Hong Kong AceTrader 01:41 GMT May 24, 2013
May 24 : Yen rallies after weak Chinese data and plunge in the Nikkei boost risk aversion:
Reply
Market Review - 23/05/2013 22:58GMT
Yen rallies after weak Chinese data and plunge in the Nikkei boost risk aversion
The Japanese yen rallied after reaching a fresh 4-1/2 year low yesterday after weaker-than-expected Chinese data and selloff in Japanese stocks boosted risk aversion. The yen was also supported due to the jump in 10-year Japanese government bond yields, which rose to 1%, the highest in a year.
China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 in May from 50.4 previously.
Despite a brief rebound to session high at 103.57 in early Asian morning, price began intra-day decline after data showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 7 months. A selloff in Asian equities (Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock gauge tumbled by 7.3%) increased safe haven demand and price continued to ratchet lower, eventually falling to a low at 100.83. However, the greenback pared intra-day losses and rebounded in New York, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, pricre later edged higher to 102.06 near New York close.
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims came in at 340K, better than the expectation of 345K, prior reading was revised to 363K.
Although the single currency rebounded to 1.2856 in Asian morning, price met renewed selling there and retreated to session low at 1.2821 at European open. However, euro pared intra-day losses and rose to 1.2904 in European morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected Germany and EU manufacturing PMI. Despite a brief pullback to 1.2876, price resumed intra-day ascent and climbed to a high at 1.2957 in New York morning before stabilising.
German manufacturing PMI in May came in at 49.0, better than expectation of 48.5. Euro zone manufacturing PMI in May came in at 47.8, stronger than the forecast of 47.0.
The British pound also rebounded in Asian morning to 1.5053 before briefly retreating to 1.5022 at European open. Cable found renewed buying there and rose to 1.5094 in European morning after government report confirmed the U.K. economy returned to growth in the first quarter. Despite a brief pullback to 1.5054 in New York morning, price climbed to an intra-day high at 1.5129 in New York morning.
U.K GDP 2nd release in Q1 is reported 0.3% Q/Q n 0.6% y/y, same as expectation.
In other news, Japan EconMin Akira Amari said 'Japan's economy is on way to recovery, no need to be upset about sharp fall in stocks; closely watching market movements; natural for yen to gain in reaction to sharp falls in stocks' ECB's Nowothy said 'euro zone growth in 2013 could be worse than EU originally forecast; not time yet to unwind massive intervention by central banks to support economies.'
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand import, export, trade balance, Germany GDP, export, import, Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo business climate, current assessment, France business climate, Italy consumer confidence, UK mortgage approvals, U.S. durable goods, ex. transport and ex. defense.
Melbourne Qindex 01:18 GMT May 24, 2013
- My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
:
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The market is positive when it is able to close above the barrier at 1.2900 // 1.2904 in the last New York session. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.2996 // 1.2999. The daily cycle normal limits are positioning at 1.30016 - 1.31562 - 1.30645.
Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Syd 01:16 GMT May 24, 2013
Resources sector threatened by US shale gas: McKibbon:
Reply
Former Reserve Bank of Australia board member and economist Warwick McKibbin believes Australia's resources sector will come under even greater pressure as shale gas in the United States continues to emerge as a new global energy source, The Australian Financial Review reports.
According to the newspaper, Mr McKibbin said successive governments had squandered the benefits of the mining boom by spending too much.
He added the expansion of shale gas was likely to reduce gas prices around the world from 2016.
"From Australia’s point of view this shock in the US reduces Australia’s terms of trade by about eight per cent over the next couple of years," professor McKibbin told the AFR.
"That’s a fairly big negative shock and will weigh quite heavily on the Australian dollar."
"That’s a fairly big negative shock and will weigh quite heavily on the Australian dollar."
GVI Forex Inner Circle 21:30 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Calendar:
Reply
May 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 24.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, US-Durable Goods
GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:52 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light:
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- Durable Goods
- As we predicted early Thursday
markets spent the session digesting the short-term implications of the
testimony
by Chairman
Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION
that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A
policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will
be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on
stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh
on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
- It is a fear of the "shock
effect" on the market that has Bernanke trying to desensitize the
markets to this change in policy well
before it hits. The transition back to a more "normal" policy
will be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and
mostly jobs. In terms of trading, expect USD values to be heavily
influenced by stock and bond markets and for stock and bond markets to
be highly sensitive to economic data reports.
- The flash China (HSBC) PMI data
fell
below the key 50 expansion/contraction line, while German and French
data were a touch stronger. The EZ flash PMI was better than expected
but sill below the 50 expansion line..
- U.S. key Weekly Jobless
claims returned to back below 350K in the month. The Markit flash PMI
fell modestly, while New Home Sales were strong.
