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FOREX FORUM
03/09/14 7:50 B FR SVC PMI final con: 51.1 pre: 51.1
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GVI Forex Blog 05:55 GMT 09/03/2014  - My Profile
- (CN) CHINA AUG HSBC SERVICES PMI: 54.1 V 50.0 PRIOR (17-month high) - (CN) CHINA AUG NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.4 V 54.2 PRIOR (first increase in 3 months) - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.4%E;

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Australia GDP slows but tops consensus; China services PMI recovers from record lows - Source TradeTheNews.com


Day's Trades
tokyo ginko 04:17 GMT 09/03/2014
close all usd/jpy position 105.25

will look to reenter again usd/jpy ...

GT all!

GVI Forex Blog 03:51 GMT 09/03/2014  - My Profile
The US equity markets ignored the strong Manufacturing data and went nowhere. Ignoring

Morning Briefing : 03-Sep-2014 -0350 GMT


AceTrader Sept 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:56 GMT 09/03/2014
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

03 Sep 2014 02:34GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback continued its recent winning streak and strengthened to a fresh 8-month high of 105.27 ahead of Tokyo open on renewed broad-based selling in the yen following Tuesday's rally on market speculation Japanese PM Abe will appoint Yasuhisa Shiozaki, deputy policy chief of the LPD who may shift pension funds toward riskier assets.

Current firmness due to 130 points gain in the N225 index suggests buying dlr on dips for a re-test of 2014 peak at 105.45 is recommended. However, sharp gain is unlikely to be seen as market participants are awaiting release of a slew of U.S. data, then the U.S. Beige book later today (18:00GMT) to get a snapshot of economic health in each of the central bank's districts for hints of Fed to ending its extraordinary monetary policy and normalizing interest rate.

Bids are noted at 105.00-104.80 region, with stops below there. On the upside, offers are placed at 105.30-40 and then 105.50 with stops touted above there.

Last night the greenback rallied to a fresh 8-month high of 105.21 in NY morning after the release of much stronger-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI which came in better-than-expected at 59.0 versus economists' forecast of 56.8. However, profit-taking offers capped dlr's upside somewhat n more offers are tipped at 105.40/45. On the downside, bids are located at 105.00, 104.85-80 and more at 104.70.

Wednesday will see the release of U.K. BRC shop price index, China's NBS non-manufacturing PMI, Australia's GDP, China's HSBC services PMI, German and eurozone and U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. Redbook, ISM-New York index, Canada's rate decision, U.S. factory orders, durable goods and Fed's Beige book.

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
sd sf 01:48 GMT 09/03/2014
Data Results :

21:30 AUD High GDP (QoQ) 0.5% 0.4% 1.1%
21:30 AUD High GDP (YoY) 3.1% 3.0% 3.5%
21:45 CNY Medium HSBC Services PMI 54.1 50.0

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:23 GMT 09/03/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index rises to 14-month highs

* Yen broadly weaker, sterling also under pressure

* Euro off lows ahead of ECB policy review

FOREX-Dollar powers up as yen, sterling flag; euro off lows


Current Conditions: RISK-ON
Livingston nh 23:14 GMT 09/02/2014
John - fwiw LINK some bond thots

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
sd sf 22:49 GMT 09/02/2014
09:30 AUD Low AIG Services Index 49.3
11:00 CNY Medium Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.2
11:30 AUD High GDP (QoQ) 0.4% 1.1%
11:30 AUD High GDP (YoY) 3.0% 3.5%
11:45 CNY Medium HSBC Services PMI 50.0
12:30 HKD Low Manufacturing PMI 50.40
13:20 AUD Medium RBA Governor Stevens Speaks

Quite a bit this morning from 9.30am/1.30 pm Sydney .. applicable more for AUD or NZD Positions.

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 22:09 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile


September 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- GDP, EZ/GB- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, Factory Orders, Beige Book
  • Far East: AU- GDP
  • Europe: EZ/GB- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Factory Orders, Beige Book, API



Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 21:33 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Chatter a major player may be temporarily protecting an option at 1.3100 until is expires. Seems logical to me. We have run into a temporary stone wall at every big figure.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Indo Tony R 21:29 GMT 09/02/2014
why isn't eurusd lower?

