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5/22/15 20:00
Target   3-Mo
2.25 Aust 2.96
0.10 Japan 0.12
0.50 U.K. 0.56
0.05 E-Z 0.06
-0.75 Switz 0.01
0.75 Cda 1.17
0.25 U.S. 0.23
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 2.01 -1
Japan 0.00 0
U.K. 0.54 -1
E-Z -0.21 1
Switz -0.86 -1
Cda 0.68 0
U.S. 0.62 4
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 2.91 -4
Japan 0.42 1
U.K. 1.92 -5
E-Z 0.61 -2
Switz 0.01 -2
Cda 1.78 1
U.S. 2.21 3

Market Tracker



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24/05/15 23:50 A JP Trade JPYb con: -351 pre: 227
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  Forum Directory    Archive
Charts : Fundamentals for Trading
GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT 05/24/2015  - My Profile
Global-View Economic Chart Directory

Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: Smoothed moving averages turning soft. US and CAD turning down. AUD and China tend follow one another with Australia dependent on demand for exports from China.

Charts : Fundamentals for Trading
GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT 05/24/2015  - My Profile
Global-View Economic Chart Directory

Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART:
Latest Manufacturing PMI. Relative economic strengths are converging at a slow expansion level. The U.S. Markit PMI has slowed substantially, while the Eurozone has converged with the U.S. The chart generally supports my view of trading range markets.

Greece will not make June IMF repayment: interior minister
HK RF@ 12:28 GMT 05/24/2015

Good timing for the freeloaders on a long weekend, enough time extort some more money.

HK RF@ 11:31 GMT 05/24/2015

Porto Cubriclas

Agree! That is the reason, I mention that, so waiting for the action.

Greece will not make June IMF repayment: interior minister
GVI Forex 10:54 GMT 05/24/2015  - My Profile
Is this just posturing or some minister shooting from the hip?

Greece will not make June IMF repayment: interior minister

Ask Your Advocate: What is the Difference Between Forex Trading Volumes and Liquidity?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:35 GMT 05/24/2015  - My Profile
For those who missed my article on market liquidity

Ask Your Advocate: What is the difference between trading volumes and market liquidity?

Your Advocate Says: There is a big difference between trading volumes and liquidity. The greater the liquidity, the easier it is for the market to absorb large trading volumes. The opposite is true when liquidity is thin. I have seen large volumes go through the forex market and the price of a currency barely move while other times I have seen relatively small orders have an exaggerated impact on the price of a currency.

Ask Your Advocate: What is the Difference Between Forex Trading Volumes and Liquidity?

Forex Prices Moving Into Range Markets: Week Ahead
Mtl JP 00:45 GMT 05/24/2015  - My Profile
Trouble with Yellen making some claims about economic projections is that they are irrelevant.

What is more relevant is what is draining the blood from money managers' and investors' faces when they think about their portfolio: market liquidity, "one of the most under-appreciated risk factors facing most investors today."

Liquidity is, more or less, the ability for investors to move in and out of positions without having to take big losses.

..."Discussions, as such, were dominated by the broader issues of liquidity, positioning, market dynamics, and fundamentals. And in fact fundamentals at present seem to be taking a back seat for most. Market liquidity has unambiguously shifted up investors’ hierarchy of issues. While it seems that large investors have already been managing a larger share of their portfolios with an eye on market liquidity than was the case pre-crisis, the range of clients factoring liquidity into their investment decisions has broadened further.”

That’s not how it is supposed to be, given that central banks have been injecting liquidity into markets for years.

Equally if, as clients have told Yetsenga, they are already positioning for a lack of liquidity, this can further exacerbate that very lack of liquidity. That is, as traders and investors shrink position sizes, become move tentative, and less certain of their conviction in their positions, they are likely to hold them for shorter periods and exit more quickly.

They may even step aside completely for a time.

This puts further pressure on liquidity, indeed it can plunge it into a downward spiral. ".../..

