One rule of elections is that folks are more likely to turnout to cast a negative vote, ignoring sickness or weather that would deter a trip to vote for an overwhelming favorite or for a party hack
The election is being touted by the Groupthink media as important to reject Le Pen - voters in the traditional parties have joined before to reject the National front // BUT this election has TWO negatives, Le Pen and politics as usual - the task is to determine how many voters say a plague on both your houses and stay home (low turnout), how many perceive politics as usual as the greater evil and reject the call from traditional party leaders to vote for Macron AND the Wild Card of the Far Left and Socialist voters who perceive Macron as the candidate of the Elites
The voters rejected the traditional parties and this is a problem for Macron who is a candidate without a Party - how much organization can/will the party leaders provide for the Maverick into the election day?
The cultural and economic demographics in France are at play in this election much more so than in the recent Dutch election -- it is very similar to Brexit vote, yes or no -- the demographics and motivations of the electorate have shifted -- the polls may be missing this again
I would say the GAP is likely 7% - Macron's support beyond his First Round vote is lukewarm (broad but shallow) -- any slips and the gap can be filled
Livingston nh 19:16:53 GMT - 04/25/2017
It appears that the commentariat has decided that Macron will be the next President of France. Of course, there are the requisite cautions about the Odds and the tag line that anything can happen. Such comments expose the writers' confusion of IMprobable and IMpossible events. The writers actually believe that a Le Pen victory is impossible but it would be gauche to be so frank. Most of the political analysts understand the HOW of elections but not the WHY. When they err the culprit is often the reliance on the GOOD ANALOGY.
In at least two comments you have put a 3x% cap on the Second Round vote for Le Pen. My limited understanding of multi party Parliamentary systems is always a problem in European elections. I see this as a much closer election because of the cultural and economic issues. BUT rather than bid against myself I would ask you to explain the basis for your 3x% cap.
I attach a chart from NYTimes that shows the vote preferences map of France. I note PARIS (the circle) rebuffed Le Pen. The Election is clearly an elites in the castle vs the pitchfork peasants in the village. I will rely on this map for further discussion (if any).
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.