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02/09/15 8:28 A GB Construct PMI con: 57.5 pre: 57.1
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jkt abel 02:59 GMT 09/02/2015
RF@, are things under control though?

HK RF@ 02:55 GMT 09/02/2015

Shanghai Composite Index, may end the day in the green, possibly not to demoralize the folks on the coming holiday(Mkts in China, will be closed beginning tomorrow to the end of the week).

If it will end significantly lower, it means...matters are totally out of control :[

Post Your Trade
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:53 GMT 09/02/2015  - My Profile
The reason for encouraging this thread is to encourage more posting of trade ideas. It is also easy to review them as they are one place.

With that said you know we are flexible so this is not a requirement but we do think it would encourage more posting if trades.

Post Your Trade
jkt abel 01:49 GMT 09/02/2015
Jay, i dont think it is convenient to just limit a thread for posting a trade idea, just let it flow like the forum has been. Appreciate the effort but sometimes too much effort will ruin it.

Post Your Trade
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:32 GMT 09/02/2015  - My Profile
Please use this thread to post your trades.

Wednesday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex 01:30 GMT 09/02/2015  - My Profile
See how it closes

* China's CSI300 index to open down 4.2 pct at 3,220.85 points

Wednesday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:51 GMT 09/02/2015  - My Profile
S&P up so just follow equities. Outside day already in USDJPY. Would need a close above 120.24 for an outside day key reversal day. Long way to go before the close.

Wednesday's Trading Thread
SF WM 00:39 GMT 09/02/2015
Any news? USD up. Reversal in jpy.

Fed Rate Liftoff and the Forex Market Dilemma
GVI Forex Blog 00:18 GMT 09/02/2015  - My Profile

While a Fed interest rate liftoff seems a matter of when, not if this year judging by recent Fedspeak, it poses a dilemma for the forex market

Fed Rate Liftoff and the Forex Market Dilemma

Wednesday's Trading Thread
dc CB 00:13 GMT 09/02/2015
"Simply put - it is very clear now that stocks are moving in lockstep with JPY carry"

120 ---- it's a miracle

Wednesday's Trading Thread
dc CB 23:43 GMT 09/01/2015
last week's recovery from oversold was triggered by Dudley.

The chart suggests a retest of the DoRight, a retest of 1831 and a retest of Bullard's Bottom.

the bounce went just above the 50% ret. 2134-1831. Looking like a Wave 4.

The only thing that would save it is another QE - from Draggi ??

Friday will be thin thin thin after the NFP release, the machines will probably be left on to trade the afternoon session.

Emini Daily

Wednesday's Trading Thread
Livingston nh 23:25 GMT 09/01/2015
John - the capitulation trade on this SPX leg was last week when A/D, volume neg, VIX and New Lows (especially new lows) all spiked -- today was the "uh oh" trade following Friday's stall // these folks were figuring we would get the V bottom as STOX started to rise -- BAD market internals today were pretty consistent all day BUT only 100 new lows

On or before Friday we could get a new Price low but a decent rally on Good employment figures would put to bed Fed fears (maybe a proxy ADP rally tomorrow)

My Good ANALOGY risk is that STOX are trading like OCT 1987 not flash crash or greek issues or '97

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dc CB 22:56 GMT 09/01/2015
repost of JPM's Quant warning from last week. --- (on ZH)

the head JPM quant warns that a large pool of assets controlled by price-insensitive managers including derivatives hedgers, Trend Following strategies (CTAs), Risk Parity portfolios and Volatility Managed strategies, which is programmatically trading equities regardless of underlying fundamentals, is about to start selling equities, "and will negatively affect market in coming days and weeks." For good measure, he casually tosses the word "crash" in the note as well.

JPM Head Quant Warns Second Market Crash May Be Imminent

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dc CB 22:53 GMT 09/01/2015
ZH thoughts:

So 3 big stories today - Equities collapsed... VIX ETFs turmoiled... and Crude Oil crashed...

But before we start - something odd is going on... Simply put - it is very clear now that stocks are moving in lockstep with JPY carry (China forced unwinds) and long-dated TSYs (China selling) have entirely decoupled from the rest of US assets...

We suspect that as Monday's collapse occurred last week it forced "Risk Parity" shops into selling as China's intervention throws ther asimple arbs (equities down, yields down) into a fit - unleashing all sorts of negative feedback loops which are still underway.

