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FOREX FORUM
26/10/14 1:00 A SUNDAY con: pre:
26/10/14 1:00 UK/EZ Clocks -1hr con: n/a pre: n/a
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Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:03 GMT 10/25/2014  - My Profile
...
Entry: Target: Stop:

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Event filled week - ECB stress tests and the FOMC

EBOLA
dc CB 00:22 GMT 10/25/2014
The announcement comes one day after an American doctor, who had worked in Guinea and returned to New York City earlier in October, tested positive for Ebola and became the first New York patient of the deadly virus.

“A voluntary Ebola quarantine is not enough,” said Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York. “This is too serious a public health situation.”

The rapid escalation of screening measures came as a surprise after a day in which public officials had gone to great lengths to ease public anxiety.

It was also taken without consulting the New York City health department, according to a senior city official.

Earlier in the day, the White House sidestepped questions about whether a quarantine of health care workers was being considered.

It was also taken without consulting the New York City health department, according to a senior city official.

Earlier in the day, the White House sidestepped questions about whether a quarantine of health care workers was being considered.

New York and New Jersey Tighten Ebola Screenings at Airports


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
dc CB 00:14 GMT 10/25/2014
Mtl JP 16:18 GMT October 24, 2014 -
SnP bataille royale

seemed so far away when it crossed on Tues and set up the next target. 1970...now it's a mere 10pt away.

Emini


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 20:22 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
CLOSING LEVELS...



CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:56 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Will you be able to "get out", or will the markets just shut down
dc CB 19:55 GMT 10/24/2014
Yesterday we also saw NYSE Euronext 'break' into the European melt-up close, and later that day, as Ebola headlines hit, the market once again broke numerous times with various exchanges declaring self-help against one another as stocks tumbled on heavy volume. If you are wondering how it is that "the great stock markets in the world" can break so often (and be so ignored by financial media), Nanex exposes the act... as massive quote spamming yesterday sent OPRA to full capacity (broke the efficient flow of data in markets) 13 times...

As Nanex's Eric Hunsader explains each peak over 10 milloin quotes per second - ocurring after a sale of 1025 S&P 500 e-mini contracts - temporarily maxed capacity at OPRA and broke markets... (and a 15 point insta-plunge occurred)

(Nanex Charts)

Why The Market Kept Breaking Yesterday


Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions




Click on chart for COT Details






Click on chart for COT Details




eurusd
Tallinn viies 19:38 GMT 10/24/2014
160k shorts still. plus 50k.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 19:10 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
SUNDAY
11:00 EZ Bank Stress Tests
MONDAY
09:00 DE IFO Climate top German Sentiment Survey
13:45 US Markit SVC PMI flash New PMI indicator
14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Existing Homes Sales
TUESDAY
00:50 JP Retail Sales Retail demand
12:30 US Dur Goods Mfg demand
14:00 US CB Consumer Conf Key Sentiment Survey
WEDNESDAY
18:00 FRB Fed Rates No Rate Change
21:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rates
23:50 JP Ind Out  Production
THURSDAY
08:55  DE unemployment
12:30  US Initial Claims
12:30  US GDP broadest growth measure
FRIDAY
00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
10:00 EZ FL HICP  ECB target
12:30  US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55  US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey


EBOLA
PAR 18:29 GMT 10/24/2014
Ebola stocks leading US stock markets higher . One man's death is another's bread .

Fed Decision next Wednesday
SaaR KaL 17:46 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
I work my own models
Nothing Else.. ;)

Fed Decision next Wednesday
PAR 17:44 GMT 10/24/2014
You have been talking to central bankers ?

Fed Decision next Wednesday
SaaR KaL 17:40 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
JP/
Economists these days earned their degrees from McDonald..

USDJPY will crash, NDX will too
Housing ^HGX is east
this coming year

I meet American, British, Korean, Japanese Economists from the UN...all PhD Non knows how to compute elasticity of anything...
Oh forget AI, Fuzzy Logic...and General Equilibrium...they had no clue what it was...
these dudes are freeloaders with lots of words and no guarantee (Cause they can not)



CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 17:40 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile

17:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
European markets closed in a RISK-Off posture ahead  of the ECB bank stress tests on Sunday. As expected some of the results have already been leaked.  In Far East trade, equities ended mixed.  European bourses closed broadly weaker. U.S. shares are trading higher.

