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FOREX FORUM
22/08/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y con: n/a pre: 1.80%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm con: 0.20% pre: 0.10%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy con: 2.20% pre: 2.40%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales con: 0.40% pre: 0.70%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos con: n/a pre: 0.10%
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Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile


August 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen, EZ- Draghi
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi at Jackson Hole
  • North America: CA= CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen at Jackson Hole, COT Report



Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 21:40 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 21:19 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
nh 18:59 GMT August 11, 2014
The geo-political concerns have not (and cannot) be resolved -- these are political and they will resurface // only a positive war outcome can settle a political issue - otherwise it festers to reappear at a later date //
-
today from Hagel: ISIS Is 'Beyond Anything' The U.S. Has Seen

and

according to Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday afternoon that it would not be possible to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria without attacking its fighters in Syria.
-
Billion dollar aircraft carriers, billion dollar nuclear subs, f-18s, hellfires, b-52s, B-1s, space and cyber spy network, nearly $500 billion yearly budget...
what are they missing ?

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
nw kw 21:14 GMT 08/21/2014
cad bonds indicating strong print eur/cat intresting

Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole
dc CB 21:03 GMT 08/21/2014


Gold


The Yellen(FED Speaker) Trade....1273.4 low today. will it be Smacked again hard overnight?????

Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole
dc CB 20:21 GMT 08/21/2014
“We’re going into the Labor Day with the lowest gasoline prices for most motorists since 2010 for the holiday,” Michael Green, a Washington-based AAA spokesman, said by phone yesterday. “This really helps make travel more affordable and leave travelers with more money to spend on other things while on their trips.”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

(lowest gasoline prices Since THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS...TinHat Co-inkydink Patrol)

Labor Day Weekend to See Most U.S. Drivers in Six Years


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
dc CB 20:11 GMT 08/21/2014
chart of the day

SnP


" Trade Ideas "
Lahore FM 19:57 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Buy usdx
Entry: Now Target: Three month exit Stop: To your tolerance

Just when some desperate usd bears are groping about thinking this is thetail end of usd bullrun a freaky spike further pushing usd higher makes most sense.several charts that reval upcoming usd strength or weakness point to more usd strength for another stretch of several weeks.

Crude and gold harbingers.usdchf and usdcad perhaps next two.

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole- dovish comments???
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole- dovish

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
nw kw 19:41 GMT 08/21/2014
U.S. oil prices rose slightly Thursday on tight supply and signs of an improving economy.



Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:17 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Mtl JP 19:16 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
SnP to 1,993
DJIA to 17,066
all economic signs are fantastic
there is no yellen put

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
dc CB 19:01 GMT 08/21/2014
Add to that, the rocket scientists behind Dodd-Frank, including former genius Paul Volcker, have stripped all the liquidity from the markets. Wait for the next flash crash!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

10AM Friday... probably minus a milli second or two,
will belong to the Borg Collective...We will take-out all your stops...and assimilate your funds

Resistance is Futile...


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:53 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
nh I have no other explanation for why shares are up and bond yields are falling. I'm just saying I feel the markets have a lot of room for disappointment tomorrow.

Add to that, the rocket scientists behind Dodd-Frank, including former genius Paul Volcker, have stripped all the liquidity from the markets. Wait for the next flash crash!

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Livingston nh 18:45 GMT 08/21/2014
John - How can Yellen move the needle unless she acknowledges labor improvement? Her hang-ups are slack and wage growth which is a function of her NAIRU belief - interest rates are secondary, almost derivative, to the NAIRU crew (and from this level Fed can only move rates one way)

She is a BIG fan of "IF" as a model -- so more data is always desirable

What could she say in the context of the labor situation??

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Livingston nh 18:45 GMT 08/21/2014
John - How can Yellen move the needle unless she acknowledges labor improvement? Her hang-ups are slack and wage growth which is a function of her NAIRU belief - interest rates are secondary, almost derivative, to the NAIRU crew (and from this level Fed can only move rates one way)

She is a BIG fan of "IF" as a model -- so more data is always desirable

What could she say in the context of the labor situation??

Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole
dc CB 18:39 GMT 08/21/2014
the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove.

So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".

From Bloomberg:

Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
dc CB 18:34 GMT 08/21/2014
dc CB 01:28 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes:
a little over 36 hours before Gammy's Speak-O-Rama is released
How low will it go? sub 1240?

The Yellen(FED Speaker) Trade....1273.4 low today. Smacked again hard overnight?????


U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker
GVI Forex Blog 18:20 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS:, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Fed's Yellen, EZ- ECB's Draghi

Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium. U.S. data on Friday were broadly better than expected. Weekly Jobless Claims fell slightly back below the 300K line. The Markit Mfg PMI surged higher, Existing Homes sales gained strongly, while Leading Indicators and Philly Fed Index both outperformed expectations.

U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:09 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
10=yr 2.403% -3bp

the market has fully discounted a dovish Yellen. The risk is that she disappoints!

