SaR KaL 07:18 GMT May 21, 2013
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KaL's Trend and Level:
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3 pairs that will reverse from this week into the next 2-3 weeks
EURCAD from 1.3400 wants 1.30
CADJPY from 98.5 to 105
cadchf from .93 to 0.99
still bullish USD for 2-3 weeks
Cambridge Joe 07:15 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level:
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Interesting KaL !
I just took a gbpnzd long about 10 mins ago !! :-)
Changsha 06:18 GMT May 21, 2013
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Charles Evans: No rush in downscaling QE:
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The Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated on May 20 when speaking to the Chicago CFA Society that the job market has turned into a good progress, which still needed more time for evaluation though.
Evans signified that he held no brief for taking measures to downscale QE in the Monetary Policy Conference from June 8 to June 19. However, he demonstrated his optimistic attitude to the outlook for U.S. economy and belief in its true recovery.
Evans claimed that the U.S. economy had always been highly resilient, especially under the environment of the antidromic fiscal policy and global weakening economy. In the aspect of inflation, he was also pleased to see the CPI rising more closely to the Fed’s 2% goal.
Changsha 06:17 GMT May 21, 2013
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Gold: Sell, sell, sell!:
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By Greg Canavan from BullionVault, May 20, 2013
Time to sell gold? Leveraged traders sure think so...
ANOTHER DAY, another beating for gold and silver investors, writes Greg Canavan at The Daily Reckoning Australia.
After trading lower all day Friday, Asian futures markets today opened in a panic, with leveraged holders no doubt getting margin calls over the weekend. The result? Stump up more cash or sell. Clearly, selling is the preferred option.
It seems like a lot of punters are trying to pick the bottom. They're buying in the expectation of a bounce...and when that doesn't eventuate, more selling takes place.
In gold, we're now closing in on the low from April at around US$1320. Will it hold or head lower still? We have no idea. And we certainly wouldn't be utilising the futures market to make a bet on it.
But we do know that for every seller there is a buyer, whether it's in the futures market or the physical gold market. Some are happy that prices are again back at levels from a few years ago. They're the 'strong hands' and they're taking in what the 'weak hands' throw into the market.
All this reminds us of 1999. Back then you had financial market euphoria in the midst of a new internet age. The tech bubble was in full swing. Stocks – especially anything tech related – were a sure thing. They went up day after day on nothing more than hope and expectation.
Meanwhile, gold was in the doldrums...a barbarous relic well past its time. In the modern age of pets.com and new paradigms, gold was an anachronism. But as hindsight was to show, 1999 represented the nadir in gold's long bear market.
Today, we are in a similar state of market euphoria. Everyone is jumping on the central bank bandwagon. They're making bets that can't lose. Downside risk has central bank protection (the Bernanke put) and the upside is unlimited.
What could possible go wrong?
Against this backdrop, institutional investors and speculators dump gold futures to go long S&P futures. And it's a great trade at the moment. It 'makes sense'. As in 1999, who sees the sense in owning gold when faith in central banks (or new technology) seems all-pervasive? Right now, it seems like an unnecessary hedge – so sell, Sell, SELL!
That may be the mindset of the speculator, but it's a different story for the physical gold advocate. According to reports, physical gold demand is as strong as ever in India and China. And last months' price plunge led to huge demand from the 'retail' investor all around the world.
So while the 'institutional imperative' (Warren Buffett's reference to the short term pressure that institutions face to 'do something') forces the hand of big money, the small investor takes a longer view. They see a world distorted by cheap money. They see a highly fragile financial system. You don't get a stock market melt-up when the underlying financial foundations are sound. You get this type of price action when there is something very, very wrong with the system and the price signals and incentives it gives off.
On the face of it, it is entirely rational that markets are soaring on the back of unprecedented central bank largesse. And it is rational that speculators see less need for a hedge in such circumstances, and so they sell gold. But we are pretty confident that hindsight will prove this trade to be a very big mistake. And the biggest mistake is that most players think they can get out before everyone else.
