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04/05/15 14:00 A US Factory Orders con: 2.10% pre: 0.20%
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GVI Forex john 09:55 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
GBPUSD spot 1.5125
BIAS lower (20d avg 1.4986 50d 1.5017)
R1 1.5337 (63%)
PIVOT 1.5221 (HOD 1.5175)
S1 1.5045 (63% LOD 1.5126)

It looks like the markets finally ar focused on the U.K. election on Thursday and are pricing the GBP defensively.

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GVI Forex john 09:47 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD spot 1.1141
BIAS: Up (20-day 1.0828, 50-day 1.0876)

R1 1.1276 (63% boundary HOD 1.1224)
PIVOT 1.1225
S1 1.1161 (63%)
S2 1.1110 (83% LOD 1.1136)

Looking for direction early in the new week. No clear bias at the moment.

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GVI Forex john 09:33 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

AceTrader May 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:11 GMT 05/04/2015
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 May 2015 08:21GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable tracked euro's intra-day move closely as despite staging a bounce to 1.5175 shortly after European open, renewed broad-based rebound in the greenback knocked price down to 1.5125. However, cross-buying in sterling vs euro ltd intra-day weakness there so far n cable recovered to 1.5153.

As mentioned in previous update, offers from various accounts are located at 1.5170-80 and more at 1.5195/00 and 1.5220-30 with mixture of offers and stops located at 1.5240-50.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5125/20 and then 1.5115/10 with demand from real money accounts reported at 1.5100 and further out at 1.5050.

GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile

GVI Forex john 08:18 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
EARLIER: Swiss PMI misses.

GVI Forex john 08:16 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
Swiss PMI April 2015

Earlier Data News

47.9 vs. 49.4 vs. 47.9 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 08:12 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMIs. Mixed revisions to data.


GVI Forex john 08:10 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile

Earlier: HSBC final PMI weaker from flash estimate...

GVI Forex john 08:08 GMT 05/04/2015  - 
My Profile
April China final HSBC PMI

Earlier News Data

HSBC: 48.2 vs. 49.4 exp. vs. 49.2 flash

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GVI Forex john 08:01 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
Mixed EZ final PMI.

GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
Final MFG PMI April 2015


52.0 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 51.9 (flash)
48.0 vs. 48.4 exp. vs. 48.4 (flash)
52.1 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 51.9 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

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EURUSD this 1.1250
SaaR KaL 07:53 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
eurgbp should show signs of sell

EURUSD this 1.1250
SaaR KaL 07:32 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
euraud shorts here today
tgt 1.36

EURUSD this 1.1250
london red 07:23 GMT 05/04/2015
tgt the supps first worry about buying later

EURUSD this 1.1250
SaaR KaL 07:16 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
I think I will wait till 1.09 to start buying EURUSD

Most into AUDUSD Long from 0.7750 area to .80+
and cable Longs 1.5150 to 1.5100
tgt 1.56

EURUSD this 1.1250
london red 06:47 GMT 05/04/2015
euro. sup at 11114/24 and 11062/76. as low as it should go pre nfp.

EURUSD this 1.1250
SaaR KaL 06:25 GMT 05/04/2015  - My Profile
IMO still a buy below for the week ahead range
1.1442 1.1032

gold seems a major sell

RBA's news is three months old
Sydney ACC 04:50 GMT 05/04/2015
he Reserve Bank commentary industry is in a strange space this week: not only does it apparently already know what the RBA board will decide tomorrow, the reasoning behind it is three months old.

As discussed in this space on Friday, the RBA will trim the cash rate another 25 points tomorrow to a record low of 2 per cent, according to the authoritative article by colleague Peter Martin on Thursday.

The reason for the cut is older. It was effectively spelt out in the bank's February statement on monetary policy, in which the bank tabled its expectation that Australia's economic growth would remain subpar this year despite the February rate cut and assuming another.

