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5/21/15 20:08
Target   3-Mo
2.25 Aust 2.96
0.10 Japan 0.12
0.50 U.K. 0.56
0.05 E-Z 0.06
-0.75 Switz 0.01
0.75 Cda 1.17
0.25 U.S. 0.23
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 2.02 0
Japan 0.00 0
U.K. 0.55 0
E-Z -0.22 -1
Switz -0.85 -2
Cda 0.68 -1
U.S. 0.58 -1
   
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 2.95 -1
Japan 0.41 2
U.K. 1.97 -1
E-Z 0.64 1
Switz 0.03 4
Cda 1.77 -4
U.S. 2.19 -7

Market Tracker

 


 


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22/05/15 17:00 A US Early Close con: n/a pre: n/a
FOREX FORUM
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LOOKS LIKE
HK RF@ 15:50 GMT 05/22/2015


USD will jerk up 0.5%, for whatever reason, before a decline.

Wolf sightings
Livingston nh 15:40 GMT 05/22/2015
WSJ
"Major insurers in some states are proposing hefty rate boosts for plans sold under the federal health law, setting the stage for an intense debate this summer over the law’s impact.

In New Mexico, market leader Health Care Service Corp. is asking for an average jump of 51.6% in premiums for 2016. The biggest insurer in Tennessee, BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, has requested an average 36.3% increase. In Maryland, market leader CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield wants to raise rates 30.4% across its products. Moda Health, the largest insurer on the Oregon health exchange, seeks an average boost of around 25%.

All of them cite high medical costs incurred by people newly enrolled under the Affordable Care Act."

Seasonally adjust this

UPCOMING NEWS
Livingston nh 15:24 GMT 05/22/2015
If you check the transcripts so far available but covering the early Bernanke Crisis policies most of the Fed members were expressing concern about the Inflationary impact of the moneyflow -- despite Ben's public TV assurance that this wouldn't be a problem he expressed concern in the meetings - concerns started to diminish and the few who continued to comment were eventually sidelined // so here we are - this big balance sheet and no inflation pressures -- so the Fed thinx "no problem" -the WOLF didn't show up, ergo, there is no WOLF

UPCOMING NEWS
Mtl JP 15:24 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
thematically speaking:
ECB is dovish
BoJ is dovish
BoE is confused
RBA is confused and dovish leaning
BoC is pretending to be happy w/status quo
FED is hawkish but manifestly scared if not outright cowardly.
and it is probably scared that players will start to see it cowardly and start fighting.

I would like to see a discussion of FED's "policy normalization".

From my old textbooks a policy is "normalized" when interest rate about equals GDP growth rate.

UPCOMING NEWS
Brisbane Flip 15:12 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
John this has been the most timid FOMC on record and this unprecedented dipless orderly rally has shown that way to much "respect" has been shown to the market in fear of any sense of balance.
Seriously the market is on all time highs. If she says anything that makes the equity market wobble at this point (after their inaction has encouraged its rally of 15-25% every 12 months without a meangful correction since the GFC 7 years ago) it is hardly a problem.

The central bankers have gone so far in protecting the speculative financial market community they have painted themselves into a corner. This use the word transparency but they say nothing and give no guidance whatsoever. How can a central bank with the mountain of modelling and analytical firepower of the Fed sit back and suggest they make monetary policy decisions on the back of rear window statistical guesses (and not very good ones by the admission of the BEA the past few days). The Fed said that ZIRP and QEvwas to repair the banking system and transmission system of the financial economy. Surely seven years later and the biggest Stockmarket rally on record suggests this is redundant.
By failing to normalise SEVEN YEARS AFTER THE GFC the FOMC have effectively forced retiring baby boomers to remain fully invested in the riskiest overpriced markets (in search of yield that has been eradicated by the Fed ZIRP and QE obsessions) when conservativity is the norm at this maturation stage.

UPCOMING NEWS
Livingston nh 15:04 GMT 05/22/2015
The Fed doesn't believe in inflation anymore - part of the April discussion was about "new normal" levels of interest rates and inflation // there has been a spate of silly debate among various econ types (I banged my drum about this the other day) in the news about esoteric econ concepts which is always a bad sign because it marks confusion

The classic problem for Yellen and her group is the NAIRU myth - tying labor and inflation is like most econ concepts, it's right "SOMETIMES"

You can never KNOW the market reaction but this FED wants certainty -- doing nothing for too long can get you burned alive

UPCOMING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:59 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
For those who must play, following the tape and sidelining FED's bs is probably the better way to fly

UPCOMING NEWS
london red 14:37 GMT 05/22/2015
its possible she looked at the cpi before preparing her remarks but i doubt it. these remarks will have been prepared much earlier than today although if she wanted to cause a panic i guess she could mention something but theres less than 1% chance of that going on past performance.

UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:34 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Chatter Yellen might test the waters with some hawkish talk to continue to prepare the markets for an eventual "normalization" of policy.

As I said before, shocking a thin pre-holiday market would be very dumb, imho.

UPCOMING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:27 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Yellen's drivel is likely to be her smoke signals of what she thinks about economic outlook for the US. She may obliquely do that via some opinion explaining why the Consumer is not spending and why it is or not really so.

Probably an attempt at shaping market view about her plans for raising int rate without freaking out bond market.

eurusd
Tallinn viies 14:00 GMT 05/22/2015
couldnt resist.
bought euros at 1,1025. stop at 1,0995

Probably EU economy not that good!
HK RF@ 13:58 GMT 05/22/2015

The Eiffel Tower in Paris has been closed to the public as staff stage a walk-out to protest against a surge in pickpocketing gangs in its area.

Workers say the gangs are increasingly threatening them with assault or abuse.

The company managing the major tourist attraction said it was working with police to guarantee the security of staff and the public, but "regrets that visitors... are being punished".

The 126-year-old iron lattice tower has become a glittering symbol of Paris

Pickpockets force Paris Eiffel Tower staff walk-out


Amazed me!
HK RF@ 13:55 GMT 05/22/2015


Looks like gold saw the low of the day.

But never be sure.

UPCOMING NEWS
london red 13:49 GMT 05/22/2015
euro. should get at least an intrahour bounce from 10998 fib (so far missed by 3 pips so may be revisited) but shouldnt move abv 11050/62. should be plenty of willing sellers there looking for lower. if the fib gets done there is another at 10965 to go for, 50% off the recent run up from 105 to 114.

Amazed me!
HK RF@ 13:47 GMT 05/22/2015

Poor demand for gold from India, and China all are into the stock market, as mention on one article in daily FX and big exit from gold funds(BBC).

And gold keeps well above 1200.

UPCOMING NEWS
london red 13:42 GMT 05/22/2015
2 yards euro at 110 at todays cut

Mind not Yellen.
HK RF@ 13:35 GMT 05/22/2015

The Tech. are in favor of USD/JPY rising to 122.20.

Above that,,, will take some consolidation and days to pass.


UPCOMING NEWS
london red 13:31 GMT 05/22/2015
ok thx

UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Re: Yellen, I have to go with JP. No one seems to be saying. Q&A is often carefully screened these days to prevent surprises.

UPCOMING NEWS
Mtl JP 13:27 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
just blather no q&a

UPCOMING NEWS
london red 13:26 GMT 05/22/2015
john you usually are clued up on this, any idea if a q&a for yellen or just a prepared text?

No surprise indeed:)
london red 13:22 GMT 05/22/2015
euro. now that its busted, the 50/62 lvl should hold off any rebound attempts otherwise a loss of momentum occurs. while below can still work its way to 10998. if seen before yellen id certainly cover there as nxt week we should see a test of 11050/62 unless yellen really pushes the boat out but its not something youd expect until it actually happens.

UPCOMING NEWS
Mtl JP 13:20 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
john 10:18 re Does anyone at the Fed have a brain? She should speak on the economy when EVERYONE is closed or when everyone is open. If she has any sense, she will say nothing!
-
Frankly I do not see why you have a problem with it. The FED's calendar gives enough heads-up notice about public speeches that anyone to whom FED spouting may matter can take note and deliberately decide IF they will knock off early or stick around for it.


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:57 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Canada: Retail Sales stronger than expected.
Canada Charts


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI softer than expected.


No surprise indeed:)
Singapore SGFXTrader 12:49 GMT 05/22/2015
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Good call RF on the Eurusd dip. =)

No surprise indeed:)
HK RF@ 12:47 GMT 05/22/2015


eurusd
HK RF@ 10:29 GMT 05/22/2015


EUR/USD back to 1.1070 should not be a surprise.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
U.S. April CPI in line. Market focus on +0.30% increase in core CPI.