The other similarity between now and 1999 is a little more obscure. It relates to the extremely low 'gold forward offered rate' (GOFO) that was prevalent in 1999 and...now. The GOFO is the interest rate one must pay to borrow US Dollars using gold as collateral. Alternatively, it is the interest rate charged by holders of US Dollars to obtain gold short term. The lower the rate, the greater the demand for gold, or the greater amount of Dollars bidding for gold.
Last week the 3-month GOFO dropped to the lowest level since 1999 (when the three month rate actually went into backwardation...a highly unusual situation where the owner of gold gets paid to swap their gold for US Dollars).
So once again, despite (or because of) falling prices, the gold interest rate structure is telling you demand for physical gold remains very strong.
But there is one important difference worth considering. In 1999 market interest rates were much more 'normal' than they are now. A series of recent articles in the Financial Times' Alphaville blog argue that a super low GOFO simply reflects super low rates everywhere. It doesn't signal strong demand for physical gold, but just an attempt by risk adverse institutional money to protect capital in a deflationary environment.
It's a complex argument, and a bit beyond our simple powers of comprehension. Being a simpleton, we tend to think the right interpretation is the simplest one. And the simplest interpretation of gold is that it will protect your wealth in times of severe monetary distortion. Full stop. End of story.
That gold doesn't seem to be doing so now is a product of markets sending wildly false price signals – just as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones are sending a false signal of a US economy in good health. The falling gold price is sending a false signal about the underlying health of the financial system. And tragically, when the majority of investors succumb to this false signal, it will likely turn around warn of the opposite development.
We have no idea when this will happen, but to give your imagination a kick along, we include this comparison of gold's recent performance with the 1970s' bull market (sourced from Jesse's Café American). From 1975-1976, the gold price fell 50%. The yellow line in the chart below represents the latter part of that correction. As you can see, a steep price fall was followed by a rebound, then another fall to new lows.
This last dramatic fall obviously cleared out the last of the weak hands, and set gold up for an explosive move higher in the years to come.
So far, the 2013 move in gold is following the 1976 script. If that continues, expect new lows very soon, followed by a sharp reversal.
Don't bet on it though. History rarely repeats exactly. We offer the comparison only to show that we've been here before. And also to make the comment that if you want to ride a bull market through to the end, you must first endure years of pain...of being 'wrong' and feeling like a fool.
The market is not so much a test of intellectual strength as emotional strength. If you don't have conviction and belief in your position, the market will take you out the back and beat you senseless.
And we're guessing many gold investors are this week wondering when the beatings will stop.
manila tom 02:23 GMT May 21, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
:
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Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
cheers Qindex, previous support 1.2850 is once again a good one, agree very much re. higher level, i still see 1.2970 and 1.3020 before month's is over, let's roll it, sell usd!
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:32 GMT May 21, 2013
Yen rises on Amari's comments : May 21, 2013:
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Market Review - 20/05/2013 23:02GMT
Yen rises on Amari's comments
The Japanese yen rose against the greenback on Monday after Japan Economy Minister Akira Amari said on Sunday that further losses in the yen would have negative effects on the country's economy. The greenback was pressured throughout the day on expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would hint to trim its bond purchases this week.
Japan's Amari spoke on a Sunday talk show on NHK and said 'it's being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed. If the yen keeps on weakening a lot more, it will have a negative impact on peoples' lives.' He also added that if the weakening of the yen does have a negative impact on living costs, "it's our job to figure out how to minimize that."
Earlier, the greenback opened lower and tumbled briefly but sharply to an intra-day low at 102.00 in New Zealand morning, however, price pared intra-day losses and recovered to 102.92 in Australia. Dollar remained under pressure in Asia and weakened further in European morning before falling to 102.17 in New York afternoon.
