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Recission Yields a Culture of Savers
Livingston nh 18:13 GMT 05/30/2015
The "savers" are paying down hi-priced plastic debt rather than increasing liquid savings - the traditional saver with a monetary goal is forced to save more to compensate for the Fed's idiotic ZIRP // let's see - inflation target 2%, 2 yr CD 0.375%, 2yr Treasury 0.625% -- sounds like a great deal

The interest rate portion of Personal Income is declining in every report --- outside of TBTF banks the industry is being punished and the economy is being restrained // sorry to keep beating up on the STUPID; it's not even fun anymore

Recission Yields a Culture of Savers
dc CB 15:38 GMT 05/30/2015

The Wash(BEZOS)Post, (see pix for Postion of story on Front Page), seems to regurgitate the old Greenspan Chestnut that "the problem with the economy is SAVERS".

The 2 "reporters" delve into this puzzle.

If there was any time for American consumers to feel good, it would be this moment. Job growth is brisk. Paychecks are finally nudging up. And a surprise drop in gas prices has given the average household an extra $700 a year.

But six years after the end of the Great Recession, Americans are startlingly anxious about their economic prospects. They are sitting on their money in a way that suggests that the consumer psychology may have fundamentally changed, with people less willing to spend than they were during other periods of economic prosperity.

Why don’t Americans feel better about the economy?

Livingston nh 15:26 GMT 05/30/2015
Since early yesterday the Greek-EU negotiations have been off the news media radar --- another kick the can solution might pop the EUR but with the half-life of a fruit fly // if the Greeks manage to pay off IMF thru June the next couple of months has the ECB in line with its hand out for its bond redemptions

When the current schedule of EU payments to Greece was set there was an optimistic expectation that things would improve -- the reality is that things are worsening by the day -- the current schedule does not provide enough money
to keep this Ponzi scheme going through the Summer // both sides know this simple math so any news about Greek austerity promises and the release of the next tranche is just Ninety Miles An Hour Down A Dead End Street --- NEW money or NO money is the only way out

May U.S. Jobs Data Pivotal: Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 10:15 GMT 05/30/2015  - My Profile

John M. Bland

Economic Prospects Improving?
Increasingly, it appears that markets, and the Fed may be looking beyond mixed U.S. data to a strong recovery later in the year. These data have yet to materialize, but recent data have not been as weak as they had been a month or so ago. I would would characterize them currently as "mixed"...

May U.S. Jobs Data Pivotal: Week Ahead

Saxo Bank - SNB effects
Budapest Szeri 08:25 GMT 05/30/2015
I already shared some information about the case, but now I managed to sum up my story in a short video on youtube.
If you are interested, the link is the following:

EURO FOR 1.1130/40 next week.
jkt abel 05:11 GMT 05/30/2015
i dont like getting too much ahead of the market on a weekend
and when reading too many posts about euro being bullish on the forum makes one wonder if it is the opposite that will happen....

dc CB 00:43 GMT 05/30/2015
As we mentioned last week, global central banks have cut rates 572 times since Lehman or, once every three days.

El Mihdawy, who once dreamed of becoming a professional tennis player, now works on Cantor Fitzgerald LP’s equity derivatives desk after joining the firm in 2009. That’s the same year Harvard University graduate Ezra Rapoport was venturing into finance, signing on with Transmarket Group to automate the firm’s bond-trading platform.

Rapoport embodies Wall Street’s evolution in more ways than one, including how computers dominate functions that used to be done by humans. Now 31, he’s a trader at Flammarion Capital Partners, a New York-based firm that makes markets in fixed-income futures through automated programs.

Everyone at Flammarion is in their 20s or 30s, he said.

Just as we noted back in December, this is the future of "trading": 25-year-olds mining data faster than a fat finger can press buy. Draw your own conclusions about what this means for volatility in a rising rate environment.

For more perspective on rising rates and inexperienced traders, see the following interview with DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach. Here are a few excerpts:

A Generation Of Rate-Hike Rookies Makes Jeff Gundlach Nervous

Mtl JP 23:02 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I have a hard time accepting the FED is intimidated by the power of the algos that do whatever they can. Yellen could simply macroprudentially get rid of them: she has the rule and legislative power. It just may be that the market is bigger and more powerful than the FED.
Would that be a novel idea ?

GVI Forex john 22:52 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I've been through no end to rate hikes over the years. The markets get over whatever the Fed does in a remarkably fast period of time. The only difference now is the power of the algos that do whatever they can to exploit (or create) volatility for a short while.

Mtl JP 22:41 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
john you don't see it because it is not there. rate hike is not about some economy being able to take it or not. if it were , a 0.1 or .25 hike would have been done and hardly anyone would have noticed.

