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FOREX FORUM
21/10/14 20:30 C US API Energy con: n/a pre: n/a
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Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 15:01 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Gold
although I am bullish in general
Shorts 1253 is ok today IMO

Day's Trades
London Chris 14:57 GMT 10/21/2014
Kal, you should be a science fiction writer. I will take the other side of that wager.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:22 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD could be heading back to 1.2820 today from here

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
This election is a set up for 2016. The day after the election Obama will be a lame duck. I don't think the market reacts strongly to the vote, although a strong Republican outcome could give the USD a temporary lift.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
PAR- frankly I don't know why Bullard made those comments. All I know is that the Fed has a dysfunctional communications system. I don't pay much attention to most of what they say, except Yellen, Dudley or Stanley Fischer. The rest of them are speaking for themselves.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Data were better than expected.


eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:05 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Red, we keep our own database using US closes (see below).

Global-View Forex Chart Points


BREAKING NEWS
PAR 14:03 GMT 10/21/2014
Good numbers . Will James Bullard change his opinion on QE4 ? CanCNBC interview him ?

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
Paris ib 14:03 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
So Jay it's a pointless election? Sounds familiar. :-)

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
Paris ib 14:01 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Thanks John. I had the vague impression that the 'halt' had already taken place. The FED is still doing stuff. So is the military. But other than that I didn't get the impression there was a lot happening. Maybe I am missing something.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) September 2014




ALERT
5.170 vs. 5.100 exp. vs. 5.050 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


eurusd
london red 13:59 GMT 10/21/2014
Jay its all down to your provider. my couple are showing 32 and 34.

Draghi - How to spend it
PAR 13:58 GMT 10/21/2014
FXStreet (Łódź) - Jim Reid, Head of Global Fundamental Credit Strategy at Deutsche Bank, comments on ECB's launching of its covered bond-purchase program on Monday.

Key quotes

"Yesterday saw the ECB begin their purchases of covered bonds in the market. We will get their updated balance sheet numbers every Monday afternoon (starting next week) where we'll get a good idea how successful they are going to be at getting close to their soft target for the balance sheet."

"So every Monday's release will now be important in this regard but for now we had some early indications from the FT which suggested that the ECB purchases included Spanish, German and French issues."

"These purchases weren't enough to stabilise peripheral debt as Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10Y yields rose +10bps, +9bps and +18bps respectively whilst German and US 10Y yields both fell slightly, by -1bp and -5bps respectively."

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
In general. Republicans are seen increasing their majority in the House and they have a decent shot at taking control of the Senate, but that is by no means certain.

I'm not certain how the markets would react to a new government. One problem we have in the U.S. is that either party can grind everything to a halt because of the rules BOTH parties have put into place. Election is to weeks from today.

RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
Livingston nh 13:57 GMT 10/21/2014
Yields backing up if Housing Data is decent the mood shift in bondland might scare stox again -- basically a no news day rally is usually suspect

eurusd
london red 13:57 GMT 10/21/2014
just on a side note which may affect euro. eurgbp prev low at 7874 and 61.8 at 7873. below there the cross looks bearish but i am hopeful the test will clash with 12700/86 test in euro.

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:56 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Republicans are widely expected to gain in the mid-terms and may even take the Senate. I have no idea why as they are as hopeless and clueless as the Democrats. This would insure 2 more years of gridlock and solidify Obama as a lame duck. Should not impact markets as Congress is seen as inept no matter who is in charge.


RISK-ON? European Equities Consolidate Recent Losses. China GDP In Line. Housing Data Due
GVI Forex john 13:51 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
S&P +18
DJ +72
DAX +155

US. 10-yr 2.218%

Rising Stox Risk ON and USD positive.

