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BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 23:02 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I have a hard time accepting the FED is intimidated by the power of the algos that do whatever they can. Yellen could simply macroprudentially get rid of them: she has the rule and legislative power. It just may be that the market is bigger and more powerful than the FED.
Would that be a novel idea ?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 22:52 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I've been through no end to rate hikes over the years. The markets get over whatever the Fed does in a remarkably fast period of time. The only difference now is the power of the algos that do whatever they can to exploit (or create) volatility for a short while.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 22:41 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
john you don't see it because it is not there. rate hike is not about some economy being able to take it or not. if it were , a 0.1 or .25 hike would have been done and hardly anyone would have noticed.

It is about the potential risk of melting financial and banking markets
it is why the FEDs are so cowardly about and with it
"We can and must safeguard the financial system" said Janet

When you will have figured out that the financial system has been able to build and immunize itself up from a rate hike induced meltdown , and the FED gang agrees, probably then u will see rates rise.

BREAKING NEWS
GVIForex john 22:21 GMT 05/29/2015
JP -- I don't see how, after the dust settles, a 25 bp hike will impact the economy.


EURO FOR 1.1130/40 next week.
HK RF@ 21:34 GMT 05/29/2015

Probably no accidents, as Obama(US), will save the world again, first time since WWII.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 21:31 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
john 14:52 re "Will the Fed just ignore the data and tighten anyway?"
-
one could chuckle or one could pause and consider
Twitter has #AdviceforYoungTraders who’ve never seen a Fed rate hike

and note one of the article comments by Little Spacey:
“if you’re afraid — don’t do it" is the Fed's motto, so don't hold your breath waiting for them to hike rates
-
good week-end to all

EUR/AUD
Mtl JP 20:48 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I admit to an uneasy contradiction between eyeballing a potential euro up-side rally on 50dma and ECB flooding market with 100 billion/month fiat euro (up from 60bln/m - a 66.6% boost)

EUR/AUD
Mtl JP 20:36 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
U.S. - (that would be Jack Lew) - warns G7 of global economy 'accident' without Greece deal rtrs

Jack seems to be attached to the word "accident": "I think waiting until the day or two before whatever the deadline is, is just a way of courting an accident."

Hey Jack... ever hear of "Accident Insurance" ?
If not u might want to consider xau/eur for example.

EUR/AUD
Mtl JP 20:21 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
euro close above 50dma would bode for uP-side

EUR/AUD
Paris ib 19:59 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
FWIW This week was the SECOND outside week UP in EUR/AUD in the past five weeks. What does that tell us? AUD to collapse? EURO to rally? Bit of both? We shall see.

CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 19:48 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Roubini is part of the magic kingdom PAR. Wake up.

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 19:47 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
CB well if it makes you feel any better it seems like things are not much different here. False flags, fear mongering, war mongering, increased military spending and military presence, less freedom, more censorship, more surveillance and an administration that is completely corrupt.... from the politicians to the CEOs to the media. Do these morons really think we believe the statistics? I guess they don't care. They live in a completely invented reality, complete with neat little stories in the press. It's surreal. The idea seems to be that if you can pretend you have democracy, together with these tick box elections and no-choice is a good choice politicians, then you can basically do whatever you want once you have been 'elected'.

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
PAR 19:43 GMT 05/29/2015
US economic numbers are one big SCAM. Numbers no longer représente economic réalité but are a kind of Disney world représentation of thé réal world. Roubini Krugman , Schiller and other beautiful minds please speak out ans improve économies beyond thé Magic Kingdom.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:40 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report

Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
dc CB 19:29 GMT 05/29/2015
it's timed for the next election cycle. because the BEA is beyond political influence (gag).

The first Dictator of the USA is waiting patiently in the wings, ready to impliment all the new executive powers that have been incrementally accumulated over the past decade and a half.

See things are getting better because of us: Vote Republican
See things are getting better because of us: Vote Democrat

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 19:18 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
"creating economic growth by statistical manipulation"...

