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30/07/15 23:30 A JP Unemploy con: 3.30% pre: 3.30%
30/07/15 23:30 A JP core CPI con: 0.00% pre: 0.10%
30/07/15 23:30 A JP CPI con: n/a pre: 0.10%
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dc CB 18:03 GMT 07/30/2015
where DOES all the money come from??

your kidding.

Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 18:00 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
ong NAS100 ... Entry: ~4,530 Target: ~4,630 Stop: <4,500 ...
1/3 closed ~4,566 ... new stop at BE ...
another 1/3 out at 4.596 ... stop for last 1/3 at 4.57

nw kw 17:59 GMT 07/30/2015
30% tax hear

Livingston nh 17:53 GMT 07/30/2015
Health Care accounted for nearly 25% of NFP jobs in Q2 - pharma/insurance company mergers continue apace - and all this with Lower Costs (affordable??) --- where DOES all the money come from??

nw kw 17:41 GMT 07/30/2015
banks might be allowed increase dividend or will if hike in for the fed

dc CB 17:33 GMT 07/30/2015
both Bloomberg (more than 100% of this yearís increase in the S&P 500 Index is attributable to two sectors, health-care and retail. Thatís the tightest clustering for an advancing year since at least 2000) and

The Wall Street Journal (Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt Disney Co. account for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization gains in the S&P 500) have been forced to expose the ugly truth about US equities... it is not a stock market - it's a market of 6 tail-chasing momentum stocks.

The Stock Market's Ugly Truth - Only 6 Stocks Matter

Livingston nh 17:14 GMT 07/30/2015
SPX closed this morning's gap - internals are pretty well balanced but volume slightly tilt to neg // so tomorrow end of month and week should attract buying of stronger stox (as Always) w/ the benefit of the very weak having been dumped earlier this week

Non Market News is the only risk for tomorrow // data may tempt some to try to make chicken salad from chicken feathers (or vice versa)

Thursday's Trading Thread
dc CB 16:46 GMT 07/30/2015
Stox, Bonds, USD.

TINA (There Is No Alternative) to have a Pretty Window July BONUS

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
london red 16:45 GMT 07/30/2015
cable. hourly close below 15568 fib would suggest lower but think shorting sterling is fighting the trend as mkt getting set for next weeks mpc, the minutes and inflation report which all fire off together. at a stretch we could get 6:3 aginst a hike which would make some waves. certainly think mkt will be going long into report and if only slightl beat on data then may be better to travel than arrive, but for now mkt likely to find sterling attractive even against dollar if buying dips, but certainly vs euro

Exclusive: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:43 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile

The FOMC meeting has come and gone and with the exception of one small woird change it should have been uneventful. Instead, markets are being forced to price in the risk of a September rase hike and that has boosted the dollar. This has seen the dollar firm across-the-board and is likely to enter the new week on a firm footing, with support seen ahead of the key US jobs report. See my forex trading outlook for the week ahead.

Exclusive: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
Belgrade Knez 16:32 GMT 07/30/2015

london red

thank you.

Pedro da Costa ‏@pdacosta - wsj
dc CB 16:31 GMT 07/30/2015
The hint in the last paragraph of course was that Pedro had also managed to rub certain of his colleagues and editors, some who are observed with far greater regard by the Fed because of their willingness to only ask preapproved questions.

And that, in a nutshell, is how the world's "freest press" operates.


Fed Reporter Pedro Da Costa Is Leaving The Wall Street Journal After Asking Yellen "Uncomfortable" Questions

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
london red 16:30 GMT 07/30/2015
Knez, yes only move back above 10920 on a closing basis rules out 10885 but realistically anything abv 10920 sees momentum lost. below 10885 is 10870 another prev low. only thing to watch later tomorrow maybe is that 100hma is going to soon start heading lower towards the 200hma. currently there is about half a figure between them so it will happen late tomorrow maybe but mkt will rally slightly before or on the cross to stop out traders following that system.

