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FOREX FORUM
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BREAKING NEWS:
GVI 11:18 GMT 07/19/2018
Reportedly looking at retaliating with 20% auto tariff if US implements trade barriers - press -

Source TradeTheNews.com

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 11:08 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
As I posted for our AT subscribers,

These are not spec flows driving the dollar higher but my guess is some allocation into dollars that started in the Far East.

Look at your AT charts for clues when these flows are going through the market.

The Amazing Trader


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 10:59 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
Note China yuan weaker as well AUD weaker despite strong employment data today. AUD is the free market proxy for China. Commodity currencies are also on the back foot.

sell euro, buy usd
jkt abel 10:28 GMT 07/19/2018
sold euro 11612, stop 11655, target open until friday NY

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 10:02 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
EARLIER: Australia JUNE 2018 Employment data beat forecasts. Headline +50.9K with Full-time Employment up 41.2K . Unemployment rate unch at 5.40%.
Australia Employment data chart

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
GVI Trader john 09:49 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile

For AT Trading
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GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE
Spot EURUSD: 1.1596
Pivot Point: 1.1638

This Week: 1.1596-1.1745
Thu: 1.1596-1.1657
Wed: 1.1607-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725

20-day avg: 1.1665
50-day avg: 1.1704
100-day avg: 1.1981
200-day avg: 1.1985


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 98% (96%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.889% +2.3bp
DE: 0.352% +0.9bp
GB: 1.232% +0.5bp

DAX: -43
Implied Open
DJ: -49
SP: -5.5




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BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 09:13 GMT 07/19/2018
so now we have 1.2983 low to trade against
IF one believes the rockstar of banking

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 09:06 GMT 07/19/2018
it will be a close call but the more imp thing to take from it all it that its likely to be a one and done it at all, hence cable may pop but will likely finish lower on day even if they try to guide higher, because to be believeable, you will need either data or positive brexit news. recent drops in crude will not help the first, while the key date for brexit is october as of now. by the time we get there, they will then push it on, but you would also expect some negative effects into sterling at that time as well.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 09:02 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
red thanks for your always insightful comments. So you suggest the BOE might just plow through and hike anyway?

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Miss in June 2018
GVI Forex Blog 08:57 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
U.K. Retail Sales chart June 2018 U.K. Retail Sales Data miss m/m street estimates. GBP dips then recovers.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Retail Sales Miss in June 2018


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 08:46 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
Perth- good question any ideas from the forum? Data over the past two days have got to raise doubts for the doves or those on the fence at the BOE.

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 08:43 GMT 07/19/2018
other than headline miss, which was poss affected by unusually strong may (royal wedding), sales not too bad. however june should have had a good boost from world cup so im not buying that argument. however combined april may june sales were quite strong historically, certainly an improvement on Q1. boe was looking for a rebound from soft q1, in those terms i dont think it will sway them from a hike given they dont have much of a window. but in any case, cable is likely to drop whether they hike or not, unless data improves significantly and or we get a positive development on brexit.

BREAKING NEWS:
Perth WTR 08:37 GMT 07/19/2018
cable 1.30 busted rather easily,wonder if August hike will be cancelled

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 08:36 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
Big miss on retail sales. Any impact on BOE after the soft CPIs yesterday? Has to raise more doubts.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 08:34 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
U.K. Retail Sales June 2018



-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: -0.50% v +0.20% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.4%) prev.
x-fuel & autos
mm: -0.60% v +0.20% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.40%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
GVI Forex Blog 08:23 GMT 07/19/2018  - My Profile
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018


cable
Belgrade Knez 08:11 GMT 07/19/2018
london red

"50% of 115/144 is 12935."

lowest on cable I have on my chart is 1.1931 at October 2016.

please point out when do you see the low of 1.15 as stated in your post?


cable
london red 08:01 GMT 07/19/2018
multi yard expiry today at 1.30 but also a barrier there which they will no doubt try to defend. plenty of stops below. 50% of 115/144 is 12935. the 11439 was the pre adjusted fat finger low which was adjusted to 11929.

CHINA
Perth WTR 07:57 GMT 07/19/2018
both PAR

CHINA
PAR 07:45 GMT 07/19/2018
US companies making mega profits in China .

Ted Bauman

"I also discuss the thorny issue of China’s hijacking of U.S. intellectual property, which is one area where sanctions are well and truly deserved. But one thing cannot be disputed: U.S. companies that have chosen to cooperate in this “theft” did so in pursuit of profit in the Chinese market. Who should the government be punishing — China or these U.S. companies?

