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FOREX FORUM
17/04/14 12:30 CA BOC CPI Feb y con: 1.30% pre: 1.20%
17/04/14 12:30 CA CPI mm con: 0.30% pre: 0.80%
17/04/14 12:30 CA CPI yy con: 1.40% pre: 1.10%
17/04/14 12:30 US Initial Claims con: 315 pre: 300
17/04/14 12:30 US Cont Claims con: 2.795 pre: 2.776
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Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:00 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands



U.S. Fed Beige Book
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:53 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
vs 119 in the prior Beige Book

U.S. Fed Beige Book
PAR 18:19 GMT 04/16/2014
" Weather " mentioned 103 times in Beige Book

Fed late to realise what is happening

U.S. Fed Beige Book
PAR 18:19 GMT 04/16/2014
" Weather " mentioned 103 times in Beige Book

Fed late to realise what is happening

Mixed U.S. data. UK Jobs Better. EZ Final HICP Steady to Lower. China GDP Better than Seen
GVI Forex Blog 18:04 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CA- CPI, US- Initial Claims, Philly Fed

Trading slowed late Wednesday as markets wound down ahead of the Easter break that starts as early as Thursday in some centers and can run through Monday for some. Thursday sees some important releases.

Mixed U.S. data. UK Jobs Better. EZ Final HICP Steady to Lower. China GDP Better than Seen


U.S. Fed Beige Book
GVI Forex john 18:02 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Economic activity improving with weather.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Yellen
PAR 17:38 GMT 04/16/2014
Clap along if you feel happy like a room without a roof

1 lower dollar boost Us exports

2 higher stock market boost bank and bankers capital

3 perpetual low rates protect $ 5 trillion fed bond portfolio

Yellen
GVI Forex 17:21 GMT 04/16/2014
Finished. No big news.

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:16 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Bottom line, no rush to raise rates but data dependent.

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:10 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Yellen: Dovish but...

Better chance of an inflation undershoot than overshoot.

Confident that Fed has tools to tighten policy when it is appropriate.

Global-View Slow
GVI Forex john 17:07 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Our techs are attempting to address the issue. Thank you for your patience.

Fixed Income Snapshot
Mtl JP 17:06 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
stox will not be liking more expensive and less accessible money

Fixed Income Snapshot
Mtl JP 16:58 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
according to Yellen: healthy economy within reach
-
time for taper to zero, 10-yr to 5%+ and disband the FED ?

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:56 GMT 04/16/2014
Yellen prepared text dovish but should not be a surprise.

Q&A is coming up and the main focus

Fixed Income Snapshot
Mtl JP 16:39 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Yellen: Forward guidance will continue to evolve
Yellen: Forward guidance can serve as stabilizer
-
i.e trust bs at your own risk

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex john 16:32 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Soothing comments from Yellen

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 16:10 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
pretty amazing how choosing the euro/dlr as "Best Trade Today" pony is probably the worst choice one could have made over that last few days

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 15:54 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Yellen Speech will have Q&A afterwards which will be carried live by CNBC. Her prepared text presumably will be released in advance on the wires. We assume that will be at 16:15 GMT.

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex john 15:51 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are ending weaker in response the rally today in equities. The peripheral European bond prices are higher.

European bourses are closing higher. U.S. bourses are stronger. Far East stock markets closed up earlier. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.64%, +2 bp.



Oil
Cambridge Joe 15:45 GMT 04/16/2014


'Cambridge Joe 09:27 GMT 04/16/2014
Sold oil 104.60. .... ! This time.. Aaamm eatin FOOOD tonite !'

----------

Yess ! Thank you Mkt !

USDJPY
PAR 15:41 GMT 04/16/2014
Stops building in USDJPY above 102.50 could be rather big.

eurusd
Tallinn viies 15:39 GMT 04/16/2014
DJ story - A so-called fat finger error has seen the EUR/CHF exchange rate pushing to 1.2209 Wednesday, before settling back to the previous level around 1.217. A fat finger error describes a mistake made by hitting the wrong key in an electronic keyboard and this was the cause of the glitch according to a senior trader. EUR/CHF has been trading quietly for some weeks now. "We broke above 1.2210 following the ECB as USD strength was expressed more significantly against the CHF than the EUR," says Neil Staines, head of trading at ECU Group, adding that since then, the consistent unwinding of EUR/CHF positions has taken the currencies to a low of just above 1.2140.

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 15:38 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
10-yr last 2.643% +2bp

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 15:36 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Yellen speech at 16:15 GMT is expected to focus on policy. This is her chance to "correct" or adjust market perceptions about the course of future policy. This is an opportunity to clarify her comments made at her last press conference.

Its possible that she may choose to say nothing new simply because she has nothing new to say. If she says nothing it might be that she does not want to compound the error by saying something that will have to be changed again in the future.

EUR/CHF
NY JM 15:14 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Caba, Can you explain the fat finger move?

EUR/CHF
Phila Caba 15:04 GMT 04/16/2014
Fat finger?