Although the single currency came under selling pressure in New Zealand and dropped to session low at 1.2819 at Asian open, price pared intra-day losses and rose to 1.2878 in European morning. Despite a brief pullback to 1.2842 in New York morning, renewed dollar's weakness pushed the pair higher and price climbed to an intra-day high at 1.2901 in New York afternoon.
The British pound also came under selling pressure in New Zealand and dropped to session low at 1.5166 in Australia, however, cable pared intra-day losses and rose in tandem with euro to 1.5219 in European morning. Price continued to trade with a firm undertone and found a fresh wave of buying in New York morning, pushing the pair higher to an intra-day top at 1.5281 in New York afternoon.
In other news, Japan's MoF panel said 'absolutely no guarantee Japan domestic savings will continue to fund JGB purchases; failure to meet budget-cutting promise cud cause spike in interest rates, offset effects of monetary easing; if interest rates rise in deviation fm fundamentals, that wud damage medium, long-term economic growth.'
On the data front, Japan leading indicators rose to 97.9 in March from 97.6 previously. U.S. Chicago Fed index dropped to -0.53 from previous figure of -0.23.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan all industry index, Germany PPI, U.K. PPI, ONS house price, CPI, RPI and U.S. redbook retail sales.
Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT May 21, 2013
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EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
:
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EUR/USD : With good support at 1.2830 - 1.2850, the market should be able to move further up towards the trading ranges at 1.2921 - 1.2940 - 1.2981.
Qindex.com
==============================================
Melbourne Qindex 12:05 GMT May 20, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EURUSD : The market is going to overcome the resistance point at 1.2886.
Qindex.com
=============================================
Melbourne Qindex 01:25:19 GMT - 05/18/2013
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
The market has fired a warning signal that it is going to reverse its course after hitting the critical point at 1.2797 in the last trading session and EUR/USD was able to close within 1.2814 // 1.2830 this week in the New York session. On this Monday I am expecting the market to tackle 1.2886 in the Asian session.
Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Mtl JP 00:56 GMT May 21, 2013
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USD/JPY : Current Comments
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Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT May 18, 2013
Buy EURUSD
On this Monday I am expecting the market to tackle 1.2886 in the Asian session.
that was a beautiful trade call
Melbourne Qindex 00:26 GMT May 21, 2013
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USD/JPY : Current Comments
:
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Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
USD/JPY : Critical Point 105.296
I am expecting a good two ways traffic between 102.0 - 105.3. In the last two trading days (Friday and Monday) the barriers at 102.027 - 102.064 - 102.163 show a good support from profit taking. The short term upside target is 105.148 and a medium term target is 110.225. A barrier is positioning at 104.448.
Qindex.com
==============================================
Melbourne Qindex 08:12 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments : Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
USD/JPY : Short term targeting point 103.108
Qindex.com
USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
Melbourne Qindex 01:28 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments : Reply
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 100.396 // 100.914 - 101.267 - 101.429 // ...
Qindex.com
USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
Melbourne Qindex 01:13 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments : Reply
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
USD/JPY : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the barrier at 100.935 // 100.982.
Qindex.com
USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
Mtl JP 23:23 GMT May 20, 2013
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Jim Willie:
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dc CB 21:50 - having (and more importantly possessing) Gold is one of the essentials for waging war.
dc CB 21:57 GMT May 20, 2013
Amateur investors tap 401(k)s to buy homes:
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In order to get in on hot housing markets, amateur investors are buying up homes and taking risky measures -- like tapping their retirement accounts -- to fund the deals.
"We're seeing many people cash out 401(k)s or IRAs because they want to take advantage of the market," said Sean Galaris of financial services firm LM Funding, based in Tampa. "This new scenario involves people losing significant personal funds since they are financing real estate through retirement accounts, savings and life insurance."
"The decision to take money from your 401(k) is not for everyone,"
Cambridge Joe 21:56 GMT May 20, 2013
AUDNZD:
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Thanks red. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
BTW earlier usdmxn came withing 17 pips of triggering a major sell at the HOD today ! OK yes it's softer, but it hasn't tanked which was on the cards.
