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19/04/15 21:45 A SUNDAY con: pre:
19/04/15 21:45 A NZ CPI qq con: n/a pre: -0.20%
19/04/15 21:45 A NZ CPI yy con: n/a pre: n/a
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Don't Fight the Central Banks!
nw kw 14:57 GMT 04/18/2015
How money is created,whear does it come from,Who benefits.

Don't Fight the Central Banks!
Mtl JP 14:28 GMT 04/18/2015  - My Profile
Fed controls the cost of money.
To have a meaningful discussion about that
We would first need to define "normal(ization) interest rate".
I suggest: Interest rate equal to that of GDP growth rate.

It is noteworthy that the current gang of PhD's keeps trying to keep our focus pinned on what they call "inflation" rate and NOT GDP growth rate. You will want to note that interest rate rises based on inflation are not the same as those based on GDP growth rate.

The claim that the "Fed controls the cost of money" is disputable to the extent that it does not dare to hike them for fear of imploding the bond market when just the floating of the rate hike suggestion is causing wobbles and reverbs, let alone hiking even by 0.1%.

How is painted in a corner of inaction out of fear equal to "control the cost of money" ?

Don't Fight the Central Banks!
GVI Forex john 10:55 GMT 04/18/2015  - My Profile

by John M. Bland

Forex Market Manipulation
Supposedly we are in an era of "freely-floating exchange rates", but it seems that Forex markets are anything but freely floating. Exchange rate policy often falls under the purview of governments and/or central banks. They are strongly influenced by monetary policy as well. There is a saying in the financial markets: "Don't Fight the Fed". That is because finance is all about money flows and the Fed controls the cost of money.

Don't Fight the Central Banks!

CHART POINTS: Average Daily Pip Ranges
GVI Forex john 10:44 GMT 04/18/2015  - My Profile
In tables below note how average ranges over the past 10days compare to those in 1Q15.

CHART POINTS: Average Daily Pip Ranges
GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT 04/18/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:33 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
As opposed to the EURUSD below, USDJPY positions had already been reduced nearly to zero, so stops have not been a major issue in the pair this week. USDJPY is range-bound.

Click on chart for JPY COT Details

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:30 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
COT data as of Tuesday's close. AS the EUR started to correct, EURUSD shorts fell modestly. I expect to see that EURUSD shorts will have fallen significantly in a weeks time. As the oversold condition of the market gets reduced the power of upside stops is diminished as well.

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:24 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Mtl JP 19:57 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
IOU's ... not so original idea afterall

ECB examines possibility of Greek IOU currency in case of default - sources
In fact a competing ccy system could be an exercise in democracy

The Penny Stock Chronicles
dc CB 19:51 GMT 04/17/2015
the 2:15 Index Express left the station right on time.
Will it return to the station? or is it good for another 100 pts all the way to Croton-Harmon.

Dow futures bottomed at 17666...that 666 number again.

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex john 19:48 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

london red 19:43 GMT 04/17/2015
that fib at 10833, might get the chasers going if broken at this late stage. to 73.
JP, ecb adverse scenarios group apparently. dont know whats worse, the idea of these ious or the fact the ecb has a building with a 100+ folk contemplating and trying to solve adverse scenarios. where do i sign up?

Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Mtl JP 19:28 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
red that is a grand idea
maybe the Greek can pay his bureaucrats and pensioners thusly
as an experiment

london red 19:20 GMT 04/17/2015
IOUs. thats what we used to do when we played monopoly. when we ran out of money. as kids.

Mtl JP 19:11 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
so now Osborne is screaming blue murder about Moscovici's May deadline to the Greek

I guess those who do loud(est) squealing are ones who have lots to lose should the Greek repudiate ?

ECB 19:05 GMT 04/17/2015
Lots of confetti .

Mtl JP 19:00 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
well well well ... finally a Babson Break manifesting in person
Athens Stock Exchange General Index
ASE:IND 729.81 22.56 -3.00%

dc CB 18:48 GMT 04/17/2015

Mario and some other gang members are in Washington this week-end at some party.

party on dude

Mtl JP 18:37 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
PAR 22:21 GMT April 16, 2015 ECB buying negatively yielding bonds unconstitutional. It is government financing pure sang. Draghi may go to jail for braking the rules
Maybe this will inspire you to ape-act : Judge says Brooklyn woman can use Facebook to serve divorce papers and try to serve your nemesis

Mario and some other gang members are in Washington this week-end at some party.

The Penny Stock Chronicles
dc CB 18:30 GMT 04/17/2015
Pump Dump Pump

Virtu makes it another winning day

TBond June

USDJPY at 105
Paris ib 18:15 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
Hamada wasn't kidding.

The Interview

DAX outside week down
london red 18:14 GMT 04/17/2015
JP, if closes at lows on a longer than average daily candle and trades lower from the start then, unless its to go another 2 or more % on monday, you should expect it to trade within the prev days bar to some extent say minimum 20% of fridays range. normally you can buy that initial dip, you'll only be wrong if its going to be another crash day. they often take it a little lower first thing, see if theres momentum, if not itll retrace a bit and wait for more direction. but if on monday it closes down its likely to be more than todays loss.

PAR 18:13 GMT 04/17/2015
Germany Rebuts Lew-Bernanke Criticism of Current Account Surplus

The leaders of Germany’s economy fired back at U.S. criticism of their swelling current-account surplus, arguing it reflects the strength of their companies and the weakness of the euro rather than a lack of domestic demand.

“It would be absurd to discuss whether German competitiveness should be reduced to narrow the current-account surplus,” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in Washington on Friday.

Paris ib 18:11 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
Correction under way. More to come. Seat belts people.

Password for da old
SaaR KaL 18:06 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
why not use a password that the system will always tell you what it is if you are wrong?;

Your password is; "incorrect"...

