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FOREX FORUM
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn con: 1.75 pre: -4.47
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn con: -1.625 pre: 0.59
27/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn con: -0.75 pre: -0.96
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util con: n/a pre: 93.40%
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Morning
nw kw 12:44 GMT 08/27/2014
I see tks

Morning
london red 12:26 GMT 08/27/2014
i have 05, the 10 day at 13, 200 hour at 18, 30 (23.6 of 148/172), 42 200 month. if thru 50 youll get a lot of momentum short covering, unhampered probably up to 75/80 where folk will start selling ahead of a really big pack of res from 90 to the fig.

Morning
Livingston nh 12:19 GMT 08/27/2014
1. Yields in EU continue to confound -- what is the expected purpose of ECB QE?? Lower rates ?? LTRO as a cure for what -- the rates would exceed anything the bank could earn on the borrowed funds?? // maybe EUR rally after ECB measures fail to appear or fall short of rational expectation // SNB may be getting nervous below EUR/CHF 50

2. Sterling "strength" has been blamed by UK companies for performance problems (e.g., WPP) - EUR/GBP keeps pressure on BoE w/ only a narrow window for hikes // if market pushes rate hike expectations out beyond May that would cure "strength" pretty quick

3. Last but not least AUD/USD back up near wkly 21/55 MAs - 94.55 is 89 ema so between here and there might be a long term sell point


Morning
nw kw 11:50 GMT 08/27/2014
6623

Morning
nw kw 11:49 GMT 08/27/2014
red- wares ferst stall g/b r

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Cape May jb 11:48 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD pivot support #1 (1.3156) already tested 1.3153 low. I would not put 1.3156 aside yet as possible support. 1.3185 pivot a focus.

Morning
nw kw 11:44 GMT 08/27/2014
cot shod be adding longs now must have momentum wee see tks e/g helping he he

Morning
london red 11:38 GMT 08/27/2014
gbp/jpy not following but cable 16605/10 historical important. if 200 hour cannot cap then they move towards 16690/167. well worth a short or 1/2 week put there.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Trading Perspectives 11:36 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data.. Basis previous session ranges...



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



Morning
nw kw 11:32 GMT 08/27/2014
red -you up

Morning
nw kw 11:23 GMT 08/27/2014
4h chart

Morning
nw kw 11:22 GMT 08/27/2014
still adding do you see a retrace

Morning
nw kw 11:20 GMT 08/27/2014
175. gives it room for 182

Morning
nw kw 11:19 GMT 08/27/2014
swing up???????????????

Morning
nw kw 11:18 GMT 08/27/2014
do have up swill gbp/jpy in for a spike

Draghi s Dolce Vita
PAR 11:12 GMT 08/27/2014
Draghi's summertime party continues. Draghi will buy anything at any price . More limoncello please .

Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble
Mtl JP 10:59 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Ukraine's PM says Russia plans to block gas flows to Europe

Aug 27, 2014 (Reuters) - Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said on Wednesday that Kiev knew of plans by Russia to halt gas flows this winter to Europe, in comments which are likely to escalate the standoff between Moscow and the West. ../.

EUR Heat Map
Trading Perspectives j 10:38 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view.
EUR broadly mixed, suggesting this is not a EUR market at the moment. That can change. Note especially that EURCAD and EURNZD are sharply higher. EURUSD higher but below 1.3200.




Morning
sd sf 10:31 GMT 08/27/2014
GBP - just seeing selling to t/p @82-83

bots just trading the indicators.

Trader Alert: Beware of Forex Bucket Shops
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:31 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile


I get asked a lot for suggestions about specific brokers and which broker to choose. Some brokers I never heard of and it got me to thinking about the different tiers of forex brokers. It also got me to thinking about the term forex “bucket shop.” This generally refers to a broker who “buckets” all or most of its trades and takes them on its own books without going to the market (it may pass through the trades of profitable traders only). In other words, it is betting on the statistics that most retail forex traders lose money and thus is willing to take the other side of most trades. The question is why should you care?

Trader Alert: Beware of Forex Bucket Shops


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:14 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
The USD consolidated its recent gains despite some economic misses out of the EMU data front today. The EUR/USD was trying to regain some posture above the 1.32 handle. The pair hit a fresh 11-month ow in Asia at 1.3152. Some Euro short-covering was encountered after reports that Germany Fin Min Schaeuble believed that ECBs' Draghi's comments at Jackson Hole on growth austerity debate might have been 'over interpreted'. Overall dealers continue to believe that Euro upside would be curtailed given the weakness in data.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European confidence data looking shaky in session as numerous countries miss expectations


morning obs
Cape May jb 10:13 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
I've always wondered about the mechanics of cross-border take-overs. There is no way money will be transferred until the transaction has been approved by all parties, including government authorities. On the other hand, at some point a price has to be fixed, and that includes the exchange rate. That could be done early on via forward contracts, which would not involve a transfer of funds, but would immediately impact the forex markets.

