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27/02/15 13:30 A US GDP 4Q14 con: 2.10% pre: 2.60%
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AceTrader Feb 27: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:38 GMT 02/27/2015
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Feb 2015 02:37GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite yesterday's brief drop to 118.68 in European morning, the greenback rebounded strongly to 119.51 due to dlr's broad-based strength after hawkish comments Federal Reserve's James Bullard together with upbeat U.S. economic data.
Bids are now located at 119.20-15 and more at 119.05-00 with some stops seen below 119.00.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 119.50 and more at 119.70-80.

Reuters reported Japanese households cut spending more than expected and retail sales fell for the first time in 7 months in Jan, data showed on Friday, a sign the central bank's radical stimulus has yet to convince consumers that inflation will take hold.

Factory output jumped in January as exports rebounded on solid U.S. and Asia demand, but manufactures see output rising only slightly in the current month and then slumping in March, adding to evidence of an uneven economic recovery.

The soft consumption is a headache for the BoJ, which hopes its aggressive money printing will fuel expectations that prices will rise ahead and prompt households to spend more now.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan inflation, unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial output, housing starts, construction orders, UK consumer confidence, France producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy CPI, Germany CPI, import price index, U.S. GDP, Chicago PMI and pending home sales.

Asia
gc sf 00:45 GMT 02/27/2015
Tensions with Germany over 'greedy' Greece's debt

* Only 22% of Germans support Greece Bail-Out

* "No more billions for the greedy Greeks!" screamed mass daily Bild Thursday under a huge "Nein!" ("No!") headline.

Link


usdcad
kl fs 23:23 GMT 02/26/2015
anyone with usdcad position? looks like heading north?

Asia
gc sf 22:48 GMT 02/26/2015
Good Morning,

$yen is pretty interesting - I doubt it rises much past 119.90 no matter how bullish USD gets against the EUR

yesterday both the political side + BOJ side went out of their way to sooth over the press reports of friction between them -- so now is just not the time for massive $Yen movements.

given that AUD + NZD while being weaker may not get as weak as the EUR -- as this seems a more EUR move than anything else.

USD tightening back on the cards -- check .. but the onset of ECB QE that people mentioning more important in the short term.

As I understand it... this German Move basically says all collateral for Europe at the moment must be German .. other paper just doesn't cut it.

AUD @7800 seems more of a proper reflection of the recent data than 7900 + it also shows the fx mkt isn't thinking rate cut at next meeting but probably the one after ... if they were thinking cut we would be 7730-50.

Absolutely fascinating day ahead really.

ECB version of QE
Mtl JP 22:42 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
nw kw / if english is not your language suggest to turn on the automatic corrector in your browser. your acronyms, respectfully, r - at least to me - garbage for which I don't have decipher time.
like that u might stop wasting your time, see?

ECB version of QE
nw kw 22:28 GMT 02/26/2015
last time Canadas gov dretly backeds home lending / hm- can eur do that?

ALBERT EDWARDS: 'We are at that stage in the cycle where I begin to doubt my own sanity'
HK RF@ 22:19 GMT 02/26/2015

Most US economic data missed expectations in February.

And that investors are sending stocks to all-time highs is making Societe Generale's Albert Edwards crazy.

In a note Thursday, Edwards wrote:

"With equity markets galore hitting record highs clearly I must be missing something big! We are at that stage in the cycle where I begin to doubt my own sanity. Iíve been here before though and know full well how this story ends and it doesnít involve me being detained in a mental health establishment (usually)."



LINK



OIL What's Going On?
dc CB 21:46 GMT 02/26/2015
VLCCs are hard to come by these days as most are floating full. WTI has been in contago, with 6 months forward for delivery averaging $10 more that the front month. Buy now Store and sell later has been the game as crude has crumbled.

But today the Brent-WTI Spread was $11-12. The floating stock can be sold NOW and replenished NOW to get that $10/bl.


ECB version of QE
nw kw 21:44 GMT 02/26/2015
one pumped the dividend how can anything dump tsx will be a farce to

ECB version of QE
Mtl JP 21:39 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
nw kw 18:39 that could be(come) a crimp to canadian banks

OIL What's Going On?
Mtl JP 21:37 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
a VLCC cost approx 100-120 million. It carries say on average 2,000,000 barrels. What does it cost to hold each barrel per day - and how long before those barrels have to be unloaded before they go stale ? (they are organic matter after all)

Stagnant Pools
Mtl JP 21:27 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
CB 18:45 - Recall what I call Janet's reason for getting and keeping her job: by her defined 3rd FED's mandate: can and must safeguard the banks. Those toxic MBS will never see daylight of market. I recall Ben saying - long time ago - the FED is willing to keep em on the books till they become good or eventually expire and get buried in the FEDs garbage heap - where no-one cares anymore.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 21:20 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile


CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Get It Now
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:42 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile

For those who have gotten our emails, I have offered my videos on proprietary trading patterns + my unique trading strategy. They are designed to get you on the right side of the market and hopefully shift the odds in your favor.