Why on earth bother? Honestly this is so ex Soviet Union. Don't they feel the teeniest bit embarrassed? Slightly too weird for me.

U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
dc CB 19:05 GMT 05/29/2015
They are going to do it again at the end of the 2nd Q

• BEA will review all series entering the GDP calculations to identify, and where feasible, mitigate any residual seasonality within its existing seasonal adjustment methodologies.
 • Time frame to implement: Review will take place with the release of second-quarter GDP on July 30. Period covered: 2012, 2013, 2014, and forward.

BEA Works to Mitigate Potential Sources of Residual Seasonality in GDP


Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 18:57 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
US DATA TO PROVIDE INDICATIONS OF THE SCALE OF THE Q2 REBOUND

•Greek negotiations continue as deadlines for IMF repayments approach
•US payrolls report to show labour market is continuing to tighten
•Euro area CPI to provide further evidence that deflation risks are abating

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS FRIDAY 29 MAY 2015


U.S. GDP Numbers and the failed recovery
Paris ib 18:56 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Prior to today's release here was the take on U.S. growth: GDP "is essentially flat... at 0.2 percent. The numbers are actually even worse, if one discounts the redefinitions of GDP that were made by the US in 2013... in effect creating economic growth by statistical manipulation. Those highly questionable 2013 definitional additions to growth added around US$500 billion a year to U.S. growth estimates, or about 0.3 percent of U.S. GDP. Back those redefinitions out, and the U.S. experienced negative GDP four times in the last four years. We get -0.2 percent in 2011, 0 percent in 2012, -2.5 percent in 2014 and -0.1 percent earlier this year."

" the U.S. economy will continue on its 5 year long, stop-go recovery trajectory until the next recession in 2016'....

The good news? Same story worldwide. :-)

The rolling U.S. recession


Crude Up $4.00 off DOE Lows
dc CB 18:55 GMT 05/29/2015
Our calculations along the same lines suggest that applying an additional seasonal adjustment to the BEA’s data results in Q1 real GDP growth of 1.2%. We find that the effect of residual seasonality on GDP estimates has been increasing sharply for over a decade. Of the four major components of GDP, all but one are meaningfully impacted by residual seasonality. For these reasons, the drop-off in estimated Q1 GDP growth has not altered our view that the underlying fundamentals of the economy remain on firm footing.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Joseph A. LaVorgna @Lavorgnanomics

Following weaker than expected retail sales, inventories and housing starts, we marked down our estimate of Q1 #GDP from 3.1% to 2.4%
11:20 AM - 17 Mar 2015

Crude Up $4.00 off DOE Lows
dc CB 18:39 GMT 05/29/2015
5651 on DOE Stocks annc Thurs at 10:30AM
6070 after rig count annc today at 2PM

All on Hope for Liesman's call for another dose Double Seasonal Adjustment, as NuMbErS still don't look that great.

cough cough cough


UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).



CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
note Canadian 10-yr yield down 6bp after weak GDP.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
GVI Forex john 16:59 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
-- Equities ending the week mostly down (Risk Off)
-- Forex USD mixed
-- Forex EUR up on its crosses
-- Fixed Income yields mostly down (Risk-Off)



UPCOMING NEWS
GVI Forex john 15:28 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile


May 29, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, June 1, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU/CN- PMI, CH/EZ/GB- PMI, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, PMI, Construction Spending, CA- PMI
  • Far East: AU/CN- PMI
  • Europe: CH/EZ/GB- PMI
  • North America: US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, PMI, Construction Spending, CA- PMI



eurusd
hk ooozmeeh 15:27 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I dont see euro closing above 1.0967 on (my) daily chart, fwiw

eurusd
hk ooozmeeh 15:27 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I dont see euro closing above 1.0967 on (my) daily chart, fwiw

Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 15:23 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
I ve already pointed out once the importance of 50 day 1.0967 close

so just a repeat, fwiw

SGFX Trading Advice
Singapore SGFXTrader 15:20 GMT 05/29/2015


EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Trigger stop at 136.3. Re-short at 136.27. Hit TP at 135.88.

