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31/10/14 7:00 A DE Ret Sales mo con: -0.90% pre: 3.50%
31/10/14 7:00 A DE Ret Sales yr con: 1.20% pre: 0.10%
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gc sf 04:12 GMT 10/31/2014
18-43 range so far

I guess people were waiting on this BOJ stuff to finish off the distribution normally you don't have to wait that long .. anyway see how it unfolds as this comes out.

Aussie property
gc sf 04:07 GMT 10/31/2014
in Sydney it depends where you live .. just near where I had been living the entry level houses have risen this year from 1.2 mio to 1.6 mio and the longest a place is on the market is 7 days.

here on GC - a lot of offshore people are buying but the local market is pretty slow.

Also I get the impression that there is still people moving to Sydney so no matter what there is an underlying demand at some natural level.

I don't think property can be the only thing holding up the AUD @8700
.. really how much is coming in for that reason 1 bio tops ? that is about 1 cent worth.... it has to be something more along the lines of reserve types buying -- as it just seems sustained.

You mentioned 87-89 range honestly given just a couple of months to go - I'm not sure you can expect anything more than that.

Aussie property
Sydney ACC 03:43 GMT 10/31/2014
From what I've read in the last couple of weeks the Sydney market has gone off the boil. I suppose its a combination of things - sellers asking too high a price, or buyers - reluctant to pay what's being asked. There's a lovely house in our neighbourhood auctioned tomorrow I might go along and see what transpires, I also know the agent so will get a better idea from him.

As far as AUD is concerned there aren't many positives in my mind. Iron ore and coal are well known negatives. I saw a prediction iron ore will fall to USD 70 per tonne. But no one has written anything I've seen about gas exports. The price has fallen in line with oil prices and the producers need a much lower AUD as their cost base is so high.

It also seems the market traders and economists are living on different planets - maybe Venus and Mars. Well the traders have factored in a two-thirds chance of a rate cut while the analysts are calling for an increase. While these guys keep calling for an increase at the same time they keep pushing out the date. CBA I believe now seeing it in November next year, Give me a break its difficult enough to try and predict whats going to happen in five minutes never mind 12 months. Nevertheless if the RBA does backtrack and introduce new restrictions such as LVR changes on residential mortgages that eliminates the main support for the cash rate remaining where it is. On that note I saw where a Kiwi analyst did call that RBA will cut the cash rate by 50 basis points. GS still maintain there will be a cut, but they've been saying that for months.

So where does that leave Aussie probably ranging for the remainder of the year between 87 cents and 89 cents given what's happened so far. What's your prediction?

GVI Forex Blog 03:36 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Better than expected US Q3 GDP (3.5%) and the much bigger contribution of government

Morning Briefing : 31-Oct-2014 -0336 GMT

Aussie property
Syd 03:24 GMT 10/31/2014
Sydney ACC thats very interesting , do you see the lower aud helping the property market ?

Sydney ACC 02:42 GMT 10/31/2014
When the time comes for these offshore punters to sell their Australian properties they will be required to sell it to locals. I'd say many of these foreigners have overlooked this requirement. Be interesting if for one reason or another they turn out to be forced sellers en masse.

AceTrader Oct 31: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:42 GMT 10/31/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Oct 2014 00:08GMT

USD/JPY - .......Latest news: 'Japan government to approve GPIF reallocation on Friday, raising Japan equity target to 25% from the current target of 12%, two government sources said.'
Japan's economy minister Amari said that :
"Abe's cabinet is ready to take steps as needed, when asked about chance of compiling stimulus measures;
will consult with Abe whether stimulus package is needed, after scrutinising Jul-Sep data;
no decision yet on whether to complete stimulus package, also on size of any package."

Last night U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 3-1/2 week high of 109.36 versus the Japanese yen on renewed risk appetites due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index futures n U.S. stock markets.
Dow Jones index now rose by 221 point or 1.3% to 17196. Bids was located at 109.20-10 and more at 109.00. On the upside, some offers were tipped at 109.40 and 109.60.

Friday will see the release of Japan's all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia's PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada's GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.

shanghai bc 01:25 GMT 10/31/2014

Relatively strong Aud has the constant Asian demand flow issue..Not very large market but India,China,Japan,Korea all want to invest there..And a very favourite place for second home for millions of nouveau riche from those places..Same as hot London property market..Some folks are just lucky or unlucky to be in the right place..

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 23:51 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index at 4-week highs, but off peak

* Aussie, NZD perk up as well on better risk appetite

* BOJ expected to maintain stimulus, but could surprise

* GPIF, euro zone inflation also watched

FOREX-Dollar underpinned by GDP, BOJ next in focus

gc sf 22:57 GMT 10/30/2014
I'm not too sure what to make of the price action - but from the trades basically anything above 1.2622 is all selling stops don't come in till 1.2665

GBP anything above 24 all selling stops don't come in till 1.6068 area.

AUD + NZD is really interesting - you have 2 CB's talking down their currencies weekly .. NZD actually selling theirs - yet we rally almost every time.