It is about the potential risk of melting financial and banking markets
it is why the FEDs are so cowardly about and with it
"We can and must safeguard the financial system" said Janet

When you will have figured out that the financial system has been able to build and immunize itself up from a rate hike induced meltdown , and the FED gang agrees, probably then u will see rates rise.

GVIForex john 22:21 GMT 05/29/2015
JP -- I don't see how, after the dust settles, a 25 bp hike will impact the economy.

EURO FOR 1.1130/40 next week.
HK RF@ 21:34 GMT 05/29/2015

Probably no accidents, as Obama(US), will save the world again, first time since WWII.

Mtl JP 21:31 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
john 14:52 re "Will the Fed just ignore the data and tighten anyway?"
one could chuckle or one could pause and consider
Twitter has #AdviceforYoungTraders who’ve never seen a Fed rate hike

and note one of the article comments by Little Spacey:
“if you’re afraid — don’t do it" is the Fed's motto, so don't hold your breath waiting for them to hike rates
good week-end to all

Mtl JP 20:48 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I admit to an uneasy contradiction between eyeballing a potential euro up-side rally on 50dma and ECB flooding market with 100 billion/month fiat euro (up from 60bln/m - a 66.6% boost)

Mtl JP 20:36 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
U.S. - (that would be Jack Lew) - warns G7 of global economy 'accident' without Greece deal rtrs

Jack seems to be attached to the word "accident": "I think waiting until the day or two before whatever the deadline is, is just a way of courting an accident."

Hey Jack... ever hear of "Accident Insurance" ?
If not u might want to consider xau/eur for example.

Mtl JP 20:21 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
euro close above 50dma would bode for uP-side

Paris ib 19:59 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
FWIW This week was the SECOND outside week UP in EUR/AUD in the past five weeks. What does that tell us? AUD to collapse? EURO to rally? Bit of both? We shall see.

CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 19:48 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Roubini is part of the magic kingdom PAR. Wake up.

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 19:47 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
CB well if it makes you feel any better it seems like things are not much different here. False flags, fear mongering, war mongering, increased military spending and military presence, less freedom, more censorship, more surveillance and an administration that is completely corrupt.... from the politicians to the CEOs to the media. Do these morons really think we believe the statistics? I guess they don't care. They live in a completely invented reality, complete with neat little stories in the press. It's surreal. The idea seems to be that if you can pretend you have democracy, together with these tick box elections and no-choice is a good choice politicians, then you can basically do whatever you want once you have been 'elected'.

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
PAR 19:43 GMT 05/29/2015
US economic numbers are one big SCAM. Numbers no longer représente economic réalité but are a kind of Disney world représentation of thé réal world. Roubini Krugman , Schiller and other beautiful minds please speak out ans improve économies beyond thé Magic Kingdom.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:40 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report

Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
dc CB 19:29 GMT 05/29/2015
it's timed for the next election cycle. because the BEA is beyond political influence (gag).

The first Dictator of the USA is waiting patiently in the wings, ready to impliment all the new executive powers that have been incrementally accumulated over the past decade and a half.

See things are getting better because of us: Vote Republican
See things are getting better because of us: Vote Democrat

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 19:18 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
"creating economic growth by statistical manipulation"...

Why on earth bother? Honestly this is so ex Soviet Union. Don't they feel the teeniest bit embarrassed? Slightly too weird for me.

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
dc CB 19:05 GMT 05/29/2015
They are going to do it again at the end of the 2nd Q

• BEA will review all series entering the GDP calculations to identify, and where feasible, mitigate any residual seasonality within its existing seasonal adjustment methodologies.
 • Time frame to implement: Review will take place with the release of second-quarter GDP on July 30. Period covered: 2012, 2013, 2014, and forward.

BEA Works to Mitigate Potential Sources of Residual Seasonality in GDP

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 18:57 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile

•Greek negotiations continue as deadlines for IMF repayments approach
•US payrolls report to show labour market is continuing to tighten
•Euro area CPI to provide further evidence that deflation risks are abating


U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 18:56 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Prior to today's release here was the take on U.S. growth: GDP "is essentially flat... at 0.2 percent. The numbers are actually even worse, if one discounts the redefinitions of GDP that were made by the US in 2013... in effect creating economic growth by statistical manipulation. Those highly questionable 2013 definitional additions to growth added around US$500 billion a year to U.S. growth estimates, or about 0.3 percent of U.S. GDP. Back those redefinitions out, and the U.S. experienced negative GDP four times in the last four years. We get -0.2 percent in 2011, 0 percent in 2012, -2.5 percent in 2014 and -0.1 percent earlier this year."

" the U.S. economy will continue on its 5 year long, stop-go recovery trajectory until the next recession in 2016'....

