Melbourne Qindex 06:48 GMT May 26, 2013  - My Profile
EUR/JPY : Critical Point 129.432 : Reply   
EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





EUR/JPY : Critical Point 129.432


Last week the market hit the high at 133.807 and the low at 129.945. It closed at 130.76. The weekly cycle pivot centres are located at 130.107 - 132.073 - 132.793. The bias is on the downside when the market retraces further and penetrates through the critical barrier at 129.432 // 129.456.


Qindex.com

EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

ed kw 04:44 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
looks like there balancing usd indx,does gold have to drop again

Melbourne Qindex 03:05 GMT May 26, 2013  - My Profile
USD/JPY : Critical Point 100.023 : Reply   
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





USD/JPY : Weekly Cycle Analysis


Last week the market hit the low and high at 100.67 and 103.736 respectively and it closed in the New York session at 101.10. The weekly cycle normal lower limits were positioning at 98.332 - 100.458 - 101.11. It is interesting to see whether USD/JPY will retrace further next week. I would assume the market will tackle 98.332 when its downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 100.023* // 100.458. On the other hand the market is positive when it is trading above 102.348 // 102.684.


Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Dillon AL 02:37 GMT May 26, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
around 44% of JGBs are owned by the banks, 5% ma & pa, 5% foreign and 25% lifers and other insurers and the balance is owned in one way or another by MoF, BoJ, Kampo and other government owned pension funds. The banks' investment represent the available free float and the government is committed to allowing the round trip
so alls well even if yields double and if they do then the lifers and other insurers will step in to cover all their 2% guaranteed products . As to the government sponsored investors in reality they can cancel the debt any time they want and voila 25% of the problem disappears but this is likely purely in a last resort and that aint about to happen unless the UsdJpy tops 235 (yep not a typo but probably a level that is beyond most peoples vision)

Dillon AL 02:17 GMT May 26, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
welcome back nh

Livingston nh 01:57 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
Just for further clarification -- in a fiat based monetary system gov't bonds are just currency with a coupon - as long as the CB buys, rates dont rise inflation does- fiat weakens

Livingston nh 01:44 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
JP- the yen will weaken - the potential problem is the outstanding JGB not the future JGB - holders of existing JGBs (i.e. banks) are at risk unless BoJ buys all willing to sell so fiscally it becomes a wash // consumption in a savers based society is a problem - opposite of US problem - but Nikkei should flourish regardless of interest rates (my thesis has always been raise rate in a a saver based economy)

dc CB 20:49 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
US May Bonuses set this week...then New Money June 3 to start the next week, then Tues Jun4 the 21st UP Tues in a row.
With another $85bln month of POMO and MBS Buying by the FED....
____________________________________________________

dc CB 01:22 GMT May 23, 2013
United States: Reply
continuing with POMO After the 3 day Weekend

Tues $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Wed $2.75 - $3.50 billion
Thurs $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Fri to End the New Highs Month $4.25 - $5.25 billion

If Stox sell off in the face of this? Which would include the 20th in a Row Up Tuesday(if it does occur...it will)

Mtl JP 18:06 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
I dont care for suggestions for Japan to try.

I care more about (hopefully profitable) trade ideas on the back of the so-called policy makers.

All I know is that:

1) no economy has ever gone down the drain because of a strong, sound currency

2) every time politicians and dishonest bankers dilluted their promisory paper notes one or two things have happened:
- a) working folk suffered bad economic hardship
- b) econimies collapsed
--
more immediately: last week players were served a lesson and (some) have become illuminated that CB-induced bubbles are subject to a two-directional moves both in stocks and bonds and that relying on CBs "to provide" may be becoming risky regardless if they become more flexible or tapering.

As players sell off JGBs they probably look for yield elsewhere. In part into places like Greece (and such similar others) whose 10-yr has gone sub 10%.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:41 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
JP- sorry that was John. I wonder if you have another suggestion for Japan to try. Two decades of deflation gets to be a bit much!

Mtl JP 16:29 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
Jay 15:32 - very unwelcome . Not looking good when money inflation races way ahead and from any economic growth and makes Abe and his nomics look foolish

ed kw 16:02 GMT May 25, 2013
Japan: Reply   
Japan gold has no fear//but aud gold looks like fear

Mtl JP 15:41 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Japan: Reply   
some retrospect headlines about Japan
3 largest economy and a 14 trio bond market

Japan Economy Chief Warns Against Panic Over Stock Sell-Off - May 23 bbrg
“There’s no need to be perturbed as the Japanese economy is recovering soundly,” Akira Amari told reporters in Tokyo today. “We will closely watch market movements.”

BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda promises to stabilise bond market - May 24 FT
..“Through dialogue with the market and more flexible operations, we will ensure the stability of financial and capital markets,” Mr Kuroda..

Kuroda Struggles With Communication as Japan Rates Rise: Economy - May 24 bbrg

Krugman: Japan's economy may provide salve for West
..."the combination of rising interest rates and rising stock prices suggests that both reflect an increase in optimism, not worries about Japanese solvency."...
--
Bottom Line: big biG BIG efforts are being made to not only support but now to try to head off bond and stock market crash.

Cambridge Joe 15:33 GMT May 25, 2013
AUDUSD: Reply   
A note of caution !

This is a BIG signal from the 4 hr. chart therefore there could easily be a 200 / 300 pip over-shoot..... you don't always turn a super-tanker on an tanner !

There may well prove to be some commonality with Dil's $250 north for gold post..... remains to be proved.

All IMO. GL

GVI Forex john Inner Circle 15:32 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
JP- BOJ is most interested in JGB yields. They injected a lot of JPY into the system buying JGBs to drive rates down. I gather the spike in yields late last week was veryunwelcome.

Mtl JP 13:53 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   
john re "official interest rates would not be rising soon"

IF market misleading into mis-allocating and mis-pricing FED induced interest rates rise to a "normal" rate - i.e. 5% - bonds and stocks would re-price and correct by 40% or more.
To the downside.
-
Heat in JGB kitchen seems to be rising. I wonder what it will take to tits the Japanese economy

Mtl JP 12:51 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply   
manila tom 06:34 - euro maybe building short, BUT note that the price has been fairly narrow approx 130 pip range.
suggests both out and inflows

Amman wfakhoury 12:31 GMT May 25, 2013
EURUSD: Reply   
EURUSD failed to break 1.2990 the critical level to go up to
to 1.3160 .Unless it breaks 12990 and keep above it we will see 1.2830 again.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:08 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   

Fed Chairman Bernanke sent the markets mixed signals on Wednesday. One of the messages he sent was that Quantitative Ease in the form of Fed purchases of government debt COULD start to taper very soon. Markets paid no mind to the fact that the tapering would likely be very gradual and that official interest rates would not be rising soon. We feel that it was a fear of the "shock effect" on the markets of a policy change that had Bernanke trying to desensitize traders to this prospective policy change well before it hit. After all, bond yields are still at abnormally low levels and an adjustment back to more normal levels could happen abruptly and devastate stock prices and clobber the economy. The major fear at the Fed is that a sudden transition could weigh on the economy and arrest jobs growth.

The Week ahead sees Monday holidays in the U.S. and London that will constrain trading, and then a slew of data is scheduled over the week leading into month-end on Friday. Major items include German Retail Sales on Tuesday, a Bank of Canada policy decision Wednesday, U.S. Weekly Jobless data Thursday and early Friday the usual heavy end of month run of Japanese data. The U.S. sees a heavy Friday data calendar.

For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to visit the Global-View.com Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum as key items are released.

-- John M. Bland, www.global-view.com

GVI Forex 11:28 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex News: Reply   
* Yen's rebound can extend further, but weaker trend intact

* Dollar drops 2 percent this week vs yen

* Euro posts 1st weekly gain in three vs dollar after German Ifo


FOREX NEWS - U.S. dollar marks worst week vs yen in a year

GVI Forex 11:20 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Week Ahead: Reply   
• Asset markets: the start of a protracted turn lower or a pause for breathe?

• Bernanke ties prospects for tapering on near-term data

• Lloyds Business Barometer watched for further sign of improving UK confidence

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US TAPERING DRAWS NEARER?

Haifa ac 07:31 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply   
Considring the fact that the Dollar index closed friday at the highest point in the last 3 years--if you believe in momentum-- the odds are better that the dollar is about to explode here -- which, mathematically means that the euro must implode.

manila tom 06:34 GMT May 25, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply   
now that FM has given green light to euro bottoming process and Qindex gave the upside target to play, euro is a buy from here.

another consideration is the COT chart which was clearly showing market is net short euro significantly, a recipe for a quick and sizeable run up

Melbourne Qindex 06:07 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/USD : Weekly Target 1.3182


During early period of next week the market is going to consolidate further within 1.2905 - 1.2961 - 1.3049. The market is positive when it is able to trade within 1.3008 - 1.3049*. The short term targeting range is 1.3118 - 1.3182.


