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FOREX FORUM
16/09/14 20:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b con: n/a pre: n/a
16/09/14 20:00 B US TIC L-T Flows Mar con: n/a pre: -18.7
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Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 17:20 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
R1 or S1 holds on average about 62% of the time
R2 or S2 holds on average about 85% of the time
R3 or S3 holds on average about 95% of the time

based on our backtesting (GVI Forex Database) since the start of 2013.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 17:16 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
R2 1.3012

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
PAR 17:09 GMT 09/16/2014
Looks like US markets could be making new record alltime highs this week .

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.571%

FRANCE
PAR 16:55 GMT 09/16/2014
French government wins vote of confidence .

Good or bad news ? Imho rather bad .

here come usd reversal
tokyo ginko 16:54 GMT 09/16/2014
sell GBP for target 1.5970/80

US Yields
Mtl JP 16:54 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
john here is an offer to maybe have Yellen answer your question

What’s your question for Janet Yellen?

China leading to risk ON
london red 16:38 GMT 09/16/2014
aussie. now abv first retracement fibo 23.6 at 9082. while abv yest high then its poss that market targets 9140-50. but up there ait gets thinner and expect sellers to be lined up ahead of 9200 and upwards.

here come usd reversal
tokyo ginko 16:37 GMT 09/16/2014
stay in tune!

Scotland
London Misha 16:36 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Survation poll at 22.30 London/Edinburgh time will be interesting to see!

Scotland
london red 16:36 GMT 09/16/2014
cable. expect 16220-40 to offer good res. stops over 50. but would want to cover ahead of job report tomorrow. wages while not seen out of control certainly, might just be less bad than expected, while the job market should be in good health.

China leading to risk ON
PAR 16:35 GMT 09/16/2014
FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6278, up 0.28% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6307 and low at 1.6162.

Volatility is here again and this was already likely to be a week of turbulence in the markets on fundamentals that we are awaiting, but here, as we felt braced in a stable cable, that apple cart just got shook up on news that that China has injected liquidity to the five biggest banks in the country and up to a tune of 500 billion Yuan. This is a factor seeing the greenback lower as traders exit safe haven assets with risk apatite flooding in. However, knee jerk moves on the news may be short lived, as we are already seeing through the EUR and the Yen. Traders may not wish to be too positioned up as we head onto the FOMC later this week and similarly, sterling has it’s own concerns ahead with the Scottish Independence Referendum date approaches fast on Thursday 18 September 2014.

Bank of Canada
GVI Forex john 16:35 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
"The Bank of Canada's commitment to keep inflation low and stable requires that the value of the Canadian dollar be determined by markets, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz said today in Drummondville.

The Bank of Canada fosters strong, sustainable economic growth by aiming to keep inflation at the 2 per cent midpoint of a target range of 1 to 3 per cent, Governor Poloz told members of the Société de développement économique de Drummondville. Manipulating the value of the Canadian dollar is incompatible with this primary objective of the Bank, the Governor explained..."

Floating Loonie Essential to the Bank of Canada’s Inflation-Targeting Regime, Says Governor Stephen S. Poloz


Scotland
GVI Forex john 16:12 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Three polls on Scotland independence due out over coming hours

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 16:00 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD R1 1.2976

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
New York GVI Forex 15:58 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile


Daily ranges and latest spot rates updated on today's Pivot Point table. Click on icon to store it in a tab at the top of your browser for quick reference..

Scotland Decides!
PAR 15:58 GMT 09/16/2014
The Scotland referrendum is a joke . They will never vote yes .

Risk On
PAR 15:57 GMT 09/16/2014
USStocks rallying as Wallstreet insiders have been reassured by Yellen that she will never raise rates .

Spike up
Central Kwun 15:56 GMT 09/16/2014
Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

what happend to non USD and Dow?

Scotland Decides!
Mtl JP 15:42 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
such as the RBS ? ooohhh ... supposed to scare me : next time a deadbeat crooked bank would have to be bailed out by the English only ?

Scotland Decides!
London Misha 15:34 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
HIHI JP - thank you for your comment but I should point out that many if not all financial institutions based in Scotland would have to leave as under EU Capital Requirements Regulation they have their registered office within the country which is their main place of business, i.e. the rest of the UK!

Current Conditions: RISK-MIXED
GVI Forex john 15:23 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Market Conditions:
Markets have been drifting into a MIXED RISK posture as some appear appear to be reconsidering what signals the FOMC will be sending on Wednesday. Today saw another weak German ZEW Survey today. U.K. inflation data were in line. The closely contested Scottish independence vote is Thursday.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now mixed. The 10-yr bund is 1.06%, -1.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.53% -1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike. The Scotland vote is Thursday.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.580%,  -1.10bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe is closing weaker. U.S. shares are roughly steady.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Scotland Decides!
Mtl JP 15:19 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
do they ?
-
IF Scots vote Y and shake the shackles odds are capital would flow INTO Scotland and OUT of UK



Day's Trade
SaaR KaL 14:50 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
GBPCAD
Longs
1.8474 1.7851
WOnt make a new low

Day's Trade
SaaR KaL 14:47 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
EURCAD
Was in too early
Longing and tgt
1.4793 1.4179
1.4833 1.4218

EURAUD Longing
1.4525 1.4120
1.4586 1.4179

US Yields
Mtl JP 14:46 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
john you missed da Costa

Grand Central: The Case for Fed Patience on Rates, Message - wsj

basically aping Hil's earlier suggestion that the FED is behind market's expectation (or that players are ahead of the FED, choose your poison)

US Yields
GVI Forex john 14:40 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
In recent years, it seems like the Fed has backed away from leaking policy signals in the press. As a result, stories by Hilsenrath,Liesmann and Ip are no longer "authoritative". Their opinions are no better informed than the rest of ours. Aa for the FOMC tomorrow, NOBODY Knows nothing!