AceTrader May 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:50 GMT 05/04/2015

Update Time: 04 May 2015 01:15 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1195
Despite euro's resumption of erratic upmove from March's 12-year trough at 1.0457 to a fresh 2-month peak at 1.1290 in Friday's New York morning, subsequent intra-day sell off to 1.1175 signals a temporary top has been made and 1-2 days of consolidation would be seen with mild downside bias.
However, reckon support at 1.1072 would hold and bring rebound later.

On the upside, above 1.1290 would extend aforesaid rise to retrace long-term downtrend has resumed and yield further gain to 1.1340/50.

SIC probe into $A jumps ahead of RBA decisions points to algorithms, not misconduct
Sydney ACC 01:08 GMT 05/04/2015
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has revealed preliminary findings of its investigation into alarming moves in the dollar in the moments before the past three interest rate announcements that point to an amplified impact of machine trading, rather than foul play.

On Monday, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission provided an update on its investigation into sharp movements in the Australian dollar in the seconds before the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisions for February, March and April 2015.

tokyo ginko 00:14 GMT 05/04/2015
Entry: Target: Stop:

long aud/usd @ 0.7817 here for range trade

Maybe he shudn'ta taken those jobs
dc CB 23:27 GMT 05/03/2015
Citadel then Pimco...tooooo much for the WSJ???

The mainstream is beginning to sound a lot like some fringe blog... A week after the world's largest sovereign wealth fund unleashed a tirade against high-frequency trading and monetary policy distortions, The Wall Street Journal has penned an Op-Ed ramping up its war against Bernanke (and The Fed). What next? Cats living with dogs, mass hysteria, the dead rising from the grave?

Bernanke threw the first punch... and it landed. Now The Wall Street Journal counters with a colossal combination...

WSJ Slams Bernanke's Rambling Blog Post: "Stop Blaming Everyone" For Your Mistakes

KL KL 22:10 GMT 05/03/2015
happy to cover EURSUD short 1.1190 here as USD Bulls are coming back.....then above 1.1220...I turn Bear again....when posters are still trying to digest the rational of RBA not dropping rates tomorrow....waiting to long AUDUSD more rush for all kinds of surprise in this Sham ponzi world of Forex......whya should rates be dropped in Australia?? Perhaps the hidden agenda to make property rise like SUPER-Bubble and then CRASH like a Tower of babel.....LOL..and citizen Australia suddenly realised that in this VAST land houses should be as cheap as stupid Aussie have been duped into the property ponzi ... like in Hong Kong, USA, England....and everywhere... No one knows when a bubble pops.....not enough pain stories out there in 2009-2010.

so far deployed 1/15 of fire power to long was a bit high .788...understandable ninja is always early a fair wait for .781 then under .78 relentless long.......keeping a few shorts of the audusd 4 days ago for memories and trading against myself again...LOL

Reserve Bank must not get into the habit of leaking interest rate decisions
Syd 21:46 GMT 05/03/2015
Fairfax colleague Peter Martin moved the markets sharply on Thursday evening with the publication of his story that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate by 25 points on Tuesday.

lets see !!

Importantly, the tone of the article wasn't: "I think that the RBA will cut." It was: "The RBA will cut."

Reserve Bank to cut interest rates in May in face of weak economy
Syd 21:45 GMT 05/03/2015
The Australian dollar touched US80 on Thursday, a level the Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has previously said was well above its fundamental value.


GVI Forex john 20:16 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile

May 3, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 4, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

  • Far East: CN- PMI JP- Holiday
  • Europe: GB- Holiday, EZ/CH- PMI
  • North America: US- Factory Orders

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 20:05 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile

USD & EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Chart icon stores in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

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GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile
Global-View Economic Chart Directory

Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: Smotthed moving averages turning soft. US and CAD turning down. AUD and China tend follow one another with Australia dependant on demand for exports from China.

