as pointed out ZH:
This headline is wrong: *ALMOST ALL FED OFFICIALS WANTED TO HALT RUNOFF LATER THIS YEAR
BBG: *ALMOST ALL FED OFFICIALS WANTED TO HALT RUNOFF LATER THIS YEAR
vs
REUTERS (correct): ALMOST ALL PARTICIPANTS THOUGHT IT WOULD BE DESIRABLE TO ANNOUNCE PLAN TO STOP REDUCING BALANCE SHEET LATER THIS YEAR
haifa ac 19:20:40 GMT - 02/20/2019
"CONDITIONS HAD TIGHTENED SINCE SEPT AND GLOBAL GROWTH HAD MODERATED"
now in English, please.
GVI19:08:34 GMT - 02/20/2019
FOMC MINUTES FROM JAN 30TH MEETING: MEMBERS NOTED THAT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAD TIGHTENED SINCE SEPT AND GLOBAL GROWTH HAD MODERATED - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI17:58:05 GMT - 02/20/2019
GBPUSD pops higher
EU) EU want proof UK MPs back revised deal before leaders sign off; want MPs to vote on deal changes before final summit- UK is seeking changes to Irish back stop in Brexit deal - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI17:48:58 GMT - 02/20/2019
Ukraine Pres Poroshenko: Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine; a further escalation into a full-scale war is looming - comments at the UN - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI17:29:45 GMT - 02/20/2019
EU's Juncker: reiterates he does not expect Brexit breakthrough with PM May today - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI14:02:00 GMT - 02/20/2019
Belgium Feb Consumer Confidence: -7 v -6 prior - No revisions - Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 21:29:19 GMT - 02/19/2019
No trade off this so just for trivia:
New York City just banned discrimination based on hairstyles
Published: Feb 19, 2019 4:04 p.m.
jp - I think he is referring Gov't securities - the MBS mess still has maturity greater than 10 yrs // 2.64% on 10 yr makes next rate hike the Killer for yield curve adherents
Mtl JP 21:05:58 GMT - 02/19/2019
Federal Reserve Economic Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 2019 says $4.03 trillion on Feb 13th 2019
Williams estimated the so-called balance sheet rolloff could end when bank reserves get to “maybe $1 trillion of reserves or somewhat more than that,” about $600 billion less than current levels.
anyone have the current level handy ?
tia
Mtl JP 20:43:55 GMT - 02/19/2019
another theatrical FED yakker genious on display:
(another winner whose paycheck is a sure thing regardless)
looks like possibly -- maybe -- teresa might have gotten hold of junckers short hairs after he s been holding onto hers.
below makes me wonder ... someone may be wincing :
No one in Europe would oppose extension to Brexit talks-Britain
many news sources but approximately same headline:
EU will react swiftly if US hits it with car tariffs: Commission - CNBC.com
Mtl JP 13:09:54 GMT - 02/18/2019
Looks increasingly like Juncker and Barnier are ready to hold and pull tight Teresa's short hairs to the last minute with their constant repetitions that withdrawal deal is not going to be renegotiated
Mtl JP 12:15:44 GMT - 02/18/2019
some cute headlines:
-----------------------
Center-right to top EU poll; far-right surges: Survey
CNBC·1 hour ago
Brussels fears Italy’s instability and populism could spread to Spain
EL PAÍS in English·2 hours ago
Salvini reveals May elections will TOPPLE Brussels elite following shock Italy EXIT threat
Express.co.uk·1 day ago
dc CB 02:54:42 GMT - 02/18/2019
"I'm Ready for my CloseUP, Mr DeMille"
It will take YOU YEARS to Replace ME!!!!!
Yeh yeh yeh, that's wot that guy Cameroooon said....Wha Laaaaa - Misssey May. U R Topss OR Not Missy May Missy May...WOW she screwd-up today. Bye Bye Msiiey May.