GL & Good night !
london red 21:47 GMT May 20, 2013
AUDNZD:
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Joe its guaranteed to do something soon, up or down, as rba releases minutes of last meeting in a few hours and later still inflation expectations from rbnz.
Cambridge Joe 21:29 GMT May 20, 2013
AUDNZD:
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red thank V much for the tech picture.
This scenario is time sensitive (ish) and really, I had expected 1990 to have been struck by now..... it hasn't so far, so that pushes back the time for a reaction. Missed the bus so as to speak.
It IS linear, just not a straight linear :-)
If it doesn't get cooking soon, I'd look more toward London open for a reaction.
Possibly an upmove in about 1 hour... but nothing on the scale I was looking for... GL
GVI Forex 21:27 GMT May 20, 2013
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AUDNZD:
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AUD/NZD 1 day: Still correcting April-May’s large decline, and should reach 1.2130.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The trend decline to sub-1.1960 should resume once this corrective bounce is complete. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
Westpac Morning Report
london red 21:14 GMT May 20, 2013
AUDNZD:
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Audnzd has been building a base for good few days imo. Futures positioning and BoNZ rhehoric suggests a rebound is possible. Couple of decent tails on daily candles support view of base. I have a position just above 1.20 and will stop just under 200 month sma at 11940. If i am right i will want to scale in above 12125/50. Potential for a multi figure move as this pair has 9 weeks of losses so a spring back will be quite violent when it eventually occurs.
Cambridge Joe 20:54 GMT May 20, 2013
AUDNZD:
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1990 taken triggers a sequence of buying waves throughout the Asian session plus IMO. GL
GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:40 GMT May 20, 2013
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UK CPI & RPI data awaited. JPY gains after comments:
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- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: GB- CPI & RPI
- Tuesday sees key UK CPI and RPI
data. U.K. inflation data is not seen as likely to impact policy in the
near term.
- Silver has fallen sharply. Some
call silver the high-beta gold trade. Some speculated that silver
positions were liquidated to cover losses on JPY positions The
USDJPY traded lower after the Japanese Economics Minister signaled
pleasure with the current value of the JPY. In other words, he was not
talking the JPY down. The Nikkei gained today 10-yr JGB yields
were
higher.
- A BOJ decision is due on
Wednesday. No change in policy is expected.
- The week ahead will see the
minutes from the latest Fed Meeting (May 1) and testimony by Chairman
Bernanke to the House. This testimony will give him ample opportunity
to signal to the markets what the current intentions of the central
bank may be.
- Thursday sees a number of flash
PMI reports U.K. data could also influence the GBP The critical
German IFO Survey is due on Friday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3019
|
JGB
0.85% +6bp
|
Asia:Higher
|
USDJPY
99.99
|
Bund
1.35% +3bp
|
Europe
Higher
|
EURJPY
130.17
|
U.S.1.97%
+2bp
|
U.S.:Mixed
|
dc CB 20:18 GMT May 20, 2013
Wells Dry, Fertile Plains Turn to Dust:
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Forty-nine years ago, Ashley Yost’s grandfather sank a well deep into a half-mile square of rich Kansas farmland. He struck an artery of water so prodigious that he could pump 1,600 gallons to the surface every minute. Last year, Mr. Yost was coaxing just 300 gallons........when the groundwater runs out, it is gone for good. Refilling the aquifer would require hundreds, if not thousands, of years of rains.
A shift to growing corn, a much thirstier crop than most, has only worsened matters. Driven by demand, speculation and a government mandate to produce biofuels, the price of corn has tripled since 2002, and Kansas farmers have responded by increasing the acreage of irrigated cornfields by nearly a fifth.
At an average 14 inches per acre in a growing season, a corn crop soaks up groundwater like a sponge
the High Plains Aquifer is giving out
GVI Forex Blog 20:14 GMT May 20, 2013
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Event risk today: Today’s local highlight will be the RBA minutes (from 7 May meeting) which will be combed for clues to any follow-up rate cut. NZ has migration. There’s Fedspeak tonight from NY’s Dudley (dove and voter).
