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Final August 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment Final U of M data outperforms expectations. Data revised up more in line with the Conference Board survey.

Final August 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

82.5 vs. 80.2 exp. vs. 79.2 preliminary

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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August 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
london red 13:55 GMT 08/29/2014
pmi corrected last time freak print. youd fancy confidence to beat as well, given other confidence related numbers stronger. maybe we can break tight ranges after the options cut.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 13:49 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
SHort at 104.08

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 13:48 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
What is shutting down the government mean?

Perry is probabaly making money from the drug Cartels + Weapons Contract

He wants to do both here in one speech (This is really ridiculous!!)

Gov SHut Down?

August 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

64.3 vs. 56.2 exp. vs. 52.6 prev.


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GVI Forex 13:43 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Said to be stronger than consensus ... note subscribers get it early

GVI Forex john 13:03 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Press report the terror alert level for UK has been raised. Keep in mind we are nearing the 9/11 anniversary. Apparently due to intelligence from Syria and Iraq. Level raised from "Substantial" to "Severe". No specific threat cited.

July 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator
GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
U.S. CPI and Core PCE Deflator. Fed Targets PCE Deflator. Still below target,

July 2014 Canada: GDP
GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

m/m +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.

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July 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

Personal Income +0.20% v +0.30% exp v +0.40% (r +0.50%) pre
PCE Defl +1.50% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.

RELEASE: Personal Income

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Obama to Speak
dc CB 12:17 GMT 08/29/2014

on the course, with a plan. a Labor Day golf outing

london red 12:15 GMT 08/29/2014
cad gdp f/c 2.7 but talk of c. 3% some estimates much higher. a strong number should help pair towards 1.0809 fib with further support at 1.0764. ultimately the trendline comes in at 1.07 and dips should be used to load up longs ahead of BoC meeting next week and the next leg of the dollar rally, particularly if todays US data doesnt disappoint.
a weak number fancies a move to and thru the 200 day to 1.0908 fib which was a level of good support.

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
Livingston nh 11:53 GMT 08/29/2014
The risk for the ECB is that any program that passes for QE (as promulgated by the pointy heads) risks further deflation - EU trade zone lacks a common Sovereign bond sufficient to support ECB buying - in a way that is a blessing because as seen in the US buying sovereign bonds is form of hoarding - negative interest rates in a saver based economy (similar but not as extreme as Japan's) is another // the MONEY in whatever form must move - the conduit in EU is banks not bonds - don't reward stagnant money

Raise the price of the commodity you can control and credibly promise higher costs to adjust expectations -- this is what the ECB should consider

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 11:49 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Lots of data set for release today but I don't think much is likely to be market moving. EZ HICP is unlikely to force the hand of the ECB on Thursday. If you scroll down at look at the HICP chart you will see that core HICP has not fallen by as much as the Headline reading. The chart in part reflects the impact of falling energy prices.

The chart also illustrates the utility of core inflation measurements because they take out the impact of volatile prices from broader inflation measures.

Absent surprise political headlines, I expect most to take a low profile today.

Day's Trades
Sydney ACC 11:25 GMT 08/29/2014
Not much call for that in Sydney.

Risk Off
PAR 10:49 GMT 08/29/2014
US stock and bond markets moving higher ahead of long labor day weekend . S&P to open at new record high.

EURJPY moving higher and USDJPY targetting 105 .

Lets party .

I am of to the beach .

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 10:35 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Support #1 1.3156
Resistance #1.3217

parameters working so far.
Support #1 tested (1.3160 LOD)

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
New York Pivot Points 10:30 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data.. Basis previous session ranges...

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:20 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
The Euro Zone Flash CPI estimate was the highlight of the session and was potential the final piece of the puzzle to the ECB policy outlook. There were no surprises and still left the debate open for the ECB whether it would take on fresh measures or continue to pause and watch the effects from its historic June move. EU Market Update: Euro Zone CPI Flash Estimate reading of 0.3% lowest since 2009 but unclear if it is enough for ECB to act again

EZ flash HICP in Line with Expectations. German Retail Sales Weak
GVI Forex Blog 09:39 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Personal Income & PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Survey

Today, the U.S. releases Personal Income, the Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan Sentiment. A key focus is still the upcoming ECB decision next Thursday.There was a report that that no new ECB action is likely. Some U.S. markets close early today

EZ flash HICP in Line with Expectations. German Retail Sales Weak

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:36 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
the tricky FX Mkt..
USDCAD from 1.0845 to 1.090 then drops into 1.073...then rallies into 1.115
How tricky can it anything get?
Climate Vs. of the same...but slightly different

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
Mtl JP 09:33 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
ACC 09:25 not sure what or why u be pressing anything ...