There is a free option available. Send me an EMAIL for details.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 20:12 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):††
    23:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
    FRIDAY
    13:30 US GDP 4Q14 widest economic statistic
    14:45 US Chicago PMI regional PMI
    14:55 US U Mich final consume Sentiment
    15:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Existing Homes

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.



USD Surges Higher Into Monthend As Dealers Prepare for March EZ QE
GVI Forex Blog 19:52 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
TOP NEWS ITEMS: JP- Unemployment, CPI, DE- flash HICP, US- GDP, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Survey, Pending Homes Sales

USD Surges Higher Into Monthend As Dealers Prepare for March EZ QE


In general for a week
dc CB 19:24 GMT 02/26/2015
The New Algos

Link


In general for a week
dc CB 19:20 GMT 02/26/2015
SaaR KaL 18:37
Longing Oil with dips for 52.30
till 48.5

with you on that idea just waiting for the wash out. to finish.

Virtu --- The Market Maker...scores another winning day

(ZH guide to trading Oil funny and then again extremely sad for the rest of us traders)

How To Trade Oil For HFT Idiots 102


OIL What's Going On?
dc CB 19:08 GMT 02/26/2015
I mean you can put the stuff into one of these at float it over there. It's not like Nat Gas...locked here in N.America

and isn't there blns of barrels of it already floating out there.

VLCC


OIL What's Going On?
dc CB 19:03 GMT 02/26/2015
yesterday the Ramp into the NYMEX pit close (at 2:30ET) was Squeeze dem Shorts...all the way to 5120+

Today? repeat from the LOD or down down down to 4700- or Less.

Comods trade on supply and demand.? Brent/WTI spread just shy of $12

Stagnant Pools
dc CB 18:45 GMT 02/26/2015
I didn't read the FT article, but just looking at the chart...dosen't that also show the amt of toxic MBS that these banks unloaded onto the Fed during the course of all the QE's, stuff that had no market and was worth pennies on the dollar, if it were Marked to Market?

ECB version of QE
nw kw 18:39 GMT 02/26/2015
Real Estate Watch: Unsold condos stacking up outside Toronto and Vancouver

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 18:37 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Longing Oil with dips for 52.30
till 48.5

Bond Market Avalanche
Paris ib 18:30 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Bond yields creeping higher in the U.S., the Yellen impact is fading.

ECB version of QE
Paris ib 18:27 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
The whole thing feels like Alice through the Looking Glass to me. Red pill or blue pill?

Stagnant Pools
Livingston nh 18:21 GMT 02/26/2015


The chart shows the shift in holdings of some of the larger US banks post QE and regulation -- some might call it hoarding

The article is here
LINK

ECB version of QE
Livingston nh 17:48 GMT 02/26/2015
Draghi starts QE in a different environment than BoJ, BoE or Fed - the guidelines should be clearer next week but the commentary about the expected effect of this "stimulus" is very uncertain - the negative rates are a consequence of post crisis regulation in Europe and the US in conjunction with the IDIOTIC QE that buys Safe assets (i.e., Gov't bonds aka MONEY), those same assets that the regulators mandate the banks hold

So Draghi starts with already lower rates and a smaller pool of both assets and willing sellers -- this is really a test of the Unintended Consequences of Good Intentions



CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
dc CB 17:35 GMT 02/26/2015
PS
This is different from a Sovereign bond/note paying Neg Rates because it remains a "safe place" to park cash.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++====
the attraction to the Sover being that it can be used as Collateral...mutiple times. The purchaser of the bond/note is not Lending to the Sovern, the purchaser is just paying a price for a liquid unit of collateral, which is better than Cash, since you cannot multiply CASH by re-hypothecation


In general for a week
SaaR KaL 17:32 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD
I doubt goes lower
IMO might see at least 1.1310
will short next day near 1.1366

AUDUSD Shorts I am Out now
Will short next day

Cable shorts
Closed all
Reshort next day 1.5560

The Soros Put
Paris ib 17:22 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
It's still out there. It must have cost them a bundle to hold it all this time (over a year now) although it started out smaller. Still...

