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Greece Referendum: What Happens If They Vote ‘No’
Syd 05:02 GMT 07/04/2015
The following scenarios are based on conversations with officials working on how to handle the Greek crisis, along with investors and economists.
What Happens Next?
With polls showing a tight result, the only thing certain about the referendum is the timing: polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and the result may be known before midnight.
Either way, what follows are emergency negotiations, the outcome deciding which side feels it has the upper hand.

Scenario 1: “Yes” – Then a Third Bailout

Scenario 2: Greece Vote “No”

Not everyone in Greece is finding the question easy to understand.

Greek Haircut
Mtl JP 03:11 GMT 07/04/2015  - My Profile
talking of haircuts....
chinese stocks losses to date amount to approximately 2 trillion

it is still not likely that all margin has been cleaned out

Greek Haircut
Sydney ACC 01:22 GMT 07/04/2015
According FX Street the FT is carrying a report Greek banks are preparing contingency plans for a possible “bail-in” of depositors that could see deposits above €8,000 haircut by at least 30%.

Can't see it myself.

nw kw 00:18 GMT 07/04/2015
nw kw 17:32 GMT June 11, 2015
Thursday's Trading Thread: Reply
unusual open interest in gbp/aud it descended, keep I gbp

im on monthly top side still can be big move

Greek Voting
Mtl JP 23:38 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
ib I am with you about the Greek...

The Greek is oh so close to
- knocking the IMF out of business,
- collapsing the EU princes' Brussels castle before it is completed
- possibly re-writting the book on rolling debt over and over and over
- delivering a gut-ripping blow to modern bank debt front loaders

But ... there is a difference between what one wishes for at a personal level and what one judges realistic market outcome and reaction and how to juice it for max profit.

GVI Forex Blog 22:31 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile


  • Greece holds a referendum on Sunday, with polls suggesting a close result
  • UK Chancellor’s Budget statement could revise down net borrowing for 2015/16
  • FOMC minutes and a slew of Fed speakers are due
  • All eyes will be on Sunday’s Greek referendum


    Paris ib 19:19 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    FWIW This week we had ANOTHER outside week UP in EUR/AUD. That makes three since April 26th this year.

    Paris ib 19:59 GMT May 29, 2015
    EUR/AUD: Reply
    FWIW This week was the SECOND outside week UP in EUR/AUD in the past five weeks. What does that tell us? AUD to collapse? EURO to rally? Bit of both? We shall see.

    CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
    GVI Forex Blog 17:01 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

    Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

    CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 17:01 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    The Euro - without cooperation from all the European Central Banks - is just a figment of some Eurocrats' imaginations. Gotta love that. The French love affair with 'concepts' meets the real world.

    Good luck to Greece. I hope they understand that they hold all the cards. They don't have to leave the Euro. They don't have to accept extortionate terms on their illegitimate debt. They still have printing presses all they have to do is start using them.

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:56 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    That is a serious sell on the Euro until these fools in Europe (the Eurocrats) come to the table with a proposal. Far out. This strikes me as a major miscalculation.

    GVI Data Calendar for 6 July 2015
    GVI Forex Blog 16:42 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

    July 3, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 6, 2015. Trading News Calendar


    • Far East: No Major Data
    • Europe: DE- Factory Orders
    • North America: US- PMIs, CA- Ivey PMI, COT Report

    GVI Data Calendar for 6 July 2015

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:42 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    The Eurocrats have NOTHING. They are holding a dud hand. If the Greeks tire of this rubbish they just start printing Euros and tell their creditors to go whistle. The Euro would cease to exist. We would instantly be back in a multiple currency Europe.

    The Pistol Shot

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:34 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "While we don’t know what will happen if a country drops out, as cunningly the euro experiment architects didn’t build in an exit strategy, we can be fairly certain it won’t involve a small army of Eurocrats marching around, checking the letters on your banknotes and taking them off you."