Weekly Trading Planner
New York Calendar 21:20 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
WEDNESDAY
01:30  AU GDP Broadest growth measure
07:55  DE SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
08:28  GB SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00 CA BOC Rates No rate change seen
14:00  US Factory Orders Measure of manufacturing
18:00  FRB Beige Book Same data Fed gets
THURSDAY
01:30  AU Retail Sales Key economic metric
01:30  AU Trade A$bln  Important for growth
04:30  JP Bank of Japan No rate change seen
11:00  GB Bank of England No rate change seen
11:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank No rate chg, other ease possible
12:15  US ADP Jobs Predictor of NFP
12:30  CA Trade Important for growth
12:30  US Initial Claims Key jobs metric
12:30  US Trade  Broadest growth measure
12:30  US Productivity 2Q14p Important for growth
13:45  US Markit SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
FRIDAY
09:00  EZ GDP Broadest growth measure
12:30  CA Payrolls Key economic metric
12:30  US Payrolls Broadest employment measure

Wfakhoury's view on Gold
Amman wfakhoury 20:49 GMT 09/02/2014
We are going up 1271.00 if price keeps above 1264...if breaks down 1264 then 1250 area is coming.

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 20:49 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data. Basis previous session ranges...


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System


AUD and NZD
GVI Forex Blog 20:06 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Stronger US economic data boosted the US dollar to a fresh 14-month high. Most attention was paid to the ISM manufacturing report, which was stronger than expected, but so too was construction spending. US interest rates also rose, but equities were subdued, the S&P500 down 0.2% currently.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:56 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Close..


Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:48 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


STOX
dc CB 19:46 GMT 09/02/2014
only need to close above 2000 SnP today...if not higher.

(Gold really got creamed ...Four Jams down.)

Nanex observation:
1 out of 4 trades today is for less than 100 shares. This is a record since odd-lots began reporting Dec 2012

New predatory algo test RT @nanexllc: 2.5% of all trades today are for 1 share!

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: Data Backtests
New York GTA 19:07 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile

In our recent article Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System the author pointed to data showing how effective pivot points can be in measuring likely intra-day limits (support and resistance using data from 1999 to 2006.He shows that the number of days that the low was lower than each S1, S2 and S3 and the number of days that the high was higher than the each R1, R2 and R3.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: Data Backtests

Why the Hard Trade is Often the Rght Trade
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:58 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
LV, thanks for the feedback.

Why the Hard Trade is Often the Rght Trade
Cape Town LV 18:53 GMT 09/02/2014
Good point made in this article, thanks

Current Conditions: RISK-ON
GVI Forex john 18:30 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.414%

dead

U.S. & Canadian PMIs Improve. No RBA Policy Changes
GVI Forex Blog 18:24 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- GDP, EZ/GB- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, Factory Orders, Beige Book

On Wednesday Service PMI data are due along with a Bank of Canada policy decision and the Fed's Beige Book. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept policy steady Tuesday as expected and signaled that rates would not be changed again soon. they again expressed concerns about the high value of the exchange rate.

U.S. & Canadian PMIs Improve. No RBA Policy Changes


Current Conditions: RISK-ON?
GVI Forex john 16:12 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
Tuesday was a clear RISK-ON session until U.S. markets resumed trading after a Monday holiday. Equity trading in the States turned  cautious following last week's surge. Furthermore, September historically is the weakest month of the year for stocks. The EURUSD is still holding in range of the 1.3100 level.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 0.929%  +4.5bp. Peripheral bond yields are mostly higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.42%  +4.0bp. I see a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.405%, +6.2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe ended largely up. U.S. shares are mostly lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



Day's Trades
london red 15:28 GMT 09/02/2014
UK i tend to follow my own advice so what i write here is generally what im doing/will do. i positioned myself for a 16537 break earlier today but covered after break of 165 just abv the 55 week ma. still looking heavy maybe can do 16480/85. there is a minor fib at 16470 which will probably trigger a fall to the big 38.2 at 16435 once done. however tomorrows servs pmi could beat and give some v temporary reprieve back towards 16537 where it would be a good level to short tomorrow. pre todays panic i was looking to sell the 200 day ma but clearly this is off the table for now. a v bad nfp/negative HE are required to get those levels in play, something thats not looking likely at this stage (today ism emp a good strong print, we have a couple more to go pre nfp).
i am certainly not looking to buy cable while US rate revaluation taking place and scot ref hedging being done. i dont panic, but others do and we could easily get some deep falls in gbp related pairs.

