GVI Forex Blog 03:38 GMT June 19, 2013  - My Profile Reply   
Divergent moves in Equities. But not very bullish overall.

Morning Briefing : 19-Jun-2013 -0336 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:15 GMT June 19, 2013
Jun 19, 2013 : Dollar rises against yen ahead of Fed rate decision: Reply   
Market Review - 18/06/2013 22:24GMT

Dollar rises against yen ahead of Fed rate decision

The greenback strengthened against the Japanese yen on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday as traders bet the central bank may imply it will soon reduce its bond buying program.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback edged higher in Asian morning on dollar's broad-based strength and rose above Monday's top at 95.22 to 95.44 in European session. U.S. CPI and housing data supported the pair and price climbed to 95.77 in New York morning before retreating to 95.05 in U.S. afternoon.

U.S. CPI in May came in at 0.1% m/m and 1.4% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.2% and 1.4% respectively. U.S. housing starts number in May was 0.914M, less than the expectation of 0.950M. Building permits in May came in at 0.974M, versus the forecast of 0.975M.

The single currency went through a roller-coaster session on Tuesday. Although euro edged lower from Monday's top at 1.3382 in Asia and fell sharply to an intra-day low of 1.3325 in European morning after the dovish comments from ECB's Draghi, cross buying of euro versus other currencies pushed the pair to 1.3399 but failure to penetrate option barrier at 1.3400 prompted profit-taking and price retreated to 1.3338 in New York morning. However, renewed buying interest emerged and the pair penetrated 1.3400 to a 4-month top at 1.3416 before stabilizing in U.S. afternoon.

ECB's President Draghi said 'do not think materially challenged in ability to deliver price stability by low level of interest rate; euro zone economy still in phase of adjustment; recent survey data suggest some improvement, but from low levels; monetary policy has regained sterling positive development.'

Earlier in European morning, the single currency was supported after the release of German ZEW economic sentiment and current condition, which came in at 38.5 and 8.6, versus the forecast of 38.1 and 9.5.

The British pound edged lower in Asia and dropped below Monday's low at 1.5680 to 1.5663 in European morning due to cross selling of sterling versus euro. Later, despite brief bounce to 1.5709 after the release of U.K. economic data, the selloff of eur/gbp sent the pair further lower to 1.5565 in New York morning before staging a strong recovery to 1.5656 in U.S. afternoon on short-covering.

U.K. CPI in May came in at 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y, higher than the forecast of 0.1% and 2.6% respectively. U.K. RPI in May came in at 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y, same as the expectation. U.K. ONS house price in April was released at 2.6% y/y, higher than the expectation of 2.5%.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

New Zealand current account, Australia Westpac leading economic indicator, Japan export, import, trade balance, U.K. BOE MPC vote, Swiss ZEW index, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. rate decision.

dc CB 22:37 GMT June 18, 2013
United States: Reply   
link

SEC Uses HFT Firm-Designed Tool To Find That HFT Doesn't Cause Flash Crashes

dc CB 22:36 GMT June 18, 2013
United States: Reply   
Joe.
________________________________________

But just how did the SEC come up with this startling conclusion which flies in the fact of all the factual evidence we have presented over the past 3 years?

""Berman heads up a new initiative at the SEC that analyzes market data using a platform launched in January called Market Information Data Analytics System, or MIDAS, which was developed by Red Bank, New Jersey-based automated trading firm Tradeworx.""


So, to summarize, the SEC which admits it was clueless in analyzing the modern, fragmented market (yet which found definitively that the culprit for the May 2010 flash crash was Waddell and Reed, and nobody else, using what technology at the time, nobody knows), uses a platform developed by High Frequency Trading firm Tradeworx... to reach a conclusion that High Frequency Trading firms are innocent of every flash crash resulting from an HFT algo gone haywire...

That sound, dear reader, is your head just going splat.

dc CB 22:27 GMT June 18, 2013
United States: Reply   


But this is the SEC. This is Mary Jo White's SEC....the New Cop on Wall Street. The one who busted Mafia bosses.

It must be true. There are no algos.

Cambridge Joe 22:09 GMT June 18, 2013
United States: Reply   
Dillon Al

Berman knows not about which he spouts

Thank you for much needed clarification. Too much heed is paid to people whose job it is to 'say something'.

If in doubt... hold a press conference !