U.S. 10-yr yields are lower. 10-yr yields in bunds close down, while gilts ended steady. Peripheral bond yields closed mostly higher.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.



CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 17:30 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
stox UP only less than 0.3%.
not impossible they end near flat on the day
(not same as will)

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 17:16 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD I do ot think wants 1.28 next week
anyways, a buy 1.2600 to 1.2578 tgt 1.28+ for following week

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 17:09 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
ALthough bullish gold
will short here till 1239
tgt 1212
Longing next week from 1212 to 1202 to tgt 1240 again

Fed Decision next Wednesday
Mtl JP 16:44 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
Forex john 14:31 ... a note from a brother ?

Why one economist says no recession until at least 2016

“The reality is that bear markets do not just pop out of the air,” he said. “They are caused by tight money, recessions, or both. These conditions do not apply, nor will they until 2016 at the earliest.”

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 16:37 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
stox thinking they are a stairway to heaven and onto the moon ?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
london red 16:28 GMT 10/24/2014
s&p 75/76 futs 6 pts lower. still a target. then a pullback youd expect. think until fomc a break is a bridge too far.

FRANCE
PAR 16:25 GMT 10/24/2014
French unemployment rises in September to hit new record high

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 16:18 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile


SnP bataille royale

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 16:14 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
Paris ib another bone for you:

Before his speech in Jackson Hole, Draghi sought advice from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer - rtrs

"If a person is important,people will line up to visit him even if he lives in a remote mountain village..If a person is not important,nobody will visit him even if he lives in the centre of a busy town"..(Chinese proveb).. - shanghai bc, 2006

BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 16:06 GMT 10/24/2014


Last month, when, with great amusement, we reported that "New Home Sales Explode Higher Thanks To... Record High Average New Home Prices?", we mocked the latest batch of censored data released by the US department of truth as follows:

New Home Sales rose a magnificent (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) 18% in August - the biggest monthly rise since January 1992 albeit with a 16.3 90% confidence interval, meaning the final number may well be +1.7%. At 504k, new home sales are back at May 2008 levels (though obviously massively below the 1.4 million homes sold at the peak in 2005). As a reminder, May's 504K new home sales print was later revised later to 458K. But even more stunning, new home sales in The West rose a mind-numbing 50% in August (and up 84.4% YoY - nearly double).

Well, it is now a month later, and here come the revisions: first, that 50% surge in the West was revised... 30K lower. But to get a sense of just how bad the revision was, here is the old, pre-revision data, and the "data" following the latest revision.

The Housing Recovery Has Been Canceled Due To Data Revisions


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 15:48 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
ACHTUNG !!
SnP making 2x top high

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 15:42 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
•ECB to deliver its Comprehensive Assessment on Sunday

FOMC to end QE but leave forward guidance broadly unchanged

•Modest uptick in euro area inflation to do little to ease slowdown fears

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - FOMC ON TRACK TO END QE BUT GLOBAL HEADWINDS PERSIST


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:19 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
Stress tests due at 11:00 GMT on Sunday

BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 14:59 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
As Paul Craig Roberts put it:

My Ph.D. dissertation chairman, who became a high Pentagon official assigned to wind down the Vietnam war, in answer to my question about how Washington gets Europeans to always do what Washington wants replied: “Money, we give them money.” “Foreign aid?” I asked. “No, we give the European political leaders bagfuls of money. They are for sale, We bought them. They report to us.”

So when Europeans or Japanese make decisions which are clearly not in their interests the explanation is relatively simple. It remains to be seen if the U.S. has bought enough politicians to push a European QE through. They managed with Japan. We shall see.

We bought them


CRUDE
PAR 14:58 GMT 10/24/2014
FXStreet (Mumbai) - WTI Crude Oil declined today as markets gained more clarity over Saudi’s Crude policy.

WTI Crude is trading 2% down at USD 80.44/barrels, down from a high of USD 82.37/barrel. Moreover, Saudi Arabia ‘s crude oil production increased in September, even though the supply was reduced. The sell-off in crude prices indicates that markets are more interested in seeing an actual cut in the crude oil production.

Crude prices also came under pressure after a first case of Ebola was confirmed in the US, which sparked fresh concerns over the spread of the virus. Moreover, Risk assets across the globe came under pressure today due to the Ebola concerns.

