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Paris ib  14:02:48 GMT - 10/06/2017  
Good grief, two year yields at 1.52 percent. Rolling that massive American Government debt just gets more and more expensive.

For now the USD bulls are loving it but IMVHO mistaking a bond market SELL OFF for a bullish U.S. signal is a mistake in the medium term. It will work for the short term but be cautious, especially if you fall in love with the trend. gl gt


PAR 10:31:07 GMT - 07/05/2017  
Fed minutes to point at more rate hikes and a program to reduce the FED s balance sheet . Normalization of monetary policy is good .

If one looks at the expansion of all government deficits all over the world one can argue that it was fiscal policy and not monetary policy which lead to the recovery whatever central bankers may claim .


Paris ib  10:12:14 GMT - 07/05/2017  
Getting out of Dodge.

2 year Treasury yields now at 1.41 percent and rising.


Paris ib  08:38:43 GMT - 06/28/2017  
The 2 year U.S. Yield looks frozen at the moment.

They say in the JGB market nothing trades at all any more. The only actor in the market is the BoJ and the rest of the market is completely frozen out. Yields don't change. Nothing moves. I'm beginning to think that can happen in the States. Until the damn bursts. This is so bizarre.

The Police State made manifest. A world where the authorities control everything. Well trying to anyhow..... what a bunch of weirdos.

Oh yeah



PAR 15:23:27 GMT - 06/27/2017  
Could the ECB Ponzi scheme be on the brink of collapse .

Ponzi s usually collapses when the head responsible is on holiday.
E.g. Sintra in Portugal.


Paris ib  14:55:45 GMT - 06/27/2017  
This is one take on where it will go:

"China, with its ghost cities and massive state-directed banking system. They explore Australia, Canada, and South Korea, as possible sources for the next financial crisis"

My take: the USA will be where it starts. The knock on effects will depend on how much the U.S. manages to export the problem.

They gave it a shot with the Greek crisis, I don't know what the candidates are now though. Australia looks scary. Canada looks fairly horrendous. We have a lot of possible options out there.

Steve Keen... blabbing a bit



dc CB  14:50:15 GMT - 06/27/2017  
 
"Yields are rising in the States and I can think of no real reason why this medium term trend will reverse"



Paris ib  14:48:00 GMT - 06/27/2017  
JP.... I love that 'It must stop'

An economic crisis is baked in. What we are watching for is how it develops. The print and forget moment in history is well past. Now it's time to deal with reality.


Mtl Jp  14:42:17 GMT - 06/27/2017  
It must stop / reverse. If it won't Yellen and gang risk causing an economic crisis. Again.


Paris ib  14:39:22 GMT - 06/27/2017  
1.40 IMVHO will be broken.... :-)


Paris ib  14:38:09 GMT - 06/27/2017  
red I think the trend is your friend on this one. Yields are rising in the States and I can think of no real reason why this medium term trend will reverse. My only question: how far will this go? And how much damage will it do? For now.... that's the trend. The damage we will work out when we get to the apex, where ever that may be.


london red  14:23:47 GMT - 06/27/2017  
1.40 to watch on the 2's
sup for euro 43/44/50 more by 11220


dc CB  14:19:09 GMT - 06/27/2017  
Auctions this week.
Yest the 2 went off with the Highest Bid to Cover - 3.03 -- since Nov 2015...yielded 1.348% against WI 1.354% = 0.6 bps.

Today the 5s go off at the same time Yellen' speaks
Tom 7's


Paris ib  14:08:05 GMT - 06/27/2017  
2 year U.S. Treasury yields now nearly 1.38 percent and rising.

The cost of funding that enormous debt keeps rising, and the interest bill just gets added on to the debt. Debt spiral anyone?

Don't believe the spin, this is NOT USD positive, this is a big, big problem. And while the U.S. media insists on destroying any lingering confidence in the current U.S. administration it can only get worse.

USD negative. And the U.S. Treasury market is the biggest bubble of all.

Get your popcorn people, this is going to be amazing. gl gt


Paris ib  07:55:31 GMT - 06/13/2017  
While America self-immolates the cost of funding that immense level of U.S. Government debt keeps rising. 2 year Treasury yields above 1.35 percent now. It's just a matter of time before they reach 1.4 percent. And at some point you get a debt spiral: the rising cost of funding adds considerably to the stock of existing debt (after all none of it ever gets actually PAID back - note to foreign holders of U.S. debt) and if the market really catches fright you get: Greece.

