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27/04/15 23:50 A JP Retail Sales yy con: -7.50% pre: -1.70%
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GVI Forex john 19:48 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    23:50 JP Retail Sales consumer demand
    8:30 GB GDP widest measure of economy
    14:00 US CB Cons Confidence Latest view on economy
    17:00 UST TRY 5-yr
    0:00 JP Holiday
    11:00 DE fl HICP yy ECB targets inflation
    12:00 JP Ind Outp production
    12:30 US GDP q/q widest measure of economy
    14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Sales
    14:30 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
    17:00 USFRB Fed Rates Fed Policy Decision
    17:00 UST TRY 7-yr
    20:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rate RBNZ Decision
    4:30 JP Bank of Japan Bank of Japan
    7:55 DE Jobless Employment
    8:00 CH KOF Ind
    9:00 EZ flash HICP y ECB targets inflation
    9:00 EZ fl core HICP y m ECB targets inflation
    12:30 CA GDP mm Broadest Economic measure
    12:30 US PCE defl y Fed inflation target
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobs data
    12:30 US Per Income earnings
    13:45 US Chicago PMI Regional PMI
    23:30 JP Unemploy jobs data
    23:30 JP core CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    23:30 JP CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    CH Holiday
    CN Holiday
    EZ Holiday
    1:00 CN NBS PMI Latest view on economy
    1:35 JP final Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    8:28 GB Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    13:45 US final U of Mich Sentiment Survey
    14:00 US Construction Spend construction
    14:00 US ISM MFG PMI Latest view on economy

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CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

RISK ON: Hope That Talks On Greece Might Improve After Greek FinMin Change Gives Stocks Boost
GVI Forex Blog 17:38 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: JP- Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 5-yr

RISK ON: Hope That Talks On Greece Might Improve After Greek FinMin Change Gives Stocks Boost

gc sf 17:32 GMT 04/27/2015
all the breakout strategies are long this @1.5208-10 - they target tp @ 1.5295

+ some of the other calls yesterday were all buying GBP with tp 1.53 +

so the r/r in being long GBP is decreasing pretty quick.

ACC mentioned it before - but we have RBA Guy speaking in 5 hours time ... if you have AUD position would have to be wary of that.

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GVI Forex john 17:29 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
50-day moving average (1.0907) broken in EURUSD, but baxk below now that the stops above 1.0900 were taken out.

New S and P Record
dc CB 17:13 GMT 04/27/2015
Across the board...cur, bonds, gold, stocks, the Algos are setting widened ranges where stops can accumulate...this will go on up to just a few milliseconds prior the 2PM FMOC "Embargoed Release" on Wed.

Stops on either side will be run in the first second after the the "official" release.

But hey they Busted that XXX, so it's all good right?

The Geopolitical Soup
Paris ib 17:09 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
I have no idea about timing... but it looks like we are not far off another flare up. Take your pick: Syria, Yemen... the Ukraine.

No Hope For Peace

New S and P Record
Paris ib 16:47 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
U.S. Treasuries sliding.

New S and P Record
Paris ib 16:44 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
The S and P didn't like that positive open. Looking to see where we go on the downside. Bonds also seeing a little pressure.

AUD the anti USD
Paris ib 16:42 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Possible but we have to get through FOMC. A decisive break would set the tone. And then there is a lot of upside. :-)

AUD the anti USD
kl shawn 16:38 GMT 04/27/2015
ib, euro above 1.10 and. gbp above. 1.54 by friday?

AUD the anti USD
Paris ib 16:26 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
USD weakness accelerating. We need to get through FOMC before we can say the top is in in the USD. But it's starting to look that way.

kl shawn 16:20 GMT 04/27/2015
cable run to 1.54-1.55 before election, then return to 1.50 after

New S and P Record
Paris ib 16:19 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
On the back of the news that the Greek Finance Minister is going to be gently shoved to one side. New absolute high. Now waiting for the FOMC. Euro on its way to 1.1000. The break above that will need to be decisive for this trend to find legs.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 16:07 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
The Shanghai Composite surged 3% on Monday on reports the PBoC was talking about another round of QE stimulus and European indices saw very strong gains on the Chinese news and some positive developments on the Greek front. Trading has been a bit choppy in the US, with participants eyeing Wednesday's FOMC decision and tons of big earnings report, not the least Apple today after the close US Mid-Session Update: PBoC May Be Cooking Up QE; Greece Shuffles Negotiating Team

AUD the anti USD
Sydney ACC 15:57 GMT 04/27/2015
RBA Governor Stevens speaks to the AFR Banking & Wealth Summit at 8:40am AEST.

