ed kw 15:53 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence :
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aud/yen 9764 next chop zone 97.50 to 95.00
GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:40 GMT May 24, 2013
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Fixed Income:
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Prices in prime fixed income markets mostly higher late in Europe. Prices lower in periphery.
ed kw 15:30 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence :
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chf/jpy under 105 can start yen free fall
ed kw 15:26 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence :
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gold and s/p are to quiet so pik on yen day
ed kw 15:20 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence :
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gbp/usd is getting the floes //e/chf busted /u/chf to //flight to safety for weekend nikkei looks busted
ed kw 15:14 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence :
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We still could see a little more selling of the US Dollar in the sessions ahead, but these declines will continue to be very well supported. Look no further than AUD/USD and NZD/USD to understand that there has been a major change in antipodean sentiment. Aussie and Kiwi used to sell off against the US Dollar and rally back even harder, and now we are seeing the materialization of a contrasting dynamic.
divergence to this post
london red 15:10 GMT May 24, 2013
USD/JPY:
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derivatives market suggests a bounce for aussie and with usdjpy at lows for week, early next week audjpy could snap back so would watch out if selling here. longer term i agree there is a case for short aud vs a host of currencies. futures positioning later will give us a further indication.
ed kw 15:04 GMT May 24, 2013
USD/JPY:
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yen pairs are suitable shorts aud/yen under pressure
london red 14:59 GMT May 24, 2013
USD/JPY:
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close below last weeks low would be bearish, but think 102,30/60 would be a good level to sell into as its sure to trade some of this weeks range.
SaR KaL 14:46 GMT May 24, 2013
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KaL's Trend and Level:
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IMO GBPJPY wants 215 by Jan 2014
eurcad wants 1.25
just watch it over the this week and next
will slowly turn
USDJPY Getting 147 tgt
HK Kevin 14:26 GMT May 24, 2013
USD/JPY:
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Look like sharks is around to clean up USD/JPY long. Cancel my short order at 102.60.
ed kw 12:38 GMT May 24, 2013
United States:
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u/y i did hear that exporters hedged at 98
ed kw 12:34 GMT May 24, 2013
United States:
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bloom its not good news mostly aircraft orders ,some gov,poss drop GDP a bit
london red 12:34 GMT May 24, 2013
United States:
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interesting to see, initially at least, stocks treating good news as bad. dollar popped higher but not yet following thru on yen
GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:33 GMT May 24, 2013
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United States:
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Durable Goods better than expected. This series tends to be volatile because it includes a number of big ticket items.
london red 12:18 GMT May 24, 2013
-:
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watch yen 101,25. last weeks low. with it being end of week, weak longs may just throw in the towel. if so target around 100. does look sticky and risk has taken a hit this week, but risk reward better at high levels if seen, as still packs the biggest punch.
eurchf making some headway to downside, but need to make a lower low. if does hourly reversal here, think shorts covered and try again higher up.
Mtl JP 12:01 GMT May 24, 2013
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Fixed Income:
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when the JGB cost the Japan treasury approx 0.57%, the Economist had a piece claiming that "At over {Yen}1,000 trillion, the sheer size of the debt weighs ever more heavily. The cost of servicing it eats up over half of tax revenues".
beijing kaprikon 11:05 GMT May 24, 2013
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EUR/USD at critical Resistance @ 1.30
:
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EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
This is my view on the EURUSD Daily chart:
Following the better than expected IFO data the EURUSD surged to an intraday High 1.2992, just shy of Wednesday’s Ben Bernanke induced whipsaw High 1.2997. While that sparked a lot of EUR buying against the USD and on the other EUR crosses the overall USD strength is still present as the GBPUSD and AUD USD lagged that counter trend move.
Technically the EURUSD is running into a very solid layer of Resistance: the 50-Day MVA is right at 1.2980 and above it is the 20-Day MVA at 1.30 which would be a tough level to break. The move up would be only confirmed by a close above 1.3040-50 which a more important level based on the previous chart points.
While my view is biased towards a down trend continuation there is a counter argument based on the turning Momentum represented by the buy signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator and the fact that the recent Low around 1.28 is actually higher than the previous Lows around 1.2750 made in the start of March.
Constellation1976 - EUR/USD at critical Resistance
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:54 GMT May 24, 2013
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German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light:
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: US- Durable Goods
- The critical German IFO Survey
came in stronger than predicted for May and has given the EURUSD a
lift. It might be that the data are flattening (Chart on Forex forum).
- There is no reason why
markets Friday should not spend a pre-holiday session continuing to
digest the short-term implications of the testimony
by Chairman
Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION
that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A
policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will
be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on
stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh
on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
- It is a fear of the "shock
effect" on the market that has Bernanke trying to desensitize the
markets to this change in policy well
before it hits. The transition back to a more "normal" policy
will be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and
mostly jobs. In terms of trading, expect USD values to be heavily
influenced by stock and bond markets and for stock and bond markets to
be highly sensitive to economic data reports.
