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24/09/14 8:00 A DE IFO Climate con: 105.8 pre: 106.3
24/09/14 8:00 A DE IFO Current con: 110.6 pre: 111.1
24/09/14 8:00 A DE IFO Expectations con: 101.3 pre: 101.7
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GVI Forex Blog 03:25 GMT 09/24/2014  - My Profile
Poor Chinese data yesterday was reinforced by a flurry of poor Eurozone data. The technical

Morning Briefing : 24-Sep-2014 -0324 GMT

AceTrader Sept 24: Intra-Day News & Views (AUD/USD)
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:13 GMT 09/24/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

24 Sep 2014 01:31GMT

AUD/USD -..... RBA releases Financial Stability Review:
'discussing with apra further steps to strengthen bank lending standards;
APRA has already intensified supervision of mortgage lending;
composition of housing and mortgage market becoming "unbalanced";
bank competition driving strong rise in loans for housing investment; speculative demand could amplify house price cycle, risk eventual sharp reversal;
risks from housing cycle mostly macroeconomic, could become systemic if loan growth persists;
important that Australian banks do not loosen mortgage lending standards;
overall lending standards have not eased as yet, but still might not be conservative enough;
strong investor demand for commercial property driving up prices, but risks modest so far;
Australian bank profitability remains robust, capital ratios rising and bad debts falling;
shadow banking only small fraction of Australian market, poses little systemic risk;
indicators point to low levels of financial stress in household sector;
business lending by foreign-owned banks in Australia expanding at a fast pace;
rising concerns about asset quality in china amid slower growth, softer house prices.'

sd sf 02:06 GMT 09/24/2014
hopefully early europe pushes gbp down to 70-75 and eurusd to 30 and then it can base + rotate back to the topside.

for some reason whenever Asia tries to bid up GBP it goes down first .. or when Asia sells down GBP then it tends to rise in Europe.

anyway it is a few hours away yet .. beautiful day here in Sydney though so may head out for a walk.

Mtl JP 01:24 GMT 09/24/2014  - My Profile
for your potential enlightenment benefit rockstar of CBanking Carney yaks on Thursday

In the meantime eurgbp might be short candidate.

sd sf 00:59 GMT 09/24/2014
seems most of the Yen and X Yen work is done now

I still think that GBP has the most movement potential in Europe but I guess we can wait and see what Red thinks when he gets in.

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:48 GMT 09/24/2014  - My Profile
* Yen rises after Abe reportedly frets about weak yen impact

* Euro bolstered by bright spot of German data

FOREX-Dollar index underpinned by safety-bid after U.S. strikes

Ask Your Advocate: How Do You Find the Path of Least Resistance?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:23 GMT 09/24/2014  - My Profile

Ask Your Advocate: I take it you still see stronger USD as the "downhill flow of the stream"? Without being able to see the relative number, size + price levels of the buy/sell orders by the major players it hard to tell at times.

Your advocate says... Read this article and Get your free Currency Strength Meter Indicator.

Ask Your Advocate: How Do You Find the Path of Least Resistance?

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:10 GMT 09/24/2014  - My Profile
1.2850 trades for 5th day in a row (see video update)

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:05 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
For Sept 24

Forex Trade of the Day

Correction Wednesday?

New Feature added: FX Chart of the Day

sd sf 22:00 GMT 09/23/2014
What my system holds ..


bids @30


offers @02-03 bids @75 .... see a lot of stops @1.6430-40


offers 95 stops @11 ... bids @50


bids @60 ..... t/p offers @ 80 88 98

eurcad square now.

Looks to me that $yen and its crosses can weaken in Asia and when Europe comes in they can buy some eurusd and gbpusd again.

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:54 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

September 23, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 24. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- flash PMI, DE- IFO Survey, New Homes Sales, 5-yr
  • Far East: JP- flash PMI
  • Europe: DE- IFO Sentiment Survey
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, New Homes Sales, Weekly Crude, 5-yr

Nearly a third of ASX-listed companies are fragile, at risk of financial catastrophe,
Mtl JP 21:25 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
Syd thanks for that exciting report !
Sounds like something that might have been written by Babson himself.