Forex Prices Moving Into Range Markets: Week Ahead
Dillon AL 20:13 GMT 05/23/2015  - My Profile
FED chair effectively confirms with her words that she is useless and is a reactionary to events. Something we have always known just as they cannot see bubbles

Forex Prices Moving Into Range Markets: Week Ahead
dc CB 16:02 GMT 05/23/2015
“I am describing the outlook that I see as most likely, but based on many years of making economic projections, I can assure you that any specific projection that I write down will turn out to be wrong, perhaps markedly so,”

Janet Yellen. Friday, May 22, 2015

Fed chair affirms plans for rate hike this year

Forex Prices Moving Into Range Markets: Week Ahead
Mtl JP 14:01 GMT 05/23/2015  - My Profile
When will the theme of relative QE – I.e printing - policy between the ECB and the FED kick into players' calculations if it is not doing so already with eurdlr frolicking around 1.10 instead of challenging 1.15 ?

Porto Cubriclas 13:03 GMT 05/23/2015  - My Profile
HK RF@ 07:54 GMT

All expert opinions now about NZD negative.

Hi RF!
Who are "all"?
90% of experts fail...

Forex Prices Moving Into Range Markets: Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 11:30 GMT 05/23/2015  - My Profile

John M. Bland

New Dollar Scenario Unfolding The new dollar trading scenario we have been developing over the past few weeks continues to unfold. The bull dollar trend continues run out of steam as markets reassess the potential strength of the U.S. economy. On the other hand, the outlook for the European economy has improved.

Forex Prices Moving Into Range Markets: Week Ahead

HK RF@ 07:54 GMT 05/23/2015

All expert opinions now about NZD negative.

For an AAA economy eh.

Will think a buy at about 0.7150

dc CB 00:35 GMT 05/23/2015
zerohedge @zerohedge ·
Surely economists realize that thanks to "double seasonal adjustments" they just became the laughing stock of the whole world

nw kw 23:39 GMT 05/22/2015
nzd/usd and gbp/nzd looks like gbp/usd is soft / see if home builders support a good usd econ. next week

Mtl JP 22:45 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Statement by the Bank of England
22 May 2015
Today, information related to planned confidential Bank work on the potential implications of a renegotiation and national referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union made its way into the public domain, due to an internal email sent inadvertently to an external party.

It should not come as a surprise that the Bank is undertaking such work about a stated government policy. There are a range of economic and financial issues that arise in the context of the renegotiation and national referendum. It is one of the Bank’s responsibilities to assess those that relate to its objectives.

It is not sensible to talk about this work publicly, in advance. But as with work done prior to the Scottish referendum, we will disclose the details of such work at the appropriate time.

While it is unfortunate that this information has entered the public domain in this way, the Bank will maintain this approach.

GVI Forex 20:19 GMT 05/22/2015
Wire Report
BOE Accidentally Emails Brexit Plan To UK Newspaper -- Report

Commitment of Traders Report
dc CB 20:15 GMT 05/22/2015
Radical positioning for a big move?



GVI Forex john 19:59 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:12 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

gc sf 18:35 GMT 05/22/2015
slept through most of the move

but can add a couple of levels for reference

1.1040 is going to be a resistance point - as it would be the B/E on what you could have dealt on this morning... options wise

the next one obv where we are at 1.1000

probably the more interesting one is this 1.0940/1.0960 - which is the b/e on the purchase of the put + call ... if we punch through there then 1.0765-1.0800 would be right in play.

you guys have been great this week with tonnes of top notch views + thoughts - looking forward to seeing what comes up next week.

Thanks also to GVI John for all his hard work -- nice weekend everyone.

dc CB 18:12 GMT 05/22/2015
And since economists pride themselves in giving complex names to what even 5 years olds now grasp is open data manipulation, the technical term the BEA will use to goalseek historical data is now also clear: "residual seasonality"

"Although the agency adjusts its figures for seasonal variations, growth in any given first quarter still tends to be weaker than in the remaining three, economists have found, a sign there may be some bias in the data. It’s a phenomenon economists call “residual seasonality.”

• BEA will review all series entering the GDP calculations to identify, and where feasible, mitigate any residual seasonality within its existing seasonal adjustment methodologies.

• Time frame to implement: Review will take place with the release of second-quarter GDP on July 30. Period covered: 2012, 2013, 2014, and forward.


PS: to me this looks perrrrrfffect to show that Yes Virginia, the Economy DID recover Spectacularly during the second Obama term. Anyone who doubts it will be proven Wrong by the New Numbers.

