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AceTrader April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:17 GMT 04/25/2014
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 102.40

Update Time: 25 Apr 2014 01:44 GMT

Despite yesterday's retreat to 102.09, subsequent rebound in Asian morning suggests dollar's choppy consolidation below Wednesday's high at 102.73 is likely to continue with neutral bias. A breach of 102.73 would confirm erratic up move from April's low at 101.32 has once again resumed and extend gain to 103.06, however, loss of momentum should cap price at 103.39/40 today.

On the downside, a breach of 101.86 would indicate the recovery from 101.32 is over instead and weakness to 101.50 and 101.32 would follow.

Your Best Trade Today
Mtl JP 01:40 GMT 04/25/2014  - My Profile
You will probably need to see nukes' rockets starting to rev up or serious cyber-warfare in action (critical infrastructure like powergrids, utilities or banking transaction failures) to see market reacting. Otherwise Ukraine is like a joke heard one time too many - nobody is wasting their money on a ticket to hear it.

Start looking for a new market moving catalyst.

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:25 GMT 04/25/2014  - My Profile
By the way, there was a time when news like Ukraine would have sent USDJPY and EURJPY down sharply but this has so far not been the case.

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:23 GMT 04/25/2014  - My Profile
I suggest reading this thread - John did a great job laying out Friday's events.

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:27 GMT 04/25/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar near 1-week low vs yen on rising Ukraine tensions

* Yen shrugs off slightly smaller-than-expected Tokyo April inflation

* Euro recovers from low hit on comments by ECB's Draghi

FOREX-Dollar under pressure on rising Ukraine tension


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 22:03 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile


April 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Holiday, JP- CPI, GB- Retail Sales, US- flash Markit Mfg PMI, University of MIchigan Survey
  • Far East: AU- Holiday, JP- CPI, Unemployment.
  • Europe: GB- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- flash Markit Mfg PMI, University of MIchigan Survey, COT Report.



How to Survive When Prices Don't Move
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:52 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
An article worth reading

How to Survive When Prices Don't Move


Cross-flows
Cambridge Joe 21:22 GMT 04/24/2014
Too much for my poor brain to try to understand where things go... cross-flows.

I have usdx showing significant down side looming from the 15 min 30 min supported by the hourly, so it's not nothing.

Last time this showed was 3/ April 14... thru to 10 April.

Hmmmm...

Minority Report?
Cambridge Joe 20:47 GMT 04/24/2014
CB

“artificial neural networks”, which mimics the function of the human brain.

I did hear of such a set-up. The prime mover was a chess master at the age of six. He sold his company to a global major tech company for GBP M400. No change in operations... he still goes to work. I know people who knew him through chess.

This company has predictive algos which tell you how people will think / react / respond to circumstances / situations / stimuli.

Nice to know that The Red Queen (Resident Evil) gives a toss what we might think !

Still..... it's all about advertising, sales and managing the resources, apparently.

Gold Settled Futures?
dc CB 20:36 GMT 04/24/2014
* CME likely to launch contract in Hong Kong - sources

* Contract size expected to be 1 kg

* Rivals have been boosting Asia commodities operations

CME plans to launch physically settled Asia gold futures


Minority Report?
dc CB 20:25 GMT 04/24/2014
with the motto: “New World. New security.”

BRS Labs’ AISight is different because it doesn’t rely on a human programmer to tell it what behaviour is suspicious. It learns that all by itself.

AISight permanently learns and registers when changes in normal behavior occur, so no ongoing programing is required from human operators. In order to do this, it employs a technology known as “artificial neural networks”, which mimics the function of the human brain.

What’s more, BRS Labs’ system is extremely easy to implement even across huge, disparate networks of outdated camera equipment. The company claims that it needs maximum of only a few days for the complete hardware and software installation.

Meet AISight – The Artificial Intelligence Software Being Installed on CCTV Networks Globally


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 19:58 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
A slew of corporate earnings are due on the close shortly. they could set the stage for equities on Friday.

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Fair Point re: Ukraine

I'n not sure that anyone has any serious questions about how that situation will eventually play out. The real question is what will happen next after Ukraine.

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:51 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:46 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
I have a comment- great update and lays out a Friday roadmap although I would add that Ukraine risk should keep the market cautious and contained in ranges.

EURUSD range for this week has been less than 100 pips

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Friday

Australia: Holiday

Japan: CPI and employment data are usually are not market-moving. Higher inflation would be seen as constructive as Japan tries to work its way out of its deflationary hole. Keep in mind, the higher consumption tax will be a drag on consumption, not a sigh of increased demand.