Whether they hedge or not, either way the parties are taking a significant exchange risk depending on whether the deal goes though or not. Keep in mind, these days a lot of deals ultimately don't happen.

Anyone have thoughts?

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:53 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
See below for my Trade of the day video update on GVI Forex. Send me an EMAIL if you would like access to my daily video updates.

Forex Trade of the Day


EURUSD levels are clear, gap still us filled, note We'd is often a correction day but only 1.32+ would put the gap in play

morning obs
london red 09:33 GMT 08/27/2014
i heard that mentioned too, but in regards to it being a bit early down the road to be a factor, although its a headwind all the same. im hearing more month end and long weekend profit take.
200 day looks at risk as if we see some dollar sales in the major then you fancy loonie wont stay where it is. thing risk to 10840-60 possible, but think longs down there with stops under 1.08 should work for 1.10 in sept.

morning obs
UK CT 09:25 GMT 08/27/2014
Is 11.5bn Burger King takeover of Tim Horten why USDCAD is lower

Markets Setting Up for More ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Scant Data Due Today
GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- 5-yr Auction

The only key event Wednesday is the 5-yr auction. Major data follow later in the month. A key focus of trade otherwise is the upcoming ECB decision in just over one week's time where ECB President Draghi is expected to announce or at least hint at additional policy ease. We heard (unconfirmed) of reports of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. This is possible. .

Markets Setting Up for More ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Scant Data Due Today


AceTrader Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:03 GMT 08/27/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

27 Aug 2014 08:43GMT

GBP/USD -..... Despite a marginal breach of yesterday's low at 1.6539 to 1.6537 at Asian open, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering n the British pound rose to 1.6575 in early European morning. However, renewed selling emerged there n pressured the pair lower to 1.6554. Further choppy trading is likely to be seen ahead of NY open due partly to the absence of eco. data releases from UK.

Offers have now been raised to 1.6590/00 n more abv at 1.6610/15 with stops building up abv there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.6520/30.

This morning trading cable was tricky on Tue as despite an initial rebound from 1.6566 to 1.6595 in Asia, renewed broad-based strength in greenback capped intra-day gain n the pound later fell in tandem with euro to 1.6540 near NY close. Price briefly weakened to 1.6537 shortly after Asian open on renewed decline in eur/usd, however, bids abv Mon's fresh 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535 lifted price.

Bids are noted at 1.6540-35 with stop below 1.6530 but demand from real money accounts are touted near 1.6500/05. On the upside, offers are located at 1.6560/70 n more at 1.6590/00 with stop reported abv 1.6620, therefore, selling cable on intra-day recovery is the way to go. No U.K. data are due out today, so the pound shud track intra-day move in eur/usd.

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 08:57 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
Early in Europe markets are in a mixed  RISK posture again with equities up and bond yields lower..Additional ECB ease at its meeting in just over one week's time is already being priced in.  EURUSD.is holding below the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen on the dovish ECB view. The 10-yr bund is 0.92%  -3bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.43%  -2bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.37%, -2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are slightly lower. U.S. shares are up..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



European Markets
PAR 08:47 GMT 08/27/2014
German government bond yields are now negative out to 3 years

European Markets
PAR 08:22 GMT 08/27/2014
European markets moving higher on Ukraine peace prospects and expectations of more spectacular actions by Super Mario next week .

morning obs
london red 07:17 GMT 08/27/2014
cad has pierced 23.6% at 10908 and now targets the 200 day ma at 10885. cable fails to break 16537 fib convincingly a second time and 16605 remains in play. some reasonable volume on london open came with this morning spike higher.
finally it seems we are getting some profit taking, whether its month end or pre long weekend i dont know, but it shouldnt mean the dollar run is over medium term.

Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People
PAR 06:57 GMT 08/27/2014
Better than to use QE to finance stock buy backs and taxs inversion deals benefitting bankers and the 1% .

Ukraine
sd sf 06:12 GMT 08/27/2014
Putin says they should be negotiating with the Separatists and not Russia.

Hollande
PAR 06:06 GMT 08/27/2014
Not certain new French government has a majoity in the parlement .

Ukraine
PAR 05:45 GMT 08/27/2014
Russia and Ukraine closer to peace deal after meeting between Putin and Poroshenko .

