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02/10/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln con: n/a pre: -1.359
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london red 16:11 GMT 10/01/2014
John 109.05/12. Below there the censored storm starts.

SaaR KaL 16:09 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
I bought Jay..
Buy Layer 109.43 109.14
TGT 110.1224

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:02 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

Key level is 109.19, yesterday's low

Only below it would produce an outside day (key reversal if closes below)

Low so far 108.25

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 16:01 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
AUDUSD heading to 0.8100 by the end of oct

Global Markets News
GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Another dip down in U.S. stocks. I thought we would never see the 10-yr back down in range of 2.40% again. Any implications for ECB tomorrow?

Global Markets News
Dallas JRE 15:36 GMT 10/01/2014
Some are freaking out here. Is the case of Ebola weighing on equities and airlines on epidemic fears?

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
PAR 15:36 GMT 10/01/2014
VIX down . Ebola risk up .

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Markets have moved from an early  MIXED RISK posture to a RISK-OFF positioning. I am seeing prime bond yields falling as equities sell-off  As of the European close U.S. shares are trying to stabilize. The EURUSD has been trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are sharply lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.906%,  -4.3% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.368% -5.9 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.429%, -7.7bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are closing lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:30 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
In a similar pattern to yesterday's US session, stock prices opened and quickly moved to session lows. Traders are largely looking past the US ecnomic data and focusing a whole host of concerns. Safe haven flows are once again sloshing money out of equities and into the relative safety of US and German bond markets. US Market Update: Ebola fever has US indices wobbling

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Livingston nh 15:20 GMT 10/01/2014
Treasury yields are being influenced by EU rates notably bunds - USD still has relative yield advantage (risk is flatter curve when Fed moves s/t)

Good news is bad news again

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
PAR 15:15 GMT 10/01/2014
Yields fall ,stock markets recover , the party goes on , Draghi and Yellen are happy .

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
london red 15:12 GMT 10/01/2014
when yields fall generally the dollar softens. often there is a delay.

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
PAR 15:12 GMT 10/01/2014
It is still early in NY ,wait for usual afternoon buying to come in with a force .

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
GVI Forex john 15:04 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Im trying to figure out if stocks are falling on the data or on fears of monetary policy "normalization" in the U.S. and U.K.?

If its policy "normalization" bond yields should not be falling??

Is this USD positive or negative???

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
london red 14:59 GMT 10/01/2014
JP, if you have a mo, pull up this chart. dec 10yr. trendline thru august 13 and 22nd lows. it the new (old) red line. same one as for the sept contract that worked so well. think the chart can be very helpful, puts into perspective where we have been and where we are now.

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
GVI Forex john 14:50 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
10-yr bund 0.908% -4.1 bp.

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
GVI Forex john 14:48 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
big move higher in bond prices (yields tumbling)

10-yr 2.425% -8.1bp
on 162 point fall in DJIA
S&P -15 points

I had thought we were headed for 2.60%.This time there is no political dimension to this price move..

Trade Idea
Paris ib 14:36 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Current level 4345 and 1012

US EIA Weekly Inventories
GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

Crude Oil: -1.400 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -4.300 prev.
Gasoline: -1.836 vs. -3.00exp vs. -0.400 prev.
Distillates -2.900 vs. 0.0 exp vs. +0.820 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.80% vs. n/a exp vs. 92.3% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Trade Idea
Mtl JP 14:28 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Entry: 1.1180 Target: 1.12++ Stop: few pips under 1.1160

anyone want to second it ?

Wednesday's Trading
london red 14:24 GMT 10/01/2014
10yr dec high on neck line of former shs. last time it broken higher it went nearly a point in 2 sessions. but s&p must go under 1955 fib for break to occur imo. otherwise hard to see where break comes from.

Trade Idea
Mtl JP 14:23 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
I need one ... preferably profitable
tia !

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014
london red 14:13 GMT 10/01/2014
us ism usually slows down during summer. this year the slow down came late give the q2 rebound after v poor q1. october is when we need to worry if no improvement.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014
GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Global economy slowing down? Its been a disappointing day for the PMIs.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014
GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
ISM Mfg misses estimates. Employment index 54.6 vs. 58.1.

Construction Spending August 2014
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

-0.80% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +1.80% prev. rev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile


56.6 vs. 58.0 exp. vs. 59.0 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Wednesday's Trading
NY JM 13:54 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
10 yr 2.436% as stocks extends slide....

FX implications?...

