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01/02/15 22:30 A AU Mfg PMI con: n/a pre: 46.9
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Greece seeks to reassure Europe as tensions rise
PAR 08:00 GMT 02/01/2015
Greece running out of money . Then they call Draghi.

Draghi keeps on spending European taxpayers money on the most silly projects .

Ukraine peace talks collapse, Kiev and separatists trade blame
GVI Forex 01:58 GMT 02/01/2015  - My Profile
(Reuters) - Peace talks on Ukraine collapsed on Saturday after just over four hours with no tangible progress towards a new ceasefire but with Ukraine's representative and separatist envoys angrily accusing each other of sabotaging the meeting.

Ukraine peace talks collapse, Kiev and separatists trade blame


Greece seeks to reassure Europe as tensions rise
GVI Forex 01:56 GMT 02/01/2015  - My Profile
Reuters) - New Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, striking a conciliatory note on debt talks after a turbulent start to office, has called the European Central Bank chief to assure him that Athens was seeking an agreement.

Greece seeks to reassure Europe as tensions rise


Burrrrrrr
dc CB 19:58 GMT 01/31/2015
time for the Polar Votex frenzy to heat up this week.
Good excuse for poor retail performance in Feb.

Feb 7 forecast lows


Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or Seek Aid Extension
dc CB 19:28 GMT 01/31/2015
Amid 'turmoiling' stock markets on Friday, CNBC's Simon Hobbs summed up the status quo's thinking on the new Greek leadership when he noted, somewhat angrily and shocked, "The Greeks are not even trying to reassure the markets," seeming to have entirely forgotten (and who can blame him in this new normal the world has been force-fed for 6 years) that political leaders are elected for the good of the people (by the people) not for the markets.
......................................................................

the most uncomfortable moment ever caught on tape - the moment when Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem (he of the "template" foot in mouth disease) stood up at the end of the EU-Greece press conference, awkwardly shook hands with Greece's new finance minister, and whispered..."you have just killed the Troika," to which Varoufakis responded...

(video and pix)

Caught On Tape: Dijsselbloem To Varoufakis: "You Just Killed Troika"


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 18:59 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):  

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.


Reserve Bank of Australia
GVI Forex john 17:56 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
I expect a rate cut on Tuesday. AUDUSD negative...

Australia Data Charts

weakening PMI suggests slowing growth



falling inflation. below target floor...



Market rates are pointing downward...






OIL - is it over?
PAR 15:42 GMT 01/31/2015
Why do you think Obama went to Saudi Arabia ? OIL - OIL -OIL .

Janet Not Outdone by Mario - February 1, 2015
GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile



Central Bank Blunders Continue
 
Markets are continuing to feel the after effects from the long-delayed ECB decision over a week ago to start an aggressive Quantitative Ease (printing money) to stimulate economic growth in the European common currency area. Around that decision, nearly a dozen central banks have eased interest rates suggesting that for one reason or another the ECB had been holding up needed interest rate adjustments elsewhere. This appears to be another case of where poor policy execution by a central bank has been an unnecessary source of market instability. Recall, it was poor policy execution by the Swiss National Bank that created the worst case of forex instability seen in decades a few weeks ago.


Janet Not Outdone by Mario - February 1, 2015


Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension
Mtl JP 12:47 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
What d ya think of shorting eur/gold ?

Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension
Mtl JP 12:45 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
“We are not going to co-operate with a rottenly constructed committee.” said Varoufakis

Barclay's estimated risks of a eurozone breakup to levels “significantly higher than at any point in 2012”
-
I am bit uncertain if break-up of eurozone would mean break up (demise) of the euro.

Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension
GVI Forex 12:37 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
JP trading on crisis or potential crisis news is not easy. This is a drama that has to play out but is a cloud over the EUR while it plays out.

Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension
Mtl JP 12:26 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
Jay - how do you see trading 12:17 for maximum profit ?
TIA

Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or Seek Aid Extension
GVI Forex 12:17 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
(Reuters) - Greece's new leftist government opened talks on its bailout with European partners on Friday by flatly refusing to extend the program or to cooperate with the international inspectors overseeing it.

Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or Seek Aid Extension


OIL - is it over?
hk nt 09:34 GMT 01/31/2015
WTI crude: Lets see if we have one final dive from $50 to $36 in February. Big funds and firms have already squared shorts and finished hedging at low 40s. Hope momentum players may have enough bullet to power the last dive.

The upside risk comes from Russia. Think the Bear Bomber incident is a signal that the Russian warns the drop of oil price from 110 to 40 is not tolerable.

OIL - is it over?
hk nt 09:04 GMT 01/31/2015
technical tools project $36 downside target to be met in coming weeks and which maybe a long term floor

RUSSIA
PAR 08:44 GMT 01/31/2015
German FM reportedly asked Russia to roll over $3bn loan to Ukraine. Forget the sanctions, help a brother out!

OIL - is it over?
Mtl JP 07:24 GMT 01/31/2015  - My Profile
'There will be blood' in Canada from oil price collapse, JPMorgan warns - The Globe and Mail
A major U.S. bank is warning Canadians what to expect from the rout in the oil market: “There will be blood.” That warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

That warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co. is largely aimed at the province of Alberta, home to Canada’s oil patch, but the collapse in oil prices will filter through the broader economy.
--
And I , perhaps naively, bought the earlier prognostications of lower energy prices as beneficial as a tax cut !!! What a fool I may have been...

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 23:05 GMT 01/30/2015
JP - anytime these folks start changing the goal post (alternative??) I get queasy -- exports he cites here's the deal Exports and Imports declined (i.e., TOTAL trade was lower) so we await December figures -- as I mentioned orders down inventory draws up because of oil price (deflation expectations, oh no!!)

Productivity = deflation // that's the way it works since Prometheus

observation
uk rg 22:50 GMT 01/30/2015
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

hopefully more so than this week

Deep Thoughts
dc CB 22:42 GMT 01/30/2015
"we need to be sure that we're not creating instant millionaires, people who don't deserve to be millionaires"

Pres of the Maryland Senate, quoted on NPR's All Things Considered in a segment about the Maryland Legislature as they debate the Legalization of MaryJUUUWanna, during this year session.

Thomas V. Mike Miller, Jr., President of the Maryland Senate since 1987

Mike


observation
uk rg 22:42 GMT 01/30/2015
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

observation
last weeks closing candle was 22 pips below monthly s3
this weeks closing candle is 36 pips above monthly s3
Would venture next weeks close candle will be green
gt


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 22:18 GMT 01/30/2015
looking forward to the appearance of Oracle, early Monday, for the six week Trend.

GWE


BUY BUY


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 22:11 GMT 01/30/2015
John - I'm looking at a much stronger economy (only missed Q4 by 2% on gdp) - the ISM comments from last month showed that expectations of lower prices affected orders and inventory draws -- the analysts (aaargh) are responding to the past // the risk is that they misjudge the Fed (even the Fed doesn't know what it will do) - like driving behind a drunk

BONDS -- money leaving risk perceived (Aaa, BBb) but ignoring simple rate risk -- could get really UGLY by JUNE

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 22:01 GMT 01/30/2015
JP fear of ?? - it's a typical flight to quality - stox scare treasurys jump //

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 22:00 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Look at the headline "RISK OFF". They are buying bonds due to fear about stock prices.

Professional bond traders focus on bond prices, not yields. So when stock prices fall bond prices RISE (lower yields). There is a difference here between "fear" and "calm " expectations for a weakening economy.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 21:54 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
john 21:50 normally cheap cost of money sees stocks rally
what d u think is currently "wrong" that is causing both cost of money and stocks go down at same time ?

Deep Thoughts
dc CB 21:50 GMT 01/30/2015
Well, not so Deep.