    Maybe those Germans should reprint that magazine cover. How about you replace Mr. Tsipras with a picture of Mr. Schaeuble holding a pistol to his own head? Hubris I think is a Greek word. :-)

    How to really stuff things up

    GVI Forex john bland 16:34 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)  
      GR Referendum
      13:45 US final MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy
      14:00 CA Ivey PMI Latest view on economy
      14:00 US ISM SVC PMI Latest view on economy
      0:00 TUESDAY
      4:30 AU Australia Reserve Bank
      8:30 GB Ind Output production
      8:30 GB Mfg Output m production
      12:30 CA Trade C$bn
      12:30 US Trade external Accunts
      14:00 US JOLTS Survey mln top Yellen Statistic
      17:00 UST TRY 3-yr
      15:00 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
      17:00 UST TRY 10-yr
      18:00 USFRB Fed Minutes
      1:30 AU Unemployment Rate jobs data critical
      1:30 AU Employment jobs data critical
      1:30 CN CPI
      11:00 GB Bank of England
      12:30 US Weekly Jobless weekly jobs data
      17:00 UST TRY 30-yr
      8:30 GB Visible Trade external accounts
      8:30 GB Trade- Non-EU external accounts
      12:30 CA Payrolls jobs data critical

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:24 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "the Athenians who have recently tapped the ATMs, check your euros. If the serial number starts with a "Y" that means it was printed by the Bank of Greece and you should probably hang on to it because you might soon be able to sell it at a premium to a museum"

    They better come to a deal soon or this could get ugly.

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:14 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Gonna be an interesting week next week.

    Trade the Euro? Which one?

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:13 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    When you look at it it seems Greece has more options up its sleeve than Europe. So far it has just chosen not to use them. I think the Greeks should start bandying out the possibility that they do start printing if the ECB refuses to provide liquidity. I mean, why not?

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:10 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Iceland was a perfect example of ‘unorthodox’ crisis management. The country came out of the financial crisis of 2007-2008 by imposing strict cash flow controls, letting the banks go bankrupt and incarcerating bankers."

    The unorthodox solutions

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:07 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Greek Central Bank to start printing Euros without ECB authorisation, which would instantly result in a devaluation of Greek Euros that would be marked down in value against other Euros"... instant return to multiple currencies.

    Problem solved. :-))

    Check your Euros. Which denomination do you have?

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:05 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

    Endless Game of Chicken

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 16:00 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Half of Greece’s debt was created through fraud between former Greek President Papandreou and Goldman Sachs. The goal of the fraud was to conceal Greece’s debt through currency swaps, but the plan actually doubled Greece’s debt (and made a fortune for Goldman Sachs). Even more debt was added by NATO countries forcing Greece to buy expensive weapons systems they could not afford."

    Seems wild. Is it true? No idea.

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 15:58 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Greece does have the nuclear option, one that could threaten to blow the whole euro-zone apart.... Euro's in Greece are printed by the Greek central bank. Therefore Syriza... could just command the Greek Central Bank to start printing Euros without ECB authorisation, which would instantly result in a devaluation of Greek Euros that would be marked down in value against other nation Euros."

    The game of chicken just got interesting....

    The Nuclear Option

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 15:55 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Greece has the physical means to create any amount of euros it wants.... it can create euros in a few "clicks" under the cover of the opaque Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. Greece is already estimated to have created up to 96 billion euros to help its banks using the ELA.

    On the other hand, the Greek central bank is able to turn on the printing press the old-fashioned way. As per the EU constitutional texts, printing euro banknotes (and manufacturing coins) has been physically delegated to the national central banks, including the National Bank of Greece. The Mint of Greece (IETA) thus already prints euro banknotes. It has the latest state-of the art printing presses – it just has to keep running them when no one is looking."

    So.... don't pay but print?

    Printing Euros

    Paris ib 15:46 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    The level of farcical incompetence is staggering. But seriously not surprising. Once you got a 'diplome' in some places that alone is considered enough.... no matter you are an idiot with no skills. Surprising but a sorry part of the European culture.

    Livingston nh 15:37 GMT 07/03/2015
    Every w/e for the last month (and more sure as the "deadlines" were pushed back) I have been expecting capital controls BUT I also expected a flurry of legal moves w/ respect to the banking system by Greece agencies and the EU -- Why don't the Greeks print the 10 EUR notes in large quantity? Why not file to compel the ECB to provide liquidity? Why not have the banks fail and call upon the deposit insurance? Why businesses don't file against the Greece gov't, NCB AND the ECB for injunctive relief?

