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02/03/15 13:30 A CA Cur/Acct C$b con: n/a pre: -8.4
02/03/15 13:30 A US PCE defl y con: 1.30% pre: 1.30%
02/03/15 13:30 A US Per Income con: 0.40% pre: 0.30%
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In general for a week
Sydney ACC 12:37 GMT 03/02/2015
Too many factors clouding my crystal ball to accurately predict what the exchange rate will be by the end of the year. My son will be starting HSC so with that to worry about mightn't be around at that time.
If Aussie does weaken you need to look at it from another perspective a AUD 5 million property at parity is USD 5 million at 0.6000 it then costs USD 3 million. There are expats buying real estate now, sight unseen earning foreign currency. Chinese property developers are flooding the Sydney market.
I guess what I'm saying is that today's market is different to what it was 15 years ago. We didn't have a huge Chinese middle class looking to invest overseas. There's also the likelihood of a depreciating remininbi and euro to consider.
If I had to take a stab at it somewhere between 68 cents and 73 cents.

In general for a week
jkt abel 12:34 GMT 03/02/2015
GG you will be paying swaps daily though

In general for a week
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:33 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile

EURUSD 4 hour chart - one of those charts where everyone is looking at the same level

In general for a week
DXB GG 12:05 GMT 03/02/2015
@ACC, interesting to hear what your long term (year end ) view is on the Aussie.

I'm on the south pacific peso tag ;)

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 12:04 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
119.97 HOD (120.00 back in play)
R2 120.20
Daily Pivot 119.51 (Jay's 50 level?)

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 12:00 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Daily Pivot 1.1203 (sets the tone today)
R1 1.1230 (1.1237 HOD)
R2 1.1272

20day 1.1357 out of range

In general for a week
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:57 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
As a reference, monthly EURUSD pivot is 1.1299 (neutral level) so a negative bias while below it, stronger bias as long as it stays below 1.1260-70

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 11:54 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Equity markets open mixed ahead of key event risks for the week (US payrolls, ECB meeting); Markets have subdued reaction to China's rate cut; EU Mid-Market Update: Euro Zone CPI remain in negative territory but pace of decline eases; unemployment improves to near 3-year lows

In general for a week
Sydney ACC 11:43 GMT 03/02/2015
If we test 0.7500, its likely we will then test parity with the Kiwi.

To test 0.7500 RBA will cut the cash rate tomorrow plus the wording of the accompanying statement will be doveish leading the markt to believe that a further cut is likely probably after the Mrach quarter CPI has been released.

I don't believe a cut to the cash rate tomorrow is as evident as some believe:
1. Housing prices in Sydney are going ballistic - a house in a street nearby sold for AUD 2.17 million on Saturday almost AUD 600k above the reserve.

2. The RBA believes that reductions to the cash rate do not affect the economy at these low levels as much as they did previously.

3. Last month's cut was a toss up, some board members were prepared to wait until tomorrow's meeting.

4. Petrol prices have risen substantially since the last meeting. In early February petrol was 99 cents a litre in Sydney it is now AUD 1.34.

5. Most commodity prices have stabilised. Coal, however, is doomed.

I think they'll stay at the current level but iundicate an easiung bias. This'll depress Aussie and knock it down maybe half a cent or so.

In general for a week
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:41 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
The bottom of the range was 1.1260-70 until last Thursday's breakout (now resistance) and today we had a low at 1.1160. Maybe just a coincidence to see 60 holding but Beas watching. The major level remains the 1.1098 low. .

In general for a week
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:40 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
I posted this yesterday on GVI Forex before the market opened and it has turned into a counter intuitive Monday.

Mondays have tended to be counter intuitive days with Friday trends not following through. Logic says this may not be one of those days but it has been the pattern and much depends whether EURUSD can stay above 1.1150 to maintain a focus on 1.12 and whether USDJPY can stay below 120.

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 11:29 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 11:27 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Not getting 1.1350 anywhere?
at least temp?

In general for a week
london red 11:23 GMT 03/02/2015
euro. Res at 11262. Then 11321.monthly high no higher than 11450/60.

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 11:23 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
eurusd march entry to short
is from 1.14 to max 1.1634
tgt 1.08 area end of march

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 11:18 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
I have no problem with .7500 end of march tgt
from 0.79 to .80 entry
after that expect .85+

In general for a week
DXB GG 10:57 GMT 03/02/2015
You might know that I am pretty much an Aussie bear across the board. Every chance I get to short the bugger I will take.

I really do think that Aussie will be revisiting levels last seen since Dec 2000 by the time the year is out.

In general for a week
nw kw 10:49 GMT 03/02/2015
copper on run up side new support for aud

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 10:44 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
AUDUSD will still long this week
0.7838 0.7736
0.7867 0.7682
0.7902 0.7629
0.7945 0.7575
Although i think a big drop into next month is coming for 0.75
what do you guys say?