Trump has a PhD in debt management, so he better get onto this. Although the circus in Washington and in the U.S. Press is likely to make that difficult, if not impossible. It would appears that the people who lost the U.S. election don't care what happens to the U.S. as a whole. They are not the sort of people you can make a deal with or trust.

Good luck Donald, you are going to need it. USD positive? I don't think so.

More drama



Paris ib  18:17:34 GMT - 06/01/2017  
The rising cost of funding the HUGE U.S. Government debt is WHAT is going to get ugly. I don't see a massive rush to fund the U.S. when the U.S. press is busy denigrating the sitting President and his entire administration. THAT is ugly. The funding mess will be UGLIER.


dc CB  18:13:05 GMT - 06/01/2017  
 
ib
What are you talking about.
this looks ugly?


Haifa ac  17:30:52 GMT - 06/01/2017  


AHHHH the memories of the chalice:

Hawkins: I’ve got it! I’ve got it! The pellet with the poison’s in the vessel with the pestle; the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true! Right?
Griselda: Right, but there’s been a change. They broke the chalice from the palace.
Hawkins: They broke the chalice from the palace?!
Griselda: And replaced it with a flagon.
Hawkins: A flagon?
Griselda: With the figure of a dragon.
Hawkins: Flagon with a dragon.
Griselda: Right.
Hawkins: But did you put the pellet with the poison in the vessel with the pestle?
Griselda: No! The pellet with the poison’s in the flagon with the dragon! The vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true!
Hawkins: The pellet with the poison’s in the flagon with the dragon; the vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true.
Griselda: Just remember that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4ni2FxH7v8


Paris ib  16:57:53 GMT - 06/01/2017  
Trump's poisoned chalice... 2 year U.S. Treasury yields back above 1.3 percent. This is going to get ugly. The attack dogs keep going, undermining whatever international credibility the U.S. might still have had. Ugly stuff.

Meanwhile: everyone seems to agree that the EUR/USD needs to go higher. Not that the permabears have noticed.

"Both Trump and Merkel, moreover, say they want the Euro to strengthen against the US dollar."

The USD in the Trump Era



Paris ib  09:04:42 GMT - 05/11/2017  
The U.S. Treasury market is the CRUCIAL global market to watch. If it continues to lose ground this is NOT good news for the United States. Watch that. Everything else is noise.

The debt bomb



Israel Dil  13:41:51 GMT - 05/10/2017  
looking at all that, I see money gods play monopoly in virtual reality and somehow the overwhelming majority is certain it's reality. Paper money pays interest over paper money. seems that is going to last forever, so why to bother about that?


Paris ib  13:33:45 GMT - 05/10/2017  
Cost of funding the U.S. Government debt just keeps rising. 2 year bond yields now at 1.34 percent or thereabouts. This is the key market to keep an eye on. The pundits talk about how this cratering market is attracting funds - funds I guess that want to lose money on a falling asset. So speculative USD buying takes place but it's not real capital inflows. Remember that.


Livingston nh  11:45:19 GMT - 05/04/2017  
ib- Rather than my normal RANT response to your concerns about the fiscal conditions in the US (a default on Treasurys?) and oft repeated demise of the USD my early morning brief included this short narrative in the FT LINK --- it doesn't include my favorite "Gov debt is just currency with a coupon" but does offer the following ..."Government debt isn’t supposed to be paid off! People buy sovereign bonds because they want to store wealth in something that does well when the rest of the economy does badly. One of the central problems of the past few decades has been the stubborn refusal of certain governments, including America’s, to accommodate this desire, suppressing real interest rates and encouraging the unscrupulous to create imperfect substitutes for safe debt. Rattner doesn’t seem to think banks should “pay off” their deposit obligations and liquidate themselves. So why should the government?" -- the article is timely for the current and much to be hoped for future state of fiscal policy (taxes) in the US -- perhaps even my argument that the FED's monetary policy has been tight because of the HOARDING of Treasurys




Paris ib  07:46:10 GMT - 05/04/2017  
Meanwhile back on the farm.... U.S. bond yields are rising again. 2 year Treasuries back above 1.3 percent, not quite the peak seen in March but... the trend is your friend. And while all the pundits will tell you this means the USD is a buy (because you know if an asset is falling in price - and Treasuries are falling in price - then it's a buy.... EVENTUALLY) what it is really telling you is that the funding for U.S. Government debt is getting more expensive and that is a problem when you have a huge debt, a deficit and your rely on overseas funding.

