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FOREX FORUM
22/10/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes con: n/a pre: n/a
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HIGH YIELD
PAR 07:35 GMT 10/22/2014
Carl Icahn says high-yield 'junk' bond market in a bubble - CNBC

Oct 21 (Reuters) - Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn said on Tuesday he thinks the high-yield "junk" bond market is still in a bubble despite the asset class's recent selloff.

Morning
london red 07:31 GMT 10/22/2014
theyve done the trendline now at 02-05 depending on the timeframe (daily is 02) so its a question of high high it bounces if it can take out some res or does the rot set in earlier 23/26/29 ahead of the others
cpi is the big one and a beat would be a v big surprise. but other inflation data has missed in usa recently.

Morning
sd sf 07:21 GMT 10/22/2014
US CPI maybe enough -- anything positive would be able to keep eurusd offered ... or some off the cuff EuroLand comment should be good for 40-50 pts.

They tried to buy for 2-2.5 hours yesterday before it dropped - so seems bit more time left to see if that works out again.

eurusd
Tallinn viies 07:13 GMT 10/22/2014
1,2625/30 target today. most likely 1,2740/45 contains all upmoves. if not then 1,2785 should be max today.

Morning
london red 06:55 GMT 10/22/2014
i was looking for 47 myself. the plan was to be short well abv support in the event of a break. and in the event of a bounce id still be able to pull some profit from the short once i saw the reaction at the support. i prefer not to chase markets as stops often need to be more generous. today im still using 41 47 88/90 and 2806. on the down 2705 2695 89 86 45.
data is a bit light today in euroland and doubt boe minutes will have too much effect on the euro thru the cross but we may get more flash comments on corporate bond buying

AceTrader Oct 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Hong Kong AceTrader 06:51 GMT 10/22/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

22 Oct 2014

USD/JPY - ...... News report about Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Japanese PM Shinzo Abe said that the next sales tax hike should be delayed by a year and half, until Apr 2017, given the big risk that the tax increase would pose for the country's fragile economy.

Honda made the comments to reporters after a meeting of more than 40 ruling party lawmakers who are growing wary about the planned sales tax hike late next year.
"There's a great danger from the next sales tax hike given the current situation where positive effects of Abenomics and negative impact of April's sales tax hike are offsetting each other," he said, referring to Abe's reflationary policies.

"So I told them that the next tax hike should be postponed by a year and half until April 1, 2017" after Japan can ensure that deflation is conquered, he said.

Honda said Abe remained neutral on a sales tax decision. He added that postponing the planned tax hike won't cause a loss of market confidence in Japan's public finances, but it would rather help boost share prices because such decision would be seen supportive for the economy.

Earlier, Japan's trade data was released with both positive & negative interpretations.
Reuters reported 6.exports in September expanded at the fastest pace in 7 months by 6.9% annually due partly to yen's weakness. However, imports climbed sharply to 6.2 % (vs forecast of 3.0%) due to weak yen.
Therefore, yen's weakness works in favour of the Japanese exporters but against importers. The trade balance came to a deficit of 958.3 bln yen (8.96 bln USD) vs estimated 777.0 bln yen deficit.

Under performing exports have been one of the weak links in the Japanese economy, which is struggling to cope with an Apr hike in the sales tax to 8% fm 5%. Japan's economy shrank an annualised 7.1% in the 2nd quarter, with the tax hike causing the biggest contraction since the 2009 global financial crisis.

The economy is forecast to resume expansion in the 3rd quarter, but the pace could be very slow, which would fuel speculation that the gov't will delay a second sales tax hike to 10% scheduled for next year.

Morning
sd sf 06:27 GMT 10/22/2014
EUR seems a replay of the exact same price action as yesterday

I'm not sure EUR can go above 1.2740/50/60 - as to me feels the market is still quite long + more likely to test 1.2660-70

obviously totally data dependent so have to see how that part of it plays out.

