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FOREX FORUM
20/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn con: -1.00 pre: -1.40
20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn con: -1.50 pre: -1.20
20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn con: -1.00 pre: -2.40
20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util con: n/a pre: 91.60%
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Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 12:18 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
your safe trades are USDCAD Longs for a couple for week

UPDATE: Unites States 2y vs Fed Funds Target Rate and EURUSD (inverted Scale)
GVI Forex john 12:16 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Wednesday NY OPEN: Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART

2-yr vs U.S. Fed Funds Target and EURUSD (inverted scale). Late last week saw a flight to safety, which resulted in U.S. yields falling. As a result, the USD rally vs. the EUR stalled. Now with U.S. rates starting to climb again the USD rally has resumed. This is CAUSATION, not simply correlation.

I don''t expect much new from Yellen on Friday. We all know that Fed policy is data-dependant. Inflation has not become an issue, especially as the Fed feels there still is a lot of slack in the economy. I agree. Yellen appears frequently and I can't imagine what new she has to say.




Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 12:16 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
GTC EURUSD Long till end of AUG
1.3182 to 1.3088

1.3310 is sell avg this week
don mess with dat

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Mtl JP 12:08 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
GVI Forex john 08:35 - re gv econ calendar:
Time Country Title Cons Last
20/08/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
-
since when did the FRB become country ? lol
thx for the chuckle !

Daily Forex Trading Outlook
SaaR KaL 12:06 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
I recall that so well Jay

Daily Forex Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:05 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
I have been calling for EURUSD 1.3294 as a target for the past month in my Dailu Forex Trading Outlook Videos , ever since 1.3475 was broken and finally achieved today.

if you want to see what may come next, send me an EMAIL for today's video.

Don't be shy, no strings attached.


Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 11:49 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
cable
in the next 1 - 2 weeks
there will be lots hesitancy from the traders

extreme values dist (advanced statistical methods)

Been a victim of this in so many trades
you buy and buy...then get squeezed ...get out with a loss...and then never look at a chart for another month (Da complex)...then the whole thing works

if you are bullish now cable
take your time
1.6473 1.6345
is the buy layer this week
it is not like it did not go 3-4 figures against you before


EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 10:55 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view.

EUR mixed. EURJPY up on poor Japanese trade data. I don't see this improving soon with post-earthquake Japan now importing oil heavily as nuclear reactors are closed.

The EURGBP is down after BOE Minutes. EURUSD below 1.3300.





Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:38 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
US Dollar Index at 6-month high as US fundamentals improve heading into European morning and managed to hold onto the bulk of its gains. The EUR/USD hit a fresh 11-month low after testing below the 1.3294 level. USD/JP Y hit its highest level since April and approached the 103.30 level ahead of the NY morning.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE Minutes shows first dissent on interest rates in over three years


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System
GVI Forex john 10:07 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...




AceTraderAug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 10:04 GMT 08/20/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Aug 2014 08:36GMT

GBP/USD - .... BoE releases its meeting minutes, which states, quote:

'MPC voted 7-2 in August to keep interest rates unchanged, Weale n McCafferty backed 25 bps hike;
Weale n McCafferty say desirable to raise rates before wage pressures show due to monetary policy lags;
Weale n McCafferty say early rate rise wud facilitate aim to ensure future rate rises are gradual;
most MPC see insufficient inflation pressures to justify rate rise;
most MPC see merit in waiting for firmer evidence that wage growth will come before raising rates; most MPC fear unexpected rate rise cud push up sterling, further impede UK economic rebalancing;
potential overreaction by mkts not necessarily a reason to delay rate rise if merited by data;
most MPC expect downside risks of raising rates to diminish over time; current monetary policy operational framework under review, can be used to implement rate rises in near term.'

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:53 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Daily Pivot 1.3332

S2 1.3282
S3 1.3252

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
GVI Forex john 09:22 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
The yield on the 2-yr gilt has risen to 0.74% from 0.71% beforehand. I don't see the policy dissent as a signal that BOE policy will be tightened before next year, but the 2-yr yield is a top indicator to watch for where the markets FEEL policy is headed and how the GBP will perform.

The primary GBP relationship is against the EUR and it must always be viewed in EUR terms. The GBPUSD value is a function of the value of the GBP against the EUR AND the value of EUR vs. the USD.


BOE Minutes Surprise Markets.Fed Policy Minutes Due Later
GVI Forex Blog 09:04 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes

Today sees the latest Fed policy minutes. The Bank of England Policy Board minutes surprised traders with two member dissenting in the latest interest rate vote. Members Weale and McCafferty both voted for an immediate +25bp rate hike. The GBP traded higher on the surprise. Its been like riding a roller coaster recently to follow the BOE. Their concern was about a tightening labor market the prospect of wage growth. I still do not see a rate hike before the start of 2015.

