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FOREX FORUM
22/07/14 20:30 C US API Energy con: n/a pre: n/a
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Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 15:39 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile


July 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 23. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, EZ- Consumer Confidence, CA- Retail Sales US- Weekly Crude
  • Far East: AU- CPI.
  • Europe: GB- BOE Minutes, CBI Distributive Trades, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: CA- Retail Sales US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude.



Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:37 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
On Tuesday, the markets are backing away from a defensive risk-off to a risk-on status as worries about  Ukraine and Israel fade. Traders do not see strong President Obama action. Firm action would be a surprise.. U.S, and Eurozone yields and shares are rising A weak EURUSD is risk-on..


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are rising after having fallen sharply last week .Yields on the European periphery are up.The German 10-yr bund is 1.18%, +4bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.59%  +2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.49%,  +1bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are closing up. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Now that we are through EURUSD 1.3500, do we now work our way down to 1.3400 and then stabilize at 1.3420 or so for a week or so before we trade down into the 1.3300's?

EUR is fundamentally weak and the ECB does not mind seeing it fall. This is an unsatisfying move because the USD is seriously flawed. Note I said "flawed", not weak.

S&P New Record High
Paris ib 15:08 GMT 07/22/2014
Looks like we're going for 2000.

June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Note in chart how pending homes sales data (we lag it by one month) predicts Existing homes sales in the following month.

Anecdotally, we have been hearing that housing has been slowing. We would like to see that in the DATA first. Housing starts have been slowing, but Existing Homes sales is by far the most important housing number.

buy euro
Amman wfakhoury 14:18 GMT 07/22/2014
London Chris 10:32 GMT 07/22/2014
Amman is your eurusd buy signal still valid or have you seen the light of the downside?
Reply
___________________________________
13497 and 13458 were both confirmed today , price will start go up unless 1 hr bar closed below 13458.
gap still active , it takes more time than confirmed level.

June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
hk ab 14:18 GMT 07/22/2014
They all go to the Chinese and other foreigners' hands....

June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Recovery in housing market continues.



June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
5.040 vs. 4.990 exp. vs. 4.890 (r 4.910) prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources



U.S. July 2014 Richmond Fed Index
GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
+7 vs. +5 exp. vs. +3 prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:48 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
FWIW, post-CPI bounce high was around 1.3495.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:35 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
As I posted on GVI Forex

Mission accomplished with stops taken out below 1.3475. Pause above 1.3450 saw offsets take over and push USD down elsewhere. Res 1.3490-00.

GVI Forex


Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
red - Many thanks - john

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 12:58 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.471% -1bp

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
london red 12:57 GMT 07/22/2014
john, talk all morning was of higher cpi. look at the big swissie order this morning from 80. market talked itself into a higher number. question now is whether disappointment is contained or we run dollar downside stops. not sure there is enough to flip the dollar today, but its certainly going find make new highs difficult now.

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Not sure why the USDJPY falls on CPI data? Perhaps its coincidental or maybe view is that Pressure on Fed to tighten eases slightly.

Wide divergence post-data between S&P futures and USDJPY.

June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
london red 12:52 GMT 07/22/2014
data roughly inline to soft, but clearly market anticipated better. dollar weakness best seen in currencies in jpy aud and nzd. eur and gbp to follow. eur should be capped by 13520 and cable 171.

June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
U.S. May CPI mixed picture. Fed Targets PCE due later this month...


June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
Mixed CPI data headline rises slightly and core CPI falls.

