Hong Kong AceTrader 02:47 GMT May 22, 2013
Dollar retreats broadly on Fed Bullard's comments : May 22, 2013:
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Market Review - 21/05/2013 21:50GMT
Dollar retreats broadly on Fed Bullard's comments
The greenback pared early gains against majority of its peers ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony in Congress on Wednesday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard dented hopes that the Fed might taper its bond purchases anytime soon.
Fed's Bullard said 'asset buying is best policy option for central banks when interest rates near zero; Fed should continue QE, adjusting pace of bond buying according of incoming data.'
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rallied at Asian open and rose to 102.76 in Asian morning after Japan Economy Minister Akira Amari clarified his weekend's comments regarding the yen's recent weakness. Dollar continued to trade with firm undertone and climbed to an intra-day high at 102.89 ahead of New York open. However, dollar pared intra-day gains and tumbled to 102.25 in New York afternoon after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should continue buying bonds because it's the best available option to boost growth that is slower than expected.
Japan's Amari said 'hope fx market can strike balance between impact on imports n exports; no comment on whether correction in excessive yen strength is over; hope fx market settles at a level in line with economic fundamentals.'
Although the single currency dropped sharply to 1.2863 in early Asian morning, price rebounded to 1.2902 at European open. However, euro met renewed selling there and dropped to session low at 1.2841 ahead of European open before rallying in New York morning on dollar's strength following comments from Fed's Bullard. Price eventually rose to an intra-day high at 1.2934 in New York afternoon before easing.
Although the British pound came under selling pressure at Asian open and dropped to 1.5221 in Asian morning, price recovered to 1.5263 at European open. However, cable met renewed selling there and tumbled in European morning after a government report showed inflation slowed more than economists forecast, giving the central bank more room to boost stimulus that tends to weaken a currency. Price continued to ratchet lower and hit an intra-day low at 1.5113 in New York morning. Later, the pound pared intra-day losses and rebounded strongly to 1.5180 in New York afternoon on dollar's weakness before stabilising.
U.K. CPI in April came in at 0.2% m/m n 2.4% y/y, lower than the forecast of 0.4% n 2.4% respectively.
In other news, ECB's Liikanen said 'ECB measures have helped narrow bond spread; ECB measures have credibility.'
On the data front, German PPI in April came in at -0.2% m/m n 0.1% y/y, vs the expectation of -0.1% n 0.2% respectively.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer confidence, Japan trade balance, export, import, BoJ rate decision, EU current account, UK BoE meeting minutes, PS net borrowing, CBI industrial trend, Canada retail sales and U.S. existing home sales.
manila tom 23:59 GMT May 21, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
:
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Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
so far so good Dr. Qindex, once it stabilises above 1.2928 then we should see 1.2970-80 soon and even 1.3020 by friday, cheers
GVI Forex Inner Circle 21:26 GMT May 21, 2013
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Calendar :
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May 21, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 22.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- BOJ, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, Bernanke, Existing Homes Sales, Fed Minutes.
- Far East: JP- BOJ.
- Europe: EZ- Current Account, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, CBI Trends.
- North America: US- Bernanke Testimony, Existing Homes Sales, Weekly Crude. Fed Minutes.
Direct links to primary data sources
Livingston nh 21:14 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar:
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Biggest risk w/ Ben is the potential disagreement among his fellows - he is a "lame duck" - money must move to be effective and some folks think Ben too concerned w/ bank stability
GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:42 GMT May 21, 2013
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UK CPI & RPI weighs on GBP. Bernanke and BOJ Wednesday:
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- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: JP- BOJ, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, Bernanke,
Existing Homes Sales, Fed Minutes
- Wednesday will see the
minutes from the latest Fed Meeting (May 1) and testimony by Chairman
Bernanke to the House. This testimony will give him ample opportunity
to signal to the markets what the current intentions of the central
bank may be. Fed speakers recently have been
leaning in favor of a start to tapering bond purchases.
- U.K. inflation data released
Tuesday were softer than expected but still above BOE target. The GBP
fell on the news.
- USDJPY traded steady
after the Japanese Economics Minister backed off expressions of
satisfaction with the current value of the JPY. The Nikkei gained and
10-yr JGB yields were
higher. A BOJ decision is due on Wednesday. No change in policy is
expected.
- Thursday sees a number of flash
PMI reports U.K. data could also influence the GBP The critical
German IFO Survey is due on Friday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3013
|
JGB
0.87% +3bp
|
Asia:Mixed
|
USDJPY
100.13
|
Bund
1.37% +2bp
|
Europe
Higher
|
EURJPY
130.30
|
U.S.1.94%
-2bp
|
U.S.:Higher
|
GVI Forex Blog 20:40 GMT May 21, 2013
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HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- BOJ, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, Bernanke, Existing Homes Sales, Fed Minutes
Wednesday will see the minutes from the latest Fed Meeting (May 1) and testimony by Chairman Bernanke to the House. This testimony will give him ample opportunity to signal to the markets what the current intentions of the central bank may be. Fed speakers recently have been leaning in favor of a start to tapering bond purchases.
UK CPI & RPI weighs on GBP. Bernanke and BOJ Wednesday
GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:31 GMT May 21, 2013
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United States:
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-- ALERT --
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +0.500 vs. 0 exp vs. -0.625 prev.
