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12/12/16 16:30 A UST TRY 3-yr con: n/a pre: n/a
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Yellen Future
Mtl JP 16:23 GMT 12/10/2016
maybe focus on trump and yellen inspired this as an attempt at attention deflection:

National Security
Secret CIA assessment says Russia was trying to help Trump win White House

Yellen Future
GVI Trading john bland 16:12 GMT 12/10/2016  - My Profile
Ignore Yellen post below. Test...

Yellen Future
GVI Forex Blog 16:11 GMT 12/10/2016  - My Profile

I don't know for certain, but I don't think the President can fire the Fed Chief, except "for cause" Incompetence does not qualify. I do know the Prez can make life uncomfortable for them. I only know of one Fed Chairman (G. William Miller) who ever was removed

Yellen Future

Wash Post claims the Russians got Trump Elected
dc CB 14:26 GMT 12/10/2016
1) Secret CIA assessment says Russia aimed to help Trump win
The CIA concluded that Russia intervened in the 2016 election to boost Donald Trump’s chances, rather than just to undermine confidence in the system, said officials briefed on the matter.

2)CIA report leaves GOP leaders facing an impossible choice
By acknowledging and digging into the increasing evidence that Russia helped — or at least attempted to help — tip the scales in Donald Trump’s favor, Republicans risk raising questions about whether he would have won without Kremlin intervention.

3)Schumer calls for full inquiry of Russian interference
The incoming Senate minority leader said the CIA findings raise the need for Congress to conduct a full investigation.

Wash Post

Draghi: When Is A Taper Not A Taper?
GVI Forex Blog 12:55 GMT 12/10/2016  - My Profile

John M. Bland, MBA

ECB Announces A reduction In Asset Purchases

What might have been a conflicted European Central Bank surprised the Forex Markets Thursday by announcing a policy "tapering" which was NOT a "tapering". As widely anticipated, key interest rates were left unchanged, but the central bank announced that it would reduce its monthly asset purchases starting in April 2017 to EUR 60bn from the current EUR80bn level. Asset purchases will continue at the new monthly EUR60bn level until the end of 2017. ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the ECB is prepared to INCREASE asset purchases should economic conditions warrant a reversal of the reduction in the support of the European economy. Furthermore, he said the governing council had not even discussed tapering asset purchases further if the economy exceeds their expectations.

Draghi went to great lengths in the press conference to say that the policy decision had not been a "tapering". However, when it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, its a duck. Draghi said it ws not a tapering because the ECB could increase asset purchases if needed. Common sense suggests it is not the plan of the ECB to increase asset purchases. I think Draghi is worried about the word "taper" because of the initial adverse reaction of U.S. markets to a Fed "taper" a couple of years ago. He is playing a game of semantics...

Draghi: When Is A Taper Not A Taper?

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Stronger than Forecast
GVI Forex Blog 12:36 GMT 12/10/2016  - My Profile

Preliminary November Michigan Survey stronger than expected.

Data revision in two weeks.

University of Michigan Sentiment Survey chart

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. University of Michigan Survey Stronger than Forecast

Does the Trump Stock Market Rally Need a Reality Check?
GVI Forex Blog 12:22 GMT 12/10/2016  - My Profile

With US stock markets setting new record highs almost daily in the post-election rally, perhaps it is time to consider how much has been discounted and whether expectations are realistic

Does the Trump Stock Market Rally Need a Reality Check?

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 12:21 GMT 12/10/2016  - My Profile
Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Commitment Of Traders Report
nw kw 01:34 GMT 12/10/2016
First India, Now Rumors Circulate About China Curbing Gold Imports

swiss GDP at risk and is xaujpy spending well they can,DOW to MOON ?

Deep Thoughts
dc CB 21:18 GMT 12/09/2016
what they thought would happen --- note date Nov 8

what's happening

weather and the Markets are tuff tuff tuff to PreDict

Deep Thoughts
dc CB 21:12 GMT 12/09/2016
the Euro in pictures.
wait wait wait
is this the wrong way to get votes????

drudge reprts image

Deep Thoughts
dc CB 21:03 GMT 12/09/2016

The thing about all this "Fake News" and the Russians being why the Election went to Trump.

does anyone really believe that this much money would have switched sides on the basis of FAKE NEWS and the Rooskies?

Commitment Of Traders Report
london red 21:00 GMT 12/09/2016
one thing that tells me is cable set for more gains, the shorts have barely budged. id say we will need to see 12840-70 maybe 12950. it looks like we will need supreme court judgement ruling against gov to drive cable up and maybe then we get the top. its going dwn nxt year but still open to short squeeze near term.