June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
Headline:
m/m: + 0.3% vs. +0.30% exp. v +0.40% pre
y/y: +2.10% vs. +2.10% exp. v +2.10% pre
Core:
m/m: +0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. v +0.30% pre
y/y: +1.90% vs. +2.00% exp. v +2.00% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


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Observations
London Misha 12:24 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD - Indecisive Spinning Top on Daily Chart but today breaches key 50% Fib 1.3489 & tests 2014 lows. All MAs now turned down!
GBPUSD - 4th Black Crow on Daily Chart, continues testing 2009 high at 1.7042 and its topping action (possible Double Top?) since late Jun!
EURGBP - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart but a lower high with continued overhead resistance from the Centre Tine of the recent AP.
USDJPY - Bullish Dragonfly Doji on Daily Chart as continues bounce up off 101.17 Fib support. MA resistance overhead still 101.82-102.09.
AUDUSD - No follow through on Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart as fails again to breach Downtrend. However, breaches it today & also possible KR today!
USDINR - Island Spike Up has its Gap filled and now rests upon Upper Tine of Apr-Jun SP on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - 2nd Black Crow as follows on Bearish Matching on Daily Chart & 2nd close below Lower Tine of Sep13-May14 AP> Nears MA combo support 10.5795-10.5370.
USDBRL - 2nd Black Crow as follows on to Pipe Top formation on Daily Chart. Still within support band 2.2075-2.2265!
USDRUB - Doji - possibly bullish but also possible small Bearish Harami on Daily Chart. Today drops (so far) through key 50% Fib at 35.1394 & Medium MA at 35.0958.




EUR Heat Map
london red 12:08 GMT 07/22/2014
whiff in the air of cpi beat, certainly in line with morning dollar move. an flation beat particularly on the core side should take us through stops under 70 on the euro. barrier at 50 is likely to be well defended and hold at least til the options cut this afternoon. an inflation miss is likely to have us retrace slightly but plenty of sellers now lined up ahead of 135 and to 13520.
cable may suffer too on an inflation beat, although dip buying should turn out profitable ahead of the minutes tomorrow morning. support at 37 likely to give on a cpi beat, but further support at 25, 15 and if those are taken ultimately 16993 should hold into tomorrow. on the upside there is the 75 fib and further es at 171.
usdjpy. as night follows night, pair rebounded from lows and now not far from res at 80/90. further at 102/102.20, but unlikely to be breached unless cpi is a real upside surprise.
also today are real earnings, out at the same time as cpi. any kind of increase is likely to be jumped on by rate hawks (exp. 0.0%).

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
London Chris 12:06 GMT 07/22/2014
Is anyone betting on a breakout?

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:37 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile


Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

We are all looking at the same 1.3475 level.

Send me an EMAIL to get access to my video updates on a regular basis

Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:04 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
When and why is addressed in this article

Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower


EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly lower. Spot to 20-day averages are mostly negative, except vs. AUD.


buy euro
London Chris 10:32 GMT 07/22/2014
Amman is your eurusd buy signal still valid or have you seen the light of the downside?

buy euro
nw kw 10:27 GMT 07/22/2014
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)
Medium
1.38B 2.78B 2.85B

AceTrader Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 10:05 GMT 07/22/2014


[B]
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

22 Jul 2014[/B] 08:58 GMT

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- .... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3530 in Asian morning n weakened ahead of European open. Intra-day decline accelerated in early European morning n price fell below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 to 1.3480 on broad-based selling of euro. Offers are now seen at 1.3500/05 and more above at 1.3515/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3460/70, suggesting selling on recovery is favored.


Earlier in the Asian morning opening today saw the single currency moved sideways below yesterday's high of 1.3549 but with a soft bias due to ongoing market sentiments that the ECB has room to loosen policy while the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down stimulus tools this year n hike interest rates in 2015.
There are zero economic data to be released fm EZ today, therefore, euro should closely followed the move with other usd/majors.
Range trading below y'day's high of 1.3549 is likely to continue ahead of European open as market eyes on events unfolding in Ukraine and Gaza whilst stops located just below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 are in focus.
At the moment, offers from various accounts was noted at 1.3535/40 n then 1.3545/50 with mixture of offers n stops located above 1.3570.
On the downside, bids were placed at 1.3515/10 and around 1.3500.


....................
....................