US Department Of Commerce Officially Jumps The Shark, Will "Double Seasonally Adjust" GDP Data

Mtl JP 18:06 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
fwiw euro day Pivot Sup 3 at 1.0973

dc CB 18:05 GMT 05/22/2015
In a blog post published Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis listed a series of alterations it will make in seasonally adjusting data used to calculate economic growth. The changes will be implemented with the release of the initial second-quarter GDP estimate on July 30, the BEA said.

“BEA is aware of the potential for residual seasonality in GDP and its components, and the agency is looking for ways to minimize this phenomenon,” the division said in the post. More information will be available in a BEA Survey of Current Business report scheduled for mid-June publication.

The U.S. Is About to Change the Way It Calculates GDP

Mtl JP 17:36 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
all u need to remember is that

- ECB is printing 100billion/month now up from 60billion/m (66% boost) - while the FED is scaremogering to hike rates

to set your bias
unless the dynamic changes on new input

dc CB 17:28 GMT 05/22/2015
@zerohedge the weather count is now3 no no 4


The Fed considers shelving rate hike plans as it realizes it will snow again in 6 months.

Behind Closed Doors
Paris ib 17:16 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
The EU has agreed a €1.8bn (£1.3bn; $2bn) loan to Ukraine - described as a landmark deal for a non-EU member.


Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's leftist government says it hopes to reach a cash-for-reforms deal in days, although European Union and IMF lenders are more pessimistic and say talks are moving too slowly for that.

Payments to the IMF totaling about 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) fall due next month, starting with a 300 million euro payment on June 5.....

All you need to understand is the geopolitics of these loan deals and you could take a proper bet. All we get is tid bits of information... makes it hard to understand what is really going on.

EU loans the Ukraine 1.8billion

dc CB 17:13 GMT 05/22/2015
Yellen speech word count: "the unusually cold and snowy winter".


dc CB 17:11 GMT 05/22/2015
GVI Forex john 16:50 GMT

One thing that could be new is how she will treat the acknowledged miscalculation of 1Q15 GDP data.

You swallowed that line? you think that there should be a seasonal adjustment of the seasonal adjustment to make the GDP come out "right", so it matches the BS "recovery"

GVI Forex john 17:05 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
10-yr 2.225% +3.2bp

GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Yellen 1Q15 GDP weakness transitory
Rate hike likely this year
rate hikes will be gradual

in short nothing new

GVI Forex john 17:00 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
data dependant

GVI Forex john 16:53 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
10-yr 2.218% +2.5bp

GVI Forex john 16:50 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
One thing that could be new is how she will treat the acknowledged miscalculation of 1Q15 GDP data.

GVI Forex john 16:46 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Her prepared text will be released at the top of the hour. Be careful, it could come out a touch early.

GVI Forex john 16:45 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
U.S. Economic Outlook
At the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, Providence, Rhode Island
1:00 p.m. ET

GVI Forex john 16:35 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    23:50 JP Trade JPYb
    0:00 CH Holiday
    0:00 EZ Holiday
    0:00 GB Holiday
    0:00 US Holiday
    12:30 US Dur Goods production
    12:30 US D/G ex-trans production
    13:45 US flash MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy
    14:00 US CB Cons Confidence Latest view on economy
    14:00 US New Home Sales Housing Statistic
    17:00 UST TRY 2-yr
    14:00 CA BOC Rates
    17:00 UST TRY 5-yr
    23:50 JP Retail Sales yy
    23:50 JP BOJ Minutes
    12:30 CA Cur/Acct C$b
    14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Sales
    15:00 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
    17:00 UST TRY 7-yr
    23:30 JP Unemploy jobs data
    23:30 JP core CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    23:30 JP CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    6:00 DE Retail Sales mm consumer demand measure
    6:00 DE Retail Sales yy
    8:30 GB GDP QQ widest measure of economy
    8:30 GB GDP YY widest measure of economy
    12:30 CA GDP mm
    12:30 US GDP q/q widest measure of economy
    13:45 US Chicago PMI Regional PMI
    14:00 US final U of MIch Sentiment Survey

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 16:23 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile

•Queen’s speech to confirm PM Cameron’s intention of holding an EU referendum

•Greek uncertainty to linger pending key events after the coming week

•Weakness in UK and US Q1 GDP to be reassessed


GVI Forex john 16:07 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile

E/$ 1.0970, gold 1200, NZD 0.7280, USD/JPY 122.2......
HK RF@ 16:03 GMT 05/22/2015

If those level will be tested and hold, one may expect a recoil.

