Syd 03:11 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud:
Reply
AMP Capital Revises End-2013 Australian Dollar Forecast to US$0.95 from US$1.00
Westpac sees further declines in NZD/USD, AUD/USD
NZD/USD, AUD/USD are likely to see further fallout during the session from Bernanke's remarks about potentially tapering QE, says Westpac currency strategist Imre Speizer. And with Fed policy being data-dependent, there's extra onus on incoming US data, which includes jobless claims and manufacturing gauges on deck. NZD/USD last at 0.8077 vs. 0.8155 late Wednesday. Speizer says fallout from Bernanke could take the pair below 0.8060. AUD/USD last at 0.9701 vs. 0.9780 late Wednesday in Sydney. Speizer sees pair to break below 0.9660.
Syd 03:05 GMT May 23, 2013
HEARD ON THE STREET: China's Not Hiring:
Reply
China's labor market has been a bright spot amid economic gloom. Strong jobs data over the past year has helped offset concerns about slowing growth. But there are signs employment is beginning to weaken too.
The official job numbers in China are irregular and, in some cases, inaccurate. But other sources of data fill in the blanks. For instance, the number of new jobs advertised on leading recruitment website Zhaopin.com fell sharply in April. With the first-quarter peak hiring season, some falling off in April is expected. But a 22% drop in new job postings from the previous month was the steepest decline since Zhaopin started collecting data in 2010.
Business surveys suggest the downturn is broad-based across manufacturing and services too. The preliminary reading for the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in May showed factories trimming their workforce for a second month. Worryingly, the HSBC Markit services PMI also points to job losses.
If labor markets are turning down, they are at least doing so from a position of strength. China's private sector wages rose 14% in real terms in 2012, according the National Bureau of Statistics. Demand for workers outstripped supply by a record amount in the first quarter. The drop in new job adverts on Zhaopin came after a record high in March.
Demographic shifts means there is less need to create jobs. China's workforce is ageing and shrinking. But strong labor markets are still critically important for Beijing. Low unemployment and rising wages are the basis of social stability. Strong employment is also a crucial precondition for rebalancing the economy so that households are a bigger driver of growth. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics this week showed that process has stalled, with the private consumption share of gross domestic product flat at 35.7% in 2012.
For now, the job indicators are flashing amber rather than red. Premier Li Keqiang has signaled that there is little scope for a stimulus. But if hiring continues to deteriorate, leaders will find it difficult to turn off the lending taps.
Syd 02:50 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud:
Reply
AMP Capital Says Australian Dollar Likely at US$0.90 by End-2014
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:08 GMT May 23, 2013
Dollar rallies broadly on Bernanke's hawkish comments : May 23, 2013:
Reply
Market Review - 22/05/2013 23:02GMT
Dollar rallies broadly on Bernanke's hawkish comments
The greenback surged against majority of its peers on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at possibilities of the central bank slowing its bond purchases. Initially, dollar briefly dropped across the board after Bernanke said monetary stimulus is helping the U.S. economy recovery.
Fed's Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill and said 'U.S. monetary policy providing significant benefits, premature tightening would carry substantial risk; Fed will gradually reduce the flow of asset purchases if labor market improves in a real and sustainable way; Fed paying close attention to risk of financial instability; risks of financial instability does factor in to Fed thinking on the appropriate amount of monetary stimulus and exit strategy.'
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback rebounded to 102.65 at Asian open, price retreated to 102.35. However, dollar found renewed buying there and strengthened throughout European session after BoJ Governor Kuroda said he will maintain his loose monetary policy and rose to 103.18 at New York open. Despite brief pullback to 102.68 after Bernanke's initial comments, dollar rallied above last Friday's 103.32 high to a fresh 4-1/2 year high at 103.74 on dollar's broad-based strength.
Later, price pared intra-day gains and fell sharply to 102.73 in New York afternoon as minutes from the Fed's latest FOMC meeting showed policymakers were waiting for progress in labor market before altering the pace of their bond buying.
Although the single currency remained under pressure in Asia and retreated to 1.2904 at European open, price rose again in European morning and gained to 1.2959 in New York morning ahead of Bernanke's testimony in Congress. Despite a brief but sharp rise to an intra-day high at 1.2998 immediately after Bernanke's initial comments, euro swiftly pared intra-day gains and tanked after the chairman hinted at possibilities of the Fed slowing the pace of its bond purchases. Price eventually slumped to an session low of 1.2834 in New York afternoon.