July 2014 UK CBI Output Trends
GVI Forex john 10:02 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile



-- NEWS ALERT --

+26 vs.+7 exp. vs. +32 prev.


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Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:01 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
The EUR/USD continued to exhort pressure on the downside as it probed the lower end of its 7-week range. EU foreign ministers debated about more sanctions against Russia was one factor in its price action. Significant stops said to be building below the 1.3477 area which would mark a fresh 2014 low

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: EU leaders debate whether further sanctions are needed on Russia


Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 10:00 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
US futures looking to open UP

Business as usual
PAR 09:49 GMT 07/22/2014
Italian gross government debt hit 135.6% of GDP in March, up 5.8% over a year earlier.

Portugal gross sovereign debt at 132.9% GDP in Match, up 5.4% over a year earlier. Unsustainable.

Risk-Off Posture Fading. The EURUSD Breaks below 1.3500. Active U.S. Calendar
GVI Forex Blog 09:32 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- CPI, Existing Home Sales

The economic calendar for the week starts today with key U.S. CPI data and Existing Homes Sales. On Wednesday Australia quarterly CPI data and Canadian Retail Sales data are due.

Risk-Off Posture Fading. The EURUSD Breaks below 1.3500. Active U.S. Calendar


Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 09:25 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile

Early Tuesday, the markets are backing a way modestly from risk-off to a more neutral posture. It would be a stretch to call it "Risk-on". U,S, and Eurozone yields remain at depressed levels and a snap back to previous levels is always a possibility. EURUSD has broken 1.3500.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly steady after having fallen sharply last week . Yields on the European periphery are mixed.The German 10-yr bund is 1.16%, +2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.59%  +2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  0bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Business as usual
PAR 09:13 GMT 07/22/2014
Greek public debt rockets 13.5% Y/Y in Q1 to 174.1% of GDP, Slovenia's public debt stock up 23.9% to 78.7% of GDP

buy euro
Mtl JP 08:28 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
euro 3 StdD off the 20dma at 1.3461

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:24 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD Seems Like a buy here for 50 pips at least

euro
london red 08:18 GMT 07/22/2014
stops below last weeks low positioned under 90 look at risk but 75/80 should hold into this afternoons cpi, for which expectations arent high, so reason to chase euro lower arent that great.
cable may get dragged a little lower, worth using dips to buy into minutes tomorrow morning, particularly after cpi risk is out of way. minutes may be otherwise, but market expects hawkish. reality may be different but that move happens after the relase, until then market will buy cable dips.

Russia
PAR 08:09 GMT 07/22/2014
Russian stock market moving higher as tensions over Ukraine decline .

AceTrader Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views NZD/USD AUD/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:57 GMT 07/22/2014


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

22 Jul 2014 05:00GMT

NZD/USD - 0.8678... RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer said, quote:
'Reserve Bank of New Zealand to review prudential rules for banks, non-bank lenders;
review to "thin stock" of current regulation, won't be 'a severe pruning'; banking review to take 12 months, may remove redundant rules, simplify framework;
review will not include rules covering insurance sector; key planks such as capital adequacy, liquidity, risk management, governance not in review.'


AUD/USD - Earlier Statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens continues to speak and said "markets remarkably sanguine on geopolitics up to now.
'low rates are doing the things they usually do; doing all that could reasonably be expected at moment, content for now; if policy could reasonably do more, would consider it.'
He began his statement, quote:
"hard to say how successful qe has been globally";
"subdued 'animal spirits' likely one reason for slow economic recoveries";
" is sure spirits will improve at some point, G20 growth agenda could help".

Stevens makes no comments on domestic monetary policy & A$ in his speech. Aud briefly bounced to intra-day high of 0.9395 as st specs sold aussie ahead of Stevens' speech n quickly covered their shorts after his speech did not mention the A$.

