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FOREX FORUM
25/07/14 8:00 A DE IFO Climate con: 109.4 pre: 109.7
25/07/14 8:00 A DE IFO Current con: 114.5 pre: 114.8
25/07/14 8:00 A DE IFO Expectations con: 104.5 pre: 104.8
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Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
Mtl JP 19:58 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
Jay 18:13 - only a TRADE is evidence of a market.
the g-v chartpoints are amazing, more than
-
red 18:20 - thanks brother. one of us is going to be more right (but just slightly) :-)

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 19:21 GMT 07/24/2014
Zillow's stock is up over 22% on news that it will acquire rival real estate company Trulia for $2 billion. Trulia is up 32%, which is about half in absolute terms of the $1 billion Zillow's market cap has grown by in the past few moments to $6 billion.

Neither company is currently profitable on an annual basis - the combined net income of the two companies is... zero.

Zillow, Trulia Soar On Incomeless Acquisition Plan


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:03 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:50 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
As per my video,

1.6957 = 50 day mva
1.6950 = support => above it needed to keep focus on 1.70

Low was 1.6966

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 18:41 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
10-yr late 2.507% +5bp

above the 2.50% pivotal level.

Flash PMI Data Mostly Better than Expected. U.S. Generally Improves. German IFO Friday
GVI Forex Blog 18:36 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- IFO Survey, GB- GDP. US- Durable Goods Orders

Friday features the closely followed IFO Survey, UK GDP and U.S. Durable Goods data. The U.S. saw mixed data Thursday with weekly Jobless Claims falling decisively below the 300K line. Analysts will want to confirm the data in upcoming reports. The U.S. Markit flash Manufacturing PMI fell modestly from what looked to be a stretched level. New Homes Sales data fell sharply, but the report is not in line with other recent data.

Flash PMI Data Mostly Better than Expected. U.S. Generally Improves. German IFO Friday


Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 18:25 GMT 07/24/2014
fwiw today bonds, dollar and metals stealthily edged towards higher rates. very orderly. and there was the fed worried it would happen in one day.
a couple more of these and the ball will roll faster but we're not there yet.

Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
london red 18:20 GMT 07/24/2014
JP, the 80 day ema is so much prettier :)
by my calcs there is v little chance of a 0.9 print tom. 0.83 0.84 maybe but we dont get those. i think the band is 0.77-0.84 so my guess would be 0.8% with the v outside chance of a point either side with a better chance of a revision higher of a tick after june full wad of data is collected.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 18:18 GMT 07/24/2014
by Wacking...I refer to the Gold and Silver market....silver down hard, prob will try to break into the 19xx

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 18:15 GMT 07/24/2014
the NYFED and the PDs who do the Fed/Treas bidding.

Auction "clear the decks sell off"

Hello FMOC Hello Gammy Yellen...just wacking early...maybe more to come thru Wednesday.

IMH(biased)Opinion

Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:13 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
JP, it is designed to stimulate discussion and have a subject title where you can read the full discussion. It also encourages opinions on both sides, which is what makes a market.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 18:08 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
dc CB 14:54 yields are actually UP.
can u essplain to me who is currently and atm trading - on both sides - paper Gold ?

Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
Mtl JP 17:57 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile


Jay 15:02 / for some time now I am really - and increasingly - perplexed by the treads "agree / disagree" monicker. I mean ... who cares , really ?

There is NO NEED for some insta reality-TV style show of hands poll question when john publishes (I expect with not a minute effort) g-v's chartpoints.

Example: GBPUSD
Res 3 1.7146
Res 2 1.7121
Res 1 1.7076
Pivot 1.7051
Sup 1 1.7006
Sup 2 1.6981
Sup 3 1.6936

and IF you want more, consider the 100 day 1.6841 for target when the puppy tilts and stays under the pivot. Above the Pivot are your R's for consideration.

June 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
nw kw 17:12 GMT 07/24/2014
some funds are getting out but sell 100 or so to next funds

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:01 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
I expect Lady Ashton sleeps deeply, restfully and worry-free

ANZ Business Confidence
Cape Town LV 16:15 GMT 07/24/2014
Any ideas on the news coming out later -ANZ Business Confidence and the effect of that on the NZD?

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 16:12 GMT 07/24/2014
cover's cartoon pretty on though.

ever see The Italian Job with Michael Caine, and that great Mini Cooper chase

Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 16:04 GMT 07/24/2014
halligan has been a bear all the way up. had a lot of time for him a good few years back, but he kept the same tune for too long. either he was right back then or you could say a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.

but eurjpy
jkt abel 16:03 GMT 07/24/2014
bought 137.11, buy more below 137, stop below today's low

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 15:54 GMT 07/24/2014


fun with covers

The Spectator UK


Global Markets News
dc CB 15:34 GMT 07/24/2014
*DRAFT EU SANCTIONS LIST TARGETS 15 INDIVIDUALS, 18 ENTITIES

*EU TARGETS BORTNIKOV, HEAD OF RUSSIAN FSB SECRET SERVICE
*EU TARGETS PATRUSHEV, HEAD OF RUSSIA SECURITY COUNCIL
*EU TARGETS CHECNYA LEADER KADYROV
*EU TARGETS FRADKOV, DIRECTOR OF RUSSIA FOREIGN INTEL SERVICE
*EU DRAFT LIST FOCUSES ON EAST UKRAINE, CRIMEAN ENTITIES