Missy May
Missy May
Holly Sheit
She Screwd UP Today
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OR Tomorrow
It Is Destined To BE
Last Chance. U have NO Idea whot is waiting in the wings.
dc CB 02:45:52 GMT - 02/18/2019
GVI 23:23 GMT February 17, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:: Reply
UK) PM May office confirms she will return to Brussels
"I'm Ready for my CloseUP, Mr DeMille"
Rolling/Sound/ Mark
dc CB 02:45:52 GMT - 02/18/2019
GVI 23:23 GMT February 17, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:: Reply
UK) PM May office confirms she will return to Brussels
"I'm Ready for my CloseUP, Mr DeMille"
Rolling/Sound/ Mark
dc CB 02:45:51 GMT - 02/18/2019
GVI 23:23 GMT February 17, 2019
BREAKING NEWS:: Reply
UK) PM May office confirms she will return to Brussels
"I'm Ready for my CloseUP, Me DeMille"
Rolling/Sound/ Mark
Mtl JP 23:42:05 GMT - 02/17/2019
May is a sucker for embarrassment.
In some ways I do hope she does surprise me tho.
-
there is a small opening gap on gbpusd from 1.2888
GVI23:23:25 GMT - 02/17/2019
UK) PM May office confirms she will return to Brussels for more talks with EC President Juncker this coming week - May calls for party unity - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI22:39:04 GMT - 02/16/2019
Commerce Dept report supporting a 25% automobile tariff and other options could be released as soon as Sunday - press - Press reports say that the Commerce Dept's 'Section 232' review of the auto industry from a national security perspective is expected to give three recommendations for potential tariffs on auto imports: a 25% tariff, a 10% tariff (matching Europe's duty), or targeted duties that would only hit certain imports like electric vehicles and parts. - Source TradeTheNews.com
london red 18:53:15 GMT - 02/15/2019
this has been the erg position for some time, but the eu has said won't throw ireland under a bus and accept a time limited backstop.
euro highs likely limited to 11322-40 today
GVI Forex18:31:14 GMT - 02/15/2019
This also came out
Pro-brexit members of UK PM may’s government willing to accept five-year limit on backstop - bloomberg, citing sources
GVI Trader john 18:22:02 GMT - 02/15/2019
Baker Hughes Rig Count
NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1051 vs. 1049 (+2) prev.
Oil: 857 vs. 845 (+7) prev.
Canada: 224 vs. 240 ( -16) prev.
sterling higher initially on better data but later boosted by irish comments re helping may. empty rhetoric but enough to force some covering
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:27:40 GMT - 02/15/2019
No news. A mirror of yesterday, this time a weaker EURGBP is driving GBPUSD higher.
GVI16:31:17 GMT - 02/15/2019
New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q4 forecast to 2.2% from 2.4%; cuts Q1 forecast to 1.1% from 2.2% - News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.2 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q1 by 1.1 percentage points.- Negative surprises from retail sales, capacity utilization, and industrial production data drove the decrease.- The first 2018:Q4 GDP release, originally scheduled for January 30, has been postponed to February 28 as a result of the partial shutdown of the federal government. We will continue to backcast 2018:Q4 GDP growth until then. - Source TradeTheNews.com
USA GP 16:10:17 GMT - 02/15/2019
Is there any news out on gbp or a typical squeeze in this pair?
GVI Trader john 15:06:29 GMT - 02/15/2019
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index February, 2019
quite bearish talk there but shed load of options to expire higher up, in particular puts, in the money, so its causing a prob to hold euro down. if below 112 maybe can stick. otherwise looks tough to keep euro down for this reason.
08:25 (FR) ECB’s Coeure (France): Reiterates view that slowdown has been stronger and broader than expected
- Inflation path has been shallower, ECB has to adapt
- New TLTRO are possible and being discussed by General Council but needs to serve the right purpose
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI13:28:03 GMT - 02/15/2019
ECB’s Coeure (France): Reiterates view that slowdown has been stronger and broader than expected - Inflation path has been shallower, ECB has to adapt - New TLTRO are possible and being discussed by General Council but needs to serve the right purpose - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trader john 10:00:57 GMT - 02/15/2019
U.K. Retail Sales January 2019
-- NEWS ALERT --
x-fuel & autos
mm: +1.20% v +0.20% exp. vs. -1.30% (r -1.0% ) prev.