The Soros Put


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
dc CB 17:20 GMT 02/26/2015
"Even in U,S. very large depositors have to PAY to hold funds at JPM. What are they going to do? dig a big hole and bury 100 million in cash in the street?"

The Fed's Regs require the TBTF banks to hold more capital in reserve to cover the "large" depositors. Don't know what the actual numbers are, but basically "The Margin" has been raised. The result being that JPM, which had been able to deploy 95% those large CASH Deposits for use in its OWN trading ventures, can now only use 89%. Thus the Margin required for trades has risen. They are passing along this Margin Rate to their depositors in the form of a Neg Interest Rate.

This is different from a Sovereign bond/note paying Neg Rates because it remains a "safe place" to park cash.


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Paris ib 17:10 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Negative yields is the price of safety. You give the money to someone in the belief it will be 'safe' and they charge you for the privilege. When you get negative bond yields (like in Germany and I think Switzerland - is there anywhere else?) then you are giving that money to a Government which will keep that money safe. That's where we are right now: safety first. It smells of panic to me.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
I don't understand negative German yields. ECB is forcing it. Maybe their goal is to weaken the EUR. You are seeing negative yields everywhere.


Even in U,S. very large depositors have to PAY to hold funds at JPM. What are they going to do? dig a big hole and bury 100 million in cash in the street?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Paris ib 17:06 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
I guess the trigger for any event will be monetary policy. That's what it ends with. An ill advised move by some Central Bank.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Paris ib 17:03 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
It seems to me we are getting to some sort of extreme.

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 16:53 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
for an odd reason i just shorted gold
TGT 1990

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 16:52 GMT 02/26/2015
I assume EZ yields are falling in anticipation of QE next month. That would also explain higher equities.

As for U.S., the Fed seems on track for a late 3Q15 rate hike. They seem hell bent on a policy "normalization". Many see this as positive. I don't know.

Forex values reflect this scenario. JPY is in its own world.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Paris ib 16:43 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
John do you have a narrative on this? I'm trying to figure out the longer term scenarios. What do negative yields mean in Germany? They can only mean a flight to safety. No-one buys bonds with a negative yield as an investment. Or do they? Gold is also higher. Though not huge. It seems right now the aim of the game is safety first. You'd have to say in that environment it's RISK OFF. Or do we have a bipolar market?

Get It Now
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:38 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile

For those who have gotten our emails, I have offered my videos on proprietary trading patterns + my unique trading strategy. They are designed to get you on the right side of the market and hopefully shift the odds in your favor.

There is a free option available. Send me an EMAIL for details.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 16:38 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Highlights
Equities up
EUR down
USD mostly up
bond yields (except US and UK) lower
Gold up
Oil down

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
GVI Forex john 16:34 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 16:30 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
NZDUSD
0.7575 0.7280

Bond Market Avalanche
Paris ib 16:26 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Negative bond yields in Germany and the prospect of QE has not helped the U.S. bond market any today. Neither has the rally in the USD.

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 16:26 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
XPDUSD
812.9131 785.7707

New Record High on the DAX
Paris ib 16:24 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Another record close coming up on the DAX. And this time the gain was over 100 points. Bit mad, but then so are negative bond yields out to 7 years on the German bond curve. We are in unchartered territory here ladies and gentleman so no-one really knows how this ends. All the bubble heads will be talking....

In general for a week
SaaR KaL 16:24 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
Shorts CADJPY 95.8954 91.9031
EURUSD 1.1360 1.1006
USDJPY 119.6893 117.9860

USDCAD 1.2852 1.2456

AUDUSD 0.7862 0.7632


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 16:23 GMT 02/26/2015  - My Profile
The US January CPI inflation report roiled global markets earlier this morning, although the volatility stemming from the data has pretty much subsided mid-morning.

TradeTheNews.com US Mid-Session Update: CPI Inflation Turns Negative


Moving the Goalpost
dc CB 16:04 GMT 02/26/2015
Sub 6.5% NFP, when the monthly was 8-9%, seemed like a trigger for a rate rise on Mom and Pop's Certificate of Deposit retirement savings...But hey.

also Re:
J.P. Morgan is making the moves because certain deposits are less profitable to handle than they used to be. New federal rules essentially penalize banks for holding deposits viewed as prone to fleeing during a crisis or a stressed environment.

Translation: JPM will be required to Hold a larger percent as capital Protection in case of a "bank run" by these depositors. This will limit the amount that can be deployed as Trading capital. Along with their other FDIC Insured "Trading Funds"

This is why the New Regs make it "less profitable".


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