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August Newsletter
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:33 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
In the August issue:

• Forex Trading Outlook for August 2014 (Video Update)

• 12 Strategies I Use to Trade in a Low Volatility Market

Thoughts from the Trading Trenches - August Newsletter

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Obama to Speak
SaaR KaL 19:52 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
way over rated
This like Chick Corea listening to Moddona
Please Bro

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Obama to Speak
Paris ib 19:41 GMT 08/01/2014
The big O.


Obama to Speak
Paris ib 19:37 GMT 08/01/2014

Obama to Speak
dc CB 18:59 GMT 08/01/2014
actually we are the losers...with a big Ls on the forehead...because WTF are we doing even knowing that the O's giving a presser.

The Non-Losers are into the second martini, watching the ocean, from the deck on the house or on the yacht.

Crist it's Aug 1


Obama to Speak
Paris ib 18:59 GMT 08/01/2014
"Meanwhile, the US has promised to give $8 million to Ukraine to strengthen its porous border"..

8 million?


Obama to Speak
Paris ib 18:54 GMT 08/01/2014
CB - the thing is he comes across as TOTALLY disengaged. He doesn't take questions, seems totally disinterested. Mind you bear in mind the rest of the world has leaders of a similar ilk for the most part. Sad moment in history.

Obama to Speak
dc CB 18:53 GMT 08/01/2014
It's so sad. this is all we've got to present to the world?

Obama to Speak
Paris ib 18:52 GMT 08/01/2014
Progress on the Ukraine. Russia has already released a statement.


Obama to Speak
Paris ib 18:43 GMT 08/01/2014
At this point does anyone even like the guy?

Obama to Speak
GVI Forex john 18:25 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Due in 10 mins but he usually does not show up on time.

Topic unannounced.

Today's Fairy Tale
dc CB 18:02 GMT 08/01/2014
If you’re trying to persuade children or grandchildren to save rather than ordering them to do so, you could start with some simple numbers. If you take $5,000 in savings from a few summer jobs and put it in a Roth at age 19, it will grow to $52,006 by the time you’re 67 if it grows at a 5 percent annual rate. Wait until 25 to start with that same $5,000, however, and the balance at age 67 is just $38,808.

Things get more interesting, however, if you pledge that once a Roth is open, you’ll spend a few years helping a young adult max out the $5,500 contribution each year as long as that person earns the $5,500 necessary to make a deposit of that size. If that 19-year-old starts with $5,000 and makes the maximum contribution each year until 67, the ending balance is $1,164,985 if it grows at a 5 percent annual clip.


For Teenagers, Starting and Saving in a Roth I.R.A.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 17:40 GMT 08/01/2014

We have been warning for a while that not only is the high-yield credit market sending a warning but that it is critical for equity investors to comprehend why this is such bad news.

This week has seen exuberant equity markets start to catch down to high-yield's warning but today's surge in HY credit spreads to six month wides is a rude awakening.

Between outflows, a huge wall of maturities (and no Fed liquidity), and corporate leverage, the reach-for-yield just became an up-in-quality scramble. HY spreads are over 70bps wider than cycle tights implying the S&P 500 should be around 1775. ZH

High-Yield Credit Crashes To 6-Month Lows As Outflows Continue

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 17:30 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.50% neutrality?

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex jay Meisler 17:29 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Deja vu for the bond bears

Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 16:57 GMT 08/01/2014
just signs of 10 year topping. question will be whether 2.5 is regained and held on the close.
s&p bounced from top of my exp range 1894-1916. if doesnt extend past 1932 then risks further test to downside.

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 16:26 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
•Geopolitical developments and Fed rate expectations to continue to buffer markets

•MPC policy to remain unchanged, but debate becoming more heated

•Euro area and US data watched for further signs of divergence


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 16:24 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

August 1, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, August 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

    Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: CH- PMIs.
  • North America: CA- Holiday.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
not much of a blaze! lol

he has been lying low today...

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 15:56 GMT 08/01/2014
Steve Liesman's Hair must be on fire

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 15:54 GMT 08/01/2014

that escalated rapidly

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 15:52 GMT 08/01/2014

check out the 5ver...

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
2-yr 0.49% vs. 0.54% pre-data

btw this is a big move for that maturity.

Is it going Pear Shaped?
Paris ib 15:41 GMT 08/01/2014
"One can barely imagine the tectonic geopolitical repercussions were the false flag to be fully exposed."