I sense the market has been backing off from the "extended time period" elimination tomorrow. Personally, I do not know what the Fed will do, but it is logical to assume in some way that Yellen will START to prepare us for the beginning of a "normalization" of policy. On the other hand, I don't think the bank has any interest in upsetting what are thought to be fragile market conditions. So look for a cautious approach.

GVI Forex Blog 14:24 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
September 16, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade, GB- Unemployment, EZ- Final HICP, Current Account, CPI, FOMC

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 17, 2014


Scotland Decides!
SaaR KaL 14:24 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
perfect call red on usdcad
Thanks
TGT 1.1320

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile


September 16, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade, GB- Unemployment, EZ- Final HICP, Current Account, CPI, FOMC
  • Far East: JP- Trade
  • Europe: GB- Unemployment, EZ- Final HICP
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Current Account, CPI, NAHB Index, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision+Press Conference



Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.585% narrow range so far....

Risk On
PAR 13:56 GMT 09/16/2014
Us markets are open and ... stocks moving higher and yields moving lower . Yellen not going to let wallstreet down .

Westfield evacuation!
London Misha 13:51 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Hearing - Westfield Stratford City evacuated! It's the newish shopping centre next to the Olympic Park in London!

US Yields
london red 13:45 GMT 09/16/2014
looks like my 10yr dec long will be stopped out for a small profit at 124.20. if so, will look to buy again at 124/124.08 with same stop just under july 31st low. im not sure market is willing to push the lower end of the band ahead of fomc and in light of recent data.

Scotland Decides!
GVI Forex john 13:34 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Thats what I figured also. One side had to be paid anyway.

Scotland Decides!
London Misha 13:28 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Hypothetically you understand - it would not be beyond teh realms of reason to suggest - suggest only I hasten to add - that if you had say 'limited' exposure to a No vote as a bookie and were most probably likely to pay out anyway, then as a piece of advertising publicity you could get many, many discussions by the water cooler, online, etc... if you bit the bullet and paid early (and the charged it as an 'advertsiing' expense) - just a thought you understand :)

any riggers in this forum?
tokyo ginko 13:23 GMT 09/16/2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-15/biggest-banks-said-to-overhaul-fx-trading-after-scandals.html

TIC data
GVI Forex john 13:22 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
i know lots of people like to watch the TIC data, but I find them to be too volatile and subject to massive monthly revisions so that I don't know what to do with them. Moving it to 4PM will make it completely ignored, imho.

Scotland Decides!
london red 13:19 GMT 09/16/2014
at those odds there wont have been many punters backing no - gamblers tend to favour long odds. so the few that backed no wont cost them much. certainly not more than a national marketing campaign which the media have now kindly taken upon themselves. elsewhere you can still back yes and make 300% if you wish. as long as its a yes of course. but thats v unlikely. but if you're long bp its not a bad hedge i suppose.

if seen long usdcad at 10978/86 worth looking at stop under 10950.

Italian Banks
PAR 13:11 GMT 09/16/2014
ITALY BANKS BAD-LOAN RATIO ROSE TO 9% IN JULY

TIC data
GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Beginning September 16, 2014, the monthly Treasury International Capital (TIC) data release will occur at 4:00 PM Eastern time (20:00 GMT), aligning the monthly release with other TIC data releases. The scheduled release dates are unchanged.

Scotland Decides!
London Misha 13:05 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
HIHI nh - I don't think there will be 'fraud' allegations though there might be some recriminations if it goes Yes.

Scotland Decides!
Livingston nh 13:01 GMT 09/16/2014
The risk in Scotland is a "VERY Close" vote either way - recounts and challenges could drag this along - recriminations and charges of Fraud would antagonize both sides // the wild card is the youth vote which lacking a stakeholding and possessing a rebellious streak may have warped the validity of polls in a tight contest

From an EU perspective a YES vote could be an instructive microcosm of the currency breakup problems when a minority member of a currency union pulls out

Scotland Decides!
GVI Forex john 12:58 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
I read they did it to PROVE they are THE authority. Interesting publicity stunt.

Scotland Decides!
London Misha 12:49 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
HIHI John - neither am I but they have calculated it to be a 'certainty' of a No vote and have paid out accordingly - their version of an algo I guess!

August 2014 U.S. PPI
GVI Forex john 12:29 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
Headline: 0.0% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.
Core: +0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.


RELEASE: Producer Price Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Scotland Decides!
GVI Forex john 12:28 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
I am not a bettor and don't understand why they would pay out early. Is that irrevocable?

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 12:23 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.553%

pre-FOMC short-covering?

Scotland Decides!
London Misha 12:08 GMT 09/16/2014  - My Profile
Scottish Independence Betting - Betfair pays out early on NO vote! https://betting.betfair.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-betting/scottish-independence-betting-betfair-sportsbook-pays-out-early-on-no-160914-51.html


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