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FOREX FORUM
21/11/14 13:30 A CA BOC CPI y con: 2.10% pre: 2.10%
21/11/14 13:30 A CA CPI mm con: -0.20% pre: 0.10%
21/11/14 13:30 A CA CPI yy con: 2.00% pre: 2.00%
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EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:04 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile


This daily chart puts the price action in perspective

Since 1.25 first traded wide range has been 1.2887-1.2358

Past 9 days have essentially been in a 1.24-1.26 range

Trendlines have narrowed the range to 1.2447-1.2610

1.2538 = 20 day mva

1.2550 sets the tone (currently a magnet) while within 1.25-1.26

Only above 1.2600-10 would suggest a greater risk of a retracement.

Asia
Paris ib 20:02 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
sf - I agree. The lack of follow through has been disappointing. We'll have to see how the Nikkei does on the back of this. Still we may have come into a new era. Sell the rally as opposed to buy the dip. USD/JPY down 1 big figure from the high and no new reasons to buy. The Japanese elections are nearly a month away (though no official date yet). Nothing else biggish on the horizon. I think Kuroda is done. No new tax changes, so all quiet and the market is still way long.

Asia
gc sf 19:52 GMT 11/20/2014
IB - I just thought based on the pattern yesterday if Stocks played ball we could see down to 117.10-30 area

but Stocks didn't play ball overnight and it is clawing its way back above 118.

Right now for me it is a more neutral market than it was late yesterday.

Tokyo Open / Nikkei ...... we need to see these before making an updated decision for today.

US Stocks
PAR 19:22 GMT 11/20/2014
Lower dollar and higher crude oil pushing US stocks to new record high .

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 18:37 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
why could it be fun ? because Schäuble is supposed to be there too.
Schäuble is the character who has, in the past, warned Mario to mind ECB's constitutional limits on his eagerness to fund governments
-
But I ask what banker in his right mind would not want to expand the debts outstanding book ?

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 18:05 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
ieeha .. just checked the econ calendar (14:00 A EZ Draghi - i.e. 3am NYT) and compelled to check the ecb site to see what about:
Friday, 21 November 2014
Board member: Mario Draghi
Event: Keynote speech by the President at 24th European Banking Congress “Reshaping Europe” in Frankfurt, Germany.
Time: 9 a.m. CET
Venue: Alte Oper, Opernplatz, Frankfurt
-
in no lesser place than Frankfurt. could be fun.

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:54 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
PAR if you wait just a little more than half hour, currently voting hawk Mester is going to gumplap about "forward guidance" in London

as if somehow she had a patent on crystal ball

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:45 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile


JP, I am using the 4 hour chart where the trendline is currently at 1.2591, yesterday's high 1.2600 and the 200 period mva at 1.2603 (last time above it was on Oct 29).

1.2538 = 20 day mva, which reflects the current consolidation that has tried but so far failed to turn into a retracement.

As I noted this week, EURUSD 1.2500 first traded on Oct 3 and after over a month in a half has not been able to establish below despite a low set at 1.2358.

The hope trade is for seasonal USD weakness to take over and setup a better level to go short but trading based on hope is always a long shot.


Global Markets News
PAR 17:40 GMT 11/20/2014
Phily FED not in line with other US data . Sampling error ?

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 17:32 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
on the upside euro would probably need to see action above the 50 day 1.2668 to cull some of the +/- 28 billion in COT positions

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 17:29 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
The Philly Fed's manufacturing outlook crushed expectations and delivered the highest headline figure since December 1993. Expectations of 18.5 were down slightly from last month's 20.7 reading.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Strong US Data Pull Equities Out of the Ditch


BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 17:27 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
every racehorse needs a rest at some point
eurdlr will take off either out of 1.2450 or 1.26 breakout

suggest crack open a beer or brew some tea in the meantime
-
gbpusd still in nega-bias mode, 1.56 and lower likely

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK
GVI Forex john 17:25 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
20 November--  17:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets are currently in a MIXED RISK posture Today saw stronger than expected U.S. data and first round of global PMI readings for November. Flash PMI data from the U.S., EZ, China and Japan were disappointing. U.K. Retail Sales data handily beat street expectations.
  • In the Far East, equities ended mostly lower.10-yr JGB yields fell and the Nikkei was steady. 
  • European bourses are closing mixed. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are down by about 4bps. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is down despite the U.S. data . U.S. share prices are up.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 17:23 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Yeah I think 150 EUR/JPY is doable. I just wonder if there is a target for the EUR/USD out there. I haven't heard any numbers but I'm pretty sure there must be a target of some sort.

BREAKING NEWS
Prague JIT 17:12 GMT 11/20/2014
ib: JPY target was good. But the traders took it as the lesson: Buy this pair as long as possible. On every Friday evening I am a pip-picker-fisher. Saw it and trading 160 and 76 as well. To trade it, do not look how it was. Two or three digits.... For now I see the tgt. 120 USD and 150 EUR ag. the JPY is still possible. Good round number for all. Next holiday week will be important. Above 124/126 USD/JPY is their CB in the deep trouble. 100 pips daily. We have the silly same cb here. Happy w/e gl Regards,

BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 16:31 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
JIT - with the cover of the '2% inflation target' Japan has devalued the USD/JPY nearly 50% - from 80 to the USD/JPY to today at 118 (119 this morning). No concern has been expressed by the USA about this manoeuvre and some pundits are encouraging the ECB to follow suit. A 50% devaluation and no mention of currency manipulation? In an era where inflation is "anything the statistics departments say it is".... an inflation target makes no sense. But I'm still trying to figure out what these Central Banks are gunning for.

