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06/03/15 20:30 US COT Report con: n/a pre: n/a
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Looks like a black Friday for now:(
HK RF@ 17:24 GMT 03/06/2015


Dow likes 17800.

DOW
HK RF@ 17:19 GMT 03/06/2015


SnP secured target for now mostlikely 2070.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 17:13 GMT 03/06/2015
Good News is Bad News -- ordinary risk off (DOW -200pts) sees flows into treasurys but the risk on Good News is Treasurys at risk -- so folks are hiding in the USD?

See some comments here about long term charts -- 1984, 1994, 2004 tightenings and effex on various markets -- not a strong dollar yet, just recovering so far (every chart should be viewed in the context of the conditions at the time)

DOW
PAR 16:56 GMT 03/06/2015
Long S&P 2078 . Waiting for PPT . We are not going to close here . Dont spoil the weekend ?

DOW
Paris ib 16:53 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
RF@ :-)

DOW
HK RF@ 16:52 GMT 03/06/2015

ib

So let's call it for a while an opportunity for bargain hunting, if there is any crazy to enter the Mkt, at this level.

Draghi & the Euro
PAR 16:52 GMT 03/06/2015
From 1.4500 to 1.0850. The Italian Job .

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 16:48 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Markets in U.S. and Europe do not like the U.S. data. Bond yields are spiking higher in anticipation of a FED "tightening".

I think of it more as an excuse to take profits.

DOW
Paris ib 16:46 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
NFP - even though it is a dud statistic - often mark a turning point for financial markets. We'll see at the close today if we are at one now.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 16:44 GMT 03/06/2015
jun 10 risk on/off switch 126.38. current 126.10.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 16:42 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile


BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 16:39 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT March 6, 2015
BREAKING NEWS: Reply
AAPL joining DJ on March 18 replaces ATT.

Sometimes this can be a signal of a top?



Well done John.

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 16:38 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
•Key oil market reports a driver of commodities sentiment
•Pulse of US consumer key to Fed ‘patience’ after a mixed February employment report
•Greece still a potential source of market anxiety as ECB buying begins

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AWAIT A PATIENT FED


Mkts
Paris ib 16:38 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
RF@ I wouldn't get too excited right now. A turn is not usually that easy. Especially when its significant. The bouncing around could be shocking. So hold tight. :-)

DOW
nw kw 16:38 GMT 03/06/2015
last time s&p dropped and growth stocks ran back up bin hear before by big dip/ sectors keep I on

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 16:36 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Bet there are a whole lot of smug Germans around at the moment. They should not be so smug. Their policies are crazy. Greeks were pretty smug too at one point. That worked out well. Not.

Mkts
HK RF@ 16:36 GMT 03/06/2015


If this will go on or escalate, by Mon. morning Asia will get infected.

Will see if Europe will volunteer to be the goalkeeper.

DOW
Paris ib 16:34 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
red the bottom line is that the U.S. can not afford to pay significantly higher bond yields. So it won't. How we get lower bond yields is the question. Quickest route: stock market softness.

DOW
london red 16:32 GMT 03/06/2015
10yr starting to take notice of still small stock losses. and thats affecting yen.

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 16:32 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
DAX confirms record close. The U.S. stock market is the most vulnerable of the majors and will probably crack first. The Germans won't be immune to this. You can't have a stellar economy when global economic growth is tanking all around you. But they won't be first into the mess.

EURO outlook
gc sf 16:30 GMT 03/06/2015
I suppose the last line of defence for EUR for the next 2-3 days

is this 1.080/1.0850 zone .. as if it trades through there then you have to prepare for 1.0500/1.0550

I think the close today tells us how strong the buying is + how many stops maybe lying below here ... something around 1.0900/10 says pretty good bids and we will need consolidation ... anything 1.0865 or below says - we could be looking at 100 pt gap on the open Monday.