DAX outside week down
Mtl JP 18:05 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
DAX trading hours
Mon - Fri 06:00GMT - 20:00GMT
is that so ?
IF DAX closes down on its lows on Friday (I am seeing it off -2.9-ish% on the day), odds are for a down Monday ?

GVI Forex john 17:48 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
follow- up on the 100 hr vs 200hr moving averages
100hr 1.0670
200hr 1.0689

they appear to be slated for a cross-over in the low 1.0690's early next week unless spot prices start to move faster, or stop rising.

Mtl JP 17:47 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
0 , leader of the indispensable nation and presiding over national debt recently having topped $18 trillion, dispensing directives to the Greek
- enact structural reforms
- improve its tax collection
- reduce bureaucracy and
- enact more flexible labor practices

GVI Forex john 17:34 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
Global-View Week ahead Planning Guide for Trading

ECB monetary Policy has been locked in until well into 2016. It increasingly has been resulting in negative interest rates well out the curve. They will be a chronic weight on the EUR until this policy can be lifted. The falling 2-yr German schatz is a manifestation of that policy.

Fed policy signals have been mixed. In sum, the Fed is preparing the markets for an eventual slight increase in the Fed Funds target, but is assuring markets that any policy tightening will be extremely gradual. U.S. economic indicators remain mixed.

The first half of the upcoming week is a mixed one for data.

Monday, April 20 sees the New Zealand quarterly CPI release.

Tuesday, April 21 sees the German ZEW Survey. This is often used as a predictor of the IFO Survey due on Friday.

German ZEW Survey. Mixed, Expectations below Conditions.

On Wednesday April 22, quarterly Australian CPI data will be closely watched. U.S. Existing Homes Sales later that day is the most important U.S. Housing statistic.

Stocks Dumped as China Changes the Rules
Paris ib 17:24 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
New York Times is going with 'it's all over in China'.

Latest Victim of Chinese Bubble

TIC data for February 2015
nw kw 17:19 GMT 04/17/2015
s&P is in 20 year bull run,might be off his rocker or not

Stocks Dumped as China Changes the Rules
Paris ib 17:19 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
"the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a seven-year high on Friday"....the new rules announced "immediately caused Chinese stock market futures to crash by 6%. A similar move in U.S. markets would be a 1,000 point crash in the Dow"

An overview worth a look

TIC data for February 2015
GVI Forex john 17:17 GMT 04/17/2015
9-yr was negative at one point but ended slightly positive. It is just a matter of time until yields on 9s and 10s flip negative.

TIC data for February 2015
Mtl JP 17:17 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
Fick die Henne - 0.07% for ten years

TIC data for February 2015
Paris ib 17:12 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
See for yourself.

German bond yields

TIC data for February 2015
Mtl JP 17:09 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
someone is telling me German 9 yr bunds already negative yield
only 10-yr missing apparently

TIC data for February 2015
nw kw 17:07 GMT 04/17/2015
bubble will not end until det is not cheap 5 years or so or 10/ usd 30y t bond looks bad

DAX outside week down
Mtl JP 17:05 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
ib 16:58 with that view u talk yourself out of a 200/300K+ benefits PhD job at a CB lol

GVI Forex john 16:59 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT)

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar for key items, such as consensus estimates, previous data and links to charts of recent data).

DAX outside week down
Paris ib 16:58 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
JP - I do not think that is what happened. All that happened is that a fall in yields of massive proportions has forced people to search for returns elsewhere. We have a bubble not a boom.

Mtl JP 16:54 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
Moscovici warns Greece to agree reforms - FT
"We've got two meetings which are important. The April 24 meeting in Riga must not be a wasted moment; it must be a useful moment in which we see concrete progress in catching up with those reforms, and then the next meeting on May 11, which certainly must be decisive," .../..
does not look like we have the makings for a late afternoon trade
thanks for nothing Pierre

Week Ahead
GVI Forex Blog 16:54 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
•In a light data week, concerns about Greece will be at the forefront of market attention •Despite Greek event risk, Eurozone activity data are expected to continue to firm •UK retail sales and MPC minutes take on labour market trends the key domestic focus


Stocks Dumped as China Changes the Rules
nw kw 16:54 GMT 04/17/2015
keep them from going offshore /not to aud homes ec.

DAX outside week down
Mtl JP 16:46 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
ib 16:12 re "we are on the cusp of an economic boom of enormous proportions (unlikely) - or that stocks are completely out of sync with economic reality and vulnerable to selling pressure"
IF you changed it around to "stocks are completely out of sync with economic reality and vulnerable to selling pressure -> we are on the cusp of an economic boom of enormous proportions" you might get around to the idea that selling (cashing stocks that have run uP in price because of the earlier printed and delivered "money") puts money into folks' pockets (a transmission mechanism) with which to go out and make some purchases thereby helping make the wheels of economy turn.

See ?

TIC data for February 2015
Paris ib 16:40 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
As the U.S. stock market takes a hit the U.S. bond market is FAILING to rally. What a situation. Are we simply in a bubble of ALL financial assets thanks to money printing. The answer seems to be yes.

Stocks Dumped as China Changes the Rules
Paris ib 16:38 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
So now they panic sell.

"relatively inexperienced retail investors are driving the rally"

Who's buying Chinese stocks?

Next week
SaaR KaL 16:29 GMT 04/17/2015  - My Profile
EURUSD...hits 1.04 area ---> Means a disaster
a sell into next year

Stocks Dumped as China Changes the Rules
nw kw 16:24 GMT 04/17/2015
ya right in new year thy went all in// nut ball trading

DAX outside week down
nw kw 16:19 GMT 04/17/2015
might be CB"s slowing the pace, something changed how has power

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