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05/03/15 7:00 B DE Factory Ord yy con: -1.00% pre: 4.80%
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AUD
Syd 02:20 GMT 03/05/2015
RBA's Lowe Says A$ Much Closer to Fair Value Aud popped higher on that

RBNZ
gc sf 02:11 GMT 03/05/2015
says looking at ways to affect Housing -- may create some sort of extra asset class -- and affect capital adequacy requirements.

NZD down AUDNZD bounces again

AUD
GVI Forex 02:09 GMT 03/05/2015  - My Profile
MNI: RBA LOWE: DONT HAVE OBJECTIVE TO PUSH AUD LOWER

MNI: RBA LOWE: I SUSPECT AUD IS STILL TOO HIGH

MNI: RBA LOWE: AUD NOW LOT CLOSER TO FAIR VALUE THAN BEFORE


AceTrader Mar 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:52 GMT 03/05/2015
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Mar 2015 01:41GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro languishes near Wednesday's fresh 11-year trough of 1.1061 in subdued Asian morning as traders sold the single currency ahead of today's ECB monetary meeting.
Reuters reported keen to keep a low profile over the Greek crisis, the ECB will focus on improved growth prospects when it meets today and unveil some but not all the details of its 1 tln euros-plus bond buying plan.

Meeting in Cyprus, the ECB will keep rates on hold, likely lift growth forecasts to reflect a string of positive data surprises but cut inflation projections as it incorporates the full effect of a dramatic oil price fall, backing its case to buy 60 bln euros worth of bonds a month from March to spur inflation.

Markets will be looking for how quantitative easing will work, when the buying will start, whether it applies to paper with negative yields and how the purchases will be distributed along the yield curve.
Anticipation of the QE programme has driven euro zone borrowing costs down to the point where Spain can borrow for 10 years at just 1.3% and investors actually pay for the privilege of lending to Germany for 5 years.
Yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal dropped to record lows this week.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, France unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, Italy GDP, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada Ivey PMI and U.S. jobless claims and factory orders.

GS
gc sf 01:34 GMT 03/05/2015
the RBA guy speaking at GS - mentions further easing may be appropriate

Australia clamps down on illegal foreign housing investment
Syd 00:31 GMT 03/05/2015
Australian authorities are clamping down on wealthy foreigners illegally buying real estate,

Treasurer Joe Hockey on Wednesday said that other properties are under investigation.



Property politics
Syd 00:03 GMT 03/05/2015
The story so far – our tough Treasurer suddenly announced he was forcing the resale of a $39 million Point Piper mansion, Villa del Mare, because the Chinese buyer had broken the law by hiding behind an Australian company to illegally buy an established residence, which they are not allowed to do
Cue outrage from local real estate agents to begin with. They are shocked, truly shocked, claiming they didn't know that skirting the law by putting up an Australian company as an affront was wrong. It seems they are less worried about the law being broken than the government actually enforcing it.

presume FIRB can Google the many other stories from numerous journos and agents listing other law breakers and we will expect to see the Treasurer act on that swiftly. Indeed he said yesterday his office was inundated with calls from dobbers, sorry citizens.


Global-View Trading Systems
Mtl JP 22:53 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
I add a note to the gbpusd 1.5295 Pivot gbp closed under its 1.5280 50dma. Technically, that adds to the bearish angle.
But ... no guarantees, just increased odds.

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 22:19 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 21:35 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile



BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    THURSDAY
    0:30 AU Trade A$bln External accounts
    0:30 AU Retail Sales External accounts
    7:00 DE Factory Orders future demand
    12:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank No rate Change Expected
    13:30 US Weekly Jobless weekly jobs data
    13:30 US Productivity Key to growth
    15:00 CA Ivey PMI Latest view on economy
    15:00 US Factory Orders future production
    15:30 US Nat Gas bcf
    FRIDAY
    7:00 DE Ind Output yy output
    8:15 CH CPI SNB Target
    10:00 EZ GDP mm broadest view of economy
    10:00 EZ GDP yy broadest view of economy
    13:30 CA Trade C$bn external accounts
    13:30 US Unemployment % unemployment rate
    13:30 US Payrolls Key Jobs data
    13:30 US Trade external accounts
    20:30 US COT Report

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.



CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


I Have Had it With Data Leaks and So Should You!
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:36 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile

One of the goals of the Global Traders Association is to fight for a level playing field for all global traders. One of these areas is the fair and timely access to public information and news events. This is any area of great concern as evidence continues to suggest we are not on a level playing field. The latest comes from Australia as price action ahead of RBA monetary policy announcements has the conspiracy theorists up in arms (see below).