Dillon AL 22:04 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
United States: Reply   
Berman knows not about which he spouts
EG: " portfolio managers accidentally requesting a large order be immediately executed"... Now I wonder how that conversation goes cos that order is NEVER accidental
EG: The flash crash occurred because the Algo was overwhelmed and then put its hands in its pockets. (IE did not answer the phone...... for those that try to get through to their broker in a fast market they know this one well or in Futures terms the local put his hands down)
Anyone who wants a link to the Flash Crash lost 13+ minutes contact me through the GV Profile link

Mtl JP 22:02 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile Reply   
at risk of repeat: Obama Says Bernanke Has Been at Fed ‘Longer Than He Wanted’ bbrg

Ben is as good as gone.. poof.
-
Stanley Fischer to step down early from Bank of Israel ... - Haaretz 29, 2013 - Fischer was the thesis adviser of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a former teacher of European Central Bank Governor Mario...

Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer doesn’t rule out taking top job at U.S. Fed

...“When I first entered the job market, a professor said to us ‘never accept a job offer that you haven’t been given.’ I haven’t been given any job offer. I’m not about to accept it. I’m certainly not about to reject it because it doesn’t exist,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “No, I don’t want to retire. I won’t retire. We’ll see what happens next.” ...

Fischer coming fix what Ben has screwed ?

Cambridge Joe 21:53 GMT June 18, 2013
United States: Reply   
CB you listen to Reuters ? Why ?

Mtl JP 21:45 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile Reply   
amazing Westpac crystalball insight about what the market will do for "days and months" about some character called Ben, who according to 0, has "stayed on longer than he wanted" when market has the attentionspan measured in the half-life of a fruitfly.

Wetspac talks about "core CPI ... annual rate at 1.7%". WSJ Jakab in Tame CPI Could Create Quandary for Fed says "Fed’s preferred PCE measure is at 1.05%"

dc CB 21:40 GMT June 18, 2013
United States: Reply   
(Reuters) - Unexplained rapid price drops in single stocks have generally been triggered by human error, not nefarious trading activity or high-speed trading algorithms gone wild, an official at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Tuesday.

Last month trades in American Electric Power Inc and NextEra Energy Inc plunged more than 50 percent in the first minute of trading. Days earlier trades in Anadarko Petroleum Corp were canceled after a trading blip briefly cut the company's market value by 99 percent. And in April, shares of Symantec Corp fell 10 percent in just seconds before being halted.

These rapid price drops are some of the latest examples of "mini flash crashes," named in reference to the May 6, 2010, "flash crash" when $1 trillion in shareholder equity was briefly wiped out of the market in a matter of minutes.

A popular narrative has emerged that these incidents are symptomatic of a broken market where high-speed traders run amok, but the evidence shows that is not the case, said Greg Berman, associate director of the office of analytics and research in the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets.

"What we are seeing is the result of sloppiness, combined with a lack of checks and balances," Berman said at a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association conference. "In this day and age, there should be no excuse for these types of mistakes, especially considering the significant negative impact that these events have on investor confidence."

Most rapid price spikes are caused by old fashioned human mistakes, such as "fat finger" errors, where a trader may accidentally add an extra zero to an order, or by portfolio managers accidentally requesting a large order be immediately executed rather than meted out in a managed flow, Berman said.

"Contrary to public speculation, these types of events do not seem to triggered by proprietary high-speed algorithms, by robots gone wild, or by excessive order cancellations."

Mini flash crashes caused by sloppiness, not a broken market -SEC

Mtl JP 21:29 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
United States: Reply   
for who dc CB ? earlier smart types started to hoard crude to sell in the future. interest is still only lowly 2.barely20% to blow up the hoarding trade

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 21:28 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Calendar : Reply   


June 18, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, June 19. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- Fed Decision. Bernanke Press Conference

• Far East: CN- HSBC flash PMI.
• Europe: GB- BOE Minutes.
• North America: US- Mortgage Statistics, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision, Bernanke Press Conference.


Direct links to primary data sources

dc CB 21:25 GMT June 18, 2013
United States: Reply   


This will not end well

Cambridge Joe 21:21 GMT June 18, 2013
eur/usd: Reply   
It's come back to me now. We used to say of their less dire signals..... Ahh.... that's MUCH less disappointing !

LOL ! for real !

GVI Forex Blog 20:49 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile Reply   
Event risk today: The FOMC announcement (Thu 6:00 NZT) will be the day’s (and month’s) market highlight. It will be scrutinised for any signs of a shift towards a tapering of QE, the Bernanke press conference plus the Fed’s economic forecasts the most obvious signposts. Before that, in NZ there’s the Q1 current account to watch this morning, plus the NZDMO’s announcement of the NZGB tender program for the coming quarter. Australia has a couple of leading indices.

