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27/04/15 13:45 A US flash MKT SVC PMI con: 58.8 pre: 59.2
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VAROUFAKIS OUT ?
GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Translation:

Radical staff exchange in Athens: Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (41) deposed his finance Yanis Varoufakis (54) further! Varoufakis is not responsible for negotiations with the so-called Euro-group now!


From Wednesday to Deputy Foreign Minister Efkledes Tsakalotos (54) for Greece in Brussels to negotiate with the Euro group. This was announced by the government in Athens. Tsakalotos'm going to work "under Varoufakis," it said tersely. The goal is to improve the climate conversation.

VAROUFAKIS OUT ?
PAR 13:26 GMT 04/27/2015
Griechischer Finanzminister nicht mehr für Verhandlungen mit Euro-Gruppe zuständig

-

Varoufakis entmachtet!

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/yanis-varoufakis/tsipras-finanzminister-entmachtet-40718888.bild.html

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 13:26 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
RISK ON
following word Greece might be revising its reform program

DAX +199
DJ futures +83
S&P futures +7


US 10-yr 1.921% +1.1bp
DE 10-yr 16.5% +0.8bp



VAROUFAKIS OUT ?
NY JM 13:22 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
PAR, good info in that post.

VAROUFAKIS OUT ?
PAR 13:13 GMT 04/27/2015
European markets have caught fire in the last 30minutes, as headlines intensify Yanis Varoufakis has been sidelined by Tsipras, and Germany’s Bild reporting the Greeks have revised their reform list. The DAX is up 90bp, with only the Fins in the red (DB #s), while discretionary names are leaping by over 2% in heavy volume. Over in Asia, China stocks jumped to fresh seven-year highs on expectations that Beijing will accelerate mergers among state-owned enterprises, while a Pop in Ore prices benefited the Miners, helping Aussie close at 7Y highs. On the flip side, Fitch Downgrades Japan (Nikkei off small), while India was hit for 1%, and now red on the year.

Read more: http://uk.businessinsider.com/trader-chat-april-27-2015-4#ixzz3YVzLfI9O

GVI Forex Blog 12:49 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 5-yr Auction

GVI Forex Calendar for April 28, 2015


UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile


April 27, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, April 28, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 5-yr Auction
  • Far East: JP- Retail Sales
  • Europe: GB- GDP
  • North America: US- Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 5-yr Auction, Weekly Energy



BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Iran Radio reports ISIS leader Dead

GBP
NY JM 12:40 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
My view on cable has been that there was a flow that drove it higher. I have not seen any talk of this in print but price action suggested it was more than spec buying.

For me it would have to trade and hold above 1.5164 and then take out 1.52 to suggest more upside.

If I am right in my suspicion of a flow, then see what happens if whatever order drove it higher is no longer in the market.

GBP
london red 12:23 GMT 04/27/2015
anyone following gc sf banks calls danske have a cable limit at 15088 stop 15013 tgt 15317.
last months high is well over 154 i dont think we see that this month (unless fed really doves out) but they might stretch to 15350/60 is 15300/20 beat. but up there 152/153 id look for downside, put options 2wk.

GBP
london red 12:02 GMT 04/27/2015
nr term since we started at fridays and last weeks high, the need for some retracement after no followthru, hence 15090/95 and 15060/70 sups mentioned.

GBP
london red 11:57 GMT 04/27/2015
tomorrows gdp unlikely to miss 0.5 f/c might even see 0.6 but fed takes priority until out of way. once fed done think can focus on cable downside but it may be that it starts its fall from 153 area as dollar likely to fall back after fed meet unless they stick to guns and dont dwell on recent weak data.

UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 11:53 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
We have gotten off to a surprisingly sluggish start for the week. Convictions do not appear to be terribly strong at the moment. I do think traders would react to a movement away from current levels.

As for data the flash Markit PMI Service data are due at 13:45 GMT. I doubt if this will be much of a catalyst today.

GBP
London Chris 11:40 GMT 04/27/2015
Maybe this is the week the market wakes up to the fact that there is an election coming up shortly.