In this environment the media is intent on trying to destroy confidence in the Trump Administration. Talk about an own goal.

Implications for the USD? Not good.

That debt



Israel Dil  17:30:39 GMT - 03/08/2017  
hey ib girl, happy woman's day!!! ;-)


Paris ib  17:26:35 GMT - 03/08/2017  
Surreal how the ongoing bond market sell off is being ignored by the markets. At some point though higher interest rates will start showing up in the economic data. Wadda we got? 6 months? 3 months? till it starts impacting economic data.

2 year U.S. Treasury yields now 1.37 percent. Boom.


Mtl JP  15:32:11 GMT - 03/02/2017  
dc CB lets see janet's FED gang dis-appoint the near certain market next.
Communication is one of the few "credibility assets" the FED has to peddle.


Mtl JP  15:23:54 GMT - 03/02/2017  
nh 15:08 any janet-induced dip in the dollar is a BoD opp


Mtl JP  15:19:21 GMT - 03/02/2017  
How out of touch are these people?

Exactly and precisely just the right amount so that you and I an get rich off them - their primary raison d'etre of their existence.

Latest example: Brainard. hallelu-yeaaahh!


Paris ib  15:13:17 GMT - 03/02/2017  
The Fed is always surprised by the market reaction. How out of touch are these people?


Livingston nh  15:08:46 GMT - 03/02/2017  
Seems that the Fed was surprised by the reaction to the Minutes last week -- on Tuesday b4 Minutes rates were higher than last Friday // Yellen may want to inject a bit of Uncertainty


Israel Dil  14:59:45 GMT - 03/02/2017  
who's gonna fill the gap?
the masses left stocks 65% lower, they are not coming back when LePen is stripped of her immunity by the EU.

so doesn't MATTER how you look at it, you see the same, CRASH!

EU is dying while Sweden recalls mandatory army service for the youths (reading the small letters may assure that they are nuts) ;-)


dc CB  14:52:59 GMT - 03/02/2017  
 
March hike odds now 90%

5ver went from 1.8 friday's close to 2.02 this morning


Paris ib  14:44:27 GMT - 03/02/2017  
If the entire world starts hiking... what then?

"The ECB will reduce... quantitative easing from €80bn to €60bn a month from April, with purchases set to continue until the end ..year."

It's gonna be interesting.

ECB: the next move is up?



Paris ib  14:40:49 GMT - 03/02/2017  
2 year U.S. yields now above 1.3 percent. Target? 2 percent? More?

AUD taking a hit. A higher interest rate economy is going to hit the high-debt Australian economy hard.

The debt bubble



dc CB  19:45:17 GMT - 03/01/2017  
 
quite a move/change of heart since friday afternoon.


Paris ib  17:05:28 GMT - 03/01/2017  
PAR negative rates are crazy, we know that. Just looking German Government bond rates still negative out to EIGHT years. Seriously. What will be interesting is the readjustment period. The impact will be different in different countries......


PAR 17:03:13 GMT - 03/01/2017  
If FED hikes ECB will have to follow and get rid of negative rates which will be a huge plus for European banks . Italian banks shooting up like NPL's don t exist .

In current environment ECB negative rates look crazy .


Paris ib  17:00:26 GMT - 03/01/2017  
If the 10 year goes to 3 percent, which now seems possible, what then? When does the market 'care' about this?


Paris ib  16:56:46 GMT - 03/01/2017  
Seems a bit exaggerated. Market is freaking out quietly.... too weird.


Livingston nh  16:48:26 GMT - 03/01/2017  
2 yr is backing off (1.27) big moves Mon and Tues -- 10 yr same as it was first day of 2017 // it's nothing


PAR 16:43:10 GMT - 03/01/2017  
Fed speak . The " Dudley" rally in world bank shares .