GVI Forex Blog 04:54 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 CONSUMER PRICES (CPI) Q/Q: 0.5% (matches 5-quarter low) V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.3% (1-year low) V 2.3%E; TRIMMED MEAN Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.5%E ; Y/Y: 2.5% (1-year low) V 2.7%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA SE

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Risk-on restored as global investors leave the safety of US treasuries; Australia annual CPI slows to 1-year lows - Source TradeTheNews.com


Morning
sd sf 04:52 GMT 10/22/2014
as far as $yen goes - I think we can still see a dip down to 58-60 where it should hold for a test of 107.45

if breaks 58-60 strongly then the upside is over and the top is in.

its hard to say 100% at this point due to the fact we need to see LDN + NYK first to see what range they scout around - and where they close their sessions.

Hopefully the Europe Guys can add their thoughts when they come into the market. GT.

AUD
Provo John 02:49 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
Easy solution, just charge a PIA fee that is the same as the tariff. China wants it bad enough so they will pay it.

AUD
Sydney ACC 02:27 GMT 10/22/2014
Local analysts believe it is a tactical move by the Chinese to push the Australians to accept a free-trade agreement prior to G20 meeting in Brisbane next month.
Indonesia has a free-trade agrteement with China. Their coal shipments were exempted from the tariff.

AceTrader Oct 22: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:19 GMT 10/22/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Oct 2014 01:45GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The pair pares yesterday's gain and retreats in Tokyo morning due to intra-day broad-based pullback in the greenback following yesterday's rally together with present retreat in the Nikkei (the N225 trimmed initial 325-point gain, now at 15025, up by 221 points).

Despite extending o/n rise in NY session to 107.11 in Australia, selling interest emerged after dlr showed muted reaction on Japan's trade data, price retreated to 106.86 in Asian morning.
Looks like range trading is in store and as long as the Nikkei can hold on to intra-day gain after yesterday's broad-based rise in global stocks, buying on dips is favoured.
Bids are noted at 106.80-70 and more below with some stops below 106.50. Initial offers are tipped at 107.05/15 with stops above 107.20, more stops are touted above 107.40.

Data to be released on Wednesday include:

the release of Japan imports, exports and trade balance,
Australia inflation,
BoE minutes,
UK BoE MPC vote,
Canada retail sales,
BoC rate decision,
U.S. weekly earnings and CPI.

AUD
shanghai bc 01:47 GMT 10/22/2014

China's Iron and Coal Tarrifs are just one of the tactics to get a better bargain with monopoly suppliers..

Till 1995,China was a big exporter in Oil and Coal..Things have moved really fast in China..The demand for iron and coal is likely to be very strong for a few more decades..Cyclical ups and downs is highly unlikely to stop the mega trend in modernization in China..

eurusd
shanghai bc 01:29 GMT 10/22/2014

Red,Thanks..I have been learing from everyone here..

All the best to you..

Morning
sd sf 01:23 GMT 10/22/2014
the Nikkei is just moving a little lower

range been 15055/15150 just a few pts bounce off the low @70 now.

eurusd
shanghai bc 01:18 GMT 10/22/2014

LJ BK,Thanks..Hope you are fine..

All the best..

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:50 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
* Euro near one-week low after ECB corporate bond buy report

* U.S. housing data, tech earnings, China data help risk appetite, dent yen

FOREX-Euro on defensive after ECB bond buy report, yen slips


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex 00:39 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
MNI: AUSTRALIA Q3 ALL GROUPS CPI +2.3% Y/Y; MNI MEDIAN +2.2%

AUD
sd sf 00:20 GMT 10/22/2014
I thought they introduced coal tariffs - I'm not sure on Steel.