Forex implications: Hard to figure

United Kingdom: Retail Sales data are closely watched in all major economies as a measure of the strength of the consumer.

Forex Implications:
Strong data=strong GBP
Weak data=weak GBP

U.S. Markit flash Service PMI new data series. traders follow the ISM Service PMI more closely

Final University of MIchigan Sentiment Survey. Preliminary 82.6 reading expected to be revised higher to 83.0

Forex Implications:
Strong data=strong USD
Weak data=weak USD



We are still in a market that lacks big ideas, so the correlation trades led by equities should rule the day. This will not last forever. At some point the EURUSD will either break through the ceiling put in place by the ECB or U.S. fundamentals will improve to the point where the USD will rise. What we may need is for bond yields to start to rise due to an improving economy. Higher yields due to inflation would be negative.

Thoughts, Comments, Questions??

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 18:53 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands



Draghi Disappoints. Ukraine Worry Mounts. German IFO Data Beats. Busy Friday Awaited
GVI Forex Blog 18:40 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: AU- Holiday, JP- CPI, GB- Retail Sales, US- flash Markit Mfg PMI, University of Michigan Survey

U.K. Retail Sales data due Friday are always a key release. The final April University of Michigan Survey is also released on Friday. Next week will see a FOMC decision and the critical monthly U.S. employment reports.

Draghi Disappoints. Ukraine Worry Mounts. German IFO Data Beats. Busy Friday Awaited


Oil
Cambridge Joe 18:02 GMT 04/24/2014
Appears to me that both Cable and Oil get the message for South around 19:30.... 20:00. IMO. GL

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:38 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Correlations rule but which is the leader or does it matter? :

Bond yields dip => stocks dip => USDJPY dips

Cable
Cambridge Joe 16:53 GMT 04/24/2014
Cable looks like dropping thru Asia. IMO. GL

DAX
Central Kwun 16:10 GMT 04/24/2014
DAX is finally positive again

eur/usd
eu pat 15:51 GMT 04/24/2014
closed long now at 1.3830...how many times I did not take20-80 pips profit and wait for BE...this range with this werbal intervention and Ukraine pretty ugly...

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Late in European trade, today has turned into a "risk-off" session. The EURUSD is now about steady (1.3824). Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly mixed. The prices for the peripheral bond markets are lower.

European equities are closing mixed. Far East equity markets ended mixed earlier. U.S. equities are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.70%, +2 bp.



Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:25 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
The Ukraine situation has rapidly decayed this morning as Kiev resumed its "anti-terrorist" operation in eastern Ukraine and Russia President Putin calls the moves use force against citizens that is clearly a crime and will have consequences. Russia stepped up military operations on the border and a rumor made the rounds after the open that Putin would hold an "emergency press conference"

TradeTheNews.com US Market Data: Ukraine Conflict Fears Squelch Risk Appetite


Oil
Cambridge Joe 15:23 GMT 04/24/2014
Oil 15:35. GMT correvtion.

Oil
Cambridge Joe 15:15 GMT 04/24/2014
Oil stumbling here.

Looking for softer oil 16:00 16:25 GMT......... for a few hours.

IMO. GL

Your Best Trade Today
NY JM 15:02 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
A good run like that used to be one day's range!

Your Best Trade Today
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 15:01 GMT 04/24/2014
4/8 4/11 euro run...

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:00 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD Closes

4/14 1.3820
4/15 1.3813
4/16 1.3813
4/17 1.3814
4/18 1.3818
4/21 1.3793
4/22 1.3804
4/23 1.3816
4/24 1.3819 (current bid)

Your Best Trade Today
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 14:59 GMT 04/24/2014
right..altho 4/8 - 4/11 had a good run..

everyday crisis somewhere….


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:58 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
USDJPY last 6 closes

4/16 102.28
4/17 102.45
4/18 102.38
4/21 102.60
4/22 102.61
4/23 102.44
4/24 102.22 (current bid)


Your Best Trade Today
Paris ib 14:56 GMT 04/24/2014
JM.... yes FOMC and NFP and a holiday in the middle of it all for a lot of countries on the 1st of May. Ukraine.... ugly. I'm going out for a ride. Waiting this out.

Your Best Trade Today
NY JM 14:51 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
This has not been a good time for momentum or breakout trading.

Now, into a weekend that should be looking ahead to the FOMC meeting and EZ HICP next week, it now has to worry about its back with Ukraine coming out of the background.

