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29/08/16 23:50 A JP Retail Sales yy con: -0.90% pre: -1.40%
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Monday Trading
dc CB 19:46 GMT 08/29/2016
or whatever FED dweeb happens to be running his mouth at any particular hour of the day.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

* Sometime after the election, historical data will show that in 2016 the U.S. was in recession.

Dallas Fed Respondent



Monday Trading
dc CB 19:41 GMT 08/29/2016
take a peek at Soybeans, Corn, Wheat.

Yes Virginia, there are markets that still respond to Fundamentals, supply and demand, and not just the USD/JPY, Treas Yield, Crude Algo Correlations.

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 19:29 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database



Monday Trading
Livingston nh 16:33 GMT 08/29/2016
JP - GC MArtin use to refer to milk price for NZD -- the rate cut saw a bounce but NZD/USD hasn't recovered much from Friday's Yellen scare -- a close below the 21 dma w/ the MACD not confirming recent high would seem a good short


Monday Trading
Mtl JP 16:14 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
nh r u trading
usdcad stalling in line with crude price-action just sitting
-
also , and this is exceptional for me, looking at going short nzdusd around 7275 if seen. have a view on this chart ? tia

Sure win trade
HK Kwun 15:58 GMT 08/29/2016
Sell Gold
Entry: 1322 Target: Stop: 1324

seem market act differently again, especially silver is leading gold right now, close at 1324 first, sleep now

No US rate hike
PAR 15:55 GMT 08/29/2016
Unless BMPS collapses , Brexit goes wrong or Draghi cuts rates to -1% and makes QE perpetual ..

No US rate hike
Mtl JP 15:49 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
so... long eurdlr with stop n reverse under 200dma ?

No US rate hike
PAR 15:46 GMT 08/29/2016
Bond and stocks rally as market realizes that Yellen is a barking dog and that no interest rate hike is on the horizon .

The US economy is growing at 1.1% in Q2 , maybe a little faster in Q3 . No exactly a booming economy .

US unemployment figures in reality are much higher than the BLS reports . Seasonal adjustments have become a joke .

In the past august unemployment figures usually have been mostly weak.

Feds mantra is : If you cannot convince , confuse .

Monday Trading
Mtl JP 15:42 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
as if the FED, ECB or BoJ are there for nothing (or horror of horrors they get blamed for all the non-performance) according to Roach's opinion

Global Growth – Still Made in China



BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading Room john bland 15:21 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
Atlanta Fed GDP now tracking estimate for 3Q16 GDP 3.50% (annualized) vs 3.40% on August 25.

Source: TTN

GBP/JPY
HK RF@ 15:05 GMT 08/29/2016
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 1.3350+- Target: 1.3310 Stop: 1.34

.

Sure win trade
HK Kwun 15:00 GMT 08/29/2016
sell because risk on, dow up 100pts, USD rate hike, sell sell sell

Sure win trade
HK Kwun 14:59 GMT 08/29/2016
Sell Gold
Entry: 1322 Target: Stop: 1332

Sell now

Monday Trading
Mtl JP 14:50 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
30% odds Janet and gang raise in September
43.6% odds Janet and gang raise in December

CME FedWatch tool


Monday Trading
Livingston nh 14:43 GMT 08/29/2016
JP - agree - JPY and CAD getting interesting again // maybe some US stox turmoil first

Monday Trading
Mtl JP 14:40 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile


nh in my current optique usdyen = bod to 102
for break N of 38 FIB

Monday Trading
Mtl JP 14:31 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
crude must be off some judging from usdcad finally above 50dma

Monday Trading
Livingston nh 14:31 GMT 08/29/2016
Bonds, Stox and most currencies post Asia o/n seem to express no fear of an imminent rate hike -- yen as always moving on its own issues

Monday Trading
Mtl JP 14:28 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
nh r u judging from the 0.5% up opening in DJIA ?

Monday Trading
Livingston nh 14:16 GMT 08/29/2016
It appears that the market has rejected September FOMC zombie resurrection -- it appears dead again until Friday


Seems the UK Gov. is wobbling about Brexit.
HK RF@ 13:28 GMT 08/29/2016

Anyone here has an idea, what will happen to the GBP, if Brexit will not push through and cancelled?

