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FOREX FORUM
31/10/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm con: n/a pre: 0.00%
31/10/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y con: 1.50% pre: 1.50%
31/10/14 12:30 A US Per Inc con: 0.30% pre: 0.30%
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yen
jkt abel 11:00 GMT 10/31/2014
red, what sort of consolidation you think? 110-112?

yen
london red 10:57 GMT 10/31/2014
daily trendline at 111.82 done just enough to hamper. support 67 and 50. if below there period of consolidation.

Where's Ginko?
manila tom 10:28 GMT 10/31/2014
where is Soros now? reversing his negative view on stocks?

Where's Ginko?
manila tom 10:25 GMT 10/31/2014
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

so usdjpy heading to 120 with 110 being support?

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:23 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Policy divergence among the G3 central banks has kept the USD on a firm tone. The surprise additional easing from the BOJ sent the USD/JPY above the 111.50 for a 7-year high. The BoJ shocked markets with expansion in annual asset purchases from 50B to 80B coupled with tripling in its purchases of exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Monetary policy divergence intensifies as BOJ eases further


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 10:04 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) higher as expected. Core falls. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target.



Breaking Bad
HK RF@ 10:02 GMT 10/31/2014

...........................................................................................
HK RF@ 15:40 GMT 10/30/2014


Silver will most-probably hit 16.0, which may provide a terra firma.
..........................................................................................

So now it is suggested to watch this level for some recoil(if any) side by side with gold at 1160/65 area.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
EZ Unemployment September 2014





ALERT
11.50% vs. 11.50% exp. vs. 11.50% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
flash HICP (CPI) October 2014





ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.70% vs. vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

hicp
london red 09:56 GMT 10/31/2014
market is expecting a weaker than f/c 0.4 after lower than f/c from germany and italy. so a 0.4 print may see a relief rally. think we need to see 0.2 or lower to sustain a run at 1.25. so far bonds havent moved lower, so dollar struggling to hold onto gains vs euro. hicp should free up the market a bit more and the move post the flash reaction will be the key in the short term trend.
sup 15/00 47, res 71 2614

BOJ Shocks Markets With Policy Easing. JPY Broadly Weaker. German Retail Sales Miss. Active Calendar
GVI Forex Blog 09:38 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- HICP, Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Mich

Today sees Eurozone flash HICP, U.S. Personal Income data and the final October University of Michigan Survey. Over the weekend, North American clocks are turned back one hour. The BOJ surprised the markets by openly admitting that its policies have not been working and announcing a significant increase in policy ease. The JPY is sharply weaker.

BOJ Shocks Markets With Policy Easing. JPY Broadly Weaker. German Retail Sales Miss. Active Calendar


AceTrader Oct 31: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:28 GMT 10/31/2014

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 111.30

Update Time: 31 Oct 2014 08:19 GMT

Dollar's intra-day rally above October's peak at 110.09 to a fresh near 7-year high of 111.53 in European morning after BoJ's surprise easing confirms long-term uptrend has resumed and further gain to projected obj. at 111.98 is likely after consolidation, however, o/bot condition should prevent sharp move beyond there today and risk has increased for a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.09 (previous resistance) would signal a top has been made and yield correction towards 109.47.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 09:26 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile

09:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Early in Europe, markets are in a MIXED RISK posture following an unexpected easing of monetary policy by he Bank of Japan. The JPY is sharply weaker on the news.  Markets are also digesting weaker than expected German retail sales data. In the Far East, equities ended higher.  European bourses are trading higher as well. U.S. share futures are up at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are steady. 10-yr bund yields are down sharply and gilts yields are easier. Peripheral European bond yields are mixed.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.



$yen
GVI Forex 09:10 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Here's the full story for the BoJ surprise

(Reuters) - The Bank of Japan surprised global financial markets on Friday by expanding its massive stimulus spending in a stark admission that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected after a sales tax hike in April.

