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FOREX FORUM
01/08/14 0:00 A CH Holiday con: n/a pre: n/a
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Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 22:56 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
US and European equities fell sharply overnight. The Eurostoxx 50 closed down 1.7%, while the S&P500 is currently down 1.6%, the latter posting its largest one-day fall since April. There was no single and obvious catalyst; geopolitical factors, fear of Fed tightening, Portuguese banking sector concerns, Argentina's default, and profit-taking all probably in the mix.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile


July 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income.
  • Far East: JP, CN PMIs.
  • Europe: EZ, GB- PMIs.
  • North America: US- Employment, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Univ of Michigan, Construction Spending, COT.



Morning
sd sf 21:38 GMT 07/31/2014
EurCad + GbpCad + $Cad

ntg but offers this morning - makes sense as into the upper end of this weeks range.

GBP
offers at 88 89 90 atm

eur
bids @80/81/82 some stops @1.3413

bit mixed tbh - all depends on the NFP - as to whether Yellen wins or the market wins.

EUR Heat Map
Mtl JP 21:25 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile


suggest to forget the euro focus for a bit
it is the dollar that appears bid
against Gold
against crude
against gbp
against the euro
Bottom Line:
usdx up to 81.50


Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 21:14 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Jul 31, 2014 KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine's parliament rejected Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk's resignation on Thursday and finally passed legislation he said was needed to finance an army offensive against a separatist rebellion in the east and avert a national default on its debts. ../.
-
impressive.
1) "they" reject his resignation and the fool sticks around
2) financing an army = averting a national debt default. doubly impressive
3) now the so-called rebels know where the serpent's head is.


EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Forex market from EUR Perspective. EUR mixed after mixed German and EC data. Spot to 20-day average now mostly higher.



Weekly Trading Planner -- Top Items
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile

FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 20:32 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables


Risk On/Off Heat Map
PAR 20:04 GMT 07/31/2014
Portugal ,Ukraine , Argentina ,Chicago PMI , Yellen and Ebola .

Is it safe?
dc CB 19:57 GMT 07/31/2014
*WHITE HOUSE SAYS `NO INDICATION' OF EBOLA RISK TO U.S.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
NY JM 19:41 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Good lesson in fx from stocks if there is a surprise miss on downside in US jobs tomorrow. Just pointing out a risk, not a forecast

Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 19:38 GMT 07/31/2014
s&p not even done last months low yet. perspective.
if carlsberg did sell offs? 1500-1600.

Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:10 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...





Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 19:01 GMT 07/31/2014
earlier on CNBC

SURVIVING THE SELLOFF

Which economic data really matters for your investments, with Patrick Kaser, Brandywine Global, and Brian Lazorishak, Chase Investment Counsel.

LMASOFF

U.S. and German Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report on Friday
GVI Forex Blog 18:51 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income

On Friday, a slew of final PMI reports, month U.S. employment data and the final University of Michigan survey for July are featured. U.S. data on Thursday were mixed, but generally supported the notion of a policy tightening earlier rather than later.

U.S. and German Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report on Friday


Risk On/Off Heat Map
PAR 17:39 GMT 07/31/2014
Do they still know where their physical gold is or did they swap it for a Gold ETF bought on margin ?

Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 17:35 GMT 07/31/2014
PAR,
right now they're very busy smacking Gold, trying to drive money back into Treasuries

Day's Trades
tokyo ginko 16:43 GMT 07/31/2014
i am long usd/jpy and I am still alive

Risk On/Off Heat Map
PAR 16:33 GMT 07/31/2014
Compared to Ukraine the Argentine situation looks like paradise .

Risk On/Off Heat Map
PAR 16:29 GMT 07/31/2014
Yellen on the Phone with PPT . Lets avoid margin calls , we must act .

Risk On/Off Heat Map
Paris ib 16:00 GMT 07/31/2014
Lower stock prices are the only way that the U.S. can push yields lower. In essence the U.S. can not afford an economic recovery (and the higher bond yields - or financing costs - that go with it). Every time we have signs of a real economic recovery bond yields move higher. Higher interest rates put pressure on stocks and yields then fall. The USD is unlikely to benefit from such a scenario, that is: an unaffordable economic recovery. You can get some speculative USD accumulation but you are not going to get massive capital inflow, which is what you need for a sustainable USD rally.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:55 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Equities turning more ugly on increasing Fed tightening fears. Lower stock pices driving bond yields lower.

Impact on USD is unclear.

Why Kiev?
Paris ib 15:53 GMT 07/31/2014
"Washington’s strategy pursues a double goal: on one hand to put Ukraine in the hands of the US-dominated IMF and annex it to NATO, also under US control; on the other hand to use the Ukrainian crisis, which Washington contributed to create, to reinforce US influence over its European allies. To this end, Washington is coming to an agreement with Berlin on a partition of areas of influences."

Kiev and Europe


Gaza and Israel
Paris ib 15:49 GMT 07/31/2014
Does anyone else get the impression that Israel is going to get cut off? The media tide seems to be turning. I personally think the Israelis have been lured into a trap. (Just like when Saddam Hussein was more or less given the green light by the U.S. to invade Kuwait.) What it means for financial markets I'm not sure. Something.... but murky at this point.

Kuwait and Hussein (in Italian)


STOCKS
dc CB 15:46 GMT 07/31/2014
red,
last week when SnP was 1980ish, I wrote that we'd see 2000 before 1950, because Yellen had a rocket in her pocket.