The good news? Same story worldwide. :-)

The rolling U.S. recession

Crude Up $4.00 off DOE Lows
dc CB 18:55 GMT 05/29/2015
Our calculations along the same lines suggest that applying an additional seasonal adjustment to the BEA’s data results in Q1 real GDP growth of 1.2%. We find that the effect of residual seasonality on GDP estimates has been increasing sharply for over a decade. Of the four major components of GDP, all but one are meaningfully impacted by residual seasonality. For these reasons, the drop-off in estimated Q1 GDP growth has not altered our view that the underlying fundamentals of the economy remain on firm footing.
Joseph A. LaVorgna @Lavorgnanomics

Following weaker than expected retail sales, inventories and housing starts, we marked down our estimate of Q1 #GDP from 3.1% to 2.4%
11:20 AM - 17 Mar 2015

Crude Up $4.00 off DOE Lows
dc CB 18:39 GMT 05/29/2015
5651 on DOE Stocks annc Thurs at 10:30AM
6070 after rig count annc today at 2PM

All on Hope for Liesman's call for another dose Double Seasonal Adjustment, as NuMbErS still don't look that great.

cough cough cough

GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
note Canadian 10-yr yield down 6bp after weak GDP.

GVI Forex john 16:59 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
-- Equities ending the week mostly down (Risk Off)
-- Forex USD mixed
-- Forex EUR up on its crosses
-- Fixed Income yields mostly down (Risk-Off)

GVI Forex john 15:28 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile

May 29, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, June 1, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU/CN- PMI, CH/EZ/GB- PMI, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, PMI, Construction Spending, CA- PMI
  • Far East: AU/CN- PMI
  • Europe: CH/EZ/GB- PMI
  • North America: US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, PMI, Construction Spending, CA- PMI

hk ooozmeeh 15:27 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I dont see euro closing above 1.0967 on (my) daily chart, fwiw

hk ooozmeeh 15:27 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I dont see euro closing above 1.0967 on (my) daily chart, fwiw

Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 15:23 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I ve already pointed out once the importance of 50 day 1.0967 close

so just a repeat, fwiw

SGFX Trading Advice
Singapore SGFXTrader 15:20 GMT 05/29/2015

Entry: Target: Stop:

Trigger stop at 136.3. Re-short at 136.27. Hit TP at 135.88.

39 pips profit.

Eurjpy Trade #1 stop (1): 23pips
Eurjpy Trade #2 stop (2): 19pips

Net loss: 3 pips

Short again at 136.24. TP 135.88. Still open

See attached chart 1-min Eurjpy.

Singapore SGFXTrader 12:58 GMT 05/29/2015
Entry: 136.11 Target: 135.88 Stop: 136.3

Short Eurjpy at current level. Target 135.88.

PAR 15:14 GMT 05/29/2015
PPT joining thé hedge funds. We can close on thé green ans open sharply higher on monday.

Roubini sees ‘pots of money’ being found to help Greece meet IMF deadline
Mtl JP 15:06 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
from your 14:54 link: ...."If Greece fails to meet its payments, “everybody realizes that’s the beginning of a Greek accident that has lots of other collateral damage, not just for Greece but potentially contagion also in financial markets,” Roubini said ...
Perplexing how industry experts can - without threat of resposability and accountability - prance around and contradict one another about contagion.

I want to see one single authority on "contagion". This ying-yanging by opinion spouters is what is causing uncertainty and schizophrenic behaviour in the market.

Just because some of these folks have some acronyms behind their names is a licence to spout willy-nilly opions as "experts". In court of law, an "expert"s statements typically trump statements made by lay folk.

Time is past and overdue for accountability by these "experts" by way of tar n feathers, fines and or prison time.

PAR 15:02 GMT 05/29/2015
Yellen & Bernanke hedge funds buying agressively. Macron - Rothschild buying up thé Cac
Dont spoil thé weekend.

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
first define "tighten"

FED is on record claiming rising rate from 0 to 0.01 is not "tighten"
Market thinks FED just yakking about nominal rate hike IS "tighten"

GVI Forex john 14:52 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Analyst in Chicago on CNBC talking about Chicago PMI says with the last three readings below 50 that there is no doubt that the data are very weak. She does not expect much in 2Q15 GDP and the earliest there can be a recovery(?) is in 4Q15.

Will the Fed just ignore the data and tighten anyway?

Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 14:51 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
breach ? breach has potential to be jubbed like right now if u r already long

so only if price closes above 50dma (50 day 1.0967 from gv chart-points)

Friday's Trading Thread
HK RF@ 14:38 GMT 05/29/2015

A breach of 1.1000, opens clear the way to 1.1130 target!!!

Friday's Trading Thread
HK RF@ 14:27 GMT 05/29/2015

Keep on bombarding the 1.1000, to take it out for a big upmove!!!

Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 14:20 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
what I find perplexing about 1.10 - a round number - is that with all that has been said about stops right on round numbers, that players still use round number levels.

what is (not) going on with that, anyone ?

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