GVI Forex john 18:42 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
GB Holiday
JP Holiday
1:45 CN HSBC final PMI Latest view on economy
7:30 CH PMI Latest view on economy
7:50 FR MKT PMI fastest view on economy
7:55 DE final MFG PMI Latest view on economy
7:58 EZ MKT PMI Latest view on economy
14:00 US Factory Orders future production
GB Holiday
JP Holiday Latest view on economy
1:30 AU Trade A$bln
4:30 AU Australia Reserve Bank 25bp cut to 2.00% seen
8:28 GB Construct PMI Latest view on economy
12:30 CA Trade C$bn external Ac cunts
12:30 US Trade
13:45 US final MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy
14:00 US ISM SVC PMI Latest view on economy
JP Holiday Latest view on economy
1:30 AU Retail Sales domestic demand
7:50 FR SVC PMI fastest view on economy
7:55 DE final SVC PMI Latest view on economy
7:58 EZ SVC PMI Latest view on economy
8:28 GB SC PMI Latest view on economy
12:15 US ADP job's NFP Predictor?
12:30 US Productivity Key to growth
14:00 CA Ivey PMI Latest view on economy
15:00 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
GB Elections
1:30 AU Unemployment Rate jobs data critical
1:30 AU Employment jobs data critical
12:30 US Weekly Jobless weekly jobs data
2:00 CN Trade external Ac cunts
7:15 CH CPI mm
8:30 GB Visible Trade external accounts
8:30 GB Trade- Non-EU external accounts
12:30 CA Payrolls jobs data critical
12:30 US Payrolls Key Jobs data
23:50 JP BOJ Minutes
1:30 CN CPI PBOC Target

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

Japan Holidays This Week. U.K. Shut Monday. Markets in Transition
GVI Forex Blog 18:02 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: CN- PMI JP/GB- Holiday, EZ/CH- PMI, US- Factory Orders

Japan Holidays This Week. U.K. Shut Monday. Markets in Transition

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GVI Forex john 17:23 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile
Chart Directory
Global-View Economic Chart Directory

Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART:
Latest Manufacturing PMI. Relative economic strengths are converging at a slow level of expansion. The U.S., U.K., and Japan are running out of steam Also the Eurozone may have started to see its rebound to slow. Its hard to identify a winner?

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 14:38 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile
JPY positions just about al squared up....

Click on chart for JPY COT Details

Looking for missing information
Haifa a 13:32 GMT 05/03/2015  - My Profile
How much money do you plan to lose?!

Looking for missing information
Madrid 10:13 GMT 05/03/2015
Hi again,

Is there a place like that or there isn't anyone interested in telling me? :D

Dollar Longs Stopped Out: Week Ahead
Sydney ACC 22:42 GMT 05/02/2015
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer:

Says U.S. employment data is more reliable than output (GDP) data, which is subject to wide revisions
"I have a firm belief that the employment data are significantly better than the output data. You do see huge revisions in the GDP data from time to time"
"I think there is a significantly positive probability that GDP data may not be accurate"
Also ... 'We didn't plan the depreciation of the dollar but that is what is happening.'' He later clarified through a Fed spokeswoman that he had meant to say "appreciation" in reference to the U.S. currency
via Bloomberg

Fischer answering audience questions a month ago after a speech at an Atlanta Federal Reserve conference in Georgia

Dollar Longs Stopped Out: Week Ahead
Livingston nh 21:38 GMT 05/02/2015
Only a year ago (before the dollar rallied) the talk was about the pause in the Taper (never happened 'cause it couldn't happen) - now the talk is GDP will put the Fed on hold -- Janet may pull a Ben (sept 2013) out of the hat in June but it won't be based on a spurious interpretation of GDP // more and more folks are starting to see and/or suggest that Fed policy is INHIBITING growth - the 2% rate of inflation got pulled out of the air (see the Transcripts) and the NAIRU is so contextual that it borders on mythical

The Fire is out; the Emergency is long over BUT the Fed is too scared to move -- when that Fed Balance Sheet starts to bleed into the US economy the Fed will PANIC and all the vows and promises will go up in smoke