"BEIJING Ė China has intimated its new coal tariff may be waived on Australian imports if a free trade agreement between the two countries is struck, Treasurer Joe Hockey has said, raising the stakes further on the protracted negotiations.
In Beijing on Tuesday ahead of the APEC Finance Ministers' meetings, the treasurer raised his "surprise and disappointment" in a meeting with Chinese counterpart Lou Jiwei at China's abrupt move to reinstate tariffs of 3 per cent on metallurgical coal and 6 per cent on thermal coal. Australian coal, the country's second-largest export after iron ore, was expected to be the worst affected among the world's producers.
It was understood Mr Lou defended the tariffs, which were reintroduced this month, saying they were aimed purely at aiding struggling Chinese coal producers, and were in no way a negotiating tactic directed at the Australian free trade talks.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott hoped to sign the deal with President Xi Jinping during his visit to Australia next month for the G20 leaders' meeting."

Morning
sd sf 00:16 GMT 10/22/2014
really slow day here so far

maybe people are bit confused by the EUR drop .... not quite sure what to make of it .. and making it hard to leverage into other positions... compared to our more normal day.

anyway AUD data in 15 minutes -- see what happens there.

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:43 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

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Ebola in the USA
dc CB 23:20 GMT 10/21/2014


yeh dude, tomorrow's my first day at work. I should dial back a bit. Hey man, thanks for the Job and really really, thanks for giving me time to to chill before the Big Woop.

Feel Safe?

"White House spokesman Eric Schultz confirmed that Klain, who starts work Wednesday, would take home a paycheck, but he said the amount would only be revealed in the annual disclosure of White House staff salaries.

Klain was spotted at the White House over the weekend and has met with chief of staff Denis McDonough and other senior administration officials, Schultz said. But Klain was not part of an all-hands meeting on Saturday night and will not testify at a House Oversight Committee hearing on the Ebola crisis Wednesday.

CZAR: To defend and protect


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 22:35 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile


October 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, October 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- CPI, CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision
  • Far East: AU- CPI
  • Europe: GB- BOE Minutes
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, CPI, Weekly Crude. CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision



USDJPY
NY JM 22:13 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Nice catch up in USDJPY and good alert here to its lag

Fear?
dc CB 21:53 GMT 10/21/2014
JP

the risk is wide, due to the angle of the ramp. Everyone one of the downside targets got hit...looking at the -23% as targets.

that said, will not be looking to short for now..flat. Margin for a single Emini is over 5 grand on my platform... so those without need not apply.

see this ZH... never happened before. Command And Control. Swing it if you've got the jingle in-yo-pocket. Playhouse for Da Big Boys (dose dat use otha peoples money)

All the NYFED traders who got the job, when asked the question, "how big a risk would you take", answered: "it's not MY money...so, the point is To WIN as ordered."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Never, in the history of VIX - the so-called 'fear-index' - has this ever happened before...

The last 3 days have seen VIX drop 12.74%, 15.55%, and 13.4% today... VIX has NEVER dropped more than 10% for 3 days in a row ever

VIX Has Never Done This Before... Ever


PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 21:41 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





Fear?
Mtl JP 21:32 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
CB 21:21 it is been a breathless up-hill:
it blew N of 20ma to stop just under the 100ma at 1942.97
your target coincides with 1 StdD off the 20ma 1976.47
what odds u give it ?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 21:27 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
WEDNESDAY
01:30 AU CPI -- RBA target   
08:30 GB BOE Minutes-- key part of policy
12:30 CA Retail Sales--  key demand measure  
12:30 US CPI -- Fed targets inflation
14:00 CA BOC Rates+MPR -- policy seen steady
23:45 NZ 3Q CPI RBNZ-- targets inflation
THURSDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PM-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE MFG PMI flash-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE SVC PMI flash -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG PMI -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash SVC PMI -- universal economic survey
08:30 GB Ret Sls --key demand measures
12:30 US Initial Claims--freshest jobs data  
13:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash-- universal economic survey
FRIDAY
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US New Homes Sales-- housing measure


eurusd
Mtl JP 21:23 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
viies 21:18 I am short gbpusd for low 1.60.. target on similar to yours euro expectation.
Hope we ll be both right

Fear?
dc CB 21:21 GMT 10/21/2014
so it broke and closed above, by a tad.

since the Emini is the trade of choice for the after hours ramps---see today's charts if you doubt it---then it's worth taking note of the next target - 1969-1970.