Livingston nh 16:19 GMT 07/30/2015
Away from Greece -- the EUR couldn't rally on the sleepy Fed, nor on the "disappointing" US GDP -- the longer term will be dominated by QE in EZ and US short rates // China trade, Europe election cycle, Russian sanctions are negatives but Iran may be positive (see French arm deals w/ Saudis)

Pedro da Costa ‏@pdacosta - wsj
Mtl JP 16:07 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
Friends and colleagues: Tomorrow is my last day at The Wall Street Journal. Thank you for reading and stay tuned for my next adventures.

g-v's Trader's Advocate looses a champion

Now remains to be seen what "next adventures" Pedro has in mind.
Pedro may need some encouragement / support

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
london red 15:57 GMT 07/30/2015
yes we are nearer bottom than top end of pennant. and i dont think it will break on initial test on downside. lower channel is about 107 or just below, top about 114 and a half.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
Mtl JP 15:54 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
one reason I dont like a longer term short eurodlr trade atm is the RR trading it for 1.07 against 1.1550

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
Belgrade Knez 15:52 GMT 07/30/2015

london red

if current EURUSD hourly close below 1.0920, do you still see it go lower to test 1.0885 please?

thank you.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
Mtl JP 15:52 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
where, do you think, is the bigger trade:
in pre-lift-off dlr climb or post-lift-off fade - vehicle of your choice or, say, dlrx for example.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
london red 15:42 GMT 07/30/2015
exactly JP, all things being equal they will raise sept/dec. so data must fall off for them not to raise. ie there is no bar, we are already at it and just need to maintain.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
Mtl JP 15:15 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
of note:
"New methods in how the government calculates gross-domestic product also showed the economy grew 0.6% in the first quarter instead of contracting by 0.2%."

not passing judgement on the validity, what is more important is that it helps janet justify her eagerness for her "lift-off"

Horrible Detail
Livingston nh 15:04 GMT 07/30/2015
IMF has been the wild card since the new bailout talks started -- IMF wants debt forgiveness under its rules of sustainability, EU (Merkel/Schauble) says "CAN'T" do under its rules // both have political issues -- IMF exceeded its commitment levels w/ Greece and many members object to further involvement -- EU (note Cameron response to contribution) needs to save EZ but Greece can't be saved -- Merkel risks political fight in her party to save EZ, a non acceptable risk

Kick the Can strategy is running out of ROAD but barring a Syriza dumping Tsipras (snap election?) the ECB will get paid in August

GVI Data Calendar for 31 July 2015
GVI Forex Blog 15:01 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile

July 30, 2015 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 31, 2015. Trading News Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- unemployment, CPI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- flash HICP, Unemployment, CA- GDP US- Chicago PMI, University of Michigan

  • Far East: JP- unemployment, CPI
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales, EZ- flash HICP, Unemployment
  • North America: CA- GDP US- Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, COT Report

GVI Data Calendar for 31 July 2015

GVI Forex john bland 14:33 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

+52 vs. +50 exp vs. +61 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Horrible Detail
london red 14:32 GMT 07/30/2015
bored maybe, but cant ignore it until resolved since it can infect other indebted nations if creditors are too soft. a bit like a nagging toothache that comes and goes. you know you have to see the dentist but keep putting it off.

Horrible Detail
GVI Forex john bland 14:29 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
red- I get the feeling that the markets have gotten bored with the Greek crisis?

Horrible Detail
london red 14:26 GMT 07/30/2015
they have until august 20th to scrape by when ecb payment due, just over 3 yards. unless they pass reforms it will go to and most probably past the wire again. so it does make euro a sell mid august and suggest monthly candle back filling may take place earlier in the month of august.

Thursday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:20 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
US 2 year: 0.739% +3.5 bps

Thursday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 14:16 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
DAX -18
S&P -9

DE 0.638% -3bp
us 2.270% -1.2BP

Not telling us much!

Horrible Detail
PAR 14:13 GMT 07/30/2015
Can ECB increase ELA to Greece if IMF refuses to participate in the Greek rescue . Do not forget that the ECB is a " Rules Based Institution " .

Horrible Detail
GVI Forex john bland 14:08 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
I doubt the IMF will torpedo a deal. They are just negotiating imho.

Horrible Detail
PAR 14:02 GMT 07/30/2015
Without IMF participation No Greek Deal .

Thursday's Trading Thread
PAR 13:58 GMT 07/30/2015
Hollande calling Lagarde ? Hollande calling Merkel ? Hollande calling ... Lets say Hollande is on the Phone .

Thursday's Trading Thread
london red 13:57 GMT 07/30/2015
euro. needs an hourly close below 10920 to tgt last month low 10885.

Thursday's Trading Thread
PAR 13:56 GMT 07/30/2015

Thursday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex 13:54 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
09:38 (GR) IMF staff on Wed told board that Greece's poor reform record would disqualify it from a third IMF bailout, potentially delaying IMF participation in bailout plan - FT

- The staff determination means that while they will continue to participate in bailout talks in Athens, the IMF will not decide whether to agree to a new program for several months, possibly not until 2016.
- The delay in IMF decision on participation in a new bailout could cause problems for the Greek talks because Germany has said it would be impossible to get approval for the Ä86B program from the Bundestag without the IMF participating.

