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05/07/15 0:00 A GR Referendum con: n/a pre: n/a
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What Happens if a Yes or No Greek Vote
Paris ib 17:58 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
Agree Dil I would vote NO. Let's see how this goes.

Greece: the con
Paris ib 16:33 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
John - they can print and they have access to electronic euros as it now stands. What exactly do you think happens if - as you suggest - they revert to the Drachma. They can not print anything at all. How does that work exactly? I don't think you have thought this through.

The Euro is a concept currency. Now the Greeks have to test the concept. Print Greek Euros. I tell you what there would be less panic withdrawals from banks if the Greeks knew their Central Bank was printing currency. This whole drama is a total con trick.

What Happens if a Yes or No Greek Vote
Israel Dil 15:43 GMT 07/04/2015
Yes = Greece going to work hard the way forced on them.
No = Greece going to work hard their Greek way.

if I am a Greek then my vote would be NO

Yes is banks closed every time the Troika not glad with something as it works NOW and the Greek by voting yes accept the blackmail.

More Mistakes ?
Mtl JP 14:16 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
China brokerages pledge to buy $19.3 billion in shares to steady plunging market - link

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What Happens if a Yes or No Greek Vote
Greece nk 12:02 GMT 07/04/2015
I rememper
b4 years that someone in Greece heard frome media about a child who wanted an operation but didnt have money.
It was a critical moment for the child..and he show on Tv an account numper.
Directly he sent a huge ammount..with no name...(ok he was thinking..i can not save all the world but i can afford this)

That is the Greek spirit ...
and count more than a No or Yes..

nk





Disappointing June U.S. Jobs Report: Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 11:54 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile

John M. Bland

Employment Data Falls Short
Disappointing June U.S. Jobs Report: Week Ahead


Greece: the con
GVI Forex john bland 11:42 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
Printing bank notes would produce chump change. The money supply is made up primarily of electronic bank balances. Bank notes are a tiny percentage of most countries' money supply. Printing billions of EUR in bank notes would be a massive undertaking, not to mention getting them into circulation.

What Happens if a Yes or No Greek Vote
GVI Forex 11:17 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
A "Yes" vote could mean a new government, a news series of negotiations and Greece's continued membership of the euro zone.

A "No" vote could mean the euro zone loses a member - a fate that could rock the stability of the currency.

What Happens if a Yes or No Greek Vote


Greece: the con
Paris ib 10:49 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
The Greek option: print Euros without ECB authority.

It is false to claim that Euro Zone Central Banks can no longer print currency. They can and do. They simply can not print national currencies. They print Euros.

Greece CAN and does PRINT EUROS


Greece: the con
Paris ib 10:45 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
Greece is voting on Sunday about whether to accept or NOT the terms of the Troika regarding debt repayment / rescheduling. I'm not sure if the people representing the Greek people are doing the best job with this. They have not proposed to cut military spending much at all. They have not proposed to cut the 700 million scheduled to be spent for military equipment this year. They should cut that to zero right off the bat.

The ECB has withdrawn funding from Greek banks. I'm not sure how they can justify that action and still say that European bank deposits are guaranteed up to 100.000 euros per account. At any rate it 'appears' that the Greek banks are running out of CASH. Why that is even possible when the Greek Central Bank can PRINT EUROS is hard to understand. Why aren't they printing Euros? Why aren't European bank deposits guaranteed up to 100.000 Euros in Greece? Why hasn't the Greek Central Bank provided Greek Banks with CASH?

No-one is voting on Greece exiting the Euro or NOT. Right now that would NOT even be possible given that Greece can ONLY PRINT EUROS. It can no longer print Drachmas. However this manoeuvre seems to be aimed at providing the TROIKA with legitimacy. If the Greeks vote YES then they accept the terms imposed by the TROIKA. And the rest of Europe sits quietly by and hopes the TROIKA doesn't get around to plundering their country too. In fact the idea seems to be: sit as quietly as possible and they will leave us alone.

The EURO has NOT stopped every Central Bank in Europe from printing currency. Only now every Central Bank in Europe can print Euros only, they can no longer print national currency. The Euro is in fact only a 'concept' currency.

The misreporting of the terms of the referendum is enormous. If the Greeks vote YES - and given the pressure they are under I think that is possible - then the plundering continues AND with a popular mandate. If they vote NO then the Greek Central Bank should simply start printing Euros and provide Greek banks with CASH. This would effectively bring the end to a unified EURO.