I bot irons at local church basement for buck a piece, I use em to spread wax on my x-country skis or melt ice n snow off windshield in winter.

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
Sydney ACC 09:25 GMT 08/29/2014
Check your gas and electricity bills.

Our gas bill has risen 86% since August 2011, electricity is up 63% over the same period, yet the CPI has hovered between 2% and 3% per annum over that period. Why? Because the price of electronics and motor vehicles has declined. But how often does one buy a TV set, kettle, motor car etc. Anmd then the qual;ity of products is nowhere near as good before they were made in China. I've replaced five irons under warranty in the last three years.

Japan Retail Sales
GVI Forex john 09:23 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile


0.50% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.60% prev.

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August 2014 EZ flash HICP
PAR 09:16 GMT 08/29/2014
The same Economists who are telling you about the effects of deflation are the same ones who never saw the financial crisis coming

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
PAR 09:15 GMT 08/29/2014
I suppose the new IPhone will be cheaper than the previous one ?

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
GVI Forex john 09:13 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Par that is true everywhere. We just have to play the hand we are dealt.

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
PAR 09:06 GMT 08/29/2014
Maybe there is something wrong with the way they calculate those figures . What I personnaly buy is definitely more expensive than last year . A bottle of Rosé is more expensive , newspapers are more expensive , restaurants are more expensive etc.

For every person inflation is different on what you buy and where you buy it .

Imho inflation figures are widely manipulated to make financing government deficits easier .

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
GVI Forex john 09:05 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) working lower. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target. Data may not be a game changer for Thursday

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
london red 09:03 GMT 08/29/2014
as f/c which will disappoint those looking for qe next week. qe is firmly off the table, but they can introduce it formally next week. but between now and then euro should catch a bid. it will however be offered due to ukraine. so blips higher should be sold. 40/50 and 90 is maximum it should go, with a move abv 1.3333 required for a change in short term trend.

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
No smoking gun. EURUSD higher.

August 2014 EZ flash HICP
GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

yy: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
yy +0.90%: vs. vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.

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Japan July/August Data
GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
JA CPI... Japanese CPI. The impact of the Sales tax increase still in these data.

Japan July/August Data
GVI Forex john 08:54 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

3.80% vs. 3.70% exp. vs. 3.70% prev.

Core yy
yy: 3.30% vs. +3.30% exp. vs. +3.30%% prev.

National yy:
3.40% vs. +3.40% exp. vs. +3.60% prev.

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Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 08:50 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
European markets are on hold waiting for the flash August EZ HICP report shortly as it awaits the key ECB meting on Thursday. The instability in Ukraine remains an issue into the weekend.  The EURUSD  is holding below the 1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are marginally higher. The 10-yr bund is 0.900%  +2.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.390%  +2.0bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.343%, +0.9bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

July 2014 German Retail Sales
GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
EARLIER: German Monthly Retail Sales data much weaker than expected, but y/y data gains..

July 2014 German Retail Sales
GVI Forex john 08:21 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

Earlier News ALERT
mm: -1.40% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +1.30% (+1.00%) prev.
yy: +0.70% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +0.40% (r +0.10%) prev.

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Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:21 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
although excited to long USDCAD for 1.1150 tgt
will stay disaplined .... Not today
Maybe next week
1.0750 area probably

.. Might even touch 1.09 today...but still
1.0750 to 1.0720 are is my entry
...Might even short it at 1.09 if seen

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 08:09 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
Gold US Session Close
1302.204504 1286.180765

Want to long 1283 to 1280
tgt max 1303
Might be a boring friday folks

GBPUSD and GOLD Heros of today
Ternopil SMV 08:06 GMT 08/29/2014
Mr. wfakhoury. according to your previous confirmed levels for this pairs, big move gonna be up, right?

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 07:57 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile
GBPCHF...been long since the day before
from 1.5160
now reversing into shorts from 1.5220 area
tgt min 1.5120

waiting for eurusd around 1.3250 and cable 1.6650 to short

AceTrader Aug 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:30 GMT 08/29/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

29 Aug 2014

GBP/USD - .... 2 pieces of news to suggest selling eur/gbp cross is the way to go after yesterday's downbeat EZ economic sentiment. Earlier on Fri, data from research firm GfK showed consumer confidence edged up in the U.K. in Aug, driven by the fast improvement of the economy during the last year.