It's possible he could discuss the reduced impact from a further cut in the cash rate at the current level. If so would be supportive of AUD.

Mtl JP 15:56 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
looksee here: ..."a new team was also set up to support EU and IMF officials gathering information in the Greek capital"...

the Greek is as finished as a moth caught in spider's web

Livingston nh 15:40 GMT 04/27/2015
This move will likely cause a new election in Greece - Syriza fractures come front and center - capital flight increases // the political arm of the Troika called this shot - "kick the can" again

GVI Forex john 15:35 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile

AUD the anti USD
london red 15:23 GMT 04/27/2015
cable up on fix related buying and new poll showing tories with 6 pt lead. earlier poll today showed labour leading by 3. bottom line is it will be close and the longer it takes to form a government the more sterling will suffer.
some option related selling at days high and while close abv 100 day will be bullish think further gains on ice until tomorrows gdp. as long as bad news held off by 15060, then can still finish day up (tomorrow).

AUD the anti USD
Paris ib 15:02 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
AUD rally - as usual - a harbinger of USD weakness. :-)

Penny Stock Chronicles
dc CB 14:58 GMT 04/27/2015

not a penny stock by any means...but heavy bets on it coming in with Boffo Earnings ---after the close today.
Hvywt member of DJIA,S&P and, Naz (100 and Comp).

Mtl JP 14:58 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
The euro is – and has to be – irrevocable in all its member states, not just because the Treaties say so, but because without this there cannot be a truly single money” - Draghi

perish the thought of the Greek screwing with the european princes' process of building a modern-day castle.

resistance is futile. assimilation is certain.

london red 14:43 GMT 04/27/2015
what greece needs to do for greece is default. ppl will always lend them money history shows, despite their various defaults. as it stands they are negotiating for their kids to pay off this generations debts. so greece will be uncompetitive for a generation. so its best for them they default. but they would then probably want to keep the euro. and thats probably where the eu would draw the line. it could be the party's end game to default but they of course would need to go thru the motions, which is what we are seeing, as we are no closer to another deal (dilution) than a few months back.

dc CB 14:38 GMT 04/27/2015
and this is the Pix the NYTimes runs today....oooooooo
Just Who does he think he is. Where's his hair shirt

Greece Says It Is Changing Team That Negotiates With Creditors

Paris ib 14:30 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
That pie chart is a classic CB. But it's always like that. The Mexican crisis, the Asian crisis.... the debts are illegitimate and unsound and when they go bust (as they must) these deals are intended to cripple the countries involved. And they do. That said the Greek Finance Minister was not achieving anything concrete for the Greek people. I don't know if the rest of them have it in them to do anything, we will see.

An Economic Hitman

dc CB 14:20 GMT 04/27/2015

not a suprise at all. He's just another rich dude who. Attack the man, not his postion.

From the Economist:
Mr Varoufakis has become a global celebrity, to the annoyance of many in Syriza, the leftist party in power. To his critics, Mr Varoufakis’s lifestyle—riding a powerful motorbike, spending evenings in chic bars and weekends at a smart island villa belonging to his wife—is embarrassingly close to that of the rich Greeks he castigates for avoiding taxes by stashing cash abroad.

Paris ib 14:17 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries

See Russia

Paris ib 14:14 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
JP - don't know. The evidence suggests that geopolitics and Russia - and all of that (so you have Syria, Yemen, the Ukraine....) is just bubbling along under the surface but likely to erupt at any time. I note that the Russians (according to latest data) had sold nearly all their U.S. Treasuries - I guess they've sold even more since then. Preparations are at hand. But for what? I have no idea but I don't like it.

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
ib 13:46 some sort of confrontation
suspicious mind says foreign confrontation is often eyeball diversion tactic from domestic kakka

Paris ib 14:01 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
That's not the point. The debt needs to be serviced. Without a deal that would be difficult. Varafoukis was in the way of progress, so this is good news at least in terms of addressing the problem.