Commitment Of Traders Report
GVI Trading john bland 20:47 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details


Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil

Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 20:27 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

dc CB 20:17 GMT 12/09/2016

Per The Hill, the review is slated to begin immediately with the goal of being presented to Congress before Obama leaves office on January 20, 2017.
President Obama has directed the intelligence community to conduct “a full review” of the 2016 election in light of reports of Russian interference, Homeland Security Advisor Lisa Monaco said Friday.
The report is expected to be completed and transmitted to Congress before he leaves office Jan. 20.

dc CB 20:06 GMT 12/09/2016
Republican Elector Warns Trump: "I Am Not The Only One Who Will Not Vote For You"

"I am confident in saying, at this point," Republican elector Christopher Suprun said, "I don’t think I will be the only one voting for someone other than Donald Trump. At this point there are people who have reached out to me. Again it wouldn’t be my place to name who they are."

currently so called committed: Trump 306, Hillary 232

They will NEVER Give Up

GVI Trading john bland 20:04 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile

Friday Trading
nw kw 19:49 GMT 12/09/2016
with a strong rubl.e

Friday Trading
Livingston nh 19:47 GMT 12/09/2016
2 yr german US spread 1.90 -- high for the year

dc CB 19:17 GMT 12/09/2016
OK your turn...make it look like we are actually trading.

use that pic of the semibald whitehaired guy

dc CB 19:14 GMT 12/09/2016
But Trump is "Hitler", didn't you hear?
He can do anything he wants to do. It won't suprise anyone. Esp Mssr Blankfein. LOL
GS backed the loser but Hedged.

nw kw 19:14 GMT 12/09/2016
John Tavares scores with a move no one had ever done before.

slap stick granny loves checking funds out of line.

london red 19:09 GMT 12/09/2016
i read somewhere he cant actually fire her, but obviously could put pressure on her to jump.

JP, u can almost print. just keep btfd sp500. not entirely sure someones not going to have to pay for it eventually, but as long as its not u and me...

dc CB 19:07 GMT 12/09/2016
Incompetence does not qualify
What? He(Bernanke) She (Yellen) are "competent"'s been X Years and rates are sittin' on 0(ZERO)

GVI Trading john bland 19:04 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile
I don't know for certain, but I don't think the President can fire the Fed Chief, except "for cause" Incompetence does not qualify. I do know the Prez can make life uncomfortable for them.

I only know of one Fed Chairman (G. William Miller) who ever was removed. He was way over his head and Jimmy Carter bribed him by giving him the job of Treasury Secretary.

Mtl JP 19:02 GMT 12/09/2016
CB 17:17 Then Euro to 0
It is interesting how the missives and spouts about how the euro is an in-appropriate currency construct for Europe here on the FF have gone the way of the dodo. That of course does not mean that euro's in-appropriateness / effectiveness have somehow gone poof.

If your euro to 0 materializes what do you prognosticate for Gold ?
Next week donald will find out how (un?)friendly janet is to him.

Now that trump made almost everyone eat crow I look forward to 2017:
- elections in Germany, France & maybe Italy
- then there are the banks. Has DB - the alleged systemic risk - gone poof?

Think we will see euro to 0 next year ?
That would probably have some serious implications for my wallet !!

dc CB 18:54 GMT 12/09/2016

Wait wait.
Can HE actually FIRE Me?

Mtl JP 18:41 GMT 12/09/2016
CB 17:17 can just imagine the freedom you would have IF you could print without fear (fear of anything, personally) ?

Friday Trading
GVI Trading john bland 18:25 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile
10-yr 2.460% +6.9bp

dc CB 18:12 GMT 12/09/2016
another way to look at that.

Buy North American

london red 18:11 GMT 12/09/2016
yes well done ks. now that weve been to 105 to 10850 and now back to 105. its a must break for usd. cannot see anything but, however if doesnt it means 10850 and v likely 110. nothing fundamental suggests so however, but if cannot go down, will go up. big wk nxt wk.

GVI Trading john bland 18:07 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 624 vs 597 (+27) prev
US (oil): 498 vs. 477 (+21) prev

Canada 230 vs. 200 (+30) prev

TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 18:05 GMT 12/09/2016
Eliminate the $100 Bill.
No way, how else could I leave a decent tip.
Hey I'm not Larry- ban Cash- Summers

Goldman President Gary Cohn To Be Chief Economic Advisor
(disclaimer: Fake News Until Certified by WaPost, NYT, etc)

Kl Fs 17:38 GMT 12/09/2016
Well done. Profit for euro at 1.0538 and gold 1160.