Headline
mm: +1.0% v +0.20% exp. vs. -0.90% (r -0.70% ) prev.
**"I think those local politicians, their careers are over," said Eric Benaim, chief executive officer of Modern Spaces, a Long Island City brokerage, who distributed pins and posters supporting the Amazon deal. "They’re responsible for losing 25,000 jobs."
**Amazon’s withdrawal "sends a terrible signal to the marketplace about the ability for companies to expand in New York," said Seth Pinsky, an executive vice president at RXR Realty. "The people who are younger and don’t remember the fact that New York was not always thriving, I think don’t understand that as bad as the problems of growth are, the problems of decline are even worse."
**"This definitely sets back the commercial market for Long Island City for sure," Sinsheimer said. "My partner and I looked at each other and we said, ‘Boy are we glad we don’t have anything that’s being negotiated in Long Island City right now because it’s got to be chaos.'"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
OCASIO-CORTEZ: AMAZON SCRAPPING NYC PLAN IS TRIUMPH FOR PEOPLE
(former bartender is representing New York's 14th Congressional district.)
There's room at the top they are telling you still
But first you must learn how to smile as you kill
If you want to be like the folks on the hill
A working class hero is something to be
A working class hero is something to be
If you want to be a hero well just follow me
If you want to be a hero well just follow me
(John Lennon 1970)
Sen Maj Leader McConnell (R-KY): Pres Trump says he's prepared to sign border security legislation; Trump has indicated he will also sign a national emergency declaration to raise more funding for the border wall - McConnell says he will support the emergency declaration- Senate will take votes on deal at 15:30ET - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI19:07:14 GMT - 02/14/2019
Trade talks remain far apart on some demands made by US; there have been discussions about removing some US tariffs on China - China press - China is reportedly proposed parallel talks aimed at resolving Huawei CFO’s extradition case when they met last week in DC - Reform verification mechanism could be a stumbling block in ending the trade war - Source TradeTheNews.com
dc CB 18:59:01 GMT - 02/14/2019
Anything is possible: today was the day a group of dedicated, everyday New Yorkers & their neighbors defeated Amazon’s corporate greed, its worker exploitation, and the power of the richest man in the world
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) February 14, 2019
dc CB 18:16:54 GMT - 02/14/2019
the next big market mover will come from the Tweeter in Chief.
After he and his staff, and it is assumed All the Members of the House of Representatives, Speed Read the 1000 page Funding Bill.
trade the Tweets. (ps if you don't think the CBS News McCabe 60 Minute Intv that will air Sunday, get's T in the the T-Rex mode, U haven't been paying attention)
Pres Trump - Link
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
london red 18:07:45 GMT - 02/14/2019
those two wont be smiling come d-day. but theres still hope since macron fancies the older woman so they may get a threesome on and work something out.
dc CB 18:00:10 GMT - 02/14/2019
who is giving her advice ?
guess
Mtl JP 17:57:59 GMT - 02/14/2019
MPs reject her motion by 303 votes to 258
- guardian
Mtl JP 17:54:56 GMT - 02/14/2019
so just her ego is embarassed - - sooooo stupid
not as if she c (w?) ould not see it coming
who is giving her advice ?
london red 17:48:56 GMT - 02/14/2019
gov defeated but...as expected given erg group abstaining, hence may was nowhere to be seen. mkt now looking for fresh new, unless 12730 taken, likely to see some covering as positions stale. however, until brexit path clear, sterling will stay under pressure.
dc CB 17:43:35 GMT - 02/14/2019
BrainYard is the New Bullard...but being that she's "Legally Blonde", her MOUTH(words) fail to have much effect on the AlgoRampers.