    Don't these people like lawyers or is the judicial system in the EU geared only towards "do gooder" human rights" action and non competitive business cases?

    Anybody that doubts that the EU is merely a Trade Zone issuing scrip with no financial or political organization should try to justify what is happening in Europe

    Paris ib 14:20 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    AUD to crack 0.7500 ??? Soonish?

    Paris ib 14:08 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Over in Australia the talk is of a recession in the 2015-2016 financial year after more than 20 years without a recession. Given the level of private debt in Australia this recession looks set to be a doozy. More downside on the AUD? You betcha.

    A First Recession

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 13:58 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Yanis Varoufakis talks to Phillip Adams.

    Radio Interview

    Greek Voting
    Paris ib 13:56 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Greece will not leave the EURO regardless of the outcome of the vote on Sunday. Why? First because they can not print Drachmas any more. Second, because that is not the position of the Government. The current Government does not want to leave the Euro, they just want better repayment terms. Third, because the Euro Group does not want Greece to leave the Euro. Fourth, because the United States does not Greece to leave the Euro and team up with Russia and/or China.

    So forget the vote. Trade on the basis that Greece will remain in the Euro, because it will.

    The EU can't force the Greeks to do anything but they have shut the Greek banks out from European liquidity, which is what they have done in the run up to the referendum. So much for the Euro Zone guarantee that all European bank accounts are covered up to 100.000 euros. Obviously that guarantee is conditional.

    Both sides have played their trump cards. Where do we go from here? No idea. Maybe a fascist take over in Greece? No, I guess they already did that.

    No Printing Drachmas

    Friday's Trading Thread
    GVI Forex john bland 12:55 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Just like clockwork, algos just ran the LOD stops at 1.1082. New LOD 1.1079.

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    GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:48 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

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    nw kw 12:33 GMT 07/03/2015
    fast xag

    nw kw 12:31 GMT 07/03/2015
    Recent Canadian data could support the Bank of Canada cutting rates at the July 15th meeting. Canadian GDP for April was negative 0.1%, oil prices resumed the longer-term bearish trend, and if we see a Greek exit or a collapse in confidence with China, we could see concerns grow for the Canadian economy to enter a recession.

    Mtl JP 12:28 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    they can print (or are close enough to printers) that it does not matter if they do get their interest / capital.

    the Q "What power do those seeking only the return of money have against a sovereign people who are disabled past the point of caring?" is all too easy to answer from their history record.

    london red 12:09 GMT 07/03/2015
    no much down to 7200/7150 for aussie. barrier at 7500 but plenty of stops below too. both aussie and kiwi can do multiple figs without bounce so be careful if bottom picking.

    nw kw 12:03 GMT 07/03/2015
    AUD/USD Fell to 6-year Low of 0.7510 on Weak Retail Sales & China Stocks

    Zurich EG 11:55 GMT 07/03/2015
    Was there any news why AUD fell out of bed today or did it follow drop in China stocks? Big move down.

    london red 11:30 GMT 07/03/2015
    on a yes vote dax likely to rally so although euro may open higher it will probably sell off as folk re apply euro hedge (sell) to new long dax positions. and since yes vote is likely to result in talks which leads to more can kicking, its a stable enough situation to use euro as funding currency again. couple that to the fact us/de spreads in particular 2yr are marching higher,its all a recipe for lower euro.
    no vote may actually see euro rally after initial 2 fig mark down since the opposite happens with the dax, folk cover shorts/long euro as they exit longs or go in short dax.
    but for sake of drawing a line and a situation where after some time everyone wins (creditors money is already lost), a parting of ways is best for greece and eu. eu is stronger without greece while the drachma will give greece a chance to let cheap tourism and manufacturing shine (long greece and short cee eg. poland or hungary (and to some extent france) should work on a 12-36 month basis in that regard)

    GVI Forex john bland 11:24 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Kaprikom- imho a yes vote in the referendum should be NEGATIVE for EURUSD as it increases the odds for a debt settlement. A resumption of the use of the EUR as a funding currency for carry trades would weigh on the currency.

    sofia kaprikorn 11:11 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    I'm not sure why people think that Yes to a Greek vote means positive for the EUR as there will be just more money needed to save the indebted country.

