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FOREX FORUM
21/10/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb con: n/a pre: -924.2
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POMO
dc CB 17:43 GMT 10/20/2014
3 this week

1 done today $1.135
Tues $1.40 - $1.70 billion
Thurs $1.35 - $1.65 billion

Last one next Mon $0.85 - $1.05 billion

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:41 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile


Daily chart

eurusd
london red 17:31 GMT 10/20/2014
daily. 6th and 15th october lows. not 5th which was the ltd as it would cross the 6th.

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:23 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Red, what time frame for the trendline? I show 1.2700 on the daily chart and current 4 hour trendline is 1.2690.

eurusd
london red 17:11 GMT 10/20/2014
euro making lower daily highs recently pulling back to trendline test today at 12670. tomorrow the trendline is at 12686, thats not far below tomorrows 20 day ma.
you fancy a test of todays low tomorrow, before an attempt to the topside. often euro shakes the tree to lose the weak fruit before any run up. as long as todays high is no higher than 12820/25 which is looking to be the case, we should test the downside tomorrow early to mid session and then we either continue or reverse to the topside.

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:02 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
If you count 2 days when the high was 1.2699, it has been 19 days in a row that a big figure has traded in the EURUSD.

See now if 1.28 can trade to make it 20 days -- just traded so 20 days in a row. Incredible pattern on a day where it looked like 1,.27 would be the big figure that would trade.

eurusd
Tallinn viies 16:54 GMT 10/20/2014
sold euros at 1,2794. stop at 1,2844
target 1,2690

IBM
dc CB 16:22 GMT 10/20/2014


I have always wondered what IBM does? I guess we got an answer today?

It issues debt and buys back its stock...

Or why going forward the end of QE and ZIRP will hurt "earnings"/share on Stox. After all IBM is a Bellweather.

IBM buys


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 16:15 GMT 10/20/2014


all better now.

USDJPY
GOT PK 15:58 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
red - itīs a long term play. funds will likely be remitted on a purchase-to-purchase basis, so I donīt know if any impact at all in the larger scheme.
john - itīs 43b gbp, not jpy.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 15:47 GMT 10/20/2014
i have 12792 as a mini pivot to take us to 12806

USDJPY
Provo John 15:39 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Then that makes a lot more sense with 7b from stocks and 43b from bonds.

USDJPY
london red 15:37 GMT 10/20/2014
fwiw. euro has a negative yield but quite a lot of european property has a depressed price but a good yield in prime location, beating any western bonds hands down. capital gains are nice to have but may not been seen for a while (but will in time) and the juicy yield helps, while capital risk can be hedged away leaving a good yield, beating bonds (and you are not buying anywhere near the top of the market which is the risk with sovereign bonds). if you looking beyond prime location (or prime sites in secondary locations as i call them), yields move to double figures but more hands on work require to milk it.
this investment will be a buffer to the outflows from euroland, not enough to stop the euro falling longer term as a return to growth will be required for that, but just smooths out the downside a bit.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Miami JN 15:32 GMT 10/20/2014
I just saw a comment on cnbc that one reason why European stocks are weaker is that the eurusd has stopped falling.

USDJPY
GOT PK 15:29 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
john - as I understand it, from existing domestic funds. part of the plan to diversify out of domestic bonds.

USDJPY
Provo John 15:24 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
PK, are those new funds or diversification of existing foreign assets?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 15:23 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile

15:25 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Heading into the close of European trade, markets have shifted into a MIXED RISK posture as U.S.  equity markets have held. A large part of the decline in the DJIA is attributed to weakness in IBM. Equities in Far East trade ended broadly higher. A highlight of European bourses has been DAX weakness. U.S. share futures are mixed at this hour.

The U.S. 10-yr yields are steady. 10-yr yields in the bund are steady while gilt yields are down. Peripheral bond yields are up, Greek yields remain close to 8.00%



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.



Global markets
GVI Forex Blog 15:19 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
The S&P500 and Nasdaq are seeing modest gains this morning after a wild week, while the DJIA is being weight down by the 8% slide in IBM shares.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: After the Storm


USDJPY
GOT PK 15:09 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
to add; they are also diversifying overseas, including alternative assets. right now in the process of establishing a London office, covering purchasing commercial real estates all over Europe and with a small warchest of Ģ43b!

USDJPY
Dillon AL 15:01 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
hrly close < >106.80-90 will set the bias for the rest of the week

USDJPY
Provo John 14:57 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Thanks Jay.

I think the gap up was a bit of overreaction as the foreign asset allocation is only going to increase by at most 7% (8bln) whereas the domestic investment is double that. The gap is filled so we shall see where we go from here.


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Equities broadly recovering after there has been no follow-through on initial weakness. I don't have a good handle on how much of the DJIA weakness is IBM.

Forex markets look reluctant to react immediately to the higher S&P

USDJPY
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:43 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
John, great to see you.

