manila tom 08:01 GMT May 24, 2013
Germany:
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Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
good ifo, euro should bias upwards today, buy dips
tokyo ginko 08:01 GMT May 24, 2013
-:
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short eur/usd 1.2955 for target below 1.28..
GL GT all!
london red 07:57 GMT May 24, 2013
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german ifo soon, euro near term supp at 10 day ma at todays low. if number doesnt disappoint then pair looks like its going to make further headway towards 1.30. risk isnt market isnt that short so no real stops to take while below 200 day ma
GVI Forex Inner Circle 07:51 GMT May 24, 2013
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Fixed Income:
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income market mostly higher. Peripherals steady.
Syd 07:46 GMT May 24, 2013
Source TradeTheNews.com:
Reply
(UK) BOE's Fisher: BoE must continue to support the economy; another rate cut would probably not boost demand- Higher bank capital should not restrict lending. - Growth in productivity should help control inflation. - Fiscal tightening will continue to weigh on output - Negative rates would not necessarily do much to boost growth at the moment, might even be perverse - Source TradeTheNews.com
Israel Dil 06:27 GMT May 24, 2013
GOLD :
Reply
buy gold the coming two weeks and take three months long holiday. Can't see gold going sub 1200$ the coming three months but well seeing gold as rising above 1700$ this summer.
bye :-)
Israel Dil 06:23 GMT May 24, 2013
sell everything:
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all financial instruments will top early next week to take the sort of an amazing dive that happens once in long time.
loads of day trading blood is about to appear soon, very soon.
ed kw 05:57 GMT May 24, 2013
every traders failure :
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ETFs were slammed from Nikkei carry trade selloff but BN reports that big funds were flat so mom & pop whent to the cleaners agan
Syd 05:39 GMT May 24, 2013
- Source TradeTheNews.com:
Reply
(GR) Troika telling domestic commercial banks to sell off their non-banking activities in Greece and their subsidiary and affiliated banks in Southeastern Europe - ekathimerini- Credit institutions will have to submit their plans to comply by the end of June and then, following consultation, final plans will be agreed by mid-July. - Troika wants to see a drastic cut in the presence of domestic banks in countries in the Balkans. - Source TradeTheNews.com
Syd 05:32 GMT May 24, 2013
Buckle up as dollar leaves safe haven:
Reply
The Australian dollar faces further sharp losses in the next 12 months as it rediscovers its historic link to commodity prices, analysts say.
The dollar sank to a fresh 11-month-low of 95.94 yesterday. It was trading at 96.8 US cents this afternoon following a rollercoaster overnight session.
The revised forecasts from analysts come as HSBC flagged Australia’s entry into the global “currency war”, which has seen central banks print billions in cash to push their currencies lower.
Credit Suisse said its analysts had been “too timid” in their previous forecasts, given the structural fall in the dollar has happened more quickly than was expected.
HSBC said Australia entered the so-called currency war when the Reserve Bank eased the cash rate to a half-a-century low of 2.75 per cent earlier this month. Since the decision, the currency has fallen nearly by nearly 6 per cent.
“This change in tone signifies intent by the RBA to ensure a weaker [Australian dollar].”
Syd 05:23 GMT May 24, 2013
Australian dollar under pressure as Goldman encourages Aussie shorts:
Reply
THE Australian dollar remains under pressure as banks slash forecasts and traders increasingly spruik shorting the currency.
After a host of investment banks yesterday lowered their predictions for the dollar, HSBC today cut its year-end forecast to US90 cents, from US95c as the “currency war” intensifies.
“The global currency war is escalating, the central banks are winning and the US dollar bull market is gaining momentum,” said HSBC.
It came as Goldman Sachs’s Hong Kong office said in a note overnight that its “top trade recommendation” was to be short the Australian dollar versus the Norwegian Krone. Last week, high profile Bell Potter stockbroker Charlie Aitken predicted that a wave of hedge funds were set to short the currency.
Goldman last week cut its cut its 12-month forecast for the Aussie to US90c, down from US98c, on bets that capital flows into the currency would slow. Yesterday, UBS and AMP Capital also lowered their forecasts, while Credit Suisse said the Aussie would fall to US92c in three months and US85c in 12 months.
