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31/07/15 12:30 A CA GDP mm con: 0.00% pre: -0.10%
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GVI Forex john bland 11:11 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Bund yield has eased back now to 0.652% -2.2bp

Not sure the flash HICP justified the spike, but but was coincidental with the data and EURUSD surge.

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:11 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD:1.0971

1.0967 is the level that needs to hold to keep a bid. Otherwise range extends back to around 1.0950

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:08 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
We would like to make this a permanent feature to encourage more trades, scenarios, etc so please use it.

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NY JM 11:00 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
John. good alert on the bund correlation

EURCHF
Maribor 10:48 GMT 07/31/2015
Despite EUR traded higher than 1,098 it is not out of the woods - few more hours must be above ~1,097 to change direction to up according to my approach. AUDUSD also has not (yet) confirmed USD weakness - must trade for some time above ~0,73 for that.

Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 10:27 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
PAR thanks for reminding us about Puerto Rico. I gather they could default on payments Saturday (due by Monday). Markets seem to be unperturbed by this prospect?

ZERO RATES GOOD or BAD ?
PAR 10:22 GMT 07/31/2015

Bill Gross: Low interest rates have created ‘zombies’ instead of curing the economy

Even for higher-rated companies, cheap debt is fueling a boom in stock buybacks rather than encouraging investment and job creation, Gross said, noting that buybacks are running at an annual rate of $1.02 trillion, well above the 2007 high of $863 billion.

As a result, Gross said the mechanism of creative destruction, “the supposed heart of capitalistic progress,” has been neutralized, with old or ailing companies on life support and new investment stifled.

“Low interest rates are not the cure — they are part of the problem,” Gross wrote.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-gross-low-interest-rate-cure-creating-zombie-economy-2015-07-30?dist=beforebell

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GVI Forex john bland 10:18 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
The EURUSD 100-day average (1.1015) plus the 20-day average (1.0987) are an indication of how flat the market has been for months.

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GVI Forex john bland 10:16 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
from GVI Forex


Notice there is a cluster of technical targets just below and above the 1.1000 line. Short-covering into the weekend could generate more EURUSD demand into the weekend. Month End could be a factor as well.

PUERTO RICO
PAR 10:11 GMT 07/31/2015
Investors are bracing for Puerto Rico to miss about $58 million in bond payments in coming days, as the U.S. commonwealth attempts to restructure $72 billion of debt.

Saturday’s deadline could mark the first skipped payment to bondholders since Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla last month said that the island’s debts were unsustainable and urged negotiations with creditors. Because Saturday is a weekend, payment can be made Monday, a spokeswoman for Puerto Rico said.

Public Finance Corp., a financing unit for Puerto Rico’s government, this month notified holders of appropriation bonds, typically those backed by funds set aside by the legislature, that it hadn’t transferred money to a trustee to pay the debt due at the beginning of August. The corporation said the legislature never actually appropriated the funds. The missed transfer led some ratings firms to say the island was highly likely to default.

Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 10:07 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Watch the bund yield

Friday's Trading Thread
london red 10:06 GMT 07/31/2015
right Jay, its end of month and very often you get eurgbp buying and weve seen it move half a fig which must manifest itself in euro and cable. add to this the big 110 expiry today and you are getting a draw to the fig. there is some big res at 10998 and some stops likely sit abv. so youve got some specific factors at play but plenty willing sellers i suspect at 10990/98 11020 11050 and 11070 with more stops over 11084.

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GVI Forex Blog 10:06 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

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Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:02 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Most of the eurusd buying seems to be coming out of its crosses more

Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 09:59 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD appears to be rising on the back of the flash July HICP estimate. Before the data, EURUSD was 1.0935 now its 1.0978

In the same time period, the DE 10 yr yield has shot higher from 0.620% -5.2bps to 0.665% -0.9bp.

Good for them; Bastards!!! But only 50B:(
HK RF@ 09:59 GMT 07/31/2015

Swiss National Bank reports 50bn franc loss

The soaring value of the Swiss franc against the euro has led Switzerland's central bank to report a first half loss of 50bn francs (£33bn).

The bank, which is owned by the Swiss federal government, said the loss could affect its ability to pay a dividend this year.

Those dividends are traditionally used to pay for public services.

Switzerland shocked markets in January when it abandoned its four-year currency peg to the euro.