Hillary Clinton Faces Scrutiny for Use of Private Jets

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-29/hillary-clinton-flew-jets-on-taxpayer-funds-in-senate?hootPostID=b077bb0a4751b2db2ac9be636663e60a

With 4,000 in homeless shelters, D.C. on pace to eclipse record set last year


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
ugly close in stocks. Should carry over into Asia. Question wiull be what Europe and the U.S. will do.Monday sees an avalanche of PMI's. U.S. bond yields approaching recent lows around 1.60%.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 21:47 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
just had a closer look at the 10-yr yields
US - 1.652
IT - 1.67
haha,
must some all time records being set

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 21:40 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
nice pop into the close ... in Gold

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 21:20 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 21:20 GMT 01/30/2015
AND I can't resist the chance to debunk the oil price decline as a tax cut AND increased consumer purchasing power -- the oil price frees more money for other purchases it does NOT increase purchasing power or higher CONSUMPTION (only increased income or lower savings CAN ACHIEVE THIS)

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 21:16 GMT 01/30/2015
CB, well you know repeat customers get done from behind. either you start batting for the other side or you shop around. as for payouts, gone are the days. will you every loophole possible not to pay. seems impossible to insurance against human stupidity these days. believe its a problem if you have staff.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Paris ib 21:16 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
CB - welcome to the wonderful world of 'official' disinflation. Same here: everything goes up in leaps and bounds but the people at the Central Bank and the statistics office never seem to notice. And they certainly don't record it!! Falling flat screen television prices wipe out all those pesky real world price increases in stuff we actually use.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 21:16 GMT 01/30/2015
I got to keep my old policy. But that notice came in November--15% increase. but part of that is age related, as I turn another leaf in the 60's.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 21:11 GMT 01/30/2015
Wait until you get your new improved mandated medical insurance premium increase -- maybe premiums stay the same BUT your deductibles double - hmm but it is better insurance right ??

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 21:09 GMT 01/30/2015
Just suppose the UoM survey of inflation expectations are close to right

well I just got my 2015 auto insurance renew notice. Up 16.6% from last year. No violations, no accidents, no changes on my part, no reason my premium should have risen 16%.

The nice customer service lady on the phone said: well insurance rates are going up everywhere.

I said: but I'm keep getting told that there is no inflation, 16% rise from you.

She said: it's just...rates are on the rise all over, your rates are just doing a catch up to...to...well rates everywhere.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 21:01 GMT 01/30/2015
Just suppose the UoM survey of inflation expectations are close to right -- EVERY treasury yield is well below -- keep in mind the Fed ALWAYS panics

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 20:56 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
10-yr 1.659% -103bp
DJ -239
SP-26


CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:53 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile

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Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






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X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





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Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





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G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 20:24 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
DJ -193
S&P -20
10-yr 168.3%, -7.9bp

OIL - is it over?
Livingston nh 20:06 GMT 01/30/2015
whatever it takes!!!

I'll put in my plug for TARIFF rather than gas tax -- keep the jobs here and put OPEC out of business

OIL - is it over?
dc CB 20:03 GMT 01/30/2015
Oh Really. That's what caused it? ISIS...
It wasn't coordinated Stop Run, that took out shorts going back to last Thurday. BANGING THE CLOSE....just slightly illegal...

ISIS

it's a co-inky-dink


OIL - is it over?
GVI Forex john 20:02 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
nh- I agree I find it hard to see how higher oil prices would help me. I have yet to see my utility costs fall.

OIL - is it over?
london red 20:01 GMT 01/30/2015
brent had a similar 5 pt rally back in oct last year. traded down to new low within 2 weeks. so lets not get carried away. a few religious terrorists on horseback does not a demand create.

OIL - is it over?
GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT 01/30/2015  - My Profile
Now stocks are falling!

OIL - is it over?
Livingston nh 19:50 GMT 01/30/2015
John - there's a great example of conflict of interest at the highest level -- dogooders want higher oil prices but whine about the "evil" ISIS folks


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