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MIXED RISK. Data Due Today and Thursday. Equities Mixed. Focus ECB Stress Tests Results Sunday
GVI Forex Blog 09:23 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- CPI, CA- Retail Sales, Bank of Canada Decision

Today U.S. CPI, Canadian Retail Sales and the latest Bank of Canada policy decision will be released. Australia quarterly CPI data for 3Q14 were tame, but seemed to have a mild deflationary bias. The latest BOE meeting Minutes showed a 7-2 vote for an unchanged policy, as expected. The vote was taken before the latest tame UK inflation data.

MIXED RISK. Data Due Today and Thursday. Equities Mixed. Focus ECB Stress Tests Results Sunday

Mtl JP 09:22 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
Oct 22 (Reuters) - The incoming head of the EU executive, Jean-Claude Juncker, told the European Parliament on Wednesday that he would present his 300-billion-euro plan for investment to bolster growth and jobs by the end of this year. .../..
what a grand idea ! couple that to Marios "buying" of corp bonds... what could possibly cause the plan go into the ditch ?

GVI Forex 09:14 GMT 10/22/2014
ECB offucial says re stress tests report that everything at this point is "highly speculative".

Mtl JP 09:05 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
Oct 21 2014 (Reuters) - Ukraine has requested an extra 2 billion euros ($2.55 billion) and EU authorities will consider the loan request together with the International Monetary Fund, a European Commission spokesman said on Tuesday.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile

09:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
Early in European trade, markets are in  MIXED RISK posture heading into a more active data period and ECB bank stress test results this weekend. Equities in Far East trade ended mostly higher. European bourses are mixed. U.S. share futures are up lower.

U.S. 10-yr yields are down. 10-yr yields in bunds and gilts are down as well. Peripheral bond yields are lower, Volatile Greek yields are down sharply.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

london red 08:52 GMT 10/22/2014
appears to have lost momentum so cut for 7 points

GVI Forex 08:51 GMT 10/22/2014
130 banks were evaluated
failing Banks
4 Greece
3 Italy
2 Austria

missing 2 in story.

Results due on Sunday

GVI Forex 08:45 GMT 10/22/2014
At least 11 banks will fail stress tests -- Spanish press

sd sf 08:35 GMT 10/22/2014
Good Stuff ... heading off and leaving the bots do the work and see what they got Asia Open tomorrow .. good hunting.

GVI Forex 08:30 GMT 10/22/2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes


Rates:Tighten = 2 Unchanged =7 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0

Bank of England

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GVI Forex 08:29 GMT 10/22/2014
EARLIER: 1Q14 CPI in line. AUD Rises.

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London London 08:22 GMT 10/22/2014
Entry: Target: Stop:

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New Signal: BUY USD/CAD @ 1.12324. at 2014.10.21
S.L - 45
T.P + 45

Posted with permission of

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GVI Forex john 08:18 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
3Q14 Australia CPI


QQ: 0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
YY: +2.30% vs. +2.30% exp. vs. +3.00% prev.

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london red 08:07 GMT 10/22/2014
long at 86 stop at 77. looking for trendline retest and take it from there.

GVI Forex 08:05 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
Minutes of the BoE’s October MPC meeting are released this morning. The minutes of the September MPC meeting maintained the 7-2 vote split, with Weale and McCafferty continuing to prefer an immediate 25 bps increase in Bank Rate. But there is little to suggest that further members will have been swayed by developments prior to the October meeting to join the dissenters. In the absence of tangible signs of inflationary pressure, either in price or wage data, and a still-fragile outlook for the euro area, our view remains that the Committe will continue to exercise restraint, before beginning the process of normalising interest rates in Q1 2015. Labour market data released subsequent to the meeting, which points to a continued rapid absorption of spare capacity and stirrings of wage inflation, suggest some scope for the split vote to persist in the months ahead. Martin Weale is scheduled to speak later in the evening. It will be interesting to hear any comments from him regarding recent market gyrations, and if that has changed his assessment of the appropriate mone

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

PAR 07:35 GMT 10/22/2014
Carl Icahn says high-yield 'junk' bond market in a bubble - CNBC