I Have Had it With Data Leaks and So Should You!

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 20:06 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
fyi. the Middle Atlantic states are forecast to see another significant snow storm on Thursday. We could see an impact on data releases tomorrow. Washington is incapable of handling any snow.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 19:53 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
dc CB - sometimes, often, zh sensationalizes

Saudi Oil Minister Denies Price War With U.S. Shale - wsj earlier this am
World’s biggest oil exporter says OPEC’s actions have stabilized crude prices

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 19:48 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
yes.. there are green shoots and solid growth but...
nobody is actually sure of what they are seeing.
-
IF things were indeed rosy, Yellen and her gang would not be evasive or gutless as they are.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 19:47 GMT 03/04/2015
with dxy breaking out its time to look at long loonie 123/124, the 200 month at the bottom of that range. FM any of your wisdom here?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
RED- yes right to the point

ECB Thursday. SVC PMIs Mostly Weak. U.S. ADP Payrolls in line.
GVI Forex Blog 19:40 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: AU- Trade, Retail Sales, DE- Factory Orders, EZ- ECB, CA- Ivey PMI, US- Weekly Jobs, Productivity, Factory Orders

ECB Thursday. SVC PMIs Mostly Weak. U.S. ADP Payrolls in line.


BREAKING NEWS
london red 19:39 GMT 03/04/2015
john

Wage pressures remained moderate and were limited largely to workers in skilled occupations

thats all we need to know...and what the nfp will be about on friday, ahe.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 19:27 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
I did not see a "smoking gun" in this report. I think the Fed can use it to justify either a continuation of "patience" or an end to it.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 19:23 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors from early January through mid-February. Six Districts noted that the local economy expanded at a moderate pace since the prior reporting period. Activity rose modestly in Philadelphia and Cleveland, while it increased slightly in Kansas City. Dallas noted a similar pace of growth as in the previous period, while Richmond reported that activity slowed from the modest pace seen in the prior period. Boston noted that business contacts were fairly upbeat this period, notwithstanding the severe weather.

Consumer spending rose in most Districts, and contacts were generally optimistic about near-term sales. Travel and tourism also increased in the reporting Districts. Manufacturing generally posted gains across the Districts, although at varying rates. The demand for nonfinancial services also grew moderately on balance. Home sales increased in most Districts, while reports on residential construction were mixed. Commercial real estate market conditions remained stable or improved across the Districts. Banking conditions generally improved, and credit quality remained largely unchanged. Agricultural conditions generally worsened, and oil and natural gas drilling declined.

Payrolls remained stable or expanded across the Districts, and contacts noted employment gains in a broad range of sectors. Wage pressures remained moderate and were limited largely to workers in skilled occupations. Most District contacts cited only flat to slightly increasing prices.

Beige Book - March 4, 2015


BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 19:10 GMT 03/04/2015
players zzzz

looking at the wrong players. WTI is ripping higher

Chart ZH


BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 19:06 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Beige Book: Growth moderate in six districts, slower in remaining six
Fed Beige Book finds sectors hurt by strong dollar, low oil prices
src.: MarketWatch
-
players zzzz

EUR
gc sf 18:24 GMT 03/04/2015
B/Out selling was triggered @ 1.1136/8 with s/l 1.1158 t/p 1.1045/46

just seems if you look around at all the trade data -- more people sold EURCAD than anything else .. as many Banks posted this trade recommendation.

so there is profit taking to be done at some point.

GBP despite it being lower - don't see the same triggers in place and only range plays still.

The Greece news that there is no 3rd bailout available they have to stick to the terms of the 2nd .. probably made the 1.1150 level trigger out.

Clearing out those Existing Homes ABS Style
Paris ib 18:02 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
CB - looks like nothing was learnt in 2008 except how to repeat it.

Clearing out those Existing Homes ABS Style
dc CB 18:00 GMT 03/04/2015
as I have noted here before, in my area of Maryland ... which recently tallied up the most Millionaries per cap of any state -- though a million bucks ain't what it used to be....as Barron's New Rag PENTA gives advice to those whose Net is $5ml or better... less than $5mil...read the Common Barron's for advice.

Around here there are numerous "existing Homes" with ForSale signs...hanging for 2years. And if you check the RE listings, many others are "near or coming to foreclosure". At the same time farmland is being developed with $500K to $2mln houses.