August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
dc CB 17:33 GMT 08/21/2014
O O OCare ...special questions on the PhillyFed

AffordableCare Questions


Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 16:12 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
picture worth millions of words of what ails the money printers:
lack of usage of their so-called "stimulus"
curtesy: st louis fed

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Fundamentals for Trading
GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

This article is based around a regular series of reports I publish most business days on the public forex forum at global-view.com. This report is based on what appears to be a simple graph (see below) which contains a surprising amount of information.


The heart of the chart is two red interest rate lines. The dotted red line is the U.S. Fed Funds rate which is the administered overnight interest rate targeted by the Federal Reserve. This rate moves up and down in response to Fed actions to try to manage the economy.

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Fundamentals for Trading


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:36 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
EUR/USD hit resistance around 1.3245 overnight and has moved up toward 1.3290 through the US session. Gold fell to two-month lows below $1,280 this morning, most likely thanks to expectations the Fed could hike interest rates sooner than expected. Note that the yield on the 10-year UST has not eased up much, with buying though the US session driving it momentarily below 2.42%.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole; US PMI and Housing Data Outperform


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 15:15 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a RISK-ON mild posture late in Europe on Thursday. Flash PMI data in the Fare East and Europe were been mixed to slightly weaker than forecast. U.S. headline data were broadly stronger than forecast. EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned lower from earlier ahead of Draghi on Friday. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% 0bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are down.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.41%  -1bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, -1bp. A major focus is an expected  dovish Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is 2.40%. I'm not  sure Yellen will be as dovish  as hoped for.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 15:13 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
nh that sounds like Janet thinks it is better for Americans (in general) to live in poverty

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Livingston nh 15:01 GMT 08/21/2014
Jay - Yellen will be more dovish because of the recent strength of the USD - this is one of her favorite inflation expectation bromides // I doubt she will pull a Carney but she will likely use the pulpit to push back against the markets' reaction to yesterday's Minutes

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Livingston nh 15:01 GMT 08/21/2014
Jay - Yellen will be more dovish because of the recent strength of the USD - this is one of her favorite inflation expectation bromides // I doubt she will pull a Carney but she will likely use the pulpit to push back against the markets' reaction to yesterday's Minutes

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:50 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
My daily forex video posted earlier on GVIForex:


Video Market Update

Will defense set in ahead of Yellen's speech?

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
+88 vs.+ 82 exp vs. +78 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
GVI Forex 14:29 GMT 08/21/2014
from Dow Jones
"...Within the Philadelphia Fed survey, the subindexes generally were expansionary but more subdued this month. The new orders index fell to 14.7 after it almost doubled to 34.2 from 16.8 in July. The shipments index dropped to 16.5 from 34.2. The employees index fell to 9.1 from 12.2 last month. The workweek index edged up to 13.3 from 12.5. The prices-received index fell sharply to 4.2 from 16.8 last month. Philadelphia manufacturers are very upbeat about the next six months..."

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 14:27 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
red - thanks for that. I had not looked into the Philly Fed data yet.

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
london red 14:19 GMT 08/21/2014
fwiw philly fed underlying pretty poor across the board, all down sharply on july, inventories higher. its just one piece of data, but yellen expected to play same tune as usual tomorrow, so as good a reason to take profits as any.

GVI Forex Blog 14:18 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
August 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 22, 2014


Calendar -- Daily Forex News
GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile


August 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi at Jackson Hole
  • North America: CA= CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen at Jackson Hole, COT Report



Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 14:13 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.418% -1bp

bond traders are making a pretty strong bet on a dovish Yellen tomorrow. I think they might be leaning against the wind.

August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Philly Fed up in line with other U.S. data.

August 2014 Consumer Confidence prelim
GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
More bad news for the EZ.

July 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Recovery in housing market continues. Pending Homes sales had sent an incorrect signal for July data.



U.S. July 2014 Leading Indicators
GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
+0.90% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.30% (r +0.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

August 2014 Consumer Confidence prelim
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile




ALERT
-10.1 vs. -9.1 vs. -8.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

July 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile




ALERT
5.1500 vs. 5.000 exp. vs. 5.040 (r 5.03)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile



NEWS ALERT
+28.0 vs. +20.0 exp. vs. +23.0 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

U.S. August 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI much stronger than forecast.



U.S. August 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
U.S. August 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI




ALERT
58.0 vs. 55.7 exp. vs. 55.8 prelim


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
NY JM 13:39 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Treasury yields backing off (10-year last at 2.42%) and fx following in mindless day awaiting Yellen tomorrow.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Decent weekly jobless report. FWIW this is the week in which the August employment report is calculated

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Weekly Jobless claims data continues at reduced levels.




Click on chart for ten-year history


U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
298K vs. 300K exp. vs. 311K (r 312 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.500 vs. 2.518 exp. vs. 2.544 (r 2.549 ) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


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