Qindex.com

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

jkt abel 04:33 GMT May 25, 2013
" Trade Ideas " : Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

agree with FM, i think it is time to explore the upside for the rest of this month


Lahore FM 18:12 GMT May 24, 2013
short term bottom in place imo!

Syd 02:54 GMT May 25, 2013
Is Wall Street literally writing America's laws now? : Reply   
A

bill called the Swaps Regulatory Improvement Act recently sailed through the House Financial Services Committee. But when The New York Times went through emails from a lobbyist to the congressmen who wrote it, the paper discovered an unofficial co-author: Citigroup.

It turns out that recommendations from Citigroup made up 70 of the bill's 85 lines, with two important paragraphs copied almost verbatim — save for two words that were changed to make them plural, according to the Times.

"It’s appalling, it’s disgusting, it’s wasteful and it opens the possibility of conflicts of interest and corruption," Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a former Goldman Sachs banker and member of the House Financial Services Committee who backed the bill, told the Times. "It’s unfortunately the world we live in."

Dillon AL 02:24 GMT May 25, 2013  - My Profile
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply   


Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD (which also includes the DX)

See what is in store for the week ahead

To access the videos Click here

Want More then Click here

Cambridge Joe 20:42 GMT May 24, 2013
AUDUSD: Reply   
AUDUSD flagging a structural shift of direction. Getting around 12:00 GMT in the new week.

IMO. GL

Cambridge Joe 20:37 GMT May 24, 2013
USDCAD: Reply   
USDCAD firms into the new week. IMO. GL

HK RF@ 20:26 GMT May 24, 2013
DJIA: Reply   


Propping up the Dow today starts looking pathetic.

Will cause more damage/worries than confidence among serious investors.
So no surprise if next week Nikkei will start the week with additional drops.

Exodus B4 ruins!!!

The safest temporary alternative investment: Place your money in savings account with 0% interest:)

GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:07 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
Chart Points: Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:52 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
Commitment of Traders Report: Reply   
Charts

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:51 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
Commitment of Traders Report: Reply   
Charts

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:45 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
Commitment of Traders Report: Reply   
COT EUR vs. USD Positions. In week ending Tuesday, EURUSD Longs down and shorts up. Market shorter EUR.






COT NET EUR Positions. In week ending Tuesday,






COT JPY vs USD Positions. In week ended Tuesday, JPY shorts down modestly and longs down slightly. Market shorter JPY.







COT NET JPY vs. USD Positions. In the week ended Tuesday.

Porto Cubriclas 19:22 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
audnzd: Reply   
Hi FM.
Do you have an opinion about audnzd for next couple months?
TIA and nice weekend. ;)

ed kw 18:18 GMT May 24, 2013
JPY: Reply   
swiss pairs more to this

london red 18:16 GMT May 24, 2013
JPY: Reply   
weekly reversal now looks certain with close under low. next week should be another week of forced profit taking. will look to sell 102/102,60 next week

Lahore FM 18:12 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
" Trade Ideas " : Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

short term bottom in place imo!

GVI Forex Inner Circle 18:11 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
JPY: Reply   
Stops at 100.80 in USDJPY triggered.

ed kw 18:10 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
there is already a wodwaky hear

ed kw 18:08 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
your system call yen free fall nada

ed kw 18:06 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
i will need automated system when im i a pine boxxx

GVI Forex Inner Circle 18:06 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
divergence : Reply   
We are tolerating you but please keep to one identity. (Alaska et al)

ed kw 18:03 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
go back to fishing or call a trade so yen is free falling

JERUSALEM kb 16:28 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
Trading the sup & ress. levels: Reply   
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

I prefer to delay the sell stop order for next week and will be updated

ed kw 15:53 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence : Reply   
aud/yen 9764 next chop zone 97.50 to 95.00

GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:40 GMT May 24, 2013  - My Profile
Fixed Income: Reply   
Prices in prime fixed income markets mostly higher late in Europe. Prices lower in periphery.

ed kw 15:30 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence : Reply   
chf/jpy under 105 can start yen free fall

ed kw 15:26 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence : Reply   
gold and s/p are to quiet so pik on yen day

ed kw 15:20 GMT May 24, 2013
divergence : Reply   
gbp/usd is getting the floes //e/chf busted /u/chf to //flight to safety for weekend nikkei looks busted