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FOREX FORUM
31/10/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan con: 0.10% pre: 0.10%
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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Mtl JP 17:24 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile


2000.00 as magnet

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 17:12 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
7-yr 2.018%
bid to cover 2.42 vs. 2.48
Lousy auction

From the FRBNY Repo Desk
dc CB 17:01 GMT 10/30/2014
adjustments to rates thru Nov.
for the next 2 weeks - down to 3 basis points.

Yes Virginia, that's a Max of $300Bln overnight for 0.03%

Oct 29 adjustment annc


Erratic moves
dc CB 16:53 GMT 10/30/2014
via ZH

CNBC screen cap


Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 16:51 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
GBPNZD Shorts
	High	Low
Avg 2.0690 2.0046
Max 2.0835 2.0186
Min 2.0553 1.9913

12/1/2014 1.9872 1.9710

Maybe next day

Erratic moves
dc CB 16:47 GMT 10/30/2014
It's Window Dressing Time, and as mentioned yest Closing Books for the Year for Mutual Funds.

apparently Visa and Master Card today became "must be shown to own" stocks for the year.

SnP back above or well above 2000 would be nice for them.

Taiwan's exports to China down 6% for Q1-3
HK RF@ 16:46 GMT 10/30/2014

Shrinking.

READ


Erratic moves
Mtl JP 16:43 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.2625-ish Target: 1.2590 and lower Stop: >1.2635+

and prayer to FX gods

Erratic moves
Livingston nh 16:31 GMT 10/30/2014
Big turn in European stock markets especially Italy - US treasuries basically unmoved since this morning BUT 7 yr auction in 1/2 hr


Erratic moves
PAR 16:18 GMT 10/30/2014
some of the moves today look very extreme , real pain . The rouble today ....Greek peripheral debt ......and look no further than gold shares over the last 48 hours ...proper volume , no real explanation ....for what its worth ( and never one to spread rumours ;) ) but just been told rumour of a $750m 6ishx levered quant fund shut last night. Certainly feels like that .

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Livingston nh 16:16 GMT 10/30/2014
A comment about the "analysts" who are dismissing the GDP fig -- these were the guys that were in the 3% or lower camp so they need to say why they missed - number will probably be revised higher because of the final trade figs // Federal spending - the 3rd qtr is the Final budget qtr of fiscal yr so "use or lose it" applies - state and local govs are coming off the floor AND a stronger economy always produces more tax revenue but these analysts probably have never seen a rate hike either

Inventories were bought down so probably restocking will be "blamed" for Q4 surprise - "IT's always somethin'!" Professor Rosannadana

DO'H Award of the Week
dc CB 16:01 GMT 10/30/2014
And the Runner Up:

The reason the United States lags many countries in both speed and affordability, according to people who study the issue, has nothing to do with technology. Instead, it is an economic policy problem — the lack of competition in the broadband industry.

“It’s just very simple economics,” said Tim Wu, a professor at Columbia Law School who studies antitrust and communications and was an adviser to the Federal Trade Commission. “The average market has one or two serious Internet providers, and they set their prices at monopoly or duopoly pricing.”

Why the U.S. Has Fallen Behind in Internet Speed and Affordability


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 16:00 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile

15:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets are in a MIXED RISK posture late in Europe. Headline U.S. preliminary 3Q14 GDP data were a stronger than expected 3.50%, but analysts dismissed the report due to an unexpected surge in government spending due to defense. Defense spending can be very lumpy. In the Far East, equities ended  mostly higher.  European bourses are trading  mixed late. U.S. shares are  mixed as well at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are lower. 10-yr bund and gilts yields are down. Peripheral European bond yields are mostly up.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.



DO'H Award of the Week
dc CB 15:57 GMT 10/30/2014
It would be the Wall Street equivalent of a parole violation: Just two years after avoiding prosecution for a variety of crimes, some of the world’s biggest banks are suspected of having broken their promises to behave.

Prosecutors Suspect Repeat Offenses on Wall Street


Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 15:41 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
EURCAD
I am buying
	High	Low
Avg 1.4470 1.4056
Max 1.4652 1.4233
Min 1.4331 1.3921

12/1/2014 1.4808 1.4706

Breaking Bad
HK RF@ 15:40 GMT 10/30/2014


Silver will most-probably hit 16.0, which may provide a terra firma.

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 15:31 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Al - I will try that.

Hard to believe half way is 1.26385 (HOD 1.2639).
Thank you very helpful!

Breaking Bad
HK RF@ 15:27 GMT 10/30/2014


Imitation jewelry are so nice and looking like originals, thus reducing the demand for gold.
Women go today for fashion, not for value of jewelries.
With the modern Tech. of processing gold/silver one can get nice pieces made from few grams only.

No need for big quantities of gold for a lady to shine.

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Dillon AL 15:26 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
When pivots are that far away then you have to use half way points

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 15:25 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD 1.2683 pivot is distant
S1 1.2594 could come back into play
S2 1.2545 held nicely earlier (1.2548 LOD)

Breaking Bad
dc CB 15:24 GMT 10/30/2014
down to below 1150 will beat the believers to a bloody pulp

dec gold


Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 15:24 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
RF I doubt it
might happen though

Breaking Bad
HK RF@ 15:23 GMT 10/30/2014


If silver breaks below today LO, then see you at 15.50.