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
08:00 DE IFO Climate  Top indicator seen soft
14:00 US New Homes Sales  Housing stat seen better
17:00 TRY 5-yr  belly of the curve
.00:30 JP CPI  seen steady
12:30 US Initial Claims  correction seen
12:30 US Dur Goods  correction expected
13:45 US Markit SVC PMI flash Economic Sentiment Survey
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 Revised data
13:55 US U Mich final Economic Sentiment seen flat

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Mtl JP 20:38 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

red 17:06 - what t-line are u referring to ?

Weekly US API Data
GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -6.500 vs. +0.500 exp vs. -1.600 prev.
Gasoline: 0.300 vs. -0.500 exp vs. +0.280 prev.
Distillates:0.091 vs. +0.500 exp vs. +3.670 prev.
Cap/Util: 92.30% vs. n/a exp vs. 93.00% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 20:29 GMT 09/23/2014
Hearing Granny working nicht shift
Biggest gains in S&P made overnight when Joesixpack is sleeping.

Mtl JP 20:22 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
CB 19:52 IF you were long DJIA into the close your Gammy didn't have her hearing aids in today

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 20:07 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

Selected daily USD & EUR Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data,. Click chart icon to store in tab at top of your browsers.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 20:06 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
AUDUSD still short above 0.88355 till 0.8982

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 20:03 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
will short EURUSD only if above 1.2877
up to 1.2954
I have a feeling it might hit 1.3000...not sure!!
for now happy to short AUDNZD above
1.09319 till 1.1045

and gold shorts
above 1,210 to 1,230

dc CB 19:52 GMT 09/23/2014

Help Gammy

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:28 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

PAR 19:05 GMT 09/23/2014
Yellen working the phones for a little last hour PPT action . Will we close in the green ?

Forex Trade of the Day
Kaunas DP 18:39 GMT 09/23/2014
Entry: 1.2860 Target: 1.2930 Stop: 1.2800


Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Paris ib 18:35 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
"to make Club Med competitive"... the Euro Area is not running a trade deficit, so by definition it already is competitive.

The U.S. has been running a trade deficit for decades, so by definition the U.S. is not competitive.

But that's not really relevant. This is not about trade flows. Currencies today are driven exclusively by capital flows. The U.S. wants/needs everyone else's money. The U.S. is reliant on capital inflows. Today that's tricky. When places like Japan were running massive trade surpluses all that was needed was a decision by MoF to accumulate USDs. Today the U.S. needs to convince the world's (private) savers to transfer their savings to the U.S., that's a big ask. You can convince the average margin FX trader but real savers? Not likely.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 18:18 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
Red- good points. Personally. I don't think the EURUSD slide is over. Its my GUESS the ECB is targeting 1.20-1.25. I don't think the 1.25-1.30 level is enough of a devaluation to make Club Med competitive. Having been the forex business for multiple decades, I can say I have never seen the market be so reluctant to jump onto a one-way trade like this one.

MIXED RISK: Flight to Safety on U.S. Air Strikes In Syria Fades Over the Day
GVI Forex Blog 18:11 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- flash PMI, DE- IFO Survey, New Homes Sales, 5-yr

On Wednesday, the key German IFO Survey is due, along with U.S. New Homes Sales. Flash PMI reports in the Eurozone were mixed, but underlying data were weak. The HSBC flash PMI for China outperformed street expectations, but they saw soft underlying items as well. The U.S. flash PMI data were flat, but the Richmond Fed gained.

MIXED RISK: Flight to Safety on U.S. Air Strikes In Syria Fades Over the Day

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
dc CB 18:11 GMT 09/23/2014


Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 17:44 GMT 09/23/2014
john, you can argue since recent hicp from europe, euro has tried to put in a bottom. today you can argue better german data (id say its gone from awful to just disappointing, but sometimes thats enough) has given the currency a lift. a few counter trend buy recs also hit the wires today. the dxy is very overbought, on the end of a multi week bull run. q3-end is coming up.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 17:36 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
If stock traders are more cautious, does that suggest diminished USD demand ??