GVI Forex Blog 04:25 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE Q/Q: -1.2% V -0.5%E (largest decline in 5 quarters) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JULY FOOD PRICES M/M: -0.7% V +1.4% PRIOR (first decline in 4 months) - (KR) SOUTH KORE

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Fonterra reaches partnership in China; Putin, Poroshenko commit to political process - Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Forex Blog 03:39 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
The rally ignited by Draghi goes on and some solid US

Morning Briefing : 27-Aug-2014 -0339 GMT


DJ Overvalued Australian Dollar May Be Risk to Living Standards -- Market Talk
Syd 03:18 GMT 08/27/2014
The Reserve Bank of Australia's desire for a lower Australian dollar is not surprising, says Su-Lin Ong, Head of Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Australia. "The alternative hints at lower national income and living standards," she adds. Lost external competitiveness resulting from the high currency, which is 20% above its long term average, means wages must fall to compensate, she said. The environment supports Ong's expectation of falling national income, sub par consumption, and a lower-for-longer central bank narrative regarding interest rates. The risk is that rigidities in the labor market prevent meaningful competitiveness gains, pushing the unemployment rate higher, she added. "That would keep the RBA in play," Ong said.

DJ Downside Risk to Australian 2Q GDP Forecast -- Market Talk
Syd 03:17 GMT 08/27/2014
1.2% fall in the value of Australian construction work done in the second quarter compared with the first has put a dent in expectations for GDP growth forecasts. Adam Boyton, chief economist at Deutsche Bank said there are now downside risks to his call for GDP growth of just 0.5% in the quarter, to be reported in a week's time. The main downside concern was a big fall in private engineering construction, where Boyton had expected a gain.

A note on Chinese real estate concerns – Aussie seems the play on the FX side
Syd 03:16 GMT 08/27/2014
I’ve written here before (and maybe it is a bit of hyperbole on my part) saying Australia has become a
satellite country of China, from an economic perspective. Maybe that isn’t true, but there still seems
plenty of fallout left for the Australian economy whose massive build in mining capacity coincided
nicely with the boom in Chinese real estate.

link


AceTrader Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:12 GMT 08/27/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

27 Aug 2014 01:55GMT
EUR/USD - .... The single currency continues its recent losing streak and easily penetrated o/n NY low at 1.3164 to a fresh near 1-year trough of 1.315q after tripping stops below said yesterday low, however, bids above rumoured 1.3150 option barrier contained intra-day weakness.

We may well see a repeat of the price action seen in last 2 days in Asia, that is euro hits intra-day lows at Asian open n then stages a decent recovery into European open b4 coming off later in the day, so chasing present decline is not a good bet. Bids are noted at 1.3150 n more above daily sup at 1.3105, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3175/80 n more above would stop (fairly large) touted above 1.3220, suggesting selling the single currency on rally is the way to go.

Eco. data from the EZ today which may move price are Germany Gfk consumer confidence index at 06:00GMT, then French bus. confidence at 06:45GMT and then Italy's consumer confidence at 08:00GMT. No data are due out from the U.S. today.

News from last night, Russia's Utair airline said its MI-8 helicopter was shot down in South Sudan, according to preliminary information.
Three regional Federal Reserve banks, Philadelphia, Kansas city, Dallas Federal Reserve banks renewed requests to raise discount rate by 25 basis points to 1% ahead of July FOMC meeting, according to minutes on Tuesday. U.S. dollar rose broadly against major currencies in late New York.
U.S. welcomes Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, urges parties to fully and completely comply with its terms and hopes it will be durable.


Wednesday will see the release of Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France's business climate and Italy's consumer confidence. Investors are waiting for eurozone inflation data on Friday.

The Neverending Search for Forex Equilibrium
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:30 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile


This is my latest article and a timely one as it explains fx price action and should help you put it in perspective.

The Neverending Search for Forex Equilibrium

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 01:27 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index hits 13-month highs, breaks above Sept 5 peak

* Upbeat U.S. data in contrast to dour euro zone outlook

* Euro struggles as markets see more ECB easing

FOREX-Dollar flies high as euro struggles on ECB easing expectations


Change
sd sf 01:15 GMT 08/27/2014
something else on the day in Asia that is different from the last week.

everyday NZD has had its high around 9 am Sydney and sold off 40-50 points per day.

today around that time the low was put in around that 28 level and ever since it has climbed higher.

not sure what that means for the other markets - but I just point it out as being a change in pattern.

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:11 GMT 08/27/2014  - My Profile
Send me an EMAIL if you want a copy of my Trade of the Day video update for Wednesday

Morning
sd sf 23:52 GMT 08/26/2014
have not had much to say really that would interest anyone.

This morning however 3 different models came in to buy @41-42 in GBP and it was still quite offered until another model kicked in and bght @40.5 - that seemed to affirm o/sold and stabilize it at the 45-46-47 levels.

eurusd less models but same thing at 67/67.7 area.

We are basically in a news driven market - with condensed ranges in the mean time.

Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People
Mtl JP 21:54 GMT 08/26/2014  - My Profile
yeah... lets distrubute its
T o t a l a s s e t s: $461,885,500
to The People !

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:03 GMT 08/26/2014  - My Profile


August 26, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- 5-yr Auction
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, 5-yr



Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People
dc CB 21:00 GMT 08/26/2014
because it was published by the Council on Foreign Relations.

about the CFR



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