HK RF@ 15:50 GMT 05/22/2015

USD will jerk up 0.5%, for whatever reason, before a decline.

Wolf sightings
Livingston nh 15:40 GMT 05/22/2015
"Major insurers in some states are proposing hefty rate boosts for plans sold under the federal health law, setting the stage for an intense debate this summer over the law’s impact.

In New Mexico, market leader Health Care Service Corp. is asking for an average jump of 51.6% in premiums for 2016. The biggest insurer in Tennessee, BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, has requested an average 36.3% increase. In Maryland, market leader CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield wants to raise rates 30.4% across its products. Moda Health, the largest insurer on the Oregon health exchange, seeks an average boost of around 25%.

All of them cite high medical costs incurred by people newly enrolled under the Affordable Care Act."

Seasonally adjust this

Livingston nh 15:24 GMT 05/22/2015
If you check the transcripts so far available but covering the early Bernanke Crisis policies most of the Fed members were expressing concern about the Inflationary impact of the moneyflow -- despite Ben's public TV assurance that this wouldn't be a problem he expressed concern in the meetings - concerns started to diminish and the few who continued to comment were eventually sidelined // so here we are - this big balance sheet and no inflation pressures -- so the Fed thinx "no problem" -the WOLF didn't show up, ergo, there is no WOLF

Mtl JP 15:24 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
thematically speaking:
ECB is dovish
BoJ is dovish
BoE is confused
RBA is confused and dovish leaning
BoC is pretending to be happy w/status quo
FED is hawkish but manifestly scared if not outright cowardly.
and it is probably scared that players will start to see it cowardly and start fighting.

I would like to see a discussion of FED's "policy normalization".

From my old textbooks a policy is "normalized" when interest rate about equals GDP growth rate.

Brisbane Flip 15:12 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
John this has been the most timid FOMC on record and this unprecedented dipless orderly rally has shown that way to much "respect" has been shown to the market in fear of any sense of balance.
Seriously the market is on all time highs. If she says anything that makes the equity market wobble at this point (after their inaction has encouraged its rally of 15-25% every 12 months without a meangful correction since the GFC 7 years ago) it is hardly a problem.

The central bankers have gone so far in protecting the speculative financial market community they have painted themselves into a corner. This use the word transparency but they say nothing and give no guidance whatsoever. How can a central bank with the mountain of modelling and analytical firepower of the Fed sit back and suggest they make monetary policy decisions on the back of rear window statistical guesses (and not very good ones by the admission of the BEA the past few days). The Fed said that ZIRP and QEvwas to repair the banking system and transmission system of the financial economy. Surely seven years later and the biggest Stockmarket rally on record suggests this is redundant.
By failing to normalise SEVEN YEARS AFTER THE GFC the FOMC have effectively forced retiring baby boomers to remain fully invested in the riskiest overpriced markets (in search of yield that has been eradicated by the Fed ZIRP and QE obsessions) when conservativity is the norm at this maturation stage.

Livingston nh 15:04 GMT 05/22/2015
The Fed doesn't believe in inflation anymore - part of the April discussion was about "new normal" levels of interest rates and inflation // there has been a spate of silly debate among various econ types (I banged my drum about this the other day) in the news about esoteric econ concepts which is always a bad sign because it marks confusion

The classic problem for Yellen and her group is the NAIRU myth - tying labor and inflation is like most econ concepts, it's right "SOMETIMES"

You can never KNOW the market reaction but this FED wants certainty -- doing nothing for too long can get you burned alive

Mtl JP 14:59 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
For those who must play, following the tape and sidelining FED's bs is probably the better way to fly

london red 14:37 GMT 05/22/2015
its possible she looked at the cpi before preparing her remarks but i doubt it. these remarks will have been prepared much earlier than today although if she wanted to cause a panic i guess she could mention something but theres less than 1% chance of that going on past performance.

Next Page


Ask Your Advocate: What is the Difference Between Forex Trading Volumes and Liquidity?

What Level Would be Fatal for the EURUSD?

Will EURUSD Test 1.15? Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

Strong USD Scenario Fading Into The Sunset: Week Ahead

Forex 101: It's the Reaction to News that Matters!


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