approvals fell back again in July. While movements in BoE and BBA approvals do not always match, the BBA data cover nearly 70% of the BoE sample, so there will generally be a close correlation. Consequently, we expect BoE approvals to have also dropped and forecast a reading of 66.0K for August. While some of the weakness may be due to the introduction of the Mortgage Market Review earlier this year, the softness of the latest RICS survey suggests that underlying housing market activity may be cooling, especially

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

EUR Heat Map
nw kw 10:11 GMT 09/01/2014
NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)
0.3% -3.5% 1.8%

EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 10:10 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view. Mixed picture for EUR. Notable moves are its gain vs. JPY and loss vs. the kiwi. EURUSD steady.

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
nw kw 10:08 GMT 09/01/2014
UK construction has big rail over hall but they started to bicker its to brake even in 10years ap. and there isn't enough housing for long time and wages will always be unbalanced

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
nw kw 10:01 GMT 09/01/2014
chinas pull back is blamed on bank lending //is this the same for gbp or eur,i no war is part of it or is it all from the fitting if so gbp can retrace

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
Good points. I should be watching the UK construction PMI more closely!

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
london red 09:56 GMT 09/01/2014
take your point on pmis. i wouldnt say manf itself doesnt matter, because its still a big employer, but it makes up a v small part of gdp and given it is vulnerable to external factors, its probably a better indicator of whats going on in manf elsewhere eg. europe.
the construction pmi was a key early driver so will be keenly watched and i suspect a miss there will have greater effect on gbp. servs on wed is of course the biggie. i am still crunching for tomorrows construction, but cant see myself being at or abv consensus at the minute.

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 09:46 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
Red- yes. all valid points. I like the Manufacturing PMIs because they are much more sensitive to changes in business cycles. They are in a sense for me canaries in the coal mine.

Of course there is the question of whether the various PMIs have any predictive validity at all? For me the jury is still out on that question.

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 09:40 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
Today sees holidays in Canada and the U.S., but it is universal PMI data elsewhere. Generally the data have been disappointing. markets are in a mixed RISK posture. This week features an ECB meeting and U.S. jobs data.The EURUSD is opening the week steady.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.883%  -0.4bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.370%  +1.0bp. I see a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.343%, +0.0bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. share markets are closed.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
london red 09:38 GMT 09/01/2014
servs makes up 78% of gdp. manf and constn are less imp components, with constrn more insulated from external factors.

AceTrader Sept 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:28 GMT 09/01/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

01 Sep 2014 07:55GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Germany manufacturing grows at its slowest rate in 11 mths. The PMI figure came in weaker-than-expected at 51.4 vs forecast of 52.0.

Italy manufacturing slips back into contraction in August with the PMI read coming in at 49.8, lower than expectation of 50.8.

Euro pares intra-day losses in early European trading after hitting a fresh near 1-year low of 1.3119. Although range trading is seen ahead of release of a slew of EZ eco. data, offers at 1.3140/50 are likely to check present rebound. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is reported at 1.3105/00, therefore, steep fall may is unlikely be seen n trading may quieten down after European midday as markets in U.S. & Canada are closed for Labor Day holiday today.

News from Reuters, Ukraine President Poroshenko said, 'events of past few dats show that Russia has launched a direct and open aggression against Ukraine, will forsee high-level personnel changes in armed forces after events in Ukraine last week.'
Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov said, 'Ukrainian troops must leave positions from which they can fire on civilian targets, and expects contact group talks in Minsk today to address task of agreeing to immediate ceasefire without conditions. There will be no military intervention in Ukraine from Russia and Russia will defend its economy, citizens, business in response to sanctions.'

German statistics office showed that Geman Q2 final GDP confirmed at -0.2% Q/Q, +0.8% Y/Y.

The single currency showed muted reaction to the data n traded near intra-day fresh near 1-year trough at 1.3119. Bids are noted at 1.3110-00 n around 1.3080-70, whilst offers are placed at 1.3130-40 n then 1.3150/55 with stops emerging just abv 1.3170.

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
nw kw 09:25 GMT 09/01/2014
(servs is the main gdp driver//is it most dependent on north sea or construction //tks for fib at .7930

August 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
GVI Forex john 09:12 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMIs. Mixed flash revisions, but gloomy pattern overall. ECB Thursday.

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
london red 09:09 GMT 09/01/2014
cable. they were looking to buy dips before the miss and tbh didnt fall that far on a pretty big august miss and downwards revision for july (servs is the main gdp driver). proof will come at 6605 and the 10 day 6585. the latter must hold to have any chance of 200 day ma at 6690. eurgbp big fib at 7936 poss point of reversal but its some way off.

New signal
London London 08:57 GMT 09/01/2014
Entry: 1.31397 Target: 1.31 Stop: 1.31955

The dollar is starting the day higher against most other currencies as the market focused on the prospects for an improving US economy. Friday’s data showed that personal income rose less than expected and personal spending dropped unexpectedly in July, but the market preferred to focus on the jump in the Chicago PMI and the surge in consumer confidence, which reinforced the bull case for the dollar. The rising tensions in Ukraine are also helping the US currency, as the likely impact on the Eurozone economy of further sanctions on Russia can no longer be ignored. As a result, it is opening higher than its early Frida levels against all the G10 currencies except NZD. Among the EM currencies, the dollar was little changed on average. It gained against the Eastern European currencies, particularly RUB, as the Ukrainian situation worsened, but fell vs BRL.