“Clients have asked whether our Australian dollar-bearish views are consistent with our forecast for a sustained pick-up in global growth starting in the second half of the year,” the Goldman note said. “The answer to this question is 'yes'.
Goldman’s thesis is based on its bet stronger global growth will not generate higher commodity prices due to abundant supply and that the Australian economy will lag the global cycle due to the peak in mining investment and “insufficient momentum in the rest of the economy to pick up the slack”.
“Lastly, Australia’s carry credentials are likely to tarnish as other central banks hike rates and a more certain macro outlook diminishes the need for triple-A-rated assets,” the note said.
LINK
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:41 GMT May 24, 2013
May 24 : Yen rallies after weak Chinese data and plunge in the Nikkei boost risk aversion:
Reply
Market Review - 23/05/2013 22:58GMT
Yen rallies after weak Chinese data and plunge in the Nikkei boost risk aversion
The Japanese yen rallied after reaching a fresh 4-1/2 year low yesterday after weaker-than-expected Chinese data and selloff in Japanese stocks boosted risk aversion. The yen was also supported due to the jump in 10-year Japanese government bond yields, which rose to 1%, the highest in a year.
China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 in May from 50.4 previously.
Despite a brief rebound to session high at 103.57 in early Asian morning, price began intra-day decline after data showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 7 months. A selloff in Asian equities (Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock gauge tumbled by 7.3%) increased safe haven demand and price continued to ratchet lower, eventually falling to a low at 100.83. However, the greenback pared intra-day losses and rebounded in New York, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, pricre later edged higher to 102.06 near New York close.
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims came in at 340K, better than the expectation of 345K, prior reading was revised to 363K.
Although the single currency rebounded to 1.2856 in Asian morning, price met renewed selling there and retreated to session low at 1.2821 at European open. However, euro pared intra-day losses and rose to 1.2904 in European morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected Germany and EU manufacturing PMI. Despite a brief pullback to 1.2876, price resumed intra-day ascent and climbed to a high at 1.2957 in New York morning before stabilising.
German manufacturing PMI in May came in at 49.0, better than expectation of 48.5. Euro zone manufacturing PMI in May came in at 47.8, stronger than the forecast of 47.0.
The British pound also rebounded in Asian morning to 1.5053 before briefly retreating to 1.5022 at European open. Cable found renewed buying there and rose to 1.5094 in European morning after government report confirmed the U.K. economy returned to growth in the first quarter. Despite a brief pullback to 1.5054 in New York morning, price climbed to an intra-day high at 1.5129 in New York morning.
U.K GDP 2nd release in Q1 is reported 0.3% Q/Q n 0.6% y/y, same as expectation.
In other news, Japan EconMin Akira Amari said 'Japan's economy is on way to recovery, no need to be upset about sharp fall in stocks; closely watching market movements; natural for yen to gain in reaction to sharp falls in stocks' ECB's Nowothy said 'euro zone growth in 2013 could be worse than EU originally forecast; not time yet to unwind massive intervention by central banks to support economies.'
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand import, export, trade balance, Germany GDP, export, import, Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo business climate, current assessment, France business climate, Italy consumer confidence, UK mortgage approvals, U.S. durable goods, ex. transport and ex. defense.
Melbourne Qindex 01:18 GMT May 24, 2013
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EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
:
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The market is positive when it is able to close above the barrier at 1.2900 // 1.2904 in the last New York session. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.2996 // 1.2999. The daily cycle normal limits are positioning at 1.30016 - 1.31562 - 1.30645.
Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Syd 01:16 GMT May 24, 2013
Resources sector threatened by US shale gas: McKibbon:
Reply
Former Reserve Bank of Australia board member and economist Warwick McKibbin believes Australia's resources sector will come under even greater pressure as shale gas in the United States continues to emerge as a new global energy source, The Australian Financial Review reports.
According to the newspaper, Mr McKibbin said successive governments had squandered the benefits of the mining boom by spending too much.
He added the expansion of shale gas was likely to reduce gas prices around the world from 2016.
"From Australia’s point of view this shock in the US reduces Australia’s terms of trade by about eight per cent over the next couple of years," professor McKibbin told the AFR.
"That’s a fairly big negative shock and will weigh quite heavily on the Australian dollar."
"That’s a fairly big negative shock and will weigh quite heavily on the Australian dollar."
