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08/03/15 2:00 A CN Trade con: 6 pre: 60
FOREX FORUM
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U.S. February Jobs Data Beat Expectations. Swiss Deflation Worse
GVI Forex Blog 23:57 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: CN- Trade, JP- Trade, DE- Trade, CA/US Clocks Advance One Hour

U.S. February Jobs Data Beat Expectations. Swiss Deflation Worse


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 22:30 GMT 03/06/2015
yesterday $ Indx

Ackerman chart


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 21:59 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile


views plz
tia

Nasdaq Composite Confirms Outside Week Down
Livingston nh 21:52 GMT 03/06/2015
JP - nega rates may depend on ECB - theory says nega rates could spread if ECB pumps enough money that spreads outside EU BUT I doubt it // once money starts moving the demand for it rises which raises its price

Nasdaq Composite Confirms Outside Week Down
Mtl JP 21:33 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
nh 21:14 re money moving - do u see the prospect of nega rates tool as money-moving prod in US now mitigated ?

Nasdaq Composite Confirms Outside Week Down
dc CB 21:31 GMT 03/06/2015
One last thing - for everyone confused at how everything can be sold? Where did all the money go? Where did it rotate to? The answer is very simple - it's not real money - its leveraged carry trades and the expectatons for a rate hike dramatically raise the risk of those positions and thus that leverage is reduced and credit extinguished... it does not "go" anywhere...

ZeroHedge

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
NW kw 21:29 GMT 03/06/2015
if 1.0 eur/usd do you See target for MAD DAX X WHUT 1YEAR ?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 21:25 GMT 03/06/2015
SPX filled the gap - next one is 2046 (same week) - wild card is ECB starts looking for sellers next week // Draghi noted 50% of eligible credit held outside Eurozone - those folks (outside EM holders) may not want to sell w/EUR sub 1.08

Nasdaq Composite Confirms Outside Week Down
Livingston nh 21:14 GMT 03/06/2015
For the record the stox are going down on GOOD news as it adjusts to a modest rate hike timing earlier -- every market is wrong half the time and goes thru periodic adjustments - there is no BEAR market indicator as the FED is still supplying money at bargain rates

The level of rates is no big deal merely a change of direction -- banks, real banks, not mega investment banks, will benefit from margin increases - higher rates will spur companies to invest in capital equipment now (ultra low rates deter labor expansion) - loans become more profitable

WHEN money moves everybody benefits

Nasdaq Composite Confirms Outside Week Down
Paris ib 21:00 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Nasdaq hit a multiyear high this week. It also now confirmed an outside week DOWN for the index. More bad news shall surely follow.

CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:52 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Bond Market Avalanche
Mtl JP 20:48 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
with stox off only approx 1.5-1.7%, still very very far from a Babson moment , also far from shellshock

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




Bond Market Avalanche
Paris ib 20:39 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
The U.S. funds itself in the 2 to 3 year area of the yield curve, when it is not issuing paper of a year's duration or less. 2 year yields have tripled since early 2011. OK they are still low but what has happened to total U.S. government debt in that time? It has increased by over 30 percent. Taken together that is not good.

U.S. Government debt


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 20:39 GMT 03/06/2015
SPX having a problem moving below a modest gap from thurs 2/12

Bond Market Avalanche
dc CB 20:34 GMT 03/06/2015


10y yields are still pretty low

the auctions next week will be interesting.

I really thought that the BLS would put out a poor number today, given all the layoff anncments that came during earning reports and the cut backs in the energy sector.

The next FMOC, coming in the 1st quarter QuadWitching week and the Spring Equinox ( for GANN traders) and APPL joining the DOW....should be one wild week.

Bond Market Avalanche
Paris ib 20:29 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
JP I had a catholic education. I kinda like the idea of living in a functional society with happy people in it. Not shell shocked desperados. But hey that's just me. :-)

Bond Market Avalanche
Mtl JP 20:18 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
ib 19:54 / what is ugly about "a collapse of bonds and stocks more or less at the same time" pray tell ? To me that sounds like that one multi-decade trade opportunity to get filthy rich. And something to get excited about - and if you are right , and I am right, and we both get filthy rich, we could combine our filth, buy a 747, u pilot and I serve the drinks as we plan our next destination.
What would you like in your juice ?

Looks like a black Friday for now:(
Paris ib 20:15 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
That's like the taxi driver who tells you about his stock portfolio. You get out of the taxi and you sell all your stocks. Pronto.


Bond Market Avalanche
Paris ib 19:54 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
3 year Treasury yield at 1.14 percent and looking ugly. Stocks don't like it, neither will the economy. Failed policy all round. We could very well have a collapse of bonds and stocks more or less at the same time. After all the rally was across the board. Central Banks take a bow. You idiots.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 19:23 GMT 03/06/2015
If stox/yen watching then SPX ~2082 in the next hour might be a neutral move on 15 min chart - should hit the 21 ma around that level -- past few days this 21ma hasn't held rallys BUT Friday could see a bounce off and LOD close

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 18:50 GMT 03/06/2015
yen lvl to watch 47/50 last place for a save. below that likely to lose the lot but thats only going to take place if stocks give it the push so youd look to about -2.5% or more on spoos when all said and done.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 18:46 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
RISK OFF
US 10-yr 2.249% +13.2 bp

DJ -256
S&P -31

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 18:24 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    2:00 CN Trade external accounts
    SUNDAY
    23:50 JP GDP 4Q14 Widest Economic Statistic
    MONDAY
    TUESDAY
    1:30 CN CPI SNB Target
    14:00 US JOLTS Survey mln top Yellen Statistic
    17:00 UST TRY 3-yr auction
    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 EZ Draghi Speech
    9:30 GB Ind Output output
    9:30 GB Mfg Output output
    14:30 US EIA Crude mn major price indicator
    17:00 UST TRY 10-yr auction
    20:00 NZ OCR+Statement Rate Decision
    THURSDAY
    0:30 AU Payrolls jobs data
    7:00 DE final HICP m ECB target
    9:30 GB Visible Trade external accounts
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobs data
    12:30 US Retail Sales Consumer Demand
    17:00 UST TRY 30-yr auction
    FRIDAY
    12:30 US PPI inflation
    13:30 CA Employment jobs data
    13:45 US prelim U of Mich sentiment indicator

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.



BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 17:45 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile


March 6, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 9, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- Trade, JP- Trade, DE- Trade, CA/US Clocks Advance One Hour
  • Far East: CN- Trade, JP- Trade
  • Europe: DE- Trade
  • North America: Clocks Advance One Hour



Looks like a black Friday for now:(
HK RF@ 17:24 GMT 03/06/2015


Dow likes 17800.

DOW
HK RF@ 17:19 GMT 03/06/2015


SnP secured target for now mostlikely 2070.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Livingston nh 17:13 GMT 03/06/2015
Good News is Bad News -- ordinary risk off (DOW -200pts) sees flows into treasurys but the risk on Good News is Treasurys at risk -- so folks are hiding in the USD?

See some comments here about long term charts -- 1984, 1994, 2004 tightenings and effex on various markets -- not a strong dollar yet, just recovering so far (every chart should be viewed in the context of the conditions at the time)

DOW
PAR 16:56 GMT 03/06/2015
Long S&P 2078 . Waiting for PPT . We are not going to close here . Dont spoil the weekend ?

DOW
Paris ib 16:53 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
RF@ :-)

DOW
HK RF@ 16:52 GMT 03/06/2015

ib

So let's call it for a while an opportunity for bargain hunting, if there is any crazy to enter the Mkt, at this level.

Draghi & the Euro
PAR 16:52 GMT 03/06/2015
From 1.4500 to 1.0850. The Italian Job .

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 16:48 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Markets in U.S. and Europe do not like the U.S. data. Bond yields are spiking higher in anticipation of a FED "tightening".

I think of it more as an excuse to take profits.

DOW
Paris ib 16:46 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
NFP - even though it is a dud statistic - often mark a turning point for financial markets. We'll see at the close today if we are at one now.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 16:44 GMT 03/06/2015
jun 10 risk on/off switch 126.38. current 126.10.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 16:42 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile


BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 16:39 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT March 6, 2015
BREAKING NEWS: Reply
AAPL joining DJ on March 18 replaces ATT.

Sometimes this can be a signal of a top?



Well done John.

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 16:38 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
•Key oil market reports a driver of commodities sentiment
•Pulse of US consumer key to Fed ‘patience’ after a mixed February employment report
•Greece still a potential source of market anxiety as ECB buying begins

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AWAIT A PATIENT FED


Mkts
Paris ib 16:38 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
RF@ I wouldn't get too excited right now. A turn is not usually that easy. Especially when its significant. The bouncing around could be shocking. So hold tight. :-)

DOW
nw kw 16:38 GMT 03/06/2015
last time s&p dropped and growth stocks ran back up bin hear before by big dip/ sectors keep I on

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 16:36 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
Bet there are a whole lot of smug Germans around at the moment. They should not be so smug. Their policies are crazy. Greeks were pretty smug too at one point. That worked out well. Not.

Mkts
HK RF@ 16:36 GMT 03/06/2015


If this will go on or escalate, by Mon. morning Asia will get infected.

Will see if Europe will volunteer to be the goalkeeper.

DOW
Paris ib 16:34 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
red the bottom line is that the U.S. can not afford to pay significantly higher bond yields. So it won't. How we get lower bond yields is the question. Quickest route: stock market softness.

DOW
london red 16:32 GMT 03/06/2015
10yr starting to take notice of still small stock losses. and thats affecting yen.

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 16:32 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
DAX confirms record close. The U.S. stock market is the most vulnerable of the majors and will probably crack first. The Germans won't be immune to this. You can't have a stellar economy when global economic growth is tanking all around you. But they won't be first into the mess.

EURO outlook
gc sf 16:30 GMT 03/06/2015
I suppose the last line of defence for EUR for the next 2-3 days

is this 1.080/1.0850 zone .. as if it trades through there then you have to prepare for 1.0500/1.0550

I think the close today tells us how strong the buying is + how many stops maybe lying below here ... something around 1.0900/10 says pretty good bids and we will need consolidation ... anything 1.0865 or below says - we could be looking at 100 pt gap on the open Monday.

EURO outlook
Paris ib 16:26 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
CS I agree with you re the temporary nature of the USD rally. It's misguided and won't last. I'm not sure how much upside it has but the market is way too complacent on this. That said I'm not much interested in picking the top in the USD. Yet. But I do think we are heading towards a once in a lifetime opportunity in the stock market. To sell that is. Start out in stocks. Move to FX a bit after that. No need to rush. The maniacs in charge have pushed this to unbelievable extremes. We can't do much about that. Just not get crushed when it turns and hopefully make some money. After which we should go out and lock up these nut cases and take away their power to do this again. gl gt :-)

DOW
HK RF@ 16:25 GMT 03/06/2015


Or try to crash the usd/yen hehe. But for now it has the symptoms of panic selling(not looks like a healthy correction)

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 16:21 GMT 03/06/2015  - My Profile
DAX holding onto gains and expected to close on another record high. The rest of Europe is in negative territory (or at best flat). U.S. stock markets taking a hit. Our Central Banker friends can pat themselves on the back as much as they like. They should be all locked up in padded cells for their own safety and ours.


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