Emini


eurusd
Tallinn viies 21:18 GMT 10/21/2014
as euro closed at the lows of the day. Im not buyer today.
trying to sell on upticks. first near 1,2780.
first downside target 1,2680. then 1,2645 and 1,2605.
all possible within next 24 hours by my logic

Fear?
Mtl JP 21:13 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile


nh 20:35 re SnP : despite valiant effort for downtrend to definitely reverse probably need to see solid priceaction above the 76% level
see chart

Fear?
Mtl JP 20:54 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
nh 5% price increase with a decrease in energy costs = bright(er) future profits. What could go wrong ?

AUD
Paris ib 20:40 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Any details on that report? Seems a little strange to me that the Chinese would announce tariffs and then drop them days later. Any further information or is it just a headline?

World steel growth


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Weekly US API DatA



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +1.200 vs. +3.0000 exp vs. +8.900 prev.
Gasoline: -0.500 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -4.000 prev.
Distillates: -0.800 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.520 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.70% vs. N/A exp vs. 88.10% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Fear?
Livingston nh 20:35 GMT 10/21/2014
waited all day for the 30 yr treasury to move above 3% and 10 above 2 1/4% - expected SPX to back off to at least 1915 // bought puts late for CPI tomorrow (sometimes you have to eat your own cooking) - there is price pressure in the service sector, e.g., even w/ fuel down --
'UPS has announced plans to match rival FedEx in implementing a 4.9% price increase for its 2015 rates in North America....

The price changes will take effect from December 29, 2014."

it's only 5% and it will be better service no doubt


Heard good things about AmazingSwing Swing Trading EA, has anyone tried it before?
Tb BT 20:33 GMT 10/21/2014
Has anyone tried this Expert before? I heard from other sites that this system is profitable. I also saw one thread saying that it pretty much gives stable profits but before I try I want some feedback if possible.

On a demo it seems correct,
here's the link:

]mql5.com/41gx


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 20:28 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Closing Levels...






Morning
sd sf 20:19 GMT 10/21/2014
Asia made good money selling $yen yesterday - so I don't think they will chase the top today .. but rather be happy to offer any rally.

what we have tended to do - is bid the morning - sell the afternoon .. so that's why I doubt it goes too much above 10.

also this ABE Govt stuff is ongoing.

EUR + GBP obviously have the market off-guard - I doubt we break the lows here -- but in Europe things could be a lot different.

Anyway we have AUD CPI .. see what happens there .. GT.

Morning
london red 20:12 GMT 10/21/2014
useful stuff sf, thanks. still holding onto my long usdjpy, tp hopefully abv 200 hour ma, cut under 77. was hoping for some 10yr slippage, its drifted to lows for session but not yet below black wed low (decs 127,24). for the yen to take off, think it needs to move below there and id say we'd test that past high in the low 126's. im not convinced we are ready to move higher as in reassert the main dollar uptrend, but long this pair seemed to make sense when risk on was the order of the afternoon.
cable. hearing some bullish positions into tomorrow. im not convinced. retail sales on thursday, again not convinced. footfall down in sept, big supermarkets again discounting further. its a tough ask although volumes are going to be healthy for sales if ultimately headlines disappoint.
euro. trendline tomorrow moves up to 2703 fib 2689 prev breakout 86. stop position is the tough one as below those levels you'd want to be selling into 2640/45 test with 2570 coming into view. and im not sure there will be much of a pullback initially if the supports go.

100% wrong. That means you too.
dc CB 20:12 GMT 10/21/2014
Bof A, Citi, etc,etc etc
were all calling it a Bubble and Advised their "gold/platinum" nudge nudge, wink wink, clients to SELL SELL SELL.