Which summarized simply means - any time you introduce an exogenous signal to a correlation pair, it blows it up and forces derisking. The more leverage on both legs, the more unwinds needed... and the more negative the feedback loop. And this 'correlation pair' game has been going on for 5 years unabated.

Crude Carnage & Asian Contagion Crushes Hype-Fueled Dreams Of US Stocks

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Israel Dil 22:22 GMT 09/01/2015
Mr. Blend.... :-)

with that answer I say that you are much better from Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton, therefore both parties to agree to let you run for presidency in their behalf.

it's clear that the deep emotional attachment to H.M. J. Meisler avoids the presidency and keeps you here with us.

Shanghai Stockmarket
Sydney ACC 22:21 GMT 09/01/2015
The Shanghai stock market will be closed Thursday and Friday as China commemorates the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.

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GVI Forex john bland 22:13 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
The preferred side to trade from depends on the strength or weakness of the S&P futures (e-mini). S&P and EURUSD are negatively correlated.

Wednesday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 21:39 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
U.S. stocks suffer 3rd-worst drop of year is "closed soft" ?
lol, love your prose john

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Mtl JP 21:36 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
john what is the preferred side from to trade it now ?

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GVI Forex john bland 21:21 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD trading closer to its 200-day average (1.1295).

Global-View Trading Technologies
GVI Forex Blog 21:01 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

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Wednesday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 20:57 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
Three observations:

1) Equities closed soft. I'm not sure, but don't corrections often end with a climax sell-off? That usually happens when the final long throws in the towel. This market seems strangely complacent to me at this juncture.

2) I watched and traded EURUSD all day Tuesday. While the EURUSD rallied, it seemed to me like a reluctant rally, which suggests there were not a lot of stops in the market meaning that there may not have been a lot of stops resting in the market.

3) I heard that Wednesday is the last trading day for the Shanghai this week due to holidays on Thursday and Friday. So Wednesday is the final trading day of the week.

E/TRY and e/gbp
Israel Dil 20:54 GMT 09/01/2015

I disagree with you, TRY is a mega SHORT
sooner than later the "thing" saying that MOHAMMED went on his horse as the first man on the moon will lose his TEMPORARY position then TRY will return to be a currency of a nation and not a regime... until that point just trade it ;-)

fair value of EUR/TRY is seriously lower than 2


GVI Forex john bland 20:44 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
CO $44.51 -0.41 (44.92 was the close)

GVI Forex john bland 20:36 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
Reportedly API crude +7.6 mln vs. 0.0mln exp

GVI Data Calendar for 2 September 2015
GVI Forex john bland 19:57 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile

September 1, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 2, 2015. Trading News Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- GDP, Trade, Retail Sales, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI, us- ADP Jobs, Productivity, Factory Orders, Weekly Crude, Beige Book
  • Far East: AU-GDP, Trade, Retail Sales
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI
  • North America: us- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, Productivity, Factory Orders, Weekly Crude, Beige Book

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 19:41 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

PAR 19:41 GMT 09/01/2015
15:38 EDT - RBC is coming to the defense of August payrolls, dismissing all the talk about how the month's report has a consistent history of falling short of expectations. Firm says the reality of today's labor market is one of ongoing improvement, with no signs suggesting an imminent slowdown in payrolls growth. "Basing a call for a weak August print solely on the performance of this month over recent history is a stretch," firm says, forecasting an above-consensus 230k-240k gain in jobs last month. It notes that the misses posted in August 2012 and 2013 were only slightly off the average from the prior three months. Meanwhile, the August 2014 miss was large, but due to a well-advertised grocery-store strike. (; @cynthialin_dj)

This is NOT a Dress Rehearsal
Paris ib 19:09 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
Find out where the bunkers are and storm the bunkers.

This is NOT a Dress Rehearsal
Paris ib 19:07 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
2008 was the dress rehearsal. This is the the real deal.

Paris ib 19:04 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
EUR/AUD up through 1.6000. Shortish term target is 1.6500.