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
dc CB 20:03 GMT May 20, 2013
US oil:
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"farmers get all sorts of tax breaks and subsidies."
dosen't matter whose pocket it comes out of....it's the pocket it goes into.
london red 19:13 GMT May 20, 2013
cable:
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cable getting squeezed showing no sign of topping out, but will try to get short at around 1.53, just ahead of the 38.2 of run from 148x-156x. also channel is that region which may cause market to take a breather. may require stops above friday high to be taken before market pauses. stop will be above 10 day sma, looking for a head start before inflation data.
Mtl JP 18:26 GMT May 20, 2013
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US oil:
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still Mtl JP.. some update of the browser I did overnite is playing gremlin with saving settings (and navigation between pages on the forum)
City JP 18:21 GMT May 20, 2013
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US oil:
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unlike operators of diesel VW Golfs farmers get all sorts of tax breaks and subsidies.
City JP 18:17 GMT May 20, 2013
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EURO - sell sell sell:
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adding to The Dutch run 250% household debt to income.
Dutch banks have 650 billion euros on outstanding mortgages.
Dutch real-estate prices continue to tank.
tic toc tik tok ABN to Cut 400 Jobs After First-Quarter Profit Drops 17%
love those "customers with increased risk awareness": "House prices have plunged by about 20 percent since 2008. They might not start to recover until 2014, according to ABN Amro estimates. Mortgage lending by Dutch banks is equivalent to about 90 percent of the country’s economy, double the average in the euro area, the central bank said in April.
ABN Amro had 153 billion euros in mortgage loans in the first quarter, with an average loan-to-value ratio of 82 percent. That was unchanged from year-end as the declining house prices were offset by additional repayments by customers with increased risk awareness. Loans exceeded property values in 21 percent of the outstanding mortgage values as of March 31, ABN Amro said."
-
Maybe Holland is the stilt that when it finally breaks it pulls and shreds the Eu and euro apart IF only the customers with increased risk awareness pulled their deposit accounts out of their banks before they they get the Cyprus treatment lesson
dc CB 18:15 GMT May 20, 2013
US oil:
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notice that, with the exception of Calif, the highest prices for Gas are in the "Heartland". Diesel is priced higher than gas. It's planting season in the midWest....all those tractors and trucks and pick-ups.
Almost Enron like targeting???
dc CB 17:11 GMT May 20, 2013
US oil:
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this Sunday.
According to AAA Oklahoma's gas price tracking website, on Sunday, the average price in Oklahoma City for a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline is at its highest point ever, $3.963, breaking Saturday's price of $3.952, which was also a record high.
"It appears at least part of the reason for these breathtaking price spikes is limited gas supplies caused by a couple of refineries in the upper Midwest going offline," said Mai. "But these shortages have only impacted selected locations. For example, the average price for regular gasoline in Texas today is $3.43, which is 47 cents below that of Oklahoma. And Arkansas' average today is 48 cents below Oklahoma's."
In the contiguous 48 states, six have gas price averages Sunday above $4 per gallon: Minnesota, $4.272; North Dakota, $4.204; California, $4.057; Illinois, $4.05; Nebraska, $4.031; and Iowa, $4.002.
Cambridge Joe 16:49 GMT May 20, 2013
Cable:
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Just back to the screen..... hmmmmmm... not the best entry for cable shorts...
Apologies to anyone wrong footed by my post.
london hmk 16:42 GMT May 20, 2013
KAL gold silver:
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SaR KaL 16:34 GMT May 20, 2013 - My Profile
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply
gold tgt 1250
silver 20
i just shorted a few lots on both
amazing
GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:43 GMT May 20, 2013
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Fixed Income:
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Prices in prime fixed income market end weak in Europe. Peripheral prices ending higher.
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many more chart points