Your Best Trade Today
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 14:41 GMT 04/24/2014
agree..been stopped on short and small gain long recently with paramount factor the small risk of 15-20 against breakout tp.
Has been hovering around 1 hr tunnel 144/169 sma…with no convincing move to pull away…blah calling the shots so far..1 hr tunnel now 3817..
3743 my bias..but we momentum traders in tuff calls now..




European Jawboning
Paris ib 14:30 GMT 04/24/2014
The Europeans know a new economic order is being born and they don't want to wear the burden of becoming the next over-valued reserve currency. They also kind of like the current economic world order dominated by Western Industrialised countries, so they are happy to play along with the idea that the USD is the big reserve currency - even as its role as reserve currency continues to crumble. China and Russia have other ideas and another perspective. Ukraine is important. There are two options, maybe three:
1) U.S. loses face and prestige.
2) A festering conflict is sponsored in the Ukraine causing problems for everyone.
3) The festering conflict bleeds into a direct confrontation between nuclear super-powers.

In all cases I can't see China maintaining its current stock of U.S. Treasuries and that is a problem for the U.S. funding options and the economy.

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
+49 vs. +38 exp vs. +24 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Military drills
Paris ib 14:23 GMT 04/24/2014
"Abe is a tough customer. His rhetoric is heavy on "escaping the post-war regime", as in re-weaponizing Japan and not playing second fiddle militarily to Washington in Asia anymore. The Pentagon obviously has other ideas....

Beijing, predictably, sees all that for what it really is, as expressed in this Xinhua op-ed; the actions of an "anachronistic", "sclerotic" and "myopic" superpower that needs to "shake off its historical and philosophical shackles"."

If Abe is a tough customer it might be time to rethink the 'wall of money' idea which was going to see the USD/JPY make new highs. Not happening.

The bigger picture


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
ECB's Coene indicating the strong EUR is a "problem". The jawboning continues.

GVI Forex Blog 14:12 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
April 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Holiday, JP- CPI, GB- Retail Sales, US- flash Markit Mfg PMI, University of MIchigan Survey

GVI Forex Data Outlook for April 25, 2014


Military drills
Paris ib 14:10 GMT 04/24/2014
US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Nuland said: "Since the declaration of Ukrainian independence in 1991, the United States supported the Ukrainians in the development of democratic institutions...... We have invested more than 5 billion dollars to help Ukraine to achieve these and other goals."

5 billion USD, but then how much will Soros make on his 1.3 billion... S and P put ?

Victoria Nuland


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile


April 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Holiday, JP- CPI, GB- Retail Sales, US- flash Markit Mfg PMI, University of MIchigan Survey
  • Far East: AU- Holiday, JP- CPI, Unemployment.
  • Europe: GB- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- flash Markit Mfg PMI, University of MIchigan Survey, COT Report.



Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
DAX now down -100 pts It was up at one point earlier today by about 100pts!

Your Best Trade Today
Paris ib 13:59 GMT 04/24/2014
The U.S. is coming out of this as a bunch of war mongering weirdos.... the whole Ukraine debacle does not look good for the U.S. foreign policy agenda. Russia is a gas station? Really?I mean you can't have clapped out politicians going around saying stuff like that, he just looks ignorant and a little weird.

McCain


Military drills
HK RF@ 13:56 GMT 04/24/2014


WAR? The Russian army will smash them in 5 minutes.

The Ukr. will run away and fast.


Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:55 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Looks like stops run on both sides around 1.3810 - but no clue why EUR should benefit except market caught short. Looks like 1.3820 (top of the closing range) as minor resistance although day charts also show it at 1.3827-32. With that said markets being driven by a run for cover more than technicals.


Posssiblt the coming sanctions will weigh more on the Mkts.
Paris ib 13:54 GMT 04/24/2014
The Obama administration is actually trying to isolate both China and Russia because of their persistent moves away from the use of the USD as a trading currency, and the concerns this raises about the future of the USD as a reserve currency. Obama in Asia is trying to sew up a trade agreement which actually excludes China (and sell a few more weapons as well), while boosting the U.S.-Japan alliance and trying to increase tensions between Japan and China.

Before this wars were waged against any country which moved away from the use of the USD.... this time the problem is somewhat bigger, but the U.S. strategy seems the same.

Military drills
NY JM 13:53 GMT 04/24/2014  - My Profile
Zero chance of war but risk is a mini Cold War (e.g. sanctions)

This adds an element of risk heading into the weekend.


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