Japan Downgrade
PAR 10:54 GMT 04/27/2015
Fitch downgrades Japan’s credit rating, highlighting the challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces in trying to stoke growth and rein in public debt.

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 10:26 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
GBPUSD
BIAS: Mixed 20-day 1.4573 50-day 1.5027

R1 1.5230 (HOD 1.5190)
PIVOT 1.5127 (sets the tone)
S1 1.5070 (LOD 1.5130)

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 10:22 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD
Basic Bias: Mixed-- 20-day avg 1.0768: 50-day 1.0907

R1 1.0915 (HOD 1.0886)
PIVOT 1.0849 (50 level sets the tone)
S1 1.0796 (LOD 1.0826)

eurusd
london red 10:19 GMT 04/27/2015
cable. sup at 15090/95 and 15060/70. technically if going to test 15300/20 then 14910/15 max low this week. one off events excepted.

eurusd
Tallinn viies 10:11 GMT 04/27/2015
trying small long euro here at 1,0825. stop at 1,0775.
target 1,0895

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 10:10 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 09:19 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
Fitch Downgrades Japan Sovereign Debt to A from A+: Outlook Stable

-- TradetheNews.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 09:11 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile



RISK OFF: Market Looking Ahead to GDP Data and Fed Decision Mid-Week
GVI Forex Blog 09:09 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: US- flash Markit Service PMI. 2-yr Auction

RISK OFF: Market Looking Ahead to GDP Data and Fed Decision Mid-Week


AceTrader Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:16 GMT 04/27/2015
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major USD/JPY
Update Time: 27 Apr 2015 08:05 GMT

USD/JPY - 119.23
Although dollar's retreat from last Thursday's high of 120.09 to 118.82 on Friday strongly suggests the correction from last Monday's 3-week through at 118.53 has ended there, intra-day rebound after marginal fall to 118.78 suggests further choppy trading above said support would be seen, however, reckon resistance at 119.66 would hold and bring another sell off later.

Below 118.78 would bring re-test of 118.53, break would signal erratic decline from March's near 8-year peak at 122.03 has resumed and bring re-test of 118.33 (reaction low from 122.03) and then towards 118.00.

Trades
gc sf 07:20 GMT 04/27/2015
CHF

got to watch this 9590-9600 level now

some banks coming in suggesting to sell there for that test down into the stops 9450 level.

it is going to be the one that shows direction when it breaks 9500 or probably 9630.

Trades
gc sf 07:16 GMT 04/27/2015
CS buys GBP 1.5155 target 1.5332 sl 1.4960
Danske buys AUD .7793 sl 7703 tp 7939

MS offers $YEN 119.40 sl 120.40 tp 116

GVI Forex Blog 06:33 GMT 04/27/2015  - My Profile
- (CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PROFITS YTD Y/Y: -2.7% V -4.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.4% ***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***- Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX +0.8%, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite +2.1%, Hang Seng +1.

China rally intact as SOE in default secures relief - Source TradeTheNews.com



AceTrader Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:07 GMT 04/27/2015

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD
Update Time: 27 Apr 2015 01:18 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0865
Euro's rally to a fresh 2-1/2 week peak at 1.0899 last Friday signals up move from April's bottom at 1.0521 has resumed and further gain to 1.0950/60 would be seen.
However, reckon 1.1000 would cap upside due to near term loss of momentum and bring strong retreat later this week.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.0785 would confirm a top is made and bring correction towards 1.0733 before prospect of a rebound.

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key could be in trouble
HK RF@ 01:33 GMT 04/27/2015

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key could be in trouble after he pulled the ponytail of a waitress in a café. Mr Key apologised after waitress Amanda Bailey posted online that the PM had pulled her hair many times when he visited the café. Ms Bailey said Mr Key started the hair-pulling last year during his election campaign. She said she repeatedly told him to stop and to not do it again, but he didn't listen to her. She could now take New Zealand's leader to court. He could be investigated for the crime of "hostile touching" if Ms Bailey goes to the police. A New Zealand legal expert said: "You have to remember this is an older white male with a lot of power." He said Ms Bailey was in a powerless position.