My friend Vladimir
PAR 07:37 GMT 07/19/2018
$ 80 billion is just a drop in the ocean of outstanding US debt .

cable
Perth WTR 07:26 GMT 07/19/2018
tom, we dont need UK data after all ;P enjoy

My friend Vladimir
PAR 07:02 GMT 07/19/2018
No idea .Trumps other friend Saudi Arabia ?

My friend Vladimir
manila tom 06:48 GMT 07/19/2018
PAR, who was the buyer though?

My friend Vladimir
PAR 06:46 GMT 07/19/2018
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

My friend Vladimir
PAR 06:41 GMT 07/19/2018
De-Dollarization #Russia style: Putin has liquidated almost all of Russia's US Treasury holdings. In just 2mths, Kremlin sold a whopping $81bn in US debt.

cable
manila tom 06:22 GMT 07/19/2018
good start WTR, hopefully UK data later will bring the needed action
usd is still king

cable
Perth WTR 03:55 GMT 07/19/2018
today cable looks struggling ahead of 13090, UK data later may give same price action as yesterday. 1.30 defense will be tested heavily the rest of this week

BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 20:28 GMT 07/18/2018
The So What that "EU negotiators reportedly are discussing Ariticle 50 extension" was worth a Northerly whipsaw in GBP between 1.3059 - 1.3082 and potentially shows markets bias about any minute prospect of UK staying somehow / anyhow tied to the EU (i.e. denied its independence)

BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 20:12 GMT 07/18/2018
begging .... BEGGING ??
s there some other meaning to that term than what Webster says:

: to ask for as a charity (see charity 1a) ·begging food from strangers
·begged him for some change

2 a : to ask earnestly for : entreat ·beg forgiveness
·I beg your pardon.

b : to require as necessary or appropriate ·a scene that begged to be photographed

3 : evade, sidestep ·begged the real problems

or maybe - for perspective - find out who at tradethenews penned that.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI 19:59 GMT 07/18/2018
EU negotiators reportedly are discussing Ariticle 50 extension - press - The UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on 29 March 2017, begging the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit). The UK govt has repeatedly said it will leave the EU on March 29th, 2019. - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
Mtl JP 19:56 GMT 07/18/2018
john 19:42 - something wonki with
Spot EURUSD: 1.1680
Pivot Point: 1.1685


lets call it a gremlin as:
1) spot is approx. 1.1639 at timestamp
and
2) Pivot is at 1.1638
srce:
Forex Pivot Points by the pros at Global-View.com table

not bothered to check the rest

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
GVI Trader john 19:42 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
For AT Trading
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GVI EURUSD MACRO Bias:

NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1647
Pivot Point: 1.1638

This Week: 1.1602-1.1745
Wed: 1.1602-1.1665
Tue: 1.1649-1.1745
Mon: 1.1675-1.1725
Fri: 1.1613-1.1683

20-day avg: 1.1885
50-day avg: 1.1704
100-day avg: 1.1981
200-day avg: 1.1985


Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 98% (98%)

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 July 2018
GVI Forex Blog 19:26 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format.

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 18 July 2018


Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT 07/18/2018
It would appear that I am not alone keeping an eye on Jerome's (and kudlow's) propaganda bullsh!t about "The Spread" (or the Yield Curve)

Earlier I saw Bernanke try to peddle similar dismissive argument :
Bernanke warns against reading wrong yield curve signal

12 hours ago - It would be a mistake to think that the unexpected flattening of the US yield curve signals a looming recession, Ben Bernanke.

Now via ZeroHedge a view by Alt-Market's Brandon Smith, originally published at Birch Gold Group:

Fed: "When The Yield Curve Creates Doubt, Throw It Out"


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI 18:17 GMT 07/18/2018
FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ROSE MODERATELY TO MODESTLY IN 10 OF 12 DISTRICTS;

- Dallas had strong growth, St Louis slight growth

- Prices and employment rose at modest to moderate pace - Extent of pass-through from input to consumer prices remained slight to moderate

- Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies

- - Source TradeTheNews.com

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI 17:46 GMT 07/18/2018
Unnamed UK cabinet minister says Conservatives have come to their senses and will stick together in support of the Chequers deal - press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018
GVI Forex Blog 17:00 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Thursday Trading Checklist 19 July 2018



Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 15:43 GMT 07/18/2018
Yield Curve Watch

according to Fed's Powell on yield curve:

Question is what's the story with long rates


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 15:35 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
Its a bit difficult to explain, but when I was an institutional trader I had to borrow funds for trading from our firm and they "charged" me for my trading funds and for use of the firm's capital. There was no "free" money for anyone and costs for the use of company funds and capital was closely accounted for. That is true everywhere for any well run firm. Bottom line there is no free lunch no matter how big you are.