BOJ shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
EARLIER... Japanese CPI. The impact of the Sales tax increase still in these data.





BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 08:49 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
EARLIER: German Retail Sales data mo/mo much weaker than expected.




BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
September 2014 German Real Retail Sales




Earlier NEWS Release

mm: -3.20% vs. -0.90% exp. vs. +3.50% (r) prev.
yy: +2.30% vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev (r).


TTN: Live News Special Offer

HALLOWEEN
PAR 07:06 GMT 10/31/2014
Markets are getting disorderly . To the upside no problem,
but disorderly anyway .

Where's Ginko?
Paris ib 06:52 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
tokyo ginko 17:32 GMT October 30, 2014
Where's Ginko?: Reply
Thanks ib.

Wouldnt stay short going into boj's statement ..which could send flying to 113.00/20.

GT all.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile we had the guys over at ZeroHedge (and others) suggesting the BoJ statement was no big deal. :-)

property
gc sf 06:50 GMT 10/31/2014
it had the right pattern for a bullish day - but certainly was not expecting 111 lol

I know it is bid now but even Japanese hate to buy highs -- so if we see a few comments then we can see back down to 110.40 just as fast.

property
Provo John 06:38 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
That is the truth! I had taken a $jpy long @109.20 not long after your comments and went about other business not really to concerned about it. I was watching a program with my daughter when I saw it pop.
110.64 I thought was going to tougher though. Time to just enjoy the ride.

I got whipped around earlier in the US session on gbp/$ however it finally worked out and I will close my shorts here.

Thank you for heads up.

GVI Forex Blog 06:36 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 PPI Q/Q: 0.2% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.2% V 2.3% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.5% (3-month high) V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.3%E - (JP) JAPAN SEPT OVERALL HOUSEH

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan CPI slows further ahead of BOJ growth projections and GPIF allocation u - Source TradeTheNews.com


property
gc sf 06:30 GMT 10/31/2014
I take my dog for a walk along the beach on GC -- and there will be large family groups of Chinese 10-15 walking as well enjoying the view .. this is definately where the demand is from atm.

general area is a little down - but cruise ship terminal / commonwealth games will be a larger boost.

John - when $yen gets busy like that - hard to sit down and type -- one minute it was 109.38 - next it wasn't lol.

property
Syd 06:26 GMT 10/31/2014
Sydney ACC have a friend on the GC Estate agent , said that the Chinese dont ask the price, only when they can collect the keys ahahah - seems the market there picking up a bit. wonder what will happen if that Cruise Terminal gets approval, the Qld Government are keen !! another point if the Aud does drop considerably, will make the property market even cheaper for overseas investors - food for thought !!

Aussie property
Syd 06:15 GMT 10/31/2014
Sydney ACC Hi
just noticed this article http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/australia-to-be-worlds-largest-lng-exporter-hsbc/story-e6frg9df-1227108582779
totally agree with your views on the property market , and as you say its hard to know whats happening a week ahead.
I have heard the Aud could go down as far as .60c but personally cant see it .. think a lot depends on the speed of the hikes by the Fed will be the game changer - agree with you the range for now 87 -89 but would be a seller in the mid 90's :-) nice to hear from you

Aussie property
Sydney ACC 06:01 GMT 10/31/2014
Michael Pascoe wrote a good article a couple of weeks ago about the property market. He wrote that Australia does not have a single property market it has tens, hundreds even thousands of property markets. He also stated tat the GC goes through a boom and crash every decade. Only a couple of years ago I believe up there it was difficult to find a buyer. I was up there in July over school holidays, things seemed to be much better.

I agree with you the capital inflow sustaining AUD at these levels is more than that going into housing.

Personally I think the best bet at the moment is Qantas its got all the elements in the right combination. It will benefit from a lower Aussie, cheaper oil and the fight with Virgin has ceased so it is now making money. Its appreciated 20% this week.

