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01/09/14 0:00 CA Holiday con: n/a pre: n/a
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Divisions Grow as a Downturn Rocks Europe
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:45 GMT 08/30/2014  - My Profile
This is worth reading:

PARIS — Six years after being struck by economic crisis, Europe is facing a fresh downturn, with few new ideas on the table for reigniting growth and deepening political divisions over the austerity policies that many blame for worsening the malaise.

Divisions Grow as a Downturn Rocks Europe

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
dc CB 00:24 GMT 08/30/2014
GVI Forex john 18:56 GMT
For reasons I find hard to fathom, the yield on the US 10-yr is closing out the week lower. It's currently running at 2.327% -1bp

because it's one of the winning trades of the month...and a well Dressed Window will show Ownership. And Da FED "lent" out the grease to make that happen.

Today's REPO
Treasury 172.590 BILLION
(The Many DOH's of Home Simpson)

Plus the next trading comes on the 1st-ish of Sept and some of that New Money will be tagged for Bonds/Notes. Up again on Tuesday.

Friday's REPO

EUR/USD This is the top
USA ZEUS 21:36 GMT 08/29/2014

The only chart you need for 2014- updated

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 20:11 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:46 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:56 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
For reasons I find hard to fathom, the yield on the US 10-yr is closing out the week lower. It's currently running at 2.327% -1bp

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 18:52 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
O ye of little faith!

I have to admit that I was skeptical that pivot support level #2 at 1.3127 wold come into play today but we have made it down to 1.3134 according to my price feed. To my mind that is just about close enough to count if you were using it as a target for a EURUSD short. I'm not sure how much more we will see today.

What we've become...The Modern American
dc CB 18:39 GMT 08/29/2014
A loose cat closed an Anne Arundel County elementary school Friday morning.

Bob Mosier, a county schools spokesman, said a teacher at Richard Henry Lee Elementary School in Glen Burnie spotted a cat inside her classroom around 7:30 a.m. Mosier said she notified school officials and there were no students inside the school at the time of the discovery.

The cat ran off, and Mosier said animal control officials searched for it..........officials called the search off and dismissed the school’s more than 480 students at 9:45 a.m.

Officers set four traps inside the school to catch the cat, said Robin Catlett, administrator of Anne Arundel County Animal Control. Catlett said doors to the school were open when officers arrived at 8:15 a.m., so authorities are unsure if the cat is still inside the elementary school.

Officials called the cat feral or wild, but Catlett said she does not know if the cat is indeed feral because the officers did not see the animal.

Mosier said officials hope the extra-long weekend Labor Day weekend will aid them in their search for the cat.

Loose cat causes Anne Arundel elementary school to close early

GVI Forex john 18:35 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
I put this GS forecast in the same category as Robert Shiller's forecast of the housing crash. Its nice to see they have firm grip on the obvious just as Shiller did.

Somehow Shiller got the Nobel prize for his forecast. Maybe GS will get the Nobel prize for this one?

dc CB 18:23 GMT 08/29/2014
Via Goldman Sachs,

1. We are revising down our EUR/$ forecast to 1.29, 1.25 and 1.20 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.35, 1.34 and 1.30 previously).

Goldman Slashes EURUSD Forecast To 1.20

GVI Forex Blog 17:51 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
August 29, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Mpnday, September 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU, CN, JA- PMIs, CH, EZ, GB- PMIs, US/CA- Holiday

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 1, 2014

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 17:49 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

August 29, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Mpnday, September 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

  • Far East: AU, CN, JA- PMIs
  • Europe: CH, EZ, GB- PMIs
  • North America: US/CA- Holiday

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 17:40 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
00:13  JP Final PMI  PMI closely-watched indicator
01:00  CN NBS PMI PMI  closely-watched indicator
01:30  AU Mfg PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
01:45  CN HSBC final PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
07:30  CH PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
07:55  DE MFG PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
07:58  EZ MFG PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
08:28 GB MFG PMI  PMI closely-watched indicator
03:30  AU Australia Reserve Bank No rate change seen
13:30  CA RBC-Markit PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
13:45  US MKT MFG PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00  US ISM MFG PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
01:30  AU GDP Broadest growth measure
07:55  DE SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
08:28  GB SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00 CA BOC Rates No rate change seen
14:00  FRB Beige Book Same data Fed gets
14:00  US Factory Orders Measure of manufacturing
01:30  AU Retail Sales Key economic metric
01:30  AU Trade A$bln  Important for growth
04:30  JP Bank of Japan No rate change seen
11:00  GB Bank of England No rate change seen
11:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank No rate chg, other ease possible
12:15  US ADP Jobs Predictor of NFP
12:30  CA Trade Important for growth
12:30  US Initial Claims Key jobs metric
12:30  US Trade  Broadest growth measure
12:30  US Productivity 2Q14p Important for growth
13:45  US Markit SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
09:00  EZ GDP Broadest growth measure
12:30  CA Payrolls Key economic metric
12:30  US Payrolls Broadest growth measure

NY JM 17:02 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
It is as simple today as I suggested - once fixing time passed USD selling for month end dried up and dollar went higher.

Mtl JP 17:01 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
players pre-pricing the Washington orders following fools of Europe discussing further sanctions against Russia at the extraordinary Saturday 30 August summit

Haifa ac 16:54 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Perhaps, just perhaps....the trend is down?!