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August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 08:46 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
U.K. Manufacturing PMI much weaker than forecast. Disastrous reading?

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:44 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
GBPCHF...easily could slip into 1.50 area

August 2014 Australia PMI
GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
AU PMI falls sharply, Volatile series.

August 2014 Australia PMI
GVI Forex john 08:34 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) slipped back into negative territory in August, following a short-lived stabilisation in July. The index decreased by 3.4 points to 47.3, indicating a mild contraction in activity across the sector (readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity).

August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile


52.5 vs. 55.1 exp. vs. 55.4 (r 54.8) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

August 2014 Australia PMI
GVI Forex 08:24 GMT 09/01/2014
it appears so. I am checking eldewhere.

August 2014 China PMI's
GVI Forex john 08:21 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
China PMIs miss expectations.

August 2014 Japan final PMI
GVI Forex john 08:17 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
EARLIER: Final Japanese PMI. flash PMI revised down...

August 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
GVI Forex john 08:11 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
EZ final Mfg PMI. Mixed revisions to Flash estimates...

GBPUSD 16679 confirmed reminder
Amman wfakhoury 08:04 GMT 09/01/2014
1.6636 reached again ..after it declined to 16500 area . it took 10 days to reach target in slow market motion.

August 2014 Japan final PMI
GVI Forex john 08:03 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

52.2 vs. 52.4 exp. vs. 52.4 flash.

Markit PMI Press Release


August 2014 China PMI's
GVI Forex john 08:01 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

NBS: 51.1 vs. 51.2 exp vs. 51.7 prev.
HSBC: 50.2 vs. 50.3 exp. vs. 50.3 flash

TTN: Live News Special Offer

August 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile


50.7 vs. 50.8 exp. vs. 50.8 (flash)
46.9 vs. 47.5 exp. vs. 46.5 (flash)
51.4 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.0 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

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August 2014 Australia PMI
nw kw 07:57 GMT 09/01/2014
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG)
47.3 50.7

is this right

GBPUSD 16679 confirmed reminder
Amman wfakhoury 07:56 GMT 09/01/2014
Amman wfakhoury 17:55 GMT August 20, 2014
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed : Reply
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed will be reached return level 16636
any decline below it will return to it.

August 2014 Australia PMI
GVI Forex john 07:54 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

Earlier News ALERT

58.2 vs. n/a exp. vs. 50.7 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 07:52 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
Just depends on what type of trader you are
using offsets from any close to place orders to avg
is very comfortable and systematic
My offsets are based on RMS (Root Mean Squared) Error

any close + / - the offset as a limit order will be fine

Pair TGT Date Trend Offset
EURUSD 12/1/2014 Long 0.0622
EURUSD 9/12/2014 Hold 0.0146
EURUSD 9/5/2014 Short 0.0097

GBPUSD 12/1/2014 Long 0.0784
GBPUSD 9/12/2014 Short 0.0248
GBPUSD 9/5/2014 Short 0.0122

USDCAD 9/5/2014 Long 0.0138

August 2014 Swiss PMI
GVI Forex john 07:50 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

Earlier data

52.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 54.3 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

Day's Trades
nw kw 07:47 GMT 09/01/2014
gbp/nzd day chart is trapped for brake out

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 07:38 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
USDJPY will keep shorting

SaaR KaL 07:37 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
1.6690 is nice Red
cause I am shorting from 1.6673 to 1.6734
might see 1.6240 area later in week

nw kw 07:37 GMT 09/01/2014
might be flight from eur/gbp giving gbp strength see if it drops badly or it shod

london red 07:30 GMT 09/01/2014
cable topside 6629 6677 6691/3 6722 6786 6810. 6810 is the very maximum i see it even if data beats strongly all week. but its not a base case. 200 day ma (6693)likely to top on a closing basis.

nw kw 07:26 GMT 09/01/2014
hang seng defensive poss gbpaud back to 1.8//xaugbp indicating gbp strength for now or there's no fear in the pending print //gbp/jpy or g/n

Cape Town LV 07:17 GMT 09/01/2014
Cable also now midway between R1 and R2 pivots. Will check for retest of R1 for possible Short

london red 06:57 GMT 09/01/2014
76.4 fib at 16629, cable should sit around there until manf pmi later in the morning. external factors may lead to a miss there and test of 16605. further support from 10 day ma at 16585. below there, bears take hold for 16537 test.

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
With the US market closed today on account of Labor Day, the other

Morning Briefing : 01-Sep-2014 -0340GMT

Lobster trapping
Mtl JP 02:55 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile
That is the new cost of trying to dump US citizenship

AceTrader Sept 1:Daily Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:25 GMT 09/01/2014


Update Time: 01 Sep 2014 01:00 GMT

Euro's intra-day breach of last Friday's fresh near 1-year low at 1.3132 after ECB's Coeure's dovish comments on Reuters Saturaday signals mid-term downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has resumed and further weakness to daily objective at 1.3105 and then 1.3060/70 would be seen before correction occurs due to 'loss of momentum'.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3160 would indicate a temporarty low has been made and risk retracement towards 1.3196 but last week top at 1.3221 should remain intact.

China PMI
GVI Forex 01:52 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

China PMI
GVI Forex 01:25 GMT 09/01/2014  - My Profile

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