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
Paris ib 13:47 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Correction: not looked into at all. I've just seen headlines flitting by. But have no clue how significant an event this is (albeit assuming S and P will benefit).

eurusd
Livingston nh 13:47 GMT 10/21/2014
Since the beginning of Sept the markets, except commods, have not been guided by facts on the ground but hearsay - Fed "dots" mean something then not, Minutes, ECB implication of purchases or not, plus the distortions of negative rates that are poking through, and finally the Great Unconfirmed Global Growth Slowdown

Nervous markets get whipsawed by the slightest breeze - nothing has really changed in the past two months except prices

U.S. Elections - Market Implications?
Paris ib 13:46 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
I've heard (though looked into at all) that the Democrats are unlikely to do well in the mid term elections. What's the deal with this? Should we care or just ignore the entire event?

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:43 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
We show the 10 day mva at 1.2721

BREAKING NEWS
PAR 13:42 GMT 10/21/2014
Buy the dip in EURUSD . Buy any dip in the stock market .

eurusd
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:42 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
I have found newswires like to make up news by getting quotes from finance and monetary officials and then reporting it as news.

Then you have monetary officials trying to promote their own agendas using newswires.

I would not be surprised if it was a French official tossing out the trial balloon and a German official using the FT to push against it.

eurusd
london red 13:40 GMT 10/21/2014
quite a good bounce off 10 day at 35 but hampered at 47 and no higher intraday high yet. so thats the band to watch. potential inverse shs with 47 neck if we can get down to 40 and up. might decide the 35/47 conundrum.

BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 13:38 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Draghi is like my wife. I love my wife. Therefore I love Draghi.

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
S1 1.2754 breached
S2 1.2701


eurusd
Paris ib 13:37 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
JM - whatever. Why do you think Reuters produced this spurious headline? It's obviously complete rubbish. And what's more it's OLD rubbish. Certain elements of the Anglo-Saxon press have been flashing this headline for YEARS, that is for the past five or so. Why do that in your opinion?

BREAKING NEWS
NY JM 13:37 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
So PAR are you bearish EUR?

BREAKING NEWS
PAR 13:36 GMT 10/21/2014
If Draghi is not buying corporate bonds , than he will buy something else . Sovereign bonds , italian municipalities ,notes issued by Montei Paschi or Spirito Santo etc . But buying he will .

He is like my wife , if she does not find the right shoes ,she buys a purse.

eurusd
NY JM 13:32 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
ib, that assumes a conspiracy theory.

ECB is looking for anything other than outright QE.

eurusd
Paris ib 13:11 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
JM - presuming there was intent behind the headline then the aim was to get the EUR lower. Given the news was clearly false I think it's fair to assume intent.

Where's Ginko?
Paris ib 12:45 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
The Ginko rally is alive and well. Certain elements are still waiting for (and actively working for?) the end of the world (Mr. Soros take a bow). But the odds don't add up. A rally into FOMC and then post FOMC into the November 4 U.S. elections would leave us pretty close to year end and the potential for a 'Christmas Rally'. While people over at ZeroHedge (anonymous and potentially on the Soros payroll?) relentlessly push the stock market bear case it looks like odds on we could get a rally which would leave some people flat footed.

The Big Put


PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
EUR PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

1.2784 post FT headline high.
1.2786 pivot


Its interesting that the reaction to news is often not symmetrical. In other words we have not returned back to where we were before the initial unsourced story about the ECB to buy corporate bonds appeared.

My best guess is that stops are now to building above the pivot
(1.2786).

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:33 GMT 10/21/2014
s&p. a little earlier futs were indicating the index opening at 50% of recent fall. now a little lower although abv the 200 day ma today at 1909. the close will be interesting. if market is to fall further, often the do a bull trap at this average, sucking in longs only to sell off towards the close and finish under the average. but i dont dismiss the us stock bulls and a close abv the 200 day day have us at 1945 and 1975 lightning fast.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:23 GMT 10/21/2014
just covered here. sit aside for now. its a bit quick down to the 50, may bounce ahead of the 47 support.

