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FOREX FORUM
02/10/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln con: n/a pre: -1.359
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ECB
GVI Forex 22:14 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
17:33 (EU) Nomura: Do not expect ECB to announce any new policy measures; Will maintain a clear bias toward further action if needed - financial press

- Says: "This will be via an expression of the intent to use additional unconventional instruments and alter the size and/or composition of its unconventional interventions should it become necessary to further address risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation... Away from asset purchases, we expect the ECB to remain concerned with the loss of momentum in the business cycle and to see clear downside risks to the economic outlook. Overall, we expect Mr Draghi to keep the threat level of further action as elevated as possible, in order to try and maintain pressure on the exchange rate and keep inflation expectations which remain under pressure - in check."

- Source TradeTheNews.com

EUR/CHF
Livingston nh 22:04 GMT 10/01/2014
Consider the possibility that EUR is doomed no matter what Draghi does tomorrow -- too "loose" EUR spikes down, no news re: purchases or size EUR spikes down, Germans seize control of ECB EUR spikes down -- an initial spike would put the Swiss on guard -- intervention ?? and what do they buy with the acquisition ?? EUR/CHF buy at 1.2020 and dump above 121+


Coming Soon: Stuff you'll never hear about
Livingston nh 21:47 GMT 10/01/2014
The FREE Press clause gains new meaning as the Internet promotes opinion above news

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:45 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile


October 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders


  • Far East: AU- Trade
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders, Natural Gas



Coming Soon: Stuff you'll never hear about
dc CB 21:29 GMT 10/01/2014
From:The Grey Lady:(no mention of NEWS)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The New York Times plans to eliminate about 100 newsroom jobs, as well as a smaller number of positions from its editorial and business operations, offering buyouts and resorting to layoffs if enough people do not leave voluntarily, the newspaper announced on Wednesday.

Arthur Sulzberger Jr., the newspaper’s publisher, and Mark Thompson, its chief executive, said that in addition to the job cuts, NYT Opinion, a new mobile app dedicated to opinion content, was shutting down because it was not attracting enough subscribers.

The reductions, they said, were intended to safeguard the newspaper’s long-term profitability.

“The job losses are necessary to control our costs and to allow us to continue to invest in the digital future of The New York Times, but we know that they will be painful both for the individuals affected and for their colleagues,” the note said.


The latest product, NYT Cooking, is not charging for a subscription but instead is trying to build a large audience before asking readers to pay. Mr. Sulzberger and Mr. Thompson said that by the end of September, just two weeks after its official launch, the product had more than a million unique visitors.

“They are all experiments, which we are determined to treat as such: to learn, pivot and, where necessary, make prompt decisions about them,”

New York Times Plans Cutbacks in Newsroom Staff


stocks to close positive
dc CB 21:17 GMT 10/01/2014


many down to few up
A/D line

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
london red 21:01 GMT 10/01/2014
i have looked at the yearly chart and have a similar outcome, plus a 121 target on any break abv that particular trendline. given the move since summer, we can call this first attempt a false break, so the second from whatever the low will be, thru 109/109.50 is probably the real one.
short term i have a trendline at 108.83. if that doesnt hold on an hourly basis i suspect tomorrow morning there will be a lot more action than the uk construction i planned for.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 20:55 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile


Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Mtl JP 20:45 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile


usdyen longish timeframe t-line
some current day-chart studies suggest a pause which would match the t-line as temporary resistance

Morning
sd sf 20:42 GMT 10/01/2014
Just from my own book.

EUR - bids @14 offers 34 40 42-43
GBP - bids @76 offers @16
YEN - bids @90 offers @18 20 -- some stops under 108.70

CAD - sq.

no real stops in EUR + GBP as with the dips and rallies - it can get out either side.

a lot depends on what the Stock Market does into end of the week - so just let the bots trade their ranges till that is a little clearer.

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Livingston nh 20:41 GMT 10/01/2014
Today was a Will Rogers market in treasurys - less concern about return on money than return of money // whole lotta squeezin' goin' on but Friday should tell the tale

USD/JPY was smitten by Hong Kong antics as China expressed concern about yen depreciation and "somebody" (official or analyst??) suggested that the yen would depreciate more slowly above 110 -- Al Jolson says "you ain't seen nothin' yet"

And STOX - the SPX 200 dma is ~ August lo (we broke the 100 dma today so a simple test of Aug lo puts SPX under 200 dma (unvisited level in many months) and anything below will be the first correction to break a prior correction low this year -- and the TAPER is complete (a mere coincidence I'm sure) - Following Rogers and Jolson we will have Yellen performing her composition NOISE

Day's Trades
dc CB 20:41 GMT 10/01/2014
picture of 10-yr note's price action savvagery
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I wonder how many "fail to delivers" stacked up today after yesterday's $407bln need for Treasuries to WindowDress by 102 "Institutions", salvating at the NYFED's trough for hypothecatable collateral.