Central Kwun 16:36 GMT 08/29/2014
any news on EUR? keep falling

Yellen's beliefs
Mtl JP 16:09 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
The Federal Reserve can help, if it does its job effectively. We can help ensure that everyone has the opportunity to work hard and build a better life. - Yellen October 9, 2013
Woman who worked in four jobs, overcome by fumes, dies as she naps in car -

"This sounds like someone who tried desperately to work and make ends meet, and met with a tragic accident," Elizabeth police Lt. Daniel Saulnier said. New Jersey has tens of thousands of people working multiple jobs, said Carl Van Horn, director of the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University in New Brunswick.

"These are are folks who would like to work full-time but they can't find the jobs," Van Horn said. "They wind up in these circumstances in which they are exhausted. More commonly it creates just an enormous amount of stress,"
ya IF... if it (the FED) does its job effectively...

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 16:04 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
After holding into NY, Support level #1 (1.3156) was been taken out a while ago. The next level of support is 1.3127. The current LOD is 1.3142.

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 16:03 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
•ECB unlikely to start QE but could see some tweaking of policy
•US payrolls report to show labour market continues to improve
•Other central banks, including BoE, expected to leave policy unchanged


Month End flows
Mtl JP 15:46 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
had a chuckle imagining what Draghi or Kuroda must be thinking watching the Ruble hitting a record low against the US dollar on Friday dropping to 37.10

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 15:44 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
European markets saw no impact from the as expected  are August EZ HICP report. I am not expecting much from the ECB meeting next Thursday after the HICP data The EURUSD is ending soft in Europe..

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.886%  +0.60bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.360%  -1.0bp. I see a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.336%, +0.2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are ending mosstly  up. U.S. shares are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Month End flows
Mtl JP 15:32 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
I d like to see the volatility come thru eur vs yen
that draghi vs kuroda fight has been a sleeper for a long time now
just wishful thinking

Global Markets News
dc CB 15:31 GMT 08/29/2014

"US traders are largely looking past another round of solid economic data and appear to be willing to lighten up positions ahead of the long Labor day weekend."

The 10:30 AM Index Rally Train left the station right on time.

Month End flows
london red 15:31 GMT 08/29/2014
if they get thru 30/35 then its possible 13110 is seen but lower than that should be a bridge too far today.

Month End flows
Mtl JP 15:27 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
red 15:15 - tky !

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 15:22 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
IF it were so that Geopolitical developments continue to weigh on peoples' minds Gold and Brent would not be where they are

Month End flows
NY JM 15:17 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Post fixing price action working like a month end blueprint.

Month End flows
london red 15:15 GMT 08/29/2014
euro barrier at 13150. well defended all week. will trigger another bout of volatility if hit.

Month End flows
london red 15:12 GMT 08/29/2014
imp volume low set in loonie during last hour, just a fraction off 1.0809 fib. this is now marker into next week. 36/39 acts as support then 10823 before the fib.
upside res at 53/60 then 200 day ma and 1.0908.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 14:53 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
US traders are largely looking past another round of solid economic data and appear to be willing to lighten up positions ahead of the long Labor day weekend. Geopolitical developments continue to weigh on peoples' minds. Ukraine remains a sore spot as it appears we are headed toward another round of sanctions US Market Update: US traders largely unwilling to commit ahead of holiday break

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:45 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Listen to this!!

Spain...this is music!!

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:33 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
104.13 103.77

Month End flows
NY JM 14:32 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Month end flows are probably driving price action ahead of the 4 PM London fixing.

See what happens after that time,

early exits in the US ahead of the long weekend.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:30 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
cable close
1.6607 1.6550

1.3188 1.3123

just boring friday

Mtl JP 14:24 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
gbpusd chartpoints
10 day 1.6609 (still resistance)
5 day 1.6573

Somewhat unwelcome news on a Friday!
London Misha 14:21 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

Mtl JP 14:21 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

john 14:13 was that you taking a long on Cameron ?

SaaR KaL 14:17 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

Mtl JP 14:15 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
terror alert via BBC:
He urged communities and families to report anyone who is "vulnerable, a danger or escalating towards terrorism" by calling the Anti-Terrorist Hotline on 0800 789 321

probably not a good time to be in nasty fight with neighbor or ex-spouse

GVI Forex john 14:13 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Watching PM Cameron. Sounds like there is no specific threat, which leaves me wondering?

london red 14:11 GMT 08/29/2014
eurgbp 61.8 of 78x-80x at 7936. cable 10 day ma and top hourly bolli 16598. if they can crack that then the 6605 fib which market so far unable to do hourly close abv. dips have been lower off this fib but ultimately needs to break otherwise triple top threatens with neck at 6570. thru 6562 see 6537 fib in play.
this late in the day you fancy some follow thru buying if 10 day and fib taken. selleres expected c. 30-33.

Final August 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment Final U of M data outperforms expectations. Data revised up more in line with the Conference Board survey.

Final August 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

82.5 vs. 80.2 exp. vs. 79.2 preliminary

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

TTN: Live News Special Offer

August 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
london red 13:55 GMT 08/29/2014
pmi corrected last time freak print. youd fancy confidence to beat as well, given other confidence related numbers stronger. maybe we can break tight ranges after the options cut.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 13:49 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
SHort at 104.08

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 13:48 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
What is shutting down the government mean?

Perry is probabaly making money from the drug Cartels + Weapons Contract

He wants to do both here in one speech (This is really ridiculous!!)

Gov SHut Down?

August 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

64.3 vs. 56.2 exp. vs. 52.6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex 13:43 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Said to be stronger than consensus ... note subscribers get it early

GVI Forex john 13:03 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Press report the terror alert level for UK has been raised. Keep in mind we are nearing the 9/11 anniversary. Apparently due to intelligence from Syria and Iraq. Level raised from "Substantial" to "Severe". No specific threat cited.

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