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FOREX FORUM
03/10/14 7:50 B FR SVC PMI final con: 49.4 pre: 49.4
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Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Paris ib 16:24 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
Say we get a weaker number that won't stop QE coming to an end. So we get the end of QE and a long period of nothing.... no rate hikes, no rate cuts. The market left to its own devices. The training wheels come off. Now that could be interesting.

A stronger number? Well we will get chatter of earlier than expected rate hikes. But what does that mean? April at the earliest ?

One way or another the U.S. will have no real monetary policy at work come end of October.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 16:19 GMT 10/02/2014
JP, i currently have futures at 27 index at 34. i am using the index for charting. when i trade it the odd time i use options or adjust the futures quote for entry/stops. the low so far on the index i have is 1925, 2 short of the trendline. i suppose the emini will have a similar trendline possibly a point or two either way.

Just what we need
Mtl JP 16:18 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
nh 16:09 sounds like an old fog generator being dusted off for more frequent use. Yellen must think players are fools.

Ebola in the USA
dc CB 16:13 GMT 10/02/2014
the Dallas Ebola IPO is a Big Winner

from 1 to 100 in two days

Up to 100 at Risk of Ebola Exposure in Texas


Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Mtl JP 16:10 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
red 15:49 although I appreciate your honesty u r also too self-depreciating :-)
as u were posting the 1921 , I saw it flash to 1918.x and just as I was typing 10-yr rocket up and dragged SnP quote above 1921 and higher, now ~1927.
like it or not: kudos
and thx

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Paris ib 16:09 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
USD/JPY bears watching. It's been a very quick move up to 110 so a lot of stops could get triggered on the way down.

Just what we need
Livingston nh 16:09 GMT 10/02/2014
sorry LINK

Just what we need
Livingston nh 16:08 GMT 10/02/2014
John - in the lull before the storm - Fed is adding a NEW Indicator - maybe you want to add to your Indicators Gradebook

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 16:06 GMT 10/02/2014
i say we get 250 or 150. due to the 142 last. either we bounce or confirm slower trend. it would be unfortunate to get a 200ish print, makes trading more choppy/two way.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Paris ib 16:03 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
How far of an outlier does NFP have to be to impact the market given trading action in the last couple of days?

It would have to be massive to have any impact at all. The QE comes to an end at the end of the month..... and that saves the USD ?? Doubt it. There just isn't a USD bear out there at the moment. At least not in public. :-))

sell euro
jkt abel 16:02 GMT 10/02/2014
sold euro 1.2668 with stops above 1.2720

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
Equity markets are ending Thursday in a clear RISK-OFF posture as stock prices have fallen. There is talk that the ECB meeting today may have seen President Draghi encounter strong opposition to additional QE  The EURUSD is off its highs of the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed to higher after yesterday's sharp declines. The 10-yr bund is 0.907%,  +0.7% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.343% -2.5 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.395%, +0.8bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are ending lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 15:59 GMT 10/02/2014
todays high for dec 10yr is 76.4 retrace of mid aug high to mid sept low. a break higher and you are looking at aug high with 126 right shoulder of shs on way.
one thing is for sure, they are certainly not positioned short for nfp now.

The Great USD Unwind
Paris ib 15:56 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
'The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report... showed speculators had a net euro short position of -141,965 contracts as of Sept. 23, versus last week's net short of -137,149 contracts.

This compared to the -161,423 contracts seen Sept. 2, which was the largest net euro short since July 17, 2012 (-167,249 contracts).

A contract size over 100,000 contracts is generally viewed as extended.

The record net euro long was +119,538 contracts May 15, 2007, and the record net euro short was -214,418 contracts, June 5, 2012....... '

When the whole market is set the same way it's tricky to find a bid. Tomorrow is going to be interesting.

Everyone is long USDs


Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Chicago AG 15:55 GMT 10/02/2014
It is comical to see CNBC try to explain the equity correction. It even dragged our Warren Buffet as a cheerleader but that didn't help. This is still just a correction.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 15:53 GMT 10/02/2014
yen. while below 108.37, the 107.90 fib at risk.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 15:52 GMT 10/02/2014
trendline at 1923 yesterday 21 hence my confusion. the 11/13 are a couple of fibs.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 15:49 GMT 10/02/2014
scrub the 1921, it may work it may not, i cannot seem to relocate my research on that figure. the target for 1955 break is 1911/13.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Mtl JP 15:49 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
somebody just bot some 10-yr and SnP popped above 1921
-
red u got some good micro-term insight

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 15:47 GMT 10/02/2014
yen 23.6 at 107.90. if they dont hold in close the asians will let loose again.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 15:46 GMT 10/02/2014
i use the underlying index. currently 1928

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:45 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
USDCAD , USDJPY careful Guys
COuld be at top for next year drop
Linear trends wont work... look at the bigger picture
USD is again under threat
Might see it around 68 next year

How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:45 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
JP, I know what my account shows but would be nice if others gave us feedback.

I want to thank you for alerting us to how you use pivots to trade as it is led to our series on how to use it and is now in my daily toolbox.


Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Mtl JP 15:45 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
I am being quoted 1918.50ish on SnP

How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)
Mtl JP 15:43 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:31 re "We could use some feedback"
-
suggestion : for feedback just look in your account
--
note usdyen (108.10ish) : Sup 3 107.57

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:38 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
The ECB left interest rates unchanged, as expected, after last month's unexpected rate cuts. ECB President Draghi provided some more details regarding the asset purchase plan, but failed to put a hard total amount on how much would be purchased. Draghi merely said that the bank's balance sheet would grow back to 2012 levels, which would be about €3.0T compared to near €2.0T today.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ECB Leaves the Bazooka on the Shelf


Inflation
PAR 15:38 GMT 10/02/2014
If you want inflation , raise VAT levels and you solve two problems at once . Prices go up and budget deficits go down . Too simple for politicians and bankers.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 15:35 GMT 10/02/2014
s&p index should bounce at 1921. i would expect it to hold ahead of nfp.

How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:31 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
We could use some feedback on our series of articles on using pivot points. They worked remarkably well today as I highlighted in this article so would be helpful if we got some feedback or discussion as the EURUSD 5% odds trade was pointed out in real-time earlier.

More Hel from IMF do-gooder
PAR 15:27 GMT 10/02/2014
Lagarde is a marionette of Hollande, who himself is a caviar socialist.

More Hel from IMF do-gooder
Paris ib 15:23 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
Somebody should tell these morons to get out of the way.

More Hel from IMF do-gooder
Mtl JP 15:21 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
IMF's Lagarde: 'Mediocre' global recovery needs help
Lagarde: Growth may slow down in China, Asia
-
Lagarde's prescription: countries to adopt new policies outside of monetary policy to bolster growth - including fiscal policy, structural reform and infrastructure investment.
poof... desease cured

ECB ( Economic Central Bureau )
PAR 15:17 GMT 10/02/2014
Draghi going back to Soviet style central planning with the help of Blackrock . The Economic Central Bureau will decide where to allocate capital ,which bonds to buy and which bonds not to buy , which comrades to help and which comrades not to help .

We have all seen what wrong capital allocation did to the Soviet Union. I know Italy has a long tradition of communist parties , but imho this is not the way for Europ to go .

Capital should be allocated by the market and not by the apparatski of the ECB.

Ebola in the USA
dc CB 15:17 GMT 10/02/2014
JP
there's very little threat of Ebola on Canadian soil.

from my recollection, Toronto airport is quite the international hub

Ebola in the USA
Mtl JP 15:06 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
from the I am from the Govt and I am here to Save You file:

Canada prepping for potential Ebola cases but still sees risk as low: Ambrose, te federal health minister and chief public health officer say there's very little threat of Ebola on Canadian soil. Dr. Gregory Taylor outlines precautions to take when travelling to a region where an Ebola outbreak is occurring.
-
In the meantime, somewhere, someone(s) is probably placing massive Concertina wire and Napalm orders

Ebola in the USA
Mtl JP 14:55 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
may the nurse is geographically challenged ,
ebola .. angola .. mybola, yourbola, parabowla...

Ebola in the USA
dc CB 14:48 GMT 10/02/2014
Mtl JP 08:34 GMT

The Dallas patient had initially sought treatment at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital late last Thursday and was sent home with antibiotics rather than being observed further, even though he told a nurse he had recently returned from West Africa. By Sunday, he needed an ambulance to return to the same hospital, where he was admitted.

A nurse asked about the travel as part of a triage checklist and was told about it. “Regretfully, that information was not fully communicated throughout the full teams. As a result, the full import of that information wasn’t factored into the full decision making,” Texas hospital official Mark Lester said.

NBC News has confirmed with the Dallas county health and human services that 80 people came into contact with the Dallas Ebola patient or his family (including 12-18 direct).


GVI Forex Blog 14:38 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
October 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Employment, Service PMIs

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 3, 2014


BREAKING NEWS: European Central Bank (ECB) October 2014
GVI Forex john 14:34 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
Peripheral Bond yields are sharply up post-ECB inaction.

BREAKING NEWS: US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile



News ALERT
+112 vs. +105 exp vs. +97 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Forex Trade of the Day
Livingston nh 14:20 GMT 10/02/2014
Today's EVENT was a wet firecracker - maybe tomorrow

eurusd
hk nt 14:13 GMT 10/02/2014
believe euro 1.00-1.05 is in the radar

How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:12 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile

We have been refining our pivot point system and suggest reading this article as it will show you how a forex trader can make money using it.

How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)


CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile


October 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Employment, Service PMIs
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales
  • North America: CA- Trade US- Employment, Service PMI's, COT Report



BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Factory Orders August 2014
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
-10.10% vs. -9.00% exp. vs. +10.50% prev (r -10.30%) rev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

eurusd
Tallinn viies 13:56 GMT 10/02/2014
Draghi is like true GS guy. just by talking achieves his targets.
so far he has not provided any real stuff but euro is 10% weaker :)

Draghi
GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
PAR 13:46 GMT 10/02/2014
Edit Delete
"If you cannot convince them confuse them"


Agree 100%. Actually Draghi said nothing re forex.

Forex Trade of the Day
london red 13:48 GMT 10/02/2014
v strong bounce at 7836. looking pivotal. 2 yards of 1.61 cable goes ex shortly might be having effect.

Draghi
PAR 13:46 GMT 10/02/2014
"If you cannot convince them confuse them"

A

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:34 GMT 10/02/2014  - My Profile
JP, I agree and with resistance above it at 1.2702.


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