$yen
Provo John 04:54 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Finally my news services catches up. BOJ targets 80tln yen increase in monetary base.

$yen
Provo John 04:51 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
anyone care to share what hit the fan?

$yen
gc sf 04:12 GMT 10/31/2014
18-43 range so far

I guess people were waiting on this BOJ stuff to finish off the distribution normally you don't have to wait that long .. anyway see how it unfolds as this comes out.

Aussie property
gc sf 04:07 GMT 10/31/2014
in Sydney it depends where you live .. just near where I had been living the entry level houses have risen this year from 1.2 mio to 1.6 mio and the longest a place is on the market is 7 days.

here on GC - a lot of offshore people are buying but the local market is pretty slow.

Also I get the impression that there is still people moving to Sydney so no matter what there is an underlying demand at some natural level.

I don't think property can be the only thing holding up the AUD @8700
.. really how much is coming in for that reason 1 bio tops ? that is about 1 cent worth.... it has to be something more along the lines of reserve types buying -- as it just seems sustained.

You mentioned 87-89 range honestly given just a couple of months to go - I'm not sure you can expect anything more than that.

Aussie property
Sydney ACC 03:43 GMT 10/31/2014
From what I've read in the last couple of weeks the Sydney market has gone off the boil. I suppose its a combination of things - sellers asking too high a price, or buyers - reluctant to pay what's being asked. There's a lovely house in our neighbourhood auctioned tomorrow I might go along and see what transpires, I also know the agent so will get a better idea from him.

As far as AUD is concerned there aren't many positives in my mind. Iron ore and coal are well known negatives. I saw a prediction iron ore will fall to USD 70 per tonne. But no one has written anything I've seen about gas exports. The price has fallen in line with oil prices and the producers need a much lower AUD as their cost base is so high.

It also seems the market traders and economists are living on different planets - maybe Venus and Mars. Well the traders have factored in a two-thirds chance of a rate cut while the analysts are calling for an increase. While these guys keep calling for an increase at the same time they keep pushing out the date. CBA I believe now seeing it in November next year, Give me a break its difficult enough to try and predict whats going to happen in five minutes never mind 12 months. Nevertheless if the RBA does backtrack and introduce new restrictions such as LVR changes on residential mortgages that eliminates the main support for the cash rate remaining where it is. On that note I saw where a Kiwi analyst did call that RBA will cut the cash rate by 50 basis points. GS still maintain there will be a cut, but they've been saying that for months.

So where does that leave Aussie probably ranging for the remainder of the year between 87 cents and 89 cents given what's happened so far. What's your prediction?

GVI Forex Blog 03:36 GMT 10/31/2014  - My Profile
Better than expected US Q3 GDP (3.5%) and the much bigger contribution of government

Morning Briefing : 31-Oct-2014 -0336 GMT


Aussie property
Syd 03:24 GMT 10/31/2014
Sydney ACC thats very interesting , do you see the lower aud helping the property market ?

EUR + GBP
Sydney ACC 02:42 GMT 10/31/2014
When the time comes for these offshore punters to sell their Australian properties they will be required to sell it to locals. I'd say many of these foreigners have overlooked this requirement. Be interesting if for one reason or another they turn out to be forced sellers en masse.

AceTrader Oct 31: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:42 GMT 10/31/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Oct 2014 00:08GMT

USD/JPY - .......Latest news: 'Japan government to approve GPIF reallocation on Friday, raising Japan equity target to 25% from the current target of 12%, two government sources said.'
Japan's economy minister Amari said that :
"Abe's cabinet is ready to take steps as needed, when asked about chance of compiling stimulus measures;
will consult with Abe whether stimulus package is needed, after scrutinising Jul-Sep data;
no decision yet on whether to complete stimulus package, also on size of any package."

Last night U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 3-1/2 week high of 109.36 versus the Japanese yen on renewed risk appetites due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index futures n U.S. stock markets.
Dow Jones index now rose by 221 point or 1.3% to 17196. Bids was located at 109.20-10 and more at 109.00. On the upside, some offers were tipped at 109.40 and 109.60.

