The modern huge ‘spot’ of Romania in Europe is the consequence of rather fortunate coincidence of events in the 20th century. Even the Eastern border was lined along the river Prut quiet reasonably: under the conditions of 1944 year Moldavian SSR could include not only Bessarabia, but also Moldova itself up to the river Siret, and even up to the Carpathian Mountains. And if the king Mihai had been thinking more and if it had been Hungary, not Romania, to join Anti-Hitler coalition, it would have been possible for Bucharest to own only ‘the old kingdom’, i. e. Wallaсhia. And Budapest, n the contrary, could have been luckier – with its largely desired Transylvania and alongside with separating from it the Danube valley Banat.
It is absolutely obvious that in 1990s Romania could state that national entity is the main priority and it was eager to sacrifice much for the sake of it. Moreover they had to sacrifice not people or land, bur what one can’t feel sorry for – dependence. It means that Romania ought to have become a neutral country, equally friendly to all distant and close neighbors. First of all, towards Russia taking into account long-rooted relationship of Moldova and Russia, and inclination of former part of Moldavian SSR to Russia. And if Romania had stated that its desire was to be home for all nations historically inhabiting the place between Danube and Dniester, it would have been impossible for Transnistria to appear, for it was violent nationalism of Romanian politicians and absolute intolerance to Slavonic people that made split of Moldova inevitable.
Of course, one couldn’t say whether this policy would bring a merger with Moldova or not, but at least they could say: “We did our best”. At least the neutrality guaranteed by Constitution and anti-block status of Romania would be a good base for solving of Transnistria conflict and reuniting of Moldova itself. In current state the split of Moldova makes it very problematic to integrate into Romania.
But here it makes little sense to presuppose, because we all knew that in spite of hysterical union declarations of right politicians the ruling head of Romania has been betraying for a quarter of the century the national entity of all Romanians – all people speaking limba noastra. They preferred the West, which really doesn’t need it, to the East. And not to some incomprehensible East – but to their own East – Republic of Moldova, including historical Bessarabia.
Some politicians were cunning in claiming that Romania as EU and NATO member was more favorable for Moldova than a country that didn’t have such a status. And they could reach a merger in united Europe where there were no state borders.
We can argue with it, bit let us suppose that it is really so. But Romanians didn’t consider sucha trifle as a position of the West – the real master of the situation. Yes, the USA today would be happy to have Moldova merged by Romania, but it isn’t made out in Washington, because Romania isn’t the state of USA. It is made out in Brussels. And Europe, mixing with their own unsuccessful South and problematic Balkan states, including Romania, doesn’t seek to get another one – the most backward and corrupted country of Europe – Moldova.
So, the outer border of EU for many years has divided the Romanian people by the river Prut. And the reason is the avidity of Romanian politicians who have exchanged entity with Moldova for mythical attractions of EU, where the place of Romania is the most disgraceful.
Figuratively speaking Romanians didn’t even become the last among the equal. Well, the last they have become, but not even formally equal, because they still can’t enter Schengen area. And even if they could, they wouldn’t stop being there ‘aliens’, because real Europe is Catholic and Protestant, but not Orthodox. Proverbial ‘European prospects’ are only for Transylvania, which now has more opportunities to move apart from Romania towards Hungary. That is why European prospects for Moldova are very vague and at this point have no real gound.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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