39 pips profit.

Eurjpy Trade #1 stop (1): 23pips
Eurjpy Trade #2 stop (2): 19pips

Net loss: 3 pips


Short again at 136.24. TP 135.88. Still open

See attached chart 1-min Eurjpy.



Singapore SGFXTrader 12:58 GMT 05/29/2015
Sell EURJPY
Entry: 136.11 Target: 135.88 Stop: 136.3

Short Eurjpy at current level. Target 135.88.

BREAKING NEWS
PAR 15:14 GMT 05/29/2015
PPT joining thé hedge funds. We can close on thé green ans open sharply higher on monday.

Roubini sees ‘pots of money’ being found to help Greece meet IMF deadline
Mtl JP 15:06 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
from your 14:54 link: ...."If Greece fails to meet its payments, “everybody realizes that’s the beginning of a Greek accident that has lots of other collateral damage, not just for Greece but potentially contagion also in financial markets,” Roubini said ...
-
Perplexing how industry experts can - without threat of resposability and accountability - prance around and contradict one another about contagion.

I want to see one single authority on "contagion". This ying-yanging by opinion spouters is what is causing uncertainty and schizophrenic behaviour in the market.

Just because some of these folks have some acronyms behind their names is a licence to spout willy-nilly opions as "experts". In court of law, an "expert"s statements typically trump statements made by lay folk.

Time is past and overdue for accountability by these "experts" by way of tar n feathers, fines and or prison time.

BREAKING NEWS
PAR 15:02 GMT 05/29/2015
Yellen & Bernanke hedge funds buying agressively. Macron - Rothschild buying up thé Cac
Dont spoil thé weekend.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:55 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
first define "tighten"

FED is on record claiming rising rate from 0 to 0.01 is not "tighten"
Market thinks FED just yakking about nominal rate hike IS "tighten"


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:52 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Analyst in Chicago on CNBC talking about Chicago PMI says with the last three readings below 50 that there is no doubt that the data are very weak. She does not expect much in 2Q15 GDP and the earliest there can be a recovery(?) is in 4Q15.

Will the Fed just ignore the data and tighten anyway?

Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 14:51 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
breach ? breach has potential to be jubbed like right now if u r already long

so only if price closes above 50dma (50 day 1.0967 from gv chart-points)

Friday's Trading Thread
HK RF@ 14:38 GMT 05/29/2015


A breach of 1.1000, opens clear the way to 1.1130 target!!!

Friday's Trading Thread
HK RF@ 14:27 GMT 05/29/2015


Keep on bombarding the 1.1000, to take it out for a big upmove!!!

Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 14:20 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
what I find perplexing about 1.10 - a round number - is that with all that has been said about stops right on round numbers, that players still use round number levels.

what is (not) going on with that, anyone ?
tia

Friday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Well they got EURUSD through 1.1000. Shows again that forex trading is a game of stops. So far Jay's 1.1062 game changer level looks safe. I expect there are still a cluster of stops above 1.1100. Not much likely below current levels.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 14:16 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
players now liberated from slaving submission to data as deck now clear

maybe some end-of-month hanki-panki next ?

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile

U.S. Data Charts
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final data revised modestly higher from very weak preliminary data.






Friday's Trading Thread
Mtl JP 14:06 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Sell EURGBP
Entry: current Target: 7140 Stop: few pips above 72


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final May 2015
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
90.7 vs. 90.0 exp. vs. 88.6 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Why EURCHF Tanking
hk ooozmeeh 13:56 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Why EURCHF Tanking, tia

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
Big Miss in Chicago PMI. EURUSD spike stops just shy of 1.1000.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT 05/29/2015  - My Profile
U.S. Chicago PMI May 2015
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
46.2 vs. 53.0 exp. vs. 52.3 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer



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