The move saw the Swiss franc skyrocket in value as investors piled into the currency over fears of a renewed eurozone debt crisis despite the imminent onset of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).




Peg

The continued strength of the Swiss franc is hurting exports from the country which are down 2.6% this year. The tourism industry has also reported fewer visitors and retailers are also struggling.

The first-half loss was almost entirely - 47.2bn francs - the result of losses on foreign exchange positions, which occurred in the weeks that immediately follow the bank's decision to remove the currency peg against the euro.

Since ending the 1.20 francs per euro cap, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has intervened in the currency market by buying euros to weaken the franc, which currently hovers at around 1.06 francs per euro.

'Fluctuations'

The bank, which also has several private shareholders, warned that its full-year results would rely heavily on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and broader financial markets.

"Strong fluctuations are therefore to be expected, and only provisional conclusions are possible as regards the annual result," the central bank said in a statement.

The SNB said euro-denominated assets made up 42% of its investment portfolio at the end of June, unchanged from the end of March, and 32% was held in US dollars, also unchanged.

Peter Hegglin, the head of Switzerland's 26 canton finance directors, said he was "not going to assume" that the first half loss would mean the SNB would not be paying a full year dividend, suggesting the bank could still reverse its fortunes.

link


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 09:46 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Chris obviously not, but policy changes are based on an accumulation of data, and the ECB's sole target is inflation ("just below 2.00%").

BREAKING NEWS
London Chris 09:32 GMT 07/31/2015
It won't change ECB policy....

AceTrader Jul 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:27 GMT 07/31/2015
Update Time: 31 Jul 2015 08:10 GMT

USD/JPY - 124.22
Although dollar has retreated after yesterday's rise above previous July's peak at 124.48 to a fresh 7-week high of 124.58, intra-day rebound after a brief fall to 123.91 in Asia suggests said pullback has ended and upside bias remains for upmove from July's bottom at 120.42 to resume and yield further gain to further headway to 125.00/07 later.

On the downside, only below 123.80 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top is made and shift risk to downside for a retracement to 123.55 and then 123.33 before recovery occurs.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 09:16 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Higher Core inflation mildly bullish for EUR0

BREAKING NEWS: EZ flash HICP Steady to Higher
GVI Forex Blog 09:08 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile

Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

EZ flash HICP (CPI) in line with street estimates

BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash HICP Steady to Higher


BREAKING NEWS
PAR 09:03 GMT 07/31/2015
CORE CPI 1.0% vs exp 0.8%

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 09:01 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
EZ Unemployment June 2015





ALERT
11.10% vs. 11.10% exp. vs. 11.10% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 09:00 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) July 2015





ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
CORE
yy: +1.00% vs. vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.

Global-VIew EZ and German Charts
http://goo.gl/cMwmm1




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EURCHF
Maribor 08:55 GMT 07/31/2015
EURCHF reached target 1,056 from few days ago; now channel edge is at 1,054 (=buy level);
-GBPUSD is probably targeting ~1,5518, which seems good buy level;
-GBPCHF targets ~1,4982.
EUR is technically in downtrend for at least the next few hours, must trade above approx. 1,098 to be in uptrend again.

German Retail Sales Miss. Mild Risk-On into Month-End
GVI Forex Blog 08:51 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile

31 JULY 2015, 08:50 GMT >> FOREX NEWS  >> JP-CPI in line >> DE- Retail Sales misses>> EZ- flash HICP DUE>> CA- GDP- DUE>> US- Chicago PMI & University of Michigan Survey DUE >> FOREX >> USD mixed,  EUR CROSSES: higher, COMMODITY CURRENCIES: weaker >> EQUITIES: FAR EAST- up, EUROPE- mixed, U

German Retail Sales Miss. Mild Risk-On into Month-End



GREECE
PAR 08:35 GMT 07/31/2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/31/business/bailout-money-goes-to-greece-only-to-flow-out-again.html?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0


Bailout Money Goes to Greece, Only to Flow Out Again

AceTrader Jul 31: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:32 GMT 07/31/2015
31 Jul 2015 08:06GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although investors shrugged off the release of unexpectedly fall in Germany's retail sales last month and lifted price from 1.0928 to 1.0967 shortly after European morning, renewed selling interest quickly emerged there and knocked price lower to 1.0921 before recovering.

