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AceTrader Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:07 GMT 04/27/2015

Update Time: 27 Apr 2015 01:18 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0865
Euro's rally to a fresh 2-1/2 week peak at 1.0899 last Friday signals up move from April's bottom at 1.0521 has resumed and further gain to 1.0950/60 would be seen.
However, reckon 1.1000 would cap upside due to near term loss of momentum and bring strong retreat later this week.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.0785 would confirm a top is made and bring correction towards 1.0733 before prospect of a rebound.

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key could be in trouble
HK RF@ 01:33 GMT 04/27/2015

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key could be in trouble after he pulled the ponytail of a waitress in a café. Mr Key apologised after waitress Amanda Bailey posted online that the PM had pulled her hair many times when he visited the café. Ms Bailey said Mr Key started the hair-pulling last year during his election campaign. She said she repeatedly told him to stop and to not do it again, but he didn't listen to her. She could now take New Zealand's leader to court. He could be investigated for the crime of "hostile touching" if Ms Bailey goes to the police. A New Zealand legal expert said: "You have to remember this is an older white male with a lot of power." He said Ms Bailey was in a powerless position.

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key could be in trouble Read more:

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:02 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

>> Open Access >>

The dollar has turned on the defensive but is this just a waiting game for U.S. data to rebound in the 2nd quarter? Can the GBP extend gains with the election looming? Is this just consolidation for the EURUSD? I address this and more in my forex trading outlook for the week ahead.

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

Max McKegg's USDJPY forecast
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:05 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

Max has kindly provided us with his outlook for the USDJPY. As he notes, the US Dollar has significant Downside potential ahead against the Majors and indicative of this is USD/JPY, where from an Elliott Wave perspective the Dollar is interpreted to be undergoing a Medium Term 4th Wave correction. You may be surprised at the extent of this bearish forecast.  

Max McKegg's USDJPY forecast

GVI Forex john 21:56 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
fwiw I expect the Fed to be cautious on Wednesday.They already have signaled no rate change. In my opinion it would be premature to signal a rate hike at their next meeting on June 17. They see stronger data. We will get two sets jobs reports after Wednesday's meeting and before the June meet.

gc sf 21:41 GMT 04/26/2015
u have to also focus on CHF 9500-10

I don't think Asia will figure this out today - as we couldn't Friday either - basically selling into the EUR Low

but Europe will really set the tone into the lead up to FOMC.

GVI Forex john 21:37 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
my focus is the 1.0907 50-day average.

GVI Forex john 21:27 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
sf- thanks for the info. Very helpful!

I would have expected stops just above 1.0900 in EURUSD, but I can understand the rationale for sell orders there as well..

gc sf 20:55 GMT 04/26/2015
just a bit more on what the remaining stops are - and which side is the weakest heading into a really important week of trading

AUD - stops @7850 7940

EUR - selling 1.0910-20 stops 1.1050 - 1.1165

$CAD - stops 1.2275 1.2230 1.2430 -- a lot of buying 1.1995-1.2000 for t/p purposes against the stops.

CHF - stops 9479 down to 9459 (remember Jordan jawboning CHF when it got down near 9510 Friday)

Yen - stops 108.20-30

GBP - all those tight stops were triggered @1.5180 -- now most of the selling is 1.5250-1.5300 with stops @1.5400

You have to remember that sometimes these positions work out -- what it is more useful for is knowing how far something can move when events support a movement like that.