GVI Data Calendar for 30 August 2016
GVI Forex Blog 13:22 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile



August 29, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 30, 2016.

  • Far East: JP- Retail Salles
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, API Crude

GVI Data Calendar for 30 August 2016


BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
Livingston nh 13:21 GMT 08/29/2016
Jp - maybe convict would be better // re Fiscal "help" - the US has increased its deficit well beyond earlier levels (altho it has been declining as tax receipts have increased) but most of the increase has been for "lifestyle maintenance" - other countries are more constrained because of legal or financial impediments -- in general, inflation by fiscal moves (short of war) is not as effective as a "loose" Central Bank that makes MONEY MOVE

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
Mtl JP 13:13 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
re convince the FED
you have got to LOVE the lexicon: the FED.... is in-animate image when in fact the FED is a collection of PhDs and self and otherwise proclaimed to-be-respected and revered "experts" who, collectively, makeup the FED.

But for a tiny momentary flash I had misread convince as convict.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
Mtl JP 13:05 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
nh 12:53 do not despair, see JP 00:01
"help" was and is called, matter of time now it arriving
patience

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
Livingston nh 13:03 GMT 08/29/2016
John - now if we could just convince the Fed (or maybe Yellen should go back to her Pre KoolAde Opinion of Inflation Target)

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:56 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
If you can't hit the target, ignore it or change the target.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
Livingston nh 12:53 GMT 08/29/2016
Is there anything to suggest that the FOMC can be reasonably confident that the inflation target will be reached ?? -- Brainard & Co. may want MORE data

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady
GVI Forex Blog 12:39 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
U.S. Core PCE Deflator steady at 1.60%. Fed Targets PCE Deflator.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PCE Deflator Steady


Monday Trading
Mtl JP 12:35 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
1.3016
usdcad 50dma 1.3023 may need something more than rate differential to kick uP - like a selloff of crude maybe

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading Room john bland 12:30 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator July 2016
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Personal Income +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp v +0.20% prev.
PCE Defl +1.60% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.60% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Monday Trading
Livingston nh 12:27 GMT 08/29/2016
In a few minutes we get the FIRST test of the FOMC default position (Data Dependent) following Yellen's speech

so far FI is returning to sobriety -

Monday Trading
Mtl JP 12:13 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
The notes expected oil to be trading around the $55 US mark by the second half of 2016.
-
duh... in the meantime , the socialist NDP govt in Alberta continues on with its merry spending ways. Gov'ts are not the solution; gov'ts are a problem (particularly when they listen to the "experts" like those gathering at Davos, the IFM or current crop of central banker "experts" for more moRE MORE.

Gov'ts make for trading opportunities.

Over the past year, the federal Department of Finance Canada, Natural Resources Canada and the Prime Minister's Office — spanning two governments — have received at least a dozen briefings, some marked confidential or secret, on the health of Alberta's housing market (it's holding on), the direction of oil prices (who knows?), the health of individual energy companies (redacted), the strength of the job market (so-so) and whether pipelines will help (probably


Monday Trading
Mtl JP 12:00 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
Dillian could get filthy rich IF
1) he is correct and
2) he loads up usd and shorts cad$ and
3) uses high leverage
--
on the other side of coin he could get wiped out IF 1) he is incorrect and carries out 2) + 3)

Welcome to the USA:(
HK RF@ 11:13 GMT 08/29/2016

So many people were then cheating on Tweeter.

Nothing to worry about this miss: Soon another "Welcome to the USA" will pop up:)

Monday Trading
nw kw 11:03 GMT 08/29/2016
There’s trouble brewing in the Great White North

Dillian thinks the Canadian dollar could move to 1.60 to 1.70 to the US dollar (currently trading around 1.30). He believes that shorting the Canadian dollar is “one of the best macro opportunities over the next couple of years


Dillian lives in south and doesn't trade oil?

