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Grave threats by Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia
HK RF@ 11:02 GMT 04/19/2014

"Hopefully, if those people are ready to leave the buildings, to surrender weapons, today, tomorrow, so we can encourage the OSCE mission to negotiate, to mediate and implement this. But if this will not start in a few days, I think that after Easter there will more concrete actions."

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:47 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
John, my view

1) Market is bearish on JPY and bullish USDJPY even though USD is so far down this year. JPY buying has been liquidating positions and not reversing to long side. My guess is core USDJPY longs are hanging in looking for 105-110. What has frustrated JPY bears is no hint yet from BoJ of more easing. If 102 becomes support then USDJPY bulls will look for eventual move back to 105.

2) EURUSD has gone nowhere so far this year (2013 close 1.3773) and high (1.3967) is probably in for the year so risk is for a move to a lower range at some stage (needs to establish below 1.38). ECB has made it clear that it will take action by easing policy if EUR goes much higher although actions speak louder than words.. If ECB eases policy take it as a signal it wants a weaker EUR to counter deflationary pressures.

New Russia sanctions threats as Ukraine stalemate goes on
GVI Forex 10:27 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
(Reuters) - A day after an international deal in Geneva to defuse the East-West crisis in Ukraine, pro-Russian separatists vowed not to end their occupation of public buildings and Washington threatened further sanctions on Moscow if the stalemate continued.

New Russia sanctions threats as Ukraine stalemate goes on

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 10:23 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
Im trying to figure out why positions in USDJPY in the COT are so skewed to the long USD side when if you look at a bar chart with moving averages (20-50-100-200 days) are almost dead flat?
Makes no sense to me.

By way of contrast, the EURUSD positioning is a lot less "unbalanced", but the moving average lines are all skewed upward, with the exception of the 20-day average which has gone flat.

What I am wondering is are the "fundamentals" at work here or is it something else? Is the USDJPY chart telling us that a weaker JPY is "inevitable" and the EURUSD positioning telling us that the EURUSD cannot be sustained?

The two set of charts COT and Moving Averages are telling strategic traders a story that coincide with what the longer term fundamentals tend to support.

How do we test this view via the price action? Also, more importantly, how do we know when its gone wrong?

Relaxing story
CH Xing 08:44 GMT 04/19/2014
Story time

story time

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:54 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
As John posted on GVI Forex

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:19 GMT 04/18/2014 - My Profile
Our last five EURUSD closes
M 1.3820
T 1.3813
W 1.3813
T 1.3814
F 1.3818

Long Weekend Reads
Mtl JP 01:44 GMT 04/19/2014  - My Profile
dc CB that belongs to Mark Twain
Global Financial Stability Report - IMF April 2014

Interesting Figure 1.8 chart, to pick one.

Long Weekend Reads
dc CB 00:48 GMT 04/19/2014
pls for give the tyypoes

Long Weekend Reads
dc CB 00:39 GMT 04/19/2014
History dosen't repeat...but it rhymes..(annon)


There couldn't possibly be another war, Norman Angell was sure of that. His 1911 book The Great Illusion became a wordwide best seller. In 1913... the fourth edition is published.

As ever more vexing noises push their wasy northwards from the Balkans that early summer, the intellectuals in Berlin, Munich and Vienna are abel to calm their nerves by reading the British publicist's book.

In it Angell expounds his theory that the era ow globalization renders world wars impossible, becaue all countries are now economically interlinked to such a high degree. He also says that, alsongside the economic networks, close international ties in communication and abovee all in the world of finance mean that any war would be preposterous. He argues that, even if the German military wanted to pit its strength against England, there is 'no establishment of significance in Germany, which would ot suffer greatly'. This he claims would prevent war, because 'the entire German finacial world would exert its influence over the German government, thereby putting atop to a situation which would be ruinous for German trade'.

the President of Stanford University, utters these great words.....'The Great WAr in Europe, that eternal threat. will never come. The bankers won't come up with the money needed for such a war, and industry won't support it, so the statemen simply won't be able to do it. There will be no Great War'

p129, 1913 The Year Before the Storm, Florian Illies

Obama is a SISI (VIDEO)
HK RF@ 15:01 GMT 04/18/2014


Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 13:11 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Good Friday FX Market
London Misha 13:09 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
Just in case anyone needs levels on majors today as we go into the New York market (on the wide!).

EURUSD 1.3819 - 1.3921
USDJPY 102.36 - 102.39
GBPUSD 1.6788 - 1.6793
USDCHF 0.8824 - 0.8829
AUDUSD 0.9333 - 0.9339
USDCAD 1.1012 - 1.1017

Happy Easter!