Forex - Westpac Morning Report

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:33 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
United States: Reply   

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:29 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Mixed German ZEW. U.K. inflation elevated. Fed Wednesday: Reply   

• HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- Fed Decision. Bernanke Press Conference
  
• Weaker than expected  U.S. housing data were a weight on the USD. from the U.S. Tuesday.
• The Fed policy decision and Bernanke press conference on Wednesday will be major events this week. Its not 100% certain, but Fed reporter Jon Hilsenrath, who can be a mouthpiece of the Fed,  told the markets last week  not to expect much.
  
• Odds are the Bernanke press conference will be the most significant part of the Fed meeting, with the odds strongly favoring no policy changes. Note in the latest week that U.S. economic data has generally not showed much improvement.  .
• June German ZEW survey data were mixed. Many view it as a precursor of the respected IFO Survey in about a week.. 
  
• U.K. inflation data generally were higher than hoped for. They should keep the BOE on the defensive.
• FT ran a story Monday indicating in their opinion the Fed could be more hawkish than expected. This was not a leak.
  

GVI Forex Blog 20:29 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- Fed Decision. Bernanke Press Conference Weaker than expected U.S. housing data were a weight on the USD. from the U.S. Tuesday.

Mixed German ZEW. U.K. inflation elevated. Fed Wednesday

ed kw 20:20 GMT June 18, 2013
USD/SGD: Reply   
long USD/SGD play. In my view, this is a market that is showing tremendous upside potential over the coming months, with the added bonus of a baby carry.

Cambridge Joe 20:12 GMT June 18, 2013
eur/usd: Reply   
No names no pack drill...... but a few years ago I had a free trial with a firm offering trade signals. They didn't 'do' Mondays as there might be news out over the weekend to unsettle things. They did the London session only and avoided NY because anything can happen !

They were almost always consistently useless / wrong with the occasional unsettling flash of brilliance (Luck)!

They wanted £500 per month for their rubbish and reckoned that they had well over a thousand clients. Pension funds, banks and high net worth persons.

The blind leading the blind ?

I do make errors of judgement and get things wrong.... but nothing on their scale ! :-))

Cambridge Joe 19:51 GMT June 18, 2013
eur/usd: Reply   
JP. Sorry for the delay, we just got back from a walk with the dogs to the burial-ground in remembrance of a dear departed one. A beautiful summer's evening here !

OK e/$ my take is that there is an accumulation of sell, or at least not buy signals across various time-frames.

15 min no-buy 00:30 GMT
30 min no-buy 02:00 GMT
1 Hr SELL 02:00 GMT

Down-side limit, I don't really have, but seeing that it is from the hourly, that might mean 1.3 as with Raden... OR... given the frantic violent chop we have seen, it might only be good for ... well... 100... 150.. I don't know.

It will certainly meet with res around 3366 3355 3327. IF / as /when it breaks below 3310, it's got a nice way down to go. My view is, it's going there. Hence short @ 3403.

IMO. GL

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:38 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Chart Points: Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:31 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Chart Points: Reply   
Preliminary Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:48 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Trading the sup & ress. levels: Reply   
kb, you owe me an email

Mtl JP 18:42 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Global Markets News: Reply   
numbnuts Japan's Abe plans seminars to explain his economic policy

While Abe has an explicit target of achieving two per cent inflation (Japan has rarely seen much inflation, if any) it has been said that expansionary policies may be wound down if other economic indicators improve.

Abe will be at London's Guildhall on Wednesday to discuss Japan's economic policy following the G8 summit.
-
Japan encouraged by Group of 8 stance on ‘Abenomics’

JERUSALEM kb 18:27 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Trading the sup & ress. levels: Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3305 Target: 1.3610 Stop: 1.3350

JERUSALEM KB 18:59:13 GMT - 06/11/2013

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3305 Target: 1.3470 Stop: 1.3230
bought
-----------
out of 1/2 with 100pips +
sl at 1.3350

Mtl JP 17:53 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
eur/usd: Reply   
Cambridge Joe 16:21 outside of market going after 1.34 in some cat n mouse chase n tag game euro is UP because Draghi sounded bubbly and green-shooty
-
what is "significantly" numero-wise ? tia

Mtl JP 17:39 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Cyprussed: Reply   
The Co-operative Bank bail-in means little – we need real mutuals - The Guardian
The Co-operative Group has announced that owners of bonds in its banking subsidiary will be forced to swap them for newly issued shares traded on the stock exchange, taking a substantial loss in the process. ../..
-
Danske Bank Told to Boost Risk-Weighted Assets by $18 Bln
Bloomberg
Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE), Denmark's biggest lender, was ordered by the country's financial watchdog to revise an internal model after underestimating risky assets. Danske fell as much as 8 percent in Copenhagen trading after the Financial Supervisory .../..