PAR 13:59 GMT 04/27/2015
Its not that because Varoufakis disappears that the Greek debt disappears . Greece debt today higher than Friday .
Even higher than this morning .

PAR 13:54 GMT 04/27/2015
Markit Flash U.S. Services #PMI falls from 59.2 in Mar to 57.8. Cost inflation at 6-month high

GVI Forex john 13:53 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
ISM flash Services PMI. Another data miss.
MORE: U.S. Data Charts

Paris ib 13:50 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
"Amazingly, Mr Varoufakis is often away on the international conference circuit. In his absence Yannis Dragasakis, the deputy prime minister, who is close to Mr Tsipras but not to Mr Varoufakis, takes over."

Bloomberg has confirmed the reshuffle.

"Greece reshuffled its bailout-negotiating team, reining in Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, after three months of talks with creditors failed to unlock aid and a meeting with his euro-area counterparts ended in acrimony. The coordination of day-to-day efforts to strike a deal with creditors was handed to Deputy Foreign Minister Euclid Tsakalotos, a Greek government official said in an e-mail to reporters Monday."

The Economist

london red 13:49 GMT 04/27/2015
edit. abv mon high

london red 13:48 GMT 04/27/2015
cable. sell 60-75 stop abv friday high. for 15090/95. then long 15060/65 stop a little under 200hma for return to 100 day ma.

Paris ib 13:46 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Very good news for cutting a deal then.

What's this business Merkel wants more sanctions on Russia? For what?

Feels like we are building to some sort of confrontation.

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
U.S. Markit flash Services PMI April 2015
U.S. Data Charts

57.8 vs. 58.6 exp. vs. 59.2 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
PAR- thanks for the Greece info! Very Helpful!

london red 13:44 GMT 04/27/2015
weekend press not so kind to Varoufakis, sources say its got to the point that he cannot be taken seriously by eu parties.

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile

Radical staff exchange in Athens: Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (41) deposed his finance Yanis Varoufakis (54) further! Varoufakis is not responsible for negotiations with the so-called Euro-group now!

From Wednesday to Deputy Foreign Minister Efkledes Tsakalotos (54) for Greece in Brussels to negotiate with the Euro group. This was announced by the government in Athens. Tsakalotos'm going to work "under Varoufakis," it said tersely. The goal is to improve the climate conversation.

PAR 13:26 GMT 04/27/2015
Griechischer Finanzminister nicht mehr für Verhandlungen mit Euro-Gruppe zuständig


Varoufakis entmachtet!

GVI Forex john 13:26 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
following word Greece might be revising its reform program

DAX +199
DJ futures +83
S&P futures +7

US 10-yr 1.921% +1.1bp
DE 10-yr 16.5% +0.8bp

NY JM 13:22 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
PAR, good info in that post.

PAR 13:13 GMT 04/27/2015
European markets have caught fire in the last 30minutes, as headlines intensify Yanis Varoufakis has been sidelined by Tsipras, and Germany’s Bild reporting the Greeks have revised their reform list. The DAX is up 90bp, with only the Fins in the red (DB #s), while discretionary names are leaping by over 2% in heavy volume. Over in Asia, China stocks jumped to fresh seven-year highs on expectations that Beijing will accelerate mergers among state-owned enterprises, while a Pop in Ore prices benefited the Miners, helping Aussie close at 7Y highs. On the flip side, Fitch Downgrades Japan (Nikkei off small), while India was hit for 1%, and now red on the year.

Read more:

GVI Forex Blog 12:49 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 5-yr Auction

GVI Forex Calendar for April 28, 2015

GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile

April 27, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, April 28, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 5-yr Auction
  • Far East: JP- Retail Sales
  • Europe: GB- GDP
  • North America: US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 5-yr Auction, Weekly Energy

GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Iran Radio reports ISIS leader Dead

NY JM 12:40 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
My view on cable has been that there was a flow that drove it higher. I have not seen any talk of this in print but price action suggested it was more than spec buying.

For me it would have to trade and hold above 1.5164 and then take out 1.52 to suggest more upside.

If I am right in my suspicion of a flow, then see what happens if whatever order drove it higher is no longer in the market.

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