The British pound remained under pressure in Asia and resumed recent decline to 1.5075 in European morning after a government report showed U.K. retail sales unexpectedly declined and as minutes of the Bank of England showed Governor Mervyn King was defeated for a fourth month in his bid to expand bond buying. Cable also rebounded swiftly to 1.5157 in New York morning before tumbling to a 7-week low at 1.5020 at New York midday before stabilising.
BoE minutes stated 'QE in May would have surprised markets, some members feared it could have created doubts about commitment to price stability; for others, case for more QE based on labour market slack, risk that euro zone weakness could push up sterling.'
U.K. April retail sales came in at -1.3% m/m 0.5% y/y versus forecasts of 0.0% n 2.0% respectively.
In other news, Fed's FOMC minutes stated ''many Fed participants felt continued labor market gains, more confidence in outlook, diminished risks needed b4 slowing bond buying; a number of participants expressed willingness to reduce pace of bond buying as early as June if economic growth strong, sustained; most participants emphasized importance of being prepared to adjust bond purchases up or down depending on incoming data.'
Data to be released on Thursday :
China HSCB flash manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK retail sales, GDP, U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, house price index and new home sales.
GVI Forex 01:48 GMT May 23, 2013
- My Profile
China:
Reply
HSBC CHINA MAY FLASH PMI 49.6 VS APR FINAL 50.4
dc CB 01:22 GMT May 23, 2013
United States:
Reply
continuing with POMO After the 3 day Weekend
Tues $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Wed $2.75 - $3.50 billion
Thurs $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Fri to End the New Highs Month $4.25 - $5.25 billion
If Stox sell off in the face of this? Which would include the 20th in a Row Up Tuesday(if it does occur...it will)
dc CB 01:15 GMT May 23, 2013
FOMC minutes takeaway :
Reply
Whenever any market experiences a daily price greater than the high of the previous period’s price and a low below the low of the previous period—you’ve got an outside day or reversal. But this ain’t your daddy’s stock market anymore my friend.
First, Bernanke’s congressional testimony was critical to an early rally given his assertion to maintain QE at current levels. But, he also suggested concerns about how markets would react should QE be tapered or (gasp!) removed.
Fed Minutes were released which noted various Fed governors wanting to halt QE in June and that certain “financial markets were becoming too buoyant”. BOOM! Stocks reversed. Is there a “Mutiny on the QE Bounty?
The hint of a halt to QE from the Fed Minutes trumped Bernanke’s QEinity congressional testimony.
You can be sure all this will be walked back Thursday. After all, Jobless Claims may beat, PMI Flash Mfg Index, Home Price Index and New Home Sales could bring the bulls quickly back to the fore.
Let’s see what happens.
A REVERSAL DAY FOR MARKETS
Melbourne Qindex 23:54 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
:
Reply
The market is stable when it can trade within the range 1.2850 - 1.2875. On the other hand if 1.2814 - 1.2850 fails to hold, the next supporting range is 1.2778 // 1.2786.
ICSForex Jay Meisler 22:38 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
ICSForex Update:
Reply
I have been asked who is Institutional Liquidity (ILQ) and is it a reputable broker. The ILQ story is addressed in the following link and you will see why we chose to partner with this firm.
Try a Better Broker
Syd 22:08 GMT May 22, 2013
FOMC minutes takeaway :
Reply
Greg Ip
Despite financial stability worries, only 1 of 19 members thought it justified monetary policy response.
Syd 21:47 GMT May 22, 2013
Number' on Fed backed tapering as early as June:
Reply
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - While there was no consensus among Federal Reserve officials on when the central bank could begin to slow down asset purchases, a "number" of central bank officials were willing to taper as soon as their next meeting in June, according to the minutes of their April 30-May 1 meeting released Wednesday. On the other hand, a "couple" of Fed officials said the Fed might have to ease more if inflation fell further. One Fed official wanted to stop the bond purchases immediately, while another wanted to increase the size of the program. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke told Congress earlier that the central bank could begin to taper the asset purchases in "the next few meetings" if the data continues to improve. The minutes also revealed the Fed started a review of their exit strategy principles last released to the public in 2011. The officials decided that "the broad principles" were still valid but the central bank was likely to need greater flexibility in the details. No decisions were made and Bernanke asked the staff to do more work on the issue for the policymakers to review in the future.
LINK
Mtl JP 21:37 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
Canada:
Reply
as every coin has two sides...