- The critical German IFO Survey
is due on Friday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3002
|
JGB
0.88% 0bp
|
Asia:Sharply
Weaker
|
USDJPY
100.44
|
Bund
1.44% +2bp
|
Europe
Sharply Weaker
|
EURJPY
130.58
|
U.S.2.02%
-1bp
|
U.S.:Mixed
|
GVI Forex Blog 20:51 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- Durable Goods
As we predicted early Thursday markets spent the session digesting the short-term implications of the testimony by Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light
Amman wfakhoury 20:19 GMT May 23, 2013
AUDUSD .9770:
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 10:51 GMT May 23, 2013
AUDUSD .9770: Reply
0.9770 confirmed ..will be reached
-------------------
Third target 0.9770 reached.
JERUSALEM KB 18:41 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Trading the sup & ress. levels:
Reply
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold form strong support ress. , strong sell signal formed below 1418 ress. followed by double bottom on 1hr chart which may put gold in a side way trading between both levels for a short term.
i took 45 trades in 2 trading weeks , 25short & 20 longs result with 33 win and 12loss , 40 scalp(50 to 60 pips) and 5 ends with 250pips+ for each(i shared those five on GV).
london red 17:25 GMT May 23, 2013
+:
Reply
eurchf looks to be running out of steam and rolling over intraday. did a nice bounce from lows but recent high was a fibo off big multi year move. long wick on top dailz candle and as long as stays below 1.26, a move to 123-122 possible technically, but first priority to take 10 day ma and then intraday low out.
Hillegom Purk 16:54 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Aud/usd:
Reply
Good day. Today a good day for Ozmond. I rather see it go back to 92 minus for 500 pips up.
Stay tuned...
Cambridge Joe 16:51 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
Reply
Thanks red, that would appear to bear out the way it looks !
london red 16:49 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
Reply
Joe, they wont print for various reasons, but since the greece and cyprus incidents have been digested, draghi hasnt missed a chance to talk the euro lower.
Mtl JP 16:44 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
buy euro
:
Reply
Joe I would suggest that market may reward reports of attention to certain issues / progress in them, such as the upcoming yak by Weidmann whose topic is on Crisis and Risk for European Integration. (in about 45 minutes)
Cambridge Joe 16:39 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
Reply
JP charts appear to suggest that Drahgi has a laxative effect on e/$ . :-)
london red 16:38 GMT May 23, 2013
+:
Reply
still 25 mins to go but possible hourly reversal on sp500, stopped at 100 hour ma and just short of 38.2% retracement of yesterdays fall from high/low. if we get a large wick on hour candle, this nervous market might run back to lows.
Mtl JP 16:36 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
buy euro
:
Reply
current euro overhead block 50 day 1.2983
and ... 20 day 1.3006 above that
Mtl JP 16:33 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
buy euro
:
Reply
heads up:
Draghi yaks in London in 3 hrs
on Future of Europe
london red 16:33 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level:
Reply
high often given as highest price paid ie the offer side, so unless your kiwi spread is a point or less, you won't have got filled unfortunately.
london red 16:28 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
Reply
today market is discounting european yields and potential italy referendum headache. ifo tomorrow morning may refocus attention on europe.
manila 16:25 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
euro should reach 1.3020 by month end
london red 16:25 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level:
Reply
usdcad coming up to hourly 100 ma just under 1.03, has supported trend since test of parity just over a week ago. if cracked can take us to 10260. market is overbought on the dailies but that has never stopped a trending market, so can go either way.
HK Kevin 16:15 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level:
Reply
NZD sell order at 0.8170. I see high at NetDania is 0.8171, but my broker said it was not filled.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:40 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Fixed Income:
Reply
Major bond market prices mixed. Peripheral prices are lower.
Amman wfakhoury 15:34 GMT May 23, 2013
GBPUSD 1.5099:
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 10:49 GMT May 23, 2013
GBPUSD 1.5099: Reply
1.5099 confirmed ..will be reached
-------------
second target 15099 reached
GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:11 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Calendar :
Reply
May 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 24.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, US-Durable Goods.
ed kw 14:34 GMT May 23, 2013
Sell JPY
:
Reply
The question remains: When Will Hedge Funds and FX Traders Close their Short Yen Positions? We think with the arrival of stronger Japanese data, they will. We judge that Japan might be the G7 country with the strongest growth in 2013.On the other side inflation will be clearly lower than 2%. Therefore it is time to short USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.
Read more at: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/when-hedge-funds-close-their-short-yen/ - SNB & CHF
http://snbchf.com/2013/03/when-hedge-funds-close-their-short-yen/
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:14 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
United States:
Reply
HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
Natural Gas: 4.1790
WTI: 92.28
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:08 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
United States:
Reply
New Homes Sales, Starts and Permits. New Homes Sales just released and stronger than forecast.
RSS News Feed
many more chart points