Somebody has got to get stuck with those unwanted houses...so that NAR can Crow about the Housing Recovery. Millionaire only "suckers" need apply.

And you can bet that Blkstone, Cerberus, and Colony won't be holding any of those ABS's on their books. That was the lesson learned from 2008.

NAZ 5000 wooo wooo wooo

Clearing out those Existing Homes ABS Style
Mtl JP 17:45 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
what could go wrong ?

Clearing out those Existing Homes ABS Style
Paris ib 17:34 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Bundling mortgages into bonds and then selling them off to investors. Where have I heard that before?

Didn't most of that stuff (mortgage backed securities no one wanted) end up with the FED during the last incarnation of QE?

And there is Deutsche Bank again.

Clearing out those Existing Homes ABS Style
dc CB 17:30 GMT 03/04/2015
Three big private equity firms — the Blackstone Group, Colony Capital and Cerberus Capital Management — are betting that so-called landlord loans to small and midsize investors will become the next big opportunity to profit from the rebound in the United States housing market.

All three firms are gearing up to bundle those loans into bonds — with the first securitization of landlord loans expected to come to market in the next few weeks with Deutsche Bank taking the lead underwriting role

Equity Firms Are Lending to Landlords, Signaling a Shift


FED 2009
dc CB 17:25 GMT 03/04/2015
NYT analysis plus link to the 1600 page set of transcripts

What the Fed’s 2009 Transcripts Reveal


within reason Close ranges
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:10 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Abel, the trade has been to stay short ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and that worked out. Now it depends on whether 1.10 gets defended.

See this post from GVI Forex and send me an EMAIL if you want access to my approach.

Jay's Trading Tips
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:01 GMT 03/04/2015 - My Profile
Here is what worked;

4 day pattern around 1.12 broken = bearish

Retracement to 1.1217, although a modest one, setup the move to a new low

Break of 1.1150 (50 level) was a trigger

Hard (to enter) trade was the right trade today
Reply

Waiting for Mario
Paris ib 17:03 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
It could be disappointing.

The ECB's 60 billion


within reason Close ranges
jkt abel 16:59 GMT 03/04/2015
Chris, do you enter fresh new short here then?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 16:51 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile



Waiting for Mario
Paris ib 16:46 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
What is baked into the cake? What is Mario expected to announce? The type of QE and the amount? Do we have any information about what is expected, what is possible and what is likely?

I confess total ignorance.

within reason Close ranges
FW CS 16:12 GMT 03/04/2015
Chris
Yes been short. Euro shows no sign of turning around to me. I think both Europe and US are allowing lower Euro levels.

within reason Close ranges
London Chris 16:02 GMT 03/04/2015
Is anyone here short euro? All I have seen are calls for the low. Even Dr Q called it wrong.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:46 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Beige Book due at 19:00 GMT today. Recent reports have been positive in tone. There is no reason I have seen why that perspective will change. Keep in mind, this is the final Beige Book before the next Fed meeting two weeks from today (March 18).

Waiting for Mario
Paris ib 15:38 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
The DAX is waiting for Mario. Closing higher today. Big bounce off the low. Now Mario has to deliver. With the ECB followed by NFP this is gonna be a big week.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Major Crude Oil build. Bearish crude.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:31 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts





NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +10.300 vs. +4.500 exp vs. +8.400 prev.
Gasoline: +0.050 vs. -2.000 exp vs. -3.10 prev.
Distillates: -1.70 vs. -2.500 exp vs. -2.700 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.6% vs. 87.0% exp vs. 87.4% prev.




Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

within reason Close ranges
SaaR KaL 15:31 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
GBPNZD
Might heading to 2.1 from here

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
london red 15:30 GMT 03/04/2015
cable might be done here but they will be selling rebounds to 15323 if seen ahead of ecb.

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 15:27 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Looking at the MONTHLY chart 1.0765 next major support from September 2003.

within reason Close ranges
SaaR KaL 15:21 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
Xtrem Values Distribution
They Got volatile when they want to reverse

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Mtl JP 15:17 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
1.1077 euro testing multi-week lower range boundry
gbp testing its 50dma
usdyen pretty much dead in the water

within reason Close ranges
London Chris 15:17 GMT 03/04/2015
Kal, you will eventually be right but guessing a bottom when at 11 year low is loke throwing a dart.

within reason Close ranges
GVI Forex john 15:16 GMT 03/04/2015  - My Profile
As I indicated earlier, for some reason EURUSD has been tracking weakening S&P today. A positive correlation is atypical.


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