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 10:41 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
USDCAD expecting a flat week
will still long for 1.29 mid march
1.2647 1.2393
1.2709 1.2343
1.2770 1.2292
In General below 1.2440

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 10:38 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
for the week
0.7585 0.7487
0.7627 0.7436
0.7677 0.7385
0.7727 0.7334

expecting a good dive the week after from 0.77+ into 0.73ish

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 10:24 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
NGAS Longs
GTC Orders
2.8619 2.5403
2.9538 2.4509
3.0457 2.3615
3.1376 2.2722

Till the end of week

GVI Forex john 10:15 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions

Manufacturing PMIs:
China- in contraction
Australia-very weak
Japan-flash revised higher but soft
Swiss- very weak
EZ- flash revisions mixed

FOREX-: EUR higher USD mostly higher
EQUITIES- Asia higher Europe mixed. U.S. futures up
FIXED INCOME- EZ yields mixed EZ periphery down, except up in Greece U.K down. US up
COMMODITIES- Gold up, Oil down, Commodity currencies down

GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
EZ flash HICP (CPI) higher than seen. Core steady. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target.

More Charts:

GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
EZ flash HICP (CPI) higher than seen. Core steady. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target.

More Charts:

PMIs Mixed. Later This Week- ECB Decision and U.S. Employment
GVI Forex Blog 10:05 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: US- PMIs, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Construction Spending

PMIs Mixed. Later This Week- ECB Decision and U.S. Employment

GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) February 2015

yy: -0.30% vs. -0.50% exp. vs. -0.50% prev.
yy: +0.60% vs. vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.60% prev.

Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

TTN: Live News Special Offer

AceTrader Mar 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:56 GMT 03/02/2015
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Mar 2015 09:50GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1208... The single currency found renewed buying at 1.1166 at European open n rose to 1.1213 in European morning, supported by the release of some upbeat manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone together with cross-buying of euro vs sterling.

Italy and Germany manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 51.9 n 51.1 vs forecasts of 50.3 n 50.9 respectively.

Bids are now seen at 1.1970/80 n more below at 1.1950/60 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1240/50, suggesting further choppy trading is envisaged ahead of NY open.

This morning the single currency met renewed selling at 1.1245 on Friday due to dollar's broad-based strength on upbeat U.S. data n Fed officials' hawkish remarks. Euro further extended weakness to 1.1160 in Asian morning before recovering. Offers was now tipped at 1.1185-90 and more at 1.1200. On the downside, bids was located at 1.1160-50 with some stops seen below 1.1150.

Market players is focusing on the the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Investors are keenly waiting for further details on its 1 trillion euro ($1.1 trillion) government bond-buying programme, which begins this month.

Economists expect the ECB will also decide whether to accept Greek government bonds as collateral for its direct funding, which the bank stopped doing at the start of February.

GVI Forex john 09:34 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
U.K. Charts

U.K. Manufacturing PMI improves and beats estimates.

GVI Forex john 09:30 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Manufacturing PMI February 2015
U.K. Charts


54.1 vs. 53.3 exp. vs. 53.0 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 09:21 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
EARLIER: Final Japanese PMI. flash PMI revised up slightly...

GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
EARLIER: Swiss PMI sharply weaker.

GVI Forex john 09:09 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMIs. Flat overall pattern.

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Final MFG PMI February 2015


51.0 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.1 (flash)
47.6 vs. 47.7 exp. vs. 47.7 (flash)
51.1 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.5 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 08:51 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Japan final PMI February 2015

51.6 vs. 51.5 (flash) exp. vs. 51.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:50 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Swiss PMI February 2015

Earlier Data News

47.3 vs. 47.4 vs. 48.2 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

Swiss Charts

"Spectacular Developments" In Austria: Bail-In Arrives After €7.6 Billion Bad Bank Capital Hole "Dis
nw kw 08:12 GMT 03/02/2015
JP- whuts with gibberish- I have pull up side u/j for now

"Spectacular Developments" In Austria: Bail-In Arrives After €7.6 Billion Bad Bank Capital Hole "Dis
Mtl JP 07:05 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile

Dramatic Days...

GVI Forex Blog 05:42 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
*Economic Data***- (CN) CHINA FEB MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.9 V 49.7E; 2nd month of contraction- (CN) CHINA FEB NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.9 V 53.7 PRIOR- (CN) CHINA FEB FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.7 Asian Mid-session Update: Shanghai A-shares slightly higher follow PBoC interest rates cut; USD/JPY approaching ¥120 handle on Dollar strength - Source

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 05:16 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD TGT 1.1350 to 1.1400

Gold shorts added for 1180 tgt

Would to buy GBPNZD near 2.00 to tgt 2.1 + in 2 weeks

GBPAUD near 1.96 - 1.94 would be great for 2.02 ( 2 weeks)

SaaR KaL 05:11 GMT 03/02/2015  - My Profile
Good choice
I am waiting for it below 133 to Buy
target 136

DXB GG 05:10 GMT 03/02/2015
Nice to wake up to a profit take for a change

Aussie still looks like its in the doghouse, will look to short this bugger again on a decent retracement.