Gasoline: +3.000 vs. -0.5 exp vs. +2.600 prev.
Distillates:+0.460 vs. -0.5 exp vs. +2.300 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.8% vs. n/a exp. vs. 88.0% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
PAR 18:04 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple:
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It is not only Apple .
However, corporate taxes as a percentage of government receipts are at an all-time low:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/two-charts-corporate-tax-avoidance-revenue-offshore-2013-5#ixzz2Tx3iDylq
Livingston nh 17:50 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple:
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Maybe just let the banks fend for themselves --
PAR 17:47 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple:
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Next time Ireland faces a banking crisis they could ask Apple for help instead of poor Irish people and European taxpayers . LoL
Livingston nh 17:29 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar:
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ab - my thought is rates influence the USD (and world rates??) - gold is selling off since April // Fed has to control rates - if it stops buying treasuries it is forfeiting control to the market - ergo it has to hike but keep buying
hk ab 17:24 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar:
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even yen rate was kept at 0.00 for so long, it had been staying in the 70-80 region for so long as well.....
hk ab 17:23 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar:
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nh, they can still buy gold on eur and jpy if they want to push.....imvho
Livingston nh 17:17 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar:
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what if the Fed raises rates and continues to buy treasuries? gold isn't money but it is sensitive to rates
GVI Forex 17:14 GMT May 21, 2013
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Prelude to Bernanke?:
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FED: FRBNY Pres Dudley remains dovish. He talks of adjusting QE up or down, unsure of which way next, but warns of mkts overreacting to taper and posits Fed might want to hold, not sell, MBS to prevent a rate rise. He says Jun'11 exit advisory is dated and Fed should update thinking on bal sheet, possibly with eye on how to "mitigate potential costs and risks." Says FOMC "could decide to indicate that it will avoid selling the MBS portfolio" during early stage of normalization or perhaps not sell MBS at all to avoid a sharp increase in long rates. Challenge will be getting "the initial tightening of financial market conditions... commensurate to what we desire. There is a risk is that market participants could overreact" or move too fast. That would threaten fin'l stability, also "make it harder to calibrate mon policy appropriately." He wants QE "to respond flexibly to a changing econ outlook," but not disrupt the economy. "Based on what we have learned to date at the zero bound, I believe that it will be important for us to anchor all communication" around Fed's core principles of getting a better econ and low infl.
MNI
HK Kevin 17:10 GMT May 21, 2013
Sell EUR/USD:
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Limit sell order 1.2930 executed. Next added level at 1.2980. Overall stop at 1.3060, t/p 1.2780
Cambridge Joe 16:39 GMT May 21, 2013
trading:
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I've got a window abt 45 Mins out and appr 45 mins wide shoukld see softer e/$... for a start.
IMO. GL
Cambridge Joe 16:35 GMT May 21, 2013
trading:
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I've got e/$ looking like it's to drop into Asia. Pick your time..!
A violent seesaw.
IMO. GL
PAR 16:22 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar:
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Dollar weaker as Bernanke will keep printing dollars as never before .
Cambridge Joe 16:02 GMT May 21, 2013
trading:
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as long as stops are above 53.... should hang in there... ?
GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:46 GMT May 21, 2013
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Fixed Income:
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Major bond market prices mostly weaker. Peripheral prices mixed.
Miami JN 15:33 GMT May 21, 2013
trading:
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What happened to eur????
London Chris 15:09 GMT May 21, 2013
trading:
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Is anyone trading or are we all waiting for tomorrow's Bernanke fireworks?
london red 13:46 GMT May 21, 2013
GBPUSD:
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to clarify; ready to nail gbp vs euro. cable is another matter with dollar side the focus.
london red 13:41 GMT May 21, 2013
GBPUSD:
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first couple of rebounds off trendline were tradable, but since 8500 taken looks like 200 week will come into play at 8517. i wouldnt stand in the way of that if broken convincingly but you have to wonder if market is ready to nail gbp with minutes tomorrow. thats enough to allow me to let any upside run. as always there will be plenty of chances to get on board without such issues.
Cambridge Joe 13:35 GMT May 21, 2013
GBPUSD:
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I'm getting firmer Cable ... worth guarding your shorts !
NY JM 13:16 GMT May 21, 2013
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GBPUSD:
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1.5034 is next key support on daily chart -- so no obvious stops below the market.
As red pointed out, eurgbp .8500 is more of the focus
Cambridge Joe 13:00 GMT May 21, 2013
USDMXN:
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$/MXN : Nice down move lurking about 10 mins out from here.
IMO. GL (softer)
SaR KaL 11:49 GMT May 21, 2013
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Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply:
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if and only if?...No?
not done dat for a while
ok
if and only if GBPNZD does not go above 1.88 within the next 15 hrs...I will do the following;
1) Head down to Mali...dive with tiger sharks all night...then come back and have Rice cockroaches for dinner.
2) Fly over to Sierra and call the president an azz on National TV.
3) Take flight all the way to north Korea...and tell everyone I hate Garlic.
End if
SaR KaL 10:46 GMT May 21, 2013
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Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply:
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Purk
Just where it can not go...Rather then where it will
if it did it fast enough... i will get out
gbpnzd and gbpaud
are very much near the point of no return
if one longs and goes his way
then we wont see these levels again for at least 3 weeks
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