BREAKING NEWS:
Kl Fs 15:02 GMT 07/18/2018
John, agree re. same rollover cost however for big fish the rollover cost is not effecting their capital as much as small fish. For example average small fish may have capital 10-20k, big fish may have millions so same rollover raising from 1 standard lot for example has different percentage in terms of their capital sizes.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 15:01 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +5.800 vs. -3.600 exp vs. -12.600 prev.
Distillates: -0.300 vs. +0.900 exp vs. +4.100 prev.
Gasoline: -3.200 vs. -0.400 exp vs. -0.700 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



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AT FX Trading Alert
Mtl JP 14:52 GMT 07/18/2018
eurdlr a boost ....
from 1.1635 to 1.1650 to 1.1644
getting filthy rich ?

AT FX Trading Alert
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 14:38 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
Steady buying in EURGBP as seen on an AT EURGBP chart is giving EURUSD a boost while GBPUSD lags. Key AT levels are availble for those using our program.

Think Like Our Algo, Trade Like a Pro


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI 14:09 GMT 07/18/2018
Former Foreign Min Johnson: PM May's Brexit plan does not take back control from the EU - May's plan makes it harder for the UK to pursue trade deals with other countries- There is no Parliamentary majority in support of a Customs Union with the EU- Have to try and save Brexit now because we will not get another chance

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 14:03 GMT 07/18/2018
for trivia record:
at the start on the 2nd day of powell delivering the same thing he did yesty:
eurdlr at 1.1635
usdyen 112.85
dlrx 94.95

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 13:54 GMT 07/18/2018
possibly in ref to my earlier post about yield curve kudlow felt compelled to kvetch on cnbc that "no recession in sight" but he did not say how good his sight is or not, just that not "any time soon"

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 13:19 GMT 07/18/2018
Nive try john but I suggest off the mark. munchkin's influence in the market barely reaches powell's ankles.

It is powell and his merry gang with all sorts of position papers and plots that have market's ear. Particularly Bond market's ear. And there is a reason why particularly the 10-yr paper is considered the Benchmark.

There was a time u were hawkishly watching the 10-yr for 3%. Now that it is back below 3% how significant or not is it that it is under 3% do u think ?

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 13:12 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
I think housing has a major affordability problem. Builders have been overbuilding at the high end. If they can't sell them they won't build them.

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
GVI Trader john 13:09 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
Powell has NO role in Forex policy. That has always been the portfolio of the Treasury Secretary (Mnuchin).

BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 13:07 GMT 07/18/2018
john 12:32 what do u think the "Big misses" reflect:
overly and perennially optimistic govt propaganda apparatchiks or a start of something sinister on the ground or _

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 13:00 GMT 07/18/2018


to be polite to Jerome : DLR looking tired
impolite version would say : bored with jerome

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 12:48 GMT 07/18/2018
I ll start:
Unlikely to above 1.1750
Likelier towards if not to 1.15

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 12:45 GMT 07/18/2018
I see powell's testimoany at 10am NYT been given AA grade as potential menace to one's wallet on essentially a rehash same blather he delivered yesty.

Who d like prognosticate dlr's range today?
tia

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Housing Starts Permits Miss in June 2018
GVI Forex Blog 12:40 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
Housing Starts and Permits miss big in June 2018.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Housing Starts/Permits Miss in June 2018


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 12:32 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
Big misses

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 12:31 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) June 2018




NEWS ALERT
Starts: 1.170 vs. 1.320 exp. vs. 1.350 (r 1.337) prev.
Permits: 1.270 vs. 1.330 exp. vs. 1.300 prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 12:28 GMT 07/18/2018
At bottom of hour
building permits = potential to move prices around
do not think more than +/- 30pips

Wednesday Trading Checklist 18 July 2018
Mtl JP 12:25 GMT 07/18/2018
Yield Curve Watch
10yr 2.851
2yr 2.611
curve slope: 0.24
-
July 13: 0.252
July 7th: 0.283

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trader john 12:13 GMT 07/18/2018  - My Profile
KL- interesting points. I might add that the "big fish" face the same rollover costs that retail traders have to deal with. Rollover costs come from interest rate differentials. That is why central bank decisions, and the outlook for future decisions are central to forex trading.





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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com


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