EURO outlook
Paris ib 16:26 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
CS I agree with you re the temporary nature of the USD rally. It's misguided and won't last. I'm not sure how much upside it has but the market is way too complacent on this. That said I'm not much interested in picking the top in the USD. Yet. But I do think we are heading towards a once in a lifetime opportunity in the stock market. To sell that is. Start out in stocks. Move to FX a bit after that. No need to rush. The maniacs in charge have pushed this to unbelievable extremes. We can't do much about that. Just not get crushed when it turns and hopefully make some money. After which we should go out and lock up these nut cases and take away their power to do this again. gl gt :-)

DOW
HK RF@ 16:25 GMT 03/06/2015


Or try to crash the usd/yen hehe. But for now it has the symptoms of panic selling(not looks like a healthy correction)

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 16:21 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
DAX holding onto gains and expected to close on another record high. The rest of Europe is in negative territory (or at best flat). U.S. stock markets taking a hit. Our Central Banker friends can pat themselves on the back as much as they like. They should be all locked up in padded cells for their own safety and ours.

EURO outlook
FW CS 16:20 GMT 03/06/2015
ib
or desperation. Now ask this if the 8-9 trillion dolllars worth of $ carry trades are covered that would create a lot of temporary $ demand. Anyways this $ rally I believe is temporary but it has a lot of upside left.

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:17 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
John, amazing how it works

S3 1.0845 (EURUSD LOD)

DOW
Paris ib 16:11 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Wadda they gonna do? Start talking the USD down?

DOW
HK RF@ 16:07 GMT 03/06/2015

Damage control has to be immediately applied, or we are on the way to 17900 target.

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 16:00 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD Market of Limits
Even on a big move day
S3 1.0845 (EURUSD LOD)

EURO outlook
Paris ib 15:59 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Capital inflows into the States peaked just before the financial crash. This strong dollar policy - to date - has not seen increased capital inflows - the mirror image of the current account. All the U.S. is getting out of this is higher yields. So a higher cost of funding the government and a worse trade policy. This is madness. Totally misguided. IMVHO. What worked for Rubin and Clinton will not work now. There is too much water under the bridge for that. Too many very serious geopolitical mistakes which have undermined the status of the USD. Plus China's move to create a non USD trading environment. Things have changed.

U.S. Current Account Balance


EURO outlook
Paris ib 15:54 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
CS if that's their policy I think they are mad. And dumb. Seriously stupid. The real economy must be screaming.

EURO outlook
FW CS 15:52 GMT 03/06/2015
ib.

I believe the U.S. and Europe must have made a closed door deal on this. I cant prove that but the US has had ample opportunity to stop this $ rally. The US must need this strong $ as you said maybe to finance the trade deficit and budget deficit in the hopes of attracting capital. Not a good way to do it by forcing $ shorts to cover but that is a way to create dollar demand.

EURO outlook
Paris ib 15:47 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Jay I have been expecting the Euro to remain under pressure while the Greek debacle and the Ukraine crisis played out. Neither are over yet. I also noted the positive impact on European financial markets of a weaker currency. What I can't work out is how come the U.S. is so passive about this. Do Americans really believe that the stronger USD will be positive for the U.S. economy in the medium term? On a side note I still expect the USDs role as an international reserve currency has and is being undermined. That does not directly impact the exchange rate.

EURO outlook
london red 15:44 GMT 03/06/2015
yes that a gd pt Jay and can be referenced to usdjpy. where the initial rally was fuelled by censored qe, todays breakout if sustained on the close is fuelled by the anticipation of us rates going up. history tells us boj tends not to get involved early on in such a (us based) cycle, not until price action becomes too quick.

EURO outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:40 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
ib, unless I read it wrong, you have been making a case against the dollar for some time yet it keeps rising. I understand the points but when monetary policies are diverging + QE coming (and being front run) the markets are getting a green light.

EURO outlook
Paris ib 15:35 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Jay QE hasn't even started yet in the EuroZone. Stocks are up IMVHO on the back of the weaker Euro. Germany is an export machine. So it's getting all its Christmases in one go. Low rates (ultra low rates), a weak exchange rate, control over the rest of Europe and an ever improving export performance. I can not understand why the U.S. is going along with this. They are getting killed: rising yields (higher cost of funding), strong USD (worse trade performance). What's the upside here?