GfK's consumer confidence index increased to +1 in August from -2 in previous month. GfK said the improvement in consumer confidence largely reflects a reassessment of the recent past by households, although people are also increasingly optimistic about the future. However, Nick Moon, MD of social research at GfK said 'There is no guarantee how long this stable position will last - a rush of good or bad economic news could set off a marked rise or fall - but things could stay like this for a while,.'

The survey also registered an increase in the consumers' will to both save and make major purchases, such as furniture or electrical goods. These results are consistent with the recent CBI Distributive Trades Survey, which showed a great majority of businesses reporting higher sales volumes, with furniture retailers ranking on top.

Reuters reported, 'Of the 142 firms surveyed in the CBI's distributive trades survey, a balance of +25% of retailers expected their overall business situation to improve over the next three months, which was the highest since May 2002.' 'The CBI added that 51% said sales in August were up on a year ago, while 14% said they were down. That gave a balance of +37%, up on July's +21% n matching Feb's 21-month high.'

Cable swung wildly in volatile session on Thursday. Although the pound rose in tandem with euro n briefly climbed above Wednesday's high at 1.6606 to 1.6615 in Europe, renewed tensions in Ukraine triggered broad-based buying in dlr and cable briefly fell to 1.6567. Later, price rebounded to 1.6599 on cross-buying of sterling vs eur & yen and then chopped inside 1.6567-1.6599 in NY session.

The failure to close above 1.6600 level after a second day testing Thursday suggests consolidation with downside bias remains and selling cable on recovery for marginal weakness below Mon's 4-1/2 is is recommended. Offers from various accounts are noted up from 1.6590 to 1.6610 and more at 1.6630-40 with stops emerging above 1.6650. On the downside, bids are placed at 1.6550-40 and then 1.6525/20 with demand from real money accounts located around 1.6500.

On the data front, U.K. will release the nationwide house prices in August at 06:00GMT. Market forecasts the reading to be unchanged at 0.1% in monthly basis but slightly lower to 10.1% from a year earlier.

PAR 07:28 GMT 08/29/2014
According to the Ukrainian press (, Crimea is running out of drinking water as supplies form mainland Ukraine have been cut off." That is a rather provocative move on Ukraine's part. Russia's reaction may not be politically correct but certainly understandable and quasi legitimate.

Tallinn viies 07:22 GMT 08/29/2014
PAR 06:24 GMT - contrary to Putin Obama has not been active KGB agent in Germany. thats why he doesnt speak fluent german

GBPUSD and GOLD Heros of today
Amman wfakhoury 07:15 GMT 08/29/2014
both will be move big comparing to others.

Bond & Stocks
PAR 07:15 GMT 08/29/2014
Looks like stock and bond markets will end the week at a high note . What a superb month for stocks and bonds august has been..

PAR 06:24 GMT 08/29/2014
Contrary to Obama , Putin speaks excellent German .

European leaders seem to forget that Russia is situated in Europe and that the European economy is very integrated with the Russian . Sanctions and bellicose talks will not solve the situation . Diplomacy and cooperation are the only solution .

Europe should take the lead as Obama has no strategy on Isis and seems to have no strategy on Ukraine either .

AceTrader Aug 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:24 GMT 08/29/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
29 Aug 2014 02:22GMT

USD/JPY - .... Dlr went through a mini 'roller-coaster' session on Thur. Although broad-based buying in yen due to renewed geopolitical tensions in Ukraine pressured price to 103.56 in Thursday's Europe, release of upbeat 2nd reading of U.S. GDP lifted price to 103.90 in NY morning but only to retreat to 103.65 in NY afternoon.

Today, traders have showed muted reaction to the early release of a slew of mixed economic reports from Japan (including unemployment rate, all household spending, CPI, industrial production and retail sales), suggesting consolidation above said yesterday's 103.56 low would continue, therefore, buying dlr on dips is still the favoured strategy.

Bids are noted at 103.60-50 with stops below 103.50, whilst offers are placed at 103.85/90 and above with stops emerging above 104.20.

Friday will see the release of Japan's unemployment rate, CPI, industrial output and retail sales, New Zealand's business outlook, Australia's housing credit and private sector credit, Japan's housing starts and construction orders, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy's unemployment rate, eurozone inflation and unemployment rate, U.S. PCE, personal consumption and income, Canada's GDP, producer prices and raw material prices, U.S. Chicago PMI, University of Michigan condition and expectations.

Mind the Gap
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:36 GMT 08/29/2014  - My Profile

As the chart below shows, there was a weekend gap in the EURUSD that has led to a debate as to which one to use. Is it the gap to last Friday’s low or to last Friday’s closing price? I have seen traders argue for each. Read on to see which gap I use.

Which Gap Should I Use

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