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FOREX FORUM
31/10/14 20:30 US COT Report con: n/a pre: n/a
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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 20:23 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
CLOSING VALUES....




Support for Swiss gold referendum falls in latest poll
HK RF@ 20:16 GMT 10/31/2014


By REUTERS
PUBLISHED: 11:21 GMT, 31 October 2014 - UPDATED: 11:21 GMT, 31 October 2014

ZURICH, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Support for a proposal to prohibit the Swiss National Bank from selling any of its gold reserves has waned, according to a poll published on Friday by the free Swiss newspaper 20 Minuten.
The right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP) has put forward a popular initiative called "Save our Swiss gold" which aims to prevent the central bank from offloading its gold reserves, obliging it to hold at least 20 percent of its assets in gold.
The initiative has sent jitters through both the gold and currency markets, since it would require the SNB to massively bolster its holdings of the precious metal.
Such a buying spree could push gold prices significantly higher, market watchers say. It could also endanger the central bank's three-year-old cap on the franc's value against the euro, by giving the bank less flexibility to buy foreign currency to defend the minimum exchange rate.
The SNB said on Friday euro-denominated assets made up 41 percent of its balance sheet compared with the 7 percent it currently holds in gold.
The poll showed 38 percent of respondents were in favor of the initiative, down from support of 45 percent in a poll in the paper last week. Some 47 percent of those survey opposed the proposals, while 15 percent remained undecided.
The authors of Friday's poll said the survey was conducted online on Oct. 27 with 12,491 voters. Results were then weighted by voter demographics, geography and other political variables in order to better represent the Swiss voting population.
Still, the method of polling is seen as less reliable than that of Berne-based research and polling institute gfs.bern, which published a survey last Friday showing the gold initiative had the support of 44 percent of the public


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2815635/Support-Swiss-gold-referendum-falls-latest-poll.html#ixzz3HkuMHWzb
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CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:57 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT
GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader

Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details





Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 18:51 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
•US payrolls to set tone for interest rates expectations

•No policy changes expected for BoE or ECB policy meetings

•UK data watched for indications that economic growth is slowing

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US PAYROLLS WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF FURTHER LABOUR MARKET TIGHTENING


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 18:46 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.330% +1.1bp
DJ +160
SP +18

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex 18:40 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Virgin Galactic said its SpaceShipTwo rocket plane suffered an "in-flight anomaly" during a powered test flight on Friday — and other sources said ...

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 17:54 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Next Tuesday 4 November
1/3 of the Senate is up for election
entre House is in play

Current forecasts favor Republicans taking control of the Senate by a small margin. Many races are very very close so any result is possible

Republicans are expected to increase their control of the House and pick up a few seats.

Bottom line, Obama could face a hostile legislature in his final two years.



One week from today. She could touch on policy

November 7 Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Policy Since the Onset of the Financial Crisis
At the International Symposium of the Banque de France: Central Banking: The Way Forward?, Paris, France
10:15 a.m. ET

eurusd
Prague JIT 17:18 GMT 10/31/2014
To Tallinn/viies: Hi, old friend. Have you any idea about usd/rub? I took auto-contra-trade above 43 two days ago and got good amm. of pips. Thank you. Regards. :-)

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex 17:08 GMT 10/31/2014
10-yr 2.337 +1.8bp
SP +20
DJIA +174

Strong Friday afternoon trade.




Referendum Could Force Central Bank to Buy Gold and Never Sell
dc CB 16:23 GMT 10/31/2014
yeh that's why Comex Gold and Silver are getting pounded today.