HK RF@ 12:26 GMT 04/18/2014

SBU ramping up security operations in Kharkiv Oblast, plans to cordon off separatists in Donetsk; insurgents in Donetsk refuse to surrender occupied buildings

Amsterdam Purk 11:24 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
Good day, nice ranges today. Expect range expansion next couple of weeks in e/u.
Money maker: e/try/ special thanks to Dil. Money and mouth....

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 11:16 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
US recovery signals remain mixed, as Yellen re-emphasises dovish stance

• Peripheral European bond markets surge on hopes of ECB stimulus; PMIs watched

• Late Easter to weigh on UK retail sales, but strong labour market data dominate


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 11:12 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
FX markets were little changed as European participant were out for the Good Friday holiday. Overall looking ahead markets will gauge the April CPI and, the value of the EUR as extremely important bellwether to the outlook for easing at the ECB. EU Market Update: EU Commisison said to consider an extension to France on deficit; Markets quiet for long holiday weekend

GVI Forex Blog 08:12 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
- (CN) CHINA MAR NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 56 OF 70 CITIES V 57 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 69 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN FEB TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: -1.0% V +0.2%E (biggest de Asian Market Update: China property prices slow further; Four-party talks on Ukraine reach agreement on de-escalation** - Source

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 04:59 GMT 04/18/2014  - My Profile
Obama: Russia doesn’t want ‘any kind of military confrontation with us’ - washingtonpost

"They’re not interested in any kind of military confrontation with us, understanding that our conventional forces are significantly superior to the Russians. We don’t need a war," Obama said

my analysis, 10.26 Jakarta Time
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 03:27 GMT 04/18/2014

raden mas

my analysis
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 02:17 GMT 04/18/2014

raden mas

3 for the price of 1
ithaca sjm 02:17 GMT 04/18/2014
sell euro/cad, sell stg/cad, buy aud/nZ$. Three trades for a 3 month time frame. monthly rsi trade. check it once a week.

AceTrader Apr 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:13 GMT 04/18/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

18 Apr 2014 01:29GMT

USD/JPY - 102.50.. Japan's FinMin Taro Aso who said Japanese govt's June growth strategy will include GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund, the pension fund for Japanese public sector employees).

In Thur's NY session, Japan's 5th largest life insurer, Mitsui Life Insurance, plans to increase its yen bond holdings by about 100 bln yen ($97 mil) in the financial year to March, its investment planning manager said on Thur.
Yoichiro Matsuta, the head of investment planning depart., told a news conference that the company also plans to raise its foreign bond holdings by about 50 bln yen, including those with n without currency-hedging.

18 Apr 2014 01:18GMT
USD/JPY - 102.53.. Usd regained traction in Thur's NY session as release of upbeat U.S. data lent support to the greenback. Later, breaking news of a joint statement following 4-way talks in Geneva on the crisis in Ukraine ended with an accord which was aimed at taking the first steps of reducing recent tensions in the conflict (see our update at 16:42GMT) boosted risk sentiment, dlr rallied broadly, the pair climbed abv Wed's 102.37 high to 102.47. Another wave of st speculative buying in the dlr emerged at Tokyo open as the Nikkei continues its near term upmove, dlr hit an intra-day high of 102.57.

Despite intra-day resumption of this week's erratic upmove, beware of a swift pullback in this holiday-thinned Tokyo session as literally all key centres are closed for the Easter Friday holiday, so intra-day volatility may increase when Tokyo market ends.

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 21:59 GMT 04/17/2014  - My Profile
tky. crude probably tells the best story

Fixed Income Snapshot
nw kw 21:41 GMT 04/17/2014
gbp can move us bond

nw kw 21:38 GMT 04/17/2014

see it in chart but gbp/aud reversing .8 and g/cat strong

nw kw 21:32 GMT 04/17/2014
xaugbp strongest so then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP

tracking gbp in new week, BoE april.23

Cambridge Joe 21:19 GMT 04/17/2014
Looks to me like oil is still very high. Wednesday Thursday sees a significant turn south IMO.

Perhaps conflict is still only at the rumour stage. (rumor) !

Global Markets News
Cambridge Joe 21:08 GMT 04/17/2014
CB Good and valid points well made.

I was thinking on a smaller scale ie. a position floating at the time of a suspension assuming zero notice period, would remain in stasis until the market re-opened.

A gap of a few hundred pips, or more, would have no respect for a stop-loss.

That said, these gaps always seem to respect TPs.... Hmmmm.

Funny that !