Cambridge Joe 16:21 GMT June 18, 2013
eur/usd: Reply   
Thanks for the heads up Raden.

Looks like early Asia sees e/$ significantly south-bound.

I've been too caught up in the blender to look.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:11 GMT June 18, 2013
eur/usd: Reply   
will not admire if in several days later euro/usd drop till 1.3000
come on !!!!!!

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:57 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Fixed Income: Reply   
Prices in prime fixed income prices mostly down late in Europe. Prices in periphery are better.

GVI Forex 15:30 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Global Markets News: Reply   
Heightened volatility is again the order of the day as the FOMC convenes in Washington, DC for a two-day meeting. The DJIA has seen five straight days of triple-digit moves, for a level of volatility not seen since Fall 2011. As of writing, the DJIA is +0.63%

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: FOMC Meeting Begins

GVI Forex Blog 15:24 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile Reply   
June 18, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, June 19. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- Fed Decision. Bernanke Press Conference

GVI Forex Data Outlook for 19 June 2013

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:22 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
Calendar : Reply   


June 18, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, June 19. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, GB- BOE Minutes, US- Fed Decision. Bernanke Press Conference

• Far East: CN- HSBC flash PMI.
• Europe: GB- BOE Minutes.
• North America: US- Mortgage Statistics, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision, Bernanke Press Conference.


Direct links to primary data sources

jkt acce 14:34 GMT June 18, 2013
sell usd : Reply   
Sell USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

sold usdchf 0.9203 as well, stop 0.9271, target open for tomorrow's action

Amman wfakhoury 14:32 GMT June 18, 2013
EURJPY 128.00: Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 12:35 GMT June 18, 2013
EURJPY 127.75: Reply
EURJPY reached 127.75 as per my signal.
still possible to reach 128.00
if price breaks 127.81 and keep above it


-----------it is now 128.00..and will continue to 128.50 if keeps above 128.00

jkt acce 14:30 GMT June 18, 2013
sell usd : Reply   
Sell USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

short usdcad 1.0203 stop 1.0241, target open

chios db 13:19 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
trades today : Reply   
closed eurjpy
stopped on eurusd
waiting to be stopped on gbpjpy

Amman wfakhoury 13:16 GMT June 18, 2013
GBPUSD 15642: Reply   
PT JR 13:00 GMT June 18, 2013
GBPUSD 15642: Reply
...BEST DAY TRADER IN THE FORUM..THANK U


-------------
Thank you..you are welcome

PT JR 13:01 GMT June 18, 2013
GBPUSD 15642: Reply   
Amman wfakhoury ..T U

PT JR 13:00 GMT June 18, 2013
GBPUSD 15642: Reply   
...BEST DAY TRADER IN THE FORUM..THANK U

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:53 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
United States: Reply   


U.S. CPI in target range

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:43 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
United States: Reply   


New Homes Sales, Starts and Permits mixed. Stalling?

SaR KaL 12:39 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply   
selling USDJPY

One week Trade Sell Above 92.5699
tgt 87.00 next week
day trade entries
95.5907 93.2131
95.7478 93.0225
95.8525 92.8955
95.9573 92.7685
96.1144 92.5779
96.6381 91.9428

Amman wfakhoury 12:35 GMT June 18, 2013
EURJPY 127.75: Reply   
EURJPY reached 127.75 as per my signal.
still possible to reach 128.00
if price breaks 127.81 and keep above it

SaR KaL 12:33 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply   
GBPJPY shorts
149.4260 147.4530
150.2568 146.5745
150.5060 146.3109
150.6722 146.1352
150.8383 145.9595
151.0876 145.6959
151.9183 144.8173

143 next week baby

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:32 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
United States: Reply   

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:31 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
United States: Reply   

SaR KaL 12:30 GMT June 18, 2013  - My Profile
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply   
this going to be bad day for many