STOX
Livingston nh 14:33 GMT 04/16/2014
One of the major Friday distortions is that this week April options expiration loses a day of underlying trading so today may trade like a Thurs (some of that yesterday) - and as Jay has reminded "thin is in"

US EIA Weekly Inventories
GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +10.000 vs. +1.500 exp vs. +4.030 prev.
Gasoline: -0.155 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -5.190 prev.
Distillates:-1.300 vs. 0 exp vs. +0.240 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.80% vs. 87.60% exp vs. n/a prev

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Data Outlook for April 17, 201
GVI Forex Blog 14:19 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
April 16, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, April 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, CA- CPI, US- Initial Claims, Philly Fed. Far East: JP- Industrial Output

GVI Forex Data Outlook for April 17, 2014


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile


April 16, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, April 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, CA- CPI, US- Initial Claims, Philly Fed.
  • Far East: JP- Industrial Output.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: CA- CPI, US- Initial Claims, Philly Fed, Natural Gas, Early Closes.



Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:11 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EURUSD 1.3831 (I am using 1.3830-35) has been flipping between support and resistance recently. it was intra-day support until the dip below it on the IP data so now a minor resistance although the key level is at 1.3845-50.

April 2014 Bank of Canada Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
"...The lower Canadian dollar should provide additional support. We continue to believe that rising global demand for Canadian goods and services, combined with the assumed high level of oil prices, will stimulate business investment in Canada and shift the economy to a more sustainable growth track.

Recent developments are in line with the Bank’s expectation of a soft landing in the housing market and stabilizing debt-to-income ratios for households. Still, household imbalances remain elevated and would pose a significant risk should economic conditions deteriorate.

In sum, the Bank continues to see a gradual strengthening in the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in Canada. This view hinges critically on the projected upturn in exports and investment. With underlying inflation expected to remain below target for some time, the downside risks to inflation remain important. At the same time, the risks associated with household imbalances remain elevated. The Bank judges that the balance of these risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences the balance of risks."



Yellen Speech
GVI Forex john 13:57 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery
At the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York
12:25 p.m. ET

Bank of Canada
GVI Forex john 13:29 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
No rate change is expected at the top of the hour. The focus will be on the tone of the policy statement. Presumably the BOC will want to avoid any language that will drive the CAD higher.

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:28 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
For those who didn't request my outlook video, EURUSD and GBPUSD resistance so far proving to be good levels.

March 2014 U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
GVI Forex john 13:17 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
Ind Prod: +0.70% v +0.50% exp v +0.60% (r 1.20%) pre
Cap Util: 79.20% v 78.80% exp v 78.40% pre


RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



TTN: Live News Special Offer




Ukraine
PAR 12:45 GMT 04/16/2014
Massive defections of Ukraine military to pro Russia activists

March 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)
GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile


New Homes Starts and Permits. Weaker than expected.



March 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)
GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Starts: 946 vs. 968 exp. vs. 907 (r 920) prev.
Permits: 990 vs. 995 exp. vs. 1018 prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources



How to Trade Political Markets
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:00 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
ALERT
Entry: Target: Stop:

This is a timely article for the current market where Ukraine has been a factor.

How to Trade Political Markets


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:53 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
TECH TALK
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBPUSD facing key resistance, EURUSD faces resistance as well, USDJPY finally cracks 102 but key mvas loom above.

All covered in my Daily Forex Trading Outlook video

Contact me to get a copy of today's outlook

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:43 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
JP, great call.

Buy and hold trumped hit and run

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 15:36 GMT 04/15/2014 - My Profile
Buy USDJPY
Entry: market Target: open Stop: sub 101.50

I am NOT calling this Best Trade Today, just one of few

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 10:49 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
Since we always return to the equity markets every day, Its my feeling that the late day rally in U.S. shares was triggered by a short squeeze in thin pre-holiday conditions. Its safe to assume that markets will be even thinner today and Thursday. Many U.S. markets will be trading abbreviated sessions on Thursday.

Market levels today suggest this could be a "risk-on" session, but I still doubt that anyone will be wanting to run "risk" positions into the weekend with the Ukraine situation still unsettled.

Forex markets seem to be going with the flow with the S&P to USDJPY correlation working very closely. UK employment data earlier have given the GBP a lift while final EZ HICP do nothing to ease the pressure on the ECB to ease policy. As for China, 1Q14 GDP data were better than feared and probably will forestall additional economic stimulus from the government. Use the AUD as the CNY proxy,

Thoughts?

STAGE 2: Ukr. army+ isurgents move on Kiev to get the..
HK RF@ 10:26 GMT 04/16/2014


Probably this will be the mother of all battles.

STAGE 2: Ukr. army+ isurgent move on Kiev to get the...
HK RF@ 10:24 GMT 04/16/2014


FASCISTS, and CIA agents.

Even the Ukr. soldiers don't want to get orders from the CIA.
HK RF@ 10:19 GMT 04/16/2014


The vehicles stopped near the city administration building and flew Russian flags while residents chanted "Good job! Good job!"

One of the men who came in the vehicles, who identified himself only as Andrei, said the unit was part of Ukraine's 25th Brigade of Airborne Forces and that they have switched to the side of the pro-Russian forces.

Kramatorsk locals stop Ukrainian tanks, persuade soldiers to leave
------------------------------------------------------------
If you read my previous post, I then suggested the UKR army will defect and join the Russian army.
------------------------------------------------------------


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:05 GMT 04/16/2014  - My Profile
The GBP was firmer after the UK employment picture continued its improvement. UK ILO Unemployment Rate moved below the BOE 7.0% threshold (**Note back in Feb the central bank stated that it would look at a broader range of economic indicators). The Claimant Count registered its 17 straight month of improvement.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Tensions escalate over Ukraine; European Q1 results remain mixed and negatively impacted by currencies



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