Slowdown? Nearly half of Canadian home owners eager to buy property - reports the Globe and Mail
Mtl JP 21:32 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
Canada:
Reply
Cooling housing market will cost us 150,000 jobs, mortgage group warns - CBC
Fewer housing starts mean fewer jobs in everything from mortgage financing to furniture sales - warned the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP).
Syd 21:03 GMT May 22, 2013
Mexico Stocks, Peso Slide on Concerns About Cuts in Fed Stimulus:
Reply
EXICO CITY--Mexican stocks gave back opening gains and fell Wednesday to their lowest close since September, while the peso reached its weakest level against the dollar in two months on investor concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve could be preparing in coming months to start withdrawing monetary stimulus from the economy.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 21:02 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
Bernanke punts. UK Retail Sales soft. BOJ unchanged:
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Trade. CN- HSBC flash PMI. EZ- Draghi Speech, flash
PMIs, Consumer Confidence. GB- GDP, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Markit PMI,
New Homes Sales
- Testimony by Chairman
Bernanke to Congress broke no new ground. The message was that.
Fed policy is future data dependent and no tapering of Fed bond
purchases has been decided yet. In other words, Bernanke punted.
NY Fed President Dudley did send a signal Wednesday not to expect much.
Nevertheless, in afternoon trade equity and bond prices sold off.
- A slew of flash PMI reports for
May are due on Thursday.
- U.S. key Weekly Jobless claims
and New Home Sales are awaited.
- Existing Homes sales data fell
short of market expectations.
- U.K. retail sales data were
weaker than expected. The GBPUSD is weaker.
- USDJPY gained after the BOJ
kept policy steady as expected. the BOJ upgraded its view of the
economy.
- The critical German IFO Survey
is due on Friday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3006
|
JGB
0.88% +1bp
|
Asia:Mixed
to Weaker
|
USDJPY
100.31
|
Bund
1.42% +5bp
|
Europe
Higher
|
EURJPY
130.45
|
U.S.2.03%
+10bp
|
U.S.:Weaker
|
GVI Forex Blog 21:00 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Trade. CN- HSBC flash PMI. EZ- Draghi Speech, flash PMIs, Consumer Confidence. GB- GDP, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Markit PMI, New Homes Sales
Testimony by Chairman Bernanke to Congress broke no new ground. The message was that. Fed policy is future data dependent and no tapering of Fed bond purchases has been decided yet. In other words, Bernanke punted. NY Fed President Dudley did send a signal Wednesday not to expect much. Nevertheless, in afternoon trade equity and bond prices sold off.
Bernanke punts. UK Retail Sales soft. BOJ unchanged
GVI Forex Blog 20:36 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
Reply
Event risk today: Locally there are expectation surveys from Australia for inflation and unemployment – minor for markets. More importantly there’s China PMI (HSBC version) this afternoon, while tonight there’s a batch of US data and Fedspeak. US data will assume even more importance for markets in the wake of Bernanke’s remark last night.
Forex - Qestpac Morning Report
Cambridge Joe 20:24 GMT May 22, 2013
The outlook thru Asia:
Reply
IMO the outlook thru Asia is for softer USD.
As I say, just IMO. GL
GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:58 GMT May 22, 2013
- My Profile
United States:
Reply
US 10-yr ending at 2.03% +10bps. Equities are sharply lower.
Syd 19:19 GMT May 22, 2013
WSJ Blog: Parsing Fed Minutes: Debating When to Pull Back:
Reply
Below are key passages in the minutes and how to read them:
1) "A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed will debate at its June 18-19 meeting whether to reduce its $85-billion per month bond-buying program, but officials don't appear near a consensus on the matter. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke suggested in testimony to Congress earlier in the day that he wanted to avoid moving prematurely toward pulling back.
2) "Several participants pointed to the improvement in interest-sensitive sectors, such as consumer durables and housing, over the recent period as evidence that the purchases were having positive results for the economy."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed talks about the costs and benefits of its policies. So far, they think the bond buying program is still helping the economy.
3) "Economic data releases over the intermeeting period were mixed, raising some concern that the recovery might be slowing after a solid start earlier this year, thereby repeating the pattern observed in recent years. Various views on this prospect were offered, from those participants who put more emphasis on the underlying momentum of the economy, noting the strengthening in private domestic final demand, to those who stressed the growing fiscal restraint or the other headwinds still facing the economy."