Rocket got shot down by the Iron Dome of 4% GDP print...so no Windows to be Dressed today.

Everything is showing Red today except for the VIX.

Lies and Statistics
Paris ib 15:44 GMT 07/31/2014
Thanks. What was that about??? So I avoid next time. :-)

Lies and Statistics
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:43 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
IB link fixed

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 15:41 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile

Equity markets remain in a mixed risk-off posture following a larger than expected increase in the U.S. Employment Cost Index. There is an increased focus on U.S. wage rates. They could be pivotal in the jobs figures on Friday. EURUSD is trading just below 1.3400.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are steady to higher. Yields on the European periphery are mixed. EZ 10-yr 1.18%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.62%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.56%, 0bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are ending lower . U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



STOCKS
london red 15:37 GMT 07/31/2014
CB, i suppose s&p can stretch to 1900/1916 if it really wants to. could do with a good pullback if youre honest.

it appears people are taking profits across the board on recent fx gains. em has taken a good hiding all day really, but that was to be expected given the fed. aussie and kiwi holding up surprising well.

Lies and Statistics
Paris ib 15:37 GMT 07/31/2014
I have no idea why this link is censored

the censored bit is J A P (without gaps)

Lies and Statistics
Paris ib 15:35 GMT 07/31/2014
Ok I give up here is the link you'll have to cut and paste:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JAP-01-100714.html

Lies and Statistics
Paris ib 15:34 GMT 07/31/2014
At some point the link will work.

Japan


Lies and Statistics
Paris ib 15:29 GMT 07/31/2014
"Despite its peace constitution, Japan boasts one of the largest militaries in the world. It is the eighth largest military spender in the world - ahead of all other Asian countries except China - and it's planning to increase its spending substantially over the next five years."

Better link.

Japan


Lies and Statistics
Paris ib 15:25 GMT 07/31/2014
What I love is this obsession with individual statistics. As if they matter if those statistics don't make capital flows happen. Statistics only count if they move money. Right now IMVHO the only thing that matters is what is happening to current account imbalances (and as a direct correlation to international capital flows). The Japanese are repatriating capital... fact. And global geopolitical risks only mean THAT TREND (towards everyone taking their money home) is likely to continue. What's more Japan is trashing its constitution and looking to reARM. No more free money to the rest of the world. All those countries who traditionally ran large external current account deficits (that is were on the receiving end of large capital inflows) will have to rethink. USD/JPY bulls are having themselves on in the biggest way. Again IMVHO.

Japan ReARMS


STOCKS
dc CB 15:17 GMT 07/31/2014


dc CB 20:38 GMT July 30, 2014
This is what's scaring the market ---(Not another Pic of Gammy)
HY Corp debt has been "financing" all the stock buybacks that have made earnings look so great.

loonie
london red 15:03 GMT 07/31/2014
despite the fall intraday, loonie is still abv upper daily bolli indicating just how overbought the market was. if below 80 then 60 likely and i start to like it there, not far from the 200 day ma at 10839.

GVI Forex Blog 14:53 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
July 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 1, 2014


Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile


July 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income.
  • Far East: JP, CN PMIs.
  • Europe: EZ, GB- PMIs.
  • North America: US- Employment, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Univ of Michigan, Constructon Spending, COT.



NFP
Livingston nh 14:33 GMT 07/31/2014
After Europe close we may get a better idea of the number traders who may be moving towards the exits ahead of the NFP - USD/JPY may be most sensitive to change in Fed hike expectations (103.25 b4 NFP)

July is a low month for the Plug factor (maybe 45K) and there is a good chance that the participation rate may push up the number of unemployed as job seekers enter hence an uptick in the Unemployment rate // BUT 220K and 5.9%

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
+88 vs. +90 exp vs. +90 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

cable
london red 13:58 GMT 07/31/2014
eurgbp keeps cable under pressure with 83 fib currently capping topside. if broken likely to see a move to 6910. eurgbp res at 7955/60. on the downside 100 day supports

July 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
london red 13:48 GMT 07/31/2014
underlying not as bad as headline. should be a one off according to text.
would be nice to get involved at 10260 9055/60 yen swissy

July 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
yes it was a big miss as rumored

July 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
52.6 vs. 63.0 exp. vs. 62.6 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Chicago PMI
GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Chatter the number is a miss. subscribers get it early.

EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Market setting up for a strong payroll tomorrow??

10-yr 2.589% last.

Equities falling on pressure from yields... presumably USD positive, but leaves the markets at risk for a disappointment ?

Risk On/Off Heat Map
london red 13:20 GMT 07/31/2014
eci suggests tomorrows ahe print risks 0.3% or certainly people will be looking for it higher than the 0.2 exp.
euro test of low done with good tail on hourly candle. thats the marker for further losses and while its not done, risk is to drift higher as crosses support.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Plovdiv Gotin 13:11 GMT 07/31/2014
It seems to me 1.3144(tgt from 1.3994 not be enough for sellers)There are signs for lower levels.

Ukraine
Paris ib 13:06 GMT 07/31/2014
"A source in the Ukrainian government confirmed that the transfer of the gold reserves of Ukraine to the United States was ordered by the acting PM Arseny Yatsenyuk." March 7

Good old Beck



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