*EU DRAFT SANCTIONS LIST DOESN'T MENTION MAJOR RUSSIAN COMPANIES


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:30 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
US equity trading has been choppy this morning as major earnings and some surprising US data keep participants on their toes

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Good Claims Data, Weak June Home Sales, Major Earnings Drive Choppy US Trading


Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:30 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
Late in Europe the focus seems mainly to be on the improving data in a session marked by a heavy calendar of releases. Most of the items beat expectations, but there were several notable misses. As a result markets have moved into a risk-on posture. The EURUSD is currently steady.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher, but remain well below levels from early last week .Yields on the European periphery are mixed. .EZ 10-yr 1.18%, +3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.61%  +5bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend..
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.51%,  +5bp. The psychological pivot is2.50% .
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are closing up. U.S. shares are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 15:10 GMT 07/24/2014
POMO juice just in at 11:00

total Par Amt Accepted: $2.369bln

Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:02 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
Last sub-1.70 close was on June 25 (1.6979)

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
Late morning in the U.S. is seeing equities try to rally.

The U.S. 10-yr is back above the 2.50% line at 2.509%.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 15:00 GMT 07/24/2014
yields should come off here (we should have seen hod) into tomorrow if following trend. a new high sustained suggests a break out for 2.58/2.59.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 14:54 GMT 07/24/2014


with the Wackage gold took today...ya's also think yeilds would be Lower.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:50 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
As I have been noting, US 2.50% 10-year yield is a good risk indicator. Currently 2.51% and why USDJPY is bid.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 14:48 GMT 07/24/2014
dc CB 19:44 GMT July 23, 2014
Auctions next week. The "follow the script" sell off so far has yet to materialize.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

seems like with all today's US "Bad" news Treas Yeilds should be down. ya think?

GVI Forex Blog 14:40 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
July 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- Durable Goods, DE- IFO, GB- GDP.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 25, 2014


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 14:36 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile


July 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- IFO, GB- GDP.
  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- IFO, GB- GDP.
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, COT Report.



June 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
Dillon AL 14:33 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
The reason John could be that there have been a huge number of very short dated closures IE 2 weeks rather than the 30 days and so the 2 numbers are essentially in the real world level pegging
A couple of the unheard (IE non main stream banks) of mortgage lenders have recently been pulling the stops out to build market share. PS as a Notary Public I still see mass mistakes in mortgage documentation that is being completely overlooked and so nothing has really changed over the last few years from a bad documentation stand-point of view

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
+90 vs.+97 exp vs. +107 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

June 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile


By comparison Existing Homes Sales in June were much better and are more than 10 times the size of New Homes sales. The two numbers should generally track one another.

June 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
New Homes Sales May spike in sales revised out. June sales unexpectdly fall sharply. Out of line with performance of more important Existing Homes Sales.


June 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
london red 14:03 GMT 07/24/2014
well that miss should ruffle some feathers. youd expect some give on that and we've seen it initially, but if they shrug this one off you have to look to a retest of 2.58/2.59 again.

June 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
Major miss in New Homes sales.

June 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
406K vs. 478K exp. vs. 504K (r 442K) prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

U.S. July 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
london red 13:58 GMT 07/24/2014
job creation weakest since sept 13 apparently. still if any survey can be discounted its this one. other july are fine, v strong, so far.

Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:57 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
As posted earlier on GVI Forex.




Daily GBPUSD Outlook Video Update


GBPUSD closing pattern (6 days down) noted, 1.70 in the spotlight.

U.S. July 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
GVI Forex john 13:51 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI weaker than forecast, but still well above the ISM survey.


U.S. July 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
london red 13:50 GMT 07/24/2014
high print last month so an average of the two looks ok, but its known to be out vs the main pmi indicator sometimes. but market seems to have taken it in its stride with no back up in 10 year yield yet.

U.S. July 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
Data disappoints

U.S. July 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
56.3 vs. 57.5 exp. vs. 57.3 prelim


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

us manf
london red 13:26 GMT 07/24/2014
markit pmi for july up shortly. i expect a stronger number on the bqasis of my calculations for main manf pmi. the markit generally follows but has been known to underprint the main survey. but that said, i expect somewhere around 60 to print today.
yields are moving up and should go higher on this number, though eurusd reaction to earlier data today suggests taking profits on any blip higher in usd on the data. usdjpy should vault 80 on a good number, but can run into trouble anywhere from 10195 to 10210. cable might see a run towards 16950/40 where i am a buyer into gdp tomorrow. eurusd may retest 50 and how it reacts there will indicate whether or no a short covering rally is to occur.

UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
UPDATED (BASED ON WEDNESDAY CLOSES): Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs BOE refi rate and GBPUSD. 2y vs, BOE Repo Rate. The 2yr is what the market prices the Official target rate will AVERAGE over its remaining lifespan.

These relationships tell you what you need to know about the GBPUSD. They will be increasingly sensitive to U.K. economic data as the year wears 0n. NoTE: today saw disappointing UK Retail Sales data.




Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
london red 12:54 GMT 07/24/2014
10180 is the level to watch. manf pmi up in less than an hour

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
NY JM 12:53 GMT 07/24/2014  - My Profile
USDJPY is very sensitive to US yields and if they start moving up, correlation will be easy to explain.


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