Paris ib  16:12:44 GMT - 03/01/2017  
Two year Treasury yields are hitting 1.3 percent. While the trend is your friend and all that, what is the news that would see this massive spike in U.S. yields today? What did I miss?


Paris ib  19:00:49 GMT - 09/01/2015  
While stocks see ongoing weakness there has NOT been a commensurate increase in bond buying. 2 year Treasury yields are still above 0.70 percent and 3 year yields are above 1 percent. This is not good news. The U.S. rolls most of its debt in the 1 to 2 year area. And it has a lot of debt to roll. 4 trillion rolls every year. Higher yields at the short end go right to the bottom line. One more reason for Yellen NOT to hike in September. Though I note the ongoing USD bullish sentiment on this forum and in the press. The logic is flawed. The USD remains at risk.


Paris ib  19:07:25 GMT - 03/25/2015  
U.S. Treasuries selling off even as the U.S. (and other) stock markets takes a hit. Not good news. The usual positive Yellen impact (post FOMC) on bonds is wearing off again. Same old, same old. All up bad news for the USD. What do we have? Bad economic data. A struggling stock market. A failure to rally on the bond market and a USD index which is coming off its multi-year high. Oh and then there is all this weird background geo-political stuff going on. Black swans line up.


Mtl JP  20:48:36 GMT - 03/06/2015  
with stox off only approx 1.5-1.7%, still very very far from a Babson moment , also far from shellshock


Paris ib  20:39:57 GMT - 03/06/2015  
The U.S. funds itself in the 2 to 3 year area of the yield curve, when it is not issuing paper of a year's duration or less. 2 year yields have tripled since early 2011. OK they are still low but what has happened to total U.S. government debt in that time? It has increased by over 30 percent. Taken together that is not good.

U.S. Government debt



dc CB  20:34:02 GMT - 03/06/2015  
 
10y yields are still pretty low

the auctions next week will be interesting.

I really thought that the BLS would put out a poor number today, given all the layoff anncments that came during earning reports and the cut backs in the energy sector.

The next FMOC, coming in the 1st quarter QuadWitching week and the Spring Equinox ( for GANN traders) and APPL joining the DOW....should be one wild week.


Paris ib  20:29:02 GMT - 03/06/2015  
JP I had a catholic education. I kinda like the idea of living in a functional society with happy people in it. Not shell shocked desperados. But hey that's just me. :-)


Mtl JP  20:18:54 GMT - 03/06/2015  
ib 19:54 / what is ugly about "a collapse of bonds and stocks more or less at the same time" pray tell ? To me that sounds like that one multi-decade trade opportunity to get filthy rich. And something to get excited about - and if you are right , and I am right, and we both get filthy rich, we could combine our filth, buy a 747, u pilot and I serve the drinks as we plan our next destination.
What would you like in your juice ?


Paris ib  19:54:03 GMT - 03/06/2015  
3 year Treasury yield at 1.14 percent and looking ugly. Stocks don't like it, neither will the economy. Failed policy all round. We could very well have a collapse of bonds and stocks more or less at the same time. After all the rally was across the board. Central Banks take a bow. You idiots.


Paris ib  13:46:29 GMT - 03/06/2015  
Stocks are not liking this. At least in the U.S.


Paris ib  13:36:25 GMT - 03/06/2015  
3 year Treasury yields hit 1.10% following the employment report. The talk is going to be monetary policy tightening with all the implications that has. DAX through the roof on the weaker Euro.... all those exports driving the German economy higher.

The Rouble is killing it. What's not to love? Very high short term rates, a trade surplus, almost no government debt and repatriation of funds held overseas.


Paris ib  08:42:55 GMT - 03/04/2015  
Japanese bond yields continue to creep higher after reaching a record low at the start of the year. This yield creep in all Government bond markets needs to be monitored. Government bonds are in the largest bubble.... should it burst then head for the hills.

U.S. 3 year yield at 1.06 percent this morning.

Japanese Yields



Paris ib  20:50:01 GMT - 03/03/2015  
The Anglo-American corporate regime. Backed by guns. Prototype: Honduras in its Banana Republic phase.