GVI Forex Inner Circle 21:30 GMT May 23, 2013
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Calendar:
Reply
May 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 24.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, US-Durable Goods
GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:52 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light:
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- Durable Goods
- As we predicted early Thursday
markets spent the session digesting the short-term implications of the
testimony
by Chairman
Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION
that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A
policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will
be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on
stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh
on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
- It is a fear of the "shock
effect" on the market that has Bernanke trying to desensitize the
markets to this change in policy well
before it hits. The transition back to a more "normal" policy
will be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and
mostly jobs. In terms of trading, expect USD values to be heavily
influenced by stock and bond markets and for stock and bond markets to
be highly sensitive to economic data reports.
- The flash China (HSBC) PMI data
fell
below the key 50 expansion/contraction line, while German and French
data were a touch stronger. The EZ flash PMI was better than expected
but sill below the 50 expansion line..
- U.S. key Weekly Jobless
claims returned to back below 350K in the month. The Markit flash PMI
fell modestly, while New Home Sales were strong.
- The critical German IFO Survey
is due on Friday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3002
|
JGB
0.88% 0bp
|
Asia:Sharply
Weaker
|
USDJPY
100.44
|
Bund
1.44% +2bp
|
Europe
Sharply Weaker
|
EURJPY
130.58
|
U.S.2.02%
-1bp
|
U.S.:Mixed
|
GVI Forex Blog 20:51 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- Durable Goods
As we predicted early Thursday markets spent the session digesting the short-term implications of the testimony by Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light
Amman wfakhoury 20:19 GMT May 23, 2013
AUDUSD .9770:
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 10:51 GMT May 23, 2013
AUDUSD .9770: Reply
0.9770 confirmed ..will be reached
-------------------
Third target 0.9770 reached.
JERUSALEM KB 18:41 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Trading the sup & ress. levels:
Reply
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold form strong support ress. , strong sell signal formed below 1418 ress. followed by double bottom on 1hr chart which may put gold in a side way trading between both levels for a short term.
i took 45 trades in 2 trading weeks , 25short & 20 longs result with 33 win and 12loss , 40 scalp(50 to 60 pips) and 5 ends with 250pips+ for each(i shared those five on GV).
london red 17:25 GMT May 23, 2013
+:
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eurchf looks to be running out of steam and rolling over intraday. did a nice bounce from lows but recent high was a fibo off big multi year move. long wick on top dailz candle and as long as stays below 1.26, a move to 123-122 possible technically, but first priority to take 10 day ma and then intraday low out.
Hillegom Purk 16:54 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
Aud/usd:
Reply
Good day. Today a good day for Ozmond. I rather see it go back to 92 minus for 500 pips up.
Stay tuned...
Cambridge Joe 16:51 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
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Thanks red, that would appear to bear out the way it looks !
london red 16:49 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
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Joe, they wont print for various reasons, but since the greece and cyprus incidents have been digested, draghi hasnt missed a chance to talk the euro lower.
Mtl JP 16:44 GMT May 23, 2013
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buy euro
:
Reply
Joe I would suggest that market may reward reports of attention to certain issues / progress in them, such as the upcoming yak by Weidmann whose topic is on Crisis and Risk for European Integration. (in about 45 minutes)
Cambridge Joe 16:39 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
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JP charts appear to suggest that Drahgi has a laxative effect on e/$ . :-)
london red 16:38 GMT May 23, 2013
+:
Reply
still 25 mins to go but possible hourly reversal on sp500, stopped at 100 hour ma and just short of 38.2% retracement of yesterdays fall from high/low. if we get a large wick on hour candle, this nervous market might run back to lows.
Mtl JP 16:36 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
buy euro
:
Reply
current euro overhead block 50 day 1.2983
and ... 20 day 1.3006 above that
Mtl JP 16:33 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
buy euro
:
Reply
heads up:
Draghi yaks in London in 3 hrs
on Future of Europe
london red 16:33 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level:
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high often given as highest price paid ie the offer side, so unless your kiwi spread is a point or less, you won't have got filled unfortunately.
london red 16:28 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
Reply
today market is discounting european yields and potential italy referendum headache. ifo tomorrow morning may refocus attention on europe.
manila 16:25 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
:
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
euro should reach 1.3020 by month end
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many more chart points