I just don't see a case where USD can advance across the board without more resistance in these pairs ... otherwise it will be just xxx/jpy buying.

gc sf 22:51 GMT 10/30/2014
Friday is typically the day of the strongest buying in $yen when the market is bullish .. the biggest dip you would normally see is roughly 20 points.

so if it is to be a bullish day today that would leave us with a range of


if the market is to just sideways range then


if the market for some reason would show a more bearish turn

108.75 / 109.50

usually you can get a read on the likely outcome after just a few hours.

nw kw 22:31 GMT 10/30/2014
is to remain soft for gov reports all cad exports need it /1.100 min.for gov.

nw kw 22:24 GMT 10/30/2014
aud/cad this where find big flows with out usd/ chart looks cat can weaken in this chart aud cat//

nw kw 22:00 GMT 10/30/2014
cad correlated to crb index was call crb is soft last week if terns up cat will strengthen but the usd can keep good presser on comedies from usd strength /for how long is hard part///oil has support from Nat gas from usa will xsport ngas next year//so still drilling hols in ground that will keep investments in oilf pach,not run from investing,

[oil refiners starting to draw for new year car gas refinement supported if a dip in oil but id test long at 80.0

dc CB 21:23 GMT 10/30/2014
The New York-based bank on Thursday revised its quarterly net income to $2.8 billion from a previously reported $3.4 billion, citing legal expenses.

The bank's operating expenses rose from $12.36 billion to about $13 billion.

Citi previously reported third-quarter net income of $3.44 billion, or $1.07 per share, on Oct. 14. The results exceeded Wall Street estimates

Citi Restates Earnings Due to Regulatory Probes

A picture is worth a 1000...
dc CB 21:20 GMT 10/30/2014

Laurette Eugene at the Point Blank Body Armor factory in Pompano Beach, Fla. The United States economy grew at a better-than-expected rate in the third quarter.

U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Annual Pace in Third Quarter

GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
10:00 EZ FL HICP  ECB target
12:30  US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55  US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey

GVI Forex john 20:30 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 20:22 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile

USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Livingston nh 19:30 GMT 10/30/2014
kw - any thots on USD/CAD and oil/energy prices?

Livingston nh 19:26 GMT 10/30/2014
kw - Bullish on USD/JPY but seems a lot of today's move based on BoJ - I don't see a big announcement of softer policy (not even sure there could be a softer policy) - stats out of Japan have been better but they always shoot themselves in the foot // they need higher interest rates and tax CUTS -- but that's a 20 yr failure

nw kw 19:18 GMT 10/30/2014
nh - you have a take on jpy looks like run

Livingston nh 19:16 GMT 10/30/2014
kw - I trade a 15 min chart and QQQ macd is not confirming // the daily chart - a break below the 40 dma or 3950 (NDX) would/might signal a test of the lows

I like the banks based on higher rates, more loans as competition with "shadows" increase // Tech -- I like real tech not the social media tech - Applied Materials, medical tech not pharma, energy battery research

I haven't owned a stock personally in a long - index options only

Livingston nh 19:08 GMT 10/30/2014
Well at least USD bulls don't need to worry about the Fed concern for strong dollar and the Great Global Growth Slowdown is sort of a "never mind" event -- Yellen has bigger fish to fry, Inequality and Diversity

nw kw 19:07 GMT 10/30/2014
nh -QQQ,s are testing a brake out what do you see in teck or banks, or can be more to the retrace thk.

Where's Ginko?
Paris ib 18:57 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
S and P going for the head and shoulders.....

dc CB 18:54 GMT 10/30/2014
dc CB 14:32 GMT October 30, 2014
Less than half of the DJIA stocks are Up today and none of them by more than 30 cents.
The "gain" of 90+ pts is all due to Visa. which is up over 17 pts. Just because of the way the Dow is calculated. But for all intents and Cheering purposes STAWKS ARE UP.


did you guys just wake up? hard night drinking?

GVI Forex john 18:49 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Point is DJIA is not representative of how stock markets are trading. Makes a difference for correlation trades.

Mtl JP 18:44 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
john traders trade headlines
analysts and economists waist their time on petty details

GVI Forex john 18:38 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Stupid DJ price weighted index.Apparently most of its gains today comes from one stock "VIsa", as in credit cards.

dc CB 18:36 GMT 10/30/2014
To 'prove' that the end of QE3 is not a negative for stocks and to 'confirm' the Fed's narrative that the economy is surging (despite all the unsustainable one-offs in the GDP print), algos are tearing stocks higher, targeting the crucial 2,000 S&P level... thanks to 2-week old headlines from Japan, a broken options market, and the NYSE unable to report trades... As Nanex notes "this is a bigger event than the 2013 market blackout"


WOOOPS. Maybe artificial intelegence runnin' dose' computers has detected a "crossed the line" LIE... OMG they've become sentient. We can fix in the Geeks.