ISM PMI up next

U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI September 2014
Livingston nh 13:50 GMT 10/01/2014
in addition to strong payroll growth the Markeit notes :
"Operating margins came under pressure from a sharp and accelerated rise in average cost burdens during September. The rate of input price inflation hit a nine-month high, with firms citing increased raw material costs, salary payments and transportation bills. However, in line with the trend for input costs, latest data also pointed to the sharpest rise in factory gate charges in 2014 so far."

Services inflation can and will rise even faster

U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI September 2014
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

57.5 vs. 57.9 exp. vs. 57.9 prelim

Markit PMI Press Release

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Canada Markit PMI September 2014
GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Markit mfg PMI weaker.

Canada Markit PMI September 2014
GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

53.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. 54.8 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
One characteristic of pivot points is that they can move very wide or narrow after an unusually wide or narrow range in a previous session. Today's pivot support and resistance levels are very wide and should be taken with some caution.

Im looking mainly at the pivot point in EURUSD @ 1.3634
and R1 (1.2697) and S1 (1.2526). Even they appear to be out of range.

Wednesday's Trading
NY JM 13:00 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

Stocks set to open lower => bond yields lower => pushing usdjpy lower (and usd lower) - about sums it

Sort of a 1 +1 doesn't = 2 day so far

But see this EURUSD chart, will put consolidating price action in perspective.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

U.S. ADP Private Employment September 2014
Central Kwun 12:31 GMT 10/01/2014
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

quite interesting, data is good but USD drops lead non USD rebound

Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
GVI Forex john 12:27 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.452%

Stock futures are weaker and giving bond prices a bid.

U.S. ADP Private Employment September 2014
GVI Forex john 12:19 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
ADP Monthly jobs U.S.

ADP data about as expected. Previous data revised down.

Click on chart for nearly 15-yr history

U.S. ADP Private Employment September 2014
GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

+213K vs. +202K exp. vs. +204K (r 202K) prev.

RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 11:36 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
In UK Daily Mail reports that
"More than a million workers got a pay rise today - after the minimum wage was increased by 19p £6.50 an hour. It means those on the lowest legal wage are set to see their pay rise by as much as £355 a year."

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 11:12 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
CHFJPY friday 114.9588 114.4153
will short at 115.0103

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 11:07 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
AUDCAD friday
0.9802 0.9747
could buy that

Japan Quarterly Tankan Survey 3Q14
GVI Forex john 11:02 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

Big Mfg +13 vs. +10 exp. vs. +12 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

EARLIER; BOJ Tankan Survey. Expect to see no improvement in three months time

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:59 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Gold friday range
1206 1196

i am shorting inside Layer 1214 1207
Let him have guys

October Newsletter
NY Global Traders Association 10:59 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile

Thoughts from the Trading Trenches
October 1, 2014
In this issue:

- Currency Wars: Open Warfare
- Forex Trading Outlook for October (video update)

October Newsletter- Thoughts from the Trading Trenches

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex 10:58 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
In the US, the manufacturing ISM index and ADP employment change figures for September are released along with August construction spending. The ISM index has risen strongly since the start of the year in line with the pickup in US activity. However, our global team expect the index to edge downwards from 59.0 in August to 58.9. Following August’s smaller-than-expected payroll gain, which helped persuade the FOMC to maintain its forward guidance, the ADP figures are likely to garner more attention than normal ahead of Friday’s September payrolls data. Finally, monthly construction spending is set to slow a little from last month’s 2-year high of 1.8% m/m.

Lloyds Bank

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:51 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
NDX friday
4079 to 4040
will buy today 4030 for the above range

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:48 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Interesting pair for friday close range
GBPNZD 2.1009 2.0843
I am Longing from

for friday

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:48 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
USD/RUB Traded higher in a range of approx 39.60-39.80 with lower oil prices and currency control rumors weighing on the Ruble. In addition the Ruble's level against the Dollar-Euro basket opened at 44.43 beyond the 44.40 at which the Central bank is set to defend the currency EU Market Update: Peripheral bonds continue to gain amid speculation related to the ECB's ABS program; Weaker German PMI weighs on the Euro

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 10:43 GMT 10/01/2014  - My Profile
Friday close ranges
EURUSD 1.2596 1.2533
Cable 1.6214 1.6129
USDJPY 110.2953 109.7592
USDCHF 0.9619 0.9566
AUDUSD 0.8735 0.8669
USDCAD 1.1264 1.1200

I would use these as option strikes for Friday expiry

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