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Economic Beat: Slow Rise In Inflation Delays Fed Rate Hike
Syd 06:31 GMT 03/28/2015
When will Janet Yellen & Co. finally declare victory over inflation?

Such a victory by the central bank used to mean curbing inflation's rise. Today, it means nudging inflation high enough so that prices start increasing by 2% a year, the hurdle that inflation must overcome before the Federal Open Market Committee begins hiking the short-term interest rate from the current target of 0% to 0.25%.

As noted last week ("The Ugly Side of the Fed's Reluctance to Raise Rates," March 23), vast numbers of investors and savers are getting hurt by this punitive policy, especially senior citizens who normally park their funds in bank certificates of deposit. If the victims were to stage a mass protest in front of Yellen's office to declare their grievances, one of their placards might read: "When will your FOMC finally decide that it's seen the whites of 2% inflation's eyes?"

In fairness, 2% annually amounts to a slowing of inflation over the long run. It translates to a doubling in prices every 35 years, and, in fact, over the past 35 years, prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index have more than doubled, climbing by nearly 2.6 times. According to the better-known consumer price index, prices are 2.8 times higher than those 35 years ago.

I cite the PCE price index because Yellen herself has stated that it's the measure of choice. In recent testimony before the Senate, she was clear on this point: "The Federal Open Market Committee's 2% objective refers to the increase -- the annual increase in the total PCE price index that includes food and energy."

And in written testimony, she observed that "U.S. inflation continues to run below the committee's 2% objective," citing "the recent softness in the all-items measure of inflation for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)."

The bad news is that the PCE price index generally rises more slowly than the other index of choice, the consumer price index, as indicated by the numbers cited earlier on 35-year increases. So if Yellen had instead chosen the CPI, she would likely be able to declare victory for the 2% objective sooner than with the PCE.

That's because the CPI tracks a basket of goods and services that is generally fixed from one period to the next (at this point, based on consumer expenditure surveys for 2011 and 2012), while the PCE price index is necessarily more flexible. Designed to deflate nominal consumer spending and turn it into inflation-adjusted outlays, it must keep readjusting its weightings to reflect what consumers actually buy from one period to the next. Since consumers tend to shift from higher- to lower-priced goods and services when the opportunities present themselves, the personal consumption expenditures price index will generally rise more slowly than the consumer price index.

As Yellen has observed, "The PCE price index edged down during the fourth quarter of last year and looks to be on track to register a more significant decline this quarter because of falling consumer energy prices." Given her stated loyalty to the "all-items" PCE, it would appear that achieving the 2% target is unusually dependent on the trend in the price of energy. Weighed down by low energy prices, both the CPI and PCE have been running at around a zero rate.

But happily and not surprisingly, the Fed chair leaves herself a lot of leeway to interpret the trends according to her own lights. Since the effects of Federal Reserve policy generally take some time to be felt, changes in policy are supposed to be pre-emptive. And in that regard, Yellen specifically endorses "so-called core inflation that strips out" food and energy prices "in order to get a better forecast sometimes of the underlying trends in inflation." She even stipulates that, in order to get a handle on the future, "we look at the CPI, which is well known to most Americans."

The 12-month trend in the core consumer price index through February, released last week, ran at 1.7%, while the 12-month trend in the core personal consumption expenditures price index through January, was 1.3%; the February update on PCE will be released Monday. So bondholders take note: Based on either measure, we're more than halfway toward the 2% goal. Barron's

Cambridge Joe 06:16 GMT 03/28/2015
CB 20:52

Indeed the 'future cannot cause the past",

it is the past which causes the future !

Across aeons of time has been called 'karma' , or as ye sow, so shall ye reap, or cause and effect.

I always enjoy watching the forum when I can and especially enjoy some of the richer conversations !

Cheers !

Mtl JP 00:31 GMT 03/28/2015  - My Profile
rather what it is not .. is it inconvenient ?

yeah, keeping it in a bank account in the form of digi-chitts it is inconvenient in more ways than one.

The day that social media world makes "demand physical cash at your local bank" trending will show Yellen and her crowd what "not convenient" is.

dc CB 23:28 GMT 03/27/2015
we found it remarkable that during the Q&A after her speech today that Janet Yellen, when asked about negative rates, admitted that

"cash in not a very convenient store of value,"

Rick Santelli then sums it all up perfectly...

"deflation is clearly the boogeyman... and the only thing that will save the middle class."

Santelli Stunned As Janet Yellen Admits "Cash Is Not A Store Of Value"

dc CB 20:52 GMT 03/27/2015
from Yellen's Home FRBank this week

Leverage is risky. Purchasing assets with borrowed money can amplify small movements in prices into extraordinary gains or crippling losses, even default.

This Economic Letter explores the channels through which advanced economies have increased their debt and the consequences that this leverage has had for the business cycle.
and contains such Brilliant Insights as:

In any retrospective analysis, it is difficult to separate cause and effect. For example, sick people are more likely to take medication, but the resulting positive association between the two does not imply that medicine makes people sick.