Bond Market Avalanche
Paris ib 19:00 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
While stocks see ongoing weakness there has NOT been a commensurate increase in bond buying. 2 year Treasury yields are still above 0.70 percent and 3 year yields are above 1 percent. This is not good news. The U.S. rolls most of its debt in the 1 to 2 year area. And it has a lot of debt to roll. 4 trillion rolls every year. Higher yields at the short end go right to the bottom line. One more reason for Yellen NOT to hike in September. Though I note the ongoing USD bullish sentiment on this forum and in the press. The logic is flawed. The USD remains at risk.

E/TRY and e/gbp
hillegom purk 18:39 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
Ah mr. DIL.

I waited for many moons after shorting e/try the first time remember at 3,28.
It went back all the way to 2,64....
I calculated and almost forgot the overshoot. But i got very nice entries and multiple, and profit is already according to the Purk standard.
Basicly, e/try is a long.... but turned into a corrective thingy. Under 2,64 it will turn into a real shorty.

But than again, i am not intelligent, i just trade.

E/TRY and e/gbp
hillegom purk 18:35 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
Knez zert. In my booklet it is e/try first, than e/u. e/gbp is an extra. I am not intelligent so i can not explain better. I just trade according those rules.

Ozmond long 70+
hillegom purk 18:31 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
I add a small long in multiple portions to the collection. I was patient with the entries so they get better and better.
Also a trade for years, and lotsa pips to be made.

hillegom purk 18:28 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
Right. I am going to long this fruit from the above mentioned prices. Of course it will have overshoot, and this will be a trade for years....

On my platform there is a spike down till 60,50 so i trust it will go there as well.

london red 18:04 GMT 09/01/2015
stox looks like they got bored and will run the bitch down into the close. euro can pop to 200hma but fade 11364-67 fibs as will need to back fill todays range tomorrow and 200hma almost certain to trade tomorrow, 200dma also quite likely to trade even if 11364-67 hit today.

Risk-Off Trade Late In U.S. Session After Far East Equity Sell-Off
GVI Forex Blog 18:03 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile

2  SEPTEMBER 2015, 00:00 GMT >> FOREX NEWS  >> PMIs mixed >> GB-Mfg big miss (see forum for data >> AU-RBA policy steady as expected >>US-PMIs mixed  FOREX >> USD mixed,  EUR CROSSES: higher, COMMODITY CURRENCIES weaker >> EQUITIES: FAR EAST- lower, EUROPE- lower, U

Risk-Off Trade Late In U.S. Session After Far East Equity Sell-Off

london red 18:01 GMT 09/01/2015
11876 outside chance i suppose. but multiple yards of euro gets dumped at that price.

nw kw 17:54 GMT 09/01/2015
1.18 big fib maker tagged one more test 118 than can drop to 1.10 but 1.05 rare fib move will hold, using past fib commodity trading seen this move repeat in charts

Mtl JP 17:48 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
euro at 200dma
trade it at own risk profile

Israel Dil 17:48 GMT 09/01/2015
nw kw

so what's your trade?!
long horse short water or vice versa?

nw kw 17:46 GMT 09/01/2015
horse reported laving qe pub/ 8 months lag for qe it kicks in xmas , eur reported but this from qe pub

Israel Dil 17:31 GMT 09/01/2015
Entry: Target: below parity Stop: 1.1444

mtl JP

you can bring the horse to the water but you cannot make the horse to drink the water

Israel Dil 17:29 GMT 09/01/2015
Entry: Target: below parity Stop: 1.1444

mtl JP

you can the horse to the water but you cannot make the horse to drink the water

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Mixed. ISM Weak
Livingston nh 17:27 GMT 09/01/2015
JP - for all government employees the key phrase at the end of each day is not "job well done" but rather "close enough for government work" -/// re models: this from FAUST @ Jackson Hole "We label this problematic variation in macro variables disparate confounding dynamics (DCD), where confounding refers to complicating any conventional interpretation of normal cyclical dynamics and the assessment of appropriate monetary policy." A new improved model !!!

Economics is NOT physics despite the use of math --

london red 17:26 GMT 09/01/2015
all depends on stox. looks like they are waiting for each other to start buying that 50%.

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT 09/01/2015  - My Profile
euro still under its 200dma at 1.1301
still sell on rally bias

E/TRY and e/gbp
Belgrade Knez 17:18 GMT 09/01/2015

hillegom purk

excuse my ignorance, but eur/try and eur/usd going same direction at the same time .... how in that case can eur/try be your indicator for eur/usd movement please?

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