At present, investors are awaiting to the release of euro zone's inflation and unemployment, Italy's inflation reports and producer prices at 09:00GMT.
Bids are noted 1.0910/05 with mixture of bids and stop at 1.0900-1.0890 and around 1.0870.
On the upside, offers from various accounts are touted at 1.0970-80 and more at 1.0990-00 with stops building up above 1.1000.

BREAKING NEWS: German Retail Sales in June Weaker Than Expected
GVI Forex Blog 08:27 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile

EZ and German Charts EARLIER: German month on month Retail Sales much weaker than expected

BREAKING NEWS: German Retail Sales in June Weaker Than Expected


BREAKING NEWS
PAR 08:21 GMT 07/31/2015
DJ Italy's Unemployment Rate Rises Again in June -- Market Talk

0818 GMT [Dow Jones]--Italy unemployment rate is on the rise again in June as more people look for work, says national statistics institute Istat. June's jobless rate climbs to 12.7%--its highest since November 2014--from 12.5% in May. The rate had dropped in April, while stable in May. The youth unemployment rate also heads north, increasing to 44.2%--its highest ever on record--from 42.3% in May. Although the jobless figures, a key concerns of voters, will be disappointing for the government of Premier Matteo Renzi, Istat says part of the unemployment increase is due to more people looking for work, hence being more encouraged to find employment. (liam.moloney@dowjones.com)




BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 08:16 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
Big miss in DE Retail Sales earlier.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john bland 08:15 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
German Real Retail Sales June 2015




Earlier NEWS Release
mm: -2.30% vs. 0.10% exp. vs. +0.50% (+0.40%) prev.
yy: +5.10% vs. +4.10% exp. vs. -0.40% (-1.0%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

EURUSD
london red 07:51 GMT 07/31/2015
eurgbp month end buying has finally materialised and this has seen cable move under 15567 fib. as suggested yest, id be a buyer on dips. the channel ssup today comes in at 15508 with prev lows 15528/22 expected to offer some sup as well. only a close below the channel points to stronger downside to 152/153. but mkt is going to be focused on first new mpc day and will be long gbp into event.

EURUSD
PAR 07:02 GMT 07/31/2015
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.0950 Target: 1.1550 Stop: 1.0924

Strong European economic data and stock markets supporting Euro.

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jkt abel 05:29 GMT 07/31/2015
JP, still playing for 1.12?

AceTrader Jul 31: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 04:19 GMT 07/31/2015
31 Jul 2015 02:34GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr rose above previous July's peak at 124.48 to a fresh 7-week high of 124.58 in NY morning on Thursday after official preliminary data showed that U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, lack of follow-through buying prompted profit-taking and dlr later retreated to 124.09 in NY afternoon.
In early Friday's trading, dlr met renewed selling at 124.28 (AUS) and then fell to 123.93 after tripping light stops below 124.00 b4 staging a recovery.
Intra-day weakness in the Nikkei and Chinese stocks suggests sideways trading below said yesterday's 124.58 high would continue.

Today, looks like consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen in Asia n Europe b4 the release of U.S. Chicago PMI and Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index at 13:45GMT and 14:00GMT respectively. Having said that, investors should also take note to the release of Japan's construction orders and housing starts at 05:00GMT.

At present, offers are tipped at 124.10-20 and more at 124.35/40 with mixture of offers and stops at 124.50-60.
On the downside, bids are placed in 123.80-123.60 region and around 123.50 with buying interest from various accounts at 123.30-20.

Earlier on Friday, official data showed that the total work force that Japan’s unemployment rate rose unexpectedly last month to 3.4%, from 3.3% in the preceding month.
Meanwhile, data showed that household spending in Japan fell more-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted -2.0% from 4.8% in the preceding month, Tokyo's core CPI fell to at an annualized rate of -0.1% from 0.1% in the preceding month, and Japan's national core CPI remained unchanged unexpectedly at 0.1% last month.

RBA’s Stevens Says China Portfolio Flows Could Be $400 Billion
Syd 03:45 GMT 07/31/2015
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said China’s two-way portfolio flows following liberalization could be $400 billion a year and urged Asia to develop its financial markets to absorb the potential influx.
Speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia in Sydney Thursday, Stevens said China’s plan to free up its financial markets was a “big challenge” for the region, but one that would bring “considerable benefits” to Chinese savers and international investors.