GVI Forex Blog 16:15 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
October 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Mfg PMI CN- PMIs, EZ- Mfg PMI's CH- PMI, GB- PMI, CA- PMI, US- PMI's

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 3, 2014


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 16:13 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile


October 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Mfg PMI CN- PMIs, EZ- Mfg PMI's CH- PMI, GB- PMI, CA- PMI, US- PMI's
  • Far East: AU- Mfg PMI CN- PMIs
  • Europe: EZ- Mfg PMI's CH- PMI, GB- PMI
  • North America: CA- PMI, US- PMI's, Consumer Spending



Great Rotation???
Livingston nh 16:05 GMT 10/31/2014
BoJ and Gov Pension Fund add new deck chairs and reorganize their arrangement -- is this the beginning of the Great Rotation out of bonds into stox? -- $200 bio directly into non Japanese stock markets and just in time - all of that has to be converted from yen into some other currencies -- I mentioned no new money into the stox rally but there should be some floating this way soon - meanwhile, some folks might like to buy now so sell FI and buy, buy, buy equities

Hmmm, and I thought the Japanese economy was the problem - I'm sure it will be different this time

Of Endurance of Debt
Mtl JP 15:52 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Britain to repay First World War bonds

LONDON—The U.K. treasury plans to repay part of the debt issued to finance Britain’s role in the World War I.

The treasury said Friday that it would on Feb. 1 repay bonds worth £218 million ($348.8 million) that were issued by Winston Churchill in 1927 to refinance debts the U.K. racked up during the four-year conflict, which claimed millions of lives. .../..
-
side note / US 30-yr treasury note currently pays 3%... pre-tax.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile

16:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Late in Europe, markets are in a RISK-ON  posture following the policy easing by the Bank of Japan overnight . In response, the JPY is sharply weaker on the news and equities have soared.  Markets are also now hoping for ease from the ECB Thursday. In the Far East, equities ended higher.  European bourses are ending up sharply as well. U.S. share futures are higher at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are higher on data. 10-yr bund yields are down sharply and gilts yields are easier. Peripheral European bond yields are mixed. Political instability see Higher Greek yields



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.



eurusd
Provo John 15:45 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
As this came across the newswire, eur$ stopped dead in it's tracks and reversed...

ECB sources say eur 3trl balance sheet target is not on the cards,. says FED has noticed eur slide and ECB must not push too far.

This may just stall things considering it is Friday. Books profits and take you ball home.

eurusd
GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Yes. I would guess their major sales would probably come from the excess EUR they have accumulated supporting the EURCHF cross at 120.00??

eurusd
Tallinn viies 15:26 GMT 10/31/2014
GVI Forex john 15:20 GMT - as I understand people are afraid that if they need to buy gold then they need to sell euro.

Referendum Could Force Central Bank to Buy Gold and Never Sell
GVI Forex john 15:20 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
National referendum on November 30

"...a ruling in favor of the motion would force the Swiss National Bank to hold some 20% of its about $547 billion assets in the precious metal, returning to the weighting it last held in gold in 2008."

Markets Nervous Ahead of Swiss Gold Vote


PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Mtl JP 15:09 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
short-term , if you want to go long euro, wait for >1.2535+

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD last ~1.2505

S1 1.2561 broken
S2 1.2509 clearly breached but currently in play
S3 1.2470 holding (LOD 1.2486)

Let's see what happens with S3 thats the 5% trade. I don't know what's going to happen but I exclude nothing.



The key play for the first part of the new week will be the set-uo fir the ECB on Thursday. Will Super-Mario capitulate next? My guess is that many will want to be short EURUSD in the lead up into the meeting. Sometimes you can position for the ANTICIPATION rather than the actual event.

Thoughts?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
london red 14:46 GMT 10/31/2014
yen.might stall at 62/68. anything abv 80 targets 114.66

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 14:19 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.328% +0.9
SP +19

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final data revised up from strong preliminary.






BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final October 2014




ALERT
86.9 vs. 86.4 exp. vs. 86.4 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex 13:54 GMT 10/31/2014
Clearly Chicago PMI outperformed

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Chicago PMI September 2014




ALERT
66.2 vs. 59.5 exp. vs. 60.5 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



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Chicago PMI
GVI Forex 13:44 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Said to be above consensus - it gets released to subscribers early

HALLOWEEN
dc CB 13:42 GMT 10/31/2014
Nikkei futures halted limit up

CME tweet


buy usdjpy
jkt abel 13:30 GMT 10/31/2014
so euro below 1.25 so forget about 105-110 usdjpy, 110-120 welcome

USDCAD
london red 13:19 GMT 10/31/2014
cad can go a long way. res 93 1315. hope for pullbacks there if not yet long. support 43. but i doubt there will be many pullbacks today. plenty of short calls throughout the week so theyll be buying every dip however small. absolutely no reason to be long cad.

USDCAD
GVI Forex 13:14 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Oil down => CAD finally paid notice

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
london red 13:14 GMT 10/31/2014
treasuries slightly left behind. dec 10 needs to move below 126.16 to give buck a further boost and i suspect euro will at least test the figure. said to be some month end buying might surface prior to the fix but barrier under pressure no doubt about it.

BREAKING NEWS
NY JM 13:12 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
I call this using crosses to trade spot 101:

What was holding up the other currencies was offsets from JPY crosses. When the JIY crosses paused, other currencies lost their bids.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 13:05 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.344% +2.5
SP +22

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:42 GMT 10/31/2014
euro. sup 47, below there risk to 15/00
cad. first support 38/43. if stays abv there can move much higher. watch oil.

HALLOWEEN
dc CB 12:40 GMT 10/31/2014
I always thought that Gammy would make this run happen, but maybe she came to the party dressed as KURODA

emni new high


17400-Dow... may result to some correction.
HK RF@ 12:34 GMT 10/31/2014
.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile

Canada: GDP August 2014





ALERT
m/m -0.10% vs.0.00% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator September 2014




ALERT
Personal Income +0.20% v +0.30% exp v +0.20% pre
PCE Defl +1.40% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer



AUDUSD 0.8880 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 11:55 GMT 10/31/2014


Amman wfakhoury 19:14 GMT October 29, 2014
AUDUSD 0.8888 confirmed : Reply
AUDUSD 0.8888 confirmed will be reached..starting and return level 0.8800 and decline below it will return to it.

___________________________
Check how many time price returned to 0.8800


yen
jkt abel 11:34 GMT 10/31/2014
shanghai bc, if you are around, usdjpy is now above 110 does that mean euro will go below 1.25 soon also?

yen
london red 11:24 GMT 10/31/2014
my thoughts are for intraday. maybe some sideways trade between 11128/67 if supports get done. for now its strongly bid and the first support at 67 has yielded a reasonable bounce, lets see if they can move it thru the trendline or if they flip it back lower. if they can break higher youve got a trade to hold onto, if not your rushing to locking in profit.
as for 110 if we see that today then we've got a top and theres nothing to warrant that. market never reverses a move like this morning to go back up again. as for buying the prev high its a good strat only theres going to plenty of folk jumping in earlier, so not sure we'll see that level until the dusts settles and even then its going to need some bad news from either the US or some kind of skirmish/ebola.

yen
jkt abel 11:00 GMT 10/31/2014
red, what sort of consolidation you think? 110-112?

yen
london red 10:57 GMT 10/31/2014
daily trendline at 111.82 done just enough to hamper. support 67 and 50. if below there period of consolidation.

Where's Ginko?
manila tom 10:28 GMT 10/31/2014
where is Soros now? reversing his negative view on stocks?

Where's Ginko?
manila tom 10:25 GMT 10/31/2014
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

so usdjpy heading to 120 with 110 being support?

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:23 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Policy divergence among the G3 central banks has kept the USD on a firm tone. The surprise additional easing from the BOJ sent the USD/JPY above the 111.50 for a 7-year high. The BoJ shocked markets with expansion in annual asset purchases from ¥50B to ¥80B coupled with tripling in its purchases of exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Monetary policy divergence intensifies as BOJ eases further



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