- Source

Thursday's Trading Thread
PAR 13:52 GMT 07/30/2015
Another emergency weekend Euro group meeting ?

PAR 13:50 GMT 07/30/2015
Yellen may start to use the word " VIGILANT " to indicate lift off .

Thursday's Trading Thread
Livingston nh 13:47 GMT 07/30/2015
EUR/GBP below the danger line again - pound being buoyed by expected MPC hawkishness preliminary to rate hike (assuming prior Fed action) BUT doubtful that any move can be contemplated w/ EUR/GBP down here

Another empty threat by Tsipras re: snap elections -- the Troika and Greek politicians would LOVE that -- he is trying to scare his own party when he would be the BIG loser // This guy is the worst Bluffer in the world -- the weekend looms

Away from the complacent Treasury market corporates are under pressure as deals for acquisitions scramble -- EUR was a factor recent announcement of $5.5 bio for CYTEC

PAR 13:41 GMT 07/30/2015
IMF cannot join Greek rescue, board told

PAR 13:39 GMT 07/30/2015
Bill Gross says Fed recognizing zero percent rates causing harm to U.S.

By Jennifer Ablan

NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters) - Closely followed bond investor Bill Gross on Thursday said the Federal Reserve is beginning to recognize that ultra low interest rates increasingly have negative as well as positive consequences.

Gross' remarks in his August Investment Outlook came a day after the Fed, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, left its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero but dropped several hints that it is near seeing enough improvement in the job market to prompt officials to raise the rate as early as September.

The roughly $7 trillion that the world's three biggest central banks, including the Fed, have pumped into the financial system since the financial crisis has succeeded mostly in lifting prices of securities rather than the cost of goods and workers' wages, Gross said.

Thursday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 13:27 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
We are seeing bank analysts who say the GDP revisions increase the chances for a September rate hike. It all will depend on the next two employment reports (before the next FOMC).

NY JM 13:27 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD: 1.0937

Currently trapped between 1.0920-60, latter is a double top.

Only buyers would be profit takers as hard to see many looking to go long. I would like to see the stop hunt red suggested but probably hard to cone by.

london red 12:58 GMT 07/30/2015
thos older revs are backward looking, mkt latched on q1 14 up to -0.9 from -2.1 and extrapolates to q1 15. mkt sees what it wants to see and thats improving us growth and a reason to raise rates. until data falls off you cant fight trend.

PAR 12:54 GMT 07/30/2015
2012 revised 1.6 to 1.3
2013 revised 3.1 to 2.5 pct
2014 revised 2.4 to 2.5 pct
Net weaker.. BLS down plays Q1 distortions...

london red 12:53 GMT 07/30/2015
Chris, after fed there was no more risk to gdp release so folk positioned long usd then, thats what i was talking about last night. now you either covered pre data if you are risk averse like me, or you covered on the release given it did not suggest continued downside (at least initially not). i actually did a mixture of the two with the help of an put option which i left for the print.
there wasnt much of a run down for euro early this week, in fact euro moved higher, so positioning certainly wasnt skewed too far to dollar long side until maybe overnight. hf specs certainly will have covered on the data and are now looking for a blip to sell or they will be forced to sell break of 10920. those still holding may have stops over 10965/68 or the 200hms or 10990/98. not sure we can break 110 but data wasnt spectacular enough to kill yourself selling euros thus think lower hanging stops can be run (65/68).

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Steady
GVI Forex Blog 12:48 GMT 07/30/2015  - My Profile

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in line.

Click on chart for over ten-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Steady

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. 2Q15 GDP a Bit Lower Than Expected
PAR 12:44 GMT 07/30/2015
DJ Trade Provided Tailwind to Economy in 2Q -- Market Talk

8:38 EDT - International trade was a net positive for the US economy last quarter, adding 0.13 percentage point to the period's 2.3% GDP growth. Exports grew an annualized 5.3%, outpacing imports' 3.5% gain. The results are somewhat surprising; many economists worried a strong dollar and turmoil in overseas economies has been holding back demand for US-made goods. Meanwhile, US businesses pulled back on investments, spending less on construction projects and equipment. Nonresidential fixed investment fell at an annualized 0.6% in 2Q, the first decline since 3Q12. The drop could be a sign companies are acting more cautiously even while consumers stepped up spending and the housing market appears to be on more-solid footing. (; @ericmorath)

London Chris 12:43 GMT 07/30/2015
red are you saying market is not positioned long enough USD as most missed out on fomc move?

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