GS, two days before Wed...advised Sell the 3 year SELL SELL SELL

And NO, it's not rigged. And NO, there is no PPT. etc etc etc
_________________________________________________________

Confuze Wit Da News

"Wall Streetís main regulator on Monday stepped up his campaign to improve the ethical culture of large banks."
___________________________

yeh like the EX-Chief economist of GS, working for the NYFED, the Board of Directors of the NYFED just happen to consist of Da very Banks that Mr. Dudley is railing about (Oh yeh Da Board is gonna go along wid Da break-up) DOH

Theater - or as da hoi poli sez...thea-ater.

"We jus' eat dis stuff up" (The Editorial Board of The Times)

Regulator Tells Banks to Clean Up Bad Behavior or Face Downsizing


CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:52 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Morning
sd sf 19:47 GMT 10/21/2014
EUR - range strategies were playing that 80-30 after the top was made .. when broke 70 b/o strategies sold @68 and now they bid 16-17-18

in Asia I would expect 10-40 .. when Europe comes in all bets would be off.

GBP - range bots bidding 15-16-17 - expecting 10-40 in Asia as well .. after that all bets off.

YEN - no orders at the moment but from overnight trading - I'd imagine we will be a seller @10 .. for Asia 60-10 65-00 ... if goes under 60 then 80 is the top.

100% wrong. That means you too.
Mtl JP 19:34 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
April 22, 2014 - 100% of economists think yields will rise within six months

a survey of 67 economists this (Apri) month shows every single one of them expects the 10-year Treasury 10_YEAR yield to rise in the next six months.

The survey, which is done each month by Bloomberg, has been notably bearish for some time now, with nearly everyone expecting rising rates. In March, 97% expected rising rates. In February, 95% expected yields to climb. And in January, 97% held that expectation. Since the beginning of 2009, there have only been a handful of instances where less than 50% expected rates to rise. .../..
--
Maybe some more vertical line charts days ahead.

Fear?
london red 19:34 GMT 10/21/2014
today probably close at 45 then they can do 75, thats a tougher cookie to do without a pullback. as i said earlier us stock bull cannot be dismissed and knocks up gains lightning fast. bonds still have qe4 on their minds. as fed meeting often was a disappointment for hawks this year, think doves are going to be disappointed this time. that is, fed sticks to it usually dovish as to dat path. no more no less.

Fear?
dc CB 19:26 GMT 10/21/2014


Emini Chart

Fear?
dc CB 19:23 GMT 10/21/2014
target 1937 -38

sig break and sustain above. switched to BTFD back to the 50% line. Also reverses the Fibs, 1813 becomes the start for the Upmove

Emini


AUD
GVI Forex john 19:11 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Report China dropping coal tariffs vs. Australia following Trade agreement.
Source: TradeTheNews.com


This should be AUD positive.

USDJPY
london red 18:44 GMT 10/21/2014
JM, watching and waiting all afternoon for this one to get going. slightest of inverse shs intraday, maybe asia can pick up the ball on this one. under 60 all bets off.

eurusd
Livingston nh 18:38 GMT 10/21/2014
From the "Never believe a rumor until it's officially denied" FILE -- Rumor of Corp bond buying to be on ECB agenda

It appears a reasonable possibility

FT Alphaville:

But we recently learned, via Nordeaís Aurelija Augulyte, of an odd peculiarity within the European financial system that could justify the rumoured move, buried in a footnote of an ECB working paper that came out last April:

"Improved funding conditions for large corporations can also benefit small and medium-sized enterprises indirectly, in particular through two forms of financing within the corporate sector itself: intra-sector loans and trade credits. These represented 40% of the unconsolidated debt of non-financial corporations in the euro area (which itself amounted to Ä13 trillion in 2011), a share similar to that of bank lending."

In other words, big companies in the euro area often act like banks to smaller companies. Since actual European banks seem either unable or unwilling to boost credit to small and medium enterprises because they are insufficiently capitalised, the ECB may be gambling that non-financial corporations can fill in the gap by borrowing ultra-cheaply in the capital markets and then lending the money onward for a modest return to the real economy. (For what itís worth, Japanese conglomerates have a history of doing the same thing on a large scale, and it didnít end well.)
LINK

The link to ECB paper (PDF) is in the article


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