It's NEVER different just a question of HOW BAD

Biggest Inflection Point For 2015 Happening Right Now
Syd 20:10 GMT 05/02/2015
The two biggest topics I wrote about in the first quarter of the year was to expect a correction in the USD and a trough in global economic growth this spring, both of which are occurring right now. The three main points for why I argued a significant bottom in the global economy was due this spring in my prior article are summarized below:

The long predicted top in the USD is finally in. Catalyst is a bottoming in global growth which is likely to have widespread investment implications. Foreign currencies, commodities likely beneficiaries while the bond market will be greatest casualty.

Dollar Longs Stopped Out: Week Ahead
Mtl JP 17:02 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile
john 12:07 the message they are trying to send is that they are just itching to raise rates.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 13:17 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD shorts have run down in the latest COT data. The reading was as of Tuesday's close. I'm sure more had been wound down by the end of the week but I am always surprised by how long it takes for a major reversal of positioning. In short there should be more stops to be run if the EURUSD trades higher.

Net EUR COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Dollar Longs Stopped Out: Week Ahead
GVI Forex john 12:07 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile
JP- Thanks for posting that. I find it very disturbing when these guys are spouting off their own opinions. You can't tell sometimes when they are trying to send a message to the markets.

I think this Friday's jobs data are critical. If they are considerably stronger than expected, then the May data could confirm a Fed tightening in June. If they are weak, then there will be nothing to confirm in May.

I worry that the underlying 1Q15 GDP were much weaker than expected. I don't see how the Fed could even consider tightening at this juncture unless these jokers are completely out of touch!

Dollar Longs Stopped Out: Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:59 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile
JP, US April employment comes out May 8.

Consensus is +230,000

Dollar Longs Stopped Out: Week Ahead
Mtl JP 11:29 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile
Keeping it as simple as possible:

Fed rate hike in June 'on the table,' two policymakers say - RTRS

May 1 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve could well raise interest rates as soon as June, two top U.S. central bankers said on Friday, so long as economic data strengthens as expected from a dismal first quarter. .../..

Job added:
+ 126,000 in March
+ 213,000 in April (May 15th release estimate)

Dollar Longs Stopped Out: Week Ahead
GVI Forex john 10:49 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile

by John M. Bland

Dollar Upward Momentum Gone

Even though I sent a warning last week that the USD bull trend might be over, I was not expecting it to end so abruptly in the latest week.

Most professional traders tend to focus on the dollar relationship to the EUR because it is by far the dominant trading relationship. Many who use the dollar index as their measurement of dollar strength or weakness do not realize that given its weightings it amounts to a EURUSD index...

Dollar LoNgs Stopped Out: Week Ahead

GVI Forex Blog 10:34 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile
Even though I sent a warning last week that the USD bull trend might be over, I was not expecting it to end so abruptly in the latest week

Dollar Longs Stopped Out

May Newsletter: Thoughts from the Trading Trenches
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:56 GMT 05/02/2015  - My Profile

In the May issue:

- It Seems Only a Matter of Time?

- Video: Forex Trading Outlook for May, 2015

- Join Our Beta Test - Your Trading Evaluator

May Newsletter: Thoughts from the Trading Trenches

GVI Forex john 22:26 GMT 05/01/2015  - My Profile
Late N.Y. levels

US Data
dc CB 20:16 GMT 05/01/2015
Correction that was 3:59 - 4:00 , not 3:50. a 1 min timeframe.

Eminis traded 3:55 - 4:05: 124,658 ....jamming the close

US Data
dc CB 20:01 GMT 05/01/2015
3:50 - 4:00 PM 48,128 Eminis trade.

Next Page


Dollar Longs Stopped Out -- Week Ahead

Thoughts from the Trading Trenches May 2015

Does the FOMC Meeting Matter?

Ask Your Advocate: Help! Stopped Out by a Widening Spread

Max McKegg's USDJPY Forecast


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