Mtl JP  20:45:16 GMT - 03/03/2015  
well that is a good qtn.
essept I am not sure which regime is failing u r asking about


Paris ib  20:36:49 GMT - 03/03/2015  
JP - depends. The regime is failing. Wadda they gonna do? Blow up or occupy the entire world?

New World Order



Mtl JP  20:32:23 GMT - 03/03/2015  
but so-far nothing serious enough to seriously affect the perpetrators's own, personal skin.


Paris ib  20:29:28 GMT - 03/03/2015  
JP - we got sanctions and bombs and aiding and abetting coups, there are wars of aggression in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya... the pivot to Asia.


Paris ib  20:27:52 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Yeah? What's the new theory then? Print your own? Stuff your pockets with leaves? Bit too 'Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy' for me.


Livingston nh  20:23:59 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Don't bang the drum about the need for foreign capital flows -- that is OLD econ theory // that is gold based (widgets like the EUR)

Centuries ago China grew w/o any foreign capital

The US grew with very high import tariffs

There are NO absolutes in economics - its not physics


Mtl JP  20:23:36 GMT - 03/03/2015  
economic / trade / financial sanctions ... are those versions of "military aggression" ?


Paris ib  20:18:12 GMT - 03/03/2015  
If government debt markets in the Western world enter a bear market then the possibility of fiscal stimulus is zero. Economic conditions deteriorate. Countries dependent on other people's money will be forced to pay a premium to borrow. I think the Anglo-Saxon model (external deficits in trade and capital) is entering a terminal phase, hence the military aggression: attempting to enforce a dying international regime.


Livingston nh  20:16:21 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Government Bonds ARE currency with a coupon - so money = money // FIAT money is different than widget based money


Livingston nh  20:14:15 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Currency and the theory of relativity - buttons in what country -- if interest rates are zero everywhere then all currencies are at parity? // size matters


Paris ib  20:10:23 GMT - 03/03/2015  
All the other bubbles are dependent on the Government Bond market bubble. That goes, it all goes.


Paris ib  20:09:01 GMT - 03/03/2015  
OK fine you could end up getting your 'money' back and being able to buy a couple of buttons with it. In the end purchasing power is what counts. We are entering crazy times with mad men in the control room. 3 year treasury yield at 1.08 percent and rising. And if you are looking for 'bubbles' the biggest and craziest bubble is in government debt.


Livingston nh  20:00:49 GMT - 03/03/2015  
You are using 19th century widget based economics - fiat based debt will always be "paid back" - a USD bond will be redeemed in USD - its purchasing power is another story //CBs are encouraging inflation - as always buy fixed income at your peril


Paris ib  19:54:12 GMT - 03/03/2015  
3 year U.S. Treasury yields now at 1.07 percent and rising. Japanese yields have been rising.... just as we were all getting comfortable with the idea of negative yields and an endless bull market in Government bonds (you know those instruments which represent a debt which can NEVER be paid back and just needs to be endlessly rolled over). German government bond yields are still negative out to six years... but yields are backing up.


Paris ib  17:14:58 GMT - 03/02/2015  
The 'Yellen impact' lasted a couple of days and now it's back to selling U.S. Treasuries. This is more important than the 'narrative' would have you believe. Higher bond yields mean more seller than buyers on the U.S. Treasury market. I continue to believe that geopolitics plays a role here and IMVHO it means that aggressive U.S. geopolitical strategies are impacting the willingness of foreigners to stump up the cash to finance the U.S. Government. Which is the same as saying foreigners are not so keen holding USDs as an international reserve currency.


Paris ib  18:30:23 GMT - 02/26/2015  
Bond yields creeping higher in the U.S., the Yellen impact is fading.


Paris ib  16:26:21 GMT - 02/26/2015  
Negative bond yields in Germany and the prospect of QE has not helped the U.S. bond market any today. Neither has the rally in the USD.


GVI Forex john   14:48:31 GMT - 02/26/2015  
I have the 10-yr bund at 0.277% -3.3bp.
ECB starts QE in March.

EURUSD starting to get set up?


Paris ib  14:35:42 GMT - 02/26/2015  
3 years above 1 percent again. Is this even a tradeable market at this stage? What we have is ping pong.