BOE Minutes Surprise Markets.Fed Policy Minutes Due Later


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 08:50 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
European markets early are in a mixed RISK-ON posture Wednesday. One impetus for trade today was the latest Bank of England policy minutes which saw two members vote for an immediate policy tightening. The EURUSD is testing below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.01% +1 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower. ECB president Draghi speaks late Friday from Jackson Hole.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.43%  +3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is now expected for November or February 2015, depending on data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, +2bp. The major focus is the Yellen speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot has become  2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are weaker. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
Weale and McCafferty both voted for an immediate +25bp rate hike. GBP spikes higher on the news. Its been like riding a rollercoaster recently to follow the BoE. Their concern was about a tightening labor market the prospect of wage growth.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:35 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
ready to place shorts on USDJPY

103.56 to 104.3
tgt 101.6 next week
Longer term 4 weeks

tgt 98.5 area

still bearish Cable from 1.6730 and above

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
GVI Forex john 08:31 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile



-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 2 Unchanged =7 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0


Bank of England





TTN: Live News Special Offer

Signals service
London London 08:23 GMT 08/20/2014
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.92919 Target: 0.92655 Stop: 0.93175

Dollar stronger across the board The dollar was up against almost every currency we track over the last 24 hours. Yesterday’s announcement of much stronger-than-expected housing starts and building permits for July, coming after the strong NAHB sentiment index, has given the market more confidence that the Fed is likely to start hiking rates soon. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has cited the weakness in the housing market as one reason for being cautious. For example, in her testimony to Congress last month, she said the housing sector “has shown little recent progress” and that “readings this year have, overall, continued to be disappointing.” If housing is now back on an improving trend, then that removes one more barrier to tightening.

AUD moved lower before Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens gave his semi-annual testimony before the House of Representatives economics committee. While he mostly reiterated the view expressed in the minutes of the recent RBA meeting about economic growth, he added that the risk of a material fall in the AUD is “underestimated” and said that intervention to stem its rise remains part of the RBA’s “toolkit.” Nonetheless AUD was slightly higher after he spoke than before he started, probably because he downplayed the usefulness of further monetary easing at this point. I still feel AUD is overvalued and is likely to decline.

Posted with permission of global-view.com

forex trading


Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:21 GMT 08/20/2014
Singapore SGFXTrader 05:15 GMT 08/20/2014
Dear GV Folks,

What is your view on nzs/usd tks

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:17 GMT 08/20/2014
or nzd/usd weekly has bigger pay out

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:13 GMT 08/20/2014
will it take gold down whit it shod but aud gold miners struggling so gold might be support for now with

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 08:04 GMT 08/20/2014
Forecasting a lower Aussie Dollar as US Fed Starts Getting Active

The AUD continues to see any bouts of strength proving short-lived in nature, indeed many traders are expressing the desire to sell the AUD rallies in anticipation of deeper declines.

"This view is not driven by an expectations of the RBA lowering the cash rate, or even the stodgy fundamental that lower export prices leads to a lower currency, but merely because we expect the markets to raise the odds that the Fed will hike by mid-next year, strengthening the USD," says Prashant Newnaha at TD Securities.

Newnaha notes that it was year ago now when the so-called “taper tantrum” was in full flight, net positioning was –60k or so contracts (August 2013) as investors piled into the USD.

Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 07:42 GMT 08/20/2014
https://www.google.com/finance?q=AUDUSD

GVI Forex Blog 06:53 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
(JP) JAPAN JULY MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥964.0B V -¥713.9BE (25th consecutive trade deficit); ADJ TRADE BALANCE: -¥1.0T V -¥761.3BE - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUL SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: 0.9% V 1.6% PRIOR (

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan trade deficit wider than expected; RBA Gov Stevens jawboning AUD ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com


Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
nw kw 05:42 GMT 08/20/2014
fast serch


Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
Singapore SGFXTrader 05:15 GMT 08/20/2014
Dear GV Folks,

What is your view?

1. Will Audusd ever hit parity ($1.00) in 2014?
2. Audusd Direction: $0.90 or $1.00?

Cheers
SgFx

GVI Forex Blog 03:58 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
The overall sentiment remains positive. The pace of Housing Starts surged by 15.7

Morning Briefing : 20-Aug-2014 -0357 GMT


AceTrader Aug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:14 GMT 08/20/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD

20 Aug 2014 02:39GMT

AUD/USD - ... The Aussie chopped around after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' testimony b4 the House of Standing committee ahead of Asian open, short-term specs were selling the AUD after NY close but when Stevens did not jawbone the Aussie lower, shorts covered their positions and lifted price o 0.9318.