Global Markets News
dc CB 20:33 GMT 04/17/2014

I'm less worried about a shootin war that will shut down the markets...than a cyber war that will "take out" some important thingie...that then will shut down the markets along with communications - so I won't even know the markets are shut, along my ability to grind coffee beans in the AM...get water from my well.

Global Markets News
Cambridge Joe 20:12 GMT 04/17/2014
CB just a quick point before some rest, if it does go septic over UKR, the markets might well be shut down / suspended....

Peace out .

Global Markets News
dc CB 20:09 GMT 04/17/2014

In 50 Years, when the students open up their history books, I want them to be reading my name. And not just for being the First Black President of the USA.

Barack Obama

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT 04/17/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Global Markets News
dc CB 19:23 GMT 04/17/2014

So it seems like the US Bond market woke up today and said "Who TF is going to pay for this new Obama War...with the F&*&in Ruskies". Hey Ketchup much you gonna kick in?

Grandma 'splain it to me pleeeze!

GL to anyone trading on "the day we hung Him on the Cross"


Long Weekend Reads
dc CB 19:16 GMT 04/17/2014
The Sleepwalkers: How Europe went to war in 1914
Christopher Clark

1913 The Year Before the Storm
Florian Illies

Global Markets News
dc CB 18:53 GMT 04/17/2014

Mtl JP 17:55 GMT
dc CB did the 4-some have their pressconf finally ?

yes, just after 1:00 ET...that's when those Kerry quotes hit

(they left out the Andri remark which of course was censored in the US: "Dude your face is pulled so tight, but we can all see the folds on your neck")

But according to RT, it was all for nought.

Kiev: Military operation in Ukraine southeast to go on despite Geneva agreement

Fixed Income Snapshot
GVI Forex john 18:27 GMT 04/17/2014  - My Profile
Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are ending weaker in response the equity rallies. It is looking like another short squeeze? The peripheral European bond prices are mixed.

European bourses closied higher. U.S. bourses are stronger. Far East stock markets closed mixed earlier. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.72%, +8 bp.

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:55 GMT 04/17/2014  - My Profile
dc CB did the 4-some have their pressconf finally ?
Canada's PM Harper is sending 6 F-18s and 20 military "advisor's to NATO european HQ.

london red 17:11 GMT 04/17/2014
usdjpy res 44 55 ultimately 84 should cap if 101 to stay within view. If higher then 104.50 will be possible.

Global Markets News
dc CB 17:11 GMT 04/17/2014
no more reason to run for "safe havens" ...oh and so much for $105 oil...


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 17:01 GMT 04/17/2014  - My Profile

April 17, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 18. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- Commitment of Traders Report.

Cambridge Joe 16:39 GMT 04/17/2014

Cambridge Joe 08:02:47 GMT - 04/17/2014
Eurusd softer going forward and across into the new trading week.... !! IMO. GL


That's more or less what I had in mind.... more to follow in the new trading period I believe... GL GT & good a Easter break to all.

tokyo ginko 16:38 GMT 04/17/2014
usd across the board, strengthening into the long weekend, perhaps some short covering or safe haven movement..

April 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
dc CB 16:33 GMT 04/17/2014

EKG reading today is getting back to where Gammy said ---Oh about 6 months!===
They brouhgt in the crash cart and yelled Clear a bunch of times.
And the family ---but Gammy didn't really mean it---Gammy dosen't really want to kill us.
Gammy dosen't want to see it flatlines.

And this morning, up in Canuck land, they peered over the snowpile and saw INFLATION!!!!

Global Markets News
GVI Forex 16:31 GMT 04/17/2014
Bond yields up, dollar up

4/17/2014 12:16:25 PM (UR) Four-party talks on Ukraine in Geneva joint statement: Approves initial steps to de-escalate situation in Ukraine; illegal armed groups should be disarmed
- Parties have agreed to continue to meet in other formats

Russia Foreign Min Lavrov:
- Ukraine buildings must be freed
- Parties call for dialog
- OSCE will expand its monitoring mission in Ukraine
- There must be constitutional change in Ukraine
- Ukrainians must resolve the crisis themselves
- Russia wants broader authority for Ukraine regions and more scope for Russian language in Ukraine

- Note: The US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU are discussing Ukraine today in Geneva.

- Source

Your Best Trade of the Day
Mtl JP 16:28 GMT 04/17/2014  - My Profile
sl 102.325 hit

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:49 GMT 04/17/2014  - My Profile
The FX market has been pretty quiet heading into the Easter holiday, even in the wake of the negative German March PPI reading. This marks the third consecutive month that German PPI has been flat or down, which bodes ill for the threat of deflation. EUR/USD barely reacted and pivoted around 1.3837 overnight. US Market Update: Markets Calm Ahead of Easter Holiday

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