New Zealand Prime Minister John Key could be in trouble Read more: http://www.breakingnewsenglish.com/1504/150425-ponytail.html#ixzz3YWo14Bnp


Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:02 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

>> Open Access >>

The dollar has turned on the defensive but is this just a waiting game for U.S. data to rebound in the 2nd quarter? Can the GBP extend gains with the election looming? Is this just consolidation for the EURUSD? I address this and more in my forex trading outlook for the week ahead.


Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

Max McKegg's USDJPY forecast
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:05 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

Max has kindly provided us with his outlook for the USDJPY. As he notes, the US Dollar has significant Downside potential ahead against the Majors and indicative of this is USD/JPY, where from an Elliott Wave perspective the Dollar is interpreted to be undergoing a Medium Term 4th Wave correction. You may be surprised at the extent of this bearish forecast.  

Max McKegg's USDJPY forecast

Update
GVI Forex john 21:56 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
fwiw I expect the Fed to be cautious on Wednesday.They already have signaled no rate change. In my opinion it would be premature to signal a rate hike at their next meeting on June 17. They see stronger data. We will get two sets jobs reports after Wednesday's meeting and before the June meet.

Update
gc sf 21:41 GMT 04/26/2015
u have to also focus on CHF 9500-10

I don't think Asia will figure this out today - as we couldn't Friday either - basically selling into the EUR Low

but Europe will really set the tone into the lead up to FOMC.

Update
GVI Forex john 21:37 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
my focus is the 1.0907 50-day average.

Update
GVI Forex john 21:27 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
sf- thanks for the info. Very helpful!

I would have expected stops just above 1.0900 in EURUSD, but I can understand the rationale for sell orders there as well..

Update
gc sf 20:55 GMT 04/26/2015
just a bit more on what the remaining stops are - and which side is the weakest heading into a really important week of trading

AUD - stops @7850 7940

EUR - selling 1.0910-20 stops 1.1050 - 1.1165

$CAD - stops 1.2275 1.2230 1.2430 -- a lot of buying 1.1995-1.2000 for t/p purposes against the stops.

CHF - stops 9479 down to 9459 (remember Jordan jawboning CHF when it got down near 9510 Friday)

Yen - stops 108.20-30

GBP - all those tight stops were triggered @1.5180 -- now most of the selling is 1.5250-1.5300 with stops @1.5400

You have to remember that sometimes these positions work out -- what it is more useful for is knowing how far something can move when events support a movement like that.

Global-View Trading Systems
nw kw 20:44 GMT 04/26/2015
One thing that jumps out at me is that bigger pivot in cad/jpy at 98.72 and is cats cot reversing so 1.10 target.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/oil-production-slowdown-looks-to-benefit-oilsands-crude/ar-BBiFOIL

need hft for fed

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/oil-production-slowdown-looks-to-benefit-oilsands-crude/ar-BBiFOIL


UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 17:05 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    MONDAY
    13:45 US flash MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy
    17:00 UST TRY 2-yr
    23:50 JP Retail Sales yy consumer demand
    TUESDAY
    8:30 GB GDP widest measure of economy
    14:00 US CB Cons Confidence Latest view on economy
    17:00 UST TRY 5-yr
    WEDNESDAY
    0:00 JP Holiday
    11:00 DE fl HICP yy ECB targets inflation
    12:00 JP Ind Outp yy product
    12:30 US GDP q/q widest measure of economy
    14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Sales
    14:30 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
    17:00 USFRB Fed Rates Fed Policy Decision
    17:00 UST TRY 7-yr
    20:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rate RBNZ Decision
    THURSDAY
    4:30 JP Bank of Japan Bank of Japan
    7:55 DE Jobless Employment
    8:00 CH KOF Ind
    9:00 EZ flash HICP y ECB targets inflation
    9:00 EZ fl core HICP y m ECB targets inflation
    12:30 CA GDP mm Broadest Economic measure
    12:30 US PCE defl y Fed inflation target
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobs data
    12:30 US Per Income earnings
    13:45 US Chicago PMI Regional PMI
    23:30 JP Unemploy jobs data
    23:30 JP core CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    23:30 JP CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    FRIDAY
    CH Holiday
    CN Holiday
    EZ Holiday
    1:00 CN NBS PMI Latest view on economy
    1:35 JP final Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    8:28 GB Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    13:45 US final U of Mich Sentiment Survey
    14:00 US Construction Spend construction
    14:00 US ISM MFG PMI Latest view on economy

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).



Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 16:50 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
One thing that jumps out at me is that GBPUSD spot is above its 20-day (1.4873) and 50-day (1.5027) moving averages.

UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 16:22 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile


April 26, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 27, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- flash Markit Service PMI. 2-yr Auction
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major data
  • North America: US- flash Markit Service PMI. 2-yr Auction



Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System






Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 15:38 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
Global-View Week ahead Planning Guide for Trading

Conclusions:
An aggressively easy ECB monetary Policy is locked in until well into 2016. It has been resulting in negative interest rates well out the curve. Low interest will continue to be a chronic weight on the EUR until this policy can be lifted. The falling 2-yr German schatz is a manifestation of that policy.



Fed policy signals have been mixed. In sum, the Fed is preparing the markets for an eventual slight increase in the Fed Funds target, but is assuring markets that any policy tightening will be extremely gradual. We are expecting no policy changes form the Fed this Wednesday. U.S. economic indicators remain mixed.





The upcoming week is a full one for data. Monday, April 27 features the Markit flash PMI data for the U.S.



On Tuesday, U.K. GDP and the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Sentiment are due.





On Wednesday April 29, the major focus will be the latest policy decision of the Federal Reserve. No rate changes are expected. The session also sees 1Q15 U.S, GDP.



Thursday April 30 features flash Eurozone CPI data, which is a policy focus for the European Central Bank. The Fed inflation policy target, the PCE deflator is due as well.





On Friday May 1, many markets will be closed for the May Day holiday. Key markets that are open will see final Manufacturing PMI data for April.





Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:24 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

>> Open Access >>

The dollar has turned on the defensive but is this just a waiting game for U.S. data to rebound in the 2nd quarter? Can the GBP extend gains with the election looming? Is this just consolidation for the EURUSD? I address this and more in my forex trading outlook for the week ahead.

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 14:20 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
For Monday

Looking purely at the charts, it looks to me like the upside POTENTIAL of EURUSD for outweighs its downside. We just need a catalyst.

Looking at what is in store early for Monday, I see interesting targets of opportunity clustered on the upside for those looking to do some mischief (algos).

the short term charts (5 min to hourly) suggest 1.0880 could see some stops.

Then the 1.0900 HOD on Friday is an obvious target
Also the critical 50-day moving average comes in at 1.0907.
Above the 50-day average would be a game changer for market momentum.



Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 12:14 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
Interest in positioning Swissy has diminished to almost nothing since the SNB debacle...







Click on chart for COT Details



Australian Regional Unemployment Hits 12 Year High
Sydney ACC 01:39 GMT 04/26/2015
Since February 2012, unemployment in the Hunter Valley region in NSW has risen from 2.3 per cent to over 12 per cent.

In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, NSW, the unemployment rate has increased by 3.4 percentage points over that time.

In outback Western Australia the unemployment rate has risen 4.9 percentage points, while in Mackay, Queensland, it has risen by 4.8 percentage points.

The unemployment rate in regional Australia is 7.3 per cent, in non-seasonally adjusted terms, while the comparable national unemployment rate is 6.3 per cent.

Jack Archer, RAI's deputy chief executive, says the numbers show that regional economies need to find strategies for new economic development.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/regional-unemployment-hits-12year-high-20150424-1msjaq.html

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 22:29 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
Traders unwinding their GBBUSD shorts as down-momentum wanes.


Net GBP and CHF COT Positions








Click on chart for COT Details




Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 22:03 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
USDJPY stability seeing positions being wound down to almost nothing...






Click on chart for JPY COT Details



Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 21:58 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
Despite volatility Net positions and spots about steady on a week on week basis...
Net EU COT Positions




Click on chart for EUR COT Details








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