Well actually you can imagine. Reset all right. But perhaps not the one Christine Lagarde was planning on.

Pepe Escobar

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 15:40 GMT 08/01/2014

still selling corp Debt

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Equity markets are off their lows after a miss on the NFP report today. The data put to bed speculation about an early rate hike. The data suggest that recent sluggish growth will persist. Some traders are talking about a "Goldilocks" market again. I don't see it! EURUSD is still pivoting the 1.3400 line on  weak Eurozone.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower following  U.S. data. Yields on the European periphery remain up. EZ 10-yr 1.14%, -4bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.56%  -6bp. UK Mfg PMI data were a disappointment  +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.51%, -5bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe are ending weaker. .U.S. share futures are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:31 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Trading is pretty choppy this morning as participants evaluate the July jobs and PCE inflation data, but US Market Update: Jobs and Core PCE Data in Focus

Is it going Pear Shaped?
Paris ib 15:24 GMT 08/01/2014
In the midst of the shifting sands of geopolitics.... plans are made but sometimes they go pear shaped. It still looks like there are plans to drag Russia into an open military confrontation but the casus belli might need to be tweeked. The chinless deviants running Europe haven't so much as said boo (I wonder what their swiss bank accounts look like). But still plans go wrong and information and analysis can't always be blocked. This saga is far from over. The Bay of Tonkin comes to mind. And it does nothing to enhance the status of the world's international reserve currency. In a FIAT money system without status you have nothing.

MH17 Again

July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
dc CB 15:23 GMT 08/01/2014
Today, we find more of the same, when we learn that while the headline ISM of 57.1, seemingly the highest since April 2011 and driven by the all important New Orders print of 63.4 which was the highest since December 2013, was really a figment of seasonal adjustment.

The table below shows how the ISM takes its unadjusted, actual data, based on respondents saying whether the data is "better", "same" or "worse", and applies a seasonal adjustment factor, getting the adjusted number.

How The Worst New Orders Number In 6 Months Became The Highest Of 2014

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:22 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
IMO this 1.04 area is base for 30 weeks afterwards
tgt 1.2 for USDCAD
Any thoughts?

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:14 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
seems wants to south for a good while
1.100 area to 1.04
in about 3 weeks

Risk On/Off Heat Map
Livingston nh 15:08 GMT 08/01/2014
Treasurys back to safe haven trade into the w/e -- EU stox still on the back foot so we need to wait for close before US stox and USD pick a direction

Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 15:06 GMT 08/01/2014
should bounce well at 2.5 john. if not then one mother of a dollar sell off coming. shouldnt happen, its just possible. my base view is 2.5 bounce.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 14:59 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.516% -6.4bps back to 2.500%??

Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 14:50 GMT 08/01/2014
first poss usd long yen and cad at 35 and 60 respectively. 10/20 for yen and 200 day ma cad are firmer supports.

July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
dc CB 14:23 GMT 08/01/2014
Wood Pallets is the only commodity reported in short supply

a while ago I wrote that my neighbor's pallet company is cranking them out 7 days a week.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
london red 14:21 GMT 08/01/2014
john watching your 200 hour and also 50 on swissy. euro at 13470 smacks a good sell. and as long as we come back down to 30/40 or lower would be ok for next (short). a close near highs if around 60/70 would set us up for a rebound to 135xx next week.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.540% -4bp

July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
ISM Mfg beat estimates. Employment PMI improves. Mixed Markit and ISM readings, but both are at high levels.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
NY JM 14:03 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Data roulette continues...

June 2014 Construction Spending
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile


-1.80% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.10% (r +0.80%) prev. rev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources
July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile


57.1 vs. 56.0 exp. vs. 55.3 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Final July 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment Final U of M data outperforms expectations. Data revised up slightly

July 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI
london red 13:57 GMT 08/01/2014
chicago yest suggests some weakness but other surveys from july good

PAR 13:56 GMT 08/01/2014
Jobs report gives Yellen an alibi to keep rates lower for longer . Bad for mainstreet , good for wallstreet .

Of to the beach . Have a nice weekend .

Final July 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

81.8 vs. 81.5 exp. vs. 81.3 preliminary

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

TTN: Live News Special Offer

July 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Another mild disappointment. ISM at the top of the hour matters more.

Next Page

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