GVI Forex Blog 20:36 GMT May 22, 2013
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Event risk today: Locally there are expectation surveys from Australia for inflation and unemployment – minor for markets. More importantly there’s China PMI (HSBC version) this afternoon, while tonight there’s a batch of US data and Fedspeak. US data will assume even more importance for markets in the wake of Bernanke’s remark last night.
Forex - Qestpac Morning Report
Cambridge Joe 20:24 GMT May 22, 2013
The outlook thru Asia:
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IMO the outlook thru Asia is for softer USD.
As I say, just IMO. GL
GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:58 GMT May 22, 2013
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United States:
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US 10-yr ending at 2.03% +10bps. Equities are sharply lower.
Syd 19:19 GMT May 22, 2013
WSJ Blog: Parsing Fed Minutes: Debating When to Pull Back:
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Below are key passages in the minutes and how to read them:
1) "A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed will debate at its June 18-19 meeting whether to reduce its $85-billion per month bond-buying program, but officials don't appear near a consensus on the matter. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke suggested in testimony to Congress earlier in the day that he wanted to avoid moving prematurely toward pulling back.
2) "Several participants pointed to the improvement in interest-sensitive sectors, such as consumer durables and housing, over the recent period as evidence that the purchases were having positive results for the economy."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed talks about the costs and benefits of its policies. So far, they think the bond buying program is still helping the economy.
3) "Economic data releases over the intermeeting period were mixed, raising some concern that the recovery might be slowing after a solid start earlier this year, thereby repeating the pattern observed in recent years. Various views on this prospect were offered, from those participants who put more emphasis on the underlying momentum of the economy, noting the strengthening in private domestic final demand, to those who stressed the growing fiscal restraint or the other headwinds still facing the economy."
WHAT IT MEANS: Fed officials are hesitant about their next step on monetary policy in part because they're especially uncertain about how the economy unfolds in the next few months, in the face of tighter fiscal policies.
4) "Both headline and core PCE inflation in the first quarter came in below the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent, but these recent lower readings appeared to be due, in part, to temporary factors; other measures of inflation as well as inflation expectations had remained more stable. Accordingly, participants generally continued to expect that inflation would move closer to the 2 percent objective over the medium run."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed's favored inflation measures have dropped well below its 2% target, but officials aren't deeply concerned about it yet.
5) "Participants began a review of the exit strategy principles that were published in the minutes of the Committee's June 2011 meeting ... The broad principles adopted almost two years ago appeared generally still valid, but developments since then--including the change in the size and composition of (System Open Market Account) asset holdings-- suggested a need for greater flexibility regarding the details of implementing policy normalization, particularly because those details would appropriately depend at least in part upon future economic and financial developments."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed is reviewing a plan to sell its mortgage backed securities some day in the future. It might not do so, but it hasn't reached a decision yet and isn't sure when it will detail the new plan. The staff will study it further.
6) "Several participants raised the possibility that the federal funds rate might not, in the future, be the best indicator of the general level of short-term interest rates, and supported further staff study of potential alternative approaches to implementing monetary policy in the longer term and of possible new tools to improve control over short-term interest rates."
WHAT IT MEANS: In normal times the Fed moves the federal funds rate -- a rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans -- to manage the broader spectrum of rates in the financial system. But because it has pumped so much money into the financial system, its control over this rate might have diminished. Fed officials have become more focused on another rate that they do control directly -- a rate it pays banks that keep reserves on deposit with the central bank -- as one of its main policy levers in the future. Now officials appear to be gearing up to study these relationships more carefully.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/
dc CB 19:16 GMT May 22, 2013
WSJ Blog: Fed Minutes Pull Plug on Stock Rally:
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What is 410 words and is released precisely 180 seconds after the FOMC's minutes? Why Jon Hilsenrath's FOMC minute-parsing piece of course. Which we can only assume means Jon was on the "preapproved" list for early distribution and pre-analysis, because not even we can analyze and type that fast. We are confident he did not breach the embargo. Because that would not look good for the Fed already being investigated by the Inspector General for last month's humilating breach.
So what did Hilsy have to say this time? This:...............................................