If some equity traders are moving to cash, that could explain why EURUSD demand is a risk-off trade?

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 17:34 GMT 09/23/2014
fwiw normally market attempts to rally to cross point when cross takes place, having been priced in in earlier sessions. its arguable we've had the bounce a couple of sessions ago, but theres a trendline here.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Mtl JP 17:26 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
john the 200day ma is currently the but-tightening focus of players across all major equities indices: SnP, DJIA and nazdaq heading into yr-end

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 17:19 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
Script-readers all day have been harping on the death cross in the Russel 2000. The death cross is when the 50-day moving average trades below the 200-day. Russell is seen as a more speculative index.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 17:07 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
Good demand for 2-yr suggestive of equity players stepping to the sidelines??

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
london red 17:06 GMT 09/23/2014
fwiw 10 yrs back at pre fomc levels. dec contract running out of steam below 124.52 res, itself just below a trendline. if seen will set short with stop over trendline/ sept 17 high.

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 17:05 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
2-yr 0.589%
bid to cover 3.56 vs 3.48

good auction

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 16:58 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
2-yr auction upcoming

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 16:46 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
Into Next year IMO
we will see major surprises
Very ok with AUDUSD hitting parity

NZDUSD Might do that too or near

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 16:36 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
good shorts
ends week
1.1003 1.0779
Max might be around 1.1048

USDCHF Same time next year Ends

0.9185 0.7234

Near High might be 0.9500 to 0.9600 area

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 16:31 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

Selected daily USD & EUR Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data,. Click chart icon to store in tab at top of your browsers.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

Paris ib 16:23 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
Bit of a perfect storm for the AUD. Economic growth likely to slow as mining and agriculture suffer from slowing global demand. The bubble in house prices continues...... but that is all debt financed. It's been more than 20 years without a recession in the lucky country. Coming up next?

Commodity Crash

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 15:58 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
Market Conditions:
Markets have shifted to a MIXED RISK posture a of the European close  Tuesday as market concern about U.S. air strikes against ISIS in Syria have been fading.  Equities generally have stabilized and the bid for bonds has faded. The  EURUSD is down from earlier.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have risen from earlier.. The 10-yr bund is 1.013%, +0.10% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.485% -2.1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.547%, -1.5.1bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed . Bourses in Europe are closing lower. U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:44 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

EURUSD 1 hour chart updated - note the pause below the 200 hour mva but downside still holding above 1.28590

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Paris ib 15:29 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
I don't know what the problem is, everyone is convinced of the correctness of the U.S. position, which is why the U.S. bombing is taking place alongside so many other counties, not.

The U.S. gains more support

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:25 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
European indices were broadly weaker this morning, dragging down US futures and setting up for a third consecutive session of equity losses in New York. Indices ran back into positive territory in the first hour of trading, however they have dropped right back into the red mid morning US Market Update: Correction Enters Day Three

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Mtl JP 15:13 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile
0 claims coalition taking fight to Islamic State
Stocks droop

Ask Your Advocate: How Do You Find the Path of Least Resistance?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:03 GMT 09/23/2014  - My Profile

Ask Your Advocate: I take it you still see stronger USD as the "downhill flow of the stream"? Without being able to see the relative number, size + price levels of the buy/sell orders by the major players it hard to tell at times.

Your Advocate Says: The trend in the dollar remains up and buying it has been the path of least resistance since mid-summer. Picking the weak currency to sell during this period has been the most profitable way to trade this trend as the market has taken turns selling currencies, such as

Ask Your Advocate: How Do You Find the Path of Least Resistance?

Livingston nh 14:55 GMT 09/23/2014
Retail sales weakness, lower energy price and core CPI rising bodes ill for GDP - BoC may have difficulty hiking if CPI does not retreat // 1.12 in range

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