AMAZON SAYS IT WILL NOT BUILD A HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK AFTER MOUNTING OPPOSITION
wow: Mayor DeblazeIo and NY Gov Cuomo. both Democrats, Deblazer is really infact a socialist... LMAO.
fwiw, that "mounting opposition" comes from the New New New Maverick Democrats...like AOC. Big win for them. Hello 2020 elections. WOW
Mtl JP 16:46:44 GMT - 02/14/2019
better still
if the FED just dis-appeared altogether
meddlesome and playing favorites as it does
what a radical thought - not
GVI16:41:50 GMT - 02/14/2019
White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: there are glitches in the retail sales data; data was affected by govt shutdown - Hopefully now the Fed will step aside - Source TradeTheNews.com
____
What will these Mopes do if/when Retail Sales in Spring reflect the lower Income Tax refunds ??
dc CB 15:02:05 GMT - 02/14/2019
in a dream I'm having, a "reporter/Jurno-lyst" asks:
Mr. Kudlow, the FedFundsRate is steady at 2.4% so far this week. However, this morning the Yield on the 5Year Note had dropped to 2.63%. Isn't that .......
(CNBC: We have lost the audio portion of the feed. We are having technical problems. We will return to the presser.....)
Livingston nh 15:01:51 GMT - 02/14/2019
Last week's Fed report on Consumer Credit tipped today's "weakness" as December revolving Credit only increased by 20 bio (2% A/R) and Q4 18 was lower than Q4 17 -- FED not affected by Shutdown so watch Govvie revisions (unless Prez shoots himself in the FOOT and doesn't sign Bill)
GVI14:50:10 GMT - 02/14/2019
White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: there are glitches in the retail sales data; data was affected by govt shutdown - Hopefully now the Fed will step aside - Source TradeTheNews.com
NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +3.600 vs. +2.700 exp vs. +1.300 prev.
Distillates: +1.200 vs. -1.700 exp vs. -2.300 prev.
Gasoline: +0.400 vs. +0.800 exp vs. +0.500 prev.
CPI sour grapes --- "The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. All the major energy component indexes declined in January, with the gasoline index falling 5.5 percent."
The CHART shows a ~ 25% increase in oil price in January
Other components are similar at various times
GVI Trader john 13:40:55 GMT - 02/13/2019
U.S. CPI January 2019
ALERT
Headline:
m/m: 0.00% vs. +0.10% exp. v -0.10% pre
y/y: +1.60% vs. +1.50% exp. v +1.90% pre
Core:
y/y: +2.20% vs. +2.10% exp. v +2.20% pre
Prime Min May reportedly told business leaders that extending Article 50 process wouldn't serve any purpose - FT - Delaying Britain's departure from EU would not end Brexit uncertainty or get Parliament closer to passing withdrawal agreemen - Source TradeTheNews.com
london red 19:02:04 GMT - 02/12/2019
s&p and n100 both battling or close to 200dma
dc CB 18:40:18 GMT - 02/12/2019
Fed Chairman Powell Says U.S. Is Close to Maximum Employment
NY JM 18:06:12 GMT - 02/12/2019
EURGBP buying has been a flow (EURCHFand EURJPY as well) behind demand for EURUSD today.
london red 18:01:21 GMT - 02/12/2019
this bill or amendment is likely to pass if happens during end of month vote. however it is just theoretical unless the eu agrees to an extension. the uk can only unilaterally withdraw NOT extend. it will of course result in a rally for sterling but it will quickly fail once the eu demands either of withdrawal, ge or 2nd ref in return for extension.
dc CB 17:51:06 GMT - 02/12/2019
fyi - Fri is a Large QT day. $43+Bln in Notes and Bonds
will be interesting to see if there is a Yuge or little/no effect --- dollar, Yields, SToX.
(Soma in Aldous Huxley's Brave New World "All the advantages of Christianity and alcohol; none of their defects." "..there is always soma, delicious soma, half a gramme for a half-holiday, a gramme for a week-end, two grammes for a trip to the gorgeous East, three for a dark eternity on the moon...")