BREAKING NEWS
london red 12:12 GMT 10/21/2014
got patches of the upside but have used the opportunity to resell. 5 day ema at 65 below here focus on 47 again while topside remains 90(88) thru there required to bring on 12806 test. by that time it might have a bid feel and thru 06 brings on test of high. but for now picture is different.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:03 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
The initial story was always doubtful.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 12:01 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
FT- Corporate bond buying not on the table at ECB. EURUSD rebounds.

eurusd
london red 11:57 GMT 10/21/2014
some time has passed since the recent low at 1.25 so a lot of spec accts are going to be long but i think its a case of bailing first, asking questions later. euroland is threatening an official return to recession and is fighting the onset of deflation and the ecb because of this is the most dovish of central banks, japan excepted. compare that to whats happening in the states. i dont think anyone has called the bottom here, they are just doing their jobs and trading the move higher while it lasts, hence the nerves when anything remotely involving qe or abs is mentioned.

eurusd
NY JM 11:44 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
ib, looking at the price action, the ECB headline caught the market long EURUSD

eurusd
london red 11:40 GMT 10/21/2014
ditto from me. going years back now when times were tough, learnt the most from bc and Athens.

Global-View Forums
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:40 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
We don't get much feedback but I want to give some. I find our forums, even after all these years, still amazing and I find it hard to trade without them.

Take today as an example. I woke up around 5:30 AM, saw the EURUSD had fallen, looked at the Forex Forum and found the catalyst right away. Bulletin board forums are not designed for breaking news and why I find ours the best. Then there are those posting levels and trade ideas that completed the picture and gave me a head start on the day.

Our vision from the start was to create a global trading room, modeled after an old time bank dealing room, and in this regard we have done a good job. We would like to see more people posting rather than sitting in the background (hint!) as everyone has something to contribute.

And as a favor... how about using social media to spread the word about Global-View!!!

eurusd
LJ BK 11:35 GMT 10/21/2014
BC, nice to see you back. So you haven't left the table yet. I hope you're still able to clean it. Looking forward to your contribution here again.

eurusd
Paris ib 11:31 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
bc - it's pretty certain this is merely a headline, probably in aid of EUR short sellers. The U.S. Went for QE boots n all, so far the ECB has been extremely cautious on this issue and I can see no reason why that is likely to change.

eurusd
Riga 11:23 GMT 10/21/2014
Tallin if you didn't catch stop you are good....:-)

eurusd
shanghai bc 11:13 GMT 10/21/2014

Buying corporate bonds of major firms may do more help to the EU economy than buying useless government bonds..Chinese way of central bank helping the real economy..Money goes directly to the major firms..More effective that way..

mkt
shanghai bc 11:07 GMT 10/21/2014

Thanks,AB..very much impressed by the professional standard of the Forum..Much has been improved on Forum while I left the Forum for a few years on public duty..

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex 10:47 GMT 10/21/2014  - My Profile
Yesterday USDJPY high was dead on at R2 =107.39

Today EURISD high was 1 pip below R1 = 1.2839

S1 =1.2754
S2 = 1.2701 (20 day mva = 1.2702)

Detroit
PAR 10:30 GMT 10/21/2014
UN Experts: Detroit Should Restore Water to Poor



DETROIT — Oct 20, 2014, 6:28 PM ET

By JEFF KAROUB Associated Press

United Nations human rights experts described Detroit's mass water shut-offs as "a man-made perfect storm" Monday and called on city officials to restore water to those unable to pay, including those with disabilities or chronic illnesses.

Meanwhile, Detroit's officials said the two lawyers' actions and conclusions were agenda-driven and not based on "facts" about the city's progress in helping residents keep or regain service.

Leilani Farha and Catarina de Albuquerque, who were in town to observe the effect of water service shut-offs, said they affect the poorest and most vulnerable — and particularly discriminate against Detroit's majority black population.


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