Citi Bets On USD For Geopolitical Protection -- Market Talk
Syd 07:47 GMT 07/22/2014
The dollar gained last week on geo-political risk and this is likely to continue, says Citi. "This is a tricky period for asset markets," it says. Positioning still reflects a desire to buy riskier assets but that focused on emerging markets, equities and Asia rather than peripheral Europe, Citi says. The U.S. market's focus on Tuesday will be on CPI, where a high print would be more damaging to asset markets than a low print would be a positive, the bank says. The euro should continue to grind lower and all tough talk against Russia is negative for the European currency, it says. (matthew.cowley@wsj.com)

22/07/2014 Gold and Silver Analysis
Auckland 07:31 GMT 07/22/2014
22/07/2014 Gold and Silver Analysis
MMI GROUP
Gold
Thin gold due to the economic data and geopolitical crisis news such as good or bad ends meet there are not big changes on the pattern.
Gold ETFs data shows that up to July 21, main gold ETF holdings of gold holdings was about 1312.24 tons, 1.81 tons less than the previous session.
Technology on MMI GROUP trust team think the shrinkage triangular pattern in gold, narrow oscillation of yesterday, today still forecast oscillations in the market, if effectively break up 1316.20, may be further upward, test 1333.80. Whereas the down through 1308.30, below the support at 1304.50 or lower.
Upward resistance: 1316.20, 1324.80, 1333.80, 1339.50,
Downward support: 1308.30, 1304.50, 1292, 1268.40

Silver:
Silver Trust, according to data released on 22 July, on 21 July, Silver holdings 10038.52 tons, compared with the previous was unchanged; the silver holdings worth fell to $6.753 billion.
Silver similar to gold, but the fluctuation range was narrowed, Suggestions on the wait and see.
Upward resistance: 21, 2130, 21.50, 22.20,
Downward support: 20.80, 20.50, 20,


This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

Risk On
PAR 07:25 GMT 07/22/2014
1 . It is Tuesday and then markets usually go higher.
2 . Ukraine separatists handed over black boxes and bodies.
3 . US CPI figures will show there is no inflation . So Yellen can repeat mantra " keep rates lower for longer "
4 . UN resolution calming bellicose talk on Ukraine . Full investigation to follow .

GVI Forex Blog 05:51 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
(CN) CHINA JUN CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 1.3% (7-month high) V 0.7% PRIOR - (TW) TAIWAN JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.0% V 4.0%E - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confiden

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan govt cuts GDP forecast; China's CBRC warns on bad loans, while PBoC skips daily drain - Source TradeTheNews.com


AceTraderJul 22: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:26 GMT 07/22/2014


Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

22 Jul 2014 01:26GMT

Bloomberg headline which came out in Australia, Kyodo news reported comments from Japan economy minister Amari who said Japan to decide on 10% sales tax hike in early Dec.

Dlr climbed on the news ahead of Asian open and hit intra-day high of 101.51 after tripping stops above last Fri's top at 101.45.

U.S. President Barack Obama & Polish President Komorowski stress in call need for "transatlantic solidarity" in response of Malaysia plane & "Russia's efforts to destabilise Ukraine" - White House.


Data to be released on Tuesday:

The release of China leading index, Japan leading index, Swiss trade balance, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Redbook retail sales, home price and existing home sales.

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 01:26 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar little changed against euro, yen

* Focus on U.S. consumer prices data later in session

* RBA governor speech eyed for potential Aussie impact

FOREX-Major currencies steady on diminishing risk aversion


EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch. 400% Broker Bonus Offer Exposed
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:36 GMT 07/22/2014  - My Profile
sf, that is not the point. Odds favor you getting wiped out trying to reach the vesting requirement.

buy euro
jkt abel 00:30 GMT 07/22/2014
buy euro 1.3524, stop below 1.3470

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
sd sf 23:00 GMT 07/21/2014
Stevens speaks today in like 4 hours or so I believe - plus a Q/A session after .. so that will most likely impact the AUD on the day.


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