When examining the effect of bank lending on business cycle dynamics we face a similar difficulty, which we resolve in two ways. First, we use the arrow of time—that is, the future cannot cause the past

FRBSF Economic Letter

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 20:19 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
*Geopolitical events may lead to further oil price volatility
•US payrolls expected to post another strong rise in March
•Euro area CPI data to further ease concerns of sustained deflation


Mtl JP 20:17 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
just text is 4292 words
to say what exactly ?
ah.. maybe q/a will re-clarify

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:13 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Mtl JP 20:05 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
may .. could..
at least she not not wearing an easter bunny costume
which we know is coming next week

dc CB 20:01 GMT 03/27/2015
and the D'OH award for the week goes to...JANET YELLEN

Yellen: "holding rates too low for too long could encourage inappropriate risk-taking... undermining the stability of financial markets"


Mtl JP 20:01 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
"I expect that conditions may warrant an increase in the federal funds rate target sometime this year" Yellen

or may not . duh

clearer it don't get.
desperately fighting to regain control over data being the matter that matters.

GVI Forex john 19:59 GMT 03/27/2015
Q$A after she delivers her speech.

GVI Forex john 19:57 GMT 03/27/2015
Something for the hawks and something for the doves. Bias slightly hawkish.

Short Eurusd ...relentless
KL KL 19:53 GMT 03/27/2015
TQ Yellen.... chased long eurusd to 1.0804 last night...out now 4/5 1.0927... Open other account and SAR short here.... relentless...

and covering 5/6 here 1.0894....LOL this is madness....the 15 minute wait for chaos

Now long Gold 1197.8 slowly....LOL

DYOR..>DFm..DLTm trades need to make sense....just trade

ha ha wait again eurusd to rise to near 1.0918 then whack again and again!!

have to go too busy and fast markets....LOL

GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT 03/27/2015
fed likely to raise rates this year
path likely gradual
policy data dependent
can't wait for inflation to tighten
may be valure i lettin jobs run "hot"

Mtl JP 19:46 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
pivot 1.093 hit

Mtl JP 19:46 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
pivot 1.093 hit

Mtl JP 19:43 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Res 1 1.1007
Pivot 1.0932
Sup 1 1.0811
still waiting for some catalyst for a bust out

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions
Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details
X+++++ Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

dc CB 19:29 GMT 03/27/2015
Only one release off which maybe worth trying to skin some pips:
NFP on Friday

Major Release on a day when US markets are Shut

there will be a 45 mins to trade SnP futures, with an addition 2 hours to trade FX and Treas Futures.

CME Good Fri Sched

Mtl JP 19:18 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
on what platform is german 10-yr paying +20.7% ?

GVI Forex john 19:16 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Why pension funds, etc. who cannot accept negative interest rates are buying German 10-yr.

2-yr -0.21%
5-yr -0.09%
10-yr +20.7%

yields are negative all the way out to the 8-yr

Mtl JP 19:14 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
according to Deutsche Bank strategist Torsten Slok:
Volatility is back, thanks to the Fed

“there seems to be a conflict between low liquidity in markets requiring more and more predictability and the Fed wanting to have more flexibilit. ... That is a recipe for a “volatile reaction” in fixed-income markets as investors reposition for whatever decision the Fed makes, he said. That implies that volatility will continue to trend higher, and not only in fixed income, but also foreign exchange and equities, Slok warned"
So who does and who does not like volatility ?

Mtl JP 19:07 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Only one release off which maybe worth trying to skin some pips:
NFP on Friday

GVI Forex john 18:42 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Lots of news in store next week. Rest up this weekend!

GVI Forex john 18:40 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)
    0:00 EZ/GB Clocks +1hr
    12:30 US PCE defl y Fed inflation target
    12:30 US Per Income Consumre spending power
    13:00 DE fl HICP yy ECB targets inflation
    14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Sales
    8:55 DE Jobless Employment data
    9:30 GB GDP QQ widest measure of economy
    10:00 EZ flash HICP y ECB targets inflation
    10:00 EZ fl core HICP y m ECB targets inflation
    12:30 CA GDP mm widest measure of economy
    13:45 US Chicago PMI construction
    14:00 US CB Cons Confidence Latest view on economy
    23:50 AU MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    23:50 JP Tankan Latest view on economy
    1:00 CN NBS PMI Latest view on economy
    1:35 JP final PMI Latest view on economy
    1:45 CN HSBC final PMI Latest view on economy
    7:30 CH PMI Latest view on economy
    8:50 FR MKT PMI Lastest view on economy
    8:55 DE final MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    8:58 EZ MKT PMI Latest view on economy
    9:28 GB Mfg PMI Latest view on economy
    12:15 US ADP JOBs Employment data
    13:30 CA RBC-Markit PMI Latest view on economy
    13:45 US final MKT MFG PMI Latest view on economy
    14:00 US Construction Spend Latest view on economy
    14:00 US ISM MFG PMI building
    14:30 US EIA Crude mn price predictor
    0:30 AU Trade A$bln external economy
    7:00 DE Retail Sales mm consumer demand measure
    9:28 GB Construct PMI Latest view on economy
    12:30 CA Trade C$bn external economy
    12:30 US Weekly Jobless late viewon jobs
    12:30 US Trade external Accunts
    13:00 USFRB Yellen sppec
    13:30 EZ ECB Minutes speech
    14:00 US Factory Orders future production
    0:00 AU Holiday
    0:00 CA Holiday
    0:00 CH Holiday
    0:00 EZ Holiday
    0:00 GB Holiday
    0:00 NZ Holiday
    0:00 US Early Close
    12:30 US Unemployment % unemployment rate
    12:30 US Payrolls Key Jobs data
    13:45 US final MKT SVC PMI Latest view on economy