WHAT IT MEANS: Fed officials are hesitant about their next step on monetary policy in part because they're especially uncertain about how the economy unfolds in the next few months, in the face of tighter fiscal policies.
4) "Both headline and core PCE inflation in the first quarter came in below the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent, but these recent lower readings appeared to be due, in part, to temporary factors; other measures of inflation as well as inflation expectations had remained more stable. Accordingly, participants generally continued to expect that inflation would move closer to the 2 percent objective over the medium run."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed's favored inflation measures have dropped well below its 2% target, but officials aren't deeply concerned about it yet.
5) "Participants began a review of the exit strategy principles that were published in the minutes of the Committee's June 2011 meeting ... The broad principles adopted almost two years ago appeared generally still valid, but developments since then--including the change in the size and composition of (System Open Market Account) asset holdings-- suggested a need for greater flexibility regarding the details of implementing policy normalization, particularly because those details would appropriately depend at least in part upon future economic and financial developments."
WHAT IT MEANS: The Fed is reviewing a plan to sell its mortgage backed securities some day in the future. It might not do so, but it hasn't reached a decision yet and isn't sure when it will detail the new plan. The staff will study it further.
6) "Several participants raised the possibility that the federal funds rate might not, in the future, be the best indicator of the general level of short-term interest rates, and supported further staff study of potential alternative approaches to implementing monetary policy in the longer term and of possible new tools to improve control over short-term interest rates."
WHAT IT MEANS: In normal times the Fed moves the federal funds rate -- a rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans -- to manage the broader spectrum of rates in the financial system. But because it has pumped so much money into the financial system, its control over this rate might have diminished. Fed officials have become more focused on another rate that they do control directly -- a rate it pays banks that keep reserves on deposit with the central bank -- as one of its main policy levers in the future. Now officials appear to be gearing up to study these relationships more carefully.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/
dc CB 19:16 GMT May 22, 2013
WSJ Blog: Fed Minutes Pull Plug on Stock Rally:
Reply
What is 410 words and is released precisely 180 seconds after the FOMC's minutes? Why Jon Hilsenrath's FOMC minute-parsing piece of course. Which we can only assume means Jon was on the "preapproved" list for early distribution and pre-analysis, because not even we can analyze and type that fast. We are confident he did not breach the embargo. Because that would not look good for the Fed already being investigated by the Inspector General for last month's humilating breach.
So what did Hilsy have to say this time? This:...............................................
Trust Hilsenrath to miss the most important part of the minutes, which was this - the first "on the FOMC record" admission by some that the Fed is officially blowing a bubble:
180 Seconds After The FOMC Release, Hilsenrath Parses Fed Minutes
london red 18:43 GMT May 22, 2013
-:
Reply
very quickly stopped out. at these levels tail on daily candle.
london red 18:33 GMT May 22, 2013
-:
Reply
have used pullback in eurjpy to get involved at current levels, stop below asian low. v tight, so luck required! looking for retest of high. not without risk as eurusd has done a lower low but counting on usdjpy to drag it higher from 103
Israel Dil 18:33 GMT May 22, 2013
WFAK pulled his finger off the dam:
Reply
jokes over ... trade seriously and laugh :-)
In case of no new lower daily lows then wild bounce is on cards, relating this sentence to ALL trading instruments :-)
Syd 18:26 GMT May 22, 2013
WSJ Blog: Fed Minutes Pull Plug on Stock Rally:
Reply
Quite a comedown for U.S. stocks at this point in the session, as major averages slide into negative territory after earlier spiking higher upon release of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's prepared testimony.
Dow industrials were up almost 155 points at their high, now down 35. Tech-heavy Nasdaq Comp falls 31 points and S&P 500 sheds 9 points.
FOMC minutes highlight deeper debate over asset purchases, spooking some of the fast money that's afraid of the central bank tapering its bond-buying program.
Materials, energy, utilities and tech lead sector decliners; only health-care sector advancing now. U.S. dollar rallies; Treasurys pare price declines.
Bernanke: Bond Buying Could Slow
PAR 18:21 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke:
Reply
Hearing Obama calling an emergency meeting for all his economic advisers as stocks are lower intraday . PPT on Red Alert . Code RED . Lol.
Israel Dil 18:15 GMT May 22, 2013
Bernanke:
Reply
Don't worry PAR, the white house already collected WFAK with air force 1 to handle the crisis situation.
Print and if stocks decline then print more :-)
RSS News Feed
many more chart points