They have currency targets. That's for sure. Originally Japan cited 100 - 110. We are way past that. Euro? What's the target there?

"Bullard effect".
PAR 16:19 GMT 11/20/2014
European markets benefitting from the "Draghi Effect " .

"Bullard effect".
dc CB 16:18 GMT 11/20/2014
According to the NY Times, which broke the story, this is what happened:

From his desk in Lower Manhattan, a banker at Goldman Sachs thumbed through confidential documents — courtesy of a source inside the United States government.

The Latest Scandal: Goldman, Fed Employees Busted For Illegally Sharing Confidential Information


BREAKING NEWS
Prague JIT 16:17 GMT 11/20/2014
Paris / ib.: Trying to answer all your questions shortly: Is the 2% dogma target ok for all old-good-economies? Why not 1,2? The motor settled to this? Why not 0,5? Everything above zero works. Below.....

"Bullard effect".
dc CB 16:15 GMT 11/20/2014
As the chart below shows, of the 165.3 point jump in the S&P, EPS growth has accounted for 1.24 of those S&P points, or about 0.7%. The rest, or 164 points is due to nothing less than Multiple expansion

Here Is The Reason For The Market's Vertical Rebound From The October Lows


BREAKING NEWS
PAR 16:10 GMT 11/20/2014
Rates need to stay at zero or close to zero to keep the cost of financing the budget deficits down , to keep the balance sheets of the central banks looking good and to keep the stock markets pushing higher helping the 1% and hoping for some trickle down effects.

I see no other reasons why in an economy growing at +3% like the USA ,rates should be at zero

GVI Forex Blog 16:07 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
November 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, November 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 21, 2014


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile


November 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, November 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi
  • North America: CA- CPI, US- COT



BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:31 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-17 vs. -10 exp vs. +40 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

eurusd
Tallinn viies 15:22 GMT 11/20/2014
seems that 1,2505/10 impossible to break today.
target 1,2610 before NYC close

BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 15:15 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Why not March? Is there a recovery? Zero rates have to be an anomaly historically and only justified by an emergency. If there is a recovery in the States why can't rates move up from zero. We're not talking a huge move. 10 basis points or so. Somebody has to explain to me why that is not possible or justified because I just don't get it.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:15 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Odds on an early rate hike remain very low. Fed focus is on new job creation, average earnings and inflation. Government said today that price falls due to falling oil prices ore in the pipeline.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:13 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Soon is a relative term (June 2015?)

Tepid reaction to the data so far.

BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 15:10 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
So odds on for a rate hike soon?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Data were better than expected.


BREAKING NEWS
PAR 15:09 GMT 11/20/2014
US rates stay low even after somewhat better than expected US economic data .

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:05 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Strong U.S. data across the board USD higher.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Consumer Confidence preliminary November 2014





ALERT
-11.6 vs. -10.8 vs. -11.1 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Leading Indicators October 2014
U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.90% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.80% (r +0.70%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Philly Fed Index November 2014
U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+40.8 vs. +18.0 exp. vs. +20.7 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) October 2014
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
5.260 vs. 5.150 exp. vs. 5.170 r. 5.180) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 14:58 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Ironically if we do get hikes it will be in an attempt to stop a slide in a currency. Right now everyone is cheering the BoJ but wait around a bit. News from the Ukraine today telling us that prices are going through the roof as the currency collapses.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
Just about every PMI missed today. Global economy slowing? Will ANY Central Bank ever tighten?


For the record I don't see the PMI's as good economic forecasters...

BREAKING NEWS
PAR 14:50 GMT 11/20/2014
That will send US treasury yields sharply lower . Yellen happy .

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI misses expectations and weakens.


BREAKING NEWS
PAR 14:47 GMT 11/20/2014
Strong dollar starting to hit US economy .

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
thats a big miss!

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Markit flash Mfg PMI November 2014
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
54.7 vs. 56.5 exp. vs. 55.9 prelim


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 14:40 GMT 11/20/2014
GVI Forex john 13:32
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

WASHINGTON — Up to four million undocumented immigrants who have lived in the United States for at least five years can apply for a program that protects them from deportation and allows those with no criminal record to work legally in the country, President Obama is to announce on Thursday, according to people briefed on his plans.

Obama’s Immigration Plan Could Shield Four Million


yen
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:39 GMT 11/20/2014  - My Profile


117.36 post-minutes low according to this one hour chart

yen
london red 14:38 GMT 11/20/2014
Couple of hourly trendlines at 11768 and 40. But would expect to 11700/10 to be more supportive with a test of 11770/95.

Dollar
PAR 14:37 GMT 11/20/2014
Dollar and US yields down after dovish FED and rather bad US economic numbers . Jobless claims approaching 300.000 yet again .

yen
london red 14:36 GMT 11/20/2014
Couple of hourly trendl

yen
Singapore SC 14:29 GMT 11/20/2014
What do you guys show as the post fomc mins low? I have 117.35-40 but do not trust my source.

dlr/jpy
hk ab 14:24 GMT 11/20/2014
When the balance is tilted one-side, watch out.

A close under 117.80, inverted hammer?


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