Paris ib  14:11:24 GMT - 02/26/2015  
3 year Treasury yields testing 1 percent again. It will be interesting to see if the 'Yellen effect' wears off shortly. What normally happens is that Yellen comes out and makes all these soothing noises, the bond market reacts for a few days and then it's back to off loading bonds in the run up to an expected policy tightening.


Paris ib  19:59:45 GMT - 02/20/2015  
3 year yield back well above 1 percent. Now at 1.07 percent. Back to the avalanche?


Paris ib  10:32:19 GMT - 02/19/2015  
3 year Treasury yields back above 1%.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  20:37:35 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Her name is Mester


gc sf  20:22:00 GMT - 02/17/2015  
I'm just posting the comments I see - as I don't see them on GV since I logged in -- whether I agree with them or not.

Yesterday another Fed person - Female said same thing -- she expected a rise in June - ... I apologize I can't find her name right at this minute but if I find it will add that as well.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  20:17:47 GMT - 02/17/2015  
gc, remember the source. Plosser is an outgoing hawk on an FOMC filled mostly with doves.


GVI Forex john   20:16:05 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Plosser is a prema-hawk and a non-voter.


HK RF@  20:11:48 GMT - 02/17/2015  


Plosser talks down bonds.

In this situation where people have no money, and US econ. struggles, doubt if any hike soon to come.


HK RF@  20:09:17 GMT - 02/17/2015  


Can we see the bond market avalanche, as another form of QE, or an all purpose liquidity injection, where investors will prefer to pull out their money out of declining bonds, and place it in business or S. market?

Still suspect the Fed may be behind it.




gc sf  20:06:03 GMT - 02/17/2015  
here is another one ..

Fed should be really close to raising rates - Plosser

* 1.00-1.50% Fed funds rate at the end of 2015 is 'reasonable'
* FOMC's 'patient' language will be difficult to exit
* Fed should be really close to raising rates


gc sf  20:03:32 GMT - 02/17/2015  
yesterday one of the Fed Speakers was saying that would be for a June Hike


GVI Forex john   19:34:56 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Fair question. Given the dovish bias of all the voting members this year, I'm not sure why they would be selling.

Its conceivable that the central bank might want to nudge the normalization process, but they haven't even been discussing it.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  19:34:21 GMT - 02/17/2015  
RF. Highly doubtful.


HK RF@  19:29:04 GMT - 02/17/2015  

john 19:05

Is there any possibility the Fed is causing that avalanche by selling into the market?


GVI Forex john   19:21:16 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Actually rising bond yields could be supportive of stocks if the markets feel they are higher on expectations of a stronger U.S. economy. They can't currently be concerned about inflation.

Personally I think U.S. data have been turning mixed, but the markets apparently are not seeing what I see.


GVI Forex john   19:05:26 GMT - 02/17/2015  
RF- higher yields COULD mean that rates are simply "normalizing" to levels where traditionally they SHOULD be. There is a ton of paper out there that has to be absorbed. I don't see how the Fed makes money if it marks it s portfolio to market?


HK RF@  18:55:21 GMT - 02/17/2015  


Higher yields means that: The Fed, is going to make a big money if/when the S.Market will go into a correction sooner or later.
Bonds is where the exiting correction money will go.

Just don't believe for the time about coming interest rate rise.


Paris ib  18:41:14 GMT - 02/17/2015  
JM - well you came to the right place. :-)


Paris ib  18:38:46 GMT - 02/17/2015  
JM - weaker Treasury prices means selling in the Treasury market. Higher yields means that. There is no necessary correlation with the USD unless foreign sellers are involved.


NY JM  17:46:21 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Ib weaker US treasuries does not necessarily mean selling dollars. It could also reflect reallocation of asset mix. I love a good debate.


Paris ib  16:52:38 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Jay you can repeat the mantra but it doesn't make it so. Rising bond yields indicate selling of bonds. Now if this is related to a stronger economy, well and good. But you still have to identify how the stronger economy is going to impact the currency. Better trade performance? OK a positive. Not the case in the U.S., stronger demand if anything is likely to see a higher trade deficit (and it has). So capital inflows attracted to some investment opportunity? OK fine. Where are these potential capital inflows likely to go in this case if the U.S. is indeed seeing a better economic outlook?