Friday will see the release of Japan's all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia's PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada's GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.

EUR + GBP
shanghai bc 01:25 GMT 10/31/2014

Relatively strong Aud has the constant Asian demand flow issue..Not very large market but India,China,Japan,Korea all want to invest there..And a very favourite place for second home for millions of nouveau riche from those places..Same as hot London property market..Some folks are just lucky or unlucky to be in the right place..

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 23:51 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index at 4-week highs, but off peak

* Aussie, NZD perk up as well on better risk appetite

* BOJ expected to maintain stimulus, but could surprise

* GPIF, euro zone inflation also watched

FOREX-Dollar underpinned by GDP, BOJ next in focus


EUR + GBP
gc sf 22:57 GMT 10/30/2014
I'm not too sure what to make of the price action - but from the trades basically anything above 1.2622 is all selling stops don't come in till 1.2665

GBP anything above 24 all selling stops don't come in till 1.6068 area.

AUD + NZD is really interesting - you have 2 CB's talking down their currencies weekly .. NZD actually selling theirs - yet we rally almost every time.

I just don't see a case where USD can advance across the board without more resistance in these pairs ... otherwise it will be just xxx/jpy buying.

$yen
gc sf 22:51 GMT 10/30/2014
Friday is typically the day of the strongest buying in $yen when the market is bullish .. the biggest dip you would normally see is roughly 20 points.

so if it is to be a bullish day today that would leave us with a range of

109.15/109.92

if the market is to just sideways range then

109.10-109.60

if the market for some reason would show a more bearish turn

108.75 / 109.50

usually you can get a read on the likely outcome after just a few hours.

USD/CAD
nw kw 22:31 GMT 10/30/2014
is to remain soft for gov reports all cad exports need it /1.100 min.for gov.

USD/CAD
nw kw 22:24 GMT 10/30/2014
aud/cad this where find big flows with out usd/ chart looks cat can weaken in this chart aud cat//

USD/CAD
nw kw 22:00 GMT 10/30/2014
cad correlated to crb index was call crb is soft last week if terns up cat will strengthen but the usd can keep good presser on comedies from usd strength /for how long is hard part///oil has support from Nat gas from usa will xsport ngas next year//so still drilling hols in ground that will keep investments in oilf pach,not run from investing,

[oil refiners starting to draw for new year car gas refinement supported if a dip in oil but id test long at 80.0

BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 21:23 GMT 10/30/2014
The New York-based bank on Thursday revised its quarterly net income to $2.8 billion from a previously reported $3.4 billion, citing legal expenses.

The bank's operating expenses rose from $12.36 billion to about $13 billion.

Citi previously reported third-quarter net income of $3.44 billion, or $1.07 per share, on Oct. 14. The results exceeded Wall Street estimates

Citi Restates Earnings Due to Regulatory Probes


A picture is worth a 1000...
dc CB 21:20 GMT 10/30/2014


Laurette Eugene at the Point Blank Body Armor factory in Pompano Beach, Fla. The United States economy grew at a better-than-expected rate in the third quarter.

U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Annual Pace in Third Quarter


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):


FRIDAY
00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
10:00 EZ FL HICP  ECB target
12:30  US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55  US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 20:30 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile
CLOSING PRICES...


PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 20:22 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT 10/30/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


USD/CAD
Livingston nh 19:30 GMT 10/30/2014
kw - any thots on USD/CAD and oil/energy prices?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Livingston nh 19:26 GMT 10/30/2014
kw - Bullish on USD/JPY but seems a lot of today's move based on BoJ - I don't see a big announcement of softer policy (not even sure there could be a softer policy) - stats out of Japan have been better but they always shoot themselves in the foot // they need higher interest rates and tax CUTS -- but that's a 20 yr failure


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