Oct 21 (Reuters) - Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn said on Tuesday he thinks the high-yield "junk" bond market is still in a bubble despite the asset class's recent selloff.

london red 07:31 GMT 10/22/2014
theyve done the trendline now at 02-05 depending on the timeframe (daily is 02) so its a question of high high it bounces if it can take out some res or does the rot set in earlier 23/26/29 ahead of the others
cpi is the big one and a beat would be a v big surprise. but other inflation data has missed in usa recently.

sd sf 07:21 GMT 10/22/2014
US CPI maybe enough -- anything positive would be able to keep eurusd offered ... or some off the cuff EuroLand comment should be good for 40-50 pts.

They tried to buy for 2-2.5 hours yesterday before it dropped - so seems bit more time left to see if that works out again.

Tallinn viies 07:13 GMT 10/22/2014
1,2625/30 target today. most likely 1,2740/45 contains all upmoves. if not then 1,2785 should be max today.

london red 06:55 GMT 10/22/2014
i was looking for 47 myself. the plan was to be short well abv support in the event of a break. and in the event of a bounce id still be able to pull some profit from the short once i saw the reaction at the support. i prefer not to chase markets as stops often need to be more generous. today im still using 41 47 88/90 and 2806. on the down 2705 2695 89 86 45.
data is a bit light today in euroland and doubt boe minutes will have too much effect on the euro thru the cross but we may get more flash comments on corporate bond buying

AceTrader Oct 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Hong Kong AceTrader 06:51 GMT 10/22/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

22 Oct 2014

USD/JPY - ...... News report about Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Japanese PM Shinzo Abe said that the next sales tax hike should be delayed by a year and half, until Apr 2017, given the big risk that the tax increase would pose for the country's fragile economy.

Honda made the comments to reporters after a meeting of more than 40 ruling party lawmakers who are growing wary about the planned sales tax hike late next year.
"There's a great danger from the next sales tax hike given the current situation where positive effects of Abenomics and negative impact of April's sales tax hike are offsetting each other," he said, referring to Abe's reflationary policies.

"So I told them that the next tax hike should be postponed by a year and half until April 1, 2017" after Japan can ensure that deflation is conquered, he said.

Honda said Abe remained neutral on a sales tax decision. He added that postponing the planned tax hike won't cause a loss of market confidence in Japan's public finances, but it would rather help boost share prices because such decision would be seen supportive for the economy.

Earlier, Japan's trade data was released with both positive & negative interpretations.
Reuters reported 6.exports in September expanded at the fastest pace in 7 months by 6.9% annually due partly to yen's weakness. However, imports climbed sharply to 6.2 % (vs forecast of 3.0%) due to weak yen.
Therefore, yen's weakness works in favour of the Japanese exporters but against importers. The trade balance came to a deficit of 958.3 bln yen (8.96 bln USD) vs estimated 777.0 bln yen deficit.

Under performing exports have been one of the weak links in the Japanese economy, which is struggling to cope with an Apr hike in the sales tax to 8% fm 5%. Japan's economy shrank an annualised 7.1% in the 2nd quarter, with the tax hike causing the biggest contraction since the 2009 global financial crisis.

The economy is forecast to resume expansion in the 3rd quarter, but the pace could be very slow, which would fuel speculation that the gov't will delay a second sales tax hike to 10% scheduled for next year.

sd sf 06:27 GMT 10/22/2014
EUR seems a replay of the exact same price action as yesterday

I'm not sure EUR can go above 1.2740/50/60 - as to me feels the market is still quite long + more likely to test 1.2660-70

obviously totally data dependent so have to see how that part of it plays out.

GVI Forex Blog 04:54 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 CONSUMER PRICES (CPI) Q/Q: 0.5% (matches 5-quarter low) V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.3% (1-year low) V 2.3%E; TRIMMED MEAN Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.5%E ; Y/Y: 2.5% (1-year low) V 2.7%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA SE Asian Market Update: Risk-on restored as global investors leave the safety of US treasuries; Australia annual CPI slows to 1-year lows - Source

sd sf 04:52 GMT 10/22/2014
as far as $yen goes - I think we can still see a dip down to 58-60 where it should hold for a test of 107.45

if breaks 58-60 strongly then the upside is over and the top is in.

its hard to say 100% at this point due to the fact we need to see LDN + NYK first to see what range they scout around - and where they close their sessions.

