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26/11/14 9:30 A GB GDP QQ con: 0.70% pre: 0.70%
26/11/14 9:30 A GB GDP YY con: 3.00% pre: 3.00%
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GVI Forex Blog 04:47 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE Q/Q: -2.2% V -1.9%E; biggest decline in 11 quarters - (CN) China NOV Westpac Consumer Confidence index: 111.0 v 110.9 prior - (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CONSUMER C Asian Market Update: Shanghai hits new 3-year highs; Crude Oil slumps ahead of OPEC - Source

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
kl fs 04:20 GMT 11/26/2014
sell gbpusd 1.5701, adding above 1.5720 stop all 1.5757

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
Provo John 03:57 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Jay, is that the day you bought her a mink coat or am I thinking of someone else?

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:18 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile

One of my forex trading tips is not to be complacent, which is easy to do in a week like this where the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is not generally one when big bets are made. You can already see forex traders resigned to a holiday week where many in the US take an extended break. This does not mean you should not stay alert as I will explain in this Thanksgiving Tale.

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale

AceTrader Nov 26: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:13 GMT 11/26/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Nov 2014 02:00GMT

USD/JPY -....... Dlr weakened vs the Japanese yen on Tuesday after volatile sessions. Although price has rebounded after early sell off from 118.57 to 117.70 in Asia due to BoJ meeting minutes n comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who voiced concerns over the impact of the weaker yen on the economy, price briefly jumped to 118.30 in NY morning after upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (prelim.).
Later, dlr retreated to 117.72 in NY afternoon following the release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and then further to 117.67 in Wednesday's Tokyo morning.

Although intra-day's weakness in Asia suggests choppy trading with mild downside bias remains, sharp fall below 117.36 (Fri's reaction low from last Thursday's fresh 7-year peak at 118.98) is not envisaged as investors are awaiting the release of a slew of U.S. economic reports in NY morning.

At present, offers are noted at 118.00-10 and then 118.25/30 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 118.60.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.40-30 and around 117.10 with stops located just below 117.00.

Wednesday will see the release of German import prices U.S. GDP and CBI distributive trades, U.S. core PCE, durables, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, pending homes sales change and building permits.

Sydney ACC 01:38 GMT 11/26/2014
And the TWI is higher than where it was on January 2. Last night's figure 69.0 versus 68.6.

Brisbane Flip 01:29 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Despite all the headlines about "4 year lows" AUDUSD is only down a very moderate 4% YTD

Sydney ACC 01:13 GMT 11/26/2014
RBA appears to be more aggressive nowadays talking down the AUD than RBNZ with reference to the Kiwi. NZ Finance Minister Bill English a couple of weeks ago indicated the government would be happy with NZD trading in the mid to high seventies versus USD.

Last nights statement by the RBA's deouty governor Philip Lowe that the RBA has room to lower interest rates if need be was to my understanding the most recent such indication. These kind of opinions are not formulated off the cuff. they are thought out well beforehand. Its possible therefore that the statement from next weeks board meeting could err further to the easing side. Given that outcome AUD will be in for a further hit.

NZD on the other hand is open to sharp declines from RBNZ statements. Nevertheless so far the Kiwi has rebounded in every instance.

Both central banks are probably cognisant of the impact QE in Europe would have on global financial markets for instance many European government bonds recorded historical lows yesterday.

The market has been factoring in for some time a cut in the Australian cash rate. Its been the market economists who have been tipping an increase. Many of these forecasters have now adjusted their opinions on an increase out to more than twelve months from now. Remember its the traders who back tyheir opinions with real money.

Brisbane Flip 01:13 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
John I have normally steered pretty clear of AUDNZD (except at extremes)....the kiwi's spasmodic liquidity sees some pretty bizarro price action, saying that....

I think despite the headlines that AUD/USD is on 4 year lows, Aussie is actually pretty high versus Yen, Euro and even Kiwi and will come significantly lower. As I have blabbed a bit people look at interest rates and think "so when is the first rate hike" whereas I think after years of inflated consumption pushing Australia to the least affordable cities lists we actually have deflation in our future.
I got the same "it can't happen" "There is no such thing as deflation outside Japan" push back when living in Ireland in 2006/07. Now Australia is not Ireland but we have priced everything to perfection and have squandered a once in a lifetime opportunity where Government tax take ballooned but was spent just shortsightedly thinking everything extrapolates to the horizon.