Global-View Trading Systems
nw kw 20:44 GMT 04/26/2015
One thing that jumps out at me is that bigger pivot in cad/jpy at 98.72 and is cats cot reversing so 1.10 target.

need hft for fed

GVI Forex john 17:05 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    13:45 US flash MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy
    17:00 UST TRY 2-yr
    23:50 JP Retail Sales yy consumer demand
    8:30 GB GDP widest measure of economy
    14:00 US CB Cons Confidence Latest view on economy
    17:00 UST TRY 5-yr
    0:00 JP Holiday
    11:00 DE fl HICP yy ECB targets inflation
    12:00 JP Ind Outp yy product
    12:30 US GDP q/q widest measure of economy
    14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Sales
    14:30 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
    17:00 USFRB Fed Rates Fed Policy Decision
    17:00 UST TRY 7-yr
    20:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rate RBNZ Decision
    4:30 JP Bank of Japan Bank of Japan
    7:55 DE Jobless Employment
    8:00 CH KOF Ind
    9:00 EZ flash HICP y ECB targets inflation
    9:00 EZ fl core HICP y m ECB targets inflation
    12:30 CA GDP mm Broadest Economic measure
    12:30 US PCE defl y Fed inflation target
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobs data
    12:30 US Per Income earnings
    13:45 US Chicago PMI Regional PMI
    23:30 JP Unemploy jobs data
    23:30 JP core CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    23:30 JP CPI BOJ targets Inflation
    CH Holiday
    CN Holiday
    EZ Holiday
    1:00 CN NBS PMI Latest view on economy
    1:35 JP final Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    8:28 GB Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    13:45 US final U of Mich Sentiment Survey
    14:00 US Construction Spend construction
    14:00 US ISM MFG PMI Latest view on economy

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 16:50 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
One thing that jumps out at me is that GBPUSD spot is above its 20-day (1.4873) and 50-day (1.5027) moving averages.

GVI Forex john 16:22 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

April 26, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 27, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- flash Markit Service PMI. 2-yr Auction
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major data
  • North America: US- flash Markit Service PMI. 2-yr Auction

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 15:38 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
Global-View Week ahead Planning Guide for Trading

An aggressively easy ECB monetary Policy is locked in until well into 2016. It has been resulting in negative interest rates well out the curve. Low interest will continue to be a chronic weight on the EUR until this policy can be lifted. The falling 2-yr German schatz is a manifestation of that policy.

Fed policy signals have been mixed. In sum, the Fed is preparing the markets for an eventual slight increase in the Fed Funds target, but is assuring markets that any policy tightening will be extremely gradual. We are expecting no policy changes form the Fed this Wednesday. U.S. economic indicators remain mixed.

The upcoming week is a full one for data. Monday, April 27 features the Markit flash PMI data for the U.S.

On Tuesday, U.K. GDP and the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Sentiment are due.

On Wednesday April 29, the major focus will be the latest policy decision of the Federal Reserve. No rate changes are expected. The session also sees 1Q15 U.S, GDP.

Thursday April 30 features flash Eurozone CPI data, which is a policy focus for the European Central Bank. The Fed inflation policy target, the PCE deflator is due as well.

On Friday May 1, many markets will be closed for the May Day holiday. Key markets that are open will see final Manufacturing PMI data for April.

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:24 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile

>> Open Access >>

The dollar has turned on the defensive but is this just a waiting game for U.S. data to rebound in the 2nd quarter? Can the GBP extend gains with the election looming? Is this just consolidation for the EURUSD? I address this and more in my forex trading outlook for the week ahead.

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 14:20 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
For Monday

Looking purely at the charts, it looks to me like the upside POTENTIAL of EURUSD for outweighs its downside. We just need a catalyst.

Looking at what is in store early for Monday, I see interesting targets of opportunity clustered on the upside for those looking to do some mischief (algos).

the short term charts (5 min to hourly) suggest 1.0880 could see some stops.

Then the 1.0900 HOD on Friday is an obvious target
Also the critical 50-day moving average comes in at 1.0907.
Above the 50-day average would be a game changer for market momentum.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 12:14 GMT 04/26/2015  - My Profile
Interest in positioning Swissy has diminished to almost nothing since the SNB debacle...

Click on chart for COT Details

Australian Regional Unemployment Hits 12 Year High
Sydney ACC 01:39 GMT 04/26/2015
Since February 2012, unemployment in the Hunter Valley region in NSW has risen from 2.3 per cent to over 12 per cent.