- U.S. Durable Goods orders for
April today are seen better vs. March. This tends to be a
volatile data survey.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3002
|
JGB
0.83% -2bp
|
Asia
Close Mixed
|
USDJPY
100.44
|
Bund
1.46% +2bp
|
Europe
Currently Higher
|
EURJPY
130.58
|
U.S.2.01%
-1bp
|
U.S
Pre-Open.:Mixed
|
london red 08:11 GMT May 24, 2013
Germany:
Reply
think 1.06 longer term is possible on cad while above 10260. but if struggles at 10370/80 today then might be some profit taking on it back to 100 hour and trendline which are just about together c. 1.03
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:05 GMT May 24, 2013
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Germany:
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German May Ifo data better than expected. Data flattening out?. EURUSD higher.
london red 08:04 GMT May 24, 2013
Germany:
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may expectations puts a slight dampner on otherwise better than expected print, but should keep the euro bid until the afternoon session
tokyo ginko 08:03 GMT May 24, 2013
Germany:
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for those who are not sure about eur/usd
do usd/cad for target 1.0470/80
manila tom 08:01 GMT May 24, 2013
Germany:
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Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
good ifo, euro should bias upwards today, buy dips
tokyo ginko 08:01 GMT May 24, 2013
-:
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short eur/usd 1.2955 for target below 1.28..
GL GT all!
london red 07:57 GMT May 24, 2013
-:
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german ifo soon, euro near term supp at 10 day ma at todays low. if number doesnt disappoint then pair looks like its going to make further headway towards 1.30. risk isnt market isnt that short so no real stops to take while below 200 day ma
GVI Forex Inner Circle 07:51 GMT May 24, 2013
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Fixed Income:
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income market mostly higher. Peripherals steady.
Syd 07:46 GMT May 24, 2013
Source TradeTheNews.com:
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(UK) BOE's Fisher: BoE must continue to support the economy; another rate cut would probably not boost demand- Higher bank capital should not restrict lending. - Growth in productivity should help control inflation. - Fiscal tightening will continue to weigh on output - Negative rates would not necessarily do much to boost growth at the moment, might even be perverse - Source TradeTheNews.com
Israel Dil 06:27 GMT May 24, 2013
GOLD :
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buy gold the coming two weeks and take three months long holiday. Can't see gold going sub 1200$ the coming three months but well seeing gold as rising above 1700$ this summer.
bye :-)
Israel Dil 06:23 GMT May 24, 2013
sell everything:
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all financial instruments will top early next week to take the sort of an amazing dive that happens once in long time.
loads of day trading blood is about to appear soon, very soon.
ed kw 05:57 GMT May 24, 2013
every traders failure :
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ETFs were slammed from Nikkei carry trade selloff but BN reports that big funds were flat so mom & pop whent to the cleaners agan
Syd 05:39 GMT May 24, 2013
- Source TradeTheNews.com:
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(GR) Troika telling domestic commercial banks to sell off their non-banking activities in Greece and their subsidiary and affiliated banks in Southeastern Europe - ekathimerini- Credit institutions will have to submit their plans to comply by the end of June and then, following consultation, final plans will be agreed by mid-July. - Troika wants to see a drastic cut in the presence of domestic banks in countries in the Balkans. - Source TradeTheNews.com
Syd 05:32 GMT May 24, 2013
Buckle up as dollar leaves safe haven:
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The Australian dollar faces further sharp losses in the next 12 months as it rediscovers its historic link to commodity prices, analysts say.
The dollar sank to a fresh 11-month-low of 95.94 yesterday. It was trading at 96.8 US cents this afternoon following a rollercoaster overnight session.
The revised forecasts from analysts come as HSBC flagged Australia’s entry into the global “currency war”, which has seen central banks print billions in cash to push their currencies lower.
Credit Suisse said its analysts had been “too timid” in their previous forecasts, given the structural fall in the dollar has happened more quickly than was expected.
HSBC said Australia entered the so-called currency war when the Reserve Bank eased the cash rate to a half-a-century low of 2.75 per cent earlier this month. Since the decision, the currency has fallen nearly by nearly 6 per cent.
“This change in tone signifies intent by the RBA to ensure a weaker [Australian dollar].”
Syd 05:23 GMT May 24, 2013
Australian dollar under pressure as Goldman encourages Aussie shorts:
Reply
THE Australian dollar remains under pressure as banks slash forecasts and traders increasingly spruik shorting the currency.
After a host of investment banks yesterday lowered their predictions for the dollar, HSBC today cut its year-end forecast to US90 cents, from US95c as the “currency war” intensifies.
“The global currency war is escalating, the central banks are winning and the US dollar bull market is gaining momentum,” said HSBC.
It came as Goldman Sachs’s Hong Kong office said in a note overnight that its “top trade recommendation” was to be short the Australian dollar versus the Norwegian Krone. Last week, high profile Bell Potter stockbroker Charlie Aitken predicted that a wave of hedge funds were set to short the currency.
Goldman last week cut its cut its 12-month forecast for the Aussie to US90c, down from US98c, on bets that capital flows into the currency would slow. Yesterday, UBS and AMP Capital also lowered their forecasts, while Credit Suisse said the Aussie would fall to US92c in three months and US85c in 12 months.
“Clients have asked whether our Australian dollar-bearish views are consistent with our forecast for a sustained pick-up in global growth starting in the second half of the year,” the Goldman note said. “The answer to this question is 'yes'.
Goldman’s thesis is based on its bet stronger global growth will not generate higher commodity prices due to abundant supply and that the Australian economy will lag the global cycle due to the peak in mining investment and “insufficient momentum in the rest of the economy to pick up the slack”.
“Lastly, Australia’s carry credentials are likely to tarnish as other central banks hike rates and a more certain macro outlook diminishes the need for triple-A-rated assets,” the note said.
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