Mtl JP 01:12 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
usdyen S1 Sup 1 117.56

gc sf 00:57 GMT 11/26/2014
it really was an interesting night and lots of data later to trade from ... but intra-day Asia .. I'm not expecting much.

$yen has gone from market leader to just a sideshow at present - that takes away a lot from our market... and how far things can move.

gc sf 00:50 GMT 11/26/2014
one of the best guides to AUDNZD is the Westpac Wellington morning summary - Jay or John posts .. so I would keep my eye out for that John .. that would have a much better view than anything I have.

Provo John 00:13 GMT 11/26/2014  - My Profile
Well, this cross is poking it's head below 1.0915 which has been a double bottom going back to July. I was to much of a ninny to go short at the double ( now triple ) top at 1.13 ( been burned too many times on AUD and NZD ).

So, would love to get some feedback Al, Flip, sf

USD falls as Yields fall
Mtl JP 23:59 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
probably a good position. players may take off some of their shorts ahead of Draghi's drivel to maybe try to resell again from higher level

Nota bene
Mtl JP 23:25 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Speech in Helsinki by Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank
Time Thursday, 27 November 2014, at 1.30–2.30 pm.

In connection with the visit to Finland of Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Finland will organise a seminar at the University of Helsinki. President Draghi will deliver a speech on the European economy, after which the audience will have the opportunity to ask questions. The event will be held in English.

USD falls as Yields fall
gc sf 23:19 GMT 11/25/2014
it is long EUR @69 and short $CHF @64

USD falls as Yields fall
Mtl JP 23:17 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
gc sf 21:59 / maybe better to let the EA do the trading (it should have no opinion) *-^

USD falls as Yields fall
Brisbane Flip 22:46 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
You need to be patient.
This is almost always 3 steps forward and 2 steps back (most of the time 3 steps back -haha) and 1.2480 is only 50% of 1.26 (last weeks high) to 1.2360 (monday low).

Dollar is having a rest vs Yen and the baton is being passed around but there are always some clumsy baton changes.

Making Money and Losing Money?
dc CB 22:18 GMT 11/25/2014
Hewlett Packard: HPQ
Non-GAAP EPS $1.06, up 5% Y/Y.
GAAP EPS $0.70, down 4% Y/Y.

USD falls as Yields fall
gc sf 21:59 GMT 11/25/2014
honestly 3 days ago I thought we would be trading 1.2220 .. now we are having to discuss the reasons for EUR being back @1.25 again.

really dislike this currency

USD falls as Yields fall
Brisbane Flip 21:45 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Like Japan for past 25years, Europeans savers forced in to buying sovereign debt and in most cases a percentage has to be German, Dutch etc. Problem is because Germany run budget surpluses there is very little to buy. Europe (like Japan before it) has huge personal wealth but these savings are funding Government debt hole and which should be stimulating the real economy. By using QE to fund government debt (like US) this could also this vast savings into the real (non govt) economy but Germans don't really see. care about the rest of Europe.
Instead a strong currency (e.g EURJPY up 50% from two years ago) will import more deflation until it becomes competitive.

USD falls as Yields fall
dc CB 21:10 GMT 11/25/2014
Bond vigilantes are deep in hibernation. lol

Terrell E. Polk and her husband, Andrew S. Lombara, a bond trader at JPMorgan Chase, have been coming out to Snowmass for several years. “We tried other areas, but we decided we just liked Snowmass the best,” Ms. Polk said. Last year, the couple, who live on the Upper East Side, took the plunge and bought two condos at the Viceroy — a two-bedroom and a one-bedroom.

Ms. Polk said she recently discussed the idea of buying even more units at the Viceroy, and would have gone ahead if the couple had not already owned several other vacation homes, including two houses in Southampton and a place in Rosemary Beach, Fla.