Below were Stevens testimonies released on Reuters :

-remains view that on most metrics would be surprising if A$ remains so high
-risk of A$ fall is underappreciated
-puzzled why u.s. dollar is not higher given u.s. is recovering
- intervention on A$ part of tool kit if thought useful
-have not considered intevention useful so far
-would not want to give advance warning if did consider intervention
-economy does not need draconian fiscal tightening right now
-budget problems are in the medium term
-recent reading on unemployment was a weak one, difficult to interpret
RBA's kent says unemployment not to fall sustainably until late 2015, early 2016

Stevens continued - A$ high in part because global capital finds Australia attractive

-has not thought about raising rates
-says expects fairly subdued result for Q2 QDP
-have not felt that intervention would work at current A$ levels
-would consider lower rates if thought it would be helpful
-but does not think interest rates the answer right now

Could beheading rattle the stock market?
Mtl JP 03:14 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
nh 01:29 / thx 4 that clarifying distinction and reminder

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:13 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile

One of our GTA members has offered to share his simple but effective system with us.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System


Currency War: AUD
Livingston nh 01:48 GMT 08/20/2014
AUD/USD on the daily chart is showing similar patterns to EUR, then GBP where the 21 dma is sliding thru 55 and 89 ema - wkly chart gives some hope to a bounce but cluster of l/t MAs between 9333 and 9363 -- the daily charts show AUD capped at 55 ema -- a break of 92 looks likely once 9240 goes

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 01:42 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
To sum up, RBA Gov is saying if AUD gets too strong it will intervene

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 01:39 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: GOV REMINDS RBA MANDATE IS FULL EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY

. MNI: RBA: AUD JAWBONING EFFECT NOT INCREASING BUT WILL DO IF NEEDED

. MNI: RBA GOV: WE THINK ABOUT EFFECT ON AUD WHEN SETTING CASH RATE

Forex News
nw kw 01:38 GMT 08/20/2014
lumber indicated strong housing 3weeks ago but now full time construction workers will send nfp or usd to strength, than support bonds, and usd/jpy

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 01:31 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA:CONSIDERED INTERVENTION SERIOUSLY BEFORE WHEN AUD WAS HIGH

MNI: RBA GOV: AUD HASN'T REVISITED THAT HIGH LEVEL SINCE THEN

Could beheading rattle the stock market?
Livingston nh 01:29 GMT 08/20/2014
This is a political event w/ no financial consequence unless it becomes military - stox won't revalue for anything less than a Fed event // UKR is still more important because of the sanctions escalation game
IN the US ::
Political morphs into Financial = bad for stox // Political morphs into Military = good for stox

Forex News
Mtl JP 01:24 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
beg your pardon blog, but gv's database says:
Statistic: 07/1/2014 - 07/31/2014
Results USD/JPY High
Average 101.8994
Minimum 101.3880
Maximum 103.0900
fwiw

Currency War: AUD
Mtl JP 01:19 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile


kw 00:33 nyet, no lumber on my radar.
crude n Gold
-
usdyen still struggling to test 103.09

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 01:12 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index at 11-month high thanks to dollar's broad gains

* Euro/dollar at 9-month low, risks fall below $1.30

* Dollar/yen seen testing July peak of 103.15 yen

FOREX-Dollar holds upper hand after solid housing starts data


Islamic State says beheads U.S. journalist, holds another
GVI Forex 01:06 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
(Reuters) - Islamic State insurgents released a video on Tuesday purportedly showing the beheading of U.S. journalist James Foley, who had gone missing in Syria nearly two years ago, and images of another U.S. journalist whose life they said depended on U.S. action in Iraq.

Islamic State says beheads U.S. journalist, holds another


Could beheading rattle the stock market?
Syd 00:50 GMT 08/20/2014
The US stock market has put together the best couple of days in about four months and it has been the ‘de-hotting’ of the Russia-Ukraine standoff that has helped. This has been added to by some good US economic data on top of a good company reporting season. But has a new geopolitical concern raised its ugly head?

But has a new geopolitical concern raised its ugly head?


When will the long-awaited fall in the Aussie dollar happen?
Syd 00:48 GMT 08/20/2014
Economist Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, looks at the key determinants that will move the dollar.

aud


Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 00:44 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA GOV: JAPAN INFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO RAISE AUD

MNI: RBA GOV: BUT BENEFIT IS CHEAPER CAPITAL FOR AUSTRALIA

MNI: RBA GOV: JAPAN FUNDS COULD STILL FIND ITS WAY INTO AUSTRALIA

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
nw kw 00:40 GMT 08/20/2014
I herd jpy has no third arroyo /

Currency War: AUD
nw kw 00:33 GMT 08/20/2014
jp-you monitoring lumber ??????????? cheap bonds so what to trade/

Currency War: AUD
nw kw 00:30 GMT 08/20/2014
aud growth outlook might be helping aud hold its same forecast as china's /copper not bad off

Currency War: AUD
nw kw 00:27 GMT 08/20/2014
jp-you have a take on QQQ,chart interesting might be banks or tek

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:26 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA GOV: BIGGER SOURCE OF AUD RISE IN GLOBAL CAPITAL INFLOW

Little reaction to verbal intervention

Currency War: AUD
GVI Forex 00:26 GMT 08/20/2014  - My Profile
MNI: RBA GOV: BIGGER SOURCE OF AUD RISE IN GLOBAL CAPITAL INFLOW

Little reaction to the verbal intervention


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