We posted that last night and was one reason USDJPY gapped higher at the opening (click on this thread to see discussion)

USD Pivot Points
Provo John 14:35 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
As for jpy Jay, overnight the Japanese Government Pension Fund (1.2 trl in assets) stated it would boost its investments in domestic stocks from 12% to 25% and reduce its bond portfolio. By law they can hold at max 30%. They now hold ~14b and can increase up to 36b. This MAY encourage some repatriation (especially via eurjpy).

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:23 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile


I posted this earlier on GVI Forex and note the pause below 1.2784 (last 1.2765)

Monday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:11 GMT 10/20/2014 - My Profile
Trapped like a rat

EURUSD risk still on downside as long as it stays below 1.2784 with downside limited as long as 1.2750+

IBM
london red 14:20 GMT 10/20/2014
most growth stocks eventually become utilities.

IBM
GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
I gather IBM accounts for the entire DJIA decline. Stocks are driving RISK-OFF or RISK-ON.

IBM
GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
I have always wondered what IBM does? I guess we got an answer today? Nothing! I hate to see a once great company go the way of Xerox, Kodak or HP.

GVI Forex Blog 13:57 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
October 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 21, 2014


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile


October 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales
  • Far East: JP- Trade. CN- GDP
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • Noth America: US- Existing Homes Sales, API Energy



QE4
Livingston nh 13:37 GMT 10/20/2014
The Fed has consistently refused to guide the market with respect to its reinvestment of earnings on massive portfolio - this is a mini QE (the hidden Stash), but unknown in duration or target (equal re-allocation to source of funds or perhaps rebuild the s/t positions) -- maturity of most of the FED holdings is well beyond five years

MBS commitments as of last Thursday are for $53 bio - Taper, maybe not so much --- ADDICTS, all of them



USD Pivot Points
london red 13:35 GMT 10/20/2014
thru 77 john and likely to be touched

USD Pivot Points
GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Key to path of USDJPY may be if DJIA and S&P trade significantly lower.

Recall short USDJPY and long EURUSD are RISK-OFF trades.

USD Pivot Points
GVI Forex john 13:26 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD
JPY pivot today is 106.63. Waiting to see if it comes into play? thoughts?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 13:18 GMT 10/20/2014
yen. 106.64 broken fib. kicked off nasty drop last week.

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:16 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
I suggest watching my video update for the week ahead

As part of our trader advocacy, we have added my video outlook for the week ahead to give our members an inkling into how I look at the market. I take a common sense approach that has served me well over the years and hope it helps in your trading journey.

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Don't expect a replay of last week

QE4
london red 13:16 GMT 10/20/2014
john, the idea of printing money to kick start the economy is sound, except giving every one a cheque for a thousand bucks was deemed too RECKLESS. it was thought it would be better to recapitalise the RISK AVERSE banks that would then lend accordingly in order to make a profit for themselves whilst giving people the loans they wanted to expand their business/buy a property. hold on...

QE4
Mtl JP 13:07 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
JM there is only one Q in my mind: are the "wise and courageous" being overtaken by events

QE4
Mtl JP 13:03 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Federal Reserve holds steady amid market volatility - Hilsenrath in WSJ

QE4
NY JM 12:58 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
All these monetary officials are acting like they are rock stars. What happened to these central banks speaking with one voice.

QE4
Mtl JP 12:56 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Fed's Fisher supports ending QE3 next week

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 12:29 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Yes. Thank you! Dax getting slammed -134

QE4
GVI Forex john 12:18 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
JP- In my first my first intermediate economics course in the late 1960's, we learned about the "liquidity trap". In essence, you can't get out of a deep recession by printing money. They figured this out after the 1930's depression. It should come as a surprise to no one that QE does not work.

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:11 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
A pity party

eurusd
Mtl JP 12:05 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
Jay 11:56 re hangover: was there a party ?

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:56 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile


EURUSD One Hour chart.

This chart show 1.2778 as a pivotal level (suggests using 1.2780) with key resistance not until 1.2835-45 and supports at 1.2732 and 1.2705 (also around the 20 day mva)

Price action suggests market still suffering from a hangover from last week. Otherwise stocks would be higher and EURUSD would be closer to 1.27 than 1.28.

eurusd
GVI Forex john 11:53 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
viies- we did get a 9 pip pop when the 1.2781 pivot was taken out. You can't epect much more than that this early in the week when a lot of positions have not been accumulated yet.

QE4
Mtl JP 11:48 GMT 10/20/2014  - My Profile
QE didn't, doesn’t and will not work as promoted.
Not in Japan. Not in US. Not in Europe.

What printing money out of thin air does is dilute confidence and instill fear. Sometimes panic.

eurusd
Tallinn viies 11:41 GMT 10/20/2014
seems there was no meaningful stops at 1,2780.
back down to the lows now? expect euro to test 1,2705/10 before new test higher

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Zurich EG 11:36 GMT 10/20/2014
Look at the DAX.....


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