Colorado Ski Country Homes for New Yorkers

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

USD falls as Yields fall
dc CB 20:42 GMT 11/25/2014
Re-hypothecatable High Quality Collateral.

can't do it with Cash - which most have a ton of
can't do it with Stox
Due to the masacre in commodities and PMetals... well those are now margin calls.

and lastly, what was the best performing assest this year...a "must have shown you own on your books", as the month is now essentially over.

USD falls as Yields fall
Paris ib 20:41 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
ACC - consider the U.S. position as a nation with a savings deficit which needs to attract foreign capital. A fall in U.S. yields makes U.S. bonds less attractive to foreigners. In Europe there is no such need (to attract foreign capital) so no impact on the Euro per se. The two markets are very different.

USD falls as Yields fall
Paris ib 20:39 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
JM - for now I reckon we have front running. A lot of this is Central Banks mucking around the market.

USD falls as Yields fall
Paris ib 20:38 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
JM - if you consider that both Spain and Italy do not need to import foreign capital (that is they do not run current account deficits and have sufficient national savings - indeed Europe as a whole has started to run a substantial current account surplus - that is it has excess savings and is exporting capital) then yes this makes sense. The U.S. savings deficit (current account deficit) is around 3 percent of annual GDP. So the U.S. has to pay up to attract foreign capital. The only question is: what kind of premium does it have to pay?

USD falls as Yields fall
NY JM 20:36 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Those yields are depression/deflation levels unless they are front running QE from the ECB.

USD falls as Yields fall
Sydney ACC 20:34 GMT 11/25/2014
European yields are dragging the rest of the market down.

Ten year yields recorded as per Bloomberg:

Netherlands 0.877% -4 bp
Germany 0.75%
Spain 1.922% -5bp
Austria 0.906%

Germany's recorded low yield is 0.715%.

Most other countries recorded record yields too.

A sell off in the dollar because of declining yields is difficult to explain when yields elsewhere are on the same trajectory.

USD falls as Yields fall
NY JM 20:31 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Does Spanish and Italian yields under US yields with Spain below 2,% and Italy approaching 2% make any sense? It is peripheral yields that seem to be leading US rather than vice versa.

Bond vigilantes are deep in hibernation.

USD falls as Yields fall
Paris ib 20:29 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
John - I was just wondering if the rally in Treasuries is more of the same: a reaction to central bank policy. That would explain the rally in Europe. In the U.S. I'm not so sure. It could all be little more than the start of silly season. So maybe we all need to take a deep breath and let all the position squaring, end of year stuff take place. That is maybe we just ignore everything that happens for the next month and come back and take a look at things in the New Year. It is possible to overthink things.

USD falls as Yields fall
GVI Forex john 20:26 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
ib- great question. I have no idea!

Makes no sense to me. The economy is OK

I heard there was a huge bid to buy treasuries today. I have heard no details.

USD falls as Yields fall
Paris ib 20:14 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Are the markets wrong or is the market preparing for a collapse in economic growth? Anyone got a clue?

USD falls as Yields fall
dc CB 20:12 GMT 11/25/2014
can't get enough of that US Paper. Dec Treas Futures rolling into March...looks like convering shorts and going long ????.

ZH reports:
If yesterday's 2 Year stopping through auction was best described as "blistering", then today's $35 billion sale of 5 Year paper, which again stopped through the When Issued 1.614% by a whopping 1.9 bps, was nothing short of a scorcher.

Scorching Demand For 5 Year Treasurys: Indirect Bid Highest On Record

USD falls as Yields fall
Paris ib 19:50 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Without the support of rising interest rates the USD is under pressure. With the FED on hold for the next six months or so there is no reason to expect yields to rise. More downside for the buck and stocks. Sell those USD rallies. :-))

Mixed U.S, Data. GDP Beats, But Setiment Surveys Miss. German 3Q14 GDP Unrevised
GVI Forex Blog 18:37 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: GB- GDP, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, New Home Sales, Pending Homes, Weekly Crude, 7-yr