Wonder how much that goosed the bond market today in the scramble for actuals. Guess we'll have to wait a few weeks for that data to be leaked

Take a look at the 2y chart...which by the way according to the COT held the biggest Spec Short in years.

2year COT


Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
london red 20:30 GMT 10/01/2014
i read today that the data caught a lot of people on the wrong side position wise. i mentioned earlier in the week the way the 10yr was set up so i can accept that.
but i have been looking through some notes that came over the wires today and one looks at usdjpy. q4 10213 low to high was 9 figures. q3 2014 low to high was, yep you guessed it 9 figures. on both occasions a higher high was made right at the start of the quarter. what followed then for q4 2013 was a 50% decline before the rally recommenced. back then the 20 day supported on a closing basis, this time the 10 day ma has been sufficient. the fall in q1 2014 taught us that the rallies were fierce, so selling rallies and covering the dips was the order of the day. following downside breakouts usually ended up with losses unless stops were v generous. after the initial move below the 20 day ma, the market rallied almost back to the q4 high but lost nearly 3 figures in two days.

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
GVI Forex john 20:28 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
In a word I am "dumbfounded".

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Mtl JP 20:25 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
john 20:10 r u awed ?


Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
GVI Forex john 20:10 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
10-yr going out a 2.391%

stocks to close positive
dc CB 20:09 GMT 10/01/2014
From: NYFED Trading Desk
To: Da Stox Market
CC: Da New Chicago Desk

We trided(sic) to git the Dow to only read 1XX in da Red,
but we broke it.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As the late-day VIX slamdown began, and stocks levitated off the lows, CBOE's Futures Exchange "broke." At 1542ET, VIX futures/options stopped trading (though the VIX index continued to push lower).

VIX Options Halted As CBOE Breaks


Day's Trades
Mtl JP 20:07 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile


picture of 10-yr note's price action savvagery

USDJPY
Amman wfakhoury 20:07 GMT 10/01/2014
Amman wfakhoury 16:36 GMT 10/01/2014
USDJPY is heading 109-108.80 any rise above 109.32 will return to it
__________________-
here we are in the are 109-108.80

Day's Trades
GVI Forex 19:52 GMT 10/01/2014
US equities and interest rates took a dive. The S&P500 is currently down 1.2% and 10yr yields fell 11bp. Eurozone PMIs disappointed, as did US construction spending and ISM manufacturing activity (the better ADP payrolls result appeared to be overlooked). In addition, Russia said it needed to "protect" ethnic Russians in the Baltics, and there were rumours of a second Ebola case in Dallas.
-- ANZ NZ

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 19:48 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
THURSDAY
01:30 AU Trade Important Trade measure
08:28 GB Construction PMI Closely-followed production index
11:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank More ease to be signaled?
12:30  US Initial Claims   +300 expected
14:00  US Factory Orders Future production predictor
FRIDAY
07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
12:30  CA Trade External sector measure 
12:30  US Payrolls Major Fed Target
12:30  US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
13:45  US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 19:40 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
GUys
EURNZD is going to blow north

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:32 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Ebola in the USA
dc CB 19:24 GMT 10/01/2014
don't dismiss the effect on a "comsumption" based economy. vis-a-vis STOX. "it's contain(ed)(able)".
(the Secret Service can't stop someone from entering the WH---follow the logic) Big OOOPS our bad to bad for you.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

DALLAS — Health officials in Dallas are monitoring at least five schoolchildren in North Texas who came into contact with a man found to have Ebola virus, after he became sick and infectious.

The authorities also said that an early opportunity to put the patient in isolation, limiting the risk of contagion, may have been missed because of a failure to pass along critical information about his travel history.