In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, NSW, the unemployment rate has increased by 3.4 percentage points over that time.

In outback Western Australia the unemployment rate has risen 4.9 percentage points, while in Mackay, Queensland, it has risen by 4.8 percentage points.

The unemployment rate in regional Australia is 7.3 per cent, in non-seasonally adjusted terms, while the comparable national unemployment rate is 6.3 per cent.

Jack Archer, RAI's deputy chief executive, says the numbers show that regional economies need to find strategies for new economic development.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 22:29 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
Traders unwinding their GBBUSD shorts as down-momentum wanes.

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 22:03 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
USDJPY stability seeing positions being wound down to almost nothing...

Click on chart for JPY COT Details

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 21:58 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
Despite volatility Net positions and spots about steady on a week on week basis...
Net EU COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

October 15th Bond Market Crash Explained
dc CB 20:37 GMT 04/25/2015

Remember when Bonds were actually serving as a Bond Function in Markets?

Theoretically in a normalized bond market with normalized interest rates bonds trade in a price range and the 10-year bond has a yield of 3.5 to 4.5%, and then yes bondholders are in this trade to take advantage of a hedged, balanced portfolio with a steady yield which nicely offsets their more volatile brethren in the equities market. So these investors in a normalized market are playing bonds for the steady yield returns and safe haven aspect of the investment. However, those days are long gone in financial markets since ZIRP went into effect globally!

Markets Don`t Crash Up!

S&P : Critical Point 2116.8
Hong Kong Qindex 17:18 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
Entry: Target: Stop:

S&P (2111.7) : Critical Point 2116.8

The recently high is 2114.5. If the market retreats further and trades below 2097.5 it may trigger speculative selling pressure. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market has a tendency to trade between 2041.7 and 2120.5(see the monthly cycle congested area). My bias is on the downside when the market is rejected from the Critical Point at 2116.8. In the mean time the market is positioning at a neutral point.

S&P 500 : Monthly Cycle Charts

Crash Boys
Livingston nh 14:49 GMT 04/25/2015
John - remember Portfolio Insurance? 1987

The exchanges need to put in time limits or some other type of kill switch BUT anybody that uses ALGOS should know and be aware of the risk because any automated system can be fooled --

"Livingston nh 19:06 GMT April 13, 2015
Automated trading algos are not AI (rather Expert systems)- they are like alarm clox - trade a headline, you can spoof these mopes // change the time on the alarm clock and you may not get the result you expect - larger pockets can trap the users

This is all overblown"

__ nevertheless I have put BLACK Plastic Garbage Bags across the windows in my mother's basement

Is the Dollar Bull Run Over?
GVI Forex Blog 11:57 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile

Honestly I don't know, but I am now not nearly as bullish on the USD as I was a few weeks ago. It all depends on future U.S. data we have not seen yet. Currently just about every analyst blames the poor performance of the U.S. economy in 1Q15 on the severe winter. But it gets cold every winter and isn't that what seasonal-adjustments to data are all about? Many are expecting annualized 1Q15 GDP (seasonally adjusted) to have been about flat in the period. 2Q15 GDP is expected to rebound strongly, but we will see. Once we start to get an inkling of what is happening this...

Is the Dollar Bull Run Over?

Crash Boys
GVI Forex john 11:44 GMT 04/25/2015  - My Profile
When I think about it, it seems to me that SARAO exploited a weakness of the algos who reacted to a bunch of phony sell orders. A human trader in the pits on on a trading floor would not have been that naive. If someone came onto a trading floor with large orders to sell above the market that were pulled whenever they were approached, he would not last long.

Yhe flash crash was caused by poorly designed algos which should be banned as well.