If the Greek Government does not order the Central Bank to start printing Euros following a NO vote then you have to question who the Greek Government is really working for. It looks very much like we are all being HAD here. This is simply a false dilemma and a con.

Greece Referendum: What Happens If They Vote ‘No’
Greece nk 08:15 GMT 07/04/2015
Good Morning,

bc,
after long time read your posts and i wanted to make a question which i think you experct to give an answer...

In Cyprus they did a haircut more than 30% to the people who had money in banks.
people think all over the world that if you have money in the bank ...at least money is safe.

in Greece maybe will do a haircut too 30% or more...

The point is what will huppen if people who watch all over the world Greece news ....starting to feel No safe to have their hard working money in the banks?

All the best
nk

Greece Referendum: What Happens If They Vote ‘No’
Syd 05:02 GMT 07/04/2015
The following scenarios are based on conversations with officials working on how to handle the Greek crisis, along with investors and economists.
What Happens Next?
With polls showing a tight result, the only thing certain about the referendum is the timing: polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and the result may be known before midnight.
Either way, what follows are emergency negotiations, the outcome deciding which side feels it has the upper hand.

Scenario 1: “Yes” – Then a Third Bailout

Scenario 2: Greece Vote “No”

Not everyone in Greece is finding the question easy to understand.


Greek Haircut
Mtl JP 03:11 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
talking of haircuts....
chinese stocks losses to date amount to approximately 2 trillion

it is still not likely that all margin has been cleaned out

Greek Haircut
Sydney ACC 01:22 GMT 07/04/2015
According FX Street the FT is carrying a report Greek banks are preparing contingency plans for a possible “bail-in” of depositors that could see deposits above €8,000 haircut by at least 30%.

Can't see it myself.

EUR/AUD
nw kw 00:18 GMT 07/04/2015
nw kw 17:32 GMT June 11, 2015
Thursday's Trading Thread: Reply
unusual open interest in gbp/aud it descended, keep I gbp

im on monthly top side still can be big move

Greek Voting
Mtl JP 23:38 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
ib I am with you about the Greek...

The Greek is oh so close to
- knocking the IMF out of business,
- collapsing the EU princes' Brussels castle before it is completed
- possibly re-writting the book on rolling debt over and over and over
- delivering a gut-ripping blow to modern bank debt front loaders

But ... there is a difference between what one wishes for at a personal level and what one judges realistic market outcome and reaction and how to juice it for max profit.

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS FRIDAY 3 July 2015
GVI Forex Blog 22:31 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

MARKETS AWAIT OUTCOME OF GREEK REFERENDUM

  • Greece holds a referendum on Sunday, with polls suggesting a close result
  • UK Chancellor’s Budget statement could revise down net borrowing for 2015/16
  • FOMC minutes and a slew of Fed speakers are due
  • All eyes will be on Sunday’s Greek referendum

    ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS FRIDAY 3 July 2015


    EUR/AUD
    Paris ib 19:19 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    FWIW This week we had ANOTHER outside week UP in EUR/AUD. That makes three since April 26th this year.

    Paris ib 19:59 GMT May 29, 2015
    EUR/AUD: Reply
    FWIW This week was the SECOND outside week UP in EUR/AUD in the past five weeks. What does that tell us? AUD to collapse? EURO to rally? Bit of both? We shall see.


    CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
    GVI Forex Blog 17:01 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

    Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

    CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 17:01 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    The Euro - without cooperation from all the European Central Banks - is just a figment of some Eurocrats' imaginations. Gotta love that. The French love affair with 'concepts' meets the real world.

    Good luck to Greece. I hope they understand that they hold all the cards. They don't have to leave the Euro. They don't have to accept extortionate terms on their illegitimate debt. They still have printing presses all they have to do is start using them.

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:56 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    That is a serious sell on the Euro until these fools in Europe (the Eurocrats) come to the table with a proposal. Far out. This strikes me as a major miscalculation.

    GVI Data Calendar for 6 July 2015
    GVI Forex Blog 16:42 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile


    July 3, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 6, 2015. Trading News Calendar

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, US- PMIs, CA- Ivey PMI

    • Far East: No Major Data
    • Europe: DE- Factory Orders
    • North America: US- PMIs, CA- Ivey PMI, COT Report



    GVI Data Calendar for 6 July 2015


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:42 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    The Eurocrats have NOTHING. They are holding a dud hand. If the Greeks tire of this rubbish they just start printing Euros and tell their creditors to go whistle. The Euro would cease to exist. We would instantly be back in a multiple currency Europe.

