WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 13-Jan Fri
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
15:00 US- preliminary University of Michigan
I was not sure what to expect from the Trump press conference Wednesday, but it certainly generated some substantial market volatility. The volatility appeared to stem from disappointment that the President-elect did not come up with statements that were supportive of the equity markets and this saw the USD fall after the markets had set up for a positive outcome.
Thurrsday's calendar is light again in the way of potential market-moving news. U.S. weekly Jobless Claims are always a key release for economists, but markets rarely find anything in the data at current levels to elicit price volatility.
Trump will be inaugurated as President one week from Friday, on January 20.
The top item of the week is retail sales data due on Friday. Next Monday, U.S. markets will be closed for the Martin Luther King Holiday. President-elect Trump will be inaugurated as President one week from Friday, on January 20.
Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar: Wed 26 Apr
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 27 Apr
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 28 Apr
08:30 GB- GDP
08:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of M Survey
Items likely to drive FX rates:
The current major focus of trade is the ECB meeting on Thursday. No rate changes are expected. The main focus will be on the ECB policy statement and on any hints of a future move in the direction of a policy nomalization. A normalization is inevitable, but this is all about timing. Always confirm any fundamental view with the techbicals, which often turn first.
EVENT RISK: Wednesday @ 12:00 GMT CA- Retail Sales. Markets always are sensitive to the strength of consumer demand.
EVENT RISK: Thursday @ 11:45 GMT EZ Central Bank decision. There was a reported leak from The ECB Tuesday saying no change from ECB is expected on Wednesday but they might change the wording of ECB's opening statement in June. Markets took these hints as EURUSD positive.
Uncertainty persists about the implementation of the Trump economic agenda. These doubts have been a weight on the USD, equities and bond yields.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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