Crash Boys
jkt abel 03:57 GMT 04/25/2015
so a few years down the road they are going to arrest a GV member for causing the flash crash in usdchf during that SNB fiasco?

dc CB 20:39 GMT 04/24/2015
OH for got the Most Important quote from that story

Bittar, who joined Deutsche Bank in 2001, took billion-euro positions on the direction of short-term interest rates with the firm’s own money and reaped hundreds of millions of euros in profit for the bank.

The lender started to scale back its proprietary-trading operations in 2008, and Bittar was named global head of money market derivatives trading, moving to Singapore, in the years that followed, according to the CFTC. The lender dismissed him in December 2011, people with knowledge of the situation said in 2013.

dc CB 20:35 GMT 04/24/2015
The financial trader accused of helping precipitate the “flash crash” will now spend the weekend behind bars, having been unable to pay £5.05m bail.

He faces extradition to the US on Department of Justice charges which carry a maximum sentence of 380 years if he is found guilty

Among the Deutsche Bank AG traders whose e-mails were made public when the lender was fined a record $2.5 billion for rigging Libor, one stands out.

“LETS TAKE THEM ON !!” he said in a Sept. 21, 2005, message to a rate-submitter at Deutsche Bank, according to the bank’s settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services, which described Bittar by his title. The rival bank “IS DOIN IT ON PURPOSE BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE EXACT OPPOSITE POSITION.”

“Ok, let’s see if we can hurt them a little bit more then,” the submitter replied

This Is the Trader Behind Some of Deutsche Bank's Most Embarrassing Messages

Yes, The Onion
dc CB 20:17 GMT 04/24/2015
Saying the company has received hundreds of résumés since posting the job opening to its website earlier this week, Goldman Sachs human resources manager David Browning reported Thursday that a high-level position with the investment bank had attracted applications from every official in the United States Treasury Department. “Within just minutes of listing the open position on our jobs page, the flood of applications from email addresses started rolling in, and it hasn’t slowed down since,”

most of the Treasury regulators who applied for the job highlighted their previous experience working closely with Wall Street financial firms and included a letter of recommendation from former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

the new hire was needed to take over the responsibilities of a former Goldman Sachs executive who had recently left for a high-ranking position in the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Entire Treasury Department Competing For Same Goldman Sachs Job Opening

CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

dc CB 19:35 GMT 04/24/2015

Mtl JP 18:58 GMT
huh .. no friends ... ?

We Got Him!!!!!!

As Seen

Greece Blinks
Paris ib 19:18 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
CB FWIW I don't think Varafoukis is doing a good job for the Greek people. He might not be in it for the money. Who knows? But he certainly seems to be in it for the fame. I don't know enough about his background to know who pulls his strings but judging on results he's not someone I think particularly highly of.

dc CB 19:08 GMT 04/24/2015
Bears repeating

The Law of Large Numbers


Greece Blinks
dc CB 19:04 GMT 04/24/2015
maybe Greece will sell itself to the Russians..can U Say Pipeline.

(Just like Bill and Hillary did with the USA's uranium...2016 will be interesting)

NYTIMES Ed Board: Nothing illegal has been alleged about the foundation.......There is no indication that Mrs. Clinton played a role in the uranium deal’s eventual approval by a cabinet-level committee. ...It’s an axiom in politics that money always creates important friendships

Show US the Emails....LOL ....Poof they're gone....sowwwweeee.

Can't wait to see what side the Washington(Bezos) Post comes down on.

And hey, you watch that spoofing in your mama's basement...NANEX is on it.

Cash Flowed to Clinton Foundation Amid Russian Uranium Deal

Poloz on the record
Mtl JP 18:44 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
Poloz Says Canada Oil-Shock Effects to Turn Positive in 2nd Half BBRG

... “Starting in the second quarter we think the positives will be more important than the negatives, and certainly in the second half of this year, this shock should be fully behind us.” .../..

