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19/12/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan con: 0.10% pre: 0.10%
FOREX FORUM
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RISK ON After Dovish Yellen Comments Wednesday. Strong German IFO & U.K. Retail Sales
dc CB 20:07 GMT 12/18/2014
from ZeroHedge

Something unexpected took took place yesterday: as we showed just after the FOMC statement hit, while the "hawks" had been pre-advised by the unofficial Fed mouthpieces to watch for instances of the word "patient" as a signal of shift in monetary policy by Yellen, the "doves" were looking for just one thing: any instance of the phrase "considerable time." Or rather the Doves' algos, because if the Fed had maintained its "considerable" language it meant the coast was clear to bid up risk to the moon.

So what happened: in a completely unexpected twist, the Fed used not only the much anticipated "patient" phrase, but - in what many speculated was a hint to the word-scanning algos that the coast was all clear to buy - it also added the "considerable time" phrase within the same paragraph.


Impossible, you say. The Fed would never stoop so low as the actually collaborate with algo "nuance" analyzers in order to goose the best possible, and thus most bullish response possible.

How The Fed Masterfully Punk'd Algos Into A Stock Buying Frenzy


XAU-XAG
zurich fxtrader 20:05 GMT 12/18/2014
....imvho the big winner of the CHF negative rates.....

will be GOLD!!!!


Putin
gc sf 18:28 GMT 12/18/2014
I see Putin said under the worst case scenario it would take 2 years to fix the Currency............

On his love life: “One of my friends in Europe, a big boss, asked me recently: “Listen, do you have love in your life?” I said: “What do you mean?” He said: “Do you love anyone?” I said: “Oh, yes.” He asked if anybody loved me back, and I said: “Yes.” He obviously thought I’d become an animal. He said: “Thank God” and raised a vodka to me. So everything is fine, don’t worry.”

$Yen
gc sf 18:21 GMT 12/18/2014
so far it has pretty much traded to the range you would have expected today

the thing with it is - it is very vulnerable to spikes higher with stocks higher and BOJ later today / comments

but as I said earlier I do believe 119.50 119.80 or 120 would be a sell for move back down to 117.85.

it is really a patience game waiting for it to hit the dealing levels

short term 118.60 / 119.40
longer term it is a sell above there imo.

Gold
GVI Forex john 17:43 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
Latest Correlations...




Gold
GVI Forex john 17:34 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
Soc Gen saying Russia analysts think Russia might have started to sell some of their gold reserves. Watch the gold price. Im not sure Gold is correlating well with forex values these days. It used to trade very well with AUDUSD.

He just wanted some fresh air.
Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 17:16 GMT 12/18/2014
I see nothing wrong with it..

OIL
dc CB 17:03 GMT 12/18/2014
What did Gammy say about oil yesterday..."transitory"?, as in how many MinWage jobs does a laid-off energy worker have to hold to come up wiht $100K/year. But OH, this will only ADD to the number of Jobs Added each month. One Lost HiPay Job will "Transition" into 3.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

consider how many individuals work in American oilfields, as well as those workers that directly support those activities...

courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 812,000 as of March 2014 (the most current data available). That may not sound like a lot, but at average annual wages of $99,854/worker, this small group receives $81 billion in estimated annual compensation.

The "Unequivocally 'Not' Good" Reality Of Lower Oil Prices & Jobs


He just wanted some fresh air.
nw kw 17:01 GMT 12/18/2014
A Chinese first-time flyer has opened an emergency door in a plane to get some fresh air after china reported QE will be for bad banks not growth.

He just wanted some fresh air.
Mtl JP 16:41 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
can it be said the first time flyer was disoriented ?

He just wanted some fresh air.
HK RF@ 16:28 GMT 12/18/2014


A Chinese first-time flyer has opened an emergency door in a plane to get some fresh air. Luckily, he did not cause any harm, and the offense is being treated leniently compared to previous incidents aboard Chinese planes.

A man in his 50s on a Xiamen Air flight from Hangzhou to Chengdu on Sunday opened the emergency door of a plane before departure.

He told the attendants he just wanted some fresh air ... hope our flight won't be delayed for too long,"
a passenger wrote online, The South China Morning Post reports.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On
GVI Forex john 16:23 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile

18 December-- 16:25 GMT- Current Market Conditions
Markets yesterday moved to a robust  RISK ON posture following the Fed policy decision. Fed Chair Yellen said there should be no rate hikes for the next "couple of meetings",  and that policy is data-dependent. This is seen as dovish and pro-growth. In Europe, The German IFO survey and U.K. Retail Sales data improved. In Russia, President Putin said they would not expend lots of forex reserves defending the Rouble. U.S. data today has been mixed at best.


  • In forex, the USD is trading higher as equity prices advance. The EUR is mostly lower on its key crosses  
  • The Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are higher vs. the USD. Gold prices are up and oil is down.
  • In the Far East, equities closed mostly higher. The Japanese 10-yr JGB yield is 0.350%. -2 bp.
  • Key European bourses closing higher. The 10-yr bund yield is 0.612%, +1.9.1bp. The U.K. yield is 1.868%,  +10.8bp. European peripheral bond yields are mostly lower.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is 2.213%, +7.3bp Equities are higher.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On
GVI Forex john 16:07 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
Risk-on
10-yr 2.23% +8.3bp
S&P 2037 +22

OIL
HK RF@ 15:57 GMT 12/18/2014


55.20 looks a no brainer.