Broken Market (Worse Than 2013 Nasdaq Blackout) Just Fails To Send S&P Back Over 2,000

U.S. GDP Data Beat Estimates. German Unemployment Improves. Heavy Friday Docket
GVI Forex Blog 18:29 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- CPI, Bank of Japan, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Mich

Friday sees Japanese CPI, a BOJ policy decision, Eurozone flash HICP, U.S. Personal Income data and the final October University of Michigan Survey. Over the weekend, North American clocks are turned back one hour. U.S. 3Q14 GDP outpaced street expectations on a strong increase in defense spending that likely will not be sustained. German unemployment data were better than expected but the unemployment rate remains remarkably steady.

U.S. GDP Data Beat Estimates. German Unemployment Improves. Heavy Friday Docket

Livingston nh 18:28 GMT 10/30/2014
One thing of note w/ the recent rally in US stox is there is no new money moving in -- election next week (Republicans are rally killers)

dc CB 17:53 GMT 10/30/2014

so all that Free Money that the Hoi Poloi will be finding in the couch cushions, that they now don't have to Burn Up driving to work and soccer and the store and the store and the play date...this will all go on the Card(s) ...cause we feeling Flush....
The Nov prelim Michigan and Consumer Conf numbers should be thru da ruf...(say roof Bunky...ruf dog can talk)

Apple's Pay-by-Phone is deader than a Gay CEO...Palleeeeeze Dig Up Steve Jobs...prop him up and clone his DNA....

SANTA RALLY....woooo woooo wooo.

Where's Ginko?
Paris ib 17:48 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Ginko it looks like you are on target for 2000 on the S n P as well. So that's two bulls eyes.

It will be interesting to see if the S and P is just drawing the other shoulder in a head and shoulder formation or if we are going to crack new highs.....

The recent rally was built on the sharp fall in bond yields in the States which we saw during the 'correction'. How well the market can perform with higher bond yields remains to be seen. As an aside I looked up another of Soros's big positions: the JPY short. He made more than a billion on that reportedly. So it will be interesting to see how is S and P put performs. :-)

dc CB 17:41 GMT 10/30/2014
on the back of the JapYen

blew thru target...onto 110++

Where's Ginko?
tokyo ginko 17:32 GMT 10/30/2014
Thanks ib.

Wouldnt stay short going into boj's statement ..which could send flying to 113.00/20.

GT all.

Mtl JP 17:24 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile

2000.00 as magnet

GVI Forex john 17:12 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
7-yr 2.018%
bid to cover 2.42 vs. 2.48
Lousy auction

From the FRBNY Repo Desk
dc CB 17:01 GMT 10/30/2014
adjustments to rates thru Nov.
for the next 2 weeks - down to 3 basis points.

Yes Virginia, that's a Max of $300Bln overnight for 0.03%

Oct 29 adjustment annc

Erratic moves
dc CB 16:53 GMT 10/30/2014
via ZH

CNBC screen cap

Breaking Bad
SaaR KaL 16:51 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
	High	Low
Avg 2.0690 2.0046
Max 2.0835 2.0186
Min 2.0553 1.9913

12/1/2014 1.9872 1.9710

Maybe next day

Erratic moves
dc CB 16:47 GMT 10/30/2014
It's Window Dressing Time, and as mentioned yest Closing Books for the Year for Mutual Funds.

apparently Visa and Master Card today became "must be shown to own" stocks for the year.

SnP back above or well above 2000 would be nice for them.

Taiwan's exports to China down 6% for Q1-3
HK RF@ 16:46 GMT 10/30/2014



Erratic moves
Mtl JP 16:43 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Entry: 1.2625-ish Target: 1.2590 and lower Stop: >1.2635+

and prayer to FX gods

Erratic moves
Livingston nh 16:31 GMT 10/30/2014
Big turn in European stock markets especially Italy - US treasuries basically unmoved since this morning BUT 7 yr auction in 1/2 hr

Erratic moves
PAR 16:18 GMT 10/30/2014
some of the moves today look very extreme , real pain . The rouble today ....Greek peripheral debt ......and look no further than gold shares over the last 48 hours ...proper volume , no real explanation ....for what its worth ( and never one to spread rumours ;) ) but just been told rumour of a $750m 6ishx levered quant fund shut last night. Certainly feels like that .

Livingston nh 16:16 GMT 10/30/2014
A comment about the "analysts" who are dismissing the GDP fig -- these were the guys that were in the 3% or lower camp so they need to say why they missed - number will probably be revised higher because of the final trade figs // Federal spending - the 3rd qtr is the Final budget qtr of fiscal yr so "use or lose it" applies - state and local govs are coming off the floor AND a stronger economy always produces more tax revenue but these analysts probably have never seen a rate hike either

Inventories were bought down so probably restocking will be "blamed" for Q4 surprise - "IT's always somethin'!" Professor Rosannadana

DO'H Award of the Week
dc CB 16:01 GMT 10/30/2014
And the Runner Up:

The reason the United States lags many countries in both speed and affordability, according to people who study the issue, has nothing to do with technology. Instead, it is an economic policy problem — the lack of competition in the broadband industry.

“It’s just very simple economics,” said Tim Wu, a professor at Columbia Law School who studies antitrust and communications and was an adviser to the Federal Trade Commission. “The average market has one or two serious Internet providers, and they set their prices at monopoly or duopoly pricing.”

Why the U.S. Has Fallen Behind in Internet Speed and Affordability

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