    USDX seems to be trending up.

    Friday's Trading Thread
    GVI Forex john bland 10:54 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

    USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

    Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
    A Simple but Effective Trading System

    AceTrader Jul 3: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
    Hong Kong AceTrader 09:54 GMT 07/03/2015
    03 Jul 2015 08:33GMT

    GBP/USD - 1.5625... Despite cable's choppy sideways move in a relatively narrow range of 1.5602-1.5623 in Asian and early European session, price jumped briefly to 1.5649 following the release of upbeat UK service PMI.

    On Friday, The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the NTC Economics Service sector activity in the U.K. rose more-than-expected last month.
    It said that U.K. Services PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 58.5, from 56.5 in the preceding month.

    At the moment, bids from various accounts are building up at 1.5610-00 and more around 1.5590 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.5570-60.
    On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.5645/50 and more around 1.5670 with stops emerging further out above 1.5700.

    Paris ib 09:49 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "when Greece defaults... there is really not much that the IMF, the ECB and the euro group central banks can do to get their money back. And therein lies the realpolitik of the situation....Greece remains a sovereign power in possession of its internal assets and resources. And unlike a private party in bankruptcy, Greece will be operating under its own rule of law.... What power do those seeking only the return of money have against a sovereign people who are disabled past the point of caring?

    Accordingly, by Tsipras having pursued this avenue, I would not be at all surprised if the creditor nations and the IMF conclude that they don't really want to discover the answer to that question and offer a more reasonable deal. They very well should."


    buy audusd
    Paris ib 09:44 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    "Post GFC we rebuilt denuded savings and reliquified banks as mining poured billions into projects and jobs, while international markets collapsed all around.

    ..the deteriorating economic circumstances of the commodities bust that we currently face have been obvious... We knew the boom was narrowly based in China. We understood the magnitude of investment. We knew the size of the supply expansion. We knew prices were going to fall a long way. We knew a capex cliff was coming. But authorities did nothing to prepare for the end point except to deliberately reinflate a housing bubble supposedly to float us blithely over the carnage...."

    The Dumbest Bubble

    Friday's Trading Thread
    GVI Forex john bland 09:07 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile

    Entry: none Target: Stop:

    Volatile trade so far today as some have been banging an illiquid market. U.S. trading holiday and Greek referendum on Sunday are keeping many on the sidelines.

    As for the Greek Referendum, many are reporting that the wording of the question on ballot is confusing.

    Latest polls show the "yes" votes in favor of austerity are still in the lead, but that the margin in favor is only just over one percentage point (44.8% vs. 43.4%). So the vote is really too close to call.

    AceTrader Jul 3: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
    Hong Kong AceTrader 09:06 GMT 07/03/2015
    Update Time: 03 Jul 201508:12 GMT

    USD/JPY - 123.10
    Dollar's retreat after rallying from Tuesday's fresh 1-month trough at 121.94 to as high as 123.75 yesterday suggests the first leg of correction has ended there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.
    However, reckon price would keep above 122.10 support and bring rebound later.

    On the upside, only a move back above 123.75 would signal decline from June's near 13-year peak at 125.86 is still being retraced and yield another corrective up move to 123.99 and then 124.40/50 next week.

    GVI Forex john bland 09:00 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    Eurozone Retail Sales May 2015

    mm: +0.20% vs +0.10% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.
    yy: +2.40% vs. +2.30% exp. vs. +2.20% (r +2.70%) prev.

    TTN: Live News Special Offer

    BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Service PMI Big Beat
    GVI Forex Blog 08:36 GMT 07/03/2015  - My Profile
    U.K. May Services PMI stronger than expected. Overal UK picture mixed. UK Charts=>

    BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Service PMI Big Beat

    Next Page


    Disappointing June U.S. Jobs Report: Week Ahead

    Forex Trading Tip: The Hard Trade is Often the Right Trade

    Why EURUSD Traded Higher Despite Greece?

    Forex Brokers Tighten Trading Rules on Greek Fears


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