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
in round round numbers at 1.09 euro waiting for catalyst to break uP N of 1.1050 or Down S of 1.08

gc sf 18:30 GMT 03/27/2015
"The iron ore price in China has gone down about four per cent today, so that's also the reason by the Australian dollar is also down for the session."

BT Update
gc sf 17:46 GMT 03/27/2015
obviously much earlier

MS s/l triggered in AUD .. 7690 long closed @ 7800 +110

BT Update
gc sf 17:41 GMT 03/27/2015
MS closed $CHF short @9584 +326
MS closed EUR long @1.0920 +210

MS - $YEN 119.20 target 115.50 s/l 120.00 (open)
MS - EUR 1.0920 target 1.0500 s/l 1.1060 (open)

- GBP 1.5000 sl 1.5100 tp 1.4500
+ $CAD 1.2200 sl 1.2100 tp 1.2800

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:37 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
according to MarketWatch:
"Ahead of the start of earnings reporting season, which unofficially kicks off when Alcoa Inc. AA, -1.09% reports results on April 8, about 84% of the companies that have provided first-quarter outlooks gave negative outlooks. That’s above the 81% that warned Q1 2014, and the five-year average of 68%."

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:33 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
CB 16:29 in my earlier life of stock peddling, your bias would be called patriotic

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:05 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
down to 1048 rigs, down -21 from last count, down -761y/y

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 16:53 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Baker Hughes oil rig count should be hitting the wires around top of the hour

AUD - why the selling now?
Sydney ACC 16:51 GMT 03/27/2015
Chevron also sold their 50% share of Caltex for AUD 4.65 billion.

Global Markets News
london red 16:49 GMT 03/27/2015
spoos options dont seem to have much premium built in for yellen. euro fx on the other hand, still looking for half a point from here which is plenty abv average for this time of day, so they might be expecting some even if stox arent.

london red 16:30 GMT 03/27/2015
fine looking wick on hourly candle, almost worth holding onto to. but bias seems higher and not sure it goes under 1.09.

Global Markets News
dc CB 16:29 GMT 03/27/2015
she's speaking at 3:45PM...15 mins before the cash Stox close.
If she farts the algos will sell and take the market down 300 pts
If she belches there will be a 500pt rally to erase all the weeks loses.

I'd bet on a belch.

Global Markets News
GVI Forex john 16:25 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
JP- I'm not laying any blamon anyone. I was just saying these talks are an opportunity for central banks to send signals to the market when they feel they are needed. I also said I don't see any reason why she might feel the need to send a message today.

AUD - why the selling now?
Paris ib 16:23 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
Yeah something is going on. Hard to work out what.

Mtl JP 16:21 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
euro price gap from 1.0899,
friday hanki-panki stop hunt more likely than reaction to some sudden rosy smell from european economy

GVI Forex Blog 16:20 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CH- KOF Index, EZ- Unemployment, DE- flash HICP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Pending Homes Sales

GVI Forex Calendar for March 30, 2015

Miami JN 16:20 GMT 03/27/2015
Is there news, or thin Friday, or Swiss nat bank intervene, or pre Yellen or what?

AUD - why the selling now?
london red 16:20 GMT 03/27/2015
commodities are all down heavily paris i would guess that doesnt do aussie any favours

GVI Forex john 16:18 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile

March 27, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 30, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CH- KOF Index, EZ- Unemployment, DE- flash HICP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Pending Homes Sales
  • Far East: MNo Major Data
  • Europe: CH- Kof Index, EZ- Unemployment, DE- flash HICP
  • North America: US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Pending Homes Sales

AUD - why the selling now?
Paris ib 16:16 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
EUR/AUD outside day up.

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 16:14 GMT 03/27/2015  - My Profile
when in fact it is not the first time Yellen has proven her lack of communications skill having made gaph before.

Global Markets News
london red 16:14 GMT 03/27/2015
euro. 40/45 res. imp. if taken will go on to 10998 fib.

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