WTI Crude Technical levels

WTI crude has an immediate support of 80.05, below which prices can fall to 79.38 levels. Meanwhile, prices may rise to 82.36 levels if the immediate resistance of 81.17 is breached.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:56 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
After European Clocks move back by an hour early Sunday, the time gap between New York and London markets will shrink to four hours from five until North American clocks move back an hour one week later.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:55 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
Out of AUDUSD Longs ...relongs from 0.8620 area

GVI Forex Blog 14:51 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
October 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, October 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB/EZ- Clocks Back one hour, DE- IFO Survey, US- flash Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 27, 2014


Fed Decision next Wednesday
Mtl JP 14:51 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
the benevolence displayed by the FED out of "fear of the future damage it may do" is surely worthy of some Nobel recognition , particularly in light of recent global growth fears that polluted recent headlines.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile


October 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, October 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB/EZ- Clocks Back one hour, DE- IFO Survey, US- flash Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB/EZ- Clocks Back one hour, DE- IFO Survey
  • North America: US- flash Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales



GLOBAL-VIEW FORUMS ARE EASY TO USE!
GVI Forex john 14:36 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
Click on the title of any post and you can see the complete discussion of a topic.

For Example, Click on the BREAKING NEWS title and you will get all the data news, charts, calendar posts, etc. for the current week.

Fed Decision next Wednesday
GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
As I look at the markets, economy etc., as a comprehensive picture, I don't see any pressing need for the Fed to do much next week. We know that the Asset Purchase Program has outlived its useful life and the central Bank would love to be done with this program for fear of the future damage it may do. I expect it to be trimmed again or eliminated, but for the doves to keep interest rate policy on hold.

I don't expect this meeting to have a major impact on the USD, but we will be keeping a constant watch into the meeting.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:24 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
ib 13:58 the German does count. Probably as an anti-character in the Kabuki. The printer , however, trumps. There is a reason why the German is still occupied by American boot. His submission and ultimate impotence is so well illustrated by his "decision" to stop repatriation of his Gold from the Fed

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:11 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
NDX Most likely dips again into 3800 to get coffee and then back over 4070 next week
Not doing anything with it yet

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
New Homes Sales (blue line) dead flat from early 2013.

buy euro
jkt abel 14:07 GMT 10/24/2014
bought 1.2691
stop 1.2647
target 1.2850

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
New Homes Sales in September unchanged from downwardly revised August data.


BREAKING NEWS
Livingston nh 14:05 GMT 10/24/2014
JP - there's a lag of up to 3 months to closing - contract usually has contingencies, i.e., mortgage

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:03 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
what is the dif signed contracts vs closed sales?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
New Homes sales unchanged AFTER revisions. These are signed contracts, not closed sales, as in Existing Homes Sales.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
U.S. New Home Sales September 2014



ALERT
467K vs. 470K exp. vs. 504K (r 466K)prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Mtl JP 14:00 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile


interest currently approximately calm and steady

BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 13:58 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
JP - whatever that means. The Americans printed. It didn't work. So far the market has mostly ignored how badly it didn't work. However, when you add in all the tragic geopolitical mistakes the Americans have made, to compound the problem, then we are likely to see fairly soon just how badly it hasn't worked. And no, despite all the encouragement from these right wing think tanks and publications, the ECB is not about to embark on QE to save the USD. Even if half Europe's politicians and bankers are on the U.S. payroll. And yes Germany does count. And from where I'm standing: thank god for that.

BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 13:55 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
Europe - or rather the Euro Area - is currently running a current account surplus equivalent to 2.5% of annual GDP. The capital available in Europe is plenty. But if you think 'the end is nigh' and the Euro area is going to break up and so and so forth then may I suggest taking a short position on the Euro, which is currently trading at 1.2685. I have no problem taking the other side of that trade.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 13:53 GMT 10/24/2014  - My Profile
don't forget that Europeans have relatively recent experience with restructuring public and private debt: default thru hyper-printing (in Germany) and finally money exchange a la Française. It is a formula that has worked with all its pains (to most) and pleasures (to some). And a historical suggestion to leave aside personal indignation and accept that bankers have less than zero sympathy for the great unwashed.

BREAKING NEWS
Livingston nh 13:51 GMT 10/24/2014
EURzone banks got the AQR news last night - the joint fund is 50 bio EUR -- so how much is required? raising capital in some country banks will be difficult especially if bank stocks in question sell off after the report


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