Without a no deal Brexit risk there is no incentive for the EU to negotiate.
GVI17:48:42 GMT - 02/12/2019
Labour MP Yvette Cooper publishes bill to force a Brexit delay if there is no deal - Source TradeTheNews.com
Livingston nh 16:51:08 GMT - 02/12/2019
The Fed still believes in the Phillips Curve and R* more than DATA - maybe happy w/ jobs and economy BUT the only thing that will FORCE a move is inflation // today's WSJ -"Whole Foods is raising prices again. Amazon cut prices after acquiring the grocer in 2017, but pressure from consumer-product makers has led Whole Foods to raise prices on hundreds of products."
Tomorrow's CPI number unlikely to benefit from OIL, January saw the beginning of the current rally in price -- 70% of the US is service based, generally immune to Productivity, the scourge of inflation
dc CB 16:31:06 GMT - 02/12/2019
FED'S POWELL SAYS DOES NOT FEEL PROBABILITY OF RECESSION IS AT ALL ELEVATED
dc CB 16:16:04 GMT - 02/12/2019
POWELL: THE ECONOMY IS GOOD
Mtl JP 15:42:53 GMT - 02/12/2019
jobs maybe strong BUT
jerome is unlikely to bite
and change his mind yet again
GVI Trader john 15:03:08 GMT - 02/12/2019
Jobs data remain strong.
GVI Trader john 15:01:22 GMT - 02/12/2019
December 2018 JOLTS Survey
ALERT
7.335 vs. 6.900 mn exp vs. 6.870 mn (r 7.166) prev.
There is no time. Barnier is quite explicit He likes having tea and a meeting cos it makes him look as if he is doing something but he has said countless times we are not going to reopen the withdrawal agreement but we will continue our discussion in the coming days.
He also said that something has to give that May should endorse a permanent customs union with the bloc - as proposed by the opposition Labour party - to break the impasse over their looming divorce.
Why should we give.. how about he does the job that he was mandated to do. Negotiate.... something that he has not done in all the talks and meetings
Livingston nh 12:49:08 GMT - 02/12/2019
Second "promise" to MPs goes by the board -
"PM to plead for more time to secure changes to draft exit treaty" - Fin'l TIMES
More Time !!
GVI12:40:09 GMT - 02/12/2019
PM May: Have clear told the EU what parliament wants on Brexit - Statement to House of Commons - Continuing to explore alternatives to the Irish backstop - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex21:58:55 GMT - 02/11/2019
16:18 (UK) UK govt Spokesperson: today's talks between EU Brexit Negotiator Barnier and UK Brexit Sec Barclay have ended; agreed to more talks to find a breakthrough on the Brexit impasse
- Barnier: reiterates will not reopen the deal, but talks will continue
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI14:24:46 GMT - 02/11/2019
EU's Moscovici: France and Italy must move together and respect each other,
- Avoiding EDP was in both Italy's and EU's interests- Italy would be going in right direction if it adopts reforms to increase productivity and competitiveness - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:23:16 GMT - 02/11/2019
News algos seem to have reacted to Brexit keywords, pushed GBPUSD higher only to see the rally fizzle.
EURUSD was pulled higher in sympathy but failed below an Amazing Trader resistance at 1.1322
Wed 30 Jan 2019 A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude A 14:00 US- Fed Decision Thu 31 Jan 2019 A 07:00 DE- Retail Sales A 08:55 DE- Employment A 10:00 EZ- GDP A 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 15:00 US- Personal Income/PCE Fri 1 Fed 2019 A all day Flash PMIs AA 08:30 US- Employment A 10:00 EZ- GDP
Mon 4 Feb 2019 A 09:30 GB- Construction PMI Tue 5 Feb 2019 A all day Service PMIs A 04:30 AU- Reserve Bank Of Australia Wed 6 Feb 2019 A 16:00 US- EIA Crude Thu 7 Feb 2019 A 12:00 GB- BOE Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 8 Feb 2019 A 13:30 CA- Employment
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