Trust Hilsenrath to miss the most important part of the minutes, which was this - the first "on the FOMC record" admission by some that the Fed is officially blowing a bubble:
180 Seconds After The FOMC Release, Hilsenrath Parses Fed Minutes
london red 18:43 GMT May 22, 2013
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very quickly stopped out. at these levels tail on daily candle.
london red 18:33 GMT May 22, 2013
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have used pullback in eurjpy to get involved at current levels, stop below asian low. v tight, so luck required! looking for retest of high. not without risk as eurusd has done a lower low but counting on usdjpy to drag it higher from 103
Israel Dil 18:33 GMT May 22, 2013
WFAK pulled his finger off the dam:
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jokes over ... trade seriously and laugh :-)
In case of no new lower daily lows then wild bounce is on cards, relating this sentence to ALL trading instruments :-)
Syd 18:26 GMT May 22, 2013
WSJ Blog: Fed Minutes Pull Plug on Stock Rally:
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Quite a comedown for U.S. stocks at this point in the session, as major averages slide into negative territory after earlier spiking higher upon release of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's prepared testimony.
Dow industrials were up almost 155 points at their high, now down 35. Tech-heavy Nasdaq Comp falls 31 points and S&P 500 sheds 9 points.
FOMC minutes highlight deeper debate over asset purchases, spooking some of the fast money that's afraid of the central bank tapering its bond-buying program.
Materials, energy, utilities and tech lead sector decliners; only health-care sector advancing now. U.S. dollar rallies; Treasurys pare price declines.
Bernanke: Bond Buying Could Slow
PAR 18:21 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke:
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Hearing Obama calling an emergency meeting for all his economic advisers as stocks are lower intraday . PPT on Red Alert . Code RED . Lol.
Israel Dil 18:15 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke:
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Don't worry PAR, the white house already collected WFAK with air force 1 to handle the crisis situation.
Print and if stocks decline then print more :-)
PAR 18:15 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke:
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Cramer screaming FED has to do something . Stock could close lower .
PAR 18:13 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke:
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Stocks are lower . Bernanke calling for an emergency Fed Meeting .
Israel Dil 18:10 GMT May 22, 2013
xxx/JPY:
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Israel Dil 19:39 GMT April 11, 2013 xxx/JPY: Reply Before 20th of this month the JPY will trade roughly 3% stronger than the JPY current level.
As long 134 stays untouched with eur/jpy the risk remains for stronger JPY
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Believe me or not, i could not to login with mobile phone earlier today to say that everything above 133.50 is a GIFT for now.
PAR 18:09 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke:
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Under Bernanke the FED minutes are becoming "Jersey Shore " for financial industry .
Israel Dil 17:58 GMT May 22, 2013
US oil:
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jay@global view.com
email me to arrange you a broker!!!
not censored ... LOL
Israel Dil 17:47 GMT May 22, 2013
US oil:
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censored
london red 17:46 GMT May 22, 2013
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spanish talk of money raising for banks has forced eurgbp lower. key support at 200 week ma (8513) and 100 day (8506), below there can retrace whole move from 8440. would say at risk if euro makes lower low after minutes. in that case large tail on daily candle. descending triangle on weekly chart with 8400 support becomes focus again if plays out that way.
Israel Dil 17:42 GMT May 22, 2013
US oil:
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Sell Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:
Time Will tell if we go sub 70$ but the timing of this trade was kind of OK for short term traders :-)
PAR 17:23 GMT May 22, 2013
Dealing:
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Higher USDJPY > Higher Nikkei > Higher European Stock Markets > Approval of dealing Ben policies ?
PAR 17:15 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke-Escobar-Noriega:
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Superdealer Bernanke releasing exactly the right kind of stimulus to the market to keep the addicted happy .
But all addictions end in tears
Richland QC Mailman 16:41 GMT May 22, 2013
eurusd:
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Buying euros at this level (above 1.2850) has good R/R. We are in too. :)
Tallinn viies 16:37 GMT May 22, 2013
eurusd:
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1,2848 bought euros. stop 1,2793.
target 1,3000
GVI Forex Blog 16:31 GMT May 22, 2013
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May 22, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 23. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Trade. CN- HSBC flash PMI. EZ- Draghi Speech, flash PMIs, Consumer Confidence. GB- GDP, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Markit PMI, New Homes Sales
GVI Forex Data Outlook for 23 May 2013
GVI Forex Inner Circle 16:29 GMT May 22, 2013
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Calendar :
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May 22, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 23.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Trade. CN- HSBC flash PMI. EZ- Draghi Speech, flash PMIs, Consumer Confidence. GB-
GDP, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Markit PMI, New Homes Sales
- Far East: JP- Trade.CN- HSBC flash PMI
- Europe: EZ- Draghi Speech, flash PMIs (including (DE and FR), Consumer Confidence. GB- GDP.
- North America: US- Weeklly Jobs, flash Markit PMI, New Homes Sales, Natural Gas.
Direct links to primary data sources
Cambridge Joe 15:56 GMT May 22, 2013
Cable:
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Cable buying about 1 hour out from here and more energetically from around 02:00 GMT.
IMO. GL
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