Kl Fs 13:28 GMT December 8, 2016
eurusd: Reply
Draghi wants weaker euro. Dont fight with him.

Kl Fs 13:16 GMT December 8, 2016
Gold struggling also. Maybe a good short for 1160 stop above 1180

Kl Fs 12:59 GMT December 8, 2016
Yes red. That is a big one. You must be blind to go long euro with that wick. Just sell!

Kl Fs 12:55 GMT December 8, 2016
eurusd: Reply
Took the opposite. Short euro 1.0790 stop 1.0843, target 1.05

Friday Trading
Livingston nh 17:28 GMT 12/09/2016
Stox internals are starting to turn negative - A/D line flipped and chart negative since early -- something to watch// also oil has supporters into tomorrow's non-OPEC producers meeting -- each will be asking "what's in it for me?" so late day risk price comes off

Friday Trading
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 17:23 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile
US Yields spiking and USDJPY correlating

Amazing Trader Bullish Dollar Post
GVI Forex Blog 17:22 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile


This was an earlier update from the Amazing Trader. Note that USDJPY has traded to 115 and above while EURUSD has tested 1.0535 support. The Amazing Trader provides structure to the market and gives "amazing" levels to trade

Amazing Trader Bullish Dollar Post

GVI Trading john bland 17:21 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile
Atlanta Fed GDP forecast steady at 2.60% vs. 12/6

dc CB 17:17 GMT 12/09/2016
Mtl JP
Euro to parity as Angela loses big.
1) Immigration
2) ECB bailouts, with German's Savings.

Then Euro to 0

Bailing out is all we know.

Friday Trading
Mtl JP 17:15 GMT 12/09/2016
and 30 year HoD 3.1436%
c'mon puppies ... higher .... higHER

Friday Trading
london red 17:13 GMT 12/09/2016
yields are really smacking it so i wouldnt bet against (as in buy) it but barrier at 105 held on italy no vote so could be said its pretty strong. but euro was already showing signs of strength pre weekend, hence i said it would close up whatever the result. now however, everyone dumped since draghi and its fresher (less shorts). if barrier goes absolutely looks dwn to 10450 nxt barrier. below 10450 there is v little options interest and could gap dwn, but exotics such as barriers may be around to slow the drop.

Outstanding Post on the Forex Forum
GVI Forex Blog 17:08 GMT 12/09/2016  - My Profile

The following is an outstanding post on the Forex Forum. Note USDJPY traded to a high at 115.28 so fart on friday. At the time of this post, USDJPY was around 114

Outstanding Post on the Forex Forum

Friday Trading
Mtl JP 17:02 GMT 12/09/2016
red maybe eurdlr goes to 1.0460-ish (my s/t wish)

Friday Trading
london red 17:01 GMT 12/09/2016
10y breaks prev high 2.45 now the biggie preev high 2.49 and lt prev high 2.5. abv there clear skies 2.68/3.00

Friday Trading
Mtl JP 16:00 GMT 12/09/2016
red I like keeping an eye on yields not so much as forward looking indicator discounting some economic growth prospects rather as a forward looking discounter of price-inflation expectations. Despite what the officialdom may spout about what the cretins' problem (or wishful target of 2% elix as they call it) may be with inflation.

Friday Trading
london red 15:52 GMT 12/09/2016
i meant realtime quotes jp in particular yield spreads. plot 2y/2y or 10y/10y vs underlying currency. v often highly correlated.

Mtl JP 15:49 GMT 12/09/2016
dc CB since when is Qtn by a tabloid a serious one ? *-*

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9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

12-Dec Mon
No Major Data
13-Dec Tue
09:30 GB- CPI/RPI
14-Dec Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- Crude Oil
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
15-Dec Thu
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits

Trading Themes--
  • No matter what you call it, the ECB announced a "taper" of its asset purchases to EUR 60b per mo from EUR80b starting in April 2017. Even though President Draghi claimed it was not a "taper" but it generated a "taper tantrum" in EURUSD. I warned Thursday would be a volatile day, but it exceeded my expectations.

  • The calendar is light today. Better than expected U.K. trade data has been a market-mover for the GBP. University of Michigan preliminary Sentiment data for December are due later. A positive "Trump Effect" would not surprise.

  • We remain confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25bps next Wednesday. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount continues. Odds for a reversal of the Trump victory are slim.

John M. Bland, MBA


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