After Ebola Case in Dallas, Health Officials Seek Those Who Had Contact With Patient


Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 19:22 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
GBPJPY Slow Recovery into Next week...will tak her to 185+ Into April End
Recovers faster then EURJPY IMO

stocks to close positive
london red 19:20 GMT 10/01/2014
not sure it goes far either way before ecb. but however tight the range (maybe 25/30 pts pre ecb, its there to be caught. maybe 2885 low 2620 high. theres uk construction tomorrow, which i dont expect too much from lets say. so eurgbp is going to play a role in the morning.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 19:12 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
GBPJPY Longs seem Better
Recovering slow into next week
176.9731 176.4491

TGT 178.4401

stocks to close positive
Mtl JP 19:10 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
I like short euro for 1.2550 trgt here , say with 20-30-ish pips sl

GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
October 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 2, 2014


Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 19:06 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
EURJPY..Longing small

137.8669 137.2026

TGT 138.8110

IMO a Better buy next week
136.9716 136.6232
TGT 141.2457


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile


October 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders


  • Far East: AU- Trade
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders, Natural Gas



stocks to close positive
london red 19:02 GMT 10/01/2014
nobody interested (long stox) by looks of it JP, id expect that while below that figure. btw i use the index rather than futures to chart in case of any confusion.
bonds moving back to highs at end of session, never good for risk. i might sell dec 10 at 125.66/70 tomorrow if AFTER ecb. i cannot see them going thru there ahead of nfp if ecb passes without too many problem.
but usdjpy moving to low towards end of session, despite the negative signal, i see a bear trap thru 10905/12 to trade to 10947 at some stage tomorrow, then all to play for albeit with a negative bias in my view. a move below 10905 should see 108.50 in a blink of an eye (maybe something for friday if nfp disappoints), but we have to retrace part of todays range tomorrow.

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:00 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


stocks to close positive
Mtl JP 18:55 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
SnP low sofar 1937.75

stocks to close positive
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
1955 ? we are on the downside of 1955 atm.. 1940-ish

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 18:31 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Correction
GBPCAD Longs
1.8035 1.8062
tgt 1.8216

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 18:30 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
GBPCAD Longs
1.8216 1.8062
tgt 1.8035
this guy wants 1.85 area mid april IMO

ECB Decision Due. Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster
GVI Forex Blog 18:24 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB, US- Weekly Jobs, Factory Orders

Thursday sees the latest ECB Po;icy decision. No major changes in policy are expected. The surprise outcome would be a strong easing of policy. ADP Private Payroll data showed a gain of +213K in August vs. +202K in July. The data should have no impact on street expectations for a gain in non-farm payrolls of about that figure on Friday.

ECB Decision Due. Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster


stocks to close positive
tokyo ginko 18:19 GMT 10/01/2014
maybe..thanks

order key in 1970.5 to t-p

off to airport...later.

stocks to close positive
london red 18:14 GMT 10/01/2014
youll get your chance ginko. unless they retake 1955 we aint done yet on the downside.

stocks to close positive
tokyo ginko 18:12 GMT 10/01/2014
went in an hour too early...low 1937 ..

now 1941..

upside for now..GT all..

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
GVI Forex john 18:12 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.414% -9bp
DJIA-230
S&P --24

EURUSD directionless.

Break the buck
dc CB 18:06 GMT 10/01/2014
The FED "broke the Buck" in yesterday's RevRepo

Collateral Type: Treasury
Submitted: $407.167bln
Accepted : $300bln

Rate (%): Award 0.00%...High 0.05%...Low -0.20%

Temporary Open Market Operations last 25 SEE Sept 30


Break the buck
PAR 17:57 GMT 10/01/2014
Money market funds in Europe are fighting to avoid "breaking the buck," which could trigger huge outflows from the sector.

These funds typically invest in cash-equivalent assets, like high-quality short-term corporate debt or government debt. For investors, the advantage they have over stocks is that they're a safe place to park cash. You can almost never lose money in a money market fund.


In return you'll get modest but positive returns, with very low risk. Crucially, they strenuously seek to avoid "breaking the buck" — or returning less to investors than they put in.

Unfortunately, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having imposed a negative deposit rate of -0.2% on reserves held at the bank, this task has become harder than ever. Investors who don't want to lose money are now forced to withdraw it and figuratively hide it under a mattress until the negative interest rate era is over. That could reduce the amount of cash available for companies and governments to borrow (and spend), thus further crippling Europe's fragile economic recovery

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Paris ib 17:51 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Indeed JP. And just watch the margin calls on all the carry trades. The trend is your friend..... until it's not.

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Mtl JP 17:50 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
ib 17:42 - I am thinking the levered long accounts be producing sweat bullets . not good moments for folks in debt, be they long stox or short bond

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Mtl JP 17:44 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile


stocks still only 50% of Babson Break

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
london red 17:43 GMT 10/01/2014
1921 nxt for s&p. trendline rising. id say today if not for ecb and nfp week. but 1955 should cap into ecb and poss into nfp on a close below today.

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Paris ib 17:42 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
JP... is that a dare?


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