GVI Forex Blog 15:23 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
September 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- GDP, EZ/GB- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, Factory Orders, Beige Book

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 3, 2014


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:20 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Solid US August manufacturing data is putting a bid under equity markets this morning, helping dispel the premarket swoon, while the UST 10-year yield has risen to 2.40%.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: September Begins with Positive Notes


Why the Hard Trade is Often the Rght Trade
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:17 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
SMV (and others), suggest reading this article I wrote today:

The tendency of most retail traders, not only in forex but in all markets is to look to buy low and sell high or vice versa. It may be human nature in trading to look for something that appears cheap to buy or expensive to sell but is this the right strategy? It may just be the opposite as I will explain in this very timely article.

Why the Hard Trade is Often the Rght Trade


GBP/USD
Ternopil SMV 15:14 GMT 09/02/2014
Hello everyone! any view for gbp/usd, please! is it time to try to buy this pair?

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
GVI Forex john 15:09 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile


September 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, September 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- GDP, EZ/GB- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, Factory Orders, Beige Book
  • Far East: AU- GDP
  • Europe: EZ/GB- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Factory Orders, Beige Book, API, CA- Bank of Canada policy decision



Wfakhoury's view on Gold
Central Kwun 14:55 GMT 09/02/2014
Sir Wfakhoury, any direction on gold? I want to sell again

STOX
Livingston nh 14:38 GMT 09/02/2014
Stox perhaps thinking that Goldilocks has left the building - too much good news?

Day's Trades
UK CRH 14:37 GMT 09/02/2014
red, are you ion the cable move or waiting for a buy level?

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:34 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
USDCAD JM
Yes...I want to buy it
from 1.0760 area tgt 1.11 to 1.12
Can not Buy it here

Cable yes I want to short it to 1.62 area
1.6730 area is fine to short
Not here

Day's Trades
london red 14:34 GMT 09/02/2014
cable 38.2 of 2.10/1.35 at 16435. 55 week ma at 16994 pierced but may hamper trading. sellers now likely at 16537 in event of strong servs pmi.
fwiw even 1.60 3 week puts seen interest today, so clearing some hedging of scot ref going on.

Day's Trades
NY JM 14:26 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
USD move today to state the obvious...

August 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
ISM Mfg beat estimates., but ISm and Mrkit PMIs are at high levels.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:14 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Trading GBPNZD is like catching a Crab while snorkeling...
could really mess you up

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 14:10 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
GBPCHF seems to want to do it's last leg north
maybe to 1.54

USDCAD not a good idea to buy it
will buy below 1.08

July 2014 Construction Spending
GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
+1.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. -1.80% prev. rev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


August 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile



News ALERT

59.0 vs. 57.0 exp. vs. 57.1prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer


August 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI
london red 13:49 GMT 09/02/2014
ism and construction up next. whispers are for 56.x ism vs 57 f/c and construction +1.5% vs 1% f/c. prices paid and jobs component in ism likely to be focused on.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 13:49 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD
Wants Flat for a month IMO
1.32 to 1.29 as average
Boring Sept

August 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
57.9 vs. 58.0 exp. vs. 58.0 prelim

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 13:42 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Short EurCAD
Long Cable
short eurgbp

August 2014 Canada Markit PMI
GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Markit mfg PMI stronger than expeected.



August 2014 Canada Markit PMI
GVI Forex john 13:34 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile




ALERT
54.8 vs. n/a exp. vs. 54.3 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Day's Trades
london red 13:27 GMT 09/02/2014
yes. and they are reloading on every blip higher, capping gains. eurgbp also causing trouble, gdp scotland angle. watch 7945 on eurgbp. a break there will probably take us thru crossing 10 and 50 day ma (52 and 55) towards 7980/8000. eurgbp has been badly beaten up and could see some serious gains if they start panicing about the scottish ref.

Day's Trades
NY JM 13:25 GMT 09/02/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD has been lagging today, perhaps getting some support from a bounce in its battered crosses.

Also, 1.3105 is the next key target and the low has been 1.3110.

By the way, bond yields are moving up today, including Europe, which would help explain the firmer USDJOY

Day's Trades
Zurich EG 13:12 GMT 09/02/2014
Is there an options barrier at 1.31 being protected?


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