Mixed U.S, Data. GDP Beats, But Setiment Surveys Miss. German 3Q14 GDP Unrevised

GVI Forex john 18:30 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    09:30 GB GDP Widest Economic Indicator
    12:30 US PCE defl y Top Fed Inflation Measure.
    12:30 US Personal Income Key to demand
    13:30 US Initial Claims Weekly Jobless
    13:30 US Dur Goods Industrial demand
    13:45 US Chicago PMI regional Indicator
    13:55 US U Mich final Long term Sentiment Survey
    15:00 US New Homes Sales Housing Metric
    15:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Existing Homes Sales 15:30 US EIA Crude Impacts Spot oil prices
    18:00 TRY 7-yr Treasury borrowing
    23:30 JP Core CPI Japan inflation
    23:50 JP Ind Out industrial activity
    US Holiday
    OPEC Meeting All day
    8:55 DE unem Kchg German unemployment
    9:00 DE fl HICP Key Metric for ECB
    13:30 CA Cur/Acct  Canadian external Accounts
    23:50 JP Retail Sales  Consumer Demand
    7:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer Demand
    10:00 EZ FL HICP Key ECB Metric
    12:30 CA GDP  Widest Economic Measure
    23:30 JP Unemployment 3.60% 3.50%

GVI Forex john 18:10 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile

25 November--  17:55 GMT- Current Market Conditions
Markets remain in a mild RISK ON posture late Tuesday with equities in Europe closing mixed to higher. Bond yields remain mostly higher. today were sharply split with 'GDP strong but two sentiment surveys disappointingly soft. Final German 3Q14 GDP data were unrevised.  This is a holiday shortened week in the U.S
  • In forex, the USD is mostly lower. The EUR is mixed on its major crosses. Gold and oil prices are lower.
  • In the Far East, equities ended mixed. Japan reopened after a local holiday..The Nikkei gained and JGB yields are steady.
  • European bourses closed broadly higher. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are down sharply. European peripheral bond yields are mostly lower.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is steady. U.S. shares are up.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:50 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile

I prefer the key one hour trendline, currently at 1.2510, as the key on top (along with 1.2504)

london red 17:39 GMT 11/25/2014
euro. hourly trendline now 124565. supports current move. last month high 12485. if looking like a close abv here (end of month ie friday) will ruffle a few feather and some short covering. while below a close no higher than 12430 is favourite.

sell gbpusd
jkt abel 17:22 GMT 11/25/2014
adding short if 1.5720-30 seen,same stop

Mtl JP 17:21 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
It is very regrettable that 10-yr yields are just around 2.3%

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:17 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile

One of my forex trading tips is not to be complacent, which is easy to do in a week like this where the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is not generally one when big bets are made. You can already see forex traders resigned to a holiday week where many in the US take an extended break. This does not mean you should not stay alert as I will explain in this Thanksgiving Tale.

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale

sell gbpusd
jkt abel 17:17 GMT 11/25/2014
sold 1.5709, stop 1,5756

Global Markets News
nw kw 17:14 GMT 11/25/2014
Canadian house price rises are to keep presser for rate hike called for may but can be stalled for the USA fed

Global Markets News
Mtl JP 17:05 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
TORONTO (Reuters) Nov 25, 2014 - Canadian house price rises are expected to slow in 2015 after another strong year and homebuilding will gradually cool from elevated levels, but a property market crash still looms as a risk, according to a Reuters poll.

Global Markets News
PAR 16:59 GMT 11/25/2014
GDP revisions are looking to the past .

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 16:52 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
The very good third quarter US GDP numbers gave markets a real sugar rush this morning, putting US futures in the black and sending European shares out to their highs. The rush did not last and the S&P500 is in the red at its lows and Europe has given up some or all of their gains US Market Update: US Q3 GDP Sugar High Wore Off Fast

Holiday Travel
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:28 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Wednesday before Thanksgiving is the busiest traveling day of the year and with forecasts for bad weather in the Northeast tomorrow, perhaps some will leave today. This may account for a book squaring Tuesday.

Mtl JP 16:26 GMT 11/25/2014  - My Profile
Euro-area financial institutions should consider creating securities that combine sovereign bonds to give the European Central Bank more assets to buy, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

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