EURO outlook
london red 15:32 GMT 03/06/2015
no need to agree or disagree. as long as you are making money, keep doing what works for you.
10886 is in there as well ultra st. go abv and it would rule out further lows today for me.

EURO outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:31 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
ib they are only significant to the extent that people look at them but from a logic point of view, they matter little iff 11+ years ago.

QE is what drives stocks up and hope that economy will eventually confirm.

EURO outlook
Paris ib 15:28 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
red what I find interesting is that the relative performance of the DAX (another record high as the Euro falls) and the S and P (down on the day) clearly show that the Germans are eating the U.S.'s lunch with this competitive devaluation. Trend is in play but I would assume we will see resistance from the Yanks at some point. As for technicals? I think they count even if it's 11 years down the track. :-)

EURO outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:24 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
red, I show 1.0910-30 as resistance now with 1.0985ish blocking 1.10. Within that I show 1.0950 as a pivotal level.

As my video shows, on the downside, pure guesswork and I argue that 11+ years levels are not significant. 1.0850 is pivotal as are most "50" levels as 1.08 looms below. Feel free to agree or disagree.

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 15:20 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
11,600 coming up on the DAX. And it's all Euro related.

EURO outlook
london red 15:20 GMT 03/06/2015
one step at a time ib. lets do 10760 first then 10646. abv 10917 relieves pressure at bit but abv 11025/30 needed to play mkt into another consolidation phase.

Video: EURUSD Heading for 1.08 and 1.05
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:16 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile

EURUSD is in uncharted waters and when that happens picking out key technical levels and targets is guesswork. In addition, those using support levels dating back 11+ years are grasping at straws as they have no relevance to today's price action other than being points on a chart. More important is what I call my magic levels and here I make a case for 1.08 and 1.05 as the next targets.

Video: EURUSD Heading for 1.08 and 1.05


EURO outlook
Paris ib 15:12 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
So we get the 1 to 1 target. Then what?

USDYEN
london red 15:11 GMT 03/06/2015
sorry that should be 12165

USDYEN
london red 15:02 GMT 03/06/2015
12185 now tgt for yen. maybe gets there by early monday asia then they take some profit.

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 15:01 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
DAX is just loving this.

Labor Data . Noise ?
PAR 14:51 GMT 03/06/2015
Did The BLS Once Again Forget To Count The Tens Of Thousands Of Energy Job Losses?



Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/06/2015 09:23 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/did-bls-once-again-forget-count-tens-thousands-energy-job-losses

Trading U.S. Jobs Data
dc CB 14:51 GMT 03/06/2015
In the February NFP report, the establishment survey reported that just 1.1K jobs were lost in the "Oil and Gas Extraction" industry: this is lower than the downward revised number of 1.8K in January, and adds up to only 2900 jobs lost in 2015.

Challenger said just yesterday:
Once again, the energy sector saw the heaviest job cutting in February, with these firms announcing 16,339 job cuts, due primarily to oil prices.
Falling oil prices have been responsible for 39,621 job cuts, to date.

Did The BLS Once Again Forget To Count The Tens Of Thousands Of Energy Job Losses?


BREAKING NEWS
Livingston nh 14:49 GMT 03/06/2015
John - Williams (SF fed) most recent to suggest June discussion of a hike - introduced leads and lags into the conversation BUT he said the market would not see the first "hike" as a tightening but just reducing the stimulus - that is a semantic HOPE// Patience goes out this month for flexibility

2 yr heading for 52 wk hi (0.75%) and 10 yr selling off into Fed meeting - market can't discount everything // by April meeting two more CPI -- by June Q1 GDP

This is still a very cautious group BUT a June hike is 90% -- if the 10 yr yield runs up over the next couple of months he Fed could flip the switch on "reinvestment" in April just to test mkt reaction (or sell some 10s but ..........)


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