Beware of Trading Illiquid Currencies
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:44 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile


The experience with the Russian ruble (RUB) recently should be a stark reminder of the dangers of trading in an illiquid market. Not only can volatility spike and spreads widen to make a currency untradeable, but you also risk losing your liquidity provider. This happened this week when two forex brokers that we know of (there may be more) stopped quoting USDRUB. There is a good lesson to be learned from this experience and as I will explain, it goes beyond the USDRUB.

Beware of Trading Illiquid Currencies


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:31 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-64 vs. -65 exp vs. -61 prev.


Behind the Scenes
Paris ib 15:25 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
JP - exactly. Happened before and it will happen again.

GVI Forex Blog 15:24 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ, CA- CPI, Retail Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for December 19, 2014


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile


December 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, December 19, 2014. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ, CA- CPI, Retail Sales
  • Far East: JP- BOJ, Lead Indicators
  • Europe: GB- Distributive trades
  • North America: CA- CPI, Retail Sales, COT



Behind the Scenes
Mtl JP 15:18 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
increased volatility does not necessarily mean market failure.
failure would be when there is no-one on the other side . i.e. no liquidity

Behind the Scenes
nw kw 15:04 GMT 12/18/2014
bsc has lumber mils restarting for 2015 strong usa home building

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Leading Indicators November 2014
U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.60% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.90% (r +0.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Behind the Scenes
Paris ib 15:00 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
Thanks JP. Well the volatility issue is going to get bigger. I'm not surprised you are having big players stepping away from the market. Little players have to be nimble. But it does look like we are heading to some kind of market failure if this continues, which it will IMVHO.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Philly Fed Index December 2014
U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+24.5 vs. +26.0 exp. vs. +40.8 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Behind the Scenes
Mtl JP 14:59 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
ib - Basically they warn about
- no more liquid "stimulus"
- big players being less willing to play
- higher volatility
-------------------
I am biased reader so...

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:53 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Data Charts
U.S. flash Markit Service PMI. Looking pretty grim. This is a new data series, so take it with a grain of salt.


Behind the Scenes
Paris ib 14:48 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
JP - I'll make do with a summary from you thanks. Good grief 130 pages !!!!

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:46 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Markit flash Services PMI December 2014
U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
53.6 vs. n/a exp. vs. 56.2 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Behind the Scenes
Mtl JP 14:43 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
ib suggest link in Mtl JP 13:01 below
good holiday read imo

Behind the Scenes
Paris ib 14:40 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
JP - I don't much like the idea of trading it. The longer that theme continues, the thinner the ice.

Behind the Scenes
dc CB 14:37 GMT 12/18/2014
Is Obama going for a Reagan type legacy. Taking out Putin by drowing him in Oil?

IKEA Says Suspends Sales of Kitchen Appliances in Russia


Behind the Scenes
Mtl JP 14:35 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
ib that sounds like a trade-able theme

Behind the Scenes
Paris ib 14:31 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
CB - you have to give it to Janet she ticked all the boxes yesterday. No hikes for two meetings. More hawkish than expected. Kept the USD bid. Patience and data dependency kept the actual rate hikes in never, never land. Stocks liked that. Bonds not so much, but you can't have everything.

She can continue to play this game indefinitely and probably will.

Euro/Usd
nw kw 14:26 GMT 12/18/2014
jan 22 eur move to QE same day swiss moves to -rates

EURUSD 12242 confirmed
Central Kwun 14:18 GMT 12/18/2014
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

wfakhoury master, any direction on gold?

Euro/Usd
Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 14:11 GMT 12/18/2014
2320 became the add point for shorts.never rallied for that xmas present.
hitting points on cue

Behind the Scenes
dc CB 14:09 GMT 12/18/2014
taking out the 2080 with enough momo -- 2160 1st week in Jan ?

emini


EURUSD 12242 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 14:06 GMT 12/18/2014
EURUSD 12242 confirmed will be reached , return 12279 any rise above it will return to it.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level



Morning
Mtl JP 14:05 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
with a 10-20 pips slack allowance

Morning
Mtl JP 14:04 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
dlryen Res 1 119.62 probably current trgt

BREAKING NEWS
nw kw 14:02 GMT 12/18/2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in line with forecasts/4 week chart market looking at up trend

Behind the Scenes
Mtl JP 14:00 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
dc CB 13:59 target 2300 SnP ?

Behind the Scenes
dc CB 13:59 GMT 12/18/2014
dc CB 21:22 GMT December 10, 2014
Behind the Scenes:

Next week is OPEX Quad Witching....and betcha Santa is gonna come along with the Mother of all Short Covering rallies starting FMOC Press Conference, as Gammy Yellen soothes any misconceptions.


NZD/USD
jkt abel 13:58 GMT 12/18/2014
nah, easy, it will be proven later like hot butter

NZD/USD
HK RF@ 13:42 GMT 12/18/2014


50-DailySma(0.7828) may be proven very hard to breach.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:36 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in line with forecasts...



Click on chart for over ten-year history

Cuba Libre
HK RF@ 13:35 GMT 12/18/2014


Those were the days when all cabaret dancers were virgins.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT 12/18/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
U.S. Data Charts





NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
289K vs. 290K exp. vs. 294K (r 295 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.373 vs. n/a exp. vs. 2.514 (r 2.520 ) prev.
Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Cuba Libre
dc CB 13:30 GMT 12/18/2014
Gammy Claus and her boys took the 1st UBER Cig Boat run last nite.

Party like it's 1958



Next Page



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