“If you thought that possibly the size of portfolio flows in and out of China might be the same size relative to China’s GDP as such flows are around the rest of Asia, then those flows are going to end up being much, much bigger than they are right now,” Stevens said. “They could end up being something of the order of $400 billion a year.”


China's Great Short Seller Suddenly Turns Bullish
Syd 03:41 GMT 07/31/2015
Jon Carnes is about the last person on Earth you’d expect to turn bullish on China’s stock market.
This is a man who built his career on wagers against Chinese companies, bets so successful that one analyst ranks the 41-year-old among the best short sellers worldwide -- more effective than industry giants from Carson Block to David Einhorn. Carnes’s bearish research caused such a stir in 2011 that he fled China and had to fight off fraud allegations. The ordeal landed one of his colleagues in a Henan province prison.

So when Carnes says he’s now an advocate of investment in China Inc. -- with a 111 percent rally forecast for the Shanghai Composite Index -- it’s worth paying attention.


Australia's Central Bank Has Little to Do on Rates for Now -- Market Talk DJ
Livingston nh 02:00 GMT 07/31/2015
Australia is in a HOT ZONE of currency war - RBA is at little
risk of cutting rates -- seems mostly real estate domestic inflation // export based economies need to stay competitive // Australia population is too low to stimulate domestic demand sufficient to absorb its wealth // RBA will cut

AceTrader Jul 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:28 GMT 07/31/2015
Update Time: 31 Jul 2015 01:07 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0936
Euro's decline from this week's high of 1.1129 (Monday) to as low as 1.0894 yesterday signals correction from July's 12-week bottom at 1.0808 has ended there and as long as 1.1122 (previous support, now resistance) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, a daily close below 1.0869 would retain bearishness for a re-test of 1.0808 next week.

On the upside, only a move back above 1.1122 would prolong choppy trading but price should falter below 1.1080 (post-FOMC high on Wed) and yield another fall.

Post a Trade Thread
Mtl JP 00:38 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
forget guru. would pip thief be fine w/u ?

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:17 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
JP, I do not claim to be a guru, just a trader, but I am an expert at picking out key levels. I only pick them out in one way.

The timing of your question is good for after many years of trying to perfect it, I have just finished creating a system that incorporates my skill at picking levels.

If anyone would like details on my system, send me an EMAIL


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:15 GMT 07/31/2015  - 
My Profile

JP, I do not claim to be a guru but I am an expert at picking out key levels. After many years of trying to perfect it, I have just finished creating a system that incorporates my skill at picking levels.

If anyone would like details, send me an EMAIL

Post a Trade Thread
Mtl JP 00:02 GMT 07/31/2015  - My Profile
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:13 / re key level: there are many ways to defifine "key" level.

how do u define yours ?

Australia's Central Bank Has Little to Do on Rates for Now -- Market Talk DJ
Syd 23:43 GMT 07/30/2015
If Australian central bank policy makers were content to leave policy steady a month ago, as tensions on Greece and China were escalating and bulk commodity prices were testing new lows, why would they seriously contemplate easing now?, says Stephen Walters, chief economist at J.P. Morgan, Australia. Most economists expect no change in rates. In the last month, key commodity prices are firmer, the Australian dollar is 2% lower, and financial-market tensions over Europe have eased, says Walters. The Australian dollar is adjusting broadly lower as officials had hoped, easing up financial conditions and boosting competitiveness, he adds.

Post a Trade Thread
NY JM 23:09 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile

Entry: 4 PM London fix trade Target: Stop:

Month end flows can be tricky but if there is USD selling into the month end London fix, it would (IMHO) be a buying opportunity. Keep this on your blotter for Friday.


Post a Trade Thread
gc sf 21:01 GMT 07/30/2015
if AUD were 7250 you could be sure that EUR would continue immediately down to 1.0840-50

but with it trading 7290 suggests there is still short covering interest that could see EUR up to 1.0965/70 at some point during the day.

also we know that GBP will be going bid again as soon as Europe comes in - despite whatever moves occur in Asia or NYK.

$Yen as well -- there is alot factored into $YEN @ 124.15 after a 58 high .. this is moving into what has been the top for Asia several times.

Post a Trade Thread
NY JM 20:31 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
Note how 1.0935 res held


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