Case in point today: weak data did not see bonds in the U.S. rally. So we have two negatives: weak data and selling on the bond market.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:48:36 GMT - 02/17/2015  
As I said if bond yields rise because of capital flight it is a negative for a currency. If they rise because of a better economy it is a positive.

Otherwise, if shorter term differentials widen then it is a positive.



Paris ib  16:18:43 GMT - 02/17/2015  
kw - fixed income is the bond market. The U.S. bond market is seeing selling pressure. You buy, you lose money. Until yields start falling.


Paris ib  16:17:22 GMT - 02/17/2015  
3 year U.S. yields haven't been this high since early 2011. The cost of refinancing all that debt is getting higher. This is not positive.

Check the monthly chart



nw kw  16:16:49 GMT - 02/17/2015  
bnn. moving in to fixed income


Paris ib  16:13:43 GMT - 02/17/2015  
JM - Back to my Feb 12 reply to you (which you may have missed):

You don't buy an economy you buy a currency.

A currency can only rise because you have strong capital inflows or a positive trade performance. Speculators can push you around some but the longer term trends are determined by actual real money buying or selling a currency. No-one buys USDs because the bond market is on the slide. And if a stronger economy is likely to encourage capital inflows then you have to identify where those inflows are likely to go. Stocks? Real Estate?..... So the bond market slide remains a negative and you have to find the positive story. Which I haven't at this stage.


Paris ib  08:57:40 GMT - 02/12/2015  
NY JM 17:26 GMT February 11, 2015
Bond Market Avalanche: Reply
ib not unless it reflects a stronger economy and expectations of rate hikes.

I had a think about this. I remain of the view that expectations of a stronger economy and rate hikes are NOT likely to do more than encourage speculative plays. Unless the U.S. moves rates to say 3 percent at the short end (and really murders the bond market) I don't see 'expectations of a strong economy' as USD bullish per se. You don't buy an economy you buy a currency. A currency can only rise because you have strong capital inflows or a positive trade performance. Speculators can push you around some but the longer term trends are determined by actual real money buying or selling a currency. No-one buys USDs because the bond market is on the slide. And if a stronger economy is likely to encourage capital inflows then you have to identify where those inflows are likely to go. Stocks? Real Estate?..... So the bond market slide remains a negative and you have to find the positive story. Which I haven't at this stage.


NY JM  18:16:33 GMT - 02/11/2015  
Fed. Is never going to sell its bonds, only let them roll off IMHO


Livingston nh  17:58:42 GMT - 02/11/2015  
What lurks beneath? -- SPX just broke below the 15 min 21ma that it walked up all morning -- yesterday's opening gap at 2045 and depending on your crayon's thickness last week's gap ~ 2040 was either filled or not // the 10 yr auction has built in fair concession over the past few days so now we see if it tails -- there has been little comparable movement in the 2 yr as the debate over the Fed move wanders off into Wonderland // flight to safety may govern the treasurys (Ukraine and Greece tape bombs) for a few days but the BIG deal remains ECB QE next month and the Fed (esp. Yellen to Congress) as the Tea Leaf readers pounce

The Fed Balance Sheet is so top heavy over 10 yrs that it may panic as it tries (needs) to buy more short paper - it may need to go back into the commercial paper business if it continues with its "do-gooder" regs // surprising that some Fed folks don't get the movement in 10 yrs given the lock-up of long treasurys in the vault -- think about inversion if they panic before they pushed part of their portfolio into the market



HK RF@  17:28:57 GMT - 02/11/2015  

Nice Bond-yields a place to go when/if the St.Mkt will be hit.


NY JM  17:26:37 GMT - 02/11/2015  
ib not unless it reflects a stronger economy and expectations of rate hikes.


Paris ib  17:11:24 GMT - 02/11/2015  
A sell off on Treasuries is not supportive unless you take the view that it is OVER and Treasuries will now rally. Otherwise all you are doing is buying an asset that is going down in price. Which is not supportive. Capital inflows are not going to be attracted to a sliding market.