    The Pistol Shot


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:34 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "While we don’t know what will happen if a country drops out, as cunningly the euro experiment architects didn’t build in an exit strategy, we can be fairly certain it won’t involve a small army of Eurocrats marching around, checking the letters on your banknotes and taking them off you."

    Maybe those Germans should reprint that magazine cover. How about you replace Mr. Tsipras with a picture of Mr. Schaeuble holding a pistol to his own head? Hubris I think is a Greek word. :-)

    How to really stuff things up


    UPCOMING NEWS
    GVI Forex john bland 16:34 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)  
      GR Referendum
      MONDAY
      13:45 US final MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy
      14:00 CA Ivey PMI Latest view on economy
      14:00 US ISM SVC PMI Latest view on economy
      0:00 TUESDAY
      4:30 AU Australia Reserve Bank
      8:30 GB Ind Output production
      8:30 GB Mfg Output m production
      12:30 CA Trade C$bn
      12:30 US Trade external Accunts
      14:00 US JOLTS Survey mln top Yellen Statistic
      17:00 UST TRY 3-yr
      WEDNESDAY
      15:00 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
      17:00 UST TRY 10-yr
      18:00 USFRB Fed Minutes
      THURSDAY
      1:30 AU Unemployment Rate jobs data critical
      1:30 AU Employment jobs data critical
      1:30 CN CPI
      11:00 GB Bank of England
      12:30 US Weekly Jobless weekly jobs data
      17:00 UST TRY 30-yr
      FRIDAY
      8:30 GB Visible Trade external accounts
      8:30 GB Trade- Non-EU external accounts
      12:30 CA Payrolls jobs data critical

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).



    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:24 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "the Athenians who have recently tapped the ATMs, check your euros. If the serial number starts with a "Y" that means it was printed by the Bank of Greece and you should probably hang on to it because you might soon be able to sell it at a premium to a museum"

    They better come to a deal soon or this could get ugly.


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:14 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Gonna be an interesting week next week.

    Trade the Euro? Which one?

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:13 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    When you look at it it seems Greece has more options up its sleeve than Europe. So far it has just chosen not to use them. I think the Greeks should start bandying out the possibility that they do start printing if the ECB refuses to provide liquidity. I mean, why not?

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:10 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Iceland was a perfect example of ‘unorthodox’ crisis management. The country came out of the financial crisis of 2007-2008 by imposing strict cash flow controls, letting the banks go bankrupt and incarcerating bankers."

    The unorthodox solutions


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:07 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Greek Central Bank to start printing Euros without ECB authorisation, which would instantly result in a devaluation of Greek Euros that would be marked down in value against other Euros"... instant return to multiple currencies.

    Problem solved. :-))

    Check your Euros. Which denomination do you have?

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:05 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    FWIW

    Endless Game of Chicken


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:00 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Half of Greece’s debt was created through fraud between former Greek President Papandreou and Goldman Sachs. The goal of the fraud was to conceal Greece’s debt through currency swaps, but the plan actually doubled Greece’s debt (and made a fortune for Goldman Sachs). Even more debt was added by NATO countries forcing Greece to buy expensive weapons systems they could not afford."

    Seems wild. Is it true? No idea.


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 15:58 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Greece does have the nuclear option, one that could threaten to blow the whole euro-zone apart.... Euro's in Greece are printed by the Greek central bank. Therefore Syriza... could just command the Greek Central Bank to start printing Euros without ECB authorisation, which would instantly result in a devaluation of Greek Euros that would be marked down in value against other nation Euros."

    The game of chicken just got interesting....

    The Nuclear Option


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 15:55 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Greece has the physical means to create any amount of euros it wants.... it can create euros in a few "clicks" under the cover of the opaque Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. Greece is already estimated to have created up to 96 billion euros to help its banks using the ELA.

    On the other hand, the Greek central bank is able to turn on the printing press the old-fashioned way. As per the EU constitutional texts, printing euro banknotes (and manufacturing coins) has been physically delegated to the national central banks, including the National Bank of Greece. The Mint of Greece (IETA) thus already prints euro banknotes. It has the latest state-of the art printing presses – it just has to keep running them when no one is looking."

    So.... don't pay but print?

    Printing Euros


    IMF
    Paris ib 15:46 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    The level of farcical incompetence is staggering. But seriously not surprising. Once you got a 'diplome' in some places that alone is considered enough.... no matter you are an idiot with no skills. Surprising but a sorry part of the European culture.