UK rg 04:00 GMT 03/02/2015
Entry: Target: Stop:

On monthly chart candle is 'bang on' the kijun sen (ichomoku) First time for 40 months
Could signify a strong move up

AceTrader Mar 2: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:08 GMT 03/02/2015
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Mar 2015 00:16GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro opened lower in NZ on Monday to 1.1167, then 1.1160 ahead of Asian open.
Reuters reported Greece's leftist PM Alexis Tsipras accused Spain n Portugal on Saturday of leading a conservative conspiracy to topple his anti-austerity goverment, saying they feared their own radical forces before elections this year.

In a speech to his Syriza party, Tsipras accused them of taking a hard line in negotiations which led to the euro zone extending the bailout programme last week for 4 months.

"We found opposing us an axis of powers ... led by the governments of Spain n Portugal which for obvious political reasons attempted to lead the entire negotiations to the brink," said Tsipras, who won an election on January 25.

"Their plan was and is to wear down, topple or bring our goverment to unconditional surrender before our work begins to bear fruit and before the Greek example affects other countries," he said, adding: "And mainly before the elections in Spain."
Tsipras has portrayed the Eurogroup deal as a victory for Greece, even though it meant extending the bailout programme he had promised voters to scrap. He noted German lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives had attacked the Greek leadership when they approved the extension on Fri.

"We have all watched the strong opposition within Angela Merkel's party which shows that unacceptable concessions have been made to Greece," he said.
So far he has public backing. A poll conducted by the University of Macedonia for SKAI TV showed 56 percent of Greeks believed the extension had been a success, compared with 24 percent who said it represented a failure.

Ireland's FinMin has said Athens must negotiate a 3rd bailout when the extension expires in Jun - something Tsipras denied on Friday.

FinMin Yanis Varoufakis called into question a major debt repayment Greece must make to the ECB this summer, after acknowledging Athens faces problems in meeting its obligations to international creditors.

Data to be released this week:

New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Australia new home sales, business inventories, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, UK manufacturing PMI, mortgage approvals, Canada current account, U.S. PCE, personal income, personal consumption, ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending on Monday.

Australia building approvals, RBA rate decision, Swiss GDP, Germany retail sales, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales and ISM New York index on Tuesday.

Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, retail sales, UK services PMI, Canada BoC rate decision, U.S. ADP employment and Fed beige book on Wednesday.

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, France unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, Italy GDP, UK BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, Canada Ivey PMI and U.S. jobless claims and factory orders on Thursday.

Japan leading indicator, Germany industrial output, France exports, imports, budget balance, Swiss CPI, Italy producer prices, EU GDP, Canada building permits, exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, unemployment rate and international trade on Friday.

Fun with Covers
dc CB 01:15 GMT 03/02/2015
Advice for those with Over $5ml net Worth

From Barrons


Remember Remember the 15th of October
dc CB 23:31 GMT 03/01/2015

zerohedge @zerohedge · 37m 37 minutes ago

"We are revising our forecast for 10-year Germany Bund yields from 1.25% at the end of this year to 75bp" - Goldman Sachs

Well since Goldmans Target for the SnP by the end of 2015 has already been exceeded and its end of 2016 Target is less than 100pts away...What are to make of this Bund target....

shud be reached by the end of the quarter?

On October 15, the deepest and most liquid market in the world demonstrated a six standard deviation move in less than two hours, a move that happens once in 506,797,346 days! It is impossible to suggest that this supersized move in the US Treasury market was due to downward assessment of economic expectations. Economic expectations shift weekly – if not daily. Clearly, a shift in the structure of the US Treasury market and substantial reduction of private sector market makers is at the core of recent complications. Similarly, this issue extends well beyond simply the sovereign debt market for US securities, as a result of the interconnectedness among markets and the unique role for Treasury debt as benchmark securities. To be sure, a sustained “flash crash” in the world’s leading fixed income market could readily unleash a pronounced slowdown of the global economy, or worse. """

from the CFS

"What's in your wallet"

Remember Remember the 15th of October
dc CB 23:22 GMT 03/01/2015
Remember the algo-ignited, six sigma anomaly that sent 10-year yields down 30 bps in seemingly no time flat on the morning of October 15? Well despite the CFTC’s contention that it was “just a high volume day” without “any break in liquidity,” the Center for Financial Stability is out with a new report which cites the Treasury flash crash as a glaring example of what happens when an increasingly illiquid market collides head-on with “herding investment behavior.”

More Flash Crashes To Come As Shadow Banking Liquidity Collapses

GVI Forex john 22:42 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
AUD PMI. Third straight monthly contraction.

GVI Forex john 22:35 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
Australian PMI weaker. AUD negative?

GVI Forex john 22:30 GMT 03/01/2015  - My Profile
Australia PMI February 2015

Earlier News ALERT

45.4 vs. n/a exp. vs. 49.0 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

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