U.S. Data Charts


BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:44 GMT 05/22/2015
blip should be limited to 11118/24 with 100dma unlikely to feature unless mkt flipping

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:42 GMT 05/22/2015
11084 nxt then biggie 11062/50. will be hampered under there to fig as plenty of prev tops/bottoms but likely to reach 10998 on breach of 11062 as they will be in full chase mode.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices April 2015
Canada Data Charts





NEWS ALERT
Bnk of Canada Core
yy: +2.30% vs. 2.40% exp. vs. +2.40% prev.
Headline
mm: -0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.
yy: +0.80% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

WOMEN RULE!!!!!!!!
HK RF@ 12:37 GMT 05/22/2015

FromZH: The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.5 percent, its largest increase since September 2008.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT 05/22/2015
U.S. Consumer Price Index April 2015
U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
Headline:
m/m: +0.10% % vs. +0.10% exp. v +0.20% pre
y/y: -0.20% vs. -0.20% exp. v -0.10% pre
Core:
y/y: +1.80% vs. +1.70% exp. v +1.80% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer



GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT 05/22/2015  - 
My Profile
Canada: Retail Sales March 2015
Canada Charts





NEWS ALERT
Headline: +0.70%vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +1.70% prev.
X-Autos: +0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.


RELEASE: Canadian Retail Sales



TTN: Live News Special Offer

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:32 GMT 05/22/2015
large beat, core accelerates as well. buy dollar dips until yellen. hourly trendline at 11095. might bounce but should be selling blips anyway.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:18 GMT 05/22/2015
looking thru notes see kuroda carney and draghi (again) set to speak from 13:30gmt onwards, thats before yellen is up at 17:30gmt

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:14 GMT 05/22/2015
option ny cut. about a yard at both 111 and 112 euro, a biggie 2 and a half yards 120 yen. daily options showing about half a fig in both euro and cable so not much in the price for today which might be expected given long weekend. does mean if anything out of ordinary mkt will chase, today cpi and maybe yellen the 2 standouts.

Is CFD Forex same as Margin Forex??
london red 11:53 GMT 05/22/2015
out of work, unemployed, jobseeker...all same difference. same for forex. in theory minor diff come with spreadbet v cfd where in certain jurisdictions a spreadbet is tax free. but then doing something regularly makes it then taxable.
diffs will be where firms charge you/pay you interest on overnight positions. but at end of day none of this will help/hinder too much as long as you are right more than wrong.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:41 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD slips on this:

07:40 (GR) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble reportedly discussed the option of a parallel currency for Greece - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Is CFD Forex same as Margin Forex??
KL KL 11:30 GMT 05/22/2015
Just wondering if any of you can Enlighten me on the difference between CFD Forex and Margin Forex.?? Is there a difference?? As far as I am concern they are the same unless any of you can tell me the difference and what the advantages or disadvantage of each.

Are all Forex brokers CFD Forex provider or Margin Forex provider or some other hybrid?? Thanks in advance for all your response...!! GL GT..... no trading today....watching grass grow or a zombie market day...LOL

eurusd
Singapore SGFXTrader 10:59 GMT 05/22/2015


Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

The hourly chart for Eurusd and Eurjpy are showing uptrend, trading above the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day MA. See attached chart

If Eur manage to close this week above 1.12 level, we should see a higher Eur next week.

This is provided that there is positive note from the Germany-France and Greek discussion.

eurusd
HK RF@ 10:29 GMT 05/22/2015


EUR/USD back to 1.1070 should not be a surprise.

The big move of "TheOne" is coming?(better late than never:)

UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 10:18 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
It seems the Yellen speech has been timed to maximize the volatility it will generate in the markets. Conditions are guaranteed to be especially thin. Does anyone at the Fed have a brain?

She should speak on the economy when EVERYONE is closed or when everyone is open. If she has any sense, she will say nothing!

eurusd
Tallinn viies 10:14 GMT 05/22/2015
closed long euro at 1,1205.
that is it for this week.

Eurusd
london red 10:12 GMT 05/22/2015
eurgbp. daily trendline (broken) at 7169. pivot on day for this pair.

Eurusd
Maribor 10:09 GMT 05/22/2015
Very weak DAX behaviour on local lower boundary...and day is long to go...I wonder if we can see 1.14 today on EUR.

UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 10:08 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
Speech - Chair Janet L. Yellen
U.S. Economic Outlook
At the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, Providence, Rhode Island
1:00 p.m. ET

Friday's Trading Thread
london red 09:58 GMT 05/22/2015
yes headline will be dragged lower by falling gas but core expected to continue gaining 0.2%. april should be low for the year as far as headline rate is concerned.

Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:50 GMT 05/22/2015  - My Profile
I read that US gas prices fell in April so the CPI impact from rising prices will be felt in May



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