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/troubles-brewing-in-canada/ar-AAicv3i?li=AAadgLE&ocid=spartandhp


Monday Trading
Mtl JP 10:47 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
stox not liking Yellen's yikyak about strengthening case for raising interest rates; maybe theyb need time to adjust

Monday Trading
GVI Trading Room john bland 10:30 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
DAX -82
DJ -7
SP -1

10-yr 1.616% -1.4bp

Mylan
PAR 09:11 GMT 08/29/2016
By accident CEO fortunately sold a part of her shares just before the EpiPen story broke . Just lucky .

Monday Trading
GVI Trading Room john bland 09:03 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile

29-Aug MON
00:00 GB- Holiday
12:30 US- PCE Deflator
30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade


Trading Themes --
  • Equity markets are a touch softer as markets digest the prospect of an early Fed policy tightening that could come as early as mid-September, depending on U.S. data between now and then. Today is a holiday for London.

  • So what now? To her credit, Fed Chair Yellen calls the shots. She said Friday "I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook..." In other words, the Fed is ready to raise rates as soon as possible.

  • The next policy decision is scheduled for September 21. Between now and then we will see the August employment data (Friday) and, before that (Monday) the Core PCE Deflator. Barring unusual weakness in either, the Fed may want to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps at that meeting. Fed Funds futures late Friday placed about 40% odds on a September hike.

  • With good reason, the markets don't trust the verbal signals from the Fed. As an institution, it has lost all credibility with its poorly executed policy "transparency". I would not be surprised in the least if they hike on September 21, but feel certain the current plan is to hike no later than the December 21 meeting. Obviously. unexpected developments could derail that plan. Market odds on one rate hike by the are 80%.

  • Many feel now the U.K. economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com




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London 07:57 GMT 08/29/2016
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 133.815 Target: Stop:

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Posted with permission of global-view.com

Forex Signals


Welcome to the USA:(
Mtl JP 07:17 GMT 08/29/2016  - My Profile
HK RF@ 04:21 - False report

False Reports of Shots Fired at LAX Cause Panic, Chaos


Brexit may send EU 'down the drain' - German vice chancellor
HK RF@ 04:29 GMT 08/29/2016

Germany's vice-chancellor has warned the future of the EU could be in doubt if the UK's exit is handled badly.

Sigmar Gabriel said the EU would go "down the drain" if other states followed Britain's lead and that the UK could not keep the "nice things" about Europe while taking no responsibility.

It comes as Theresa May summoned ministers for a meeting on Wednesday to discuss ideas for the UK's withdrawal.

Downing Street said Brexit was "top" of the prime minister's agenda.

But a report in The Sunday Times suggested her cabinet was split over leaving the single market.




The UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum vote on 23 June.

Mr Gabriel, who is also economy minister in Germany's governing coalition and Chancellor Angela Merkel's deputy, told a news conference that as a result, the world now regarded Europe as an unstable continent.

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30-Aug TUE
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
31-Aug WED
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
07:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Employment
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
1-Sep THU
All Day Mfg PMIs
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
2-SEP FRI
12:30 US- Employment
12:30 US/CA- Trade


Trading Themes --
  • Equity markets are closing higher as markets are digesting the Fed policy tightening signal from Friday. Some are interpreting the signal as an indication that the economy is improving. U.S. inflation data Monday indicated price pressures should not be a causes for Fed worry.

  • Fed Chair Yellen calls the shots at the Fed. She said Friday "I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook..." In other words, the Fed is ready to raise rates as soon as possible.

  • The next policy decision is scheduled for September 21. Before then we will see August employment data. Barring unusual weakness, the Fed may want to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps at that meeting. Fed Funds futures place about 40% odds on a September hike.

  • With good reason, markets simply don't trust the unreliable verbal signals from the Fed. As an institution, it has lost all credibility with its poorly executed policy "transparency". I would not be surprised by a September 21 hike, but feel certain the current plan is to hike no later than the December 21 meeting. Market odds on one rate hike by yearend are 90%.

  • Many feel now the U.K. economy could flourish once it is out from under the control of Brussels. Furthermore, the sharp GDP decline since Brexit has been an immediate economic stimulus.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founder Global-View.com


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