Livingston nh 18:38 GMT 04/24/2015
SPX and Nasdaq have good weeks so far but DJI, RUT and DJT (an index that didn't get the memo about oil until yesterday) not so much - no new highs so there is a split market which may show up into today's close // the Fear of Fed should show up soon as folks move towards the door (just in case)

Greece Blinks
Livingston nh 18:18 GMT 04/24/2015
CB - the Award is not based or even intent - it's based oninability to perform as billed (competence to task) // Greece has the advantage of splitting the Troika by playing different interests - time doesn't favor the Greeks so negotiation served no purpose

You need a PLAN and Hope is not a Plan

Greece Blinks
dc CB 18:11 GMT 04/24/2015

He may have failed, but I doubt he lied -- lies that got millions killed, nor do I think he is duplicitous (Yellen) who portends to care while literally starving the elderly.

I could be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

I'm not in-love with the guy, but he does speak truth to power, unlike the others who speak what power want them to say.

Greece Blinks
Livingston nh 17:48 GMT 04/24/2015

CB - Varoufakis is a prime contender for the AHNC (All Hat, No Cattle) award (the much coveted Golden Sombrero) along with Yellen and some minor political figures -- either or both of the current leaders can disqualify themselves with an act commensurate w/ their talk

Varoufakis missed his opportunity earlier when the Good Cop Bad Cop card should have been played - now it is a question of the Troika Bad Guy who appears to be Draghi -- IMF is powerless and EU Council is too prone to further consults so it falls to the ECB to test the Greeks // Capital controls to stop the EUR drain in Greece could be tied to a EU withdrawal deadline (your money or your life) BUT ... only talk from Greece so far

We shall see if he or his mates have a PLAN - it appears not, hence, his Frontrunner Status (see below for a picture of the Award and a recipient at its presentation ceremony some years ago)

Today's Spoofing, as shown by NANEX
dc CB 17:39 GMT 04/24/2015

here is some very clear evidence (courtesy of Nanex) showing "spoofing" - the very charge that Sarao is being scapegoated on - occurring twice in the space of a few minutes this morning...

Then again, we are certain that you have all this data already and are already preparing the case against the perpetrator(s)

Dear CFTC... Here Is Today's Illegal S&P 500 "Spoofing"

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 17:22 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
*First cut of Q1 UK GDP data to show growth well short of pace implied by surveys •FOMC’s take on Q1 data softness key for markets, but no change in policy expected •Eurozone deflation impulse fading, as Greek situation continues to fester ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - A PRE-ELECTION SOFT PATCH

Greece Blinks
dc CB 17:20 GMT 04/24/2015
Paris ib 14:42 GMT
So they patch it up. Varafoukis is the fly in the ointment. Some suggest he is on the Soros payroll. (What someone else?) So Varafoukis drags things on for as long as he is able. (Which is what he is paid for.)

fwiw, I've been following Varafoukis, via his blogs and his interviews on Max Keiser, for years. If he could, he would like to pull an Iceland on the ECB and the Banks that have raped - his thinking - Greece. That is what the present Gov was elected to do. If he/they fail, he'll just get another academic postion...albiet better paid thanks to his experience. But I don't think he'll cave to the Bankers.

But, frankly, you do know that Greece was set-up to fail, don't you? And by dissing Varafoukis, aren't you siding with those who, as your regular postings here imply, you believe are corrupt. Or are you so cynical that you can no longer recognize someone who is not just in-it-for-the-money.

Mtl JP 17:00 GMT 04/24/2015  - My Profile
apparently Greek 2-yr yields 25.5%

dc CB 16:54 GMT 04/24/2015

Yes in Honor of the Naz rocketing --- back to 2000 high.

Amazon -- PE 860

Next Page


Is the Dollar Bull Run Over?

BEWARE: Forex Price Volatility Is On The Rise

Red Light, Green Light 1-2-3

Max McKegg's EURUSD FX Forecast

Is it Time to Consider Trading Binary Options?


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