Hopefully the Europe Guys can add their thoughts when they come into the market. GT.

Provo John 02:49 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
Easy solution, just charge a PIA fee that is the same as the tariff. China wants it bad enough so they will pay it.

Sydney ACC 02:27 GMT 10/22/2014
Local analysts believe it is a tactical move by the Chinese to push the Australians to accept a free-trade agreement prior to G20 meeting in Brisbane next month.
Indonesia has a free-trade agrteement with China. Their coal shipments were exempted from the tariff.

AceTrader Oct 22: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:19 GMT 10/22/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Oct 2014 01:45GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The pair pares yesterday's gain and retreats in Tokyo morning due to intra-day broad-based pullback in the greenback following yesterday's rally together with present retreat in the Nikkei (the N225 trimmed initial 325-point gain, now at 15025, up by 221 points).

Despite extending o/n rise in NY session to 107.11 in Australia, selling interest emerged after dlr showed muted reaction on Japan's trade data, price retreated to 106.86 in Asian morning.
Looks like range trading is in store and as long as the Nikkei can hold on to intra-day gain after yesterday's broad-based rise in global stocks, buying on dips is favoured.
Bids are noted at 106.80-70 and more below with some stops below 106.50. Initial offers are tipped at 107.05/15 with stops above 107.20, more stops are touted above 107.40.

Data to be released on Wednesday include:

the release of Japan imports, exports and trade balance,
Australia inflation,
BoE minutes,
UK BoE MPC vote,
Canada retail sales,
BoC rate decision,
U.S. weekly earnings and CPI.

shanghai bc 01:47 GMT 10/22/2014

China's Iron and Coal Tarrifs are just one of the tactics to get a better bargain with monopoly suppliers..

Till 1995,China was a big exporter in Oil and Coal..Things have moved really fast in China..The demand for iron and coal is likely to be very strong for a few more decades..Cyclical ups and downs is highly unlikely to stop the mega trend in modernization in China..

shanghai bc 01:29 GMT 10/22/2014

Red,Thanks..I have been learing from everyone here..

All the best to you..

sd sf 01:23 GMT 10/22/2014
the Nikkei is just moving a little lower

range been 15055/15150 just a few pts bounce off the low @70 now.

shanghai bc 01:18 GMT 10/22/2014

LJ BK,Thanks..Hope you are fine..

All the best..

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:50 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile
* Euro near one-week low after ECB corporate bond buy report

* U.S. housing data, tech earnings, China data help risk appetite, dent yen

FOREX-Euro on defensive after ECB bond buy report, yen slips

GVI Forex 00:39 GMT 10/22/2014  - My Profile

sd sf 00:20 GMT 10/22/2014
I thought they introduced coal tariffs - I'm not sure on Steel.

"BEIJING – China has intimated its new coal tariff may be waived on Australian imports if a free trade agreement between the two countries is struck, Treasurer Joe Hockey has said, raising the stakes further on the protracted negotiations.
In Beijing on Tuesday ahead of the APEC Finance Ministers' meetings, the treasurer raised his "surprise and disappointment" in a meeting with Chinese counterpart Lou Jiwei at China's abrupt move to reinstate tariffs of 3 per cent on metallurgical coal and 6 per cent on thermal coal. Australian coal, the country's second-largest export after iron ore, was expected to be the worst affected among the world's producers.
It was understood Mr Lou defended the tariffs, which were reintroduced this month, saying they were aimed purely at aiding struggling Chinese coal producers, and were in no way a negotiating tactic directed at the Australian free trade talks.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott hoped to sign the deal with President Xi Jinping during his visit to Australia next month for the G20 leaders' meeting."

sd sf 00:16 GMT 10/22/2014
really slow day here so far

maybe people are bit confused by the EUR drop .... not quite sure what to make of it .. and making it hard to leverage into other positions... compared to our more normal day.

anyway AUD data in 15 minutes -- see what happens there.