    IMF
    Livingston nh 15:37 GMT 07/03/2015
    Every w/e for the last month (and more sure as the "deadlines" were pushed back) I have been expecting capital controls BUT I also expected a flurry of legal moves w/ respect to the banking system by Greece agencies and the EU -- Why don't the Greeks print the 10 EUR notes in large quantity? Why not file to compel the ECB to provide liquidity? Why not have the banks fail and call upon the deposit insurance? Why businesses don't file against the Greece gov't, NCB AND the ECB for injunctive relief?

    Don't these people like lawyers or is the judicial system in the EU geared only towards "do gooder" human rights" action and non competitive business cases?

    Anybody that doubts that the EU is merely a Trade Zone issuing scrip with no financial or political organization should try to justify what is happening in Europe

    AUDUSD
    Paris ib 14:20 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    AUD to crack 0.7500 ??? Soonish?

    AUDUSD
    Paris ib 14:08 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Over in Australia the talk is of a recession in the 2015-2016 financial year after more than 20 years without a recession. Given the level of private debt in Australia this recession looks set to be a doozy. More downside on the AUD? You betcha.

    A First Recession


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 13:58 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Yanis Varoufakis talks to Phillip Adams.

    Radio Interview


    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 13:56 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Greece will not leave the EURO regardless of the outcome of the vote on Sunday. Why? First because they can not print Drachmas any more. Second, because that is not the position of the Government. The current Government does not want to leave the Euro, they just want better repayment terms. Third, because the Euro Group does not want Greece to leave the Euro. Fourth, because the United States does not Greece to leave the Euro and team up with Russia and/or China.

    So forget the vote. Trade on the basis that Greece will remain in the Euro, because it will.

    The EU can't force the Greeks to do anything but they have shut the Greek banks out from European liquidity, which is what they have done in the run up to the referendum. So much for the Euro Zone guarantee that all European bank accounts are covered up to 100.000 euros. Obviously that guarantee is conditional.

    Both sides have played their trump cards. Where do we go from here? No idea. Maybe a fascist take over in Greece? No, I guess they already did that.

    No Printing Drachmas


    Friday's Trading Thread
    GVI Forex john bland 12:55 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Just like clockwork, algos just ran the LOD stops at 1.1082. New LOD 1.1079.

    AUDUSD
    nw kw 12:33 GMT 07/03/2015
    fast xag

    AUDUSD
    nw kw 12:31 GMT 07/03/2015
    Recent Canadian data could support the Bank of Canada cutting rates at the July 15th meeting. Canadian GDP for April was negative 0.1%, oil prices resumed the longer-term bearish trend, and if we see a Greek exit or a collapse in confidence with China, we could see concerns grow for the Canadian economy to enter a recession.

    IMF
    Mtl JP 12:28 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    they can print (or are close enough to printers) that it does not matter if they do get their interest / capital.

    the Q "What power do those seeking only the return of money have against a sovereign people who are disabled past the point of caring?" is all too easy to answer from their history record.

    AUDUSD
    london red 12:09 GMT 07/03/2015
    no much down to 7200/7150 for aussie. barrier at 7500 but plenty of stops below too. both aussie and kiwi can do multiple figs without bounce so be careful if bottom picking.

    AUDUSD
    nw kw 12:03 GMT 07/03/2015
    AUD/USD Fell to 6-year Low of 0.7510 on Weak Retail Sales & China Stocks

    AUDUSD
    Zurich EG 11:55 GMT 07/03/2015
    Was there any news why AUD fell out of bed today or did it follow drop in China stocks? Big move down.

    EUR/USD
    london red 11:30 GMT 07/03/2015
    on a yes vote dax likely to rally so although euro may open higher it will probably sell off as folk re apply euro hedge (sell) to new long dax positions. and since yes vote is likely to result in talks which leads to more can kicking, its a stable enough situation to use euro as funding currency again. couple that to the fact us/de spreads in particular 2yr are marching higher,its all a recipe for lower euro.
    no vote may actually see euro rally after initial 2 fig mark down since the opposite happens with the dax, folk cover shorts/long euro as they exit longs or go in short dax.
    but for sake of drawing a line and a situation where after some time everyone wins (creditors money is already lost), a parting of ways is best for greece and eu. eu is stronger without greece while the drachma will give greece a chance to let cheap tourism and manufacturing shine (long greece and short cee eg. poland or hungary (and to some extent france) should work on a 12-36 month basis in that regard)


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