NY JM  17:07:51 GMT - 02/11/2015  
Higher US yields (10 yr above 2%) supporting USD


Paris ib  15:43:42 GMT - 02/11/2015  
red - I don't know if yields can break up through key levels yet. It could be yet another false move. My view is that the economy is weak and the 'risk', as always, lies in geopolitics and the flow of international funds. It seems to me that we have moved away from the day when bond yields just reflected domestic inflation and economic growth prospects. And there is so much geopolitical 'noise' around at the moment and so much to disrupt international capital flows that extreme caution is warranted. The U.S. bond market has failed to benefit from a stronger USD. That is not a good look. Something has to give.


london red  15:38:03 GMT - 02/11/2015  
paris, march 10 resting on dec 16/2014 high. been below but not closed under. nxt marker for me. if they can stay under 128.75 then double top in play for 126 handle. purely tech, so something is bound to go wrong during, has done so for best part of 10 year bull mkt. maybe retail sales will come in weak, there has been some hinting to it. or maybe it will be that easy a ride.


Paris ib  15:31:40 GMT - 02/11/2015  
It's Wednesday. The bond market avalanche started Friday in the States and the selling on the U.S. Treasury market has not abated.


dc CB  21:31:54 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Brian williams is the current Jesus...the media show
Crucify Him
No No he's such a nice guy.
and his daughter... a star on Girls...as a slut....but she was Great as Peter Pan in the Live NBC broadcast
is he a drinker? maybe he takes the "pipe"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

But here below presented the editorial pic of the week.

Wm Banzi7 Nails it.



Mtl JP  21:23:13 GMT - 02/06/2015  
dc CB 20:40 - that story is
1) old,
2) has the Brian Williams smell
(I shudder, shrivel and shrink to think the turkey is Canadian-born)


dc CB  20:40:19 GMT - 02/06/2015  
if it crashes and you log on and find your account balance at zero...It was the Ruskie Spies that stole yr money...Dammm Ruskies.

Ruskie Spies on Wall Street "they want what you have"



Paris ib  20:09:20 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Higher and higher yields....... not a good look.


london red  18:25:05 GMT - 02/06/2015  
CB i dont mind which way it goes, as long as it goes. as long as data continues as such, all relevant mkts will re-price in the hike (cos we priced it in then out lol) in their own way be in st spike term or lt strung out.


Paris ib  18:18:22 GMT - 02/06/2015  
CB - I just think bonds are the canary in the coal mine, that's all. :-)


Paris ib  18:17:44 GMT - 02/06/2015  
U.S. stocks and margin debt. This could be interesting. The powers-that-be now have nowhere to go but up with interest rates - monetary policy gets tigher from here - come what may, there is no more room for fiscal stimulus, global trade has pretty much died....

Margin Debt



dc CB  18:16:54 GMT - 02/06/2015  
OK then the Dow will only be UP 800pts on the week.
geeeshh you guys are never satisfied.:))


Paris ib  18:13:50 GMT - 02/06/2015  
red - and then? Is it on to sell the rally across the board in global stock markets? European markets look to have topped. Hard to say on the Nikkei - a possible. And if the U.S. turns over we have a full house.


london red  18:12:02 GMT - 02/06/2015  
yep march 10 done double top neck with some big downside now (2 figs) and st looks like it has an appointment with dec of last yr high, thats still half a point lower. stocks have held up surprising well but looks like hammer approaches into the close.


Paris ib  18:07:28 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Went out, came back... the avalanche gets worse. Snowflake theory of financial markets....


dc CB  16:49:36 GMT - 02/06/2015  
 
looking like a 1000pt Dow for the week. Yen is leading the way to Nirvana

think what CNBC would be like right now if this was a NEG 1000pt week.


Paris ib  16:18:21 GMT - 02/06/2015  
CB - if they can get away with stealth QE I don't suppose they care what rate it goes off at.


dc CB  16:17:13 GMT - 02/06/2015  
 
Weds 10Y auction may well go off at more than 2%


Paris ib  16:11:28 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Those NFP numbers certainly triggered an avalanche in the U.S. Treasury market. I guess they figure the main game is keeping the USD bid and they can come in and support bonds at a later date (QE by stealth of Belgium or whatever works). Still it looks like a bit of dangerous game to me. 2 and 3 year bond yields are getting murdered. If they ever do hike (I think they talk and talk and talk and delay the evil day) then the U.S. Treasury market is doomed.






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