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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:43 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

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Ebola in the USA
dc CB 23:20 GMT 10/21/2014

yeh dude, tomorrow's my first day at work. I should dial back a bit. Hey man, thanks for the Job and really really, thanks for giving me time to to chill before the Big Woop.

Feel Safe?

"White House spokesman Eric Schultz confirmed that Klain, who starts work Wednesday, would take home a paycheck, but he said the amount would only be revealed in the annual disclosure of White House staff salaries.

Klain was spotted at the White House over the weekend and has met with chief of staff Denis McDonough and other senior administration officials, Schultz said. But Klain was not part of an all-hands meeting on Saturday night and will not testify at a House Oversight Committee hearing on the Ebola crisis Wednesday.

CZAR: To defend and protect

GVI Forex john 22:35 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

October 21, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, October 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- CPI, CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision
  • Far East: AU- CPI
  • Europe: GB- BOE Minutes
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, CPI, Weekly Crude. CA- Retail Sales, BOC Decision

NY JM 22:13 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Nice catch up in USDJPY and good alert here to its lag

dc CB 21:53 GMT 10/21/2014

the risk is wide, due to the angle of the ramp. Everyone one of the downside targets got hit...looking at the -23% as targets.

that said, will not be looking to short for now..flat. Margin for a single Emini is over 5 grand on my platform... so those without need not apply.

see this ZH... never happened before. Command And Control. Swing it if you've got the jingle in-yo-pocket. Playhouse for Da Big Boys (dose dat use otha peoples money)

All the NYFED traders who got the job, when asked the question, "how big a risk would you take", answered: "it's not MY, the point is To WIN as ordered."

Never, in the history of VIX - the so-called 'fear-index' - has this ever happened before...

The last 3 days have seen VIX drop 12.74%, 15.55%, and 13.4% today... VIX has NEVER dropped more than 10% for 3 days in a row ever

VIX Has Never Done This Before... Ever

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 21:41 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

Mtl JP 21:32 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
CB 21:21 it is been a breathless up-hill:
it blew N of 20ma to stop just under the 100ma at 1942.97
your target coincides with 1 StdD off the 20ma 1976.47
what odds u give it ?

GVI Forex john 21:27 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
01:30 AU CPI -- RBA target   
08:30 GB BOE Minutes-- key part of policy
12:30 CA Retail Sales--  key demand measure  
12:30 US CPI -- Fed targets inflation
14:00 CA BOC Rates+MPR -- policy seen steady
23:45 NZ 3Q CPI RBNZ-- targets inflation
01:45 CN HSBC flash PM-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE MFG PMI flash-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE SVC PMI flash -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG PMI -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash SVC PMI -- universal economic survey
08:30 GB Ret Sls --key demand measures
12:30 US Initial Claims--freshest jobs data  
13:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash-- universal economic survey
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US New Homes Sales-- housing measure

Mtl JP 21:23 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
viies 21:18 I am short gbpusd for low 1.60.. target on similar to yours euro expectation.
Hope we ll be both right

dc CB 21:21 GMT 10/21/2014
so it broke and closed above, by a tad.

since the Emini is the trade of choice for the after hours ramps---see today's charts if you doubt it---then it's worth taking note of the next target - 1969-1970.


Tallinn viies 21:18 GMT 10/21/2014
as euro closed at the lows of the day. Im not buyer today.
trying to sell on upticks. first near 1,2780.
first downside target 1,2680. then 1,2645 and 1,2605.
all possible within next 24 hours by my logic

Mtl JP 21:13 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile

nh 20:35 re SnP : despite valiant effort for downtrend to definitely reverse probably need to see solid priceaction above the 76% level
see chart

Mtl JP 20:54 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
nh 5% price increase with a decrease in energy costs = bright(er) future profits. What could go wrong ?

Paris ib 20:40 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Any details on that report? Seems a little strange to me that the Chinese would announce tariffs and then drop them days later. Any further information or is it just a headline?

World steel growth

GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Weekly US API DatA

(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +1.200 vs. +3.0000 exp vs. +8.900 prev.
Gasoline: -0.500 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -4.000 prev.
Distillates: -0.800 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.520 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.70% vs. N/A exp vs. 88.10% prev.

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