Breaking Bad
HK RF@ 15:21 GMT 10/30/2014


Probably gold will show first 1185 again.

Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 15:18 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Silver and gold
these levels are for last call for alcohol ......Buyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Tech trade
Provo John 15:07 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Should read read just shy of 50%

Tech trade
Provo John 15:05 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6025 Target: sub 1.60 Stop: 1.6036

Strictly from a fib tech view gbp/usd is trading ( 1.6163 - 1.5874 ). The overnight low was just a few pips shy of the 23% at 1.5946. It is now trading just shy of the 20% at 1.6028. So, I took a short @ 25 with a stop and reverse at 36. If I get stopped out I will be long for a run to 1.6065

Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 15:04 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
NZDUSD ...heads to 0.8020 from here

BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 14:52 GMT 10/30/2014
GVI Forex john 13:13 GMT October 30, 2014 -
GDP data growth being dismissed as driven by government spending. I believe there are national elections in a week???

the Forever WAR helped a lot

defense spending


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)




ALERT
=87 vs. +85 exp vs. +94 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer


BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 14:42 GMT 10/30/2014
Gold and Silver got the traditional post FMOC wacking today.
A big smack across the face of any who Doubt the Wisdom of the Committee.

GVI Forex Blog 14:35 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
October 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 31. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- CPI, Bank of Japan, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP (CPI), Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Mich Survey

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 31, 2014


STAWKS
dc CB 14:34 GMT 10/30/2014


Wrong chart ....here's Visa now

STAWKS
dc CB 14:32 GMT 10/30/2014


fyi
Less than half of the DJIA stocks are Up today and none of them by more than 30 cents.

The "gain" of 90+ pts is all due to Visa. which is up over 17 pts. Just because of the way the Dow is calculated. But for all intents and Cheering purposes STAWKS ARE UP.

BREAKING NEWS
SaaR KaL 14:26 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Silver Heading to 18.00

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:19 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile


10-yr is backing up some this am
yields down -> usd down

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile


October 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 31. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- CPI, Bank of Japan, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP (CPI), Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Mich Survey
  • Far East: JP- CPI, Bank of Japan
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP (CPI), Unemployment
  • North America: CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Mich Survey, COT Report



BREAKING NEWS
london red 14:16 GMT 10/30/2014
Miami, yields and dollar dont always move together, relative spreads also arent always leading drivers. its just one of many variables. today yields arent helping the dollar.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-On
Livingston nh 14:02 GMT 10/30/2014
If the generally unloved 7 yr auction gets the same reaction as yesterday's 5 yr we may see more action into the close --- the 2 yr is unfazed so far

Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 14:02 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
NDX droping
watch out

CPI
Paris ib 14:02 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
PAR - I think you need to take a slightly longer term perspective. Of the 8 trillion of U.S. Federal Government debt in the public hands 5 trillion is held by foreign investors. The duration of that debt is very short, probably less than 3 years. The 3 year bond yield from January 2011 to mid 2013 around 0.3% to 0.5%. It is now at 0.90% and the outlook is for further rises. The cost for the FED of rolling existing debt just got higher. I'm not sure that the U.S. economy can coast along with higher short to medium term interest rates.

Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 14:00 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD he bad
IMO Buy at will now for 1.2780

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-On
GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.289 -3.0bp

CPI
PAR 13:54 GMT 10/30/2014
Dollar lower as US yields drop . Stocks higher as US yields drop .Yellen happy as US yields drop .

Where's Ginko?
Paris ib 13:53 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Good for you Ginko. Well done !!

CPI
Mtl JP 13:48 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
from historical record:

“In the exit process, allowing assets to roll off would be sufficient,” Bernanke

For the one with exclusive power not only to print but also make up rules and legislation, it can easily put up a "not for sale" sign on its "assets:.

CPI
Livingston nh 13:46 GMT 10/30/2014
The bulk of the Fed holdings is Treasury paper which to the Fed is the equivalent of money - it can hold to maturity (no margin calls for the FED) and collect whatever interest until then -- The mythical Soc Sec Trust Fund and Fed control most of the US debt (excl. less than 2yr maturities)

CPI
PAR 13:40 GMT 10/30/2014
FED needs low rates to protect its own $ 4.5 trillion bond portfolio . Yellen success was bringing long US rates down from 3% to 2% , creating a paper profit for the FED .

She will not allow rates to go up and see losses on its
$ 4.5 trillion bond portfolio . 1% on 4.5 trillion is a huge amount .

BREAKING NEWS
Miami JN 13:34 GMT 10/30/2014
Red, can the dollar move higher if bond yields do not move higher?

CPI
gc sf 13:33 GMT 10/30/2014
Problem is that it kills full time jobs and encourages part-time.

Jay - I can't open your chart - but 1.2614 is Bollinger Mid.

US GDP > 0 .. shows an actual Pulse
Europe is still a race to the bottom.

FED seems way too concerned with the level of the Stock Market for my liking -- and who these days is an actual end holder besides the Fed

Russia - nope, China -100 billion, Japan nope more interested in pumping up their Stock Market

it is never an issue getting into these trades